# ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING. GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13

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1 ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13

2 Agenda for February 3 Assignment 3: Due on Friday Lecture Outline Numerical modelling Long-range forecasts Oscillations Discussion of A1 and A2

3 Numerical weather forecasting Requirements: Conceptual framework - set of mathematical equations to predict temperature, pressure (height), moisture, wind Initialization data Fast computers Four step process

4 Step 1: Data acquisition Synoptic Data Sources Radiosondes Dropsondes Met stations Ships Broad scale and simultaneous Asynoptic Data Sources Radar Satellites Aircraft Drifting buoys Localized and/or infrequent

5 Step 2: Computer analysis Check for accuracy and consistency data onto a grid points in space where each variable has a distinct value Calculate a grid of atmospheric variables Pressure, temperature, humidity, wind velocity Produce a chart (map) for a given instant in time 00 UT, 06 UT, 12 UT q Data onto a grid points in space where each variable has a distinct value

6 Step 3: Computer forecast Rapidly resolve physical equations Model the flows of mass and heat to predict changes in the grid over time Produce charts of the future Requires robust theories about atmospheric phenomena A&B: Figure 13-1

7 Step 4: Forecast dissemination Regional centres interpret and disseminate forecast discussion to local weather offices Science and art in weather forecasts An upper level trough will continue moving from the Prairies through Ontario. Likely clearing trend from west to east... cold air advection behind the front will help maintain/develop low level stratus. Flurries are possible

8 Computational power

9 Limits to Numerical Forecasting Low resolution e.g. Great Lakes poorly resolved Sometimes 100 km grids Modelling of physical processes e.g. clouds, ocean eddies Inaccuracy and sparseness of initialization data Intrinsic non-linearity and chaotic behaviour theoretical limit to this approach is 2 weeks

10 Long range forecasting 1960s Edward Lorentz Chaos theory Placed a limit of 2 weeks on weather forecasting The butterfly effect Small changes in initial conditions lead to a very different end state

11 Double compound pendulum

12 Long range forecasting Climatology Memory Low frequency variations: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

13 Example: Tropical cyclones Hurricane n North American term (Atlantic hurricanes, Eastern Pacific hurricanes) Typhoon n term used in Western Pacific Cyclone n Term used in Australia and in the Indian Ocean

14 Dynamics How do hurricanes form? n Tropical storms fueled by sea surface temperatures and latent heat release n Observationally it has been noted that 26.5 C (80 F) is the threshold for tropical storm formation n This is a necessary but not sufficient condition for tropical storms to form

15 Tropical cyclone lifespan SSTs Warmer the surface provides more moisture and energy Upper wind structure ENSO enhances hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific while suppressing them in the Atlantic QBO quasi-biennial oscillation of the winds in the stratosphere Landfall Cuts off cyclone from both sources of energy (SSTs and water vapour) Increases surface roughness

16 Forecasting Hurricanes Colorado State University (CSU) University College London (UCL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Factors affecting hurricanes ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) QBO (Quasi-biennial Oscillation) SSTs (sea surface temperatures) Sahel rainfall Dr. William Gray

17 Hurricane Forecasting Statistical methods employed Predicts the number of tropical storms for the next season n No details on location or precise timing Where is the memory located? Ocean ENSO, SST Atmosphere QBO (upper troposphere) Let s see how well it works

18 Figure above Atlantic Hurricanes: 2015

19 Western Pacific Typhoons: 2015

20 Hurricane Sandy " October 25, 2013 " Sandy peaks at Category 3 " Landfall in Cuba " October 30 " Tropical storm " Landfall in New Jersey Hurricane Sandy

21 European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts " Independent intergovernmental organisation " Supported by 21 European Member States " World's largest archive of numerical weather prediction data " Global weather forecasts to 15 days and seasonal forecasts to 12 months " prediction of Hurricane Sandy in October 2012 making landfall on the East Coast of the United States seven days before it happened

22 Tropical Storm tracks 2015

23 Hurricane-strength storms: 2015 compared to average Basin 1 an 2 3 to 5 Total Average Atlantic NH East Pacific* NH West Pacific* NH Indian SH Indian SH West Pacific * Active TS Global

24 Scientific Community divided William Gray Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) Kerry Emanuel Global Warming

25 What is AMO? Not well understood Variation in the three dimensional circulation of the Atlantic Ocean Leads to changes in heat transport Warm temperatures in 1940s and 1950s correlated with more frequent hurricanes

26 Impacts Whether the culprit is the AMO or global warming (or both) the hurricane driver is warmer SSTs Increases the frequency in which minor hurricanes develop into major ones

27 ENSO El Niño / Southern Oscillation 4 to 7 year oscillation in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures and associated changes in atmospheric circulation Cause is unknown, although it is linked to changes in the Asian monsoon season

28 The Normal Walker Circulation A&B: Figure 8-27

29 Walker Circulation Easterly trade winds Low pressure, rising air and heavy rain over western Pacific Winds push surface water away from SA, causing cold water to well up from below Particularly intense years are called La Niña Ahrens: Fig

30 ENSO Southern Oscillation Winds weaken or reverse High pressure, subsiding air, drought over western Pacific El Niño Upwelling in eastern Pacific stops, surface temperatures rise

31 Average sea surface temperature differences from normal during the November through March period for eight El Niño episodes. A&B: Figure 8-29

32 Impacts of ENSO Teleconnections: Interactions between weather patterns in different parts of the world Jet streams Pushed further north over the Pacific Weather in Canada More warm air masses Normal Year El Nino

33 Teleconnections Ahrens: Fig

34

35 Impacts of El Niño A&B: Figure 8-35

36 Average sea surface temperature differences from normal during the November through March period for eight La Niña episodes. A&B: Figure 8-31

37 ENSO Index Strong positives are El Niño Strong negatives are La Niña Source: NOAA

38 North Atlantic Oscillation Pressure variations in the North Atlantic Typified by difference in Icelandic low and Azores high Affects precipitation over Eastern Canada and Western Europe

39

40

41 Long range forecasting Memory: ENSO NAO SST Ice cover Routinely produced by Environment Canada using canonical correlation analysis (CCA)

42 February temperature forecast

43 Coming up Global biogeochemical cycles How chemical transport is controlled by climate

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