WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

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1 WMO WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC ESCAP WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES THIRTY FIFTH SESSION Manama, Bahrain (5 to 9 May 2008) FINAL REPORT

2 GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE SESSION 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION The thirty fifth session of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones hosted by WMO was held at WMO Office for West Asia, UN House, Manama, Kingdom of Bahrain from 5 to 9 May Attendance The session was attended by 18 participants from six (out of eight) Members of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones, namely, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It was also attended by observers from China, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi, Bahrain Meteorological Service, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and representatives from WMO, UNESCAP and Technical Support Unit (TSU). The list of participants in the session as well as the capacities in which they attended is given in Appendix I. OPENING OF THE SESSION (Agenda item 1) 1.1 The opening ceremony commenced at 09:30 a.m. on Monday, 5 May 2008 at the WMO Office for West Asia. 1.2 Mr Abdullahi Majeed, Deputy Minister of Environment, Energy and Water of Maldives and Chairman of the Panel, declared the session open. 1.3 Mr A.Majeed H.Isa, Permanent Representative of Bahrain with WMO and President of Regional Association II of WMO, welcomed the participants and extended the warmest greetings. He emphasized that the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea are characterized by the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclone related disasters, which claim many lives and inflict heavy damages in the region every year. Mr. Isa recognized the role of the Panel in reducing losses caused by tropical cyclones and highlighted its well organized activities under the spirit of cooperation among the Panel Members. He expressed his gratitude to the Panel for its firm commitment to mitigation of tropical cyclone disasters and urged the Panel to continue its efforts to improve the quality of life of the people in the region. 1.4 Speaking on behalf of UNESCAP, Mr Ti Le Huu expressed his sincere appreciation to the Regional Office for West Asia of WMO for hosting this session in Manama, Bahrain and the Government of Kingdom of Bahrain for providing logistical supports. He noted important achievements by the Panel Members in mitigating socio economic impact of cyclone related disasters during the past two decades, from about 18,200 people killed annually during the decade to about 2,100 people annually during the past seven years, from 2000 to He also noted, however, the severe impact of Cyclone Sidr, which hit Bangladesh last year, and Cyclone Nargis, which hit Myanmar on 1 May The large number of fatalities by these two cyclones raised a number of issues that deserve our attention and called for renewed cooperation to address not only saving lives, but also contributing to poverty reduction and improving quality of life. In that context, he expressed satisfaction with the presence of a strong team from the Department of Disaster Mitigation and Prevention of the Royal Kingdom of Thailand, headed by its Director General, to the 35th Session, to reflect the commitment of Thailand has agreed to assume the Chair of the Working Group on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness, as had been agreed at the 34th Session. He also expressed sincere appreciation to the Government of Pakistan for the continuing support in hosting the Technical Support Unit of the Panel and in providing the services of a coordinator and a meteorologist to support the activities of the Panel since 2000 and to the Government of India for its continuing technical assistance in providing the

3 2 services of the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tropical Cyclone New Delhi for the valuable support extended to all Members of the Panel. 1.5 Speaking on behalf of Mr Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of WMO, Dr Tokiyoshi Toya, Regional Director for Asia and the South West Pacific, welcomed all the participants and expressed his appreciation to the Government of the Kingdom of Bahrain through Mr Majeed Isa, president of RA II and Permanent Representative of Bahrain with WMO, and to Mr Aqa, UN Resident Coordinator in Bahrain for substantial support being provided to the activities of the WMO Office for West Asia, which enabled the thirty fifth session to be held in Manama, Bahrain. In referring to some key activities carried out by the WMO Office for West Asia since its inauguration in March 2007, he stressed the significant meaning of holding the first meeting at this Office to demonstrate its contributions to the Members in the Region. With emphasis on the important role the Panel is playing in tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting, warning, and disaster risk reduction services, Dr Toya stressed that collaborations and synergies among Panel Members should be consolidated and the role and functions of RSMC New Delhi be strengthened, as well as the hydrological component of the Panel. In ensuring WMO s continued support to Panel s efforts to mitigate impacts and risks of tropical cyclone related disasters, he wished the participants a very successful session and a pleasant stay in Bahrain. 1.6 Mr. Sayed Aqa, UN Resident Coordinator and UNDP Resident Representative in Bahrain welcomed the participants and expressed his pleasure for holding the meeting at UN House in Bahrain which demonstrates the spirit of cooperation among the various UN agencies. He, further, noted the excellent contribution of the newly established WMO Office for West Asia in supporting the efforts of the UN team in delivering services to the region. Mr. Aqa took this opportunity to express his gratitude to the Government of Kingdom of Bahrain for their recent contribution of US$ one million towards the UN Secretary General s Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction that is coordinated by ISDR. The Report is planned to be launched in May 2009 in Bahrain. 2. ELECTION OF THE CHAIRMAN AND VICE CHAIRMAN (Agenda item 1.2) Election of the Chairman and Vice chairman of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones 2.1 Mr Abdullahi Majeed (Maldives) and Mr. Thosakdi Vanichkajorn (Thailand) were unanimously elected as Chairman and Vice chairman of the Panel, respectively, to hold their posts until the next session. Election of the Chairman of the Drafting Committee 2.2 Mr G.B. Samarasinghe (Sri Lanka) was elected as Chairman of the drafting committee. 3. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA (Agenda item 3) The Panel adopted the agenda as given in Appendix II. 4. WORKING ARRANGEMENTS (Agenda item 4) The Panel decided on its working hours and the arrangements for the session. 5. FOLLOW UP ACTION ON PTC 34 (Agenda item 5) 5.1 A detailed review of the recommendations of the thirty fourth session and their follow up action taken was carried out based on the action sheet shown in Appendix III.

4 3 5.2 The Panel was informed by WMO that the study on suitable conversion factors between the wind speeds of different time frame has been delayed and the main report and the one page summary of the report will be finalized during the late As regards to manuals on flood forecasting, those on Low Flow Estimation and Prediction and Stream Gauging will be published during On the subject of training activites within the framework of TCDC, Pakistan informed the Panel that presently two particpants from each of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka have been attending Preliminary Meteorology Course (BIP MT) in Pakistan. The course is fully funded by the Government of Pakistan. Pakistan also expressed its commitment to the continuation of such training in the future. 5.4 The Panel requested the Members responsible for the ongoing actions, to continue their efforts towards early achievement. 6. REVIEW OF THE 2007 CYCLONE SEASON (Agenda item 6) 6.1 The Director of RSMC New Delhi presented a review of the 2007 cyclone season on the basis of the comprehensive report entitled Report on Cyclonic Disturbances over North Indian Ocean during 2007 which was distributed during the session. 6.2 The Director of RSMC New Delhi informed the Panel that the year 2007 was a year of near normal cyclonic activity over north Indian Ocean. The basin witnessed the formation of twelve cyclonic disturbances against a normal of fifteen. Out of twelve disturbances, five intensified upto the intensity of deep depressions and two into cyclonic storms and one each into very severe cyclonic storm and super cyclonic storm. One cyclonic storm YEMYIN, a super cyclonic storm GONU, and one deep depression formed over the Arabian Sea. However, this deep depression dissipated over the sea itself. The Bay of Bengal witnessed the formation of one very severe cyclonic storm SIDR, one cyclonic storm AKASH, four deep depressions and three depressions during the 2007 cyclone season. 6.3 The summary report on the 2007 cyclone season provided by the RSMC is given in Appendix IV. 6.4 The Panel expressed its appreciation to the RSMC New Delhi for the continued valuable contribution it was making to its Members, and emphasized the importance of further strengthening the existing cooperation and collaboration between the national warning centres and RSMC New Delhi. In this context, many Members expressed the view that it is necessary to secure direct communications between the RSMC and the national warning center of the Member coutries and to establish the point of contact on both sides. 6.4 The representatives of the Panel Members reported to the session a review of the 2007 cyclone season of their respective countries, summaries of which are given in Appendix V. 7. COORDINATION WITH OTHER ACTIVITIES OF THE WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME (Agenda item 7) 7.1 The Panel was informed by the WMO Secretariat that the 15th WMO Congress (Geneva, May 2007) discussed Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) from a broad perspective. Major guidance given from the Congress is represented by the following key points: 1) To continue to give priority to capacity building, particularly in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs); 2) To promote cooperation with relevant WMO programmes such as DRR, PWS, MMOP, HWR and AREP;

5 4 3) To facilitate participation of hydrologists and DRR experts in the regular sessions of the five tropical cyclone regional bodies; 4) To pursue recommendations from the Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC VI). TCP s activities during the inter sessional period in 2007 and 2008 were implemented based on this guidance and contributed to various outcomes of WMO Strategic Plan, in particular Expected Result (ER) I (better forecasts and warnings) and ER VI (Multi hazard early warning and DRR). 7.2 The Panel was also informed that during the reporting period, the 40th session ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee was held in Macao, China from 21 to 26 November Currently, arrangements are underway for the 35th session WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (5 9 May 2008, Bahrain), 12th session of RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee (18 24 July 2008, Niue) and 18th session of RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee (6 10 October 2008, Malawi). Under the guidance as above, TCP is collaborating closely with DRR programme to promote involvement of DRR community in these sessions. 7.3 The Panel was pleased to note that various training programmes were arranged by TCP to address the issue of sustainable development of NMHSs. In particular, RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warning (Miami, USA, April 2008 & 7 19 April 2008) and Southern Hemisphere Training Course on Tropical Cyclones and Workshop on PWS (Melbourne, Australia,10 21 October 2007) were organized in cooperation with Public Weather Services Programme and highly valued for the practical training for operational forecasting as well as media skills. A similar event is planned jointly with PWS to be held in the Typhoon Committee region as a roving seminar in Attachment training was carried out by 4 RSMCs including RSMC Nadi, which hosted the training for the first time despite of its unfavorable operational situation. The Indian Institute of Technology Delhi hosted the attachment training for storm surge experts for the consecutive 7 years. 7.4 The Panel noted that TCP are making efforts also to promote application of research findings to operations in cooperation with AREP. International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction was held in Guangzhou, China in March 2007 and the RA I Regional Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Research will be held in La Réunion next month. 7.5 The Panel noted with pleasure that TCP has undertaken the update of Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting to respond to the recommendation of IWTC VI. A new structure is currently under review based on the two major concepts: 1) It should be published primarily as a Web version in view of cost saving and easier access; 2) It should have linkages with associated hazards (storm surge, flash flood, etc.) from a multi hazard point of view. Noting that update of the Global Guide is a long standing issuen and highly beneficial to the Members, the Panel requested WMO to publish the new version as early as possible. 7.6 The Panel was informed that the scope of the Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting has been reviewed by TCP. This workshop aims to enable trainees to run operational wave and storm surge forecasting. Origin of the workshop is traced to Storm Surge Workshop in the South China Sea which was held in 2002 in Viet Nam in cooperation with Typhoon Committee. Since then, the workshop was held four times mainly for the Members in RA II and RA V regions. During the years, storm surge operation has been initiated at several NMHSs. TCP, in cooperation with MMOP, plans to expand its target region to all TC regions to include RA IV and RA I. The Fifth workshop is planned tentatively to be held in Melbourne, Australia in December The Panel was informed that completion of the Study on the Wind Averaging Guideline has been delayed. A main report, which was submitted by the Systems

6 5 Engineering Australia Pty Ltd (SEA) in January 2008, is currently under review by TCP Technical Coordination Meeting and a one page summary for inclusion in operational manuals is being produced by SEA. In this regard, the Committee expressed a view that establishment of the Wind Averaging Guidelines are particularly required for the Hurricane Committee region where different averaging standards are applied to wind speed observations. The Committee requested the WMO Secretariat to finalize this study as early as possible and to bring the results for discussion at the next session of the Committee before they could be integrated into the Operational Plan. The Panel expressed its appreciation for the comprehensive information provided by the WMO Secretariat on the implementation of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP). It noted with satisfaction the developments and progress made in both the general and the regional components of the TCP since the thirty fourth session. 8. REVIEW OF THE COORDINATED TECHNICAL PLAN AND CONSIDERATION OF THE WORK PROGRAMME FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (Agenda item 8) The Panel reaffirmed the necessity of early re establishment of the Coordinated Technical Plan and Work Programme which has been pending since the last session. It agreed to assign this task to the High Policy Working Group (PWG), which was set up during this session, and requested the Working Group to present a draft at the next session (see para ). 8.1 Meteorological component (agenda item 8.1) Under this item, Members were invited to present reports on the current progress in dealing with problems encountered and on programmes for the modernization of observing and telecommunication networks and forecasting systems, aiming at further improvements in tropical cyclone monitoring, forecasting and warning services. The Panel reviewed the activities under the meteorological component of the Members during the past year, details of which are presented in Appendix V The Panel was informed that according to the results of Special MTN Monitoring (SMM) exercises carried out in January, April, July and October 2006 and 2007, the availability of SYNOP reports from a total of 252 surface stations in the Regional Basic Synoptic Network (RBSN) of the Panel Members ranged from 45 to 100 per cent. The availability was more than 74 per cent for all countries, except for Myanmar (45 per cent). The total availability in 2007 was similar to that of 2006; there is a significant increase in the number of reports received from Pakistan and a significant decrease in the number of reports received from Myanmar The availability of expected TEMP reports on the MTN from a total of 53 upper air stations in the RBSN operated by the Members ranged from 0 to 58 per cent. The availability was less than 25 per cent for Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan. There was a significant decrease in the number of reports received in 2007 in comparison with 2006, in particular from India and Pakistan The Panel was informed that overall numbers of observations of AMDAR aircraft ranged from 230,000 to 250,000 per day. However, there has been limited progress in AMDAR programme in this region and a fresh attempt to find actively participating NMS's and airlines in the region is needed. The underlying infrastructure appeared to be excellent, with Emirates and other regional airlines acquiring new and ACARS equipped aircraft in large numbers and the regional network is expanding rapidly. A strong commitment from NMHSs would be needed for a kick start of the process As regards Water Vapour project, most of the sensors installed on a test basis are flown in the US. Three Lufthansa Airbus 319 currently testing the sensor are on short and medium haul aircraft, and do not serve the larger Gulf region. Further tests are being carried

7 6 out and significant funding issues need to be resolved before a widespread installation of such sensors can be expected The Panel noted that the next AMDAR Panel meeting will be held in Malaysia in October 2008, and is expected that the existing SE Asian project will be able to expand towards the Gulf and Bay of Bengal regions The Panel was informed that the Members continued to provide extensive support for ocean observation programmes such as the Voluntary Observing Ship (VOS), the Ship Of Opportunity Programme (SOOP), the Automated Shipboard Aerological Programme (ASAP), the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS), the Data Buoy Cooperation Panel (DBCP), and the Argo profiling floats. They also provide support to climatic projects like the Marine Climatological Summaries Scheme (MCSS), the Global Temperature Salinity Profile Programme (GTSPP), and the VOS Climate Project (VOSClim) The Panel noted with pleasure that Implementation of marine observing network in the region has continued to expand, thanks to prominent role of the Members in the region. The Tropical Moored Buoy network is being extended across the Indian Ocean (15 of 47 sites have been deployed) to complete a coverage of the equatorial regions of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans the heat engine of global climate and weather patterns With respect to the space based observing system related to tropical cyclones specifically, the Panel noted that operational or R&D satellites are particularly useful for the detection, monitoring and structure characterization of tropical cyclones and for predicting their evolution. Observations of particular relevance are the permanent high resolution visible and infrared imagery from geostationary spacecraft, microwave sounding from LEO satellites (e.g. with AMSU instrument) to derive total precipitable water, microwave imagery associated with active microwave sensors for precipitation rate (like TRMM and the future GPM), as well as scatterometry altimetry and/or microwave imagery to derive ocean surface wind fields (e.g. with Quikscat, Jason 1, or METOP/ASCAT) and sea state The Panel expressed a concern about possible discontinuation of sea surface wind observations by satellites over the next decade. Noting that this data is indispensable to monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones, the Panel urged relevant space agencies to give due consideration on the continuation of this service The representative of IIT informed the Panel that a forecast demonstration project is planned to be carried out from 2009 to 2011 by IMD with the support of Indo US S&T Forum in New Delhi and National Scientific Foundation (NSF) in USA. The objective of the project is to reduce the error in landfall forecast in the Bay of Bengal. Consolidated observations from aircraft, ship, space, data buoys and surface will be used in this project during cyclone period Many Members emphasized that availability of NWP products is essential for tropical cyclone forecast operations and expressed that the EPSgrams provided by the Europian Center for Mediam Range Forecast (ECMWF) are extremely useful in this regard. 8.2 Hydrological Component (agenda item 8.2) Under the hydrological component, the Panel reviewed the activities of its Members, WMO and UNESCAP. The representatives of the Members reported the activities of their respective countries as reflected in Appendix V. In 2007, several important improvements in the hydrological component had been made in the Panel Members, including the development of integrated flood forecasting systems, real time monitoring of water level and rainfall, risk mapping and participation of stakeholders in flood warning systems.

8 The Panel noted with appreciation to the strong spirit of cooperation among the concerned Members of international river basins in the region on the exchange of hydrological data, especially for flood forecasting. In noting that such a strong spirit of international cooperation in other international river basins could effectively lead to not only saving lives, but also conducive environment for economic development and ultimately to building trust for major investment, the Panel was pleased to note the willingness of the delegations of Bangladesh and India to seek authorization from their respective Governments to organize a regional workshop to enable all the agencies involved in flood forecasting operations to discuss specific joint activities aiming at enhancing further the flood forecasting services for socio economic development. In this context, the Panel called on UNESCAP, WMO and other international organizations to provide financial and technical assistance to organize such a regional workshop. In this connection, the Panel noted that the delegations of Bangladesh and India will inform UNESCAP and WMO through the TSU of the decisions by their respective Governments within six weeks after the Session, for further arrangements. Activities of UNESCAP In 2007, ESCAP took an active part in the preparation and organization of the First Asia Pacific Water Summit, which was held in Beppu, Japan in December The most important activities were carried out under the framework of Key Results Area 4 on Monitoring of Investment and Results, for which ESCAP was the Team Leader. As the Team Leader, ESCAP was able to mobilize support and participation of a good number of UN agencies, international organizations and most importantly several countries in the region. The preparation for Key Result Area 4 involved the organization of an website for discussion at the UNESCAP FAO joint website on Strategic Planning and Management, a regional workshop on Monitoring of Investment and Results, held as part of the Third South East Asia Water Forum in Kuala Lumpur in October 2007 and finally a parallel session at the First Asia Pacific Water Summit on 3 December The results of the preparation and recommendations are posted on the website of the Asia Pacific Water Forum, UNESCAP and the Third South East Asia Water Forum. It may be noted that monitoring of investment and results for water related disasters was included in the preparation for KRA In addition, UNESCAP was entrusted to be the regional coordinator for the implementation of the International Year of Sanitation 2008, which included a regional launching at the First Asia Pacific Water Summit and also in the commemoration of the World Water Day 2008, which was held in Bangkok on 20 March India took an active part in this activity. Activities of WMO RA II (Asia) Working Group on Hydrology (WGH) Interim progress reports have been received from experts of the Working Group on the following topics of its current work plan: Disaster Mitigation Improvements to Short duration (Flash) Flood Forecasting Capabilities in Urban Areas Disaster Management Climate Variability and Hydrological Aspects of Drought Water Resources Assessment, Availability and Use (Surface water and groundwater) in cooperation with UN ESCAP and IGRAC Improved Accuracy of Flow Measurements and Estimation in RA II. Full reports are expected to be available by August 2008.

9 The Working Group had its meeting March 2007 in Beijing, China. As a result of the meeting, participants proposed the following themes for its future Workplan to be considered by XIV RA II in December 2008: Theme 1: Theme 2: Theme 3: Theme 4: Theme 5: Theme 6: Theme 7: Improving Institutional Capacity including the implementation of the RA II Strategic Plan for NHSs and Technology Transfer in the context of HOMS Disaster Mitigation Implementation of the WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative including Flash Flood Forecasting Capabilities and Mass Movements Disaster Management Hydrological Aspects of Drought, including Drought Monitoring, Regional Water availability analysis, assessment of water scarcity and deficits Water Resources Assessment, Availability and Use (Surface water and groundwater) and Sedimentation in Rivers and Reservoirs Improved Accuracy of Hydrometric and Sediment Observations including Space based Technologies in RA II Hydrological responses to climate variability and change and promotion of the use of climate information by water managers Regional exchange of hydrological data and information including WHYCOS and contributions of regional aspects of INFOHYDRO The proposed themes would ensure continuity in key subject areas over the coming four years. Theme 6 is in particular addressing new needs and requirements and will need to be closely coordinated with other programme areas of WMO and RA II Working Groups. WMO s Commission for Hydrology (CHy) In the framework of its Quality Management Framework, the Commission has made dedicated efforts in the development of Manuals on Flood Forecasting and Warning, Low Flow Estimation and Prediction, Stream Gauging and PMP which are all in advanced stages of development and will be disseminated to Members once published With the financial and technical support from the Governments of Japan, the Netherlands and Switzerland, the Associated Programme on Flood Management (APFM) has been functioning under the guidance of its Advisory Committee, where CHy is represented by its President and one Regional Representative. It has been providing the crucial inputs to NHSs responsible for flood management, and has been providing WMO Members with flood management policy guidance. The APFM is presently developing various tools for facilitating implementation of IFM and is working on the establishment of a decentralized HelpDesk on IFM. The APFM and the other activities of the HWRP are contributing to the International Flood Initiative, which has been established jointly by UNESCO, WMO, ISDR, UNU and other partners such as IAHS and IAHR. The President of CHy is a member of the Advisory Committee of IFI, the first session of which was held on 26th January 2007 in Geneva. ICHARM acts as the secretariat for the IFI. An action Plan is under preparation. The APFM can be viewed under:

10 9 WMO s Flood Forecasting Initiative As an important milestone in the WMO Flood Forecasting Initiative, under which a number of workshops/activities were carried out during , a Synthesis Conference was organized in November 2007 in Geneva, which produced the Strategy and Action Plan for the Enhancement of Cooperation between National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Improved Flood Forecasting. The president of CHy chaired the Synthesis Conference. The strategy can be found in: documents/ffinitiativeplan.pdf. Cg XV, through its Resolution 21 on the subject, endorsed the Strategy and Action Plan Another important development in the implementation of the FFI has been the inclusion of the Implementation of the Flash Flood Guidance System (FFGS) project with a global coverage, in collaboration with the US National Weather Service, the US Hydrologic Research Centre and USAID/OFDA. First activities include preparations to establish regional system components in the Mekong River Basin. These will be followed by components in other regions. World Hydrological Cycle Observing System (WHYCOS) Programme The MEKONG HYCOS project is aiming to establish a regional flood information system over a period of five years. This project is fully funded by France as development partner. The first meeting of the Project Coordination Committee has been held in January 2008 in Hanoi, Vietnam. With the tendering process completed and the procurement stage imminent it is expected that the first batch of gauging stations and related equipments will be installed at the selected sites of the participating countries before the onset of the monsoon period The data generated will be fully used by the Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) of the Mekong River Commission who executes the project in collaboration with WMO. The FMMP has repeatedly sought closer contact to the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee to further seek ways to improve its pre warning and flood forecasting products. 8.3 Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) Component (Agenda item 8.3) Under this agenda item, the Panel reviewed the activities of its Members and discussed the related activities of WMO and UNESCAP. The representatives of the Members reported the situations on disaster mitigation and related disaster management activities of their respective countries in the past year and the future plans. The Panel noted with appreciations the participation of the DPP experts from the host country. In view of the importance of DPP for effective impacts of the Panel s activities, the Panel urged Members to send their DPP experts to take part in future sessions. In this connection, it decided to reestablish a Working Group on DPP (WG DPP) and renewed its invitation for Thailand and Oman to assume Chair and Vice Chair respectively. The Panel took note of the multi hazard early warning concept paper together with a draft work plan proposed by UNESCAP as had been requested by the Panel at its 34 th Session, as shown in Appendix VI. The Panel endorsed the concept paper and requested the Chair of WG DPP through to TSU to establish a Task Force to assist the WG DPP to implement the proposed Multi hazard early warning concept in cooperation with UNESCAP and WMO Most of the Panel Members continued their efforts to provide training to stakeholders to enhance awareness and participation. Summary of DPP activities of Panel Members is given in Appendix V. Activities of WMO The Panel was informed that in June 2007, WMO Congress XV adopted WMO Strategic Goals in disaster risk reduction, derived from key activities of the Hyogo Framework

11 10 for Action falling under the mandate of NMHSs. Furthermore, a sustainable DRR integrated capacity development action plan was approved, based on Members needs that were not currently addressed by ongoing activities and built upon the following five major thrusts: (i) modernization of NMHSs and observing networks; (ii) implementation of national operational multi hazard early warning systems; (iii) strengthening of hazard analysis and hydrometeorological risk assessment tools; (iv) strengthening NMHSs cooperation with civil protection and disaster risk management agencies; and (v) coordinated training and public outreach programmes. This action plan is built upon priority areas of the WMO Strategic Plan and is being implemented through concrete regional and national projects Following EWC III, with the commitment to advance the second priority area of the Hyogo Framework for Action, namely identifying, assessing and monitoring disaster risks and enhancing early warnings, WMO assembled experts from 20 agencies involved in the four components of early warning systems for the international Symposium on Multi Hazard Early Warning Systems for Integrated Disaster Risk Management, from 23 to 24 May The experts identified major gaps and needs concerning governance, legislative, organizational and technical aspects related to the four components of early warning systems: (i) risk identification and linkages to early warnings; (ii) technical and operational capacities for observing, detecting, monitoring, forecasting and warnings of hazards; (iii) communication and dissemination mechanisms; and (iv) integration of risk information and early warnings in emergency preparedness, planning and response The Symposium recommended that good practices be documented to demonstrate the benefits that can be achieved through an increased integration of National Meteorological and Hydrological Service warning and related services in emergency preparedness, response, recovery planning and operational processes. Demonstration projects have already been initiated with France and China (Shanghai) to demonstrate and document good practices where early warning systems are supported by appropriate governance and legislation, organizational coordination mechanisms and operational frameworks. The expert meeting on "Role of NMHSs in DRR Coordination Mechanisms and Early Warning Systems" provided a common framework for documentation of operational processes at the national level. As a next step, the Second Symposium on Multi hazard Early Warning Systems is planned for the first quarter of 2009, to be hosted by Météo France in Toulouse, to share lessons learned about multi hazard early warning systems and launch pilot projects in developing countries, together with agencies involved in all aspects from observing to community preparedness The Panel was informed that on this basis, WMO in now initiating demonstration projects in selected countries, leveraging capacities, resources and expertise from several technical and donor agencies for development of multi hazard early warning systems. The first coordination meeting for Central America took place in January 2008 in New Orleans. Activities of UNESCAP In 2007, UNESCAP in cooperation with the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) implemented Phase 4 of the project on Partnership for Disaster Reduction South East Asia, which was funded by the Humanitarian Aid Office of European Commission (ECHO). The project focused mainly on three countries of South East Asia to enhance the capacity of the National Disaster Management Offices in the promotion and implementation of community based disaster risk management (CBDRM) at the national level through the application of strategic planning and management for institutionalization of CBDRM and the implementation of pilot project on the integration of CBDRM into local development planning. At the end of the project, a regional workshop for disaster management practitioners was held in Phnom Penh from 2 to 4 April 2008 for experts and practitioners not only in South East Asia but also other countries in the region to come and share experiences. Experts from Bangladesh and India was also invited and participated in the Forum.

12 As part of the implementation of pilot community based tsunami projects implemented in India (on livelihood) and Sri Lanka (on early warning), a concluding workshop for sharing experience and promotion of partnership was organized in Bangkok from 21 to 23 April with several participants from the Panel Member countries took active part in the workshop, including Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. The findings and recommendations are expected to be submitted to the Third Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction to be held in Kuala Lumpur from 2 to 4 December The Panel Members were invited to join UNESCAP in the preparation for this Conference In 2007, UNESCAP also compiled regional experiences and practices on the integration of water related disaster preparedness and mitigation into development planning. These efforts culminated into a set of Guidelines, which had been published on the UNESCAP website. Members are invited to visit and download the publication for reference As practices in the previous years, UNESCAP in cooperation with partners organized the Annual Forum on Natural Disaster Reduction on 10 October 2007 to commemorate the International Day for Natural Disaster Reduction at the United Nations Conference Centre in Bangkok. The event included also a seminar on the theme Education on Disaster Risk Management for Socio economic Development at the Asia Pacific Regional Workshop on School Education and Disaster Risk Reduction UNESCAP in cooperation with SOPAC and other international organizations convened a side event on Problems of Disaster Risk Reduction in Island Countries of the Second Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction, held in New Delhi from 7 to 9 November Training component (agenda item 8.4) The Panel reviewed the involvement of its Members in various education and training activities supported under WMO Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP), regular budget (RB), UNDP and TCDC arrangements The Panel noted the number of training events and workshops, which were organized in 2007 for the benefit of its Members. Since its last meeting, the Panel had benefited from WMO s education and training activities, relating to the, relevant training courses, workshops and seminars, among those were the following: Training Course on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecasting at RSMC Tropical Cyclone New Delhi (RSMC New Delhi, India, 29 January 9 February 2007) ), this training course is aimed at on site training for operational forecasters and was attended by three participants. WMO International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction (Guangzhou, China, March 2007) ), the major purpose of this workshop was to provide training and experience on new knowledge gained from recent advances on tropical cyclone research and was attended by 17 participants. Training Course on Storm Surge Forecasting at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), New Delhi (New Delhi, India, 20 August to September 2007) ), this training course is for capacity building in the Panel region for storm surge forecasting and was attended by two participants The Panel noted that WMO fellowships for long term and short term training continued to be granted to the Member countries of the Panel under the various WMO programmes.

13 The Panel expressed appreciation to Panel s Member countries, which offered their national training facilities to other Members and the Panel strongly recommended that such endeavors should continue in the future and be strengthened. The Panel urged its Members to make maximum use of such training facilities The Panel noted the recent development of the ETRP Website and the current initiatives to facilitate online access to worldwide training resources, as well as exchange of meteorological case studies and related documentation between advanced and less advanced training institutions The Panel was pleased to note that the attachment of tropical cyclone forecasters at the RSMC New Delhi and the attachment of storm surge experts at IIT Delhi were successfully conducted. The Panel expressed appreciation to RSMC New Delhi and IIT Delhi for providing Members with such valuable opportunities of training. It requested the RSMC New Delhi and IIT Delhi to continue this training activity for the Members The representative of IIT Delhi informed the Panel that it will start M. Tech masters program from July This programme is sponsored by the Ministry of Earth Science (MoES), Government of India. IMD and the Ocean division of MoES propose to sponsor up to five meteorologists and oceanographers for the programme. IIT Delhi expressed its willingness to consider admitting meteorologists and oceanographers who are sponsored by the Members or WMO. Prerequisite for admission is that the candidates seeking admission should have either M. Sc. Or B. Tech degree. The M. Tech programme duration is two year (one year course work + one year project) and candidates may be allowed to do their project in their respective countries A summary report on the 2007 training activities and future plan of Members is given in Appendix V. 8.5 Research component (agenda item 8.5) The Panel was informed that the International Training Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Disaster Reduction was successfully held in Guangzhou, China, from 26 to 31 March Of the 60 participants, 45 were operational forecasters from members of the five tropical cyclone regional bodies while 15 were tropical cyclone researchers. The lecturers included leading experts in the field of tropical cyclone research and forecasting namely Dr Peter Black, Prof. Lianshou Chen, Prof. Russell Elsberry, and Mr. Chip Guard. The training workshop provided the trainees with new knowledge gained from recent advances on tropical cyclone research and how best to apply these to operational prediction activities in order to enhance the accuracy and usefulness of tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings. It also enabled participants to be aware of the issues associated with disaster mitigation, such as factors contributing to human and economic losses, conveying forecasting and warning information to stakeholders, users and the general public, evaluating the effectiveness of warning systems, mitigation strategies and community capacity building for disaster reduction The Panel was informed that the Tropical Cyclone Panel of the World Weather Research Programme s Working Group on Tropical Meteorology Research organized an Expert Meeting to Evaluate Skill of Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Forecasts. The meeting was held in Boulder, Colorado, USA from 24 to 25 April 2008 and reviewed the status of a number of statistical and dynamical techniques for seasonal forecasts. As recommended by the Sixth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (San Jose, November 2006) the meeting formally established a website for seasonal tropical cyclone forecasts, which is now proposed to be on the WMO/WWRP/TMR website. In developing this website the expert group: (i) Defined the metrics for the forecast and (ii) Set guidelines for verification measures

14 13 (seven measures for deterministic forecasts and three for probabilistic forecasts) and chose appropriate reference score The Panel was infirmed that steps are underway to organize the Regional Research Workshop on Tropical Cyclones in La Réunion, France, from 26 to 30 May The workshop will focus on the following main topics: (a) current status of research activities on tropical cyclones and tropical convection in the south west Indian Ocean (b) future research activities in the region and (c) research needs in the south west Indian Ocean. The objectives of the workshop are: (a) to determine the areas of research which are of particular interest to the Members of the RA I (Africa) Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South West Indian Ocean and (b) to develop future collaborations between researchers in the region A summary report on the 2007 research activities and the future research activities of the Panel Members is given in Appendix V. 8.6 New Joint Initiatives (Agenda item 8.6) Two new joint initiatives were discussed during the 35 th Session. One is related to the work plan for the WG DPP on the Multi hazard Early Warning System Concept submitted by UNESCAP as shown in Appendix VI. The other joint initiative is a continuation of the discussion based on the recommendation of the Deputy Minister of Environment, Energy and Water, Government of Maldives at the 34 th Session and reiterated by him during the 35 th Session in his position as Chair of the 35 th Session on possible reform efforts of the Panel to revitalize the effectiveness and visibility of the Panel With respect to the first joint initiative, the Panel endorsed the proposal to develop an Integrated Hazard Awareness Display (IHAD) as a mechanism to promote the development of multi hazard early warning systems in the Panel Area as elaborated in Appendix VI. The Panel also endorsed the proposal for TSU to develop a detailed project for submission to the ESCAP Multi donor Voluntary Trust Fund on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangements in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia for possible funding. In this connection, the Panel requested TSU to establish a Task Force on IHAD for the development of such project proposal for submission to UNESCAP before 15 August With respect to the second joint initiative, the Panel decided to establish a Highlevel Policy Working Group (PWG) to discuss priority activities aiming at enhancing the effectiveness and visibility of the Panel. It also endorsed the Terms of Reference of PWG as shown in Appendix VII and requested WMO in cooperation with UNESCAP and TSU to convene such meeting of PWG before the 36 th Session and authorize WMO to use the Trust Fund to organize such a meeting. Due to the limitation of financial resources, the Panel decided to authorize the use of PTC Trust Fund for a maximum of 4 participants, representing four Members of the Panel, to participate in such a meeting and welcome participation of other Panel Members at their own costs. The Panel appointed Dr Qamar uz Chaudry to be the Chair of PWG and requested him to prepare all background documents in cooperation with WMO and UNESCAP before the meeting of PWG. 8.7 Publications (agenda item 8.7) Publications issued under the programmes of the Panel fall into two categories (a) Panel News, and (b) the Annual Review of the Tropical Cyclones affecting the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Information on the current status of each is presented below: Panel News Panel News No.24 was published in October 2007 by TSU and had already been distributed to the Members and others concerned. The 25th issue of the Panel News which was published in Aptil 2008, was distributed to the Members during the 35th Session of PTC. The Panel commended TSU for the new and attractive format of Panel News No. 25 and

15 14 recommended that Panel News continue to target policy makers. It therefore requested the Members to also provide policy related information to TSU for inclusion in the future issues including the next issue which is scheduled to be published in October Annual Review The Panel on Tropical Cyclones Annual Review for the year 2006 which was consolidated and finalized by the Chief Editor, Dr. H.R. Hatwar (India) with contributions from the National Editors was submitted to WMO in January 2008 for publication as soon as possible. 9. REVIEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OPERATIONAL PLAN (Agenda item 9) 9.1 The Panel expressed its appreciation to Dr. Samarendra Karmakar, former Director of Bangladesh Meteorological Department, who kindly served as rapporteur to finalize the 2007 Edition of the Operational Plan. 9.2 The Panel reaffirmed that the basic purpose of the operational plan is to facilitate the most effective tropical cyclone warning system for the region with existing facilities. In doing so the plan defines the sharing of responsibilities among Panel countries for the various segments of the system and records the coordination and cooperation achieved. The plan contains the agreed arrangements for standardization of operational procedures, efficient exchange of various data related to tropical cyclone warnings, archival of data and issuance of tropical weather outlook for the benefit of the region, from a central location having the required facilities for this purpose (i.e. RSMC New Delhi), as agreed upon by the Panel. 9.3 The operational plan contains an explicit formulation of the procedures adopted in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea region for the preparation, distribution and exchange of information and warnings pertaining to tropical cyclones. Experience has shown that it is a great advantage to have an explicit statement of the regional procedures to be followed in the event of a cyclone and this document is designed to serve as a valuable source of information to be readily available for reference by the forecaster and other users. 9.4 Tha Panel designated Mr. B. K. Bandayopadhyay, Director of RSMC New Delhi as rapporteur to update the Operational Plan to prepare the 2008 edition. Noting that the 2008 cyclone season had virtually started, the Panel urged Members to communicate their amendments to the rapporteur for the update as soon as possible and not later than 15 June The Panel also requested the rapporteur to make a comprehensive review of the structure and format of the current Opeartinal Plan and offer suggestions for improvements at the next session. 9.5 Recognizing that the Members require established communication with RSMC New Delhi for close coordiantion, the Panel decided that the list of address/telephone of the Members in the Operatinal Plan should be updated to include the names and direct contacts of focal poinsts of the forecast center of each Member country to ensure communication with RSMC New Delhi (see para. 6.3). Accordingly, the Panel requested the Members to designate two or more focal poinsts and send their names, phone/fax number and e mail address to the rapporteur through TSU by the above deadline, along with the amendments to the Operational Plan. 9.6 The Panel invited WMO to issue the 2008 Edition of the Operational Plan as early as possible.

16 Technical Support Unit (Agenda item 10) 10.1 The Panel expressed its gratitude to the Government of Pakistan for hosting the Technical Support Unit (TSU) and appreciated the services being rendered by Dr Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Director General of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) in his capacity as Coordinator TSU and Mr. Ata Hussain, Deputy Director (Coordination and International Met. Section) PMD as the Meteorologist TSU The Panel was briefed by Mr. Hussain on the activities of TSU during the intersessional period. The Panel expressed its satisfaction with the work of the TSU. The summary of the activities of TSU is given in Appendix VIII The Panel would like TSU to take a major role in the management of joint projects of the Panel. In this connection, the Panel urged WMO, UNESCAP and TSU to review the current status of the legal and institutional framework of TSU with a view to recommending possible strengthening measures and report the findings to all the Members through TSU as soon as possible TSU provided the Panel with a detailed breakdown of its expenses incurred during the Inter sessional period (see Appendix IX). Keeping in veiw some savings, TSU requested the Panel for provision of US$ 2,000 for its expenses during the year SUPPORT FOR THE PANEL S PROGRAMME (Agenda item 11) 11.1 The Panel was informed of the technical cooperation activities of WMO and ESCAP in support of the programmes of the Panel carried out in 2007, including the Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP), Trust Fund arrangements, Emergency Assistance Fund scheme and Technical Cooperation among Developing Countries (TCDC) activities, and expressed its appreciation to WMO, ESCAP and collaborating partners for providing assistance to Members of the Panel The Panel noted that, in 2007, Maldives and Pakistan made cash contributions to the Voluntary Cooperation Fund (VCP(F)). Four VCP project requests were submitted by four Members of the Panel. The Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis Process System (MICAPS) was provided to Bangladesh, Maldives and Myanmar by China. Maldives also received support from TOTEX Corporation, Japan for meteorological balloons. The installation of an Automatic Weather Station (AWS) is planned for May June 2008 in Myanmar with the support of MEISEI Electric Co. Ltd, Japan. Sri Lanka has received support from Japan; MEISEI Electric Co. Ltd, Japan; TOTEX Corporation, Japan; and the VCP(F) for the replacement of an upper air system and provision of radiosondes and balloons in China supported Myanmar and Sri Lanka for the provision of FengYunCast systems in The panel was informed of the progress of the Trust Fund project for Oman and UNDP project for Maldives. It also noted with satisfaction that the GTS upgrade projects, developed after the disastrous tsunami in the Indian Ocean on 26 December 2004, had successfully been completed in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Pakistan through the WMO/ISDR Trust Fund/VCP projects and in Maldives and Sri Lanka through bilateral arrangements with the support of the USA. The Panel welcomed the initiation of the Trust Fund project for the installation of a Doppler weather radar in Sri Lanka Within the framework of the TCDC, China organized the WMO Symposium on Strengthening Cooperation among NMHSs and WMO followed by the 2007 Study Tour in China from 3 to 13 September 2007 for 21 participants, mainly International Advisors, from 21 Members of WMO. Bangladesh and Myanmar participated in the Symposium and Study Tour in 2007.

17 The Panel was informed that Pakistan provided ten fellowships to meteorological personnel, two each from Bangadesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka for four months Meteorological Technicians Training Course in Pakistan during February June Pakistan also indicated its willingness to continue this fellowship programme in coming years The Panel also noted the recent emergency assistance provided under the Emergency Assistance Fund scheme to WMO Members affected by natural disasters, including Bangladesh and Pakistan, and those emerging from conflict. Affected Members who need emergency assistance were advised to utilize this scheme, and all Members were requested to consider possible support to the affected NMHSs. The Panel was pleased to note the proposed WMO initiatives for the emergency assistance for Myanmar, including a WMO needs assessment mission in collaboration with ESCAP and TSU, financial support for Myanmar s participation in the relevant international meetings, provision of training opportunities with higher priority as well as the technical assistance for the restoration of damaged basic meteorological and hydrological networks The Panel further noted that WMO and the Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC) agreed to cooperate on capacity building for preparedness, mitigation and early warning of natural hazards, in the area of the enhancement of capacity of NMHSs to deliver their products to end uses for early warning arrangements for disaster risk reduction. The Panel considered that the proposed joint project for Reducing risks in low elevation coastal zones to tsunami and other natural hazards for Maldives, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand, being submitted to the UNESCAP Multi donor Voluntary Trust Fund on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangements in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia for funding, would benefit substantially the above countries, in particular Myanmar, in their efforts to enhance capacity of NMHSs for early warning arrangements for disaster risk reduction The Panel was informed of the planned update/revision of the RA II Regional Strategic Plan and the concept of the reform of XIV RA II session, which will be held in Tashkent, Uzbekistan in early December It noted that the reform would be considered for, among others, the duration, agenda, work plan, documentation and scientific lectures The Panel noted with appreciation that WMO and UNESCAP would continue to undertake activities in support of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones. Panel on Tropical Cyclones Trust Fund (PTCTF) The establishment of the Panel on Tropical Cyclones Trust Fund (PTCTF) indicated a step towards achieving self reliance of the Panel. At the moment, the Fund is being used not only for the provision of institutional support but also as funding support to the representatives of Panel Members attending training events and conferences Members were urged to continue to enhance their contributions to the Trust Fund as a substantial support for the Panel s activities The Panel endorsed the use of the Trust Fund for 2008 for the following specific purpose: Supplemental support for the attendance of members of the Policy Working Group at its first meeting to be held in late 2008 or early 2009 before the 36 th session. (US$ 4,000) Support to the attachement training at RSMC New Delhi for per diem of the participants (US$ 6,000) Support to TSU for its operating expenses including those for printing Panel News and running TSU website. (US$ 2,000)

18 17 Any other emergency expenditure that can be justified for the use of the PTCTF requires the concurrence of both the TSU Coordinator and the Panel on Tropical Cyclones Chairman A detailed financial report on the Trust Fund as of 31 December 2007 was submitted (see Appendix X). 12. SCIENTIFIC LECTURES 12.1 The Panel devoted a session for the presentation of lectures and technical discussions under the theme Panel Members Working Together to Cope with Climate Change. The list of presentations is as follows: Climate Change Projections in Bengladesh Ms. Arjumand Habib, Director, BMD, Bangladesh. Climate Change Activities in Sri Lanka Mr. G.B Samarasinghe, Director (Operational Met.), DoM, Sri Lanka. National Adaptation to Climate Change Mr. Ali Shareef, Assistant Director General, DoM, Maldives. UNESCAP Experiences in Policy Tools and Practices on Adaptation Planning Dr. Ti Le Huu, Cheif Sustainable Development and Water Resources Section, UNESCAP, Thailand. Long Term Trend in the Frequency of Cycloninc Disturbances over the North Inidan Ocean Dr B. K. Bandyopadhyaya, India Climate Change Science Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Director General, PMD, Islamabad, Pakistan Wind Damage & Storm Surge Mapping for Andhera Pradesh Coast of India Dr. S. K. Dube, Professor, IIT, New Delhi, India A Neural Network Model for Surface Air Temperature estimation over Eastern Part of Thailand in 2004 Dr. Wattana Kanbua, Director, Marine Meteorological Centre, TMD, Thailand Implementation of Neural Netrwork for Spatial Temporal Interpolation of Sea Surface Temperatures Dr. Wattana Kanbua, Director, Marine Meteorological Centre, TMD, Thailand Projection of the change in future weather extremes Dr. Akio KITOH, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency (read by Mr. Kuroiwa) 12.2 The Panel expressed its deep appreciation to the above lecturers for their informative and excellent presentations The Panel noted the rich exchange of ideas among the participants aiming at assisting the Panel Members in coping with possible impacts of climate change. The Panel noted the importance of assessing possible impacts and corresponding measures for adaptation. The Panel called on all NMHSs Members to enhance interaction among themselves and also with other prominent experts on this subject so as to provide inputs for the identification of possible scenarios for better assessment of adaptation costs. The Panel also noted the importance of good assessment of adaptation costs in the ongoing global process of negotiation for better coping with climate change beyond 2012.

19 OTEHR MATTERS 13.1 The Panel noted with sorrow the severe impacts of the Cyclone NARGIS on Myanmar. It conveyed its deep condolences and sympathy to the Government of Myanmar, as the country had been seriously affected by the Cyclone NARGIS in terms of the loss of lives, damage to properties and significant disruption of socio economic activities The Panel expressed its full support to the proposed initiatives to be taken by WMO in cooperation with UNESCAP and TSU for a mission on assessment of needs of priority activities aiming at preventing occurrence of similar disasters and also for restoration of damaged basic meteorological and hydrological networks The Panel also encouraged the Members and WMO and UNESCAP to extend their assistance to Myanmar on priority training activities, especially those required to address gaps identified by the assessment mission mentioned earlier. In this connection, the Panel expressed its appreciation to Pakistan for the offer to include two Myanmar meteorological officials in its training programme in The Panel expressed its concern about the overall meteorological facilities in Bangladesh, especially in veiw of the fact that Bangladesh is the most vulnerable among the Panel Member countries. Panel Members encouraged BMD to take up its modernization with its Government on priority. 14. DATE AND PLACE OF THE THIRTY SIXTH SESSION (Agenda item 14) 14.1 The Panel noted that WMO would cosponsor the First Indian Ocean International Conference on Climate Change and Tropical Cyclone in Oman in March 2009 and that WMO informed the Panel that Oman is willing to host the thirty sixth Session back to back with the Conference The Panel noted that Thailand and Pakistan have also expressed their willingness to host the next session in 2009, subject to their Government s approval The Panel agreed that if invited, the parties concerned would confirm their intention within a month Exact dates and venue of the next session would be determined based on the consultation between WMO, UNESCAP, Chairman of the Panel, TSU Coordinator and the Members concerned. 15. ADOPTION OF THE REPORT (Agenda item 15) The report of the thirty fifth session was adopted at 1130 hours on 9 May CLOSURE OF THE SESSION 16.1 The Panel expressed its sincere appreciation to the Regional Office for West Asia of WMO for hosting this session and the Government of Kingdom of Bahrain and the office of UNDP in Bahrain for providing logistical supports. It also thanked the Bahrain Meteorological Service for its warm hospitality. The Panel also expressed its deep appreciation to Mr Abdullahi Majeed, Chairman of the Panel, Mr. Thosakdi Vanichkajorn, Vice chairman of the Panel as well as Mr G.B. Samarasinghe, Chairman of the Drafting Committee, for their successful conduct of the session The thirty fifth session of the Panel was concluded on 9 May 2008 at 1240 hours.

20 LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix I Appendix II Appendix III Appendix IV Appendix V Appendix VI Appendix VII List of Participants Agenda PTC 34 Action Sheet 2007 Cyclone Season Summary Country Report of Members (1) Bangladesh (2) India (3) Maldives (4) Pakistan (5) Sri Lanka (6) Thailand Multi hazard Early Warning System Concept Proposal on Integrated Hazard Awareness Display Interim Terms of Reference of PWG Appendix VIII Activities of TSU during the Inter Sessional Period Appendix IX Appendix X Statement of TSU Accounts Statement of Account of the Panel s Trust Fund

21 APPENDIX I List of Participants Name Designation Contact Information Bangladesh 1. Ms. Arjumand Habib Director BMD Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) & P R of Bangladesh for WMO Meteorological Complex, Agargaon, Dhaka 1207, Bangladesh. Tel: Fax: / directorbmd2005@yahoo.com, wczhasan@accesstel.net India 2. Mr. Bandayopadhyay B. K. Director, India Meteorological Department (IMD), Mausam Bhavan, Northern Hemisphere Analysis Centre, Lodi Road, New Delhi , India IMD, New Delhi Tel: Fax: bkbando1705@yahoo.co.in Maldives 3. Mr. Majeed Abdullahi Deputy Minister of Environment, Ministry of Environment, Energy Energy and Water, Maldives and Water & P R of Maldives with WMO 3 rd Floor Fen Building, Male, Maldives Tel: / Fax: / majeed@meteorology.gov.mv Abdullahi.majeed@environment.gov.mv 4. Mr. Ali Shareef Assistant Director General Department of Meteorology, DoM, Maldives Hulule 22000, Maldives. Tel: Fax: shareef@meteorology.gov.mv Pakistan 5. Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Director General PMD Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Chaudhry & P R of Pakistan with WMO Sector H 8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: Fax: pakmet_islamabad@yahoo.com dgmetpak@hotmail.com, qamarc@hotmail.com 6. Mr. Ata Hussain Deputy Director Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Coordination & Sector H 8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan

22 APPENDIX I, p.2 International Met. Section, PMD Tel: Fax: Sri Lanka 7. Mr. G.B Samarasinghe Director,Operational Meteorology, Department of Meteorology (DoM), DoM, Sri Lanka. 383, Bauddhaloka Mawatha, Colombo 7, Sri Lanka Tel: Fax: / sbaladev_24@yahoo.com / meteo1@sltnet.lk Thailand 8. Mr. Thosakdi Vanichkajorn Deputy Director General, TMD Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) 4353 Sukhumvit Road, Bangna Bankok 10260, Thailand Tel: Fax: / ramasoon1@hotmail.com 9. Dr. Wattana Kanbua Director Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) Marine Meteorological Centre, TMD 4353 Sukhumvit Road, Banena, Bankok 10260, Thailand Tel: Fax: watt_kan@hotmail.com watt_kan@yahoo.com 10. Mr. Pongsthakorn Suvanpimil Expert on Hydrology, RID Royal Irrigation Department (RID) 811 Samsen Road, Dusit, Bankok 10300, Thailand Tel: Fax: pongsthakorn@yahoo.com 11. Mr. Anucha Makkhavesa Director General, DDPM Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) 3/12 U.Tong Nok Road, Dusit, Bankok 10300, Thailand Tel: Fax: foreign_dpm@yahoo.com foreign_dpm@hotmail.com Website: Mr. Adthaporn Singhawichai Director, Research & International Department of Disaster Prevention and Cooperation Bureau, DDPM Mitigation (DDPM) 3/12 U.Tong Nok Road, Dusit,

23 APPENDIX I, p.3 Bankok 10300, Thailand Tel: Fax: A_ Singhawichai@hotmail.com 13. Mr. Suporn Ratananakin International Cooperation Department of Disaster Prevention and Expert, DDPM Mitigation (DDPM) 3/12 U.Tong Nok Road, Dusit, Bankok 10300, Thailand Tel: Fax: rsuporn@yahoo.com OBSERVERS CMA, China 14. Dr. Ye Xiaodong Project Officer Division of Weather, Deptt. of Forecasting Services & Disaster Mitigation China Meteorological Administration (CMA), No. 46, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing 10081, China. Tel: Fax: yedc1234@126.com, yexd@cma.gov.cn IIT New Delhi, India 15. Dr. Shishir Kumar Dube Professor Centre for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS), Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Hauz Khas, New Delhi , India Tel: Fax: skdube@cas.iitd.ac.in Technical Support Unit (TSU) of the Panel 16. Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Coordinator TSU TSU c/o Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Chaudhry Sector H 8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: Fax: tsupmd@yahoo.com, tsupmd@hotmail.com dgmetpak@hotmail.com, qamarc@hotmail.com 17. Mr. Ata Hussain Meteorologist TSU TSU c/o Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Sector H 8/2, Islamabad, Pakistan Tel: Fax: tsupmd@yahoo.com, tsupmd@hotmail.com

24 APPENDIX I, p.4 WMO 18. Dr. Tokiyoshi Toya Regional Director for Asia and World Meteorological Organization the South West Pacific Tel: Fax: Mr. Koji Kuroiwa Chief, Tropical Cyclone Programme World Meteorological Organization Division Tel: Fax: UN ESCAP 20. Dr. Ti Le Huu Cheif, Sustainable Development UN ESCAP and Water Resources Section, UN Bledg., Rajadamnern Nok Avenue UN ESCAP BKK 10200, Thailand. Tel: +(66 2) Fax: +(66 2) / Local Organizing Committee (Bahrain) 21. Dr. Jaser Rabadi WMO Representative for West Asia UN House P.O Box 26814, Manama, Bahrain Tel: Fax: rabadi@wmo.int 22. Mr Adel Daham Supervisor Met. Operations Meteorological Directorate Civil Aviation Affairs, P.O. Box 586, Kingdom of Bahrain Tel: Fax: dahoom59@hotmail.com 23. Mr. Dheya Ali Alalawi Supervisor Met. Operations Meteorological Directorate Civil Aviation Affairs, P.O. Box 586, Kingdom of Bahrain Tel: Fax: dalawi@caa.gov.bh 24. Mr.Nader Ahmed Abdulla Senior Climatologist Meteorological Directorate Civil Aviation Affairs, P.O. Box 586, Kingdom of Bahrain Tel: Fax: nader@caa.gov.bh 25. Ms.Haneen Mahmood Meteorologist Meteorological Directorate

25 APPENDIX I, p.5 Civil Aviation Affairs, P.O. Box 586, Kingdom of Bahrain Tel: Fax: hthawadi@caa.gov.bh

26 APPENDIX II AGENDA 1. OPENING OF THE SESSION 2. ELECTION OF THE CHAIRMAN AND VICE CHAIRMAN 3. ADOPTION OF THE AGENDA 4. WORKING ARRANGEMENTS 5. FOLLOW UP ACTION ON PTC REVIEW OF THE 2007 CYCLONE SEASON 7. COORDINATION WITH OTHER ACTIVITIES OF THE WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME 8. REVIEW OF THE COORDINATED TECHNICAL PLAN AND CONSIDERATION OF THE WORK PROGRAMME FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS 8.1 Meteorological component 8.2 Hydrological component 8.3 Disaster prevention and preparedness component 8.4 Training component 8.5 Research component 8.6 New joint initiatives 8.7 Publications 9. REVIEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OPERATIONAL PLAN 10. TECHNICAL SUPPORT UNIT 11. SUPPORT FOR THE PANEL'S PROGRAMME 12. SCIENTIFIC LECTURES 13. OTHER MATTERS 14. DATE AND PLACE OF THE THIRTY SIXTH SESSION 15. ADOPTION OF THE REPORT 16. CLOSURE OF THE SESSION

27 APPENDIX III ACTION SHEET THIRTY FOURTH SESSION OF THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES (Male, Maldives, 25 February to 1 March 2007) Para. No. Subject Action Required Responsible Deadline Remarks 6.4 Advisories and verbal guidance from RSMC. Consider more frequent issuance of advisories and telephone contact with Members during tropical cyclone events. RSMC New Delhi ASAP 7.7 Study on suitable conversion factors between the WMO 10 minute standard average wind and 1 minute, 2 minute and 3 minute sustained winds. Include a one page executive summary of the study in the Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and in the Operational Plans/Manual of the TC regional bodies in a suitable format. WMO (TCP) RA I XXIV 8. Working Group on the Coordinated Technical Plan and Work Programme Hold a face to face meeting in late 2007 to prepare the new Coordinated Technical Plan and distribute it to the Members with findings and recommendations at least one month prior to the next session. WMO (TCP) Dec 2007

28 APPENDIX III Para. No. Subject Action Required Responsible Deadline Remarks Regional workshop to enhance further the flood forecasting services for socio economic development. Seek authorization from the Government to organize the regional workshop and inform UNESCAP and WMO through the TSU of the decisions by the Governments within six weeks after the Session. Bangladesh India Six weeks after the 34 th session Increasing socio economic impacts of stormed rainfalls in all Member countries of the Panel. Assist in regional cooperative efforts to address the issue of increasing trend of water related disasters WMO (HWR) UNESCAP ASAP Advisory services from UNESCAP to the Panel Members on water resources planning and management. Make use of the services. Members ASAP Manual on Flood Forecasting and Warnings, Manual on Low Flows and Prediction, and Manual on PMP. Prepare these manuals and make available to Memers. WMO (HWR) ASAP DPP expert. Send DPP experts to take part in the PTCsession. Members ASAP Working Group on DPP Nominate Chair and Vice chair respectively and inform the TSU, UNESCAP and WMO of their nominees. Thailand Oman Six weeks after the 34 th session

29 APPENDIX III Para. No. Subject Action Required Responsible Deadline Remarks Work plan to enhance cooperation among the Members on DPP. Prepare the detailed work plan for circulation to all Members. DPP Chair & Vice chair UNESCAP ASAP Attachement training at IIT Kharagpur (Delhi). Include the training on tsunami propagation model in the curriculum in addition to storm surge model. IIT August Fourth EUMETSAT satellite application course at the Muscat Center of Excellence during February WMO Secretariat to provide financial assistance as necessary. WMO February Research work in the mutually agreed fields of meteorology and related sciences in Pakistan. Invite one or two scientists from each Member country to Pakistan for initiating/carrying out joint research work. Pakistan ASAP Establishment of a regional multi hazard early warning system. Present ideas on possible framework for the establishment of a regional multi hazard early warning system for discussion. UNESCAP ASAP Concept paper on a regional multi hazard early warning system. Prepare the concept paper and submit it to all the Members by May 2007 for consideration by the respective Governments. UNESCAP May 2007

30 APPENDIX III Para. No. Subject Action Required Responsible Deadline Remarks Reports of achievements in disaster risk management as well as multi hazard early warnings. Provide reports of achievements during the preceding year at the 35th session. ICAO, IFRC, ADRC, UNDP and ISDR 35th session Storm Surge Project Implement the Storm Surge project on the basis of current level of support by the respective Governments. Members ASAP Task Force for the new joint initiative. Appoint the Task Force after obtaining approval by all the Governments. Panel ASAP Operational Plan Communicate amendments to Dr. Samarendra Karmakar. Members End of March Operational Plan Issue issue the 2007 Edition. WMO ASAP 10.4 Legal and institutional framework of TSU Review the current status of the legal and institutional framework of TSU and report to all the Members. TSU WMO ESCAP ASAP 11.6 Training activities among the Members within the framework of TCDC Provide the WMO Secretariat with the information on the activities. Members who offered training opportunities ASAP

31 APPENDIX III Para. No. Subject Action Required Responsible Deadline Remarks 11.7 Inventory of experts in the fields of maintenance of meteorological equipment, ICT, and other relevant fields. Develop the inventory TSU ASAP

32 APPENDIX IV 2007 CYCLONE SEASON SUMMARY CYCLONIC ACTIVITIES OVER NORTH INDIAN OCEAN DURING 2007 The year 2007 was a year of near normal cyclonic activity over north Indian Ocean. The basin witnessed the formation of twelve cyclonic disturbances (Table 2.1) against a normal of fifteen. Out of twelve disturbances, five intensified upto the intensity of deep depressions and two into cyclonic storms and one each into very severe cyclonic storm and super cyclonic storm. Tracks of the cyclonic disturbances formed over north Indian Ocean during 2007 are shown in Fig Two cyclonic storms, including a super cyclonic storm GONU, and one deep depression formed over the Arabian Sea. However, this deep depression dissipated over the sea itself. The Bay of Bengal witnessed the formation of one very severe cyclonic storm, one cyclonic storm, four deep depressions and three depressions during the year. The brief synopses of the cyclonic storms are given below: (a) Cyclonic storm "AKASH" over the Bay of Bengal during May, 2007 During the onset phase of southwest monsoon, a low pressure area formed over south Andaman Sea on 11 May, It concentrated into a depression over eastcentral Bay of Bengal on 13 May and into a cyclonic storm "AKASH" on 14 May. The cyclonic storm continued to move in a north northeasterly direction under the influence of upper tropospheric trough in westerlies and crossed south Bangladesh coast, close to south of Cox's Bazar between 2200 and 2300 UTC of 14 May. After crossing the coast, system weakened gradually and continued to move in the same direction. The system caused heavy rainfall over Myanmar, Bangladesh and northeastern states of India. (b) Super Cyclonic storm GONU over the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 A low pressure area developed over eastcentral Arabian Sea on 31 May It concentrated into a depression over the same area and then into a cyclonic storm GONU at 1200 UTC of 1 June. Thereafter, it moved in a north northwesterly direction and intensified into a severe cyclonic storm at 0300 UTC of 3 June. It intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm at 1800 UTC of 3 June. The satellite imagery showed open eye at 0600 UTC of 4 June It intensified into a super cyclonic storm (T6.5) at 1500 UTC of 4 June. Thereafter, it moved in a west northwesterly direction and started weakening gradually due to relatively colder sea surface temperature and increasing vertical wind shear. It crossed Oman coast as a very severe cyclonic storm around 0300 UTC of 6 June. After crossing Oman coast, it emerged into the Gulf of Oman, weakened gradually and moved in a north northwesterly direction. It made second landfall over Iran coast near long E between 0300 and 0400 UTC of 7 June 2007 as a Cyclonic Storm. The system caused loss of life and property in Oman and Iran due to heavy rainfall, strong winds and storm surge. (c) Cyclonic Storm YEMYIN over the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 The remnant of a deep depression which developed over westcentral Bay of Bengal on 21 June, 2007 and moved west northwestwards across south India during June and emerged into Arabian Sea as a low pressure area, concentrated into a depression over northeast Arabian Sea at 0300 UTC of 25 June. The depression further intensified into a deep depression at 1200 UTC of the same day and into a Cyclonic Storm YEMYIN, at 2100 UTC of the same day. It moved in a northwesterly direction and crossed Pakistan coast near

33 APPENDIX IV longitude E between 0200 and 0300 UTC of 26 June. The cyclonic storm YEMYIN caused extensive damage over south Pakistan due to heavy rain and strong winds. (d) Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR over the Bay of Bengal during November, 2007 An upper air cyclonic circulation lay over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining area of south Andaman Sea during 8 10 November, Initially moderate upper level wind shear inhibited organisation of the system, while strong diffluence aloft aided in developing convection. During this period, easterly wave was also active and vertical wind shear decreased significantly as the circulation became better defined. Under the influence of these factors, a low pressure area formed at 0300 UTC of 11 November over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. It concentrated into a depression and subsequently into a deep depression on the same day. Moving in a northwesterly direction, it intensified into cyclonic storm SIDR and lay centred at 0300 UTC of 12 November, about 220 km southwest of Port Blair. It further concentrated into severe cyclonic storm at 1200 UTC and very severe cyclonic storm at 1800 UTC, while moving in a north northwesterly direction. It continued to move in north northwesterly direction till 0000 UTC of 13 th. It then moved in a northerly direction and lay centred at 0300 UTC of 15 November near lat N & long E, about 530 km south of Kolkata. The system then moved rapidly and lay centred at 1200 UTC of 15 November near lat N and long E, about 200 km south southeast of Kolkata. It then started to move north northeastwards and crossed west Bangladesh coast around 1700 UTC near longitude E and lay centred at 1800 UTC near lat N and long E, about 100 km south of Dhaka, Bangladesh. It weakened rapidly into a cyclonic storm, while moving northeastwards. It further weakened into a depression and lay centred at 0300 UTC of 16 November, about 50 km north of Agartala. It lay as well marked low pressure area over northeastern states at 1200 UTC of 16 November and became unimportant at 1500 UTC of the same day. RSMC, New Delhi mobilized all its resources, both technical and human, to track these tropical disturbances that formed over the north Indian Ocean and issued timely advisories to WMO / ESCAP Panel countries and to the national agencies. Some of the characteristic features of these cyclonic disturbances are given in (Table 2.2). The statistical data pertaining to the monthly frequencies, total life time (days), frequency distribution (intensity wise and basin wise) are given in (Table 2.3). The detailed characteristics of these disturbances are presented and discussed in Sec. 2.1 to Comprehensive information on tropical cyclone activity over the north Indian Ocean for last eleven years is given in (Table 2.4). Salient features: Four cyclonic storms including one super cyclonic storm (GONU), one very severe cyclonic storm (SIDR) and two cyclonic storms (AKASH and YEMYIN) formed over north Indian ocean during However, none of the cyclonic storms had landfall over the Indian coast. The first ever super cyclonic storm developed over the Arabian Sea as per recorded history of IMD. The super cyclonic storm, GONU made landfall over Iran with cyclonic storm intensity and caused loss of 23 lives and the properties worth $2.5 million. This was the second landfalling cyclonic storm over Iran after 4 th June 1898.

34 APPENDIX IV Table 2.1 Cyclonic disturbances formed over north Indian Ocean during Depression over Andaman Sea and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal during 3 5 May, Cyclonic storm "AKASH" over the Bay of Bengal during May, Super cyclonic storm GONU over the Arabian Sea during June, Deep depression over the Bay of Bengal during June, Cyclonic storm YEMYIN over the Arabian Sea during June, Deep depression over the Bay of Bengal during June, Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal during July, Deep depression over the Bay of Bengal during 5 7 August, Depression over the Bay of Bengal during September, Depression over the Bay of Bengal during October, Deep depression over the Arabian Sea during 27 October to 2 November, Very severe cyclonic storm SIDR over the Bay of Bengal during November, 2007

35 APPENDIX IV Table 2.2 Some Characteristic features of cyclonic disturbances formed over north Indian Ocean and adjoining region during 2007 Cyclonic Storm Date, Time Date, Time Estimated Estimated Max. / Depression & Lat.( 0 N)/ (UTC) place of lowest central Long. ( 0 E) landfall/ pressure, Date Maximum of genesis dissipation wind speed &Time (UTC) & lat. o N / long. o E (kt), Date & Time T. No. Attained Depression over the Bay of Bengal,3 5 May 03 May, 1200 UTC near 13.5/93.0 Crossed Arakan Coast near N/ E between 0100 & 0300 UTC of 05 May 998 hpa at 1200 UTC of 03 May near 13.5/ kt at 1200 UTC of 05 May T 1.5 Cyclonic Storm AKASH over the Bay of Bengal May Super Cyclonic Storm GONU over the Arabian sea June 13 May, 0300 UTC near 15.0/ June, 1800 UTC near 15.0 /68.0 Crossed Bangladesh Coast close to south of Cox s Bazar near 21.2/92.2 between 2200 & 2300 UTC of 14 May Crossed Makaran Coast as cyclonic storm near long E between 0300 and 0400 UTC of 07June 990 hpa at 0300 UTC of 14 May near 16.5/ hpa at 1500 UTC of 04 June near 20.0/ kt at 0600 UTC of 14 May 127 kt at 1500 UTC of T June T 6.5 Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal June 21June, 0300 UTC near 15.5/86.0 Crossed north Andhra Pradesh coast north of Machilipatnam between 0100 and 0300 UTC of 22 June 988 hpa at 1200 UTC of 21 June near 16.0/ kt at 1200 UTC of 21 June T 2.0

36 APPENDIX IV Cyclonic Storm YEMYIN over Bay of Bengal June 25 June, 0300 UTC near 23.5 /67.5 Crossed Pakistan coast near 25.5/64.0 between UTC of 26 June 986 hpa at 2100 UTC of 25 June Near 23.5/ kt at 2100 UTC of 25 June 2.5 Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal June 28 June, 0000 UTC near 18.5/ 87.0 Crossed Orissa coast near Puri between UTC of 29 June 986 hpa at 0600 UTC of 28 June Near 18.5/ kt at 0300 UTC of 28 June. T 2.0 Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal, July 04 July 0300 UTC near 22.0 / 89.5 * 988 hpa at 0600 UTC of 05 July Near 23.0/ kt at 1200 UTC of 05 July. ** Deep Depression over the Bay of Bengal August 05 August, 0000 UTC near 20.0/88.5 Crossed orissa coast between Chandbali and Paradip, between 0100 and 0200 UTC of 06 August. 984 hpa at 2100 UTC of 05 August Near 30 kt at 1800 UTC of 05 August T /87.5 Depression over the Bay of Bengal September 21 September 1200 UTC near 18.0/ 86.5 Crossed orissa coast near Puri between UTC of 22 September. 990 hpa at 0900 UTC of 23 September near 21.0/ kt at 1200 UTC of 21 September. T 1.5 Depression over the Bay of Bengal October 27 October, 1800 UTC near 11.5/85.5 Dissipated over the west central Bay of Bengal hpa at 0300 UTC of 28 October, Near 25 kt at 1800 UTC of 27 October. T /84.5

37 APPENDIX IV 1000 hpa at 30 kt at Deep Depression over the Arabian sea 27 Oct. 2 Nov. 27 October, 1800 UTC near 10.5/66.5 Dissipated over the west central Arabian Sea UTC of 31 October, Near 11.5/ UTC of 28 October. T 2.0 Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SIDR over the Bay of Bengal November 11 November 0900 UTC near 10.0/92.0 Crossed Bangladesh coast around 1700 UTC of 15 November near E 944 hpa at 0300 UTC of 15 November, near 18.0/ kt at 0300 UTC of 15 November. T 6.0 * : The system formed over Bangladesh coast ** : The system attained the maximum intensity (deep depression) over land area.

38 APPENDIX IV Table 2.3 Statistical data relating to cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean during 2007 A) Monthly frequencies and total lifetime of cyclonic disturbances (CI 1.5) Life S.No Type Ja n Fe b Mar Ap r May Ju n Jul Au g Se p Oc t No v De c Time in (Days) 1. D DD CS SCS VSCS SuCS 0.25 Peak intensity of the system

39 APPENDIX IV B) Frequency distribution of cyclonic disturbances of different intensities based on satellite assessment. CI No No. of disturbances C) Basin wise distribution of cyclonic disturbances Basin Number of cyclonic disturbances Bay of Bengal 9 Arabian Sea 3 Land depression

40 APPENDIX IV Table 2.4 Cyclonic disturbances formed over north Indian Ocean and land areas of India during Year Basin D DD CS SCS VSCS SuCS Total BOB ARB 1 1 BOB ARB BOB ARB 1 1 BOB ARB BOB ARB BOB ARB 1 1 BOB ARB 1 1 BOB ARB LAND 2 2 BOB ARB 2 2 LAND 1 1 BOB ARB LAND 1 1 BOB ARB D: Depression DD: Deep Depression, CS: Cyclonic Storm SCS: Severe Cyclonic Storm VSCS: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm SuCS: super Cyclonic Storm BOB: Bay of Bengal ARB: Arabian Sea

41 APPENDIX IV Fig.2.1 Tracks of cyclonic disturbances formed over north Indian Ocean During 2007.

42 APPENDIX V (1) BANGLADESH COUNTRY REPORT The WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones activities The Thirty fifth Session of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones May 2008 Manama, Bahrain By Bangladesh Meteorological Department Dhaka, Bangladesh.

43 APPENDIX V (1) 1. GENERAL INFORMATION 1.1 Geographical Environment Geography: Bangladesh is roughly located between o N and o N and o E and o E. It is bounded on the west, north and east by India and on the south by the Bay of Bengal. In the extreme east, there is a common border with Myanmar. Bangladesh is one of the largest deltaic countries in the world with an extremely flat plain having only small hilly areas in the northeast and southeast regions. The entire area of Bangladesh is about 1, 44,735 sq. km. The country is subject to meteorological, hydrological and seismic hazards. Bangladesh is frequented by floods almost every year due to the up stream flow (92%) of three major tributaries (i.e. Padma, Jamuna and Meghna) and local heavy rainfall (8%). The latest four severe floods occurred in 1987, 1988, 1998 and Population: Climate: The population is about 135 millions of which about 80% live in the rural areas. Bangladesh lies in the sub tropical monsoon climate regime. Based on the analysis of pressure, rainfall and temperature, the climate of this country can be described under the following four seasons: 1. Winter or Northeast Monsoon (December February): This season is characterized by very light northerly winds, mild temperature and dry weather with clear to occasionally cloudy skies over the country. The mean temperature is in the range of o C. 2. Summer or Pre Monsoon (March May): The mean temperature during the summer months remains within o C. April and May are the hottest months. The highest temperature ranging from o C is attained in the northern and northwestern districts. Over rest of the country it ranges from o C. This season is characterized by cyclogenesis in the Bay of Bengal. Some of the depressions may develop into cyclonic storms which travel generally northwestwards initially and then recurve to northeast moving towards Bangladesh and Myanmar coasts. Some of these storms may attain hurricane intensity and are associated with storm surges. The cyclone that hit the east coast of the country on 29 and 30 April 1991 reportedly resulted in nearly 1, 38,882 deaths. 3. Southwest Monsoon or Monsoon (June September): In this season, the surface wind changes to southerly direction over the southern and the central districts and to southeasterly over the northern districts of the country. Wind speed is light to moderate. Tropical depressions and storms form in the Bay of Bengal during the season and generally move northwestwards over India and sometimes crosses Bangladesh coast. Storms, however, seldom attain hurricane intensity in this season. 4. Autumn or Post Monsoon (October November): This is the transitional season from summer monsoon to the winter. Rainfall decreases considerably in October and

44 APPENDIX V (1) November and the dry period starts setting in over the country. The district of Sylhet gets mm of rain in October and the rest of the country gets about mm. In November the amount of rainfall over the southeastern coastal districts amounts to 25 65mm, whereas the rest of the country gets only 1 3 rainy days in the month of November. The mean temperature falls from 28 29oC in September to 25 26oC in October and to 23 25oC in November. The highest maximum temperature hardly exceeds 29.0oC and the lowest minimum does not fall below 10.0oC throughout the country. Tropical cyclones form over the Bay of Bengal in this season and moves initially towards west and then towards northwest and at times towards northeast affecting Bangladesh coast. Some of the storms in this season may attain hurricane intensity. 2. BANGLADESH METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT 2.1 Structure Headquarters Government Department: Ministry of Defence Service: Bangladesh Meteorological Department Address: Meteorological Complex, Agargaon, Dhaka Telephone : +(88 02) ; +(880 02) Telefax : +(88 02) Telex E mail Web site :METEOR, DHAKA. :directorbmd2005@yahoo.com : (being developed) Organization The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD), which is under the Ministry of Defence, has eleven divisions at its Headquarters in Dhaka namely, Administration Division, Planning Division, Agrometeorology Division, Meteorological Training Institute, Forecasting Division, Synoptic Division, Climate Division, International Meteorology Division, Workshop and Laboratory, Electronic and Instrument Division and Communication Division. The Department also maintains two regional offices: Storm Warning Centre (SWC), Dhaka and Meteorological and Geophysical Centre (M&GC), Chittagong Staff and budget Officers: 134 Staff: 923 Total: 1057

45 APPENDIX V (1) General fund contribution to WMO Contribution paid (CHF) Year Total payment , , , , , , , , , , Development Plans of BMD To equip BMD with the latest technicalities and attain advancement in forecasting as well as in other fields of Meteorology, a number of projects have been taken up: a. Establishment of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) system. It is under implementation with full Government of Bangladesh (GoB) funds. An open international tender was floated seeking consultancy service and UK Met Office won the bid. The consultants Team visited BMD several times and they are preparing Technical Documents after making proper assessments. It is likely to be completed in three phases. b. Establishment of three new Seismic Observatories at Dhaka, Rangpur and Sylhet and renovation of the existing seismic observatory at Chittagong. The Project has been implemented with full GoB funds. A WAN (TCP/IP network, 64 kbps) between the four seismic stations has been setup having a centralized monitoring and analyzing system at BMD Headquarters. c. Replacement of Cox s Bazar and Khepupara Meteorological Radars with S Band Doppler System. The project has been implemented under grant assistance of the Government of Japan. The Doppler Radar at Cox s Bazar has become operational in March 2007 and the Doppler Radar at Khepupara became operational since march d. Establishment of Doppler Meteorological and Hydrological Radar at Moulvi Bazar. This project is in the implementation stage and is likely to be completed in the first quarter of next year.

46 APPENDIX V (1) e. Establishment of 14 new observatories in the riverine area for reducing river capsizes during the nor westers season. It was supposed to be completed by June 2007, but the period had to be extended by one year as land acquisition is a cumbersome process and takes a long time. f. Upgradation of GTS link from 2.4 Kbps to 64 Kbps for Tsunami message reception and dissemination. WMO implemented the project as an aid and already completed this in A training programme of three Engineers of BMD was arranged in Japan under the project. g. Strengthening of Agro meteorological Services in Bangladesh including Establishment of 7 (Seven) Agro meteorological Pilot Stations. The project implementation work is going on under GoB Fund. h. Establishment of 5 (Five) First Class Meteorological Observatories in BMD. The project implementation work is going on in full swing under GoB Fund. i. Strengthening of Meteorological Training Institute and R&D Cell in BMD. The project is underway. j. Technical cooperation for Human Capacity Development under JICA Assistance. Long term Development Plans: Upgradation of BMD s Data Collection and Processing System with Automation and Networking. Modernization of Data Processing and Archiving System of Climate Division of BMD Head Office. Suitable climatological software for climate data processing (input, retrieval etc.) will be required. In this respect, BMD needs assistance from WMO/any Donor agency. Upgradation of the Training Institute and Research & Development Cell. Higher Training Courses on Meteorology, Electronics, Communication and Mechanical Engineering need to be introduced. One consultant should be appointed in this respect to evaluate the needs for the upgradation of Meteorological Training Institute and the R & D Cell established in the Institute. Human capacity building on operational weather analysis and forecasting and relevant technical issues. Assistance is required for upgradation of the Meteorological Training Institute and the R&D Cell of BMD as well as for the capacity building with higher training/degree in Meteorology. 3. FOLLOW UP ACTION ON PTC 33 (Agenda item 5) Bangladesh Meteorological Department tried its best to follow the recommendations made in the Thirty fourth session of PTC.

47 APPENDIX V (1) 4. REVIEW OF THE 2007 CYCLONE SEASON (Agenda item 6) 4.1 Extreme Weather Events in Bangladesh and Tropical Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal during January December Extreme Weather Events in Bangladesh Cyclones and depressions in the Bay of Bengal in Cyclonic Storm Akash (13 15 May, 2007 ) The low over East Central Bay and adjoining area intensified into a well marked low over the same area in the morning of 13 May, Again it concentrated into a Depression at 13, 0900 UTC over the same area (Lat.15.5 N, Long.90.5 E). The system remained practically stationary for some time then it moved slightly North Northeastwards into East Central Bay and adjoining North Bay and concentrated into a Deep Depression at 14, 0000 UTC, it further intensified into Cyclonic storm Akash at 14, 0600 UTC over the same area. The storm moved northwards into North Bay at 0900 UTC. The cyclonic storm Akash moved Northnortheastwards, grazed the coast and crossed Chittagong Cox s Bazar coast near Chittagong at 15,0300 UTC. Maximum wind speed recorded at Cox s Bazar 83 kph and at Chittagong 74 kph. Chief amount of rainfall (in 24 hrs) on 14 th May recorded at Cox Bazar 107mm, Chittagong 71mm, Sandwip 82 mm, Comilla 58 mm, M.Court 95 mm and Feni 55 mm Cyclonic Storm "AKASH" May, , , , , , , , , , Severe Cyclonic Storm with a core of hurricane winds SIDR of November 2007

48 APPENDIX V (1) A low was detected first at 0000 UTC of over South Andaman Sea and adjoining area. The system initially moved slightly northwestwards into South East Bay and adjoining area and intensified into a well marked low at 1200UTC of the same day. After that it moved slightly northwestwards and intensified into a depression over the same area (Lat N and Long E) at 0600 UTC of the next day. Then the system remained practically stationary for some time and intensified into a deep depression over the same area (Lat N and Long E) at 0000 UTC of Then the system moved northwestwards and intensified further into a cyclonic storm SIDR (with ECP 998) and severe cyclonic storm SIDR (with ECP 988) over the same area at 0600 UTC and 1200 UTC of the same day respectively. Then the system remained practically stationary for some time over South East Bay and adjoining area and again moved north northwestwards and concentrated into a severe cyclonic storm SIDR with a core of hurricane winds at 0300 UTC of over the same area (Lat N and Long E). Again the system remained practically stationary for couple of hours and then started moving northwards keeping same intensity. At 1500 UTC of 15 November, the centre of the system crossed Bangladesh the coast near Baleshwar River at 1800 UTC of the same day and lay centred over southwestern part of Bangladesh. Then the system recurved northeastwards and weakened gradually. At 2100 UTC it lay centred over southern and central part of Bangladesh as a land depression. Cyclone SIDR hit offshore islands of Bangladesh at approximately 1230 UTC of 15 November and made landfall near Baleshwar River of Barisal Patuakhali coast at UTC during the low tide time. Wind speeds reached up to km per hour and affected 15

49 APPENDIX V (1) coastal districts fully and 15 other districts partly. When the cyclone SIDR made its landfall on the coastal region of Bangladesh, a massive destruction took place. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) advised the concerned authorities about SIDR by issuing Great Danger Signals nearly 27 hours before its landfall. The lead time enabled the disaster management agencies for the reduction of losses. Even than the cyclone SIDR killed 3,363 people and damaged houses, all types of crops and trees and washed away huge number of livestock. Total damage estimated: about 450 million USD 3. Depression (2 5 May, 2007) 4. Depression (19 22 June, 2007) 5. Depression (26 29 June, 2007) 6. Land Depression during July Well Marked Low during July Monsoon Depression of 06 August Depression of 13 August Depression of 18 August Depression of September Depression of October Depression October REVIEW OF THE COORDINATED TECHNICAL PLAN AND CONSIDERATION OF THE WORK PLAN FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS (Agenda item 8) 5.1 Meteorological Component Observations and Basic observing networks A total of 35 synoptic stations are in operation in Bangladesh. BMD has also10 Pilot Balloon stations and 3 Rawinsonde stations. All observed data are received and gathered at the National Meteorological Communication Centre, Dhaka and transmitted through GTS to RSMC New Delhi. The Dhaka, Chittagong and Bogra Rawinsonde Stations have been upgraded to GPS system recently. At present one observation at 0000 UTC is taken at Dhaka and Chittagong. Bangladesh is facing difficulties in maintaining these observations due to financial constraints. For tropical cyclones, rawinsonde observations are very important to determine the steering current for the prediction of cyclone track and even in the day to day forecasting. BMD should have at least four stations with sufficient resources for regular routine observations.

50 APPENDIX V (1) Four 10 cm S band radars with modern facilities are being operated at very strategic points at Dhaka, Khepupara, Cox s Bazar and Rangpur; each having a scanning radius of 400 km. Among these the Radars at Khepupara and Cox s Bazar are provided exclusively for storm warning purposes. The conventional radars of Cox s Bazar and Khepupara have already been replaced by Doppler facilities through JICA Assistance. The communication link is also upgraded with the connection of VSAT link. For near real time data transmission, a dedicated network between SWC and the observatories of BMD along with a website development are in the final stage under assistance from Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP), UNDP and is likely to be completed soon. SWC receives NWP products and World Area Forecast (WAFS) products from Bracknell, UK and also from NCMRWF, India through Internet. Network of meteorological observations in BMD: Synoptic Type of station RBSN SYNOP RBSN CLIMATE RBSN TEMP Upper air Rawinsonde stations Pilot balloon stations No. of station Remarks The network gives and average density of a synoptic station per 4,100 km 2. Three Rawinsonde stations at Dhaka, Chittagong and Bogra are in operation now. First two stations take one observation at 0000 UTC a day. Other one takes observations occasionally. Ten pilot balloon stations are taking out observations four times a day. Because of the establishment of the Hydrogen Plant in BMD, the gas production is regular and uninterrupted. As a result, the regularity of pilot balloon observations has been established. Weather radar cm S band radars at Dhaka and Rangpur and recently replaced Doppler Radars at Cox s Bazar and Khepupara are in full operation. For flood monitoring the establishment of a new Doppler Radar at Moulvi Bazar (north eastern part of the country) is in process and is likely to be completed by AWS 02 Operating in ZIA International Airport Kurmitola, Dhaka and Shah Amanat International Airport at Patenga, Chittagong. Agrometeorological stations 12 Are in operation.

51 APPENDIX V (1) Climatological stations 35 Are in operation. Rainfall stations 35 Are in operation. Aeronautical stations 09 Are in operation. Evaporation stations 12 Are in operation. Marine meteorological station Ship Working at Chittagong Sea Port Satellite receiving station 03 MTSAT ground receiving station is now operational. NOAA ground receiving station is not working due to some hardware problem. Experts are trying to solve the problem and hopefully it will be solved very soon. INSAT ground receiving station is not functional as it has not been upgraded from analog to digital mode. Chinese PCVSAT System and MICAPS have been installed at SWC, Dhaka through which GTS data and NWP products (ECMWF, T213, HLAFS etc.) are being received and analyzed. Others Seismological stations 01 Establishment of three new Seismological Observatories at Dhaka, Rangpur, Sylhet and the modernization of the existing one at Chittagong and networking between them have been completed in Telecommunication Systems Automation of telecommunication system. National telecommunication networks. 35 BMD Stations are connected to the Dhaka NMCC. Data from RTH New Delhi and 10 synoptic observatories of BMD are exchanged on routine basis through WMO s GTS. All the 35 observatories of BMD have been connected with NMCC Dhaka either by TP or Telephone and Single Sideband (SSB) etc. or by all the three systems. The UNDP project for connecting 35 observatories with SWC with Internet for reception of data from the observatories is now in the final stage. Integration is needed with interface between GTS line and local data acquisition system. The communication between Radar Station at Cox s Bazar and the Storm Warning Centre (SWC) and that between the Radar Station at Khepupara and the Storm Warning Centre (SWC) have been upgraded with VSAT link. NMCC uses PC based Message Switching System (MSS) software obtained from WMO programme for reception and transmission of all meteorological data GTS circuits

52 APPENDIX V (1) Dhaka is linked with New Delhi through a circuit having speed of 64 kbps (upgraded from 2400 bps). The circuit is now operational through PC Hardware/Software developed by Oriental Electronics Inc., Japan financed by WMO. Status of implementation of GTS circuits Circuits Dhaka New Delhi Type of GTS Regional circuit Status of implementation Future plan 64 kbps. Upgrade to 128 kbps The existing speed of GTS is only 64 kbps and should be upgraded to 128 kbps for acquiring NWP Forecast data Weather Forecasting Weather forecasting services The Storm Warning Centre of BMD issues routine day to day weather forecasts and tropical cyclone warnings. Two Main Meteorological Offices(MMO) carry out aviation weather forecasting; one at ZIA International Airport, Kurmitola, Dhaka and the other at Shah Amanat International Airport at Patenga, Chittagong. Besides these, there are two Dependent Meteorological Offices (DMO) at Cox s Bazar and Sylhet, respectively. Except aviation weather forecasts, which are issued by Meteorological Offices at Zia International Airport at Dhaka and eight other airports, major weather forecasts are issued by the Storm Warning Centre. Cyclone bulletins for national and international users in various sectors are issued at frequent intervals whenever cyclones develop in the Bay of Bengal and much has been achieved in reducing losses to human lives and property Dissemination of Cyclone Forecasts and Warnings The dissemination of cyclone information such as cyclone forecasts and warnings is an important task of disaster preparedness in Bangladesh. BMD plays an important role by initiating the warnings related to the formation of tropical disturbances in the Bay of Bengal and transmitting the warnings to disaster management sectors. The warnings and special weather bulletins are also disseminated to important Govt. Organizations, TV, Radio, mass media, etc. All the organizations work as per Standing Orders of Bangladesh Government during disasters. National dailies publish weather bulletins regularly, which in turn help increase public awareness. There are nearly 2300 cyclone shelters, but needs are more to cover the whole coast of 710 Km stretch NWP activities The Government of Bangladesh approved the project of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) with GoB funds. UK met office has been given the responsibility to prepare the specification for the procurement and make proposal for the NWP system design and the

53 APPENDIX V (1) requisite manpower to run the system operationally. This project will be implemented in three phases Climatological Services Computerized system for climate data management BMD uses its own Fortran Programs for data processing but it needs to be up graded to meet the demand of the society as well to meet the pressing requirement of BMD for its overall capacity enhancement to face the challenge of participation in climate change activities. WMO is requested to send an Expert Team to visit BMD to make assessment for upgradation of climatological data processing in order to meet the increasing demand of data from different stake holders Data storage and climatological publications Data storage and archiving are a regular phenomena in Bangladesh Meteorological Department. BMD supplies the Meteorological Data to the end users and also for research purposes with minimum charge. The archival system needs upgradation Meteorological Satellites INSAT MDD Receiving System was installed at the Storm Warning Centre, Dhaka and it was fully operational for reception of Satellite image, Cloud Motion Vector (CMV) and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) charts along with GTS and Aviation data (METAR, SPECI etc.). But because of the change over of INSAT from analogue to digital system. INSAT MDD receiving system to be upgraded to the digital system. BMD has NOAA and MTSAT (GMS) Satellite Receiving Stations. The Chinese FY series of geostationary satellite over 110 E longitude is nearerto the Bay of Bengal and so its imageries are obviously of better use to the meteorologists of Bangladesh. FY satellite receiving system can be installed at BMD for monitoring Tropical Cyclones in a better way. BMD has received PC VSAT System from China under VCP programme in July It was commissioned in April 2007 and is operational. BMD is receiving GTS data and NWP Products Data (ECMWF, T213 and HLAFS) and MICAPS is being used for Graphics Display. BMD needs FY series imageries also Tropical Cyclone Names BMD has been using a naming convention for the Tropical Cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal since the cyclone season of Accordingly, MALA in 2006, AKASH and SIDR in 2007 were used by BMD in compliance with RSMC, New Delhi. People of Bangladesh have gladly accepted the naming system ICAO: Aeronautical Meteorological Services in Bangladesh The Bangladesh Meteorological Department operates nine Aeronautical Meteorological Offices (one at Dhaka International Airport and eight at other airports) for supporting aviation. Bangladesh Meteorological Department provides all sorts of meteorological information to the Civil Aviation Authority.

54 APPENDIX V (1) 5.2 Hydrological Component BMD provides all sorts of data, information and weather forecast to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) of Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB). A Metropolitan Area Network (MAN) between SWC, Dhaka and FFWC was established in 1998 through which FFWC receives meteorological and hydrological data (including rainfall and water discharge data of up stream) along with satellite imageries on line. Bangladesh lies in between 20º 30' 26º 40' North and 88º º 40' East occupying and area of Sq. kms Continuous setting of hydrological process is going on in this area with the Bay of Bengal in the south and Great Himalayas in the North. Three major river systems Meghna Ganges Brahmaputra are flashing the country every year with an average volume of 14 Billion m3 of water. Floods continue to be a major hazard in Bangladesh. Floods in 1987, 1988, 1998 and 2004 caused widespread damage in rural and urban areas and set back the country s efforts to alleviate poverty. For the flood protection both structural and non structural measures are often taken. Bangladesh started National flood Forecasting and Warning Services in its FFWC (Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre) since FFWC is using MIKE 11 model of Danish Hydraulic Institute (DHI) for flood forecasting services. WMO has taken up Pilot project for Flash flood in northeastern part of the country. Rain estimation by Satellite technology has been adapted to increase the lead time beyond 72 hours. The regional forum ICIMOD has extended this technology. Improved inundation maps based on topographic and latest information on structures are issued form the FFWC. Bangladesh is also enjoying the regional hydro metrological information flow from upper countries, India, Nepal and China. CFAB/CFAN of Georgia Institute of Technology (GATECH) is helping FFWC by providing water discharge data with a view to enhancing the flood forecasting lead time. 5.3 Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) Component (Agenda item 8.3) Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) The Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) of Bangladesh Red Crescent Society (BDRCS) came into being in 1972 to minimize loss of lives and properties of the community people in cyclone disaster. Since 1973, the programme is being implemented jointly by the BDRCS and the Government of Bangladesh Working Area The programme covers 11 coastal districts (31 Upazillas) and is aided by 42,675 volunteers including 14,225 female in 2845 units (village). CPP is planning to increase the number of units in the southwestern part of Bangladesh after having experience of the severe cyclonic storm Sidr in Objectives Disseminate cyclone warning signals issued by the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) to every nook and corner of the cyclone prone areas. Assist people in taking shelter.

55 APPENDIX V (1) Rescue distressed people affected by the cyclone. Provide First aid to the people injured by the cyclone. Assist in relief and rehabilitation operations. Assist in the implementation of the BDRCS disaster preparedness plan Cyclone Preparedness during 2006 A total of thirteen depressions and two severe cyclones formed in the Bay of Bengal. Both the cyclones AKASH and SIDR hit Bangladesh coast. Cyclone Sidr of November 2007 caused colossal damage in the southwestern region of Bangladesh. The CPP volunteers along with local administration were alerted and kept ready for rescuing the victims Training Arranged dissemination meeting with the students of educational institutions of 31 Upazila under CPP command area. A total of 32,500 students participated in the meeting. The ultimate result of arranging this meeting is very much positive and significant. Arranged orientation on Cyclone Preparedness, self preparedness & guideline for the fishermen in 29 centers. A total of 1450 fishermen participated in the orientation Programme. The community trainers (TOT holding volunteers) and local CPP officers under took short training of RC/RC principles, movements, basic DM, role of volunteers, cyclone warning signal etc. with the volunteers attending in their regular unit and union committee meetings. Arranged refresher training on DM, HR, First Aid tracing and rescue among 2340 volunteers in 39 centers under CPP command area. Arranged three days long (TOT) and refresher TOT on DM first Aid tracing, search and rescue for CPP officer's and community trainers at Barishal, Nokhali and Cox's Bazar. 68 Participants from 31 Upazala under CPP Command area participated in the training courses. The respective Zonal officer's and youth volunteers of RC unit conducted the training Awareness Raising Activities Volunteers of Tajunuddin and Pathargatha arragned two separate cyclone field demonstration in their respective Upazala. About 10,300 community people, local elites, Govt. officials NGOs and students of educational institution witnessed the demonstration, which reflected the potential impact of cyclone awareness, preparedness and mitigation issues. International Disaster Reductions Day (IDRD) 2007 was observed by the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society in a befitting manner. With the spontaneous participation BDRCS officials a colourful rally and a discussion meeting was arranged to mark the day. In collaboration with the local administration all CPP field level offices observed the day Wireless Network

56 APPENDIX V (1) There are 3 radio workshops in the programme. In view of repair and maintenance of the wireless networks the following warning equipment and wireless sets have been repaired in those workshops and in the field by the concerned radio engineer and technician. Name of equipments Quantity HF wireless 22 VHF wireless 34 Radio 21 Megaphone 83 Solar panel cage pointing 52 Re installation VHF center 01 Re installation of VHF sets 05 Re installation of HF Antenna 07 Torch light 24 Hand siren 28 Antenna mast painting new VHF sets and 26 dip cycle battery have been received from International Federation of Red Cross & Red Crescent (IFRC) for strengthening the wireless network. 7,100 big size and 33,320 medium size batteries have been procured and sent to the CPP field stations to be used in the equipment lying with the warning group volunteers Organizational Activities As a continuous process, 3,289 units, 466 unions and 110 Upazilla Committee meetings were conducted with the volunteers in the stipulated year Activities of DMB BMD disseminates the Tropical Cyclone Warnings and other adverse weather warnings as per Standing Orders on Disaster to the Disaster Management Bureau (DMB) and Ministry of Food and Disaster Management (MoFDM) in time. The MoFDM and DMB take necessary steps for Disaster Prevention and Preparedness (DPP) in Bangladesh during the impending tropical cyclone. 5.4 Training Component (Agenda item 8.4) Foreign Training attended by BMD during 2007 Beside participating in different Workshops, Seminar and Conference, officers of BMD underwent foreign training and have participated in 33 training program abroad METEOROLOGICAL TRAINING INSTITUTE OF BMD ACTIVITIES

57 APPENDIX V (1) This institute imparts in service training to BMD's officers and staffs. The training courses include both theoretical and practical aspects. The practical courses include weather observation at the surface and upper levels, recording, data analysis and issue of forecasts. Besides the departmental employees, this institute also conducts special training courses on meteorology for other organizations too. Training on meteorological instruments and meteorological communication system are also imparted to the students of various educational institutions. The institute also guides the M. Sc. /M.S. /Ph. D students of various universities, who are doing their theses in the field of Meteorology and Environment. In every training course, clear conceptions about disaster preparedness and management and related Standing Orders are also imparted. This institute also conducts and co ordinates research and investigations on various meteorological problems particularly relating to Bangladesh and the region. The institute conducts 2 3 courses on an average, every year Regular Courses The regular scheduled courses are: i. Class II Forecaster s Course for Class I Officers. ii. iii. iv. Class III Assistant s Course. Class IV Observer s Course Class II Forecaster s Refresher Course for Class I Officers Areas of Training and Training Method i) Science and Meteorology, ii) Observation of weather phenomena, iii) Transmission and exchange of weather data, iv) Analysis of weather elements and charts, v) Forecasting & monitoring of the all types of weather and natural disasters vi) Recording and monitoring of Earthquake, vii) Satellite & Radar Meteorology, viii) Electronic and communication, ix) Research on Meteorology, x) Seminars and workshops in the disaster prone areas, xi) Practical training on Storm Surge Model (Dube Model) with two hours training everyday for two months Monitoring Evaluation The Meteorological Training Institute of BMD needs to be upgraded according to the latest technological development in the field of meteorology to make the ongoing process of switching to IT based technology successful. 5.6 Research (Agenda item 8.5)

58 APPENDIX V (1) A Research and Development Cell (R&D Cell) has been established in the Meteorological Training Institute of BMD for undertaking research in Meteorology. But more facilities are required. 5.7 Storm surge project (Agenda item 8.6) BMD already submitted a project entitled Storm Surge Disaster Reduction in the North Indian Ocean as per proforma to TSU. TSU can highlight the status on the project. 5.9 Publications (Agenda item 8.7) BMD publishes a Journal The Atmosphere every year under the banner of Abhawa Karmakarta Parishad (Meteporological Officers Association) financed by the Ministry of Science, Information and Communication Technology (SICT). 6. REVIEW OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OPERATIONAL PLAN (Agenda item 9) meeting. BMD reviewed the Tropical Cyclone Operation Plan. It can be discussed in the 7. TECHNICAL SUPPORT UNIT (Agenda item 10) BMD cooperates with TSU regularly. 8. SUPPORT FOR THE PANEL S PROGRAMME (Agenda item 11) The payment of contribution to the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Trust Fund for the period could not be possible due to the following problems: a. For the payment of the contribution to WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Trust Fund, our Government's Sanction Title is "Technical Support Unit (TSU), Bangkok, Thailand". So the Ministry of Finance sanctioned the necessary fund in favour of Technical Support Unit (TSU) every year to pay the contribution accordingly. But Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) is paying the contribution to the title "WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclone Trust Fund" b. Now our controlling Ministry has raised the question that the Government's sanction title is "Technical Support Unit (TSU)" but it is deposited to the title "WMO/ESCAP panel on Tropical Cyclone Trust Fund" which are not the same. Due to the difference of the title, our controlling Ministry has stopped the payment of the contribution from c. Under the circumstances, we need a letter from WMO to clarify the relation between WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclone Trust Fund and Technical Support Unit (TSU) for satisfying our Administrative Ministry to overcome the problem. This will help Bangladesh Meteorological Department to pay the contribution for the said period.

59 APPENDIX V (2) Country Report of INDIA OVERALL FRAMEWORK OF THE CTP ( ) 1. Meteorology 1.1 Specific objectives 1) Mark IV radiosonde has been implemented at all the stations with auto computation software. Efforts are being made to improve the systems by replacing the sensors with indigenous/ imported solid state sensors. However, status quo on number of existing RS/ RW stations is to be maintained till improvement is achieved in radiosonde as per recommendation of Sikka Committee on upgradation of observational network formed by Ministry of Earth Sciences. 2) Under the scheme Up gradation of standard test facility for barometer and thermometer, various calibration standards were procured. Among them are Stable Ozone Generators for calibration and conditioning of ozonesonde sensors. Action for purchase of 100 Nos. of Digital Barometers and Dead Weight Testers as primary standard is in advanced stage. 3) Following procurement action is in progress. a) Commissioning of new Integrated Airport Meteorological Instruments for 20 airports. b) Commissioning of 550 nos. of automatic weather stations ( AWS) c) Commissioning of automatic raingauge stations (ARGs) 1350 nos. 4) It is planned to procure 900 AWS & 4000 ARGs within the next few years to upgrade all part time observatories by AWS and DRMS stations by ARGs. 5) DIWE becomes defective mainly due to malfunctioning of Selsyn motors. These motors are out of market and hence all wind vane systems (54 Nos.) in which Selsyn motors are used, are being replaced with potentiometric windvanes 6) Facilities for calibrating the instruments (anemometers, barometers and barographs) are being upgraded. As this office is calibrating and certifying surface meteorological instruments, this facility will definitely facilitate higher capacity for calibration/certification. 7) Modernisation of Voluntary Observing Fleets (50 nos). Scheme has been forwarded to HQ for approval. 8) Construction of Test and Evaluation laboratory and Seismo Observatory as Extension of AWS building. 9) Scheme to modernise 45 airports in India. International airports will be equipped with integrated aviation meteorological systems which will include dual base line transmissometers catering to need of CAT I to CAT III operations. 10) Lightning detection system. 11) Anemometer array for detection of wind shear. 12) Microwave radiometer. 13) Cloud motion Vector (CMV) data generation frequency per day has been increased and it is available at 6 hourly interval (i.e., 4 times daily) from ) 5 GPS stations have been installed at five stations at Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai, Kolkata and Guwahati for measuring integrated water vapour during more number of GPS will be installed at different locations of India in Telecom Division is in the process of upgrading Telecom Network using 64 Kbps links internet and mobile communication. Regarding Telecom training, Telecom centre at Delhi is conducting training programmes in which Panel countries also participate. World Space Satellite transmission is deployed for Broadcast of Met. Data.

60 APPENDIX V (2) 1.3 NWP computer unit is going to install High Power Computing System to run the different NWP models during the current year. 1.4 NWP Unit runs the storm surge model for the Indian coasts in real time. 1.5 Efforts are continued to exchange of information among the Panel member countries to enhance the regional cooperation in Meteorology. Priority projects 1.2 Development of High Power Computer System (HPCS) to run high resolution models is in progress. The products generated from the system will be shared with the member countries through website. 1.3 The available data and information are put up in the IMD website. The data are also exchanged among member countries through GTS. 2 Hydrology FMO s issues Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) for different flood prone river basin. In order to improve QPF this division is developing a model under USAID project of Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India. Mahanadi river basin is selected for pilot studies in which Central Water Commission is taking one of hydrological component for flood forecasting. 3. Disaster prevention and preparedness I. Participation in International activities 1) Shri S.R. Ramanan, Director attended a SAARC seminar on Application of weather and climate forecasts in Socio Economic development & disaster mitigation at Dhaka, Bangladesh during 5 7 August ) Shri S.B. Thampi, Director participated in the first Asian Weather RADAR Conference (ARAD 2007) at Wuhan, China and presented a Scientific Paper on Cyclone OGNI a severe weather event tracked by DWR Chennai during October ) Dr. R.V. Sharma, DDGM RMC, Chennai attended WMO International Symposium on Public Weather Services: a key to service delivery held in Geneva during 3 5 December II. Important national level activities 1) Action under progress for replacing conventional Cyclone Detection Radars (CDR) at Karaikal and Bhuj by C Band Doppler Weather RADARs (DWR). Other conventional CDRs also would be replaced by DWRs in a phased manner. 2) Under IMD s modernization project, phase 1, 550 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and 1350 Automatic Rain Gauge Stations (ARGs) are to be established all over India in the near future. 3) As a part of Real Time Seismic Monitoring Network, advanced state of the art Digital Seismographs have been installed at Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai and Cyclone Warning Centre, Visakhapatnam. Multichannel wave form data are being transmitted on Real time to Central Receiving Stations at Seismo HQs New Delhi and Hyderabad simultaneously. 4) IMD has taken up the task of upgrading the analog CWDS receivers to digital in a phased manner. Modernisation of the new version of DCWDS which can remove deficiencies in the present version of DCWDS is being finalised. Power supply modifications for all the 101 DCWDS receivers in the field stations have been completed. 5) World Bank Hydrology project II is being implemented after the successful completion of World Bank project I. This project is being implemented in collaboration with IMD, Central Water Commissions and other State Government Hydrological Service Agencies. 6) During the year 2007, IMD officials participated in several seminars/ workshops/ training programmes/ meetings on disaster preparedness and mitigation. Important events are listed below: (i) Dr. H.R. Hatwar, DDGM (DM) participated in the Advanced Training cum Tutorial Course on Hurricane WRF held at IIT, Delhi as Course Co coordinator during January (ii) Shri P. Senthamarai Kannan, Met. I attended a training workshop on Hurricane WRF modeling System of NCEP, USA conducted by IIT, Delhi during 1 12 January 2007.

61 APPENDIX V (2) (iii) A meeting of Committee Experts was held on 3 rd April 2007 for discussing the specifications of C Band DWR for installation at Shimla under Hydrology Project. Meeting took place under Chairmanship of Shri P.K. Jain, DDGM (UI), New Delhi and attended by members from CWC, ISRO, IAF and IMD. (iv) Shri B. Arul Malar Kannan, Met. II attended three days workshop on Climate change and extreme weather events at NASC Complex, PUSA New Delhi during April (v) Dr. P.C.S. Rao, Met. I participated in a core group meeting at Anna University convened by Shri V.C. Menon, Hon ble Member, National Disaster Management Authority, Govt. of India during July III. State level and local activities 1) National Disaster Information System is being implemented at RMC Chennai 2) IMD officers participated in (i) Various state level pre and post monsoon season (cyclone season) preparedness meetings. (ii) District level cyclone distress mitigation committee meetings of cyclone prone Andhra Pradesh state. (iii) Various other state/ district level meetings, workshops, mock exercises and video conferences conducted by the state/ local government authorities on disaster management, early warning systems, flood situation, rescue, relief and rehabilitation, damage assessment etc. 3) Anna Institute of Management periodically conducts training programs for personnel of Government/ NGO/ other organizers in Disaster Mitigation and Management. About 510 trainees sponsored by this institute visited RMC Chennai. They were given familiarization in various aspects of forecasting and warning procedures followed by IMD in disaster mitigation and IMD officers gave 28 lectures to the trainees on the Role of IMD in disaster Management. 4) Shri Y.K. Reddy, Director delivered a lecture on Weather RADAR, meteorology and Natural disasters at Andhra Jatheya Kalasala, Machilipatnam on 8 January ) Dr. M. Satya Kumar, Director delivered a lecture on Role of IMD in Disaster Management at Acharya N.G. Ranga Agricultural University, Hyderabad on 22 January ) Shri K. Santhosh, Director participated in the activities in connection with inauguration of State Disaster Mangement Authority in Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala during May ) Dr. P.C.S. Rao, Met. I attended the nineteenth Dam Safety meeting convened by Secretary PWD at Govt. Secretariat, Chennai on 31 May ) Shri S. Venkateswaralu, Director participated in the seminar on Tsunami 2004 damages, resistant strcture valuation convened by Institution of Valuers, Visakhapatnam Branch on 28 July ) Dr. Y.E.A. Raj, and Dr. R. Suresh, Directors attended media workshop on Covering Natural Hazards and Risks organised by IPDC UNESCO at University of Madras on 18 August ) A training workshop TN PROBE Phase II on Meteorological and Environmental education for youth in coastal area schools was held at RMC Chennai under the joint auspices of Dept. of Science and Technology, RMC Chennai and Adithanar College of Arts and Science, Tiruchendur during August ) Dr. M. Satya Kumar, Director attended the meting convened by the Hon ble Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh on Cyclones and Early Warning Systems on 4 October ) A workshop on All hazards early warning system for various stakeholders was organised by RMC Chennai on 26 October ) Dr. Y.E.A. Raj and Shri S.R. Ramanan, Directors attended the meeting convened by Commissioner of Revenue Administration, Govt. of Tamil Nadu in connection with signing of MOU between State Government and IMD for establishing 88 ARGs and 11 AWSs in Tamil Nadu during November Specific Objectives 3.2 At IMD, Telecom Division has given links to different sections like NHAC, Seismo, Hydrology, Satmet. etc and all latest weather events are placed on IMD website. One central room for DPP is functional with NHAC. 4. Training

62 APPENDIX V (2) From India Shri M. C. Rastogi, Director (Telecom) participated in the WMO IOC Workshop on the Global Telecommunication Systems (GTS) for effective exchange of Tsunami Warnings and other related information and other warnings in the Indian Ocean held in Bangkok, Thailand from 18 to 20 December, From India Shri G. Suresh, Director (Seismology) attended two weeks training programme in Tsunami Science and Preparedness held in Seattle, USA from 21 July to 26 August 2007 Priority projects 4.1 The training on use of Doppler Weather RADAR products was imparted to the officers from Meteorological Department of Sri Lanka and Thailand (one each). DWR Chennai and Kolkata have been organizing periodic training programmes on DWR products for forecasters / other agencies like IAF, Navy etc. 4.2 Action is in progress 4.3 IIT, New Delhi is conducting training programme on modeling of storm surge. 4.4 Action is in progress by the Central Water Commission (CWC). 5. Research: Broad goal 1) The following research papers on tropical cyclones were published in MAUSAM (IMD s Quarterly journal of Meteorology, Hydrology & Geophysics) issues of 2007, Vol. 58, No. 1 4: (i) Trend of shift in the area of cyclogenesis over north Indian Ocean Charan Singh and B.R. Loe. (ii) Long term trends in the frequency of severe cyclones of the Bay of Bengal: observations and simulations O.P. Singh. (iii) The study of cyclonic disturbances over Indian seas during Siddhartha Singh, R.K. Giri and S.D. Attri. (iv) Some salient features of the Arabian Sea severe cyclonic storm of 5 10 May 2004 S. Sridharan and A. Muthuchami. (v) Behaviour of tropical cyclones along the east coast of India prior to landfall Charan Singh and B.K. Bandyopadhyay. (vi) Asymmetric structure of severe cyclonic storm of north Indian Ocean as derived through INSAT OLR data Y.E.A. Raj, A. Muthuchami and Ramanathan. ii) Studies on storm surge are being initiated. Specific objectives 1) Electronic version of IMD s Storm Track Atlas (e Atlas): This is a project undertaken at CWRC, RMC Chennai with an objective to bring out an electronic version of IMD s Storm Track Atlas. Development of the software is completed. Digital database of the tracks of cyclones and depressions that formed over Indian seas during the period has been generated in house. Tracks of these cyclones and depressions, given various types of inputs such as year, month, intensity, basin of formation and dissipation, coastal crossing etc., can be generated instantaneously by using the software. In addition, several types of tabular outputs and maps depicting spatial variation of features such as formation, dissipation, movement vector, direction of movement, recurvature, coastal crossing can be generatred. The e Atlas software is expected to be made available to users by March The e Atlas should give substantial boost to the cyclone warning capabilities of India as well as other WMO/ ESCAP Panel countries. WMO/ ESCAP Panel in its 33 rd session appreciated the efforts made by India to digitize the IMD s storm track atlas.

63 APPENDIX V (2) 2) Project CDSTAT This is a user friendly software on Generation of comprehensive database of statistics on Depressions, Cyclonic Storms and Severe Cyclonic Storms that formed over north Indian Ocean undertaken at CWRC, RMC Chennai and completed. A report is being published. The software has been developed in house and consists of several FORTRAN programs which can generate any type of statistics on formation, dissipation and coastal crossings of Depression, Cyclonic storm and Severe Cyclonic storm over North Indian Ocean for the period It is constantly updated and can generate some statistics that are not included in the e Atlas. Being an in house software, any additional feature can also be incorporated in future. 3) A project on evaluation of Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS) for Indian coasts has been completed and has been published as Met. Monograph (No. Synoptic Meteorology 5/2007). Copies of this monograph are available at the O/o the ADGM (R), IMD Pune. 4) A CLIPER model using LOESS technique for forecasting Cyclonic storms over Indian region is being developed based on 35 year data of ) A project for prediction of Wave Height over Indian Seas using nomograms and dynamical models and verification using BUOY data is being initiated by RMC Chennai.

64 Summary of Meteorological Activities A Surface Observatory Network: APPENDIX V (2) a) High Wind Speed Recorders (HWSRs) 10 sets of HWSRs (Ultrasonic type) have been installed at East and West coast stations of India during Oct May Also, 10 more HWSRs, procured under World Bank Project have been installed at West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu Coast. Presently eight systems installed during Oct May 2001 are unserviceable for want of spares, mainly spare display and sensor. It has been experienced that the display and sensor of the systems become defective mainly due to lightning activity at coastal stations. This office has, therefore, erected new lightning arresters with proper earthing at all the coastal stations. Indent has also been placed for procurement of spares for maintaining the systems. In addition, a newly designed DIWE system will also be installed at these stations in due course. b) Radiation Network The Radiation network consists of a total of 43 stations. There are 20 principal radiation stations where measurement of direct solar radiation (either continuous or spot readings), Global Solar Radiation, Diffuse Sky Radiation, and Sunshine hours are made. Remaining radiation stations measure only one or two of these parameters and the duration of sunshine. All these stations give generally satisfactory performance except for Gulmarg where the measurements are suspended due to disturbed local conditions since as per information received from the station. Central Radiation Laboratory at Pune is maintaining this network of radiation measuring stations. It includes maintenance of the absolute standards and transfer standards, repairing and calibration of sensors, calibration and maintenance of network instruments, etc. Inter comparison of regional standard Pyrheliometer is done with international standards after every five years. During all recorders have been replaced with data logger, thereby improving data quality and improving MTBF. Central Radiation Laboratory, Pune, is a National Centre for India and also designated as Regional Radiation Centre for RA II by WMO. A radiation measuring station is also functioning at Maitri, Antarctica for last many years, recording global radiation, diffuse radiation and sun photometer measurements. c) AWS NETWORK INSAT AWS systems installed during had become obsolete and have been replaced with the state of the art systems. One hundred SUTRON make AWS systems and 25 ASTRA make AWS systems were procured during June All AWS systems have been installed. The names of installed AWS field sites are given in the IMD web site. One receiving Earth Station in redundant mode has been installed in INSAT AWS Laboratory, Pashan, Pune. AWS data from AWS sites are being received at Pune Receiving Earth Station. From Pune Receiving Earth Station, hourly data is being sent to AMSS Mumbai through dedicated lease line for onward transmission through GTS to different users. Quality of AWS data from new AWS stations is under evaluation. Future Plans: 1. It is planned to procure 900 AWS & 4000 ARGs within the next few years to upgrade all part time observatories by AWS and DRMS stations by ARGs. 2. All wind vane systems (54 Nos.) in which Selsyn motors are used, are being replaced with potentiometric windvanes 3. Facilities for calibrating the instruments (anemometers, barometers and barographs) are being upgraded. 4. Modernisation of Voluntary Observing Fleets (50 nos). Scheme has been forwarded to HQ for approval.

65 APPENDIX V (2) 5. Construction of Test and Evaluation laboratory and Seismo Observatory as Extension of AWS building. 6. Scheme to modernise 45 airports in India has been approved in Council of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences (CMAS) 59. International airports will be equipped with integrated aviation meteorological systems which will include dual base line transmissometers catering to need of CAT I to CAT III operations. 7. Lightning detection system. 8. Anemometer array for detection of wind shear. 9. Microwave radiometer. B Upper Air Network: In I.M.D., upper air observations are made at 39 RS/RW stations twice a day at 00 and 12 UTC. These observations provide Met data i.e. pressure, temperature, humidity & wind at various levels in the atmosphere upto an altitude of kms. Kochi and Jaipur are taking only RS ascents, no wind measurements are taken. There are 62 Pilot Balloon observatories spread all over the country conducting upper air wind measurements 2 4 times a day providing wind speed and direction up to a maximum altitude of 18 kms employing optical theodolites. 1. Types of ground equipment used RS/RW observatories have been equipped with three types of ground Equipment as under: i. Radiosonde Ground equipment (ECIL/DIGITAL make) along with X band Wind finding Radars (EEC/MULTIMET). ii. IMS 1500 Radiotheodolite iii. SAMEER Radiotheodolite All the stations are provided with standby Radiosonde ground equipment so that if the primary unit goes defective then the ascent may be taken with the standby equipment. a) Radiosonde Ground Equipment (RSGE): Radiosonde Ground Equipment (RSGE) receives RS data. Wind data is obtained from EEC/BEL RADARs by tracking the balloon borne passive target. RSGE operates at a frequency of 401 MHz. IMD procured RSGE from ECIL and also from DIGITAL India limited Mumbai. Both equipment work on the same principle. ECIL make ground equipments had served their useful life period. These equipments were replaced by DIGITAL make ground equipments, which were procured in two lots of 14 numbers in 1986 and 40 numbers in September 1991, along with main unit spares and other spares. Wind finding RADARs are installed at 16 numbers of RSGE stations. The X Band RADARs are of two types i.e (1) EEC make (2) BEL make multimet RADAR. EEC make RADARs are installed at 7 stations and BEL make multimet RADARs at 9 stations. b) Pilot Balloon Observatories: There are 62 PB observatories, which take 2 4 ascents per day for obtaining upper air wind data with the aid of optical theodolite. 100 nos. optical theodolites indigenously fabricated and supplied by M/S Scientific Instrument (P) Ltd. Hyderabad were procured in The optical theodolites are being serviced and maintained in IMD Workshop by procuring spares from the manufacturing firm. Development of hand held data loggers along with software for PB computations has been completed under an MOU with SAMEER. After completion of tests the same will be implemented at 62 stations.

66 APPENDIX V (2) All the optical theodolites would be replaced with new theodolites for improved ascents. Procurement procedures are in the final stages for 70 numbers of optical theodolites and 5 numbers of electronic optical theodolites. c) Cyclone Detection RADAR: There are 11 nos of S band CDR stations out of which 6 are using conventional RADARs, 4 stations viz Chennai, Kolkata, Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam have DWRs imported from M/s Gematronik, Germany and one station SHAR, Sriharikota has indigenous DWR developed by ISRO The proposals of replacing conventional RADARs by latest state of art S band imported DWR at Mumbai and Paradip have been included in first phase of Modernisation Plan. d) Storm Detection RADAR: There are at present 9 X band RADARs working for the purpose of storm detection. Also there are 2 S band RADARs working at S band at Sriganganagar and Jaiselmer for monitoring development of convective clouds and thunderstorm formation and one S band RADAR at Mausam Bhavan for testing / training purpose. e) Wind Finding RADAR There are 9 X band wind finding RADARs working in X Band at Bhubaneswar AP, Goa, Mangalore, Visakhapatnam, Bhopal AP, Karaikal, Machilipatnam, Patna AP, and Thiruvananthapuram. f) Weather Cum Wind Finding RADARs There are 8 X band RADARs used for weather cum wind finding purpose. These are installed at Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Mohanbari, Chennai, Hyderabad airport and Delhi (H.Q.), Patiala and Srinagar. Future Plans: DWRs are to be installed at; Agartala, Karaikal, Goa, Patna, Lucknow, Patiala, Nagpur, Delhi ( HQ), Mohanbari, Mumbai,Paradeep and Bhopal. The supply order for indigenous RADAR have been placed on on M/s BEL, Bangalore and the RADARs are expected to be installed at Bhuj and Kochi by March, C Meteorological Satellites: i) Digital Cyclone Warning Dissemination System A Digital CWDS (DCWDS) scheme has been implemented in Andhra Pradesh under Andhra Pradesh Hazard Mitigation and Emergency Cyclone recovery (APHM & ECR) project under World Bank funds and 100 DCWDS stations in Andhra Pradesh with an uplink station at IMD Chennai, have been installed. One more DCWDS station has been installed at Kavarati in Lakshadweep Island. DCWDS has advantage of reception of INSAT MSS Acknowledgement messages and has shown good results as the quality of voice is good compared to Analog type. Keeping in view the achievements of above schemes Future Plan IMD is planning to replace the existing 252 Analogue CWDS by DCWDS receivers increasing the number to 300 Nos. of DCWDS stations all along the East and West Coast of India. Thus total number of DCWDS receivers will be 400 with uplink stations at IMD (Satellite Meteorology Division), New Delhi. The existing uplink station at RMC Chennai will work as standby. ii) INSAT Automatic Weather Stations/ Automatic Raingauage system: Under the first phase of modernization of IMD, 125 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) were installed. Data of the AWS stations is available on Global Telecommunication System (GTS) for user agencies.

67 APPENDIX V (2) iii) Meteorological Data Dissemination (MDD): The analog MDD system is shortly going to be replaced by the digital MDD system. Under this project one uplink and four downlink stations have been installed under phase I at different stations of India. All the systems are working satisfactorily. Through this system, INSAT imageries, GTS data and analyzed weather charts are regularly being transmitted in LRIT/ HRIT format using INSAT 3C satellite. The system is user friendly and has the capability of zooming, sectorization and animation of images. The forecaster can use these for analysis of cloud top temperatures, charting, and drawing of isotherms. Surface and upper level data, route forecast, terminal Airport data are also disseminated through this system. Under this project 33 more receiving stations in India and 3 receiving stations at Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka will be installed under Phase II of the programme which is expected to be completed by March, Future plans: i) India Meteorological Department has proposed expansion of AWS and ARG network under modernization programme. 550 AWS and 1350 ARGs will be installed all over India under this programme. IMD proposes to have at least one AWS in one District and one ARG in a Taluka. In this expansion programme, action for procurement of these AWS/ ARG is in progress. The installation of the equipment on sites will start from June 2008 and likely to be completed within next 18 months. ii) IMD is planning to install/ commission two numbers of METOP satellite data receiving and processing systems at New Delhi and Chennai. METOP is a polar orbiting meteorological satellite operated by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. The Satellite is a part of the EUMETSAT Polar System. It has several payloads namely. a) Advanced very high resolution radiometer/ 3 (AVHRR/3) Visible/ infrared radiometer for global measurement of cloud cover, sea surface temperature, ice, snow and vegetation cover and characteristics, 6 channels. b) High resolution Infrared radiation sounder/ 4 (HIRS) Atmospheric sounder for temperature and humidity profiles, surface temperature, cloud parameters and total ozone, 19 infrared channels ( µm), 1 visible channel. c) Advanced Microwave sounding units A1 and A2 (AMSU A) Microwave sounder for temperature sounding under clear and overcast conditions, 15 channels in the 23 to 90 Ghz frequency range. d) Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS), Self calibrating, cross track scanning, five channel microwave, full power radiometer operating in the 89 to 190 GHz range to provide information on atmospheric water vapour. e) Advanced Data Collection System/ 2 (A DCS) f) Search and Rescue Satellite (SARSAT) aided Tracing System g) Space Environment Monitor (SEM 2), Multi channel charged particle spectrometer for measurements of the population of the earth s radiation belts and the solar proton and electron flux density. h) Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), Infrared Michelson, Interferometer for temperature sounding, water vapour and ozone monitoring. IASI covered the spectral range from mm, 2112 km swath width and a resolution of 12 km at nadir. i) Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) j) Global navigation satellite system receiver for atmospheric sounding (GRAS). k) Global ozone monitoring experiment (GOME) Nadir viewing UV and spectrometer to measure radiation back scattered from the atmosphere and reflected from the earth surface in the UV and visible range nm with a spectral resolution of nm. iii) Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) will be introduced in INSAT 3D (expected to be launched during 3 rd quarter of 2008) to give centre and intensity of Tropical Cyclone

68 APPENDIX V (2) automatically. INSAT 3D will have 6 channel imager and 19 channels sounder as meteorological payloads. iii) 50 more number of GPS for measuring integrated water vapour will be installed at different locations of India in

69 APPENDIX V (3) Maldives Report for the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Thirty Fifth Session Manama, Bahrain 5 9 May 2008 Review of the 2007 Cyclone Season Maldives Pre monsoon thunder activity prolonged for about 10 hours starting from 5: 45pm on the 29 April over the central atolls. Damages to several house hold appliances were reported during this incident. THE UNUSUALLY STRONG SWELL, TIDAL WAVES HIT MALDIVES ISLANDS Tidal waves entering the islands The swell which caused the unusual tidal waves were originated from the extratropical system in the southern hemisphere, approximately 5630km southwest of Addu Atoll, Maldives. The deep Polar Lows normally generate these classical winter waves during the season; however, they were unusually high this winter. According to reports, the strong high waves first hit Mauritius, La Reunion on 12 and 13 May The maximum swell wave height was estimated at nearly 11m in that region. These swells travelled far away to the northeast and across equatorial waters without losing much of the energy they acquired from the strong wind source. The astronomical factor with relate to the position of earth, sun and moon also played an important role in enhancing the situation. The highest tide levels were observed during May 16 and 17 th. The severity of breaking waves depended highly on peak tide periods. The unusual swells approached Maldives from southwest and severely hit at the islands located in the west and southern coast of the atolls. Gushing seawaters from the tidal waves caused extensive damage to buildings, houses, trees, crops and household appliances. Although, there was no loss of life, several houses were waterlogged and many families had to be shifted to unaffected areas. Lashing waves brought severe damage to number of fishing vessels, inundated and eroded several beaches and even landslides were reported in some areas. Several islands are short of

70 APPENDIX V (3) fresh water and sewerage systems were destroyed. The total of 88 inhabited islands was affected by these dangerous waves. Recurrence of tidal waves happened to be more frequent in Tidal waves again swamped more than 50 islands across the country on 18 and 19 June and continued to hamper almost the rest of the month. Significant damages were also reported from some of those islands. Maldives experienced similar unusual waves during th of April 1987 caused by a storm in the south Indian Ocean near Australian region. The waves approached from southeast and lashed in the atolls mostly in the east. Since then, with the establishment of monsoons each year, tidal waves had become a known phenomenon. May The monsoon trough intensified and brought widespread heavy rain to the Maldives on 27 May Frequent squalls that swept several islands in central and northern atolls between 10 am and 8 pm. Severe damages include blown away 25 roofs, uprooting number of trees and coconut palms in north, south Thiladunmathi and north Miladunmadulu atolls. The maximum winds recorded were at the ordered of 46 to 54 miles per hour. June With the combined effect of the strong trough of low pressure and the south west monsoon, June 2007 happened to be considerably stormy and disastrous month. Frequent spells of heavy rain, strong gusty winds and rough seas were common features over the month. July A low level circulation formed over the Maldives on 02 July 2007 brought widespread rain and isolated heavy thundershowers in northern and southern atolls. Heavy rainfall of 134 mm reported in Fuvahmulah and 64 mm in Gan, Addu Atoll. The low pressure trough formed over the Maldives on 23 rd July brought a high amount of rainfall to the country. Heavy rain falls for the day were 95 mm in Hanimaadhoo followed by 59 mm in Kelaa. Flash flooding was reported in southern and northern atolls. August Another trough of low pressure gave heavy rain and isolated squally showers on 21 August Heavy rainfall of 52 mm was recorded in Veymandoo. Squally winds increased 49 mph at Hanimaadhoo. As the trough intensified on 29 th August, heavy down pours to central and southern atolls. Heavy rainfall of 76 mm in Gaviyani fuvanmulah, 70 mm in Dhaalu Kudahuvadhoo and 62 mm in Male. This session of bad weather prevailed till end of the month. September

71 APPENDIX V (3) On 04 September 2007 heavy rainfall of 112 mm in Kadhdhoo, 98 mm in Fuvahmulah, 95 mm in Kaadehdhoo and 62 mm in Veymandoo. Strong surface winds sustained for above 4 hours over the central atolls. The low pressure trough further intensified on 10 September and caused formation of dense convective clouds over southwest of Maldives. On the following day, 85 mm of rain recorded at Kaadehdhoo, 81 mm in Veymandoo. Severe flooding was reported in Dhaalu Meedhoo. This trough deepened further and concentrated in to a Depression and brought heavy thundershowers to the country. Rough seas and floods were experienced during these days. October An intense trough on 3 October 2007 gave heavy down pours like 114 mm at Kaadehdhoo. It is reported that some islands in south Huvadhu Atoll were severely flooded causing damage to number of household items. Meanwhile, maximum gusty winds of 44 mph were also reported in Gan. The average surface wind speed of mph sustained for 3 4 hours in central Maldives and gusty winds of 53 mph were recorded at the National Meteorological Centre. The same system brought frequent heavy showers with isolated thunderstorms to central atolls on 7 October The tropical cyclone that formed in the NW of Maldives in the Arabian Sea brought unsettled weather with strong winds over central and southern atolls disrupting island to island transportation. A number of structural damage to islands and properties were also reported. November Unlike past several years rainfall was very less during this November. Even the Severe Cyclonic Storm (SIDR) formed in the central Bay of Bengal did not bring much precipitation to Maldives. However, a low level circulation formed in the south brought heavy showers to southern atolls on 15 and 16 th November December Very intense convective clouds associated with the trough over the Maldives brought very heavy rain to southern atolls giving a record high amount of rainfall for this year! Kaadehdhoo in the South registered 199 mm in 24 hours on 6 December Two days later Fuvahmulah, also in the south recorded 158 mm. Due to heavy rain, some islands in South Huvadu atoll and Fuvahmulah have been flooded and several people from that locality were severely affected by this widespread flood. The rest of December was also very wet and brought floods to Hadhunmathi as well. The annual rainfalls totaled at 2532 mm in Kaadehdhoo followed by 2166 mm in Hadhunmathi area.

72 APPENDIX V (3) 8. 1 Meteorological Component Upper air Observation Making of Radio sonde observation were continued at the Meteorological Office, Gan (WMO # 43599) in 2007 under the Global Upper Air Network (GUAN). TEMP message (at 12UTC) is transmitted daily through GTS from this station. Like last several years, no upper air observations were made at Male (WMO # 43555) in The WF100 wind finding radar with the hydrogen generator remained unserviceable for many years. The location of Maldives in the Indian Ocean happens to be a data sparse area, upper air observations from the south and central Maldives are very important to us as well as the entire meteorological community in the region. Hence, Maldives urge assistance from WMO/ ESCAP and Panel members to consider rebuilding of our upper air network. Surface Observations Maldives has 5 meteorological stations of which 4 are manned 24 hours and both synoptic and aviation reports are made on all five stations. Only two of them are categorized additionally as upper air stations. Hanimaadhoo (43533) surface Male (43555) surface + upper wind +AWS Kadhdhoo (43577) surface +AWS Kaadehdhoo (43588) surface UTC Gan (43599) surface + radiosonde +AWS Dharavandhoo surface ( AWS) Nilandhoo surface ( AWS) Five Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) were installed and start functioning in mid/ late Some more additional AWS stations are planned for 2008 as well. Rainfall Stations Across the country, Maldives has 7 rainfall stations which measure only accumulated rainfall for 24 hours and reading are collected at 0300UTC for national use. HA. Kela Sh. Funadhoo B. Dharavandhoo M. Muli Dh. Kudahuvadhoo Th. Veymandoo Gn. Fuvanmulah

73 APPENDIX V (3) Meteorological Satellites The INSAT receiving system remains unserviceable since When efforts had been made to repair the system eventually failed, the India Meteorological Department has agreed upon replacing the old analogue MDD system with a new digital system. Hence, we urge India to accomplish this task in As a part of Multi hazard Early Warning System, Department of Meteorology received a Satellite Receiving System and a Doppler Weather Radar. Although the Radar is not yet operational, satellite imageries from FY2 are received regularly. Numerical Weather Prediction Department of Meteorology also runs its own modified MM5 model as a trial and plan to expand this service in Telecommunications The computer based telecommunication system between the local Meteorological Offices and the National Meteorological Centre (NMC), functioned very well during NMC s Global Telecommunications System (GTS) upgrade The National Meteorological Centre s GTS has been upgraded using COROBOR s MESSIR COMM message switching systems during This link is a TCP/IP based multi channel communication link that is capable of handling vast amount of data. In addition to RTH New Delhi, Male is also connected to Colombo and Melbourne through this GTS link. The upgraded GTS is working smoothly. The National Weather Service (NWS) of the United States in collaboration with the WMO generously aided Maldives for this program. Forecasters Workstation The Analyzing, Forecasting, Data processing and Operating System (AFDOS) remain unserviceable. To replace AFDOS, China Meteorological Agency has donated Meteorological Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process System (MICAPS). Expert team from China Meteorological Administration (CMA) is scheduled to arrive early 2008 to install MICAPS. Meteorological information through internet The official website of the Department of Meteorology and have served its users very well in Users can have easy access to weather forecasts, warnings, meteorological reports and aviation weather charts. These products were updated whenever required.

74 APPENDIX V (3) 8. 2 Hydrological Component Flash flood forecasting can be satisfactorily done when the newly installed Doppler Weather Radar become operational. Otherwise there are no much hydrological issues in the Maldives Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Component To establish multi hazard early warning system in the country, the Department of Meteorology (DoM) in collaboration with UNDP had started in 2005, a nation wide project categorized to 3 Phases. At the end of 2007, Phase I was completed; upgrading of communication system (GTS), installation of Doppler Weather Radar and Satellite Receiving System at the National Meteorological Centre. Two Automatic Weather Stations were installed at Daravandoo of Baa Atoll and Nilandoo of Faafu Atoll. One short period seismometer was installed in Gan Island Addu Atoll. And most of the activities of Phase II were already in place. Hardware for 2 Broadband Seismometers has arrived in Male and is planned to install them early DoM upgraded its internet service from 512kbps to 5mbps and a redundant VSAT internet service was also acquired in order to collect firsthand information from various international organizations easily in time. Warnings and advisories The Department of Meteorology, Maldives (DoM) issued timely and accurate severe weather warnings and disseminated them to the public through mass media and DoM website. Apart from severe weather or tropical cyclone warnings, tsunami warning reports received from PTWC, JMA through GTS and internet were also disseminated to public satisfactorily in time. Under the Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) of the Department, the warnings were additionally dispatched through cooperate SMS and Hotlines to designated authorities Training In the year 2007, the department has given training in various sectors. Following are the details of the short term training given. 1 2 Name of the Training Program Country Duration Participants International Training Course on Air Pollution Management Training Course on Meteorological Instrumentation Thailand 16 Jan 15 Feb 1 India 10 months 1

75 APPENDIX V (3) UNESCO IOC International Training Course on Tsunami Numerical Modeling Course II Training of Technician Working for ABC Project USGS Training Course in Advanced Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Regional Program in Advanced Seismology and Tsunami Warnings Certificate Programme in Tsunami Science & Preparedness Thailand 29 June 6 July 2 Thailand 3 months 2 Thailand Aug 2 Malaysia Aug 2 USA 8 Storm Surge Forecasting in IIT Delhi India These trainings were funded by the WMO, IOC, US AID and the Maldives government. July 21 August August September 2 In addition to these, the department participated in workshops and seminars held at national and international levels. 2 1 Ongoing Graduate level and Post Graduate level programs funded by the department s regular budget. Name of Training Programmes Country Duration Participants 1 Master of Science in Communication Engineering Malaysia Bachelor of Science in Physics India / Bachelor of Science in Geological Sciences Bachelor of Science in Chemistry India /10 2 India With the recent introduction of 2 other disciplines; Oceanography and Seismology, the department is expanding its network by introducing various equipments in these fields and as well as Meteorology. To fully utilize these equipments we urgently need to train staffs in these areas. Name of Training Program Country Duration Participants 1 Bachelor of Science in Oceanography India 3 Years 2 2 Bachelor of Science in Meteorology India 3 Years 2

76 APPENDIX V (3) 3 4 Advance Training course on General Meteorology Training Course on Meteorological Instrumentation India 10 months 3 India 10 months 1 5 Training Course on Radar Meteorology Any 1 2 months 4 6 Training course on Data Processing and Analysis Assistance is required in the following areas: NWP WRF / WAM Storm Surge Modeling Tsunami Propagation Modeling Climate Modeling 8. 5 Research Any Any 4 Research projects on air pollution were carried out in the Climate Observatory of Hanimaadhoo. Maldives Climate Observatory Location in an Island called Hanimaadhoo ( 6N, 73 E) Major purpose Monitoring Transboundary Air pollution Measurement TechniquesRemote sensing mainly Passive, In situ Technique Passive Equipments Microtops and Cimel Sun photometer for Aerosol optical depth and for Ozone, Condensation Particle Counter (CPC) to measure number of particles, Sample mobility Particle Seizer (SMPS) to measure particle size, Aethelometer for Black carbon, Nephelometer for Scattering and pyranometers with sun tracer, for direct, diffusive radiation, Wet only collectors for collecting rain water for ph, EC, and ion analysis. DATA shows the country experience high concentration of Aerosols in North east Monsoon compare to South West Monsoon and also rain analysis DATA shows increased acidity (ph<5) in rain water in some months in the north east monsoon New Joint Initiatives In the wake of Indian Tsunami Early Warning Centre (ITEWC) coming to existence in late 2007, DoM started negotiations with that centre for possible exchange of data between the two organizations in regular and timely basis. We are pleased that

77 APPENDIX V (3) ITEWC mutually agreed to provide tsunami/ earthquake information along with oceanographic data to Maldives Publications (A) Maldives contributed information on significant weather events and developments in the meteorological service to Panel News Letter. **********************

78 APPENDIX V (4) Country Report of Pakistan ( ) for 35 th Session of WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones for the Bay of Bengal & the Arabian Sea (Manama, Bahrain from 5 th 9 th May, 2008) Pakistan Meteorological Department Headquarters Office P.O.Box 1214, Sector H 8/2 Islamabad Pakistan Tel: +(92 51) Fax: +(92 51) tsupmd@yahoo.com, tsupmd@hotmail.com

79 APPENDIX V (4) 1. Tropical Cyclone activity: Tropical Cyclone (YEMYIN) Over the Arabian Sea during 25 th 26 th June, 2007 The remnant of a Deep Depression which developed over West Central Bay of Bengal on 21 st June and moved West Northwestwards across South India during 22 nd 23 rd June before reaching over the Northeast Arabian Sea. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) issued its first weather advisory at 0800 UTC. After arriving over the North Arabian Sea, this monsoon weather system become intensified and on 25 th June, at 0900 UTC the system laid as a Deep Depression at a distance of about 150 km South of Karachi and PMD predicted that it may intensify into a Tropical Cyclone. On the same day, this monsoon weather system converted into Tropical Cyclone and it laid at about 150 km South of Karachi at Lat N and long 67.0 E at 1300 UTC. Then it continued to move in West Northwesterly direction. The Tropical Cyclone was named YEMYIN. On 25 th June, 2007, at 2200 UTC, the system laid at about 100 km from Karachi. Then moving further West Northwest ward, the cyclone Yemyin crossed the Makaran Coast near Ormara / Pasni at about 0600 UTC. Thereafter, while moving further West Northwest ward, the Cyclone weakened rapidly to become firstly a depression and then a low pressure. Under the influence of this Cyclone widespread Rainfall was observed in many areas of Balochistan and Sindh. Particularly costal areas of Balochistan / Sindh and the areas adjoining to the Sindh Makaran Coast received heavy to extremely heavy rainfall at times accompanied with strong gusty winds. National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) reported, as of 14 th September, 2007, the death toll were 420 (205 in Balochistan and 215 in Sindh) whereas the number of missing persons is 109 (80 in Balochistan and 29 in Sindh). About 75,623 houses were destroyed. 2. Meteorological Component (i) Improvement of facilities: (a) New Developments in PMD A wind assessing equipment SODAR has been installed at Agro Met Observatory Tando Jam to record wind data, up to the height of 200 meters,

80 APPENDIX V (4) during Monsoon period. The data recorded with SODAR was analyzed / compared with Wind Mapping Data recorded at Gharo and Karachi. An Aeromet Observatory has been established on 16 th March, 2007 to meet the meteorological operational requirement at newly established Sialkot International Airport Ltd (SIAL). (ii) Technical Advancement (a) Pakistan Meteorological Department has been using High resolution Regional Model (HRM) of DWD (the national meteorological service of Germany) is an operational model for numerical weather prediction since January, For this purpose 13 HP DL 380 Servers having GHz (436.8 G FLOPS) processing power, are being used at PMD s Research & Development Division, Islamabad. The initial and later boundary conditions for HRM are taken from DWD s global model GME with the multilayer soil model. Initially the model was run with 28 Km resolution and the simulations were done once daily by using GME date of 0000 UTC. However, since March, 2008, the model is being run with the resolution of 22 Km and the simulation are also being performed twice a day by using GME date of 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC. Further, the model output for the next 24, 48 and 72 hours (in the form of prognostic weather charts for various variables) are also up dated twice a day at about 0430 UTC and 1630 UTC. These products are also available at PMD s website During , PMD is planning to run the model with the resolution of 7 km. In this connection process of procurement of necessary hardware to update the existing computer system with processing power of GHz (1.54 T FLOPS) has already been initiated. (b) PMD with the collaboration of the Ministry of Information Technology is exploring the possibilities of the issuance of weather warnings to the public through mobile phone SMS for the safety of the people in case of high impact weather events like severe storms, high winds etc. In this connection, Ministry of Information Technology has started negotiating with the Mobile Phone Service Providers. (iii) Significant Weather Events Heavy rainfall during the month of February and March 2007 was recorded due to strong westerly waves passing over Pakistan. Heavy snow fall also recorded in the hilly areas and over the catchments of the rivers Chenab and Jhelum which resulted in the high Flood peak in these rivers causing inundation of low laying areas along these rivers. High flood peak at Marala in Chenab River on 13 th March 2007 and another peak at Mangla in river Jhelum on 20 th March, 2007 were recorded due to these heavy rains in Kashmir. The torrential rains in Afghanistan and adjoining tribal areas of Pakistan also resulted in high flood peak in river Kabul at Noshera on 21 st March, On 20 th March, the heaviest rainfalls were recorded in 24 hours at Kamra (115.7 mm), Drosh (111.1 mm), Chitral (105.6 mm) and Dir (103.0 mm) while inches snowfall was also recorded at Malam Jabba.

81 APPENDIX V (4) In the provinces of Punjab and NWFP day temperature remained extremely high during the 2 nd week of June recorded. Highest maximum temperatures were recorded at Mianwali (51 C) and Bannu (49.6 C) on 9 th June, A spell of heavy rainfall was observed from dated 15 th to 20 th June, 2007 which brought the day temperature down 10 C to 12 C. The maximum rainfall recorded during the spell at Jhang (153.1 mm), Bahawalnagar (137 mm), Rafique (135 mm), Rawalakot (127.2 mm), Sahiwal (132.6 mm) and Lahore (106.7 mm). Besides, 208 mm rainfall in a day was recorded by Agro Meteorological Observatory, Sargodha on 29 th June, 2007 which is the highest rainfall recorded during the last six years. Cloud bursts caused flash floods in three villages of Swat district in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, on 16 th June 2007 (at around 1300 hours local time), leaving 17 people dead and 60 people injured, mostly children. The three affected villages are located about 20 kilometers north of Mingora, the headquarters of Swat district. Around 1,850 families (13,000 individuals) live in the affected area, out of which an estimated 500 families (4,000 individuals) have been affected by the flash floods. The torrents damaged about 500 houses (partially), as well as livelihood and livestock in the area. Following significant dust storm/gusty winds recorded at Met. Office, Allama Iqbal International Airport, Lahore during May and June, Maximum gust recorded on 9 th May, 2007 (113 km/hr), on 10 th May, 2007 (97 km/hr) and on 3 rd June, 2007 (81 km/hr). Tornado hit Karachi On 23 rd June, 2007, a tornado of weak intensity struck Karachi at about 1700 hrs. When all of sudden wind picked up from 12 Kts to 60 Kts (111 Km/h) speed and it kept blowing with this high speed for about 10 minutes duration. The severe Dust / Thunderstorms accompanied with heavy showers then followed lowering the surface visibility as low as 500m at airport with approaching to zero figure in some parts of city. This hurricane force wind blown apart the huge bill boards across the city, number of Katcha houses and walls collapsed in suburbs causing about 215 casualties as per press and radio reports. Thunderstorm killed more than 80 Over eighty people have been killed in North West Frontier Province (NWFP) on 20 th July, 2007 (Friday night) due to lightning strike and flash floods. Lightning and thunderstorms struck the villages of Nashnamal Jabi and Banaya Kahur in Dir district, triggering flash floods in the area. Nine houses in village Nash Namal, Gar Kohi and Jaba were also washed away by the flood water raising the number of destructed

82 APPENDIX V (4) houses to 20, a mosque and dozens of cattle heads were also washed away in the flood. Rainfall Situation (October, 2007 to March, 2008) The normal Area Weighted (AW) rainfall ( ) for the Post Monsoon Season (October November) is just 10.6 mm which make this season the driest of all seasons in Pakistan. But during the year 2007, the season was even drier than it did normally. The AW rainfall for this season was just 2.2 mm and it was highly below normal (departure from normal was 79.2%). For the winter months from December, 2007 to March, 2008, the rainfall received over Pakistan was also below normal except during the month of January when it was highly above normal. The AW rainfall over Pakistan for various months is shown in the table as given below: Area Weighted Rainfall (AWR) over Pakistan (October 2007 March, 2008) Month Normal AWR (mm) Actual AWR (mm) % departure October November December January February March In aggregate, Pakistan remained in the deficiency of rainfall during the months from October, 2007 to March, 2008 (departure from normal was 37.0%). This deficit in rainfall not only adversely effected the agriculture produce and water resources of the country but it also caused health problems for the people especially to the allergic subjects due to the frequent and prolonged dry spells. Rainfall received during January and February over main cities of the country is given in the table below: Stations January 2008 Rainfall (mm) February 2008 Rainfall (mm) Actual Normal Actual Normal Islamabad Lahore Karachi Traces 10.4 Peshawar Quetta Muzaffarabad Cold Waves (January February, 2008) Sustained low temperature, snow, ice and chilly weather led to severe conditions in Balochistan, mountainous areas of North Western Frontier Province, northern Areas and Kashmir during January February Transport, energy supply, power transmission, agriculture and even people s daily livelihood were badly disrupted due to severe cold weather. Pakistan Meteorological Department disseminated meteorological early warning information for the general public in a timely manner through all mass media, e.g. television, radio, newspapers etc.

83 APPENDIX V (4) The current La Nina event and some unusual General Circulation features over the Eurasian continent are believed to have directly contributed to the widespread low temperatures in the region. These features persisted for days since mid January, 2008, causing sequence of (rare but) severe weather events in the region. Some significant events are as under: Hailstorm drapes Islamabad & Rawalpindi white (10 th January, 2008): Rain spell which was associated with snowfall over hills affected northern and western parts of the country and lasted for six days starting from 6 th January, 2008 and followed by a hailstorm over the twin cities of Islamabad & Rawalpindi at the end and created severe cold conditions. It was the first hailstorm of 2008 winter season taking people by surprise and bringing life to a virtual halt for a considerable while. Hailstorm which occurred on 10 th January, 2008, started at about 1:30 p.m. and lasted for thirty minutes, was also accompanied by thunderstorm. The sunlight was completely blocked turning into night like darkness. Roads of the twin cities were covered with hails which were of significant size. After the hailstorm weather became extremely cold. Significant snowfall was also experienced over the hilly areas. According to the news media, Nathiagali and Thandiani received two feet snowfall while Abbottabad Murree Road, Thandiani Pattan Khurd Road and other link roads in Galiyat have been closed due to snowfall. Heavy snowfall over the hills of Naran, Kaghan, Kala Dhaka and Oogi mountains of district Mansehra were also been reported. Severe Cold wave (5 th 12 th February, 2008): The whole country was hit by severe cold wave from 5 th 12 th February, The most affected areas were north Balochistan, North West Frontier Province, Kashmir and Northern Areas. The lowest temperature of 18 C was recorded at Ziarat, in northern Balochistan, while at another place Khan Mathter Zai where temperature reached as low as 15 C. Due to Severe cold wave conditions over Balochistan and Sindh, the night time temperatures were generally 3 C to 12 C below normal. On 8 th February, 2008, Nawabshah (in Sindh province) recorded its ever lowest temperature of 3.5 C breaking the previous record of 3.0 C which was observed on 8 th February Severe cold conditions and gusty winds also affected routine life in Chaman, Qila Abdullah, Ziarat and Pishin in Balochistan. A number of persons were killed and many were forced to be hospitalized due to cold related sickness. Water supply was

84 APPENDIX V (4) disrupted in most parts of northern and central Balochistan. People faced enormous difficulties due to water scarcity as water supply pipelines were burst owing to the frozen water inside. Heavy Snowfall in Balochistan: Many places in Balochistan received record snowfall. Ziarat, Khan Mathtar Zai, Chaman and Loralai received about 4.5, 3.0, 2.5 and 2 feet of snowfall respectively. Provincial capital Quetta and surrounding areas of the valley also received snowfall. Barkhan and Zhob were the cities which got snowfall even after 20 and 15 years respectively. The Khojak Pass was closed for traffic due to heavy snowfall in the area. At least 16 people were reported dead due to extreme cold weather in the areas which were badly affected. 3. Hydrological Component a. Flood season 2007 There were two significant monsoon spells. First depression affected this area between 24 th 26 th June, 2007, while the second depression hit the area from 3 rd 5 th July, The monsoon depression moved from the Bay of Bengal to India and then to Arabian Sea and affected provinces of Sindh and Balochistan giving heavy rainfall, however, no river flooding was occurred. Flood Forecasting Division of PMD remained vigilant during the Flood Season 2007 and routine flood forecast / advisories were issued for the various government functionaries to minimize the risk to the life and property of the masses. (b) Up gradation & Installation of Radars In order to strengthen the capabilities of flood mitigation in Pakistan, up gradation of the existing radar network is under process. In order to cover the western parts of the country from the possible flood situation, proposal of installation of a Weather Surveillance Radar has been prepared and submitted to the government for approval. 4. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Component National Disaster Management Commission & National Disaster Management Authority: Realizing the importance of disaster risk reduction for sustainable social, economic and environmental development, the Government of Pakistan established a National Disaster Management Commission (NDMC) in 2007 for making disaster risk reduction and preparedness policies, systems and capacities. The commission is headed by the Prime Minister. A National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has also been established to serve as the Secretariat to the NDMC. The NDMC is responsible to ensure coordination for disaster risk reduction management in its broader sense including all hazards approach to mitigate; prevention, preparedness, response and recovery; to oversee the integration of disaster risk management issues

85 APPENDIX V (4) in to sectoral development plans; and to oversee the implementation of this policy through the NDMA. Disaster Management Commissions and Authorities at the Provincial and District levels assist the NDMA in its functioning in disaster prone areas. NMDA which has become fully functional. During the last week of June 2007, the tropical cyclone YEMYIN affected most of the coastal areas along Sindh and Balochistan. Heavy rainfall and associated flash floods also created havoc in the remote areas of the Sindh and Balochistan. Life and property of thousands peoples were affected. NDMA did an excellent job for the recovery and relief operations. Rescue and relief agencies under the supervision of NDMA provided food medicine, tents and essential supplies of other items to the affected areas through helicopters and aeroplanes. 5. Training / Education: Training of Met. Personnel from neighbouring countries at IMG, Karachi It is the first time that Pakistan Meteorological Department has initiated Preliminary Meteorology Course (A BIP_MT Programme) for the duration of six months. PMD s Institute of Meteorology & Geophysics (IMG), Karachi is conducting this course. The course is basically designed to meet the professional needs of WMO Class III and IV meteorological personnel from the neighbouring countries. In order to broaden the base of WMO s Voluntary Cooperation Programme (VCP), Government of Pakistan, under their limited resources, provided financial support in terms of travel, meals and accommodation etc. to the participants. Two Met. personnel from of Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Sri Lanka have been attending this training since 25 th February, Under Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) which was signed between Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and the COMSATS Institute of Information Technology (CIIT) during July 2004 for cooperation and collaboration in research and development activities and human resource development, M.S. Meteorology programme is being conducted at CIIT, Islamabad. PMD is providing Lab. Facilities and supervision of research projects to the students and faculty members of CIIT whereas CIIT has been providing its education / training and research facilities to researchers and employees of PMD. For the capacity building of PMD s scientists, PMD is providing scholarships to the potential scientists for M.S. and M.S leading to Ph.D in the fields of meteorology and related sciences. Presently, one officer is studying for Ph. D at Stockholm University in Sweden on Higher Education Commission Scholarship. While four (05) are doing their MS, two in UK and one each in Canada, China and Thailand. During this year, one scientist of PMD has succeeded to obtain 03 years Ph.D Scholarship in climate change at International Max Planks Research School on Earth System Modeling, Hamburg, Germany. The scientist will join his studies during May, During this year, some more scientists are also expected to proceed abroad for their MS and PhD. Regular sessions of Postgraduate Diploma in Meteorology are also under way with the University of Karachi and in seismology M.Sc. studies at the University of Punjab, Lahore. PMD s nominated students are also amongst the other students at both the institutions.

86 APPENDIX V (4) Ten personnel from Syrian Meteorological Department have completed their training on Special Course in Aviation Meteorology at PMD s Institute of Meteorological Geophysics at Karachi during April, The course is designed for three months duration. Five Naval officers from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Palestine attended 26 th Long Navigation & Direction course at PMD s Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, Karachi during October November, Research: (a) Meteorology: Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) Signed between Ev K 2 CNR Committee and PMD After approval by the Government of Pakistan, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) and Mount Everest Mount K2 National Research Council (Ev K 2 CNR) Committee (A non profit Association), Republic of Italy have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on 1 st March, 2008 at PMD s Headquarters, Islamabad. The MoU aims at strengthening the scientific base for studying climate change impacts by collecting high altitude data in the Karakorum Region of Pakistan. The MoU builds upon the recent successful scientific and cultural collaboration between Italy and Pakistan, further to the celebration of the K2 Golden Jubilee in From PMD s side the MoU was signed by Dr. Qamar uz Zaman Chaudhry, Director General and on behalf of Ev K 2 CNR Committee, Mr. Agostino Da Polenza, President & Legal Representative of Ev K 2 CNR Committee in the presence of senior officials of both the PMD and Ev K 2 CNR Committee. Moreover, MoUs relating to the institutional cooperation of PMD with NASA regarding Aerosol Robotic Network for assessment of air quality, and with USGS for seismological research and up gradation of seismological facilities of PMD are also under process with the government. Wind Mapping of Northern Areas of Pakistan (Phase II): PMD is implementing the project of Wind Mapping of Northern Areas of Pakistan (Phase II) which is financial supported by Ministry of Science & Technology. Besides installation of 21 sites in the northern areas of the country, at 22 more sites, 100 feet towers have been installed and data obtained from these sites are being processed and analyzed regularly at PMD, Islamabad. Wind reports based on one year data for 6 8 stations have been completed.

87 APPENDIX V (4) (b) Hydrology: National Centre for Drought / Environment Monitoring and Early Warning in Pakistan: Under the aforementioned project about 25 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) have already been installed at various parts of the country with special emphasis on drought prone areas of Balochistan and upper Sindh. The process for installation of 10 more AWS is in progress and likely to be completed by the mid of May, Government of Pakistan is funding this project. Latest AWS are purchased from the companies of Italy and Korea. 10 AWS are also planned to be purchased from Italy for broaden the area of observation. Network of ordinary rain gauges is also being spread over the country. 260 have already been installed and about 150 rain gauges are proposed to be installed upto the September, PMD has also launched a separate website for the latest information for the scientific community which can be accessed directly by the same is also accessible through PMD s website A number of Research work / small projects related to forecasting Techniques, Climate Change, Climate modeling, Downscaling for Seasonal and Monthly Prediction, Verification of High resolution Regional Model (HRM), were also carried out by PMD Scientists at the newly established Research & Development (R&D) Division of PMD and they presented their research work at various conferences/ symposium / workshops at national and international levels during In addition to this, Data base development of the Agrometeorology, Synoptic data decoder development, Data bank development for huge volume data are also in progress at Research & Development Division. 8. Publications: Two Issues of Pakistan Journal of Meteorology (Issue No. 7 & 8) have been published by PMD during These issues contain research papers contributed by PMD scientists. In addition to this PMD Scientists also contributed (both as lead authors and co authors) in some research papers which have been published in various international journals of USA, Australia & China.

88 APPENDIX V (5) Country Report of SRI LANKA 1. REVIEW OF THE 2007 TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON (Agenda Item 6) There were no significant cyclonic circulations directly affecting island weather, although depressions brought considerable rain, during the year A disturbance originated in the Arabian Sea by 6 April and took a zigzag path to move across the island to emerge in the Bay of Bengal by 8 April and re entered the island to dissipate by late 11 April. A depression in the Bay of Bengal was active from 14 to 16 April. A low pressure area in the South East Bay of Bengal further deepened into a depression and moved towards Myanmar during 30 April to 06 May. A low level disturbance forming just North of Sri Lanka on 02 May also caused a lot of rains with flooding, injuring 09 people and 17 deaths in the southwest coastal areas. A depression was in the Eastern Bay of Bengal with yet another during May, resulting in very heavy rains, floods and landslides in Sabaragamuwa province with the heaviest 24 hour fall of mm in Anhettigama, and then deepening in to a cyclonic circulation (AKASH) on 13 May. Another low pressure area in the Arabian Sea deepened into a cyclonic system (GONU) and moved towards Oman during 31 May 06 June, land falling on 5th. Very windy conditions prevailed over the island during 19 to 26 June due to a formation of a depression in the West central Bay of Bengal that later crossed Andra Coast on 22nd and continued in the Arabian Sea re strengthening into a Tropical Cyclone (YEMYIN) to continue Northwestward, until crossing Pakistan Coast (land falling on 26th), a very long track for a cyclonic disturbance in the region. Another low pressure area in Northwest Bay of Bengal on 26th June crossed Orissa coast by 29th as a depression and further moved overland to dissipate on the next day. A mild disturbance in the low levels in the vicinity of Sri Lanka by 22 July brought a lot of rains in many parts of the island but there was no cyclonic activity in August in locality with September again becoming disastrous with fairly heavy rains and strong winds in the southwest of the country due to a disturbance that moved from East of Sri Lanka to West on 09th. A low level disturbance in the Bay of Bengal east of Trincomalee on 22 October many part of the country experienced fairly heavy rain. Again by 27th a depression caused strong winds and minor damages in the southwest part of the country. Another spell of heavy rains on 2 and 3 November was due to another mild disturbance that moved from east to west from south Bay of Bengal; minor floods in the southern parts caused hardship to local community. Cyclone SIDR that developed in preliminary stages in the Andaman island area on 9 November moved away from Sri Lanka, but gave fairly widespread rains with thunder and lightning activity along with unusually cold weather. Most anticipated MAHA cultivation seasonal rains came as a relief with a low pressure area that developed in to a deep depression in the Bay of Bengal by 13 December. Many places in the North, East and South were inundated on 17th and afterwards, due to incessant rains. Over all, cyclonic activity in the vicinity of Sri Lanka was relatively low during the year, and the rainfall was about or above normal only in North central and Central provinces and isolated parts of East, Uva and Sabaragamuwa provinces and extreme South. 2. METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT (Agenda Item 8.1) Telecommunications: Data and information exchange with the RTH New Delhi point to point link operated without disruption. Reliability is now excellently improved with the new upgraded GTS system (256kbps) established in June 2007 as an USAID project. It has four sub systems, namely, Communication Server which is installed in Communication Centre, 2 Visualization Terminals that are connected to the National Meteorological Centre and the Duty Forecaster, and a Visualization aero,

89 APPENDIX V (5) established at the Colombo International airport respectively. The information includes meteorological data, weather charts, forecasts and tsunami warnings and SADIS information. The basic design study of the project ( ) for improvement of meteorological disaster information network (both AWS and communication) on a Japanese Government Grant (JICA) was completed in 2007 and the opening of tenders and evaluation commenced in January Synoptic Observations: Data reception from 20 operational stations was very good except during few occasions due to security reasons in some Northern stations. Observations taken and sent in plain language by Sri Lanka Navy at Trincomalee (43419) are coded at NMC. Out of five RBCN stations, a silent station for CLIMAT TEMP data, Colombo (43466), due to non availability of continuous data is pending re activation (no replacement station is available). Nine RBSN stations are operational except for Vavuniya (43415) where night observations are curtailed due to security reasons. Upper air Observations: Radar wind observations in Colombo (43466) were carried out throughout except for few isolated incidents. Sonde observations were not possible due to lack of consumables but these are now available with kind supply by the IMD. Up gradation of the system by the IMD is pending. Pilot balloon observations at Hambantota (43497) and Puttalam (43424) were done satisfactorily at 0000, 0600 and 1200 UTC. Curtailed pilot balloon observations at Trincomalee have been replaced by new observations at Anuradhapura (43421) in January 2008, now continuing successfully. Meteorological Satellites: HRPT receiver of NOAA imageries is still defective and State funds are sought for replacement. FENGYUNCast satellite receiving system funded by WMO/ Government of China, is being installed at present. Ships and Aircraft Reports: Ship Reports are still not received at Colombo radio shore station, as latest INMARSAT capabilities are not present in Colombo but many are received through RTH. AIREPs reception at Airport Meteorological office is poor but whatever received is transmitted to WAFS centres regularly. (a) Improvement of Facilities/ Technical Advancements Automatic telemeter rain gauge station network connecting 5 stations (locally developed) in landslide prone areas are installed in NMC in August Setting up of 20 more telemeter rain gauges, with solar panels at locations vulnerable to landslides, are in progress and near completion. See 5 (b) (i) 8 below. Preliminaries to place an order for a Lightning Detection Network system were over by end of 2007 but held up due to budgetary constraints, this year Part payment was made to WMO trust fund for the procurement of Doppler radar with MOU signed between WMO and the Ministry. An expert visited island in September to find a suitable location for the radar installation. Sites selected and construction work has been started in December 2007 at two new meteorological stations, Polonnaruwa in the North central province and Monaragala in the East, both are paddy cultivation areas. The work is scheduled to be completed in mid Relocation of synoptic observation station Badulla (43479) was accomplished in May 2007 while Mannar (43413) new building construction was completed in June Installation of a disaster management related GIS system under a project funded by USTDA is being implemented at NMC in December Storm surge model, the new version as per WMO/ESCAP training received, is operational as a routine at the NMC.

90 APPENDIX V (5) 3. HYDROLOGICAL COMPONENT (Agenda Item 8.2) The Hydrology Division of the Irrigation Department collects hydrological data that enables quantification of surface water hydrology analyse and archive these data as the only such institution concerned with surface water measurements in the island. At present this division is collecting surface water levels hourly at 69 Hydrometric stations and calculating daily average river discharges from 40 stream gauging stations located at 17 major river basins and it covers over 60% of the total basin area of the island. The Hydrological data thus collected is made available for water resources development, planning and research work. In addition to the above work Hydrological Division collects daily rainfall records from 35 rain gauges, out of which 30 gauges are established in stream gauging stations. This division maintains 10 evaporation pans also to collect daily evaporation records and maintains two weather stations. Improvement of Facilities and Technical Advancements, Flood Forecasting and Warning The following computer packages are used for water resources planning, Hydrological Modelling and data processing. 1. MIKE II Hydraulic Model 2. HEC HMS 3. HEC RAS 4. HEC DSS Vue 5. MIKE BASIN In addition to above, monitoring and measuring high flood levels, discharge measurements during floods and flood mapping of most of the main river basins are carried out by this division. 4. DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS (DPP) COMPONENT (Agenda Item 8.3) In addition to the activities by the SLMD on this topic, Disaster Management Centre (DMC) has related objectives as Hazard Mapping and Risk Assessment, Long term Disaster Mitigation, Preparedness to respond to disasters when they occur and Emergency Operations Management. Senior Meteorologists/Directorate with Electronics Engineer took part in several Special inspection visits to severe lightning damage areas on request, to educate the community on basics and protection methodologies against lightning. In addition, takes part in all related activities by the DMC and the National Disaster Relief Services Centre (fore runner to DMC). A session with the Media personnel pre cyclone season boosted awareness among journalists and general public. Early warnings were issued to DMC and other relevant authorities with lead time to facilitate disaster managers to act expeditiously. SOP for hydro meteorological events are being developed with signal number system introduced, for Cyclones and Tsunami presently. Disaster Events in Brief Spells of rain led to flooding and earth slips in the Southwest, parts of Central and Northcentral and the East during the year, affecting 295,344 persons, reporting injuries and at least 31 deaths. In addition, about 12 deaths and 09 injuries were recorded due to lightning. Strong winds, sometimes associated with tornadoes claimed 04 deaths injuring about 30 people and damaging more than 500 houses.

91 APPENDIX V (5) About 450 persons were displaced when Palliyawatte island in the West coast was inundated by a tidal wave on 16th May evening. The low lying areas of the island went 3 to 4 feet under water. Nearly 150 fisher families had to abandon their homes. Seismic activity was another feature during the period of concern, with a tremor of Richter scale magnitude 5.8 about 1300 km south southeast of South Sri Lanka and a tremor of Richter scale magnitude 5.2 about 300 km East of East Sri Lanka in Bay of Bengal. Several tremors were also felt in the Southern half of Sri Lanka during 20th July 2007, two minor earth tremors were reported in Hambantota District causing minor damages to some houses. (a) DPP Activities by National Disaster Relief Services Centre (NDRSC) Floods claimed the highest proportion of financial allocation in 2007 also (65%, in comparison to ~ 62% in year 2006), with Landslides (9.27%), Droughts (8.18%) and Cyclones (7.25%) being other natural hydro meteorological disasters. Droughts also are becoming a major issue in the country with no proclaimed national authority, but SLMD presently taking over. (i) Financial Assistance for Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Activities 2007 Type of Disaster Allocation (Rs) Percentage of Total Allocation Floods 159,111, % Landslides 22,586, % Droughts 19,921, % Cyclones 17,662, % Civil Conflicts 13,148, % Other Relief Assistance 4,166, % Other Wide spread Disasters 2,098, % Fires 1,390, % Sea Erosion 1,279, % Minor Disasters 933, % Relief Assistance to Families 827, % of Missing Fishermen Accidents 417, % Total Allocation 232,454, % (ii) Programmes for Mitigation of Disasters In order to make farmers aware of efficient use of water, 61 farmer organizations from Divisional Secretary Divisions adversely affected by water scarcity problem were introduced with widespread water supply systems donated by China. Rain water storing tanks, 50 in Trincomalee district and 25 in Anuradhapura district were supplied in A ground well and 5 tube wells to benefit 75 families were constructed in Batticaloa district under Drought Impact Reduction Programme. (iii) Educational and Training Programmes on Disaster Management Educational awareness and training programs were conducted from national level to rural level to include rural level leaders as well. (b) DPP Activities by Disaster Management Centre (DMC)

92 APPENDIX V (5) Staff released from Forces (Army, Navy, Air Force & STF) is manning DM units with senior level Military/ Police officers placed as coordinators in each of the districts, under the supervision of Government Agents/ District Secretaries. In addition to above contract/ secondment staff, temporary service personnel are attached to DMC for early response operations. (i) Programmes of Disaster Management 1. Final draft of the National Policy was submitted and discussed at the National Council for DM at the meeting held on 30th July 2007 and to be finalized. 2 Drafts of the National Disaster Management Plan at different stages have been discussed with stakeholder agencies. 3. Disaster Information System (DisInventer) created with the assistance of UNDP and data collected from 1974 to date with the following agencies involved in National level data validation and additional data collection. Department of Meteorology Epidemiological Unit of the Ministry of Health Department of Social Services Department of Wildlife Conservation Colombo Municipal Council National Building Research Organization Fire Services Department of Colombo Municipal Council However data has been collected for 12 districts including Ampara, Batticaloa and Trincomalee. Eventually DisInventar was officially launched on 25th May 2007 by accessing in to the Internet. Computers for data entry and access were handed over to the nine districts where data validation was completed. 4. Sri Lanka Disaster Resource Network (SLDRN) is a web based resource inventory with controlled access to the database. 289 items, mainly consisting of equipments, human resources and critical supplies are categorized in the system. The data related to these items are collected from the line departments and various organizations at the district level. The data is entered in to the web portal at the district level. 5. Development of Risk Profile in Sri Lanka in which National Building Research Organization, Irrigation Dept., and Coast Conservation Dept., are in the process of developing the hazard maps for Landslide, Flood and Tsunami respectively. 6. National Safety Day was declared by the Government as th of December to focus on disaster reduction awareness. 7. Korean funded Environmental project is to enhance the productivity and long term protection of ecosystems while improving the quality of life of the communities affected by tsunami through community participation in environmental management. Activities will focus on organic farming (home gardens), waste disposal and recycling, establishing linkages with markets for organic produce, and recycled products, tree planting, and rain water harvesting. 8. Ratnapura Landslide Early Warning System is a pilot project started by the UNISDR assistance. Under this project DMC is responsible for installing rain gauges, SLMD/NBRO to collect automated data and finally NBRO to analyse data and issue early warning. See 3 (a) above 9. The initial awareness workshop has been conducted for Central Provincial Disaster Preparedness and Response Plans while PDPRPs and District Disaster Management Preparedness

93 APPENDIX V (5) and Response Plans for seven districts are near in completion and awareness workshops have been conducted in another 15 districts. Development of Divisional DPRPs in 82 divisional secretary divisions has been commenced in 14 districts. 10. Prioritized project proposals for mitigation works in Colombo, Gampaha, Kalutara and Hambantota districts that were severely affected by flood in 2006 and 2007 were commenced and in progress. a. Drought Mitigation activities such as Construction of 88 Rainwater Harvesting tanks and 32 nos underground tanks and several water supply scheme were completed at several Districts. b. Establishment of Natural Barrier by Planting of trees along the South western coastal belt is in progress and some are already completed. c. Studies to mitigate land subsidence and land slides in Central province were undertaken and some are already completed while in others more than 50% is over. (ii) Training and Public Awareness 1. DMC staff has been trained locally (169 persons) and foreign (59 persons). 2. Different target groups for training included staff of Disaster Management Coordinating Units, The District and Divisional Secretaries, The Grama Niladhari, Vulnerable communities, Disaster Management Committee members, Police, the Political hierarchy of the Provincial Councils and Local Government Authorities, Officers of the Line Ministries, Media personnel, School Children, School Teachers, Principals, Hospital staff etc. 3. Staff working in the district disaster management coordinating units (DDMCU) has been given the basic DM training of 3 days duration, funded by UNDP. Nearly 200 personnel trained which included newly recruited civilian District Coordinators, Co coordinating Assistants newly recruited UNVs and military personnel. 4. Pilot project for Training of Trainers (TOT) for school teachers of Kalutara and Galle districts have been planned in collaboration with the Fund for Relief and Development (FRD) for the last quarter. Video clips on tsunami, cyclones, landslides, drought, and floods will be completed during the last quarter for distribution to DDMCs as standard training material. These will be integrated to core disaster management training material as a standard training tool kit by the end of the year with the help of UNDP and BCPR, India. 5. Capacity building at village level includes volunteers affiliated with the Grama Niladharis, Disaster Management Committees. Training covers First Aid, Life Saving, Out bound training. A large number of mock drills for evacuation in response to a tsunami early warning were conducted by the DDMCs for coastal communities. School preparedness planning Ten (10) one day workshops for brainstorming to design the preparedness plan have been conducted for School Principals and School Teachers in districts of Badulla, Kegalle, Kurunagala, Matale, Moneragala and Polonnaruwa. Selected teachers from the schools in the districts are expected to be given a 3 day training and the draft School Preparedness Plan formulated. Thereafter mock drills for selected hazards will be carried out and video documented for replication in all schools. Awareness creation for stakeholders

94 APPENDIX V (5) 1. Disaster Management awareness programmes has been conducted for the Divisional Secretaries for Kalutara, Kegalle, Kurunegala, Matale and Nuwara Eliya districts and, Elected Members of Local Government Authorities of Kurunegala District and, Community Leaders of Anuradhapura district and, Hospital staff of Matale Hospital for hospital preparedness with UNDP funding with UNDP funding. Also for NGO participants in Ampara District in collaboration with the Green Movement and Youth Corp members of Polonnaruwa district with Youth Corp funding. Also for Police Officers in the districts of Kegalle, Matale and Nuwara Eliya and, Mass Media campaigns for the World Disaster Safety Day in October and the National Safety Day in December and School awareness programmes on request. 2. Awareness Creation Material were printed in Sinhalese/Tamil/English with GTZ funding in August 2007 for Tsunami, Landslides, Floods, Cyclones, Lightning and 5 cartoon books for children (Sinhalese and Tamil) developed with Practical Action on Floods, cyclones, landslides, tsunami and sea erosion and some other material with UNDP funding. ICS Training at District Level In November 2007, the US Forest Service Resource Persons completed training 30 Sri Lankan Trainers on Incident Command System in Disaster Management. The Disaster Management Centre selected the districts of Ampara, Kandy, Galle and Hambantota as pilot districts to introduce ICS. Two workshops were organized in Galle and Kandy for officials from these four districts. ICS simulation exercise in Galle: On 27 June 2007 a simulation exercise to respond to a severe flood situation using the Incident command System was carried out in the Galle district. The District Secretariat Galle was supported by the BOI office in Habaraduwa. The National ICS trainers together with the US Forest Service Resource Persons conducted the simulation. (c) DPP Activities by Irrigation Department As one of the most harmful disasters, flood hazard maps for Galu Ganga area are developed using hand held GPS instruments. Under the comprehensive study of disaster Management in Sri Lanka, eight hydrological Observation Centres in Kelani Ganga Basin are provided with Automatic rainfall and water level recorders with telemetry system under the assistance of JICA, in order to obtain real time data for real time flood warnings. The Hydrology Division of the Irrigation Department installed 04 Automatic Rainfall recorders with Loggers, and 04 Bubble in Sensor instruments with data loggers for water level monitoring in Maha Oya, Kelani Gnaga and Attanagalu Oya Basins, under Water Resources Management Project funded by ADB. Hydrology Division of the Irrigation Department operates flood warning system for Kelani Ganga to safeguard the city of Colombo from floods of Kelani Ganga and operates flood alert system for Kalu Ganga, Gin Ganga, Nilwala Ganga, Deduru Oya and Mahaweli Ganga. A study is carried out to upgrade the existing standing orders related to these systems and also to prepare a drainage Management plan for Bolgoda Basin under IHP UNESCO. 5. TRAINING ACTIVITIES (Agenda Item 8.4) Officers from the SLMD attended following conference/seminar/workshop/training events sponsored by the WMO since March Post graduate training in Meteorology, Australia, WMO/VCP, 5 February December 2007

95 APPENDIX V (5) 2. WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, Male, WMO/ESCAP, 25 February March Aviation Meteorology, Beijing, China, WMO, 6 March March Int. Conf on Secure and Sustainable Living: Social and Economic Benefits of Weather, Climate and Water. Madrid, Spain, WMO, 19 March March Expert Meeting on gender management, WMO, 26 March March th WMO Congress, Geneva, Switzerland, WMO 7 May May Training in storm surge forecasting, WMO/ESCAP, 20 August September CLIMSOFT training workshop, Vietnam, WMO, 12 November December Expert meeting on NMHS participation in DRR, Geneva, WMO, 26 November November Training in AWS networking, Hong Kong, China, WMO, 26 November November WMO symposium on PWS: a key to service delivery, Geneva, WMO, 3 December December 2007 SLMD has planned to conduct a series of awareness/ training sessions on disasters and their implications and impacts, in order for observers in regional officers be ready and equip with understanding. Two positions to train Meteorological Observers of SLMD in general meteorology have been generously offered in mid 2007 by the PMD. The date for the commencement of the course is yet to be informed and the Government of Sri Lanka express its sincere thanks to the Government of Pakistan. 6. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES (Agenda Item 8.5) 1. Predicting Storm Surges along Sri Lankan Coasts for 1964, 1978, 1992 Cyclones 2. Studied about onset, withdrawal and fluctuation of Southwest monsoon using Monsoon Index. 3. Predicting monthly rainfall (next month) using Climate Predictability Tool (CPT). 7. NEW JOINT INITIATIVES (Agenda Item. 8.6) Multi hazard early warning towers erected with the trust funds of UNESCAP/Korea Government, are expected to use for dissemination of fisheries forecast from 2008.

96 APPENDIX V (6) Country Report of THAILAND 1. NARRATIVE ACCOUNTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2007 During 1 st November 2006 to 31 st October 2007, Thailand area responsibility, 0 25 N and E, experienced 1 tropical cyclone which developed in the Bay of Bengal and intensified to tropical cyclone AKASH on 14 th May It then moved in a northerly direction and made landfall near Chittagong, Bangladesh later that day. It weakened rapidly as it traveled further inland on 15 th May Generally, AKASH had no effect on Thailand s weather. However there were 2 tropical cyclones originated in the West Pacific and the Gulf of Thailand that moved across southern Thailand to the Andaman Sea. The first was typhoon DURIAN during the end of November 2006 to early December It first made landfall at the Philippines and continued its track towards the South China Sea. It weakened into the tropical storm on 4 th December before moving to the southern tip of Vietnam on 5 th December. This storm further moved into the Gulf of Thailand and gradually weakened to be a tropical depression before making another landfall over southern part of Thailand on 6 th December. It continued to move to the Andaman Sea and finally downgraded into the low pressure cell on 8 th December. DURIAN brought torrential rainfall and flash floods in the upper area of southern Thailand east coast and produced unseasonable rain in some areas of upper Thailand on 6 th December. The second was tropical depression (TD2) developed from the active low pressure cell in the Head Gulf of Thailand on 1 st May 2007 and moved westward into Chumphon province on the same day. It continued to move to the Andaman Sea on the following day and turned northeastward towards Myanmar on 4 th May. This tropical depression moved further inland and downgraded to the low pressure cell before covering the border of Thailand and Lao P.D.R. on 5 th May and finally dissipated on 7 th May. While TD2 moving through southern Thailand, it produced widespread rain with isolated heavy and very heavy rainfall in nationwide. Flash floods were experienced in southern Thailand east coast, Chumphon and Prachuap Khiri Khan Provinces. Moreover, TD2 also produced torrential rainfall across much of upper Thailand throughout the first week of May. The tracks of tropical cyclones are shown in Fig.1.

97 APPENDIX V (6) Cause of Occurring Affected Areas Damages 1. Durian Depression (5 7 November 2006) 2. TD2 (1 2 May 2007) 3. AKASH May 2007) 5 Provinces namely Surat Thani Prachuapkhirikhan,Chumporn, Nakorn Shithumarat and Songkla 5 Provinces, 18 districts, 70 tambons, 264 villages, 29,179 affected, 7,817 families Durian brought heavy windstorm and flooding to the affected areas but no report of casualties. Schools were closed and travel by sea was prohibited About 560,164 US

98 APPENDIX V (6) 2. METEOROLOGICAL COMPONENT a. Improvement of facilities + To enhance data exchanges among the TC Members, the Bangkok Singapore GTS circuit has been upgraded from X.25, speed 9.6Kbps to the TCP/IP Frame Relay with the speed of 16 Kbps (CIR), and Bangkok Phnom Penh GTS circuit has also been connected using VPN via internet. + To strengthen the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System, TMD in collaboration with NOAA will deploy 2 more DART Buoys (Deep ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunami) in after the first DART Buoy was installed in December It will be a major milestone of the Tsunami warning system in the region for all 27 Indian Ocean countries. The detected information and Tsunami warning message will be disseminated via the GTS of TMD for all to access. + Installed a new communication system to improve the stability and speed of International data exchanges, and developed the Tsunami information check and monitoring system from GTS. + To support Tsunami warning system, 9 tidal gauges will be added to the existing 9 tidal gauges deployed in the Andaman Sea along the coastal areas of Southern Thailand. The installations are expected to complete by With the expanding coverage of the tidal gauges, TMD assures that the tidal wave monitoring will contribute beneficial information for the betterment of Tsunami warning in the Indian Ocean region.. + The tropical cyclones and other NWP forecasts from other forecasting centers such as RSMC Tokyo, ECMWF, IMD, KMA, and BOM have been taken in considerations together with TMD s NWP products for more forecasting accuracy, in both medium and long range terms. + TMD has developed a website at Suvarnabhumi Airport to facilitate data users (Air lines) to immediately access necessary data for the Take off Condition, and other data including TAFOR, SIGMET, and METAR. + Three C band Doppler radars have been added to the existing 20 stations in the TMD s Radar Network in order to enhance the radar observation of the country to closely monitor rainfall pattern, cloud movement, and its intensity in the remote areas. + Replacing volunteer rainfall stations in northern Thailand with 110 automatic raingauge stations, apart form the existing 161 automatic stations in the telemetring system of TMD. Data from the automatic stations will be incorporated into the existing telemetering network to strengthen flood monitoring and warning in the critical flood risk areas of the country. Moreover, additional 820 stations will be incorporated into TMD s automatic raingauge network by Each TMD meteorological station will be equipped with an automatic station, thus there will be additional 87 automatic stations in TMD meteorological observation network by 2008.

99 APPENDIX V (6) + The Vaisala Model RP20 will replace the Vaisala s retired model at 4 upper air stations, the installations are expected to complete in The improvement of observation for aviation by the deployment of 3 Automatic Weather Observation System (AWOS) at 3 local airports of the country. +To give warning messages to people promptly, 79 Disaster Warning Towers have been constructed in 6 provinces directly affected by the Tsunami as a result of the tragedies due to the 26 December 2004 Tsunami Event. However, to be able to cost effectively use and cover all types of natural disasters, including torrential rain, flash floods, and landslide etc. apart from Tsunami and earthquake, TMD has constructed 48 more Warning Towers in the disasters prone areas of the country. Totally there are 127 multi hazard Warning Towers in National Warning System of Thailand which will play the major role to deliver disaster warning to public more timely, and 144 more towers will be constructed by b. Technical Advancement + The Virtual Wave 3D has been developed and implemented to incorporated oceanic wave related data and displayed wave/storm surge forecast dimensionly. + Newly designed main website of TMD, in both Thai language and English, has been improved to incorporated more information of tropical cyclones, including tracks, radar observations, satellite imageries and NWP products to be more user friendly warning tool. 3. HYDROLOGICAL COMPONENT Hydrological Activities on November 2006 October 2007 Rainfall accumulation of Thailand from January 1, 2006 to November 5, 2006 was greater than the long period average record 11 %, especially to the northern part of Thailand the accumulated rainfall was greater than the average 29 %. Normally the month of November is the end period of heavy rainfall under North Eastern Monsoon for the northern, central, eastern and the western part of the country. But due to the previous peak flood occurred during October 2006,some flooded area were still in Yom and Nan river basin for the upper Chao Phraya River Basin such in Phitsanuklok, Sukhothai, Phichit and U Thai Thani province with flood depth m.the flooded area for Lower Chao Phraya River Basin covered Singhaburi, Angthong, Ayuthaya, Pathumthani, Nonthaburi, Nakhonpathom, Suphranburi province and 4 regions of Bangkok Metropolitan with the maximum peak discharge at station C.2 Nakhonsawan province(confluence of Ping, Wang,Yom and Nan River Basin) was 3,220 cms.(as its normal maximum capacity) Flood management, Royal Irrigation Department installed 383 large pumps for flood depth reduction and also diverted the excess flood volume to the west and east side of Chao Phraya River mcm./day and mcm./day respectively and cooperated with the operation the Lad Pho Project (Royal Project) near the river mouth increased flood drain volume mcm./day and estimated draining schedule will be completed by the end of December 2006 and completed as the plan.

100 APPENDIX V (6) During November 2006 October 2007 there were many typhoons (TY), tropical storms (TS), tropical cyclone (TC) and depressions track passed near by the country, effective and non effective for rainfall increasing as follow : TY CIMARON, November 1 6, 2006 (no direct effected to Thailand) TS CHEBI, November 14 15, 2006 (increased heavy rainfall to Thailand) TY DURIAN, December 3 5, 2006 (no direct effect to Thailand) Depression, May 3 4, 2007 at Andaman Sea (increased heavy rainfall to Thailand) TY YUTU, May 18 20, 2007 near Philippines (no direct effect to Thailand) Low pressure trough, May 30 June 21, 2007 created heavy rainfall through Norther Eastern part of the country TC 03B, June 25 30, 2007 (create heavy rainfall to the west of the southern of the country) Flood monitoring, Royal Irrigation Department assigned one center Water Watch and Monitoring System for Warning Center to collect data, process, analysis and report to the executive, TV, radio, newspaper, the governor and related government and public sector for water disaster forecast, alert and warning. a. Improvement of facilities: + The Royal Irrigation Department (RID) installed the upper Chao Phraya telemetering projects in the Chao Phraya river basin to link with the lower part that started from Ayuthaya province down to the gulf of Thailand. The real time in situ and remotely sensed data collection is on hourly basis. + Department of Water Resources (DWR) has cooperation with Mekong River Commission Secretariat (MRCS) and other Mekong River Country (Lao s PDR, Cambodia and Vietnam) to improve the hydro meteorological monitoring network In Mekong Mainstream under the Appropriate Hydrological Network Improvement Project (AHNIP), Basin development plan, Water utilization program, Environment program, Flood mitigation management program and drought management program, Mekong HYCOS and start up integrated knowledge management program. + Department of Water Resources as the National Committee of Thailand for the International Hydrology Program (IHP) held the 14 th meeting of Regional Steering Committee at Bangkok, Thailand. Moreover, we support the proposal framework for IHP VII and prepare the Catalog River of Bangpakong basin. Some specific highlighted issues are as follows; Methodologies for integrated river basin management. Promotion of public awareness rising on water management. Institutional development and networking for WET. Guidelines on the sustainable and integrated water management with due consideration to public s living quality and participation. Increasing the available sources water by improving both existing Natural and man made sources. Flood and drought management b. Technical Advancement: + The small telemetering system (not included existing large telemetering system) especially for rainfall data collection in ungauged area were equipped and moved

101 APPENDIX V (6) those stations along the pressure trough for more accurate rainfall data. The use of weather radar, satellite imageries from web site near real time were one of the most important tool for flood management, preparednes, prevention, rehabilitation and planning such as Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMap), Global Flood Alert System (GFAS), Sentinel Asia Disaster Management, flood monitoring and Asia Pacific Space Agency Forum (APRSAF). + For 13 existing large scale telemetering system,this year 2008 there is some change of the policy, firstly for system maintenance due to less capacity building. Royal Irrigation Department has decided to let the consultant firm take in charge on maintenance the system and provide the data as RID requested. Secondly, RID.has the plan to select only one of the best suitable model for flood work which the operators have more experience and skillation to solve the problem of different model and operator transfering. + At this moment, RID disseminated the forecasted results and warning to the concerned agency via internet, radios and televisions. + At present, Department of Water Resources has cooperation with Mekong River Commission Secretariat in the hydro meteorological monitoring network in Mekong Mainstream and linkage hydrological data (automatic water level). + RID expanded area of coverage in case of Chao Phraya river basin by installing the upper Chao Phraya telemetering system to strengthen the forecasting results in Chao Phraya river basin which is the largest basin in Thailand. + Department of Water Resources (DWR) has developed and improved in the hydrological and meteorological monitoring network in Bangpakong river basin and Prachup Khirikhan, located at Eastern of Thailand for water resource management, including flood forecasting and management. Moreover, telemetering hydrometeorological stations was established in Mun and Chi river basin for flood forecasting and management. This project aimed to set up the hydrometeorological stations network and early warning system. + Department of Water Resources (DWR) has been setting up Early Warning System since At present, it continues to develop and set up a flood and landslide warning system in mountain and upland area cover 53 risky villages, dealing with system alerts activated heavy rainfall and rising of river levels tomonitor at appropriated site. Early warning signal were sent in advance to subscribers and communities in real time of the impact of disasters, provided time for people to take response actions. + Improving the hydrological database system for water resources management, planning, construction, and maintenance of hydraulic structures and for scientific research, called HYDRO WEBBASE which established at Department of Water Resources (DWR) and continued for more effectives useful. + Providing E Service Hydrological data, called IS Hydro, via Department of Water Resources website. + Department of Water Resources (DWR) set up a master national plan of Flood mitigation for short and long term. + Exchange of the RID s in situ and remotely sensed data and uses can be easily

102 APPENDIX V (6) done in the future via the internet. The information gains during this period will improve forecasted results. + The interaction among members will be increased which will improve the hydrological products of RID to meet our requirement. The integrated meteorological products and services are essential in better flood forecasting. + At present, Department of Water Resources has cooperation with Mekong River Commission Secretariat in the hydro meteorological monitoring network in Mekong Mainstream and linkage hydrological data (automatic water level). The forecasted results in the risky area from early warning system and water crisis will be transmitted to the related/concerned department and the outside concerned departments via internet, SMS, television, radio, mobile telephone and facsimile by Water Crisis Prevention Center, Department of Water Resources. c. Advancement on Unit Hydrograph derivation + For Unit Hydrograph, the year 2006 Hydrology Division, Royal Irrigation Department (RID) had derived program for the Unit Hydrograph for all 25 main river basins of the country based on Snyder and Nash Model.The basic coefficience a, b, c and d for those watersheds are provided to calculate : time to peak(tp), peak discharge(qp), time duration(tr) by inputting the data: (S)slope, (A) drainage area sq.km., (L) length of the main stream from the outlet to the upstream divide km. and (Lc) distance from the outlet to a point on the stream nearest to the centroid of the watershedkm. For Nash Unit Hydrograph Distribution, calculation the gramma n, k are set. This program is easy to use and useful for water management after the rain storm event and has introduced the applied program to all the office of regional irrigation for flood estimation and forecasting. 4. DISASTER PREVENTION AND PREPAREDNESS (DPP) COMPONENT a. DPP Activities: The 2007 key projects of disaster management are as follows: + The continual CBDRM Approach Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation DDPM has continually implemented project of Community Based Disaster Risk Management Project (CBDRM) since The objectives are to 1) prepare community in risk areas to enable in disaster management by themselves, 2) create disaster prevention and mitigation network in the village/community level and 3) set up village working group responsible on disaster management in the village. More than 1,676 in risk communities have been trained on CBDRM courses. Furthermore, DDPM has collaborated with the international organizations and related governmental bodies to launch these following CBDRM projects: The Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC) coordinated with the Ministry of Education conducted the Education for Disaster Preparedness in Primary School Project in 2 pilot schools in Phang Nga. German by GTZ has Implemented CBDRM in 2 pilot areas. Two types of disaster were selected to achieve the project goals: tsunami disaster in Mooban (village) Taplamu, Phang Nga province and flood disaster in Mooban Tung Kraborg (village), Trad province.

103 APPENDIX V (6) DDPM has cooperated with JICA and government agencies concerned to enhance the disaster management capacity of the government staffs and risk community members. The 3 project areas focus on flood in Chumporn province, tsunami in Phuket province and landslide in Mae Hong Son province. + OTOS Project DDPM has recognized the immediate need to establish a range of search and rescue capacities at national, provincial and the most importantly in local levels. Thus, DDPM has launched the One tambon One Search and Rescue Team (OTOS) Programme which will resulted in the establishment, training and long term maintenance of specially trained search and rescue team in every tambon community. DDPM, has incorporated various government agencies and NGO such as Department of Local Administration, Health Insurance Office, Office of Health Promotion and Support Fund, and Thai Red Cross, to achieve the following OTOS objectives; To ensure the safety of life, and the rapid and efficient search and rescue operation, To establish efficient search and rescue team at every provinces, district and tambon in the country, To enhance capacity and efficient search and rescue team through technical training and drilling, To provide first aid treatment and rapid transfer to the appropriate medical establishment. OTOS programme has been expected to complete in Upon the completion, there will be a SAR team (10 members) based in each tambon (7,255 tambons) throughout the country. + The Flashflood and Mudslide Warning Programme The Royal Thai Government has realized that natural disaster of flashflood and mudslide is becoming Thailand s current threatening hazards. In this regard, DDPM has collaborated with Department of Provincial Administration, Department of Local Administration, the Meteorological Department, Mineral Resources, National Park, Wildlife and Plant Conservation Department and National Disaster Warning Center to implement the project called Mr. Disaster Warning from 2006 to This course aims at creating disaster warning network in flashflood and mudslide prone village. Mr. Disaster Warning is the village volunteer who has been selected and trained to function as a vigilant, a forewarner and a coordinator. As the vigilant, he will keep the close watch on the development of the potential flood and mudslide and check the level of rainwater in the simple rain gauge installed in his village. As the forewarner, he will report the village headman if there is any indication that these will be an emergency, then the headman will signed the manual siren to warn the villagers to evacuate to the safe area. As the coordinator, functions as the contact person or the coordinators between his community and the agencies concerned to arrange the warning system and evacuation drill in his village. Since the inception of the programme, approximately 6,455 villagers were trained and assigned to be Mr. Disaster Warning. + Civil Defense Volunteers (CDVs) CDVs play an important role in disaster management in Thailand. Authorized by the Civil Defense Act 1979 and MOI s Civil Defense Regulations

104 APPENDIX V (6) 2005, Local governments can recruit local residents with age over 18 years to have 5 days trainings and then grant them the CDV status. Roles of CDVs can be found in disaster response, relief, recovery, prevention, mitigation and preparedness. In other words, all activities in disaster management have been involved by the volunteers. CDVs have been also engaged in general activities organized by government agencies at national, provincial and local level. Normally, CDVs are not paid by the governments. They work on a voluntary basis. At present, there are around 835,000 CDVs in the country (about 1.3% of the total population). But due to the increase in number, scale and complexity of disaster, MOI has planed to increase the number of CDV to 2 millions (2% of the population) within the year TRAINING ACTIVITIES a. Meteorology During 1 October September 2007, the staffs of the TMD had opportunities to participate in the overseas training courses as shown below : Table 1: The overseas training courses which the staffs of the TMD had joined No. Course Title (s) Duration Country No. of participant (s) 1 Training Course on Nowcasting of 11 Oct. 21 Oct. 06 China 1 Serious Convection 2 Training Course on 23 Oct. 3 Nov. 06 China 1 Agrometeorological Information Services 3 Training Course on Numerical 30 Oct. 3 Nov.06 Korea 2 Weather Prediction Products (ASEAN ROK) 4 Training on Seasonal Climate 30 Oct. 27 Nov. 06 USA 1 Information for Climate Risk Management 5 Training Course on The Use and 31 Oct. 3 Nov. 06 Hong Kong 1 Interpretation of City specific Numerical Weather Prediction Products 6 Training Course on Emergency 5 Nov. 18 Nov.06 Japan 1 Network Implementation Technology 7 Regional Training Workshop on 4 Dec. 7 Dec.06 Vietnam 1 Water Affairs 8 Training Course on Integrated 4 Dec. 22 Dec. 06 Israel 1 Approach and Sustainable Management of Adverse Climate Changes Drought and Desertidiation 9 The RANET Training Course 20 Mar. 23 Mar.07 Indonesia 1 Technology for Operator 10 Training Course on Severe 1 Apr. 12 Apr.07 China 1 Convective Storm Nowcasting 11 Training on Third Session of the 4 Apr. 6 Apr. 07 China 1 Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring Assessment and Prediction for Asia 12 Training Course on Forecaster 14 Apr. 22 Jul. 07 UK 1

105 APPENDIX V (6) Foundation 13 Training Course on Satellite and Radar Meteorology 14 Training Course on Seismology, Seismic Data Analysis, Hazard Assessment and Risk Mitigation 15 Training Course on Coastal Zone Natural Disaster Prevention & Warning 16 Training Course on Agrometeorological Services for Sustainable Agriculture 17 Attachment training on Quality Management System 28 Apr. 27 May. 07 China 1 5 Aug. 8 Sep.07 Germany 1 25 Jul. 8 Aug.07 China 1 27 Aug. 7 Sep.07 China Sep. 07 China 2 b. Hydrology + RID s training programs are regularly scheduled only to the concern local staff and will be provided to other in the future. + DWR has 3 overseas training activities of which cooperated with MRCS as follows; 1. Training in HYMOS software in August, 2007 at Cambodia. 2. Training program Mike 11 for modeler in July September, 2007, Thailand and Laos. 3. Training in decision support framework in Mae Kok basin and Nam Songkhram basin, June 25 29, 2007, Thailand and Laos. + The training in flood forecasting will be carried out in Beijing, China this year. The outcome will be fruitful to those participants who join the programme. The result will be reported in next year. + For DWR, there are 7 training activities as follows; c. DPP 1. Training in research training for new researcher, August 30 31, 2007, Bangkok. 2. Training in decision support framework in Mae Kok basin and Nam Songkhram basin, June 25 29, 2007, Bangkok. 3. Training in applied GIS for water resources management, June 25 26, 2007, Bangkok. 4. Train the trainer in the Integrated Water Resources Management in June, Training in hydrology and applied hydrology, May 14 18, 2007, Kanchanaburi Province. 6. Training in telemetry and MIKE II model, January 22 26, 2007, Bangkok. 7. Training in Hydro database, January 2207, Bangkok

106 APPENDIX V (6) + DDPM established Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Academy (DPMA) in October 2004 to be the national institution for equipping the personnel in charge of disaster management areas. Nowadays DPMA has extended to 6 campuses in upcountry. The main academy curricula consist of the Fire Fighting, Building Collapse (Search and Rescue), Hazmat Emergency Management, Civil Defence Volunteer and Disaster Management. Moreover, DPMA cooperate with Japanese, German and etc. experts to develop the curricula. + DDPM has promoted the officials to attend the training courses, workshops, meetings, seminars and exercises in various countries to improve their disaster management capacities. After tsunami occurrence, DDPM staffs have been supported the fund by 2006 from the Royal Thai Government to train and study in disaster management fields in foreign countries. 6. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES a. Meteorology + In 2007, a number of research topics have been done by TMD staff to support the improvement of severe weather and meteorological related forecasting. The researches range from monsoonal study, heavy rain, tropical cyclone to Tsunami, and drought issues, including: 1. Thailand Monsoon Onset Estimation Using MM5 Model, 2. Meteorological indicators for Heavy Rainfall Forecast: Case study of June 2006 Heavy rainfall in the North and Northeast of Thailand, 3. Application of GIS for Tropical Storm induced Windstorm Assessment over Thailand, 4. The correlation between Run up of Tsunami and Coastal Characteristics, 5. A Study of Meteorological Drought Index Model for Drought Areas in Northeastern Thailand. b. Hydrology + Department of Water Resources had been done 7 researches as listed belows: 1. The Delineation of River Basin Boundaries (25 Major river basins including 254 sub river basins). 2. Integrated Water Resources Management:Case study in lower Loei basin. 3. NDVI (Normalize Differential Vegetable Index) for drought forecasting. 4. API application in flash flood and landslide. 5. Application of local wisdom in water resources management. 6. The development of participatory process to empower local community in water resources management: Case study in Mun basin. 7. The study in the risk factors and community livelihood in flood and landslide hazard area: Case study in upper Ping river basin.

107 APPENDIX V (6) c. DPP + DDPM in conjunction with Vietnam has planned to implement a co research program on GIS for flood area management.

108 APPENDIX VI Multi hazard Early Warning System Concept Proposal on Integrated Hazard Awareness Display WORK PLAN OF PTC WORKING GROUP ON DPP Prepared by M C Wong Assistant Director, Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China and concurrently Vice Chair of UNESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Working Group on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness in cooperation with Ti Le Huu, UNESCAP for Panel on Tropical Cyclones Working Group on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness 35 th Session, held in Manama, Bahrain, 5 9 May Introduction Early warning system (EWS) is one of the most effective tools available to manage risk and reduce the toll of natural disasters, as highlighted in one of the five priority areas of the Hyogo Framework for Action : the need for identifying, assessing and monitoring disaster risks and enhancing early warnings as a critical component (of disaster risk reduction). The primary objective of an early warning system is to empower individuals and communities to respond to protect lives and property. An effective warning system is more than just a set of technical definitions of warning status and associated criteria. It should convey essential and meaningful information relevant to the community. It encompasses the means to communicate such information to the intended audience. It should be able to trigger established contingency measures within the government and draw orderly collective responses of the public to minimize loss of lives and damage to property. To achieve the best result, early warning systems should be integrated into disaster risk management effectively. In the context of hydro meteorological hazards, several studies have been conducted to strengthen EWS services. The findings and experiences compiled by the first author based on the previous studies and actual operations for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) are shown in Annex 1, which recommend that NMHSs should consciously formulate strategies in the design, presentation, operation, dissemination and communication of warnings. To this end, operational scientists and meteorologists are faced with the challenges on the following areas: (i) connecting with stakeholders, (ii) applying advances in science, (iii) crossing the last mile, (iv) stimulating anticipated action, and (v) getting the science through as elaborated in Annex 1. In the above context, a multi hazard early warning system would need to effectively serve socioeconomic development process. For this reason, a new mechanism on multi hazard early warnings was recommended for regional cooperation on integrating early warning systems into socio economic development process of the region. This proposed mechanism is proposed to be built on the premises of good services on early warning systems, experiences of the work carried out under the auspices of WMO and most importantly the latest developments in the work of the WMO/UNESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones Working Group on Disaster Prevention and Preparedness to enhance confidence of EWS service users on the one hand, to facilitate the transfer of know how on early warnings to less developed countries, and increase visibility of EWS services for more effective integration into socio economic development process of the region.

109 APPENDIX VI 2. Concept on Integration of EWS into the Socio economic Development Process Warning communication can be significantly enhanced when consistent warning information is received from multiple credible sources. Furthermore, the potential for individuals to respond appropriately would greatly increase if they are provided with information to enable them to assess their own level of risk highlighting what life saving or property saving actions to take. In this respect, the WMO started formal operation of the Severe Weather Information Centre (SWIC) in March 2005 providing access to the official observations on severe weather and warnings on tropical cyclones issued by National Meteorological & Hydrological Services (NMHS). The SWIC is an internetportal (Fig. 1) ( operated by Hong Kong, China on behalf of the WMO and currently comprises 20 participating Members of WMO. The information on tropical cyclones provided by SWIC includes advisories issued by WMO s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMC), Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC) and official warnings issued by NMHSs for their respective countries or regions. At present only forecasts/warnings issued by organizations with specific responsibility for a region or country are presented and no effort is attempted to harmonize the different forecasts/warnings. Nevertheless, the SWIC serves the role of a trusted source of official warnings/forecasts and is an important step towards a more integrated multi hazard warning system. Furthermore, it provides a very enabling tool to raise the awareness of the public to approaching hazards. At the national level, Department of Disaster Mitigation and Prevention of Thailand has started the process of building a system of natural risk awareness programme aiming at providing users with relevant information on major natural hazards in all the provinces of Thailand. Once completed, this national system could be easily expanded to cover other Members of the Panel. In addition, as Thailand is a member of the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, this national system could be also linked to other national systems of the Typhoon Committee Members. At the international level, a similar project is the European Multiservice Meteorological Risk Awareness (EMMA) programme. EMMA produces operational vigilance charts accessible through Internet and understandable throughout Europe (Fig. 2). The vigilance chart is a graphical information system on phenomena such as strong winds, heavy rains, fog, forest fires risks, avalanche risks, storm surges, etc. It is to be used not only by weather forecasters, but also by general public and decision makers, easily accessible, in a form readily understood at a glance and offering the possibility to access more detailed information from the existing national warning procedures, as well as to risk qualification and behaviour information. The operational implementation of the project is expected by end of 2006 where EMMA products will be available to the public. This following outlines a potential conceptual design of an Integrated Hazard Awareness Display (IHAD) for the Indian Ocean region modelled after the SWIC and EMMA programme. The IHAD could aim at providing multi hazard information via the internet as a means to exchange and publicize regional observations and warnings for the promotion of regional cooperation and public awareness on natural hazards. 3. IHAD Conceptual Design Participating Members could jointly set up a regional data centre to collect multi hazards information and warnings (such as tsunami, flood, rainstorm, tropical cyclones, etc.) in real time via various communication means to serve as inputs to IHAD (Fig. 3). The IHAD could comprise a 3 tier system which may be developed in phases. The first tier would emphasize the use of observation data as a starting point in the process of building awareness of potential hazard threats. Official observations of hazards and the level

110 APPENDIX VI of their seriousness could be collected from relevant authorities and displayed via colour coded manner on a common portal to reflect their risk level. Users, including members of the public, by coming to the portal, begin the process of identifying and assessing the present threat of potential hazards. More complete and forecast information would be displayed in the second tier of IHAD. Data collected would then be used to produce operational vigilance charts accessible through the internet and understandable throughout the region. The third tier would offer access to detailed warning information from participating national warning centres. Participating Members may also gain direct access to the complete data set collected to enable development of their own national multi hazard early warning system or other local applications. The Multi hazard Data Centre could be hosted by one of the participating member countries. An officer from the hosting country might serve as the co ordinator for administrative convenience to oversee the design, development and implementation of the Data Centre and the daily operation of the web site. Multi hazard information and warnings may be exchanged via , ftp and web form. Data content may be packaged in the form of plain text message or in XML to facilitate exchange. The former has advantage in simplicity but the latter is preferred as better data integrity could be ensured. A pilot project could first be launched as a demonstration of the IHAD concept. This may consist of a system for a few major hazards to include initially observations on sea level, heavy rain and tropical cyclone winds as well as warnings on tsunami, rainstorm and tropical cyclone. A task force could be set up as part of the PTC Working Group on DPP to facilitate project implementation. 4. Draft Work Plan In order to enable the Working Group to function smoothly, it will be necessary to mobilize resources from various donors, including the ESCAP Multi donor Voluntary Trust Fund on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangements in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. On that basis, it is proposed that the Work Plan will include the following: 1. Sharing of the current plan of the Department of Disaster Mitigation and Prevention (DDMP) with other Members of PTC for coordination and collaboration 15 July Establishment of a task force on IHAD 15 July Preparation of a project proposal for submission to donors, including the ESCAP Multi donor Voluntary Trust Fund on Tsunami Early Warning Arrangements in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia by TSU 5 Aug First design of the IHAD for sharing with other members of the PTC WG DPP 31 Aug Soft launching of IHAD 31 Oct Workshop on IHAD, if fund is available 15 Nov Preparation of report of PTC WG DPP for subsequent submission to PTC Dec 2008

111 APPENDIX VI Figure 1. Sample Page from the Severe Weather Information Centre displaying global distribution of tropical cyclones

112 APPENDIX VI Fig. 2 Sample page from the European Multi service Meteorological Risk Awareness (EMMA) web site displaying multi hazard risk status of Europe. Figure 3 Example of IHAD data flow

113 APPENDIX VI ANNEX 1. Challenges on the Integration of EWS into Disaster Risk Management M C Wong Assistant Director, Hong Kong Observatory Hong Kong, China Introduction Early warning system (EWS) is one of the most effective tools available to manage risk and reduce the toll of natural disasters. Of the five priority areas identified by The Hyogo Framework for Action which was adopted last year (January 2005) at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction (Kobe, Japan) to reduce disaster risk, the need for identifying, assessing and monitoring disaster risks and enhancing early warnings was highlighted as a critical component (of disaster risk reduction). The primary objective of an early warning system is to empower individuals and communities to respond to protect lives and property. An effective warning system is more than just a set of technical definitions of warning status and associated criteria. It should convey essential and meaningful information relevant to the community. It encompasses the means to communicate such information to the intended audience. It should be able to trigger established contingency measures within the government and draw orderly collective responses of the public to minimize loss of lives and damage to property. To achieve the best result, early warning systems should be integrated into disaster risk management effectively. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) should therefore consciously formulate strategies in the design, presentation, operation, dissemination and communication of warnings. To this end, operational scientists and meteorologists are faced with the challenges described below. 1. Connecting with stakeholders Success of early warning rests on information from all sides being brought together and communicated to relevant parties in a timely and useful way for decision making. Understanding the decision making process and needs for specific application is critical. The challenge here is mitigating the disconnect between meteorologists/operational scientists and decision makers. It is important to recognize that what is of interest to meteorologists may not be of equal interest to disaster risk managers. The information needs have to be clearly defined from the perspective of the stakeholders rather than the meteorological/scientific angle. Stakeholders need to be consulted as partners in the design and refinement of high impact hazard warning systems, and on the larger scale, the risk management plan. Stakeholders include the public, other national government agencies, emergency management agencies, local authorities, non government organizations, the media, social scientists, national and regional infrastructure authorities, academia, etc. Different sectors of the community have different natures of business and levels of tolerance of risks associated with natural hazards. Involving stakeholders in developing and enhancing the end to end early warning system has many benefits, such as: (i) improved presentation, structure, and wording of the warnings themselves; (ii) more effective communication of the risks and actions to take in response to high impact

114 APPENDIX VI weather; (iii) better understanding of how, and how often, stakeholders want to receive warnings; (iv) increased sense of ownership, and therefore, credibility in the warning system; and (v) smoother buying in of the warning system. It is thus important for NMHSs to adopt a culture of working more closely with stakeholders to define the needs of the warning systems from the perspective of users. As an example, consider the implementation of the EWS for natural disasters in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Observatory, who is responsible for designing and operating the EWS, makes consultation with stakeholders on their expected use of the warning early in the design stage to define the user requirements. When the initial design of the warning (including the warning message, warning symbols and precautionary announcements) has been completed, user consultation is again made. Product consultation is often conducted with members of a special interest group, the Friends of the Observatory, comprising members of the public. The media is also consulted to provide useful feedbacks. When the design of the warning is finalized, further consultation with other emergency relief personnel to align the meteorological warning mechanism with the response plans of key response departments are conducted to ensure smooth and coordinated response to the warning. To cater for the changes in user requirements, the Observatory conducts regular review of the warning system and services, usually on an annual basis. The review process includes communication and consultation processes with various stakeholders. Views and comments from the public are also solicited through systematic and regular public opinion surveys, press columns, radio and TV interviews, incoming s, discussion forums on amateur weather websites and gatherings of weather interest groups. User feedbacks from other relevant government departments and key sectors and the media can also be obtained through regular liaison meetings. These meetings are effective in collecting users views and comments and conveying messages to users, enhancing communications between the Observatory and key stakeholders. Any changes or improvements made in response to users feedbacks are made known to the users, reflecting that the Observatory values their comments and will make efforts to meet their needs, thereby enhancing her image. Continual review and enhancement of a warning system, involving the stakeholders, will ensure that stakeholders expectations are met in changing times and the warning system will keep up with the pace of the society it serves. 2. Applying advances in science An effective warning system should have the following components: (a) good observations, (b) reliable forecasts, and (c) timely incorporation of these observations and forecasts in the warnings. One of the great achievements of meteorology during the 20th century has been the increased ability of NMHSs, through improved warning systems, to provide much more reliable information for effective protection of life and property from natural hazards. With continuing scientific and technological developments, forecasters will be able to warn at longer lead times and greater accuracy regarding the where, when and magnitude of an impending natural hazard. Conventional observational systems are mainly ground based in situ measurement for a single point. Such systems are often costly to operate and, for remote areas in particular, logistically difficult to maintain. Increasingly, the emphasis is shifting towards remote sensing techniques utilizing sophisticated radars and sensors, especially satellite borne systems that can cover a wide region of the globe. The challenge here is how to extract relevant critical information from the ever growing volume of observations, analyses and

115 APPENDIX VI prognoses and coming up with a coherent picture of the threat. This is of particular relevance to the warning of volatile mesoscale weather processes such as rainstorms where the forecast lead time is very short., ranging from state of the art global NWP models to nowcasting systems operated by local weather offices. Recognizing such operational reality, forecast system developers in the Hong Kong Observatory have made an effort to come up with purposely designed tools for forecasters and decision makers. The approach is to translate all observations, guidance and numerical prognoses into instantly digestible information that can be directly associated with decision making criteria. From the Observatory s nowcasting system SWIRLS (Short range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems), tailormade rainfall distribution maps are generated for the next three hours based on 6 minute updated radar images and 5 minute updated surface raingauge data. For example, the forecast accumulated rainfall maps for the coming hour (Figure A.1) and the coming two hours gives forecasters a useful objective reference in operating the rainstorm warning system; whereas quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) on the expected amount in the next three hours, in conjunction with the running 21 hour total, is a surprisingly effective tool for assessing the likelihood of landslip warnings. Another example is the development and implementation of a decision support tool in the Observatory named the Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System (TIPS). The system ingests objective forecast storm tracks based on numerical weather prediction model outputs as well as the subjective forecast issued by official tropical cyclone warning centres, generates an ensemble forecast track and presents the integrated information graphically for reference. Once the forecaster decides on the working track, the TIPS estimates the timing as well as the probability of occurrence of high winds in Hong Kong and assess the need for issuance of tropical cyclone warnings to the public (Figure A.2). The system has greatly enhanced the efficiency of forecasters in the operation of tropical cyclone warnings in Hong Kong. Such tools with the capability to assimilate the wealth of observation data, analyses and numerical products into meaningful parameters will help towards the understanding and utilization of available information by forecasters to facilitate decision making based upon good solid science. 3. Crossing the last mile No matter what technology is used to generate a disaster warning and how the warning is transmitted from the originating center to users, the warning is useless unless it reaches the affected individuals in a timely manner. The challenge here is how to cross the last mile effectively to get timely and appropriate alerts to everyone who needs them. It must not only reach the population in risk, it has to be in a language that they understand and from a source they trust. It is essential for NMHSs to constantly and proactively look for opportunities to improve the delivery processes of warnings to the public and special clients, harnessing the improvement in forecasting techniques, as well as advancement in information technology (IT). Rapid development in IT, in particular, enables fast and efficient dissemination of warning messages through multiple channels and creates opportunities for more timely forecast and warning services. In this information age, it is inevitable and logical that the media should be actively engaged as key partners in the process of triggering rational public response before, during and after the event. The first priority is, of course, the provision of critical warning messages and information for the media; denying the media reliable information often only leads to wild speculations and counter productive panic within the community. But so far, the partnership is often seen in the form of the NMHSs acting as

116 APPENDIX VI active information providers and the media as passive information carriers. Yet these days the media have eyes and ears all over the place that can actually bring them closer to the weather phenomena or other weather related incidents. In some cases, their first hand reports of such events may actually enhance public awareness of an impending disaster and its potential consequences, hence rendering the warning process even more effective. How to solicit the active assistance of the media in this respect and how to integrate media derived weather information into the warning process offer exciting possibilities and challenges that would bring meteorologists media partnership into a new era. Synergizing the power of the media and innovative IT will certainly promote the intelligent and timely usage of warnings and naturally lead to a rational overall response to warnings. Many EWSs designers assume that everyone can be reached by the mass media supplemented by the internet. However, there are people who cannot be reached by these methods, such as communities in hard to reach areas and scattered in off shore islands, undocumented immigrates, homeless people and those who live on the margins of society for any of a number of reason. Reaching out to these people represents another great challenge to emergency managers and innovative means have to be invented to handle such invisible populations. 4. Stimulating anticipated action Despite the best of forecast and timely dissemination, the warning message by itself does not necessarily stimulate an immediate response from individuals. Studies have shown that (Mileti and Sorenson, 1990) before an individual at risk responds to a warning, he/she needs to believe the information presented and personalize the risk. This depends to a large extent on the content and clarity of the initial warning and the credibility of the issuing organization. The potential for individuals to respond appropriately would significantly increase if they are provided with information to enable them to assess their own level of risk highlighting what life saving or property saving actions to take. The challenge here is to structure the warning information in a way that the individual at risk would feel personally affected. Another critical element of an effective warning is the assurance that there is a single authoritative source of the warning and that warnings given in the vicinity of national boundaries are consistent. Warning information from many sources can present problems. At best this is confusing; at worst, it can be life threatening when inconsistent, let alone contradictory, information is introduced to the public. When there is a shared body of water bordering two countries, it is common practice to exchange warning information and to co ordinate the information so that mariners receive the same warning signal from both countries. The cross border warning information is also very useful in creating a discussion forum, possibly through the internet, that makes it possible to coordinate warnings. Communication is significantly enhanced when consistent warning information is received from multiple credible sources. In this respect, the WMO started formal operation of the Severe Weather Information Centre (SWIC) in March 2005 providing access to the official observations on severe weather and warnings on tropical cyclones issued by NMHSs (Figure 1 of the main text). The SWIC is an internet portal ( operated by Hong Kong, China on behalf of the WMO and currently comprises 20 participating Members of WMO. The information on tropical cyclones provided by SWIC includes advisories issued by WMO s Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMC), Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWC) and official warnings issued by NMHSs for their respective countries or regions. At present only forecasts/warnings issued by organization with specific responsibility for a region

117 APPENDIX VI or country is presented and no effort is attempted to harmonize the different forecasts/warnings. Nevertheless, the SWIC serves the role of a trusted source of official warnings/forecasts and is an important step towards a more integrated multi hazard warning system. Furthermore, it provides a very enabling tool to raise the awareness of the public to the threats of approaching hazards. 5. Getting the science through Effective warning must be based on science. However, even the best science does not enable meteorologists to deliver accurate deterministic forecasts on all occasions to decision makers. Nor can one expect public preparedness to be able to keep pace with and make best use of scientific knowledge. Innovative approaches are needed to build effective links between the various stakeholders. Well before Hurricane Katrina on 29 August 2005, US meteorologists had warned that the worst case scenario for New Orleans would involve storm induced failure of the protective levees around the low lying areas. This was exactly what happened but still there were over 1000 deaths and numerous people displaced. The challenge is getting the science through to policy makers and the public. In Hong Kong, the Observatory attaches great importance raising the public s awareness of natural hazards in Hong Kong through reaching out to the public. To this end, an interest group Friends of the Observatory was established 10 years ago. Regular extension activities such as visits and lectures are organized for the 7000 members of the group which amounts to 0.1% of the Hong Kong population. Newsletters with news on the latest development of the Observatory are sent to the members as well as business partners. Members of the Friends of the Observatory in turn are invited to serve in focus group meetings to provide feedback on new services from the user point of view. To enhance partnership with the media, regular informal gatherings are organized to facilitate sharing of views and experience. A 12 month publicity schedule is prepared well in advance to facilitate planning and to maximize the impact of the launch of new services or activities. Gatherings with media representatives are conducted regularly to build up partnership and enhance mutual understanding. The Observatory often partners with other government departments and NGOs to launch various publicity campaigns on awareness of natural disaster risk prevention and mitigation. In 2005, the Observatory together with several other government departments and NGOs jointly conducted a one year community education programme named as Safer Living to enhance the public s understanding of natural hazards in Hong Kong so that appropriate response actions can be taken by them to reduce natural disasters for a safer living. (Details of the Safer Living programme can be found at Over the past couple of years, the Observatory has gone beyond the training of meteorological personnel by embarking upon the provision of meteorological education for the public and government officers. The aim is to promote public awareness and preparedness against weather related disasters. Introductory meteorological courses on "interpretation of radar and satellite pictures", "weather forecasting and interpretation of weather charts", numerical weather prediction and weather observation practices are organised regularly for government officers and members of the public. These courses proved to be very popular. So far, over 2500 people have attended these courses. In an effort to reach out to the young generation, the Observatory in collaboration with the Hong Kong Education City, a government funded organization for promoting educational services and information technology culture to the education sector, organized a Weather Diary activity for secondary school

118 APPENDIX VI students from 17 May to 17 June The activity was aimed at arousing the interest and curiosity of students in meteorology through observing the weather. The Weather Diary involved students making observation each day of the cloud amount, state of sky and rain type, and recording them on line. Students were free to add remarks and upload photographs they had taken of the sky and clouds. During the one month period, more than 1500 students from about 250 schools took part in the activity. Moreover, the Observatory also maintains close liaison with government departments responsible for emergency response as well as engages more and more special user groups such as transport operators, container terminal operators, property management associations, teachers and parent associations, school bus and nanny van operators, fishermen associations etc. through organizing regular meetings and safety seminars. Such contacts facilitate better mutual understanding between the Observatory and key user groups stakeholders users. They also provide a channel to obtain feedback on the Observatory s services which will form the basis for improvement of the warning system. 7. Conclusions Multi hazard early warning systems must be viewed as an integral element of long term strategies in the sustainable development for a safer community. Consequently, there is an inevitable need to ensure that multi hazard warnings become an integral part of the disaster risk management efforts in every community. It also follows that NMHSs need to be recognized as a major component of the corresponding infrastructure in support of disaster risk management. Besides improving the accuracy and lead time of forecasts and warnings, NMHSs must also establish links with all stakeholders to make sure that the required science and information get through. In the fight against natural disasters, meteorologists and scientists must appreciate that disasters involve both Mother Nature and Mortals. Scientific endeavours constitute only half of the business. For a warning to be effective, all stakeholders must understand the warning messages and be willing to act. As pointed out by Mr. C. Y. Lam, Vice President of Regional Association II (Asia) of WMO, NMHSs must gain the trust of people, to ensure that the community would indeed take actions upon receipt of the warnings (Lam, 2005). To achieve this, NMHSs must reach out to the people. This dual nature of the business of natural disaster reduction, both as a scientific subject and as a human issue, is quite a challenge to researchers and operational forecasters. As such, apart from scientific capacity building, NMHSs should also expend no less effort in the building of trust with the community they serve. References Lam, C.Y., National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Natural Disaster Reduction, WMO Bulletin, Vol.54, No. 4, October, Mileti, D.S. and J.H. Sorenson, Communication of Emergency Public Warnings A Social Science Perspective and State of the Art Assessment, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, ORNL 6609, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. (available on the Internet: )

119 APPENDIX VI Figure A 1 SWIRLS two hour rainfall forecast valid at 6 am on 8 May 2004 (left) as compared with the actual rainfall distribution map valid at the same time (right). Figure A 2 TIPS (Tropical Cyclone Information Processing System), showing forecast track of Severe Tropical Storm Sanvu as at 11 August UTC