The Potential Influence of Climate Change on Inland Waters, & Fish and Fisheries Ecology. Minnesota Waters Lakes and Rivers Conference May 7, 2009

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1 The Potential Influence of Climate Change on Inland Waters, & Fish and Fisheries Ecology John J. Magnuson Center for Limnology UW-Madison Minnesota Waters Lakes and Rivers Conference May 7, 2009 Magnuson Photo

2 Ice Cover on Lakes -- A Miner s Canary Extreme Events Fishes and Fisheries Bracing for the Impacts Magnuson Photo

3 The Invisible Present The Invisible Place Magnuson 2006

4 Ice Cover (Days) Lake Mendota, Wisconsin 142 Years ( ) 1 Year Magnuson 2004

5 Ice Cover (Days) Interannual Variability 142 Years ( ) 10 Years Magnuson 2004

6 Ice Cover (Days) Dynamics from the Central Pacific Years ( ) 50 Years ( ) El Niño Years Magnuson 2004

7 Lake Mendota Ice Duration to Lake Mendota Ice Cover Dur The Story Continues - Trends Persist, Greater Extremes ( ) Duration (days) Decrease 1.85 days per decade. Proportion of variance accounted fo Magnuson 2009

8 The Invisible Present The Invisible Place Magnuson 2006

9 Apostle Island National Lakeshore

10 Apostle Island Ferries run when water is open Magnuson photo

11 Day of Year Relative to Dec. 31 day of year relative to Dec Bayfield Harbor Dates of last boat in fall and first boat the next Spring dates of last boat and first boat the next Sprin Forrest Howk High School Science project 200 First first boat boat 1.6 days earlier / decade Last last boat boat y = x R 2 = days later / decade y = x R 2 = Houk 2007

12 MacKenzie River, NW Terr. Changes around the Northern Hemisphere (36-37 of the 39 time series are in the direction of warming) Nov 1 Kallavesi, Finland Ice On Lake Mendota, WI Baikal, Russia Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan Lake Mendota, WI Ice Off Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Baikal, Russia Kallavesi, Finland Source: IPCC 3rd Assessment 2001 Modified from Magnuson et al. 2000

13 The Invisible Present The Invisible Place Magnuson 2006

14 Photo: R. Lathrop Photo: J. Patz What is happening to Winter in Wisconsin? Photo: UW Center for Limnology Culture Sense of Place Recreation Tourism

15 Lake Ice Seasonality and Northern Hemisphere Land Temperatures Normalized Anomalies from Long Term Means r 2 = 0.47 Average Winter Ice Duration (8 Lakes) Average Air Temperature Fall - Winter - Spring Annual Values 11-year running means Benson, Jensen, & Magnuson, in progress

16 Variabilty and Extreme Events

17 Spatial Patterns ( ) Trends in Ice-Out Dates Jenson, Benson, Magnuson et al. 2007

18 Integrators of Climate Change IPCC (SPM WG 1) Global Average Temperature ºC Million km 2 IPCC WG IPCC 1, 2007

19 Ice-on Day 2007 Local Lake Mendota Peter W. Schmitz Photo

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21 Lake Mendota Ice Duration to Lake Mendota Ice Cover Dur The Story Continues - Trends Persist, Greater Extremes ( ) Duration (days) longest Decrease 1.85 days per decade. Proportion of variance accounted fo 10 shortest Magnuson 2009

22 Increase in the Extreme Event of Lakes Not Freezing lakes with no freeze by year Number of Lakes with Data Proportion of These that Did Not Freeze Number of Lakes with Data that Year year Benson, Jensen & Magnuson In process

23 Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability IPCC 2007 Working Group 2

24 White areas are where less than 66% of the models agree in direction IPCC 2007 Winter Precipitation (% Change) Great Lakes Region Scenarios , relative to Summer

25 Effects of Global Warming on Water Cycle Global Warming (temperature increase) Speeds up Global Water Cycle More Extreme Weather Events Droughts Storms Floods Photo: NOAA

26 Relative to an Average of 1 per Year x3 x2 1 x3 x2 1 0 Increased Frequency of Heavy Rainfall 24-Hour Events Observed 7-Day Events High Emission QuickTime and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. Great Lakes Region Low Emission High Emission Observed Low Emission UCS/ESA 2003

27 Occurrences per decade s 2000s Trends in major precipitation events for Madison WI, fold increase in likelihood of extreme rainfall events (>3 in.) in recent years s 2000s s 2000s

28 Water Levels of Lake Mendota, Wisconsin 13 the trend (6 in/century) = 10% of variation variability around trend = 90% of variation 10 highest Water Level (2-day average in feet above reference) lowest 8 9/18/15 5/27/29 2/3/43 10/12/56 6/21/70 2/28/84 11/6/ USGS Data, Magnuson plot 2009

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30 Larger storms cause severe flood damage to communities risk = (probability of an events occurrence) X (its consequence) Lake Delton, WI, June 2008 Photo: Joe Koshollek, Milwaukee Journal Sentinal Antigo, WI 2004 Photo: City of Antigo Baraboo, WI, June 2008 Photo: Michael Kienitz Baraboo, WI, June 2008 Photo: WDNR

31 Combined sewer overflow from Milwaukee entering Lake Michigan Waterborne infectious disease problems will increase if more intense storms overwhelm sewage treatment and stormwater infrastructure Photo: Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage Dist. Photo: Mark Kuether Flooding at Reedsburg (WI) SewageTreatment Plant, June 2008 Photo: Steve Zibell

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34 Mississippi River at Clinton, Iowa Discharge (Cubic feet per second) Magnuson Plot USGS data

35 Variability and Extreme Events - Water Climate change varies across the years and our states. Extreme events cause social and environmental damage before changes in average conditions do. Extreme ice cover years, extreme snow and rain events, extreme stream flow and flooding are increasing. Understanding the interaction between climate change and climate variability and extremes is a key science question. Magnuson 2008

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37 poleward movement of species First - Climate change is a pervasive influence & would be expected to affect fish & fisheries through, at least: increased storm intensities altered stream flows themal stress & optima sea ice meltback management boundaries coral ecosystems altered lake levels warmwater fishes pollutant transport nutrient & sediment inputs lakeshore flooding sea level rise invasive species no adaptation strategies glacial melting altered foodwebs coldwater fishes ocean acidification coastal erosion & flooding biodiversity surprise coolwater fishes primary productivity fishery movement decreased ice fishing mismanagement of change altered groundwater levels Magnuson 2008 altered hydrographs mangrove ecosystems

38 Example Figure: Freshwater Fishes Keleher & Rahel 1996 Mohseni & Stefan 2000 McCauley & Beitinger 1992 Fang et al in Lakes IPCC 2001 Working Group 2

39 Lake Trout in Lake Michigan Magnuson Photo 2008

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42 Brook Trout in Wisconsin Brook Trout Photos by Matt Mitro Wisc. DNR

43 Warmer water Habitat loss. Invasion of warm water species. Competition and predation. Reduced value of fishery. Changing Climate and Brook Trout More extreme precipitation events. Flooding, storms, spring snow melt More erosion, runoff, extreme flows. Decline in water quality. Less successful reproduction. More drought Dewatering, habitat loss. modiefied from Lyons & Mitro Wisc. DNR

44 Go Local +5.4ºF +1.8ºF 98% loss 47% loss +1.8ºF John Lyons Wisc DNR 2009

45 4) Expect the unexpected! 4. Expect the Unexpected John Lyons Wisc. DNR

46 Catfish gains don t offset trout losses +1.8 F +5.4º +9.0 F John Lyons Wisc. DNR 2009

47 Bracing for Imact

48 Challenges of Climate Change. How to. 7.2 F 3.2 F Mitigate Adapt IPCC 2007

49 Acting on Climate Change in Wisconsin Mitigation: Governor s Task Force on Global Warming addressed ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Adaptation: Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI) addresses ways to adapt to consequences of climate change

50 Current & Developing Working Groups Agriculture Human Health Milwaukee Northern Highlands Coldwater Fish & Fisheries Central Sands Wisconsin Climate Stormwater Natural Areas Wildlife Forestry Coastal Communities Green Bay

51 Working Groups Objectives: Identify Identify potential risks and vulnerabilities pertinent to working group topic area or geographic region Summarize existing information on climate change impacts Identify Identify data and research needed to assess future impacts Recommend adaptation strategies

52 Example Products of the WICCI Climate Working Group

53 getting dryer getting wetter

54 Percent change in precipitation relative to B1 Greenhouse gas scenario that some think we may be able to achieve by mitigation. Mean of 15 IPCC Climate models Downscaled to Wisconsin WICCI Climate Working Group David Lorenz to7% Dryer 0 21 to 24% wetter

55 Think Ahead! Climate Change Adaptation & Mitigation Magnuson Photos