Adaptation by Design: The Impact of the Changing Climate on Infrastructure
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1 Adaptation by Design: The Impact of the Changing Climate on Infrastructure Heather Auld, J Klaassen, S Fernandez, S Eng, S Cheng, D MacIver, N Comer Adaptation and Impacts Research Division Environment Canada Global Temperatures Will Continue to Rise Source: IPCC 2007 (WGI/AR4) 1
2 PURPOSE of INFRASTRUCTURE Purpose of infrastructure to protect the life, health, psychological and social welfare of all of its inhabitants from the weather elements Trillions in civil infrastructure holdings Construct on assumption that past climate extremes will represent future conditions Climatic design values/assumptions WHAT WE DO KNOW ABOUT CHANGING EXTREMES - Scientific Agreement THE FUTURE: Increased moisture, with increased precipitation intensity. Extreme precipitation will change more than means. Increase in mean temperatures - more extreme high temperatures and less extreme low temperatures. More severe droughts when they occur. Stronger of hurricanes could become more severe, with greater wind speeds and more intense rainfalls Poleward shift of mid-latitude storm tracks, with a tendency for more intense but perhaps fewer storms 2
3 Heating,Cooling,Trends in annual mean of daily maximum temperature C / 54 yrs Lucie Vincent, Climate Research Branch, EC Blue and red dots indicate trends significant at the 5% confidence level. Crosses denote non-significant trends. Heating, Insulation and Trends in annual mean of Heating Degree Days : Winter Warming & Lower HDDs days / 54 yrs BUT Greatest variability in HDD in southern Ontario also occurred during the 1990s Record/Near Record Maximum Winter HDD at several locations in 1994 Blue and red dots indicate trends Lucie Vincent, Climate Research Branch, EC significant at the 5% confidence level. Crosses denote nonsignificant trends. 3
4 Warming Winters, Increasing Freeze-Thaw Cycles and Premature Deterioration/Weathering: Ottawa 2 C warming increases from 41 days to 45 days (compared to 34 days for entire period) Freeze-thaw cycle days have increased: Averaging 41 days for the period compared to 34 days for the entire period Stormwater Infrastructure, Weathering and Trends in Number of Days with Measurable Rainfall: More Days with Rain days / 54 yrs Green and brown dots indicate trends significant at the 5% confidence level. Crosses denote non-significant trends. Eva Mekis, Climate Research Branch, EC 4
5 Regional Changes in Precipitation GETTING WETTER NON-LINEAR WETTER WETTER Canada s Climate and its Extremes are Changing The past will not project the future Climatic design values based on historical data will become less and less helpful. However, knowledge of the past is essential to understanding how risk is changing. Trends in the number of days with precipitation 95th percentile for period days / 54 yrs Eva Mekis, Climate Research Branch, EC 5
6 CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS: Probability of daily extreme precipitation events to increase by AT LEAST a factor of 2 by end 21 st century Before end of century, current 50-year return period rainfall event could be expected at least every 25-years Source: Environment Canada, CCCma 2007 CLIMATE, INFRASTRUCTURE and DISASTERS Small Increases Escalating Infrastructure Damages small increases in weather and climate extremes have the potential to bring large increases in damages to existing infrastructure Climate Change could significantly impact infrastructure, depending on robustness of existing climatic design values 6
7 Codes, Standards and Climate Design Values Design Loads Ground Snow Loads Wind Pressures Ice and Wind Loads Design Rain Intensities, Loads Cold/hot temperatures, humidities, HDDs Energy datasets Elements 50 yr return pd snowpack 50, 100 yr return pd wind gusts (+ cladding) 50 year return pd wind and ice loads, wind loads, ice only loads 50 yr return period One Day & 15 minute rain amounts 95 & 99% temperatures and wet bulb temperatures Energy efficient design WHAT NEXT? Range of adaptation actions from no regrets to EMERGING and NEW No regrets adaptation actions, such as: Updated & improved climatic design values for existing climate; Analyses for existing measures (tornado proofing); Monitor climate trends to identify most at risk regions; Improve codes & standards incorporate changing climate; Undertake forensic studies of failures power outages; Infrastructure weathering and maintenance guidelines? Better disaster management Weather Warnings? Land use? Implement the win-win solutions e.g. energy efficiency. 7
8 No Regrets Update and Improve Climatic Design Values, Monitor Trends, Maintenance Improve existing climatic design values; Review outdated assumptions & update values regularly; Monitor trends & identify regions most at risk to the changing climate (e.g. North) Review maintenance practices winter roads, buildings, weathering processes Forensic studies of high impact events (adaptation lessons) Disaster Management Provide Hazards Information on the Changing Climate 8
9 And NEW Adaptation Actions Further adaptation actions will be needed: Incorporate future climate projections into codes & standards; Develop new climate tools and guidance, especially for extremes; Engineering to retrofit vulnerable structures; New structural materials and engineering practices; Work with lifespan planning; diversified lifetimes. WHERE and WHEN to START? PRIORITIES? Incorporation of Climate Change into Codes and Standards Updating climatic design values for codes/standards, as resources allow Next cycle of NBCC to consider climate change futures, where feasible measures to be determined CSA studying implications for many standards Matrix of climate change impacts for climatic loads and science work 9
10 What climate change guidance is needed? CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS NEED TO BE VERIFIED Observed Site Temperatures at Ottawa A vs Climate Model Projected Temperatures for grid cell Too cool Courtesy: Neil Comer, Env Canada 10
11 Annual Trend in Temperature for Iqaluit Downscaled station raw Some gridcell extreme rainfall indices for Toronto SUMMER (J-J-A) (A1B scenario) simple daily intensity index (% change in 2050s) 95th percentile rainfall (% change in 2050s) model / scenario model / scenario 5 day max precip (% change in 2050s) Daily intensities Daily extreme rainfall 5 Day max rainfall model / scenario 11
12 City of Ottawa By-Law Winter Road & Sidewalk Maintenance Exploring new technologies and practices Sharing successes Consider new fleets, equipment and materials; new practices snow, ice, flooding, flash freezing, road repair Tracks of Tracks Major of the Ice major Storms ice storms which which impacted Northern U.S. impacted bordering Northern Southern Ontario U.S. during States Bordering Southern Ontario during the period Ontario storms 24 northern US storms PERSISTENT ARCTIC HIGH 1 2 see separate graphic 1948 Jan Nov Feb Dec Feb Feb Dec Mar Jan Mar Feb Feb Mar Jan Jan Jan 31 Communications tower collapse 12 hour storm motion Centre of the storm 12
13 Changes in Frequency of Freezing Rain Storm Patterns (Dec-Feb) by 2050s for Toronto & Ottawa % Change ( to ) CGCM1 CGCM2-A2 CGCM2-B2 GFDL-A2 Toronto Ottawa Toronto Ottawa Toronto Ottawa 0 Frz Rain >=4 hrs Source: Cheng et al Frz Rain >=6 hrs Temporal distributions of the 5-year average snow storm sizes and the intensity values for Increased frequency and losses from larger snow storms (From Changnon 2008) 13
14 RAINFALL EVENTS: Projected Rainfall Extremes Under Warm Season Weather Patterns (+ antecedent rainfalls) st bar: nd bar: rd bar: Averaged for 4 southern Ontario basins Warm season Percentage Change >Trace 15 mm 25 mm Number of Days Seasonal Rainfall Total Greatest increases (30-50%) in the heavier rainfall days (>=25 mm) U.S. Fatalities due to wind-related hazards, Tropical system fatalities only include those deaths due to wind. (Ashley and Black, JAMC, 2007) Convective Synoptic Tropical 14
15 Extreme Winds and the Changing Climate: Approaches Sensitivity analyses update values, identify regions where wind extremes, trends exceed climate design values, define tornado prone areas Forensic analyses of high impact wind events - thresholds, breaking points, model(s) validations, tiered warnings Climate model verification & downscaling via extreme wind processes Convective, Synoptic, Tropical, Mixed Influence of atmospheric variability/oscillations Feasibility of fine scale weather models and other downscaling methods to spatially interpolate extreme winds? Consultations with national committees underway. The approximate number of times "moderate and high intensity" thunderstorm derechos affected points in the United States during the years Areas affected by 3 or more derecho events are shaded in yellow, orange, and red. (modified from Coniglio nd Stensrud 2004). 15
16 Other Extremes are changing e.g. intense hurricanes (from Science, 2005) Evidence exists for increases in both severe droughts and heavy rains in many regions making it likely that hydrologic conditions have already become more intense (IPCC, 2007). Conclusions Under changing climate conditions The past will not project the future BUT, knowledge of the past is needed to understand how risk is changing and to prepare for the future. No regrets disaster risk reduction & updated climatic design values for infrastructure design reduce vulnerability to hazards today and an effective strategy for reducing future risks. Due diligence requires the consideration of several projections. It is critical not to rely on any single model or scenario for decision making. Climate changes are happening faster than we realize. We need to ADAPT as soon as possible. 16
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