AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

Transcription

1 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK MULTINATIONAL SATELLITE AND WEATHER INFORMATION FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE IN EASTERN AFRICA (SAWIDREA) CDSF/OSAN/GECL December 2016

2 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ACRONYMS i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY iii 1 BACKGROUND Origin of the Project Sector Priorities Problem Definition Beneficiaries and Stakeholders Justification for CDSF Support 3 2 THE PROJECT Objectives of the Project Impacts Outcomes Outputs Activities Risks and Mitigation Measures Cost and Financing Plan/Budget Estimates 9 3 IMPLEMENTATION Recipient Project Organization and Institutional Analysis Project Implementation Plan Procurement arrangement Disbursement Arrangements and Expenditure Schedule Financial Management Capacity, reporting and Auditing Project Supervision Plan Project Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting arrangement 15 4 PROJECT BENEFITS Effectiveness and efficiency including value for money Sustainability 17 5 LETTER OF AGREEMENT 17 6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusion Recommendations 18 Annex I: ICPAC Project s Geographical Area Map I Annex II: Project Logical Framework II Annex III: Status of Numerical Weather Predication in Eastern Africa VI Annex IV: TOR for International and National Experts VII Annex V: Cost Estimates XVI Annex-VI: - Project Management Structure XVII Annex VI b: Schematic Structure of PIU XVIII Annex VII: Project Implementation Plan XX Annex VIII: Equipment specifications XXI Annex IX: Financial Management Action Plan XXIV

3 List of Tables Table 1: Project cost estimates by components.. 10 Table 2; Project cost estimates by Source of Financing 11 Table 3: Project cost estimates by category of Expenditure.. 11 Table 4: Detailed Procurement Plan Table 5: Disbursement arrangement and expenditure schedule..15 Table 6: Project Monitoring... 17

4 ACMAD ACP ADF AfDB ATOVS AU AUC CCA CDSF COSMO DRM DRR EAC ECMWF EFI EO EPS EU EUMETSATAT EW EWS FIP FEWS NET GHA GHACOFs GFDRR GPCs HELIX ICPAC IDDRSI IGAD IPCC IPSAS ISACIP IT KM KMS KOICA M&E MESA MM5 NMHSs LIST OF ACRONYMS African Centre of Meteorological Application for Development African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States African Development Fund African Development Bank Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder African Union African Union Commission Climate Change Adaptation ClimDev (Climate for Development in Africa) Special Fund Consortium for Small Scale Modelling Disaster Risk Management Disaster Risk Reduction East African Community European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Extreme Forecast Index Earth Observation Ensemble Forecasting System European Union European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites Early Warning Early Warning Systems Facility Investment Programme Famine Early Warning Systems Network Greater Horn of Africa Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forums Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts High EndcLimate Impacts and Extremes IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre IGAD Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative Intergovernmental Authority on Development Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Public Sector Accounting Standards Institutional Support to African Climate Institutions Project Information Technology Kilometre Kenya Meteorological Services Korea International Cooperation Agency Monitoring and Evaluation Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa Fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model National Meteorological and Hydrological Services i

5 MOS NWP PDLNA PIU PREPARED RARS RCCs RCOF SWF SWFDP UNCCD UNDP UNESCO UNFCCC UNISDR USAID USGS WB WRF WMO Model Output Statistics Numerical Weather Prediction Post Disaster Loss and Needs Assessment Project Implementation Unit Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research and Development Regional ATOVS Retransmission Services Regional Climate Centres Regional Climate Outlook Forum Severe Weather Forecast Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification United Nations Development Programme United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction United States Agency for International Development United States Geological Survey World Bank Weather Research and Forecasting World Meteorological Organization ii

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa region, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. The harzards are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Since 1985 the Horn of Africa region has experienced 218 major floods causing death of more than 12,200 people and displacement of 14.4 million people (Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 2014). The drought of 2008 to 2011 led to the call for a fundamental change in management of disasters in the region, with the region s Heads of State and Government issuing a strong call for reform of the system of emergency humanitarian response in the region, aiming at enhancing resilience and promoting long-term solutions. At the Summit of the Heads of State and Government of East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) held in Nairobi, Kenya on 9 th September 2011, on the Horn of Africa Crisis; undertook to enhance the provision of timely and actionable Early Warning information to all actors by strengthening the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). ICPAC has made enormous contribution to the improvement of the quality of the seasonal climate prediction and dissemination of climate early warning products for disaster risk management. However, shorter time scales forecasting of severe weather is not as developed in the region as the seasonal climate forecasting. This project has been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and numerical prediction capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to improved livelihood in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. The project has five major components including to Enhance Regional and National Capacities in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP); Applications of severe weather early warning in Disaster Risk Management; Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs); Support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services; and the project management. Five main outcomes are expected at the end of project implementation. These are: Core capacities of ICPAC to provide severe weather forecasts are improved, to meet the needs of NMHSs and DRM: Effective use of hydro-meteorological services and real-time early warning systems (EWS); GHACOF reinforced as world class climate risk & mitigation platform; Improved core capacities of NMHSs to provide early warning of severe weather to meet the needs of DRM agencies; and Successful project implemented according to the project implementation plan. The proposed implementation structure includes: (a) ICPAC Steering Committee (b) Project Implementation Unit (PIU). The Steering Committee will be responsible for overall policy, constant review, approving work plans and coordination of project implementation. PIU will provide technical inputs; review work plans, budgets, progress reports and will be responsible for effective coordination, execution and day-to-day management of the project including financial management, procurement, progress reporting and monitoring. All procurement of goods, works and services will be in accordance with the Bank s Rules of Procedure for Procurement of Goods and Works2008 edition and revised July 2012 or, as appropriate, Rules of Procedure for the Use of Consultants 2008 edition and revised July 2012, using relevant Bank s Standard Bidding Documents, and the provisions stipulated in the Financing Agreement. iii

7 A mid-term review will be conducted after two years of implementation and final evaluation of the project at the end of four years of implementation. The mid-term and final project reports will be submitted to the African Development Bank. iv

8 1 BACKGROUND 1.1 Origin of the Project The Eastern African region, with a population of 293 million people, faces many challenges emanating from a wide range of environmental and human health risks as a result of natural and anthropogenic hazards. Key hazards are drought, floods, conflicts, disease epidemics and fire. Other threatening hazards include: industrial/transport accidents, environmental pollution, crop and livestock pests, earthquakes and land slide. These hazards have spawned disasters of varying magnitudes in the past. Actual and potential disaster risks still remain a development challenge for the region in the foreseeable future. Disasters destroy years of development efforts, squander vast resource investments, and perpetuate poverty, damage infrastructure and the natural environment, impoverish communities, and divert national priorities and development resources to emergency management operations. The high population growth rate, increased levels of poverty, environmental degradation and climate change impacts have particularly placed the people of the region at risk to both human-made and natural hazards. Vulnerabilities related to changing demographics and socio-economic conditions including, unplanned settlements in high-risk zones, under-development, environmental degradation, competition for scarce resources and the impact of epidemics, points to a future where disasters in the region could increasingly threaten peoples lives and economies. Particular vulnerable groups such as women, children, youth, elderly and people with disability are more at risk than any other member of a given community in disaster prone areas. Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. They are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. Since 1985 the Horn of Africa region has experienced 218 major floods causing death of more than 12,200 people and displacement of 14.4 million people (Dartmouth Flood Observatory, 2014). The drought of 2008 to 2011 led to the call for a fundamental change in management of disasters in the region, with the region s Heads of State and Government issuing a strong call for reform of the system of emergency humanitarian response in the region, aiming at enhancing resilience and promoting longterm solutions. At the Summit of the Heads of State and Government of East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) held in Nairobi, Kenya on 9 th September 2011, on the Horn of Africa Crisis; undertook to enhance the provision of timely and actionable Early Warning information to all actors by strengthening the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). ICPAC has made enormous contribution to the improvement of the quality of the seasonal climate prediction and dissemination of climate early warning products for disaster risk management. However, shorter time scales forecasting of severe weather is not as developed in the region as the seasonal climate forecasting due to limited Numerical Prediction (NWP) Capability (See Annex III). This project has been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and NWP capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to livelihood improvement through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities in ICPAC Member Countries indicated in Annex I. 1

9 1.2 Sector Priorities The project is consistent with the African Union Climate Change Strategy in mainstreaming and integrating climate change imperatives in planning, budgeting, and development processes. It aims to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and NWP capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. This project is aligned with relevant sectoral, regional and national strategies and policies including the Climate Resilience and Green Economy Strategy (CRGE), the Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), the African Integrated Strategy on Meteorology and the African Strategy on Disaster Risk Reduction, which aim to correctly position weather and climate services as an essential component in national and regional development framework and sustainable development in Africa, particularly in poverty reduction efforts, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. This project is also aligned to the Bank s Climate Risk Management and Adaptation Strategy, which declares the Bank s and IGAD commitment to build a climate resilient green economy. 1.3 Problem Definition Severe weather is any dangerous meteorological phenomena with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life. Severe weather phenomena vary, depending on the latitude, altitude, topography, and atmospheric conditions. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), severe weather events such as wind storms, heat waves and floods are all likely to become more frequent and more severe in the future due to climate change. Hence, there is need to provide early warnings of weather events such as these made a few days ahead of the event and based on medium-range forecasts to allow some time for contingency plans to be put in place. In Eastern Africa the following constitute severe weather events: extreme precipitation resulting in drought, floods, landslides/hadam, extreme temperatures, strong winds, frost, hailstones, thunderstorms and lightning among others. The project will generate NWP model outputs, as well as use high resolution satellite data to provide severe weather forecasts for disaster risk reduction at regional member countries level including ICPAC. The project interventions will contribute to livelihood improvement through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities in ICPAC Member Countries. 1.4 Beneficiaries and Stakeholders The main beneficiaries in this project will be the 40% of the IGAD region population who are exposed to hydro-meteorological hazards. The Greater Horn of Africa region covered by ICPAC has a population of about 292,710,923. The direct beneficiaries will be the IGAD/ICPAC that will host and implement the project, and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) as well as disaster management and civil protection authorities in the eleven counties 1 covered by ICPAC. The other beneficiaries will be the stakeholders found in sectors which are sensitive to climate variability and 1 The IGAD/ICPAC covers eleven states (Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Somalia, Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania) 2

10 highly vulnerable to climate variability and climate change in the eleven countries. These include the agricultural, the water and energy, the health, the disaster risk reduction and the food security sectors. The Project team will organise consultative workshops and meetings for all the beneficiaries to discuss on the framework for the applications of the early warning information that will be generated by the project. Twenty-one (21) students who completed post graduate studies under the ISACIP 2 programme will be seconded to the project. 1.5 Justification for CDSF Support Through this project ICPAC will be able to run forecast models at a high resolution over Eastern Africa to forecast severe weather such as extreme precipitation resulting in floods or drought, extreme temperatures, strong winds, thunderstorms and lightening among others. The outputs will enable the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in the region to provide improved early warning information on severe weather to Disaster Risk Management Institutions in their respective countries. This would enable the participating countries develop effective disaster mitigation strategies that would facilitate reduction of weather related disaster risks and build resilience and adaptive capacity of community. This project is therefore consistent with the three areas of intervention of CDSF. In result area one, the proposed project is consistent with parts (iii) Capacity building to collect and manage climate and hydrological data; (iv) Development of early warning systems and short term and seasonal forecasts. (vii) Appropriate packaging and dissemination of climate information for all climate-sensitive sectors and users. In area two, the project is consistent with parts (i) Development of knowledge management systems for shared information, knowledge, experience and best practices; (ii) Identification and analyses of risks and potential impacts of climate change, and the climate vulnerability of African development and poverty reduction; and (iv) Development of decision-support tools for policy making to determine the most effective practices to build resilience and adapt in Africa. 2 THE PROJECT 2.1 Objectives of the Project The overall Goal of this project is to enhance the use of high resolution satellite data to generate severe weather forecasts to support Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Eastern Africa. The Project specific objectives are to: i. Enhance NWP regional capacities including assimilation of high resolution satellite data; ii. Enhance capacities of the NMHS in the Horn of Africa to receive NWP model or to run nationalscale NWP model in order to raise relevant warnings of extreme weather events to their respective DRM agencies; iii. Demonstrate on the use of severe weather forecasts in risk management (e.g., flood prevention) 2 Institutional support to African Climate Institutions Project (ISACIP) is AfDB funded projected to enhance the capacity of African Climate Institutions including the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC). 3

11 and expand the use of lesson learned on all the territories through NMHS. iv. Support the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for integrating DRM aspects. 2.2 Impacts The project will contribute to livelihood improvement in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. 2.3 Outcomes The expected outcomes by component after the implementation of project are described in the following section. Component 1: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Infrastructure at ICPAC Improved core capacities of ICPAC to provide severe weather forecasts to meet the needs of NMHSs and DRM. Component 2: Application of severe weather forecasts for Disaster Risk Management Effective use of hydro-meteorological services and real-time early warning systems (EWS). Component 3: Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Reinforced GHACOF as world class climate risk & mitigation platform. Component 4: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Infrastructure at NMHSs Improved core capacities of NMHSs to provide early warning of severe weather to meet the needs of DRM agencies. Component 5: Project management and administration Successfully implemented project according to the project implementation plan 2.4 Outputs The expected outputs by component that will result from the implementation of project activities are described in the following section. Component 1: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at ICPAC Three key outputs will be produced in this component Infrastructure for regional wide NWP model procured, installed, maintained and operational at ICPAC & NMHSs; NWP specialists at regional levels trained; Feedback loops from NMHS to ICPAC and from ICPAC to ACMAD established. Component 2: Applications of early warning of severe weather in DRM One key output will be produced in this component Benefits of NWP for flood Early warning demonstrated Component 3: Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Two key outputs will be produced in this component 4

12 Reinforced Greater Horn of Africa Climate outlook forum as a DRM user interface platform. Improved contingency plans based of weather/climate early warning Component 4: Support to NMHSs Three key outputs will be produced in this component Infrastructure to run NWP model for severe weather at NMHSs established; Real time early warning framework for early action for the Member countries developed; Training on use of NWP to generate severe weather forecasts for Staff from NMHSs conducted. Component 5: Project management and administration Project implementation team identified, recruited and deployed Materials, equipment and personnel acquired. Records and reports of implementation activities for monitoring and evaluation documented. 2.5 Activities Component 1: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) at ICPAC Output 1: Infrastructure for regional wide NWP model operational at ICPAC; Activity 1: Establish linkage between ACMAD, ICPAC and NMHSs; Activity 2: Procure and install computers and routers to receive RARs data at ICPAC; Activity 3: Install and run NWP model at ICPAC using model outputs provided by ACMAD Output 2: NWP specialists at regional levels trained; Activity 1: Hire additional experts at ICPAC; Activity 2: Organise training of trainers (TOT) courses on NWP Output 3: Feedback loops from NMHS to ICPAC and from ICPAC to ACMAD established Activity 1: Assess model performance for relevant elements through model output verifications at regional level; Activity 2: Organise workshops for NMHSs to provide feedback on performance of downscaled regional model outputs; Activity 3: Undertake missions to ACMAD to discuss the performance of the inputs from the continental level model outputs. The activities of this component will be undertaken in partnership with the ACMAD. Through a memorandum of understanding, ACMAD will procure and install RARs station at ICPAC- the station will jointly be run by ICPAC and ACMAD. ICPAC will procure and install computers and routers to facilitate reception and storage of data from the RARs station. Using computer cluster procured through the ISACIP, ICPAC will run WRF model at 4 KM. The initial data and boundary conditions for this model will be provided by ACMAD from its WRF model ran at 12 KM resolution. To improve the provision of severe weather forecasts to meet the needs of NMHSs and DRM, ICPAC will: (i) hire NWP 5

13 and IT experts to run the NWP model; (ii) assist staff from the NMHSs to access and downscale the regional outputs to national and sub-national levels; (iii) and organise and conduct Training of Trainers (TOT) courses on NWP for the participating NMHSs. The performance of the model outputs at regional level will be assessed by the ICPAC staff, while NMHSs will assess the performance of the model outputs at national level. The results on model will be shared among the participating NMHSs at national workshops organized at ICPAC, while the regional and continental workshops will be organized at ACMAD. The main outcome of this component will be improved core capacities of ICPAC to provide severe weather forecasts to meet the needs of NMHSs and DRM. Component 2: Applications of severe weather early warning in Disaster Risk Management Output 1: Benefits of NWP for flood early warning demonstrated Activity 1: Procure hydro-meteorological station equipment for pilot site; Activity 2: Develop a pilot site to demonstrate flood risk prevention using severe weather forecast; Activity 3: Organise secondment roaster for Hydrologists and DRM experts from Member States to demonstrate use of severe weather in flood mitigation. The activities of this component will be undertaken in collaboration with the Participating NMHSs and DRM agencies. ICPAC will select a pilot demonstration site in flood prone area. ICPAC will procure and install hydrological equipment at the demonstration site, which be used to test the relevance of the severe weather forecast. Real-time feedback from the pilot site will be compared with the forecast to facilitate assessment and validation. The validated Severe Weather Forecasts will be used for disaster risk prevention. All sets of preventive measures will be applied in coordination with local communities. The pilot demonstration site will also be used as a learning field for all stakeholders in the region. The experience gained and lessons learned in the pilot demonstration area will then be up-scaled throughout the region in collaboration with NMHSs and DRM agencies. The main outcome from this component will be effective use of hydro-meteorological services and realtime early warning systems (EWS). Component 3: Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) Output 1: Regional Climate outlook forums reinforced as a DRM user interface platform. Activity 1: Organise regional climate outlook forums between providers of weather/climate early warning and users including DRM experts; Output2: Improved contingency plans based of weather/climate early warning Activity 2: Organise workshops for DRM experts to develop national mitigation strategies and contingency plans based on downscaled forecasts of extreme events. ICPAC will orgainise Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) in collaboration with WMO, NMHSs, regional / international institutions and partners to deliver consensus-based and user-relevant weather/climate products in real time. The RCOF process will include Pre-COF capacity building 6

14 training workshops to improve skills of national and regional climate scientists in forecasting. Main meetings will be organised before the onset of the main rainfall seasons to generate consensus regional climate outlooks by merging inputs from the WMO Global Producing Centres, regional inputs and national climate outlooks using expert interpratation. Forums will involve key stakeholders including climate providers and users where the consensus regional climate outlook will be presented to the users including DRM, who will translate the forecasts into sectoral impacts and develop mitigation strategies for their respective sectors. At national levels will convene national forecast dissemination forums where The regional forecasts will be downscaled to national and sub-nation levels and disseminated to various users at national forecast dissermination forums convened at national levels. The DRM agencies will convene national workshops where contingency plans plans will be developed based of the national / sub-national forecasts. The main outcome of this component will be a reinforced Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) as a world class climate risk & mitigation platform. Component 4: Support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) Output 1: Infrastructure to run NWP model NMHSs operational Activity 1: Procure and install computers and routers to receive RARs data at NMHSs; Activity 2: Install and run NWP model at NMHSs using model outputs provided by ICPAC Output 2: Real time early warning framework for early action for the Member countries developed Activity 1: Organise stakeholders workshop for Member States to discuss and agree on real time early warning framework for early action Output 3: Training on use of NWP to generate severe weather forecasts for NMHSs Staff conducted. Activity 1: organise workshops on use of NWP outputs to generate severe weather forecasts Activity 2: Assess model performance for relevant elements. ICPAC will procure and install computers and routers at the NMHSs. NWP models will be installed at NMHSs and run using initial and boundary conditions that will be provided by ICPAC. Stakeholders workshop will be organised for the participants drawn from the participating Member States to discuss and approve real time early warning framework for early action. ICPAC will also organise regular workshops to train the NHMSs staff on the use of NWP model outputs to develop extreme forecast indices (EFI) and generate severe weather forecasts. ICPAC will also train the NHMSs staff on various methods used in assessment of model performance. The main outcome of this component will be improved core capacities of NMHSs to provide early warning of severe weather to meet the needs of DRM agencies. Component 5: Project management and administration Output 1: Project implementation team identified, recruited and deployed Activity 1: Set up Project of Implementation Unit by assigning relevant staff to the project; Activity 2: Identify, hire and assign project staff; Output 2: Materials, equipment and personnel acquired. Activity1: Train staff on project procurement plan, financial management and project implementation plan 7

15 Activity 2: Implement procurement and financial transactions for project implementation Output 3: Records and reports of implementation activities for monitoring and evaluation documented. Activity 1 Safe custody of all project reports Activity 2: Inventory and tracking of all project materials and equipment Activity 3: Prepare quarterly, mid-term and annual progress reports for M&E The activities in this component will be carried out by the Project Implementation Unit (PIU). The PIU will be set up by ICPAC and its key members will be: The ICPAC Director, Programme Manager Climate Diagnostics and Prediction, Head of Finance and Administration, Programme Officer in charge of Water Resources, project procurement specialist, NWP Expert and IT expert. The PIU will be assisted by NMHSs and DRM agencies will nominate second staff to the project on rotation basis. Additional staff will be hired to support the PIU. The hired staff will be trained on procurement, financial management and implementation. ICPAC will implement the project in close collaboration with the Participating NMHSs and DRM agencies The main outcome of this component will be successfully implemented project according to the project implementation plan. 2.6 Risks and Mitigation Measures The following risks to the successful implementation of the project have been identified as well as mitigation measures to be taken to reduce the potential negative impact on the attainment of the stated outcomes. Project implementation risks that could be identified at this stage include: 1. Risk: Limited operationalisation of NWP models in some of the Member States due to disparity in numerical weather modelling capability in the region. Mitigation Measure: The project will establish a common numerical weather modelling infrastructure at ICPAC to enable countries with low NWP capability to access downscaled forecasts from ICPAC. 2. Risk: Weak IT and telecommunications infrastructure in Member States to receive raw satellite data and model outputs from ICPAC. Mitigation Measure: The project will ensure that Member States with weak IT Technology could access country specific products through Map room that will be set up at ICPAC. 3. Risk: Insecurity in the pilot demonstration site. Mitigation Measure: The project team will identify areas that are related safe for setting the pilot demonstration. 4. Risk: Delays in implementing one of the subcomponents of the system for whatever reasons will prevent the realization of the primary objective to save lives. All components must be implemented simultaneously for the expected coordination effects to take place. Mitigation Measure: Ensure upfront commitments and strong coordination of all stakeholders including operators, participating countries, agencies and financial. 8

16 5. Risk: Weak capacity of the implementing agency. Mitigation Measures: The project will fill capacity gaps by introduction of PIU and technical support of experienced consultants and skills development programme. Coordination with other projects being implemented by IGAD should also help to address this weakness 2.7 Cost and Financing Plan/Budget Estimates The project total cost is estimated at Euro 2,642, including contingency of 4% and net of taxes and duties. The CDSF will finance Euro 2,467, or 93% and the ICPAC s contribution is estimated at Euro 175,200 or 7% of the total cost. The cost estimates by component, source of financing and category of expenditure are presented in Table 1, Table 2 and Table 3 below. A detailed breakdown of this information is provided in Annex V: Project cost estimates. Table 1: Project Cost Estimates by Component Component Euro % Component 1 NWP 699, Component 2 DRM 515, Component 3 RCOFS 411, Component 4 NMHS 543, Component 5 Project Coordination 355, Contingency 117, Total 2,642, Include ICPAC s in-kind contribution of EURO 175, Table 2: Project Cost Estimates by Source of Financing Source Euro % ICPAC 175, CDSF 2,467, Total 2,642, ICPAC s in-kind contribution. These are costs borne by ICPAC to facilitate the implementation of the project but not charged to the CDSF project funds such as transportation (vehicle, fuel, driver time) water, electricity, photocopying, telephone and ICPAC staff time who are not part of the budgeted project staff. 9

17 Table 3: Project Cost Estimates by Category of Expenditure. Main Category Sub- Category Euro % WORKS GOODS Equipment 1,290, SERVICES Consultancy/Contractual 541, MISCELLANEOUS Operating Expenses 373, Other Expenses 320, CONTINGENCY Contingency 117, Total 2,642, Include ICPAC s in-kind contribution of EURO 175,200 3 IMPLEMENTATION 3.1 Recipient The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) was originally established in 1989 as the Drought Monitoring Centre based in Nairobi in response to the devastating climate-related disasters within the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) Region. It was renamed IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) in 2003 in order to better reflect all its mandates, missions and objectives. ICPAC is therefore a specialized institution of the Intergovernmental Development Authority (IGAD) based in Nairobi, Kenya, whose mission is to provide timely climate early warning information and support specific sector applications to enable the region cope with various risks associated with extreme climate variability and change for poverty alleviation, environment management and sustainable development for the Member States. ICPAC is mandated to work on climate related issues within 11 member countries: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Uganda as well as Burundi, Rwanda and Tanzania. The vision of ICPAC is to become a viable regional centre of excellence in climate prediction and applications for climate risk management, environmental management and sustainable development. ICPAC is governed through a protocol signed by the respective Member States and its activities are monitored by a steering committee whose membership is again drawn from the very Member States. The centre is funded by IGAD through the Members States contributions and also continues to attract various partners and donor support in different projects. The centre is a number of donor funded projects. The donors include, USAID, Norwegian government, European Union, Korea government, UNDP and African Development Bank. This project will be implemented by ICPAC in collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and build on the existing infrastructures both at ICPAC and NMHSs. Dedicated equipment for severe weather forecasting will be provided to NMHSs and a common infrastructure will be established at ICPAC that will enable countries such as Djibouti, Eritrea, South Sudan and Somalia with no capacity to run numerical weather prediction (NWP), to actively participate in the exercise till they are able to deploy their own NWP systems. 10

18 Each country will be allocated processing time and specific folder attached to a user profile. Based on needs assessments the capacity of the countries will also be built at ICPAC using the central infrastructure. 3.2 Project Organization and Institutional Analysis The project will be executed by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and coordinated by ICPAC Director under the guidance of ICPAC Steering Committee composed of the Heads of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of the participating countries and representatives of the IGAD Secretariat and WMO. ICPAC has set up Project Implementation Unit (PIU) as follows: The ICPAC Director is the overall project leader and will be the Grant Imprest Administrator. The Programme Manager Climate Diagnostics and Prediction will be the Project Focal Point responsible for the day-to-day coordination of the project and will be the alternate Grant Imprest Administrator. The Head of Finance and Administration will be the Grant Imprest Accounting Officer while the Programme Officer in charge of Water Resources will be the alternate Grant Imprest Accounting Officer. ICPAC will use IGAD financial accounting system for its financial management. In addition ICPAC intends to hire a project Accountant who will handle all the financial functions. NWP Expert who will implement NWP system supported by modelling and application experts seconded from the participating countries. IT expert will also be hired to manage and maintain NWP IT infrastructure including dedicated internet and associated backup systems. The ICPAC Steering Committee will play the oversight role for the project. ICPAC has successfully implemented several projects supported by various development partners including the following: Planning for Resilience in East Africa (PREPARED) funded by USAID; Disaster Risk Reduction Capacity Development in East Africa using Geo-spatial technologies supported by Norwegian Government; Monitoring for Environment and Security in Africa (MESA) supported by European Union; Preparedness to climate variability and change in the Greater Horn of Africa funded by Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA); Institutional support to African climate institutions Project (ISACIP) supported by African Development Bank (AfDB); High End climate Impacts and extremes (HELIX) funded by European Union; Strengthening capacity of ICPAC in dissemination of climate prediction and information to enhance adaptation to climate variability and change funded by Rockefeller Foundation; Strengthening the Capacity of IGAD in Building Resilience in the Horn of Africa supported by United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 3.3 Project Implementation Plan This project will be implemented over a period of four years, starting July/August 2016 to July/August The project activities will be carried out based on the five inter-related project components set out in project logical framework (ANNEX II) according to the project implementation schedule provided in Annex VII. 3.4 Procurement arrangement All procurement will be carried out according to the Bank's Rules and Procedures for Procurement of Goods and Works, Edition May 2008 and revised July 2012 as appropriate, and Rules and Procedures for the Use of Consultants, Edition May 2008 and revised July 2012 using relevant Bank Standard Bidding Documents. Detailed procurement plan is provided in table 4. The procurement of goods and works through International Competitive Bidding (ICB) for the proposed 11

19 project will be done in accordance with Bank Rules of Procedure for Procurement of Goods and Works. The procurement of consultancy services will be done through the Bank Rules and procedures for use of consultants. Procurement through Local Competitive Bidding (LCB) will be done in accordance with the Bank procedures. 12

20 Procurement Categories Table 4: Detailed Procurement Plan ICB NCB Direct Contracting QCBS* Firm Procurement Methods A Works B Goods Mobile calibration units C Equipment 1,000, ,000 85,000 Consultancy Services Training - Tech. Assistance - Studies - Non Consultancy services Travel and Allowances Operating expenses NSLF Individual Consultants Through Shortlist - 499,822 34,000 8,000 Others - 320, ,064** S. Total 1,000, ,000 85, ,822 34,000 8, ,064 Total 2,524, Contingency 117, Grand Total 2,642, * Quality and Cost Based Selection **Operating expenses includes ICPAC s in-kind contribution of EURO 175,200 13

21 3.5 Disbursement Arrangements and Expenditure Schedule The Disbursement methods prescribed in the Bank s Disbursement Handbook will be used including: (i) the Direct Payment; (ii) Special Account; (iii) Reimbursement; and (iv) Reimbursement Guarantee. However, it is envisaged that the Direct Payment and the Special Account shall be the methods used most. Special accounts one in Euro and another in local currency (Kshs) shall be opened by ICPAC at a commercial bank acceptable by AfDB before the first disbursement. The opening of the special account will be a condition precedent to first disbursement. Initial disbursement into the special account will be based on cash flow projection and the agreed work program approved by the Bank through the initial Withdrawal Application to the bank after effectiveness of the project. Actual expenditures will be replenished through submission of Withdrawal Applications supported by Statements of Expenditures (SOE), totalling at least 50% of the pervious disbursement. The disbursement arrangement and expenditure schedule is shown in Table 5 below. Table 5: Disbursement Arrangement and Expenditure Schedule Disbursement arrangement and expenditure Component Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 NWP 213, , , , DRM 234, , , , RCOFS 102, , , , NMHS 253, , , , PROJECT COORDINATION 126, , , , TOTAL 930, , , , Financial Management Capacity, reporting and Auditing Internal Controls and Audit: ICPAC does not have an Internal Audit Department but are supported by the IGAD Secretariat. The IGAD Secretariat in Djibouti has an Internal Audit Department, headed by the Head of Internal Audit and supported by 4 members of staff. She reports functionally to the IGAD Audit Committee and operationally to the Executive Secretary, IGAD. ICPAC offices are audited twice per year. Flexible risk-based annual audit plans are developed using appropriate risk-based methodology for implementation throughout the year. These plans are sent to the IGAD Audit Committee. Quarterly internal audit reports are issued to this committee summarizing the results of the audit which are reviewed and track of previous recommendations by management is also tracked. The IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre (ICPAC) Project shall be included in the audit plan and audited at least once per year, and the reports will be shared with the bank. System access levels have been profiled depending on the duties and staff grade. Passwords do expire every fortnight. Information backups are done regularly by IT Department and archived at locations outside ICPAC offices. Financial Reporting: Currently the Finance Department produces monthly management accounts that are circulated to the Director, IGAD Secretariat HQ and donor partners. The annual project financial 14

22 statements will be prepared in accordance with the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) cash basis annually by 30th June. As the Project is a non- revenue earning, the annual financial statements should include: (i) Statement of Receipts showing separately Bank s funding, those of counter party and cash balances; (ii) Statement of Special Account; (iii) Statements of Expenditures (both for the current year and accumulated to-date); and (iv) Notes to the Financial Statements describing the applicable accounting principles in place and a detailed analysis of the main accounts. ICPAC shall provide an update on financial performance of the project as part of the Quarterly Progress report (QPR) as required by the Bank not later than 45 days after the end of each Quarter. External Audit: ICPAC s external audit has for the past three years been carried out by PricewaterhouseCoopers. They are in the process of procuring an external auditor for the next 3 years. This Project s external audit shall be conducted by an independent auditor to be appointed by ICPAC, and after receiving a no-objection from the Bank, in accordance with International Standards on Auditing using the Bank s terms of reference for external audit. ICPAC s financial year ends on 31 st December. The audit report, complete with a management letter and management responses, shall be submitted to the Bank by ICPAC, through IGAD no later than six months after the end of the fiscal year and no later than 30 th June. Governance and Anti-Corruption: ICPAC being an entity created through IGAD shall be guided by the regulation laid down by IGAD. The operations of the project will be guided by all existing procedures manuals e.g. the finance and administration manual. The internal audit department shall assist in monitoring and evaluating the internal controls. External oversight shall be provided by the independent auditors. The Bank shall also provide oversight, especially during supervision missions that shall take place twice per year. Financial Management Action Plan: The action plan indicating the actions to be taken for the project to strengthen its financial management system and the dates that they are due to be completed is provided in Annex IX. Conclusion of the assessment: A description of the IGAD Climate Prediction & Applications Centre s financial management arrangements above has been found to be adequate to provide, with reasonable assurance, accurate and timely accounts/information on the status of the Project as required by the Bank. Some follow up is required as detailed in the Financial Management Action Plan above. 3.7 Project Supervision Plan The project will be supervised at least twice a year, or as may be required based on its performance. A multi-disciplinary team of experts will be constantly in touch with the project team, under the leadership of the project task manager. 3.8 Project Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting arrangement The project will be monitored based on the Bank s procedures for Monitoring, Evaluation and Reporting. Quarterly Progress Reports shall be prepared every three months, which include progress in activity implementation, financial and procurement management. Project M&E will be based on the measurable performance indicators in each component as outlined in the results based project logical framework and the project implementation work plan. 15

23 Monitoring will be conducted as part of regular project management activities based on the four project components. An M&E specialist will be responsible for monitoring all aspects of project implementation and will report through monthly performance evaluations, quarterly reports and a midterm review (MTR) report and annual progress reports. Joint supervision and mid-term review missions will be conducted by the Bank during the implementation of this project. Table 6: Project Monitoring. Activity Responsible entity Tentative- 16 Deadline** Approval by the FIP Sub-Committee FIP (ICPAC)/ADB June 2016 Negotiations ICPAC/ ADB June/July 2016 Grant Approval ADB June/July2016 Authorization of 1st Disbursement ICPAC / ADB July/August 2016 Project Launching ICPAC / IGAD/ ADB August 2016 Procurement and processing of the Experts ICPAC August/September 2016 Agreements Signed with Technical Services ICPAC August 2016 Signing of Contracts ICPAC August 2016 Service Delivery ICPAC September 2016 Mid-term Evaluation ICPAC / ADB September 2018 Completion of Activities ICPAC July 30th, 2020 Grantee or Recipient s Completion IGAD August 2020 Final Evaluation ICPAC/ADB August 2020 Completion Report ICPAC October 30 th, 2020 ** Tentative -Dates may change depending on the final approval by the Board. The project s monitoring and evaluation (M&E) mechanism will be established in line with the project s organization chart. The ICPAC and the Bank will ensure close monitoring throughout project implementation. Joint supervision, monitoring and mid-term review missions will be conducted by the Bank during project implementation. An M&E manual identifying the relevant indicators as well as the monitoring procedures to be implemented will be prepared at the start of the project. The project will ensure two monitoring types: internal monitoring and external monitoring. Internal monitoring will be conducted by the Project Implementation Unit based on trend charts to be prepared for that purpose. Quarterly and annual progress reports will be produced. External monitoring by a consultant will mainly deal with project impacts, outcomes and outputs with a view to achieving the objectives of the project. It will function in close collaboration with the knowledge management system. Information collected as part of M&E will help to organize knowledge management activities, identify and share best practices, identify problems and constraints and foster continuous improvement within the framework of the project and, more extensively.

24 IGAD and ICPAC has a good experience with donor funded projects in the preparation of the monitoring and evaluation manual and training of the project personnel on project implementation. Thus, a short term local consultant will be hired at the start of the project to develop this type of manual and give training to project personnel. 4 PROJECT BENEFITS 4.1 Effectiveness and efficiency including value for money The proposed activities in the project are basically designed to build the capacity of the Agency so as to improve the quality of the service delivery system to the climate sensitive and vulnerable sectors. Thus the two major pillars are: - The activities organized around the improvement of the infrastructural capacity of the Agencies in data collection, analysis and interpretation. The activities organized around the improvement in the cohesion the interface between users regarding the production of user tailored advisories and products, community oriented grass root meteorological service and a transformation in the communication disseminating and the improve capacity of users in using the products. Unless both groups of activities are undertaken, the projected results, outputs and outcomes will not be realized. 4.2 Sustainability Sustainability will be achieved through a robust capacity building component including training and attachment of national experts to ICPAC and equipment that will be provided to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). ICPAC will continue to assist NMHSs as required through the mandatory functions of Regional Climate Centre. It is expected that with the improved service delivery system as the result of the project, cost recovery systems will be put in place for those users who are ready to pay for the service, thereby bringing an additional source of income in addition to the ICPAC s Budget. Moreover, the successful demonstration of activities in the project would become an impetus both for the Regional and National Government bodies to undertake the sustainability of the activities started in the project by own them as has been exhibited in other successful projects through up scaling to the whole country. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the participating member countries moreover would make the necessary financial arrangements which will ensure the sustainability of the results of the Project, beyond its life time. 5 LETTER OF AGREEMENT Grant Agreement: The AfDB legal department (GECL) will prepare the standard Bank Grant Agreement document to be signed by the relevant authority designated by the Bank s Management and the ICPAC. The Grant Agreement will state the purpose of the CDSF grant, the total funds committed to the Recipient, the agreed Procurement and Disbursement arrangements, and the terms and conditions governing the grant to be adhered to by the CDSF and the Recipient. 17

25 Conditions Precedent to first disbursement shall be: 1. Confirmation and resourcing of the PIU 2. Confirmation of accounting system to be used and 3. Provide evidence of opening a Special Account in a bank acceptable to the Bank for the deposit of the Grant proceeds. 6 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Conclusion This project aims to strengthen the capacity to observe, analyse and forecast weather and climate information to enhance the early warning systems for climate resilient development and adaptation to climate change in East Africa. The focus areas will include improving the coverage of the meteorological station network, improving data collection, management and analysis, and enhancing the capacity of the Region and the National Meteorological Agencies (NHMS) in dissemination of high quality weather and climate information. The project will benefit sectors that are sensitive and highly vulnerable to climate variability due to climate change. These successes would lead to improved use of climate information in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation, and recognition at both regional and global levels. In addition, ICPAC continues expanding knowledge base within the sub-region in order to facilitate informed decision making on climate related issues through understanding knowledge of the past, present and future regional climate. This is critical to the integration of climate information in environment management, disaster risk reduction, climate change adaptation, regional sustainable development, among others. 6.2 Recommendations Management recommends that the Board of Directors approve a grant not exceeding EURO 2,467, from the resources of the CDSF Fund to the ICPAC for the purposes and subject to the conditions stipulated in this report. 18

26 Annex I: ICPAC Project s Geographical Area Map I

27 Annex II: Project Logical Framework VII LOGICAL FRAMEWORK Countries and project name: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda; Enhanced generation of severe weather forecasts in support of Disaster Risk Management Purpose of the project: To improve modelling capabilities for enhanced generation of severe weather forecasts in support of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) in Eastern Africa RESULTS CHAIN IMPACT Poverty Eradication and Livelihood Improvement through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building Resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. PERFORMANCE INDICATORS MEANS OF RISKS/MITIGATION MEASURES Indicator (including CSI) Baseline Target ( after 4yrs) VERIFICATION Post disaster Humanitarian aid to the Horn of Africa Loss of human life and population displacement Horn of Africa currently receives 40% of global humanitarian aid 12,257 lives lost and 14,441,632 displaced due to floods from 1985 to present Reduce humanitarian aid for post climate related disaster to Horn of Africa by 30% by 2020 Reduce by 20% the loss of human life and livelihood due to climate extreme induced hazard in the GHA Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNGW) Reports OUTCOMES Outcome 1 Improved core capacities of ICPAC and NMHSs to meet the needs of DRM agencies Operational severe weather forecast systems at ICPAC and NMHSs At present only two countries have enough operational capacity to meet the needs of the DRM agencies 10 Operational severe weather forecast systems by 2020 ICPAC Steering Committee Reports Risk: Limited operationalisation of NWP models in some of the Member States due to disparity in numerical weather modelling capability in the region. Mitigation Measure: The project will establish a common numerical weather modelling infrastructure at ICPAC to enable countries with low NWP capability to access downscaled forecasts from ICPAC. II

28 Outcome 2 Effective use of hydro-meteorological services and real-time early warning systems (EWS) Availability of national contingency plans At present only one country has enough operational capacity to effective use hydrometeorological services and realtime early warning systems (EWS) 1 10 countries in eastern Africa are regularly formulating climate risk management strategies using early warning information Disaster Management Reports Risk Platform Risk: Delays in implementing one of the subcomponents of the system for whatever reasons will prevent the realization of the primary objective to save lives. All components must be implemented simultaneously for the expected coordination effects to take place. Mitigation Measure: Ensure upfront commitments and strong coordination of all stakeholders including operators, participating countries, agencies and financial. Risk: Weak IT and telecommunications infrastructure in Member States to receive raw satellite data and model outputs from ICPAC. Mitigation Measure: The project will ensure that Member States with weak IT Technology could access country specific products through Map room that will be set up at ICPAC. Outcome 3 Reinforced GHACOF as world class climate risk & mitigation platform Component 1 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Climate related disaster monitoring, analysis and dissemination in the GHACOFs Limited participation of Disaster Risk Managements experts in GHACOFs Clear understanding of Reports, climate risk, vulnerabilities and mitigation opportunities developed amongst the DRM and NHMSs updated vulnerability factors and disaster risk mapping for each country Risk: Weak capacity of the implementing agency. Mitigation Measures: The project will fill capacity gaps by introduction of PIU and technical support of experienced consultants and skills development programme. Coordination with other projects being implemented by IGAD should also help to address this weakness. Output 1.1 NWP Infrastructure installed and operational at ICPAC and NMHSs Number of NHMSs with basic NWP Equipment 2 10 NMHSs with basic NWP Equipment Progress reports OUTPUTS Output 1.2 Trained staff in NWP at regional and national levels Number of NWP workshops held 1 12 NWP workshops held in four years Progress reports III

29 Component 2 Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Output 2.1 Number of demonstration sites 1 Demonstration sites Progress reports Risk: Insecurity in the pilot demonstration site. Mitigation Measure: The project team will identify areas that are related safe for setting the pilot demonstration. Benefits of NWP for flood Early warning demonstrated Number of training visit to pilot sites 10 organized visit to pilot sites. Progress reports Component 3 Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Output 3.1 RCOFs organized and reinforced with DRM using SWF. Number of GHACOFs held Number of DRR practices, lesson and experiences sharing GHACOFs held by 2020 At least 2 DRR experience shared per year. Progress reports Component 4 Support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) Number of outreach events held 20 outreach events held by 2020 Number of networking meetings between NMHSs & DRM agencies 30 networking meetings held by 2020 IV

30 COMPONENTS Component 1 Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Component 2 Application of early warning of Severe weather in Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Component 3 Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF) Component 4 Support to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) Component 5 Programme Coordination Contingency Grand Total INPUTS (EUROS) Component 1 : 699, Component 2 : 515, Component 3 : 411, Component 4 : 543, Component 5: 355, Contingency: 117, Total: 2,642, V

31 Annex III: Status of Numerical Weather Predication in Eastern Africa No Country NWP Status Remarks 1 Kenya Running WRF & COSMOS Operational but need further training of staff 2 Tanzania Running WRF & COSMOS Operational but need further training of staff 3 Ethiopia Running MM5 and WRF Operational but need further training of staff 4 Uganda Running WRF on experimental basis 5 Burundi Purchased Computer Cluster & WRF installed 6 Sudan Purchased Computer Cluster & WRF installed 7 Rwanda Purchased Computer Cluster & WRF installed Unreliable Internet & need further training of staff Unreliable Internet & need further training of staff Lack of adequate trained staff Lack of trained staff 8 Djibouti No capacity to run NWP model Lack of equipment and trained staff 9 South Sudan No capacity to run NWP model Lack of equipment and trained staff 10 Eritrea No capacity to run NWP model Lack of equipment and trained staff 11 Somalia No capacity to run NWP model There is no Met. services, but plans are underway to establish Meteorological Services 12 ICPAC ICPAC has powerful computer clusters and is running several NWP models but most of them through post graduate students & part time experts. More equipment is required as well as further recruitment and training of staff VI

32 Annex IV: TOR for International and National Experts A. Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Expert 1 Background The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a specialized Institution of the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The mission of ICPAC is to foster climate services and knowledge to enhance community resilience for prosperity in the Greater Horn of Africa Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa region, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. They are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. The Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa - Eastern Africa project has been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and numerical prediction capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to improved livelihood in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. 2. The objectives of the project v. To enhance NWP regional capacities including assimilation of high resolution satellite data; vi. To enhance capacities of the NMHS in the Horn of Africa to receive NWP model or to run national-scale NWP model in order to raise relevant warnings of extreme weather events to their respective DRM agencies; vii. Demonstration on the use of severe weather forecasts in risk management (e.g., flood prevention) and expand the use of lesson learned on all the territories through NMHS. viii. Support to the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for integrating DRM aspects. 3. Duties of the Regional Numerical Prediction Expect To establish, Numerical Weather Prediction system at ICPAC; Review WMO pilot Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Projects (SWFDP); Post processes the NWP model ensemble data and create archive mass store of the model runs. Prepare map patterns of the NWP model outputs for the eastern Africa region and assess skills of key NWP models; Develop Extreme Forecast Indices (EFI) for key weather parameters; Design techniques to translate EFI into severe weather forecasts; Support the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) to strengthen NWP capacity; Develop a vision for the medium term and long term evolution of such systems and their use in generation of severe weather forecasts; Define and develop, whenever feasible, justifications and scenarios for the development of emerging application systems using Numerical Models and observations; Establish a list of the observations/geophysical parameters (including characteristics) available from EPS and MSG required for initialization and validation purposes. VII

33 4. Language Skills Proficiency in English Language is required, and French language skill is an asset 5. Functional Responsibility The Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Expert will report o the Project Coordinator 6. Duration The duration of the assignment will be four (4) years. 7. Remuneration As per IGAD Project salary scale and policy which is attractive based on applicant s qualification and experience. 8. Qualification and experience Masters degree in Meteorology with specialization in NWP; Five (5) years of working experience in operational NWP; Evidence of good knowledge and applications of NWP models 9. Key Skills and Competencies Excellent computing skills including working with Fortran, Unix and Linux, other compiled computer languages such as. C, C++, Java, etc. are necessary Good programming systems Ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing Ability to prepare written reports in a clear, concise and meaningful manner Ability to work with minimum supervision 10. Work Station ICPAC Headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya. Some missions to IGAD member states might also be necessary. B. Regional IT Expert 1. Background The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a specialized Institution of the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The mission of ICPAC is to foster climate services and knowledge to enhance community resilience for prosperity in the Greater Horn of Africa Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa region, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. They are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. VIII

34 The Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa - Eastern Africa project has been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and numerical prediction capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to improved livelihood in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. 2. The objectives of the project i. To enhance NWP regional capacities including assimilation of high resolution satellite data; ii. To enhance capacities of the NMHS in the Horn of Africa to receive NWP model or to run national-scale NWP model in order to raise relevant warnings of extreme weather events to their respective DRM agencies; iii. Demonstration on the use of severe weather forecasts in risk management (e.g., flood prevention) and expand the use of lesson learned on all the territories through NMHS. iv. Support to the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for integrating DRM aspects. 3. Responsibilities Coordinate IT networking and system administration services; Development, maintain and ensure security of IT infrastructure; Administer Internet and Web Servers to ensure 24 hours none interruption of modelling services; Coordinate acquisition of new IT resources, regular improvements or upgrades and also customize software programs for internal needs; Schedule and implement preventative hardware maintenance activities and undertake/coordinate repairs in response to hardware failures. Constantly review the IT needs and requirements against emerging technological trends and advice management on how the needs can be met using the latest technology. Prepare technical manuals, periodic progress reports and annual reports as required by ICPAC. Maintain an inventory of all ICPAC IT resources, including service agreements and contracts. Carry out basic training on relevant IT systems to ensure the efficient execution of tasks and efficient use of the available and new software by ICPAC staff and users. Support IT related capacity building activities of ICPAC and NMHSs (National Meteorological and Hydrological Services). 4. Language Skills Proficiency in English Language is required, and French language skill is an asset 5. Functional Responsibility The Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Expert will report o the Project Coordinator IX

35 6. Duration The duration of the assignment will be four (4) years. 7. Remuneration As per IGAD Project salary scale and policy which is attractive based on applicant s qualification and experience. 8. Qualifications and experience At least a Degree in Computer Science or equivalent in Information Technology with a specialization in networking and system administration At least five years of working experience in an operational institution, especially handling large number of users providing application services to external users/clients; Good knowledge of Windows Server 2008, Unix, Linux, etc. 9. Competencies Excellent facilitation skills, good IT skills, ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing; ability to prepare written reports in a clear, concise and meaningful manner; and ability to work with minimum supervision 10. Work Station ICPAC Headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya. Some missions to IGAD member states might also be necessary. C. Project Accountant 1. Background The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a specialized Institution of the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The mission of ICPAC is to foster climate services and knowledge to enhance community resilience for prosperity in the Greater Horn of Africa Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa region, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. They are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. The Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa - Eastern Africa project has been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and numerical prediction capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to improved livelihood in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. X

36 2. The objectives of the project i. To enhance NWP regional capacities including assimilation of high resolution satellite data; ii. To enhance capacities of the NMHS in the Horn of Africa to receive NWP model or to run national-scale NWP model in order to raise relevant warnings of extreme weather events to their respective DRM agencies; iii. Demonstration on the use of severe weather forecasts in risk management (e.g., flood prevention) and expand the use of lesson learned on all the territories through NMHS. iv. Support to the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for integrating DRM aspects. 3. Duties and Responsibilities The Duties and Responsibilities of Project Accountant include: a) Processes accurately and promptly all accounting transactions in the coordination unit, including payroll, operating expenses, travel, consultant payments, vendor payments, charge backs and other office running expenses. b) Maintains a reconciled accounts at any given point in the Project Coordination Unit, c) Keeps relevant documents and invoices systematically to fully support the accounts; d) Performs monthly bank account reconciliation and reviews cash flow and replenishment needs of the Project Coordination Unit. e) Prepare payment vouchers after careful verification of the supporting documents and prepare cheques against approved payment documents, f) Effect timely payments and resolve accounting related issues of the Project; g) Assist in the planning aspect and preparation of annual budget and ensure in the monitoring budget and expenses; h) Ensure IGAD/ICPAC internal control procedures are adhered with; i) Prepare batches/input forms for approval and post it in the computer. j) Reconcile the General Ledger and fund accounts. k) Generate a variety of standard and customized financial/accounting reports l) Submit regular and ad-hoc financial reports to the ICPAC s Finance and Accounts Unit. m) Analyze receivables and other suspense accounts for clearance on a quarterly basis. n) Maintain proper files and records for the following; Payment vouchers and receipts copies. Cheque book register for various bank accounts Computer back files as per the operating manual Unused fuel coupons Payroll files of the staff. Up-to-date asset register. o) Assist in the project audit by external auditors as well as internal auditors p) Perform other duties as may be assigned by the Director of ICPAC. 4. Responsibility The Accountant will report to the Project s Team Leader. Immediate Supervisor on technical matters will be the head of Finance and Accounts at ICPAC. The Head of Finance and Administration will also provide overall guidance on financial management matters. XI

37 5. Minimum Qualifications a) Bachelor degree in finance management or Accounting from a recognized Institution, b) A minimum of three years work experience in executing functions as accountant in international or regional organizations, c) Knowledge and experiences of computerized accounting systems, d) High level of personal and professional integrity with strong analytical skills and ability to function well in a multi-cultural environment, e) Ability to deal sensitively and build effective working relations with clients and colleagues, 6. Language Skills Proficiency in English Language is required, and French language skill is an asset 7. Functional Responsibility Though the Project Accountant reports to the Project Coordinator, the Accountant will work closely with Finance and Accounting Officer at ICPAC who handles overall project financial management. 8. Duration The duration of the assignment will be four (4) years. 9. Remuneration As per IGAD Project salary scale and policy which is attractive based on applicant s qualification and experience. 10. Work Station ICPAC Headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya. Some missions to IGAD member states might also be necessary. D. National Hydrologist (secondment) 1. Background The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a specialized Institution of the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The mission of ICPAC is to foster climate services and knowledge to enhance community resilience for prosperity in the Greater Horn of Africa Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa region, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. They are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. The Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa - Eastern Africa project has XII

38 been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and numerical prediction capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to improved livelihood in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. 2. The objectives of the project i. To enhance NWP regional capacities including assimilation of high resolution satellite data; ii. To enhance capacities of the NMHS in the Horn of Africa to receive NWP model or to run national-scale NWP model in order to raise relevant warnings of extreme weather events to their respective DRM agencies; iii. Demonstration on the use of severe weather forecasts in risk management (e.g., flood prevention) and expand the use of lesson learned on all the territories through NMHS. iv. Support to the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for integrating DRM aspects. 3. Responsibilities Implement ICPAC related applications of climate products and services needed by the Water Resources and related sectors. Assist the project implementation and conduct gaps and needs assessment and assist the development of regional strategy for enhanced applications of climate products and services in water Resources risks assessment and Management. Assist in the capacity building activities related to applications of severe weather forecast in water resources risks assessment and Management. Assist the project for improving Meteorological and Hydrological Observations and data base management. Assist the development and use of Climate Information Systems in Hydrological Forecasting and Water Resources Management practices including Decision Support Tools (Systems). Prepare periodic progress reports as required by ICPAC. Undertake any other related duties as may be assigned by the Director. 4. Language Skills Proficiency in English Language is required, and French language skill is an asset 5. Functional Responsibility The Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Expert will report o the Project Coordinator 6. Duration The duration of the assignment will be six months on rotational basis. 7. Remuneration As per IGAD Project salary scale and policy which is attractive based on applicant s qualification and XIII

39 experience. 8. Qualifications and experience: At least a Master of Science Degree in Hydrology / Water Resources. At least 3 years of working experience in hydrological / water resources modelling. Good knowledge of computer and applications in hydrology and water resources sector. Familiarity and knowledge of working with the development community, NGOs and other players in the development sector and possessing knowledge and experience of participatory project management approaches will be considered advantage. 9. Competencies: Good knowledge of hydrology related computer programming needs; Ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing; Ability to prepare written reports in a clear, concise and meaningful manner; and Ability to work with minimum supervision. 10. Work Station ICPAC Headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya. Some missions to IGAD member states might also be necessary. E. National Disaster Risk Management Expert (secondment) 1. Background The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) is a specialized Institution of the Inter- Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD). The mission of ICPAC is to foster climate services and knowledge to enhance community resilience for prosperity in the Greater Horn of Africa Hydro-meteorological hazards account for over 90% of disasters of natural origin in Eastern Africa region, impacting most socio-economic sectors and nearly every country. These hazards have several unique characteristics, including being recurrent and trans-boundary in nature; hence regional impacts. They are caused or aggravated by climate and therefore are highly sensitive to climate variability and change. The Satellite and Weather Information for Disaster Resilience in Africa - Eastern Africa project has been prepared with a regional wide coverage to provide the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services with relevant data and numerical prediction capability to facilitate provision of severe weather early warning in order to meet the needs of Disaster Risk Management. It will contribute to improved livelihood in the region through reduction of risks related to severe weather in building resilience and adaptation capacity of the communities. 2. The objectives of the project i. To enhance NWP regional capacities including assimilation of high resolution satellite data; ii. To enhance capacities of the NMHS in the Horn of Africa to receive NWP model or to run national-scale NWP model in order to raise relevant warnings of extreme weather events to their respective DRM agencies; iii. Demonstration on the use of severe weather forecasts in risk management (e.g., flood prevention) and expand the use of lesson learned on all the territories through NMHS. iv. Support to the Regional Climate Outlook Forum for integrating DRM aspects. 3 Responsibilities: XIV

40 Implement ICPAC related applications of climate products and services needed by the Disaster risk and related sectors. Assist the project implementation and conduct gaps and needs assessment and assist the development of regional strategy for enhanced applications of climate products and services in disaster risks assessment and Management. Assist in the capacity building activities related to applications of severe weather forecast in disaster risks assessment and Management. Assist the project for improving Meteorological and Hydrological Observations and data base management. Assist the development and use of Climate Information Systems in disaster early warning and Disaster Risk Management practices including Decision Support Tools (Systems). Prepare periodic progress reports as required by ICPAC. Undertake any other related duties as may be assigned by the Director. 4. Language Skills Proficiency in English Language is required, and French language skill is an asset 5. Functional Responsibility The Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Expert will report to the Project Coordinator 6. Duration The duration of the assignment will be six months on rotational basis. 7. Remuneration As per IGAD Project salary scale and policy which is attractive based on applicant s qualification and experience. 8. Qualifications and experience: Advanced university degree (Masters Degree or equivalent) in social sciences or a subject related to DRM. Minimum 3 years experience in programme management, programme design and formulation is required. Preference will be given to a candidate having practical experience in implementation of disaster risk management programme. Familiarity and knowledge of working with the development community, NGOs and other players in the development sector and possessing knowledge and experience of participatory project management approaches will be considered advantage. 9. Competencies: A good understanding of disaster risk management concepts and approaches and their relationship with sectorial and sustainable development; Highly developed analytical skills, particularly from a multi-disciplinary perspective, with the ability to integrate multi-disciplinary knowledge; Ability to communicate effectively orally and in writing; Ability to prepare written reports in a clear, concise and meaningful manner; and Ability to work with minimum supervision 10. Work Station ICPAC Headquarters in Nairobi, Kenya. Some missions to IGAD member states might also be necessary. XV

41 Annex V: Cost Estimates Estimated budget in Euros Component Description Units Unit cost Total NWP Equipment (purchase, installation and training) for NWP and Satellite Data assimilation at ICPAC 1 55,000 55,000 Operational Support Services and feedback from NMHSs to ACMAD per annum through ICPAC 4 10,000 40,000 DRM R-COF Training Workshop to ICPAC on NWP 4 22,000 88,000 Regional NWP Expert based at ICPAC 48 4, ,680 Regional IT Expert based at ICPAC 48 3, ,272 Secondment of National NWP Experts to ICPAC (2 Experts/Year depending on availability for the country). 48 2,000 96,000 Project Allowance for ICPAC Team Leader. 12 1,800 21,600 Project Accountant 8 3,339 26,712 NWP Sub total 699,264 Pilot demonstration of severe weather forecasts use in flood prone areas (Upgrading existing flood monitoring systems, applying NWP for flood EWS, and on field training of NMHSs). (EU85, 000/ Site for Equipment, EU182, 050/Site for Training and Capacity Building and EU10, 000/Site for Consultant). Awareness Raising, Education and Capacity Building of 1 272, ,798 Stakeholders/Country: Up-scaling severe weather demonstration in the Member States 0 30,000 0 Secondment of National Hydrologist at ICPAC (2 Experts/Year) ,000 Secondment of National DRM at ICPAC (2 Experts/Year) ,000 Project Accountant ,712 Project Allowance for ICPAC Team Leader DRM Sub total 515,510 Regional Results Dissemination Workshops: Support to RCOF Process (3 GHACOFs per year) 3 130, ,000 Project Allowance for ICPAC Team Leader. 12 1,800 21,600 NMHSs R-COF Sub total 411,600 Equipment (purchase, installation and training) for NWP and Satellite Data assimilation at NMHS), 10 countries excluding Tanzania Training at ICPAC for national capacities (NMHS) on NWP model output for DRM (3 Workshops/Year) 8 25, ,000 Outreach (Communication and Project Visibility) for 10 Countries and ICPAC Except Tanzania. 5 10,000 50,000 Technical Back Stopping/Service Support (Experts/Facilitation through Workshops) to NMHS at national level to exploit NWP and to link with DRM agencies at NMHSs 5 19,000 95,000 XVI

42 Component Description Units Unit cost Total Coord / Project Allowance for ICPAC Team Leader. 12 1,800 21,600 Project Accountant ,712 NMHs Sub Total 543,312 TA for Mid Term and Final Evaluation (Regional Expert). 2 10,000 20,000 Projmgt Audit 4 10,000 40,000 Project Coordination and Administration (travel and other operational expenses) 4 30, ,000 Coordination/Project Management Subtotal 180,000 Components Sub Total 2,349,686 Contingency (5%) 117, TOTAL 2,801,688 ICPAC in kind contribution 175,200 GRAND TOTAL 2,642, Annex-VI: - Project Management Structure XVII

43 VI a: ICPAC Steering Committee The Steering Committee shall consist of the following: a. Heads of Meteorological Services in Member States of ICPAC; b. Two IGAD Directors namely: the Directors of Agriculture and Environment Division, and Administration and Finance Division; c. A representative of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO); and d. Any other representative as may be designated by the Steering Committee when required. The Director of the Centre shall be the Secretary to the Steering Committee. The Steering Committee shall perform the following functions: d. Recommend the programme of activities for the Centre; e. Draw up internal regulations pertaining to the activities of the Centre; f. Propose the designation of Cooperating Partners and submit such designation for approval to the Executive Secretary; g. Recommend the conclusion of Memoranda of Understanding with Cooperating Partners; h. Assist the IGAD Secretariat in sourcing funds for the Centre; i. Assist the Director in drawing up the budget and business plan of the Centre; and j. Review progress on the activities of the Centre including projects. The Steering Committee shall meet at least once a year. However, the Director, in consultation with the Executive Secretary, may convene an extra-ordinary meeting if the situation so requires. The Steering Committee shall adopt the rules of procedure governing meetings of IGAD policy organs. At the end of each of its meetings, the Steering Committee shall adopt its report which shall be submitted to the IGAD policy organs through the Executive Secretary. Annex VI b: Schematic Structure of PIU XVIII

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