The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change

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Margery Richards
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1 The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change

2 IPCC vs NIPCC IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly working with various national governments) established in 1988: IPCC has issued climate change documents since NIPCC: Nongovernmental International Panel on climate change (over 60 scientists & specialists in various fields) established in 2007: First comprehensive report in 2009

3 Latest Climate Assessment March 2014 IPCC Assessment NIPPC Assessment Climate warming due to human-co2 will accelerate in future This will have harmful impacts on humanity Warming so far is modest & due to natural variability Modest warming so far has been beneficial to humanity Extreme Weather will increase: Sea levels will rise faster Grain yields could be affected in future Human health could be affected in a warmer world Extreme Weather Not on the rise: Sea levels have Stabilized Grain yields have doubled in developing countries Human health has improved in developing world

4 Discrepancy Between IPCC Projections and Climate Reality IPCC Projections Climate Reality Climate to warm by 1-1.5C from 1980 to Human-CO2 primary driver for warming Frequent heat waves globally Climate warmed between by about 0.5C: No additional warming since then Natural variability primary driver of climate Winters will be milder and shorter Heat waves have not increased in recent years Snow accumulation to decrease in future Winters have become much colder, longer and snowier in last six years Mid-continental droughts to be exacerbated: Floods may increase in some areas Droughts & floods appear cyclical, driven by natural variability

5 IPCC 2007

6 U.K Met office data

7 Spatial distribution of mean temperature Spatial and seasonal distribution of mean temperature varies significantly from region to region These variations are dictated more by large-scale flow patterns than by humanadded CO2 IPCC Documents DO NOT show NOR discuss these variations in detail!

8 Trends in Maximum Temp Canada Trends in Minimum Temp

10 Mechanics of extreme weather (EW) IPCC View Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas. More intense Trop Cyclones Increase in extreme rainfall events Decrease in cool days/night and frost in Mid-latitudes EW are on the rise now due to warming of climate. NIPPC View Extreme weather is an integral part of earth s climate: have occurred throughout recorded history of climate. ENSO phases can and do cause EW events world-wide Intense interaction between high-lat. cold air with low-lat. warm air produces EW events regionally/locally Present increase in EW is perception than reality!

11 IPCC 2007 Table of Extreme Weather Events

12 Heat Waves: North America & Elsewhere North American Prairies witnessed recurring heat waves & droughts in 1920s and 1930s! Summer 2003 Western Europe heat-wave was extreme; Dry soil moisture conditions were responsible ( NIPPC post 7 March 2012) Moscow heat-wave summer 2010 was due to atmospheric blocking (NIPPC post 13 July 2011) Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common & exhibit inter-annual variability Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases Recent heat waves over China appear to be due to drying of soil moisture

14 Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936

15 Highest Recorded Temperatures World s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept 1922 Canada s highest:45c Saskatchewan Canadian Prairies, 5 July 1937 US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913 Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India, 1930s Highest in China: 43.4C Central China 1 September 2006

16 Droughts-floods & ENSO A warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific brings summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies A cold event ( La Nina) is linked with drier summer on the Prairies. El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in Indian summer monsoon ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation produce dry/wet conditions over eastern Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and eastern Africa. ENSO is the single largest cause of global extreme precipitation events

17 PDO COLD MODE PDO WARM MODE Wolter Mostly El Ninos Mostly La Ninas

18 The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997

19 Accumulated Nino-4 SST wettest summers 6 Intermediate 6 Driest Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Months Accumulated Nino-4 SST anomalies before and during the wettest, intermediate and driest Julys over Saskatchewan for the period From Garnett et al 2006

20 20 Meteorological Drought Meteorological drought conditions for September August 2002 (a). Areas in red are record dry conditions. Contrast with conditions observed September 2005 August 2006 (b).

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Rapid warm-up in the Atlantic in 1995 brought an immediate doubling in number hurricanes and major hurricanes

21 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Rapid warm-up in the Atlantic in 1995 brought an immediate doubling in number hurricanes and major hurricanes (back to where we were in 1930s to 1960s) It is the basis of forecasts by Dr. Bill Gray (CSU) and others of enhanced activity for another decade or so

23 Major floods/droughts in Indian summer monsoon ( ) FLOODS 1818 (1036 mm) 1861 (1051 mm) 1874 (1033 mm) 1878 (1039 mm) 1892 (1050 mm) 1894 (1032 mm) 1916 (1034 mm) 1917 (1079 mm) 1933 (1042 mm) 1942 (1037 mm) 1956 (1007 mm) 1961 (1088 mm) 1971 (1002 mm) 1988 (1047 mm) Mean 1041mm Heaviest flood DROUGHTS 1823 (795 mm) 1824 (770 mm) 1832 (775 mm) 1840 (774 mm) 1844 (788 mm) 1848 (688 mm) 1851 (744 mm) 1860 (733 cm) 1864 (748 mm) 1868 (777 mm) 1877 (609 mm) 1899 (695 mm) 1918 (661 mm) 1920 (786 mm) 1941 (785 mm) 1965 (741 mm) 1972 (708 mm) 1979 (723 mm) 1982 (788 mm) 1986 (780 mm) 1987 (739 mm) 2002 (715 mm) 2009 (698 mm) Mean 739 mm Worst drought

24 Severe Drought

25 Floods in Pakistan and NW India

26 Extreme Precipitation Precipitation extremes have occurred irregularly in various regions without being forced by AGW! Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean: TC-Hyacinthe) Highest one month: July cm (Cherrapunji India) Highest one year: cm (Cherrapunji India) Recent studies on human link to extreme rainfall are without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm locally: UK, Europe, North America)

28 Recent Cold Season Extremes Winter 2013/14 was coldest, longest and snowiest over North America in 40 years! Parts of Japan & NE China saw cold winter with lots of snow! Winter 2012/13: Extremely cold over most of Europe: March 2013 broke several cold weather records! January 2013 was very cold over most of North and central India! Winter 2011/12: Coldest February 2012 in eastern Europe! Low temperature -40C and below in some localized regions! Winter 2009/10: Very cold over eastern & central Europe: several deaths in eastern Europe & Germany and major disruption in transportation due to heavy snow: Siberia suffered its coldest winter ever! North India witnessed colder and longer winter, with several hundred deaths! Winter 2007/08: snowiest winter in Northern Hemisphere since 1966: Sea Ice between Greenland & eastern Canada was highest in 15 years. Heavy snow in China! Buenos Aires (SA) recorded several cm of snow (July 2007) after 85 years! Winter 2005/06: Very Cold most of Europe! Winter 2002/03: Severe cold in eastern Europe, 200 deaths in Poland: Long cold spells in North India, Bangladesh & Vietnam; several hundred deaths due to long cold spells!

30 Solar Link to Colder Winters Lockwood et al (2010) proposed mechanisms: Enhanced cooling thru increase in maritime clouds via cosmic ray flux Solar modulation of NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) via stratospheric wind patterns Increased frequency of blocking events in eastern North Atlantic Increased frequency of (north) easterly winds producing colder winters in eastern Europe and further into western Europe

33 Summary & Conclusions The IPCC GW science is increasingly at odds with climate reality! There has been NO warming of earth s climate in last 17 years! Climate Models predict excessive warming! Cold Weather Extremes (possibly linked to solar variability) are on the rise worldwide! EW (extreme weather) events _ like heat waves, droughts, floods etc_ show NO increasing trend anywhere! In the Conterminous US, tornado activity and damage are at record low! Also hurricane/tropical cyclone activity is at record low worldwide Indian/Asian Monsoon droughts and floods have occurred irregularly! Grain yields in south Asia have more than doubled in last 25 years! The modest present warming of the earth s climate is beneficial to world humanity!

Climate Change & Extreme Weather: Perception vs Reality

Climate Change & Extreme Weather: Perception vs Reality Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change Are Extreme Weather (EW) events on the rise? A short answer: NO! A long answer: NO! NO!