Climate Change & Extreme Weather: Perception vs Reality
|
|
|
- Ethelbert Fields
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Climate Change & Extreme Weather: Perception vs Reality Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change
2 Are Extreme Weather (EW) events on the rise? A short answer: NO! A long answer: NO! NO! NO! EW events have always occurred in the earth s climate! Present concern re: EW/Global Warming (GW) link is more media hype than reality!
3 IPCC vs NIPCC IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body of scientists (mostly working with various national governments) established in 1988: IPCC has issued climate change documents since NIPCC: Nongovernmental International Panel on climate change (several dozen scientists & specialists in various fields) established in 2007: First comprehensive report in 2009
4 Mechanics of extreme weather (EW) IPCC View NIPPC View Warmer climate holds more moisture: more rains & floods in some areas; droughts/heat waves in other areas. More intense Trop Cyclones Increase in extreme rainfall events Decrease in cool days/night and frost in Mid-latitudes Extreme weather is an integral part of earth s climate: have occurred throughout recorded history of climate. ENSO phases can and do cause EW events world-wide Intense interaction between high-lat. cold air with low-lat. warm air produces EW events regionally/locally EW are on the rise now due to warming of climate. Present increase in EW is perception than reality!
5 IPCC 2007 Table of Extreme Weather Events
6 WWE (Warm Weather Extremes) vs CWE (Cold Weather Extremes) IPCC Projections WWE ( heat waves, droughts, rainstorms & floods) to increase in future. Milder winters with less snow. Fewer CWE in future. Climate Reality WWE have NOT increased anywhere. CWE (colder & longer winters, heavy snows) have increased worldwide in last 7-8 years.
7 Media hype about GW/EW link
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15 Mean Global Temperature variation
16
17
18 Failure of Climate Models
19
20 Heat Waves: North America & Elsewhere North America witnessed recurring heat waves in 1920s and 1930s! Highest max temperatures in the 1920s 1930s! 2012 & 2016 US summer heat-wave were mild compared to those of 1930s! Summer 2003 Western Europe heat-wave was extreme; Dry soil moisture conditions were responsible Moscow heat-wave summer 2010 was due to atmospheric blocking Pre-Monsoon (April-May) heat waves over India are common & exhibit inter-annual variability Heat waves over Australia linked to ENSO phases
21
22 Deadliest heat wave in Canada; 1100 people died July 1936
23 Highest Recorded Temperatures World s highest: 57.8C (136F) Libya 13 Sept 1922 Canada s highest:45c Saskatchewan Canadian Prairies, July 1937: Toronto highest 41C July 1936 US highest: 56.7C (134F) California 10 July 1913 Highest on Indian subcontinent: ~128F NW India, 1930s Highest in China: 43.4C : September 2006
24 Thunderstorms & Tornadoes Highest thunderstorm/tornado activity in US during 1920s thru 1940s Deadliest tornado outbreak: 18 March 1925: 747 dead in 3 mid-western States April : 216 deaths in Mississippi Largest 2-day outbreak; 3-4 April 1974, over 140 tornadoes Fewer thunderstorms/tornadoes in last five years
25
26 Hurricanes, Typhoons & Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes & Typhoons show inter-decadal variability, with NO long-term trend! Hurricanes, in fact, have declined in last five years. Bay of Bengal tropical cyclones show inter-annual variability; NO trend! Elsewhere (Australia, South Indian Ocean) NO long-term trend!
27 Extreme Precipitation Extreme precipitation often linked to tropical cyclones/hurricanes: Also in monsoonal climate Highest 24-hr: 18Jan1966; 182cm (south Indian Ocean: TC-Hyacinthe) Highest one month: July cm (Cherrapunji India) Highest one year: cm (Cherrapunji India) Recent studies on human link to extreme rainfall are without any merit! (rainfall amounts only ~50-150mm locally: UK, Europe, North America)
28 Droughts-floods & ENSO Warm events (El Nino) in the equatorial Pacific bring summer rains over US/Canadian Prairies Cold events ( La Nina) linked with drier summer on the Prairies. El Nino/La Nina linked to droughts/floods in Indian summer monsoon ENSO and PDO-Pacific Decadal Oscillation produce dry/wet conditions over eastern Australia, Indonesia, southeast China and eastern Africa. ENSO is the single largest cause of global extreme precipitation events Spring flooding in Canada due to snow melt
29
30 The 1997/98 El Nino structure at about Sep 1997
31 Summer Monsoon: India and South Asia Indian/South Asian Monsoon impacts over two billion people every year Major droughts/floods in summer monsoon have occurred irregularly in a 200-year data set: ENSO phase a major driver of south Asian monsoon. Drought/Flood: Often in Back-to-back years (Ex: 1918/17 : 1941/42: 1987/88: 2009/2010)
32 Major Flood Years 1892, 1917, 1933, 1961, 1970, 1975 Major drought years 1868, 1877, 1899, 1918, 1951, 1972, 1987
33 Severe Drought
34 Floods in Pakistan and NW India
35 ARE WINTER WEATHER EXTREMES ON THE RISE?
36 Are Winter Extremes on the RISE? Yes! since the new millennium Europe: 2002/03, 2005/06, 2009/10, 2012 & 2018 North America: 2007/08, 2013/14 & 2017/18 China & Japan: 2008 and 2013
37 Valdez, Alaska received 387 CM of snow in early January 2012
38
39 Snowstorm in the US January 2016
40
41 Monday, January 9, 2017
42 January 5, 2018
43 February, 6, 2018 to February 27, 2018 From Moscow to Italy
44 Heavy Snowfalls & Extreme Cold since February: Eastern Europe; low temperature -40C, Danube River frozen till early June 2013: Heavy snows in Germany & northern France: 50-km long traffic jams on Auto-Bahn: March 2013 coldest in Germany & parts of Poland 2013/14: Coldest, longest and snowiest winter over US/Canada in 40 years. Low temp -40C in parts of western Canada: Buffalo (US) received 100cm of snow November : Coldest February in Toronto; low temp at -35C for several days: Boston USA recorded highest snow, 300cm: Snow avalanches killed 200 people in Afghanistan. 2016: Major snowstorm in Washington US: Also in Taiwan, heavy snow and extreme cold ( January) heavy snows in Canadian Prairies (October)
45 Heavy snows & Extreme cold (Contd) 2017: Winter storm batters US NE & SE; heavy snow In US Southeast; Eastern Europe suffered extreme Cold with 55 deaths; also Italy saw extreme cold With several deaths. 2018: Longest & coldest winter over North America in 40 years. Europe witnessed extreme cold in February.
46
47
48 Economic Losses due to CWE: Preliminary Estimates 2012/13: Europe: ~ US$ 50 billion 2013/14: US/Canada ~125 billion: Japan/China ~20 billion 2015: US:~25 Billion; Canada ~5-10 Billion 2016: US/Canada ~10 billion; Taiwan/China ~5 billion 2017: UK & Europe: ~2-5 Billion; US:~5-7 Billion; Canada: ~3-5 Billion 2018: Europe: ~ 10 Billion: US/Canada ~ 25 Billion
49 Notable EW events of (when mean temperature declined) 1961 summer monsoon over India: Heaviest floods everywhere! Also East Pakistan (Now Bangladesh) witnessed two powerful cyclones in May! Over 20,000 deaths India & Pakistan! Winter : One of the Coldest over most of Europe! Rivers in central Europe frozen for weeks! August 1969: Hurricane Camille (category 4-5) struck US Gulf Coast killing over 250 people! November 1970: tropical cyclone hit Bangladesh killing over 250,000 people! Largest human fatalities in ONE SINGLE WEATHER DISASTER April : largest (147) outbreak of tornadoes in US Midwest ever! Over 250 deaths; property damage over US$ 1 billion December 1976-January 1977: Very cold over most of North America! Southeast US witnessed long cold winter
50 Beneficial Impacts of More CO2
51 Higher CO2 Levels have boosted grain yield worldwide
52
53
54 CONCLUSIONS The link between GW and EW is more perception than reality There is NO increase in EW anywhere at present Global weather-related disaster losses have declined significantly in last few years. Cold Weather Extremes have increased in last six years; this is at odds with IPCC projections of milder winters. Increasing Co2 levels have beneficial impacts Reducing CO2 levels will be expensive and will have NO impact on earth s climate.
55 Finally, a lighter side of Global Warming
56
The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change
The Failed Science of Global warming: Time to Re-consider Climate Change Madhav Khandekar Expert Reviewer IPCC 2007 Climate Change IPCC vs NIPCC IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; A UN Body
Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ):
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2015-2016. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
Winter. Here s what a weak La Nina usually brings to the nation with tempseraures:
2017-2018 Winter Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2017-2018. El Nino /
Page 1 of 5 Home research global climate enso effects Research Effects of El Niño on world weather Precipitation Temperature Tropical Cyclones El Niño affects the weather in large parts of the world. The
Here s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
Chapter 1 Climate in 2016
Chapter 1 Climate in 2016 1.1 Global climate summary Extremely high temperatures were frequently observed in many regions of the world, and in particular continued for most of the year in various places
How strong does wind have to be to topple a garbage can?
How strong does wind have to be to topple a garbage can? Imagine winds powerful enough to pick up a truck and toss it the length of a football field. Winds of this extreme sometimes happen in a tornado.
Untitled.notebook May 12, Thunderstorms. Moisture is needed to form clouds and precipitation the lifting of air, or uplift, must be very strong
Thunderstorms Moisture is needed to form clouds and precipitation the lifting of air, or uplift, must be very strong cold air and warm air must mix; creating an active circulation system that has both
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 4, 2019 Summary: December was mild and dry over much of the west, while the east was much warmer than
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 2, 2019 Summary: Dramatic flip from a mild winter to a top five coldest February on record in many locations
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions
What a Hurricane Needs to Develop
Weather Weather is the current atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature, wind speed, wind direction, cloud cover, precipitation, relative humidity, air pressure, etc. 8.10B: global patterns of atmospheric
Warm Up Vocabulary Check
Warm Up Vocabulary Check Surface current Coriolis Effect global winds upwelling Gulf Stream deep current climate El Nino convection current continental deflection 1.The apparent curving of the path of
What a Hurricane Needs to Develop
Massive Storms! Hurricanes What a Hurricane Needs to Develop Warm tropical water - at least 80 F High Humidity Light wind Low Pressure Area Form between 5 and 20 latitude Hurricane Ingredients Hurricane
Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College August 5, 2018 Summary: July 2018 will likely go down as one of the top five warmest July s on record for many
EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS VS. DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEED FOR CRITICAL REASSESSMENT
EE 16/2_proof 22/03/05 11:34 am Page 307 307 EXTREME WEATHER TRENDS VS. DANGEROUS CLIMATE CHANGE: A NEED FOR CRITICAL REASSESSMENT Madhav L Khandekar Consulting Meteorologist, Unionville, Ontario CANADA,
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College November 7, 2017 Summary: October was relatively cool and wet north, while warm and very dry south. Dry conditions
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College April 4, 2018 Summary: A near Miracle March played out bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the majority
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2018 Summary: Much of Washington, Oregon, coastal California and the Bay Area and delta region
Massive Storms! 8.10C Identify the role of the oceans in the formation of weather systems such as hurricanes
Massive Storms! 8.10C Identify the role of the oceans in the formation of weather systems such as hurricanes Instructional page: Each person in group will take on one portion or set of questions: Each
Name: Date: Hour: Comparing the Effects of El Nino & La Nina on the Midwest (E4.2c)
Purpose: Comparing the Effects of El Nino & La Nina on the Midwest (E4.2c) To compare the effects of El Nino and La Nina on the Midwest United States. Background Knowledge: The El Nino-Southern Oscillation
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
2011 Year in Review TORNADOES
2011 Year in Review The year 2011 had weather events that will be remembered for a long time. Two significant tornado outbreaks in April, widespread damage and power outages from Hurricane Irene in August
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
El Niño / Southern Oscillation
El Niño / Southern Oscillation Student Packet 2 Use contents of this packet as you feel appropriate. You are free to copy and use any of the material in this lesson plan. Packet Contents Introduction on
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT NESC, Saratoga, NY
Extreme Weather and Climate Change: the big picture Alan K. Betts Atmospheric Research Pittsford, VT http://alanbetts.com NESC, Saratoga, NY March 10, 2018 Increases in Extreme Weather Last decade: lack
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long period of time Many factors influence weather & climate
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S.
Extreme Rainfall in the Southeast U.S. David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University March 7, 2016 Causes of Extreme Rainfall
KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT
T KUALA LUMPUR MONSOON ACTIVITY CENT 2 ALAYSIAN METEOROLOGICAL http://www.met.gov.my DEPARTMENT MINISTRY OF SCIENCE. TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIO Introduction Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the tropical
MPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN
MPACT OF EL-NINO ON SUMMER MONSOON RAINFALL OF PAKISTAN Abdul Rashid 1 Abstract: El-Nino is the dominant mod of inter- annual climate variability on a planetary scale. Its impact is associated worldwide
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long
Weather Atmospheric condition in one place during a limited period of time Climate Weather patterns that an area typically experiences over a long period of time Many factors influence weather & climate
What Is Climate Change?
1 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Climate Change 101 Series About this topic. The blog-posts entitled Climate Change 101 Series are designed for a general audience and
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University November 5, 2016 After a year where we were seemingly off by a month in terms of temperatures (March
L.O Students will learn about factors that influences the environment
Name L.O Students will learn about factors that influences the environment Date 1. At the present time, glaciers occur mostly in areas of A) high latitude or high altitude B) low latitude or low altitude
JEFF JOHNSON S Winter Weather Outlook
JEFF JOHNSON S 2017-2018 Winter Weather Outlook TABLE OF CONTENTS ABOUT THE AUTHOR Components of the seasonal outlook... 2 ENSO state/ocean temperatures... 3 Sub-seasonal outlooks... 4 Forecast models...
Figure 1. Carbon dioxide time series in the North Pacific Ocean (
Evidence #1: Since 1950, Earth s atmosphere and oceans have changed. The amount of carbon released to the atmosphere has risen. Dissolved carbon in the ocean has also risen. More carbon has increased ocean
Issue Overview: El Nino and La Nina
Issue Overview: El Nino and La Nina By Bloomberg, adapted by Newsela staff on 09.28.16 Word Count 748 TOP: A Category 5 typhoon in the Pacific Ocean. BOTTOM: Graphics courtesy of the U.S. National Oceanic
Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 2000 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: January started on a mild note,
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
Your Creekside at Bethpage Weather with 2017 Forecasts. By Kevin Walls
Your Creekside at Bethpage Weather with 2017 Forecasts By Kevin Walls Lets discuss. What are the Weather Extremes? Why are our wind patterns always the same? What are the causes of our weather patterns?
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
IPCC WG1 FAQ What is the IPCC? Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate Preliminary conclusions for 2018 and WMO Greenhouse Bulletin
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate Preliminary conclusions for 2018 and WMO Greenhouse Bulletin Dr Elena Manaenkova Deputy Secretary General World Meteorological Organisation Statement on
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2017 Summary: Typical variability in September temperatures with the onset of fall conditions evident
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 1, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 1, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com FEBRUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The February contiguous U.S. temperature
2018 Year in Review for Central and Southeast Illinois By: Chris Geelhart, Meteorologist National Weather Service, Lincoln IL
By: Chris Geelhart, Meteorologist National Weather Service, Lincoln IL While 2018 featured some significant out-of-season weather, including below zero temperatures in April and 90-degree highs in early
SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION
SEASONAL CLIMATE PREDICTION David Walland Australian Bureau of Meteorology WMO RA-V Seminar on Climate Services Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011 Overview Major climate Drivers in the region
South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6)
Sixth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 19-22 April 2015 Consensus Statement Summary Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season
The Pennsylvania Observer
The Pennsylvania Observer April 2, 2010 March 2010 Pennsylvania Weather Recap Prepared by: Katelyn Johnson March did come in as a lion cub this year. The 1 st proved to be a calm day; however most of Pennsylvania
Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt
Impacts of Climate on the Corn Belt Great Lakes Crop Summit 2015 2015 Evelyn Browning Garriss Conclusions Climate change is not linear. It ebbs and flows. Recent polar volcano eruptions created a cool
Climate Variability and El Niño
Climate Variability and El Niño David F. Zierden Florida State Climatologist Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies The Florida State University UF IFAS Extenstion IST January 17, 2017 The El
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average
Presentation Overview. Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future. Global Energy Balance. What is climate?
Southwestern Climate: Past, present and future Mike Crimmins Climate Science Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Env. Science & Arizona Cooperative Extension The University of Arizona Presentation
SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: October 21, 2013 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature
Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx
Winter 2015-16 Forecast Allan Huffman RaleighWx Disclaimer Seasonal forecasting is difficult and you are always learning. I attempt to look at all factors I understand and have seen correlate in the past
Weather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season
Weather Outlook: 2015 Growing Season Leon F. Osborne Chester Fritz Distinguished Professor Regional Weather Information Center University of North Dakota Grand Forks, North Dakota Why Should We Be Concerned?
Storms. Tropical Cyclone?
Storms Tropical Cyclone? Tropical Cyclone: low pressure storm forming in the tropics (Start as Thunder Storms). They form around a center, producing heavy winds and rains. Storms What strengthens a Tropical
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the
Name. El Nino. by Cindy Grigg
Name El Nino by Cindy Grigg Answer the following questions BEFORE you read this book. It is okay if you do not know as much as you thought. Do the best you can! 1. What do you already know about El Nino?
1 What Is Climate? TAKE A LOOK 2. Explain Why do areas near the equator tend to have high temperatures?
CHAPTER 17 1 What Is Climate? SECTION Climate BEFORE YOU READ After you read this section, you should be able to answer these questions: What is climate? What factors affect climate? How do climates differ
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 5, 2016 The month of July saw the continued flip, flop of the western US temperatures. It was warm
Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 2001 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sws.uiuc.edu Maria Peters, Weather Observer January: After a cold and snowy December,
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (February 2018) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for January 2018 1.1 The prevailing Northeast monsoon conditions over Southeast Asia strengthened in January
Champaign-Urbana 1998 Annual Weather Summary
Champaign-Urbana 1998 Annual Weather Summary ILLINOIS STATE WATER SURVEY Audrey Bryan, Weather Observer 2204 Griffith Dr. Champaign, IL 61820 wxobsrvr@sparc.sws.uiuc.edu The development of the El Nìno
Global Weather Trade Winds etc.notebook February 17, 2017
Global Weather 1 north pole northern hemisphere equator southern hemisphere south pole 2 We have seasons because of the Earth's tilt The seasons are opposite in the northern and southern hemispheres winter
Unit 2 Text Worksheet # 2
Unit 2 Text Worksheet # 2 Read Pages 74-77 1. Using fig. 5.1 on page 75 identify: Climatic Region the most widespread climatic region in the low latitudes two climatic subregions with dry conditions for
ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING. GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13
ATMOSPHERIC MODELLING GEOG/ENST 3331 Lecture 9 Ahrens: Chapter 13; A&B: Chapters 12 and 13 Agenda for February 3 Assignment 3: Due on Friday Lecture Outline Numerical modelling Long-range forecasts Oscillations
National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: September, 2007 Wildland Fire Outlook September through December 2007 Significant fire
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods.
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods. REBUTTAL Our use of fossil fuels to power our civilization is not causing droughts or floods. NOAA found there is
A summary of the weather year based on data from the Zumwalt weather station
ZUMWALT PRAIRIE WEATHER 2016 A summary of the weather year based on data from the Zumwalt weather station Figure 1. An unusual summer storm on July 10, 2016 brought the second-largest precipitation day
2018 REVIEW OF DISASTER EVENTS
2018 REVIEW OF DISASTER EVENTS Supplementary Information* BRUSSELS, 24 January, 2019 In 2018, there were 281 climate-related and geophysical events recorded in the EM-DAT (International Disaster Database)
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
Weather Update. Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018
Weather Update Flood Seminars Natalie Hasell Meteorological Service of Canada Mid-March 2018 Table of contents Current conditions Temperatures Precipitation El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Forecasts
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP,
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: SEPTEMBER 19, 2016 Steven A. Root, CCM, Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2016 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The contiguous
Hurricanes. April 14, 2009
Tropical Weather & Hurricanes Chapter 15 April 14, 2009 Tropical meteorology Tropics characterized by seasonal wet and drier periods- wet when sun is nearly overhead at noon and inter-tropical convergence
Tropical Moist Rainforest
Tropical or Lowlatitude Climates: Controlled by equatorial tropical air masses Tropical Moist Rainforest Rainfall is heavy in all months - more than 250 cm. (100 in.). Common temperatures of 27 C (80 F)
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods. REBUTTAL
Claim: Global warming is increasing the magnitude and frequency of droughts and floods. REBUTTAL Our use of fossil fuels to power our civilization is not causing droughts or floods. NOAA found there is
Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10
Wind: Global Systems Chapter 10 General Circulation of the Atmosphere General circulation of the atmosphere describes average wind patterns and is useful for understanding climate Over the earth, incoming
Please be ready for today by:
Please be ready for today by: 1. HW out for a stamp 2. Paper and pencil/pen for notes 3. Be ready to discuss what you know about El Nino after you view the video clip What is El Nino? El Nino Basics El
Percentage of normal rainfall for August 2017 Departure from average air temperature for August 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 219, August 2017 Current climate August 2017 Overall, mean sea level pressure was lower than normal over and to the west of New Zealand during August while higher than normal
2013 Summer Weather Outlook. Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care
2013 Summer Weather Outlook Temperatures, Precipitation, Drought, Hurricanes and why we care Role of the ERCOT Meteorologist Forecasts Develop temperature input for hourly load forecasts (next day, days
Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America
Impacts of the April 2013 Mean trough over central North America By Richard H. Grumm National Weather Service State College, PA Abstract: The mean 500 hpa flow over North America featured a trough over
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Dr Linda Hirons and Dr Nicolas Klingaman August 2015 This report has been produced by University of Reading and National Centre for Atmospheric Science for Evidence on
1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment
1990 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Impacts Assessment Although the variability of weather and associated shifts in the frequency and magnitude of climate events were not available from the
Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013)
Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department
Winter Forecast. Allan Huffman RaleighWx
Winter 2014-15 Forecast Allan Huffman RaleighWx Winter 2014-15 Combination of weak/moderate El Nino/+PDO/-QBO and well above average snow cover and snow cover increase this Fall in Siberia point to a winter
Ocean cycles and climate ENSO, PDO, AMO, AO
Ocean cycles and climate ENSO, PDO, AMO, AO 3 2.5 2 enso-index 1.5 1 0.5 0-0.5-1 enso 3.4 -index - 1996 to 1999-1.5 1996 1997 1998 1999 Bob Tisdale Bob Tisdale Bob Tisdale ENSO mechanisms animation http://esminfo.prenhall.com/science/geoanimations/animations/26_ninonina.html
PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK 2017/18 Joseph D Aleo, WeatherBell Analytics Seasonal forecasting is challenge for many reasons. There are many drivers
PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK 2017/18 Joseph D Aleo, WeatherBell Analytics Seasonal forecasting is challenge for many reasons. There are many drivers that influence winters. When they synchronize, forecasters
Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS Gerald Bell Meteorologist, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA,
CLIMATE. UNIT TWO March 2019
CLIMATE UNIT TWO March 2019 OUTCOME 9.2.1Demonstrate an understanding of the basic features of Canada s landscape and climate. identify and locate major climatic regions of Canada explain the characteristics
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: May 15, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: May 15, 2014 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com APRIL 2014 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature for