What Is Climate Change?

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1 1 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Climate Change 101 Series About this topic. The blog-posts entitled Climate Change 101 Series are designed for a general audience and beginning students of climate change who may or may not have a background in climate science. Our central goal is to explain complex scientific concepts in popular language, minimizing the use of technical terms and statistical analyses. In this article, we have provided examples of local climate changes, using long-term data on changes in Toronto s air temperatures and Vancouver s precipitation. In this revised version (as of 26 May 2015) we have added two figures. Climate Change 101: Topic 4 What Is Climate Change? Harun Rashid Climate change model projections of hot days for selected Canadian cities. The number of hot days for each city is based on the observed temperature data between 1961 and 1990, and projected for , and Figure 1. Climate models (developed by Slava, as indicated below) suggest significant increases in hot days in major Canadian cities. The figure above shows future trends up to Source: Developed by Kharin Slava, Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canadian Global Climate Change Model version 3.1, personal communication, The temperature projections were analyzed with the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) using the IPCC middle-of-the-road emissions scenario (A1B). Figure credit: Health Canada. retrieved on 26 May 2015 How does Figure 1 above relate to our work? In the first part of our article (this blog post), we have analyzed historical temperature data to show that a warming trend in Toronto has already started.

2 2 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Figure 2. Vancouver in June, a relatively dry month. Photo credit: gocanada.about.com. Source: retrieved on 26 May 2015 Vancouver has a coastal Mediterranean climate. As in the Mediterranean climate, most of Vancouver s rainfall occurs during the winter months. Some claim that the amounts of winter rainfall in Vancouver have increased recently. In the second part of this article we make an attempt to answer this question. Three distinct components of climate change In less than thirty years, climate change has evolved into an exceedingly complex topic because of the way it is used by different interest groups. The latter include diverse groups, among them: Scientists researching and writing on climate change Policy makers: politicians responsible for legislations on climate change and bureaucrats responsible for implementing these policies Industrialists and businessmen who have an interest in minimizing expenditures on emission control (i.e., control of carbon dioxide emissions responsible for global warming) Environmentalists and activists who have an interest in protecting the environment from the adverse impacts of climate change News media reporting on different aspects of climate change and climate change policies One of the central problems with public discourse (language of communication) on climate change is that each of the preceding groups may focus on entirely different aspects of climate change, using different interpretations of the topic. Even many scientists writing on different components of global warming, climate change and climate change impacts may label all of these topics under the general name of climate change. We believe that much of the current controversies associated with climate change could be minimized by distinguishing these topics into three categories. First, global warming refers to increases in the average global temperatures. This is an objective term as the average temperatures of the Earth can be verified by recorded data. Second, as the term climate change stands for literally, it deals with noticeable changes in climatic patterns of different places on the earth surface. This is also an objective concept as many of the changes in climatic patterns can be verified by evidences (climatic data and field evidences of changes), though not

3 3 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? necessarily conclusively. Third, climate change impacts are less objective as these are subject to contesting interpretations. A cause-and-effect relationship between global warming or climate change and its impact on a specific characteristic of the atmosphere is difficult to prove. It requires lots of sophisticated research. Recent changes/increases in the frequencies of cyclones/hurricanes provide an example. Advanced research on this topic have tried to link cyclone activities in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans to changes in air pressure over warmer ocean waters during El-Nino events in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Similarly, research has established links between summer monsoon floods in India and Bangladesh to the La Nina events over the Pacific Ocean a cooler Pacific east coast but a warmer west coast. In short, proving climate change impacts is a much more challenging proposition than either providing objective data on global warming or describing changes in climatic patterns of a given place/region. Nature of this article Climate change can be studied at different scales. At a global scale, some regions have already experienced major changes in their climatic patterns. For example, droughts have expanded over large parts of the Sahel in West Africa. Lately, heat waves have become common in some parts of Europe and the amounts of rainfall have increased in certain parts of the Tropics. Based on extensive data analyses, many scientific articles have been published on such regional patterns of climate change. Because of the limitation of space, we have taken a much narrower approach for studying changes in local climatic patterns. Thus, in this study we have analyzed long-term air temperature data for Toronto and precipitation data for Vancouver, to assess if such data provide any evidence of changes in local climatic patterns of these two contrasting geographical locations. To test our assumptions of changes in local climatic patterns, we have asked several familiar questions. Has the climate of Toronto become warmer in recent years? Similarly, have summers become warmer and winters milder in Toronto? Toronto has a continental climate because of its location in the interior of North America. Therefore, one of our basic assumptions was that such an interior place might be an ideal location for studying changes in its thermal climatic patterns. In contrast, Vancouver is situated on the west coast of Canada on the Pacific Ocean which enjoys a moderate climate because of the influence of the ocean. Therefore, changes in air temperatures are not a major concern here. Instead, it has often been claimed anecdotally that Vancouver has become rainier in recent years. Some have even suggested that the precipitation patterns of Vancouver have changed, implying changes in seasonal concentrations of summer and winter precipitation. We have summarized long-term data in the form of descriptive tables to answer some of these basic questions. As in the previous blog-posts, we have avoided any advanced statistical analyses to keep our explanations as simple as possible. Has the climate of Toronto become warmer in recent years? The answer is yes! To answer this question we have analyzed long-term temperature data in two separate steps. Normal air temperatures. At the first step, we have compared normal air temperatures for Toronto for a period of 50 years ( ). In climate science, the term normal means long-term average. Following the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) practice, Environment Canada uses a 30-year average for calculating Canadian Climatic Normals. The Environment Canada website has posted three successive Canadian Climatic Normals: (a) , (b) , and (c) 1981-

4 4 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? The latest normal data for are based on ten-year updates of the previous three decades of data ( ). Similarly, the latter was an update of the previous three decades of data ( ). Data are provided for both air temperature and precipitation, using different types of statistics. The simplest of these statistics may be expressed as normal annual temperature, which is the average annual temperature for 30 years. The average annual temperature, in turn, is the average of daily temperatures for 365 days of each year. According to these Canadian Climatic Normal data, the normal annual temperatures for Toronto were as follows: : 7.2 C : 7.5 C : 8.2 C These data show that the average annual temperature of Toronto has increased by 1 C during the last 50 years ( ). For the equivalent period the global average temperature has increased by about 0.59 C. Thus, Toronto has experienced greater rates of warming than the global average. This finding is consistent with our expectation as continental places are likely to experience greater rates of warming than the global average, which includes both ocean surface and land surface temperatures and data from wide ranges of latitudes. As a note of caution, this is one of our basic assumptions that would still require further data analyses to confirm it. Because of the space limitation we have not made any attempt to compare data from different continental and marine locations. Average temperatures by decades. At the second step, we have further expanded our analysis by comparing temperature increases by successive decades during a period of 70 years ( ) (Table 4.1). These data show that warming has been gradual and more consistent for the last three decades ( ), compared to the previous four decades ( ). Whereas the first two decades ( ) enjoyed warmer than the normal temperature of 7.2 C, the third and the fourth decades ( ) experienced cooler than normal temperatures. Starting from 1981, Toronto s annual temperatures have been increasing steadily. The largest amount of increases occurred in the last decade ( ), registering an increase of C above the normal. The data for 2011 and 2012 indicate not only continuation of warming trends but also abnormally large increases of annual temperatures, by as much as +0.9 C and +2.3 C, respectively, above the 30-year normal. Have summers become warmer in Toronto? The answer is again yes! The following are our analyses. Summer temperature trends. Although we have not employed any advanced statistical analyses, we have conducted extensive recalculations of different types of data to answer this question. Some of these data require definitions as they are slightly technical. Two such definitions are as follows: The daily temperature of a given place (a weather station, for example) is the average of hourly temperatures for 24 hours of a day. The normal daily temperature of a month refers to the latest 30-year average daily temperature for that month (averaged for days of the month).

5 5 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Using daily data reports for a period of 70 years ( ), we have calculated 10-year averages of daily temperatures for the months of May, June, July, August and September (five warmest months) to determine summer temperature trends by successive decades, compared to the latest 30- year normal daily temperatures ( ) (Table 4.2). For example, the normal daily temperature for the month of May ( ) is C. The 10-year average data for May indicate that for five decades ( ) the average daily temperatures were cooler than the normal. It was only in the last two decades, starting from 1991, that the daily temperatures for the month of May have increased by C in and by C in Overall, the 10-year data show considerable variations in the detailed patterns of temperature changes in the summer months. Some of the trends are as follows: The latest 10-year averages ( ) for all of the five months have increased compared to the first decade of analysis ( ). None of the months has registered consecutive increases in average daily temperatures for three decades in a row. Out of the five months, the average daily temperatures have increased for two decades in a row ( ) only in the months of May and June. This implies that increases in the latest normal daily temperatures ( ) have been contributed largely by above-normal increases in the last decade ( ). The greatest amount of increase has occurred in the month of September, from C in to C in (an increase of C). The average temperature for the month of July (the warmest month of the year) has increased from C in to C in (a modest increase of C). Daily maximum temperatures in summer months. Using data for the daily maximum temperatures (one of the items of the Canadian climatic normal data), we have also compared how the 30-year averages of daily maximum temperatures in a given month have changed during the last 50 years ( ) (Table 4.3). The original data on daily maximum temperatures in a given month are the 30-year averages of daily maximum temperatures. Calculated in this manner, changes in the daily maximum temperatures have been more consistent than the general summer temperature trends (data presented in Table 4.2). Data in Table 4.3 show that the average daily maximums for each of the five months have increased gradually from to Again, the largest increase has occurred in the month of September, from 20.9 C in to 21.6 C in (an increase of +0.7 C). In the last row of Table 4.3 we have listed five highest daily temperatures, one for each of the five months, during a period of 70 years ( ). Each of these was the absolute highest daily temperature (record temperature) in a given month in 70 years. From the dates of these records, it seems that they had occurred in random, independently from recent warming trends. Four of the five records occurred during the earlier years ( ). The highest daily temperature in 70 years was 38.3 C, which was recorded on 25 August The second highest temperature (37.6 C) was recorded on 7 July It is relevant here that, irrespective of their timing, each of the record temperatures represented heat alert events. For the city of Toronto, heat alerts are issued when the daily maximum temperatures reach a threshold value of 30 C. When such high temperatures (30 C or higher) continue consecutively for a period of three to seven days, these events are characterized as heat waves. Some studies suggest that heat alerts and heat waves have increased in Toronto in recent years

6 6 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Have winters become milder in Toronto? The answer is yes! To answer this question, we have prepared Table 4.4, which is identical to the format/nature of Table 4.2. Data on 10-year averages of daily temperatures for the months of December, January and February (three coldest months) indicate patterns of changes in winter temperatures, which have some similarities with summer temperature trends. Thus: Daily temperatures have become significantly warmer in the months of December, January and February in the last two decades ( ), compared to the first decade of analysis ( ). The average temperature for the month of January, the coldest month, has increased by C, from C in to C in This also represented an increase of C from the latest normal temperature for January (-5.50 C). Like the average annual temperatures, the winter temperatures in the third and the fourth decades ( ) were particularly cooler than their long-term normal trends. In contrast, the last decade ( ), in particular, has experienced milder winter temperatures. Has Vancouver become rainier in recent years? The answer is yes! To answer this question, first, we have analyzed 70 years of data on annual precipitation by successive decades (Table 4.5). Annual precipitation trends in Vancouver. The following trends are evident from changes in the amounts of annual precipitation by decades during the period of analysis: Annual precipitation has increased in every decade from to The absolute increase in 70 years has been by an amount of +100 mm (from 1027 mm to 1127 mm). The latest normal ( ) annual precipitation for Vancouver (1189 mm) has been exaggerated by abnormally high precipitation in (1227 mm). Consequently, gradual increases in annual precipitation by successive decades before and after this record period seem to be somewhat masked by this spike in rainfall. With a random decline in 2011, the data for 2012 indicate continuation of long-term increases in precipitation. The seasonal concentration of precipitation (mostly rainfall) does not indicate any particular pattern changes. Roughly, two-thirds to three-quarters of rainfall occur during the wettest half of the year (October to March). The data on snowfall confirm that Vancouver has a predominantly rainy climate as snowfall amounts are insignificant compared to the annual rainfall amounts, especially if snowfall is converted into equivalent rainfall (roughly by a factor of 1 cm of snowfall is equal to about 1 mm of rainfall). Winter precipitation trends in Vancouver. We have prepared Table 4.6 to assess if winter precipitation has increased in Vancouver. In Table 4.5, earlier we looked into seasonal concentration of precipitation during the wettest half of the year. In Table 4.6, we have analyzed 50-year trends ( ) in winter precipitation in the months of November, December and January (three rainiest months of the year). These data show that the successive 30-year averages (normal data) for winter precipitation have increased in the months of November and January, whereas December has

7 7 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? registered a decline. We are unable to explain this decline in precipitation in the month of December without further research. In the last row of Table 4.6 we have listed data for three highest daily rainfall and snowfall, one for each of the three months, during a period of 50 years ( ). Each of these was the absolute highest daily precipitation (record precipitation) in a given month in 50 years. As in the case of record temperatures in Table 4.3, it seems that they occurred in random, independently from recent increases in annual precipitation. The highest daily rainfall in 50 years was 89.4 mm, which was recorded on 25 December The second highest amount (68.3 mm) occurred on 18 January The third highest amount on 3 November 1989 (65mm) was not significantly different from the second highest amount. In short, there is no conclusive evidence suggesting that the seasonal precipitation patterns in Vancouver have changed significantly. Conclusion In this article we have analyzed long-term temperature data for Toronto and precipitation data for Vancouver to assess if global warming has caused any significant changes in local climatic patterns of these two contrasting places (stations). Although our selection of sample stations has been arbitrary we were constrained by space limitation and by our overall goal of a popular style of analysis (to be consistent with the popular writing style of the CCAPS website). We did not wish to conduct any sophisticated statistical analyses to assess changes in local climatic patterns. Instead, our data analyses have been elementary, involving recalculations of averages of original data and determining differences of these averages from long-term normal data (30-year averages). Despite such a basic approach, we found that our data analyses have provided some evidences of recent changes in air temperature patterns (thermal climates) of Toronto and precipitation patterns of Vancouver. It should be stressed here that for explaining why or how these changes have occurred, more advanced research would be required employing different types of climatic/meteorological data and sophisticated statistical analyses. Consistent with the style of the popular science, we have tried to answer some of the familiar questions. Two of our major findings are as follows: Our analyses indicate that there is no question that global warming has affected the thermal climatic patterns of Toronto. Overall, Toronto has become warmer in recent years. Its summers have also become warmer and winters have become milder. Global warming seems to have affected the precipitation patterns of Vancouver. As it has been claimed anecdotally, Vancouver has indeed become rainier during the last 70 years. However, our data analyses do not provide evidence of any significant changes in the seasonal concentrations of rainfall in Vancouver. Notes: Six tables have been appended at the end of this article. Sources consulted: Besides the original data sources acknowledged below each of the tables, we have consulted the following sources for preparing this article (blog-post). Comments and corrections are welcome.

8 8 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Barry, R.G. and Chorley, R.J Atmosphere, Weather and Climate (9 th Edition). New York and London: Routledge. Houghton, J Global Warming: The Complete Briefing (3 rd Edition). Cambridge, UK, New York: Cambridge University Press. Rashid, H. and Paul, B Climate Change in Bangladesh: Confronting Impending Disasters. Lanham, MD, Boulder, CO, New York, Toronto, Plymouth, UK: Lexington Books. To cite this article: Rashid, H What is Climate Change? CCAPS Blog-Post: Climate Change 101, Topic 4. Table 4.1 Annual Temperature Trends in Toronto, Annual temperature ( C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal annual temperature* (by C) *Normal annual temperature for Toronto is 8.2 C, which is the average of the annual temperatures for the latest 30 years ( ). Source: Prepared by the author based on original data from Environment Canada, Historical Climate Data, Monthly Data Reports ( ) and Canadian Climatic Normals ( ). retrieved on 8 nd March 2015.

9 9 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Table 4.2 Summer Temperature Trends in Toronto, May June July August September Decade year average daily temp ( C) 10-year average daily temp ( C) 10-year average daily temp ( C) 10-year average daily temp ( C) 10-year average daily temp ( C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) temperature* (by C) (-0.78) (-0.17) (-0.74) (-0.29) (-0.48) (-0.52) (-0.02) (-0.14) (-0.08) (-0.02) (-1.35) (-1.04) (-1.39) (-1.55) 15.3 (-0.9) (-0.66) 17.1 (-1.5) (-1.31) 19.5 (-1.1) 14.9 (-1.3) (-0.39) (-1.05) 21.2 (-0.3) (-0.83) (-0.86) (+0.28) (+0.24) (-0.41) (-0.31) (-0.48) (+0.17) (+0.82) (+0.55) (+1.01) (+1.36) *Normal daily temperature refers to the latest 30-year ( ) average daily temperature for a given month. The normal daily temperatures for were as follows: May: C, June: C, July: C, August: C, September: C. Source: Prepared by the author based on original data from Environment Canada, Historical Climate Data, Daily Data Reports ( ) and Canadian Climate Normals ( ). retrieved on 8 nd March 2015.

10 10 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Table 4.3 Daily Maximum Temperatures in Summer Months in Toronto, Daily maximum temperature May ( C) June ( C) July ( C) August ( C) September ( C) (30-year average) (30-year average) (30-year average) Highest daily temperature in May ( C) June ( C) July ( C) August ( C) September ( C) 70 years ( ) (date) (date) (date) (date) (date) (16 May/62) (25 June/52) (7 Jul/88) (25 Aug/48) (2 Sep/53) Source: Prepared by the author based on original data from Environment Canada, Historical Climate Data, Canadian Climate Normals ( ). retrieved on 8 nd March 2015.

11 11 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Table 4.4 Winter Temperature Trends in Toronto, Decade December January February 10-year average daily 10-year average daily 10-year average daily temperature ( C) temperature ( C) temperature ( C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal daily temperature* (by C) (-1.56) (-0.54) (-1.82) (-0.64) -5.73(-0.23) (-0.09) (-1.79) (-1.78) (-2.08) (-1.64) -7.2 (-1.7) -7 (-2.5) (-0.68) -6.1 (-0.6) (-0.38) (+0.16) (-0.17) (+0.07) (+0.56) (+0.71) (+0.15) *Normal daily temperature refers to the latest 30-year ( ) average daily temperature for a given month. Normal daily temperatures for were as follows: December: C, January: C, February: C. Source: Prepared by the author based on original data from Environment Canada, Historical Climate Data, Daily Data Reports ( ) and Canadian Climate Normals ( ). retrieved on 8 nd March 2015.

12 12 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Table 4.5 Annual Precipitation Trends in Vancouver, Annual precipitation (mm) Higher or lower (+/-) than the normal annual precipitation* (mm) Annual snowfall (cm) October-March total (mm) (% of annual total) (-162) (72%) (-125) (74%) (-76) (74%) (-28) (64%) (+38) (72%) (-77) (76%) (-62) (74%) (-121) (67%) (+22) (80%) *Normal annual precipitation for Vancouver is 1189 mm, which is the average of the annual precipitation for the latest 30 years ( ). Source: Prepared by the author based on original data from Environment Canada, Historical Climate Data, Daily Data Reports ( ) and Canadian Climate Normals ( ). retrieved on 8 nd March 2015.

13 13 CCAPS: Climate Change 101 Series, Topic 4. What is Climate Change? Table 4.6 Winter Precipitation Trends in Vancouver, November December January Monthly rainfall (mm) Monthly rainfall (mm) Monthly rainfall (mm) (30- year average) (30- year average) (30- year average) (Snowfall, cm) (Snowfall, cm) (Snowfall, cm) (2.6) (18.6) (20.6) (2.5) (16.3) (16.6) (3.2) (14.8) (11.1) Highest daily Rainfall/Date Rainfall/Date Rainfall/Date rainfall (snowfall) in 50 years (1961- (snowfall/ Date) (snowfall/ Date) (snowfall/ Date) 2010) 65 mm (3 Nov /89) 89.4 mm (25 Dec/72) 68.3 mm (18 Jan/ 68) (22.1 cm, 30 Nov /75) (31.2 cm, 31 Dec/68) (29.7 cm, 13 Jan/ 71) Source: Prepared by the author based on original data from Environment Canada, Historical Climate Data, Canadian Climate Normals ( ). retrieved on 8 nd March 2015.

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