Great Lakes Update. Background

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1 Great Lakes Update Background The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Detroit District, monitors and forecasts the water levels of the Great Lakes. This report summarizes the hydrologic conditions of the Great Lakes basin during In 2016, the levels of the Great Lakes, with the exception of Lake Ontario, remained above average. This continued a recent trend of higher than average water levels. After a 15 year period of below average water levels that culminated in record and near record low levels in 2012 and January 2013, the levels of lakes Superior and Michigan-Huron surpassed their long term average water levels in 2014, and have remained above average throughout 2015 and A summary of 2016 Great Lakes water levels is discussed in the following lake-by-lake sections. Official water levels are based on monthly lakewide means, and the period of record used for each of the lakes includes the years 1918 to These data have been coordinated between the United States and Canada through All 2016 water levels will be officially coordinated and added to the historical record in the spring of The elevations used are referenced to the International Great Lakes Datum of The water level of each lake is averaged from a network of individual gauges around each lake. Also of note is that Lake Michigan and Lake Huron are hydraulically treated as one lake due to their connection at the Straits of Mackinac. The Great Lakes are large and behave differently from smaller, inland lakes. In general, Great Lakes Volume 196: 2016 Annual Summary water levels do not rise and fall dramatically with individual storms. Significant water level fluctuations require multiple months, seasons, or years of wet or dry conditions. Each year, all the Great Lakes experience a seasonal rise and a seasonal decline due to changes in weather patterns. The seasonal rise, typically starting in the spring, is caused primarily by an increase in precipitation, increased runoff due to melting of accumulated snow, and low evaporation rates. The typical seasonal decline of the water levels in the fall and winter is primarily caused by an increase in evaporation, a decrease in precipitation, and the accumulation of snowpack on the land area. The term net basin supply (NBS) is used to describe the amount of water that is contributed to or lost from a lake within the confines of its natural drainage basin. USACE uses the residual method to compute NBS, shown below: Residual Method Net Basin Supply: NBS = WL I D + O WL: Water Level Change I: Connecting Channel Inflow O: Connecting Channel Outflow D: Diversion into (+) or out(-) of lake NBS includes water which a lake receives from precipitation on its surface, runoff from its own land drainage basin, and evaporation of water from the lake s surface. Precipitation and runoff have the opposite effect on NBS than evaporation. The higher the quantity of precipitation and runoff, the higher the NBS. Conversely, a higher quantity of

2 evaporation, may lead to lower NBS. NBS is far and away the main driver of water levels, and is discussed in more detail in the following sections for each Great Lake. Figure 1: Lake Superior Water Levels Lake Superior water levels remained above average for all of When comparing the lake s monthly levels in 2016 with its corresponding monthly LTA levels, Lake Superior was an average of 7 inches above LTA in Lake Superior started the year at a level of ft., nearly identical to its level in January 2015, 9 inches above its LTA in January, and 21 inches higher than in January At the end of 2016, the lake was 2 inches lower than its level in December 2016, but still 6 inches above LTA. The lake s seasonal climb in 2016 was just 9 inches, 3 inches lower than its historical average rise and its lowest climb since In addition, Lake Superior s 2016 monthly levels nearly mirrored the water levels of the previous year. The monthly mean water levels in 2016 were within 2 inches of the corresponding monthly levels in 2015 in all months except October. Figure 2 shows the Lake Superior NBS for each month in 2016 in relation to its corresponding monthly average NBS. NBS was above average in 9 months, including 6 of the last 7 months of the year. Precipitation was above average in 6 of the last 7 months of the year as well. Nevertheless, precipitation received by the lake in all of 2016 was just near average. Figure 2: Lake Superior Residual Net Basin Supply Lake Superior Figure 1 shows the 2016 water levels of Lake Superior compared with the 2015 water levels, and the monthly long-term average (LTA) levels. To demonstrate the extent of the water level rise of Lakes Superior during the past 3 to 4 years, the lower than average 2012 levels were included. Each lake s data has been plotted relative to chart datum (a.k.a. low water datum), which represents the horizontal line at a value of zero. Chart datum for Lake Superior is ft. Lake Michigan-Huron Consistently above average water levels characterized Lake Michigan-Huron in After being below its LTA levels for about 15 straight years, Lake Michigan-Huron had been above average for 28 straight months as of December In 2016, levels started 2 inches above 2015 levels in January and ended the year 2 inches below 2015 levels in December. Water levels in Figure 3 are relative to the Lake Michigan-Huron chart datum level of ft. When comparing the lake s monthly levels in 2016 with its corresponding monthly LTA levels, Lake Page 2

3 Michigan-Huron was an average of 11 inches above LTA in In addition, Lake Michigan- Huron 2016 monthly levels were above its corresponding 2015 monthly levels for the whole year except for December levels are again shown to demonstrate the large rise in water levels over the past 3 to 4 years. Lake Michigan-Huron s seasonal decline in the fall/winter of was 7 inches; the average fall is 11 inches. In 2016, the lake began rising in February or about 2 months earlier than it typically begins rising. The lake s seasonal rise of 11 inches matched its historical average seasonal rise. Lake Michigan-Huron peaked at ft. in June, the highest level it has reached since September In June, the lake was nearly 2 and ½ feet higher than it was in June of 2012, and its December level was more than 3 feet higher than it was in December 2012, when it fell to a record low level for the month of December. levels remaining above average. Precipitation to the lake was 8% above average in Figure 3: Lake Michigan-Huron Water Levels Figure 4 shows the 2016 NBS for Lake Michigan- Huron compared to its historical monthly averages. In 2016, the Net Basin Supply to Lake Michigan-Huron was well above average in February and March. The NBS in March was the most remarkable in that time period, as it was the 5th highest in March since Substantially contributing to the high NBS was 3.98 inches of precipitation, the 3 rd highest amount received by the lake in March since In addition, runoff, the other NBS component that positively contributes to NBS, was 20% above average, while evaporation, the NBS component that subtracts from NBS, was 35% below average. Nevertheless, the net basin supply to Lake Michigan-Huron was below average the last 4 months of the year, 7 out of the last 8 months of the year, and in a total of 8 months. Despite the dry supplies to end the year, the inflow from Lake Superior has been above average all year, which has contributed to water Figure 4: Lake Michigan-Huron Residual Net Basin Supply Lake St. Clair Heart-shaped and shallow Lake St. Clair is the smallest lake in the Great Lakes system, Lake St. Clair remained well above average throughout all of The lake started 2016 at a level of feet, 9 inches above its level in January 2015, and remained above 2015 levels through June. In December, it was at the identical level as it was in December 2015, but nearly 2 feet above its level in December of 2012, the year when the lake was well below average and did not experience a seasonal rise. Moreover, when comparing the lake s monthly levels in 2016 with its corresponding monthly LTA levels, Lake St. Clair Page 3

4 was an average of 14 inches above LTA in In addition, in the winter of , the lake did not experience a significant and prolonged drop in level caused by ice jamming in the St. Clair River that restricts flow into the lake. The accumulation of ice was far less significant last winter due to well above average temperatures during the winter, likely the result of the historic El Niño. average. Lake Erie NBS was above average in February and March, but was above average only once in the last 9 months. The above average inflow from Lake Michigan-Huron contributed to keeping water levels above the LTA, even with low NBS. Precipitation received by Lake Erie in 2016 was 5% below average. Figure 5: Lake St. Clair Water Levels Figure 6: Lake Erie Water Levels Lake Erie Lake Erie s level was above average throughout In January, at a level of feet, the lake was 3 inches above its level of a year ago, but by December, its level matched what it was in December The lake s peak level was 4 inches lower than it was in 2015, and the peak occurred in May, two months earlier than in However, Lake Erie s 2015 peak was the result of record-high precipitation in June of that year. The lake s 2016 seasonal rise in late winter and spring was 17 inches, 3 inches above average. When comparing the lake s monthly levels in 2016 with its corresponding monthly LTA levels, Lake Erie was an average of 11 inches above LTA in The monthly NBS to Lake Erie was variable in There were 3 months in which the NBS was above average, 4 months in which it was near average, and 5 months in which it was below Figure 7: Lake Erie Residual Net Basin Supply Lake Ontario Lake Ontario was the only lake that was not above its long-term average for all of It was above LTA levels the first 5 months of the year, but hovered around 2 to 3 inches below LTA for the remainder of the year. Its January 2016 level of feet was about 3 inches above what it was 12 months earlier, but by July it was 10 inches Page 4

5 below its level of a year ago. In general, the lake was above its 2015 levels the first half of the year, and below its 2015 levels the second half of Nevertheless, by December, the lake s level nearly matched its December 2015 level. Lake Ontario s seasonal rise of 24 inches was nearly identical to its average annual seasonal rise of 23 inches. The lake s level peaked in April but it usually peaks in June. The early peak was due to the precipitation to the lake being about 40% below average in April, May, June, and July. The NBS to Lake Ontario was at or above average the first 3 months of the year. The NBS in February was nearly 50% above average with precipitation and runoff both nearly 50% above average. The high runoff was likely due to precipitation falling as rain and snowpack melting soon after landfall as a result of consistently above average temperatures last winter. Lake Ontario NBS, however, was below average in 8 of the last 9 months. Also, precipitation to Lake Ontario was 10% below average in In fact, in 6 different months in 2016, the precipitation was less than 65% of its corresponding historical monthly average. Figure 9: Lake Ontario Residual Net Basin Supply El Niño Effects on the Great Lakes during the Winter Photo 1: The Coast Guard ice-cutter, the Mackinaw, arrives in ice-free Duluth Harbor, January 7 th, 2016 Figure 8: Lake Ontario Water Levels El Niño is characterized by above average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is one phase of a recurring climate pattern called the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The other 2 phases are La Niña, in which sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are below normal, and ENSO-neutral, when sea surface temperatures are near normal. The El Niño and La Niña phases shift back and forth every two to seven years, and each phase has different impacts on climate conditions worldwide. The effects of El Niño tend to have the greatest influence during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Page 5

6 In the United States, El Niño generally brings below average temperatures and above average precipitation to the southern tier of the United States from California to the Atlantic Coast. In the northern tier of the United States, El Niño causes generally above average temperatures. A study by the National Weather Service (NWS) on the impact of El Niño on climate in the lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region during winter noted a general trend of above average temperatures and below normal precipitation. Below is an image from the Illinois State Water Survey demonstrating a typical weather pattern in the winter during El Niño. consistently above normal temperatures to the Midwest. Figure 11: Temperature analysis of the average of daily temperature anomaly in December 2015 and January & February 2016 Figure 11 shows that the average daily temperature from December to February was 2 to 4 degrees Celsius (4 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in the Great Lakes basin. These warm temperatures resulted in relatively limited formation of ice on all of the Great Lakes, a sharp contrast to the 2 previous winters. Figure 10: Impact of El Niño on weather conditions in North America The Oscillation Niño Index (ONI) measures the strength of the El Niño. It is defined as the 3-month running mean of the departure from average of ocean surface temperature in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. An ONI of positive 2.0 indicates a very strong El Niño. The El Niño peaked at an ONI of 2.3 in the November-December-January timeframe, which matched the highest ONI on record. The very strong El Niño of significantly impacted the weather in the Great Lakes region during last winter, as it brought Figure 12 shows the peak ice coverage on Lake Michigan was 12% below average in the winter of This plot is representative of the other Great Lakes. Figure 12: Annual Peak Ice Coverage on Lake Michigan over the past 10 years Page 6

7 The warmer than average temperatures also prevented significant accumulation of snowpack as more precipitation fell as rain, and the snow that did fall melted during the winter months due to the regular occurrence of above freezing temperatures. new set of rules and limits, called Plan 2014, to regulate St. Lawrence River flows and Lake Ontario levels. Plan 2014 went into effect in January The old regulation plan, called plan 1958-D, had been in place since The Saint Lawrence Seaway is a binational system of dams, locks, canals, and channels built in the St. Lawrence River between 1954 and 1959 to allow for passage of ocean-going vessels to the Great Lakes, to substantially reduce flooding, and to develop significant hydroelectric power capability for both countries. Plan 1958-D was developed to regulate the outflow for Lake Ontario in order to achieve those goals. Figure 13: SNODAS Snow Water Equivalent around Lake Superior for Winter to Winter The peak Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) in the winter of in the Lake Superior basin was the 2 nd lowest since SWE indicates the amount of snow there would be in a liquid state. The other lakes experienced either their lowest or second-lowest peak SWE since the SNODAS record began in 2009.The strong El Niño impacted Great Lakes water levels as well. Both Lake Superior and Lake Michigan-Huron rose from November 2015 to December Historically, both lakes fall an average of 3 inches from November to December. Runoff was above average in December, so the mild temperatures likely resulted in more rain and early melting of snow. Although a general trend of below average precipitation in the Great Lakes region has been linked to El Niño, no pattern of below average precipitation developed in the winter of A New Direction in Lake Ontario and St. Lawrence River Regulation In December 2016, the International Joint Commission (IJC) approved implementation of a Photo 2: The Long Sault Dam is one of the structures that regulates St. Lawrence River flow While the implementation of Plan 1958-D resulted in many significant benefits, it also caused adverse environmental impacts to native plant life, fish, and other wildlife. Plan 2014 is the culmination of an effort that began in 2000 to address these environmental concerns and to prepare for climate change. The main departure of Plan 2014 from Plan D is to allow for a wider range of water levels on Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River. The IJC s website explains, Plan 1958D with Page 7

8 deviations (Plan 1958DD), has unnaturally compressed water levels and harmed coastal ecosystems on Lake Ontario and the upper St. Lawrence River. These impacts were not understood when the project was approved. The website continues, Plan 2014 is designed to provide for more natural variations of water levels of Lake Ontario and the St. Lawrence River that are needed to restore ecosystem health, which will help restore plant diversity and habitat for fish and wildlife. In addition, the website states that Plan 2014, will continue to moderate extreme high and low levels, better maintain system-wide levels for navigation, frequently extend the recreational boating season and slightly increase hydropower production. More year-to-year variation in water levels improves coastal health. For more in-depth information on Plan 2014, visit the following website. The International Lake Ontario-St. Lawrence River Board (ISLRBC) is tasked with executing Plan 2014, as well as developing regulation plans and conducting special studies requested by the IJC. ISLRBC s website is:. More Information Update articles will be included in various editions of the Monthly Bulletin highlighting topics of interest and explanations relevant to Great Lakes water levels. February s Monthly Bulletin will typically include an annual summary of conditions from the prior year. This year, look for more general topics to be covered. On deck will be a look at coastal processes caused by waves and fluctuating water levels and an explanation of lake effect snow. These subjects will be covered in the early summer and late fall. The Monthly Bulletin is sent by postal mail. To be added to the postal mailing list, please send an to hhpm@usace.army.mil or call and select option 1. Alternatively, the Monthly Bulletin can be viewed on our website. In addition to the Monthly Bulletin, the Detroit District issues the Weekly Great Lakes Water Level Update and the Weekly Great Lakes Connecting Channels Water Levels and Depths. Both products are updated each Thursday, and can be located, along with the Monthly Bulletin, here: ation/greatlakeswaterlevels/waterlevelforecast.aspx Also available is the Great Lakes Water Level Outlook, which is produced quarterly and is a 12 month simulation of water levels given any number of different climate scenarios. The Detroit District also has a Facebook page which can be found here: Army-Corps-of-Engineers/ The Detroit District welcomes comments on all of our forecast products. Please questions and comments to hhpm@usace.army.mil. To contact the District by phone call toll free and select option 1. The Detroit District s mailing address is: Department of the Army Detroit District Corps of Engineers ATTN: CELRE-EHW 477 Michigan Avenue Detroit, MI Page 8

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