Changing Climate. An Engineering challenge for today and the future. Milwaukee School of Engineering December 2, 2015

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1 Changing Climate An Engineering challenge for today and the future David S. Liebl UW- Madison, EPD; UW-Extension; Wisconsin Initiative on Climate change Impacts Milwaukee School of Engineering December 2, 2015

2 Overview Trends in historic and projected climate Climate vulnerabilities and risk Adapting to climate risk Q&A and discussion

3 Do you think Wisconsin s climate is different now than it was before your parents were parents?

4 Historic Temperature Change Wisconsin has warmed by F since 1950

5 Daytime High Temperature Change Winter Spring Nighttime Low Temperature Change Winter Spring

6 Temperature Extremes Sub-zero nights: much less frequent Very hot days: little change

7 Ice breakup date April 3, 2015 Warmer winters: less ice cover Lake Mendota, Dane County - John Magnuson All Great Lakes

8 Dates of Spring and Fall Freeze Wisconsin growing season lengthened by 1-4 weeks since 1950

9 Of 55 ecological indicators of spring, 37 advanced between and Pasque flower bloom 9 days earlier, on average American Robin arrival March March 5 Bloodroot bloom 14 days earlier, on average Source: Stan Temple, UW-Madison

10 Historic Precipitation Change Upper Midwest Precipitation Trends of 10 of the wettest years for daily precipitation have occurred since 1978 S. Vavrus, Center for Climatic Research

11 Annual Average Precipitation Change Wisconsin rainfall has changed 7-4 since 1950

12 The climate idea Climate is properly the long average of weather in a single place The Cornhill Magazine, 1860 NOAA Köppen climate subdivisions (30 year averages)

13 What about climate concerns us? Humans experience climate as weather

14 What about climate concerns us? and weather can take a human toll!

15 What do you think about projections of future climate?

16 WICCI Climate Assessments and Projections UW-Center for Climatic Research (CCR) Objective Statistically downscale global climate model simulations across the east and central Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), to scales that are relevant for decision makers (~10 km). Downscaling Region

17 Projected change in mean annual temperature +6⁰F (SRES A1B)

18 Selecting Climate Data Co 2 Emission Scenarios A2 9 ⁰F A1B 6 ⁰F Using: A1B as mid-range example (not more likely) B1 5 ⁰F

19 Projected change in annual mean temperature Measured Projected ⁰F High 46.6 Mean 42.8⁰F Low High 52.3 (10%) Mean 48.7⁰F Low 45.8 (10%)

20 Comparing: Late 20 th to mid-21 st How far do we need to look ahead? Planning Horizons Local budgets 1-2 years Staffing levels 3-5 years Buildings years Water, Sewers, etc. >50 years Today s climate is what matters for most decisions 35 years 85 years +6 ⁰F +8-9 ⁰F

21 Projected change in annual peak temperatures (SRES A1B) days >90⁰F +0-5 days >100⁰F

22 Seasonal change in max temperature (SRES A1B) Winter +6-7⁰F Spring +5-6⁰F Summer +4-5⁰F Fall +6⁰F

23 Projected change in annual precipitation +5-15% (SRES A1B)

24 Seasonal change in precipitation (SRES A1B) Winter % Spring % Summer +0-5% Fall +5-10%

25 Projected change in > 2 rain 2-5/10yr (SRES A1B)

26 Projected change in >2 rain, +4-7 per decade (SRES A1B) Increase continues over time

27 Summary of Wisconsin s Projected Climate Warmer winter and nighttime temperatures Frequent hot summer days, heat waves and dry periods Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation More rainfall during winter and spring Short term variability (weather) and extreme events cannot be projected

28 Why should we worry about future precipitation? Flooding and extreme rainfall threaten life prosperity

29 Hydrologic design is based on experience. The statistics we use actually reflect a drier period (TP40, ) Largest Daily Rainfall Madison, WI Mississippi River at Clinton Annual Flood Peaks Rainfall (inches) 3 2 Discharge (cfs) Year Year Are we designing for historic climate? - Potter

30 Year Projected Return Period vs Historical NARCCAP Storm frequency 0 1.0" 2.5" 3.0" 3.5" 4.0" 5.0" Storm Intensity Inch 7 6 Storm Intensity vs Storm intensity 5 4 Historical 3 NARCCAP Both are projected to increase. -Vavrus and Behnke year 5 years 10 years 25 years 50 years 100 years Return Period

31 Increased Heavy Rainfall = More Sanitary Sewer Overflows April 9-13, (2.0 & hr) April 17-20, (1.5 & hr) Observed: Projected: Milwaukee s projected frequency of 2.5-inch daily rainfalls (=CSOs) years 2.3 years - Vavrus Precipitation events associated with CSOs increase from 3 times per decade to 4-7 times per decade by 2050

32 Extreme Rainfall Milwaukee, July 22, in one hour 2,000 calls for basement backups Sanitary sewers overflow 100M gallons Beaches closed through July 25 th $37M Damage. Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

33 > Daily Exceedances event/year

34 9 Wisconsin Extreme Precipitation Events >5 /day Number of Events 5 Exceedences year # events #/year Total precip Precip/event Liebl

35 What an extreme rainstorm can do June 1-15, 2008 DNR 38 River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land flooded 161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage 2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated $34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM

36 Baraboo Extreme Storm Transposition - Use an infrequent storm from one location as a design storm in another area. - Practical, given uncertainty in climate change projections - Objective method for assessing extreme storm vulnerabilities Madison NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR

37 June 2008 Lake Stage, Transposed Case Peak Stage: Year Flood Stage: Duration above 100 Year Flood Stage: 10 Days - Fletcher

38 peak stage 6 DEM - Fletcher

39 So, What do we do with this information?

40 How should we adapt water management to projected extreme precipitation events? Assess Vulnerability Floodplains At-risk road-crossings Stormwater BMPs Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration Emergency response capacity Wells and septic systems Hazardous materials storage Build Long-Term Resilience Modify structures Update management policies Change design standards Strengthen ordinances Adopt green infrastructure

41 Understand climate science and impacts

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