W O R L D M E T E O R O L O G I C A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N. SEVENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING.

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1 W O R L D M E T E O R O L O G I C A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N SEVENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING Citeko, Indonesia 12 to 15 November 2012 Final Report

2 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING 1.1 Opening of the Meeting At the kind invitation of the Government of Indonesia, the Seventh Tropical Cyclone (TC) RSMCs/TCWCs Technical Coordination Meeting (TCM-7) was held in Citeko, Indonesia from 12 to 15 November The opening ceremony commenced at 1000 hours on Monday, 12 November 2012 at the Multi-Purpose Complex Building of the Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) in Citeko Dr Sri Woro B. Harijono, Director-General of the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency, and Permanent Representative of Indonesia with WMO extended a warm welcome to the participants of the meeting. Dr Harijono stressed that the modern society shows its utmost concern over the increasing impact of natural disasters and pays its particular attention to tropical cyclones. Noting the recent major disasters caused by tropical cyclones in many parts of the world, Dr Harijono underlined the importance of the internationally coordinated action to enhance the warning services and, in this regard, expressed her expectation that the present meeting will come up with concrete majors to discharge its responsibilities for promoting the coordinated actions to reduce the risk of tropical cyclone disasters Speaking on behalf of Mr Michel Jarraud, Secretary-General of WMO, Mr Koji Kuroiwa, Chief of Tropical Cyclone Programme Division, expressed his deep appreciation to the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency for hosting the seventh TC RSMCs/TCWCs Technical Coordination Meeting. Mr Kuroiwa emphasized that the regional TC warning networks, which are led by the RSMCs and TCWCs, are now serving as key platforms for developing multi-hazard early warning systems in the respective regions. Referring to the extraordinary session of the WMO Congress, which reiterated the serious concern of the world society about the increasing impact of severe weathers, Mr Kuroiwa stressed the need for a globally unified, standardized and more user-friendly tropical cyclone forecasting services The Meeting was attended by 14 participants, comprising the representatives of RSMCs Honolulu, La Réunion, Nadi, New Delhi and Tokyo and TCWCs Brisbane, Darwin, Jakarta, Perth, Port Moresby and Wellington, invited experts from Australia and Hong Kong, China, and observers from International Civil Aviation Organization and National Climatic Data Center of NOAA. The list of the participants is given in Appendix I. It should be noted that the Director of RSMC Miami and the experts of WMO Public Weather Services Programme participated in the Meeting remotely by videoconference on relevant agenda items. 1.2 Election of the Chairman and Vice-chairman Dr Mulyono Prabowo (Indonesia) and Mr Mike Bergin (Australia) were elected as Chairman and Vice-chairman, respectively. 1.3 Adoption of the agenda The Meeting made small modifications to the provisional agenda and adopted it as shown in Appendix II. 1.4 Working arrangements The Meeting agreed on the details of the organization of its work, including working hours. 2. FOLLOW-UP ACTION ON THE SIXTH TC RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING - 1 -

3 The Meeting reviewed the recommendations of the Sixth TC RSMCs/TCWCs Technical Coordination Meeting (TCM-6), particularly those relevant to the works to be done by the Meeting and the follow-up actions taken. 2.1 Definition of maximum sustained wind speed of tropical cyclones The Meeting recalled that at TCM-6 it endorsed the WMO Wind Averaging Study submitted by Systems Engineering Australia (SEA) with Dr Bruce Harper as the leading expert, which provides guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in tropical cyclone conditions. Accordingly, it was published by WMO in August 2010 as WMO/TD-No.1555 and distributed to all the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services belonging to the five regional tropical cyclone committees From the comments from the members, however, the Meeting noted that none of the RSMCs or TCWCs has yet to engage itself in applying the recommended conversion factors to its operational service. Considering that the summary of the study was also incorporated in all the regional Operational Plans/Manual according to the TCM-6 consensus, the Meeting recognized such situation as a matter of serious concern. There is an apparent hiatus between the original intention of the Meeting made at TCM-4 in 2002 and the current reality As the sole survivor of the Working Group on Wind Conversion Factors, which was established at TCM-4 to supervise the process and review the SEA study report, Mr Philippe Caroff of RSMC La Reunion suggested that, while the delegates of RSMCs and TCWCs had indeed endorsed the excellent scientific work done by Dr Harper et al. and agreed to include its summary in the Operational Plans/Manual, most of them had probably regarded it as just an indication of the recommended best practice in terms of wind conversions. There may have been a slight misunderstanding due to a subtle difference between endorsing and adopting RSMC La Reunion also explained the reason why the center has been reluctant to apply the new conversion factors recommended in the report so far. He stressed that there is serious concern that the adoption of 0.93 in converting between 1-min and 10-min average winds would bias the maximum storm intensities towards unrealistically high values, because RSMC La Reunion once shifted its conversion factor from 0.8 to 0.88 in 1999 which resulted in 10% increase in the maximum wind speeds. He further emphasized that the main problem behind this is that we have no certainty about the validity of the correspondence we use between the Dvorak current intensities and the maximum sustained winds. This issue should have precedence of the issue of converting between 1-min and 10- min average winds. The fact is that, due to the lack of sufficient ground-truth observations to validate the winds derived from the Dvorak in our basin, we have no idea of how our intensity estimates are close to (or far from) the reality or biased toward high (or low) RSMC La Reunion suggested further that, from a formal point of view, before the RSMC applied a new conversion factor (and before the inclusion of the SEA s summary in our Operational Plan), the change of the practices should have been fully discussed and finally adopted by the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee. TCWC Wellington also presented a similar perspective on this matter for RA V. Taking special note of these comment, the WMO Secretariat showed its view that discussions on the new wind conversion factor should be continued within the regional TC Committees Mr Andrew Burton, invited expert from Australia, pointed out that change of the conversion factor (from 0.88 to 0.93) may artificially increase the number of tropical cyclones (e.g. a tropical depression may become a tropical cyclone as a result of an increase of its maximum winds to reach gale force winds) with the induced implication of introducing a step function in the databases (unless re-analysing all past systems and tropical depressions and modifying the databases). He also added that we should not focus only on the

4 conversion factor issue. In the SEA report, there are many other gust factors proposed depending on the considered exposure. And these gust factors are also important since when we communicate with the media and the general public, we talk about expected maximum gusts RSMC Honolulu, discussed that while the Meeting is focusing the 5% modification of the maximum winds, the uncertainties in the satellite Dvorak analyses and CIwinds Dvorak correspondence are probably much larger and the same for the differences between the analyses done by the different agencies/centers. Dr Howard Diamond, representative of NCDC, underlined that from a climatological point of view and for many users (especially researchers), it is most important that consistent procedures and criteria are applied on a global basis The Meeting finally reached the consensus that, although there is no reason to go against the work done by B. Harper et al. from an academic or theoretical perspective and not recognize it as a base line, from a practical aspect its operational application would face many problems. Further, the Meeting agreed that, this issue is not significant for day-to-day operations and warnings but is a key challenge for best-tracking and TC-related databases. For lack of standardization, it was also acknowledged that an inventory of operational practices of different centers would be important and thus the practices of at least RSMCs and TCWCs should be fully documented. 2.2 Collaboration with Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) Mr Howard Diamond, representative of the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of NOAA, made a presentation on IBTrACS as a follow-up to what was presented at TCM-6. It outlined the history and background, need for, goals, and accomplishments by the IBTrACS program in developing this as a tool in support of the WMO/TCP for use by all TC RSMCs and TCWCs. The IBTrACS effort began in late-2007 as a project under the auspices of the World Data Center for Meteorology, which is housed at NCDC, and has evolved and progressed significantly since then. A summary of the presentation is given in Appendix III The Meeting felt concern regarding several issues. First, in his presentation, Mr Diamond talked about the Cyclone Center which is a citizen science project looking at working to have ordinary citizens interested in science analyze old satellite imagery to then answer questions regarding Dvorak analysis. The primary concerns centered on the Quality Controle (QC) of data and the criteria used. It turns out that the Cyclone Center won't be part of IBTrACS any time soon. That effort should produce a dataset (that will be peer-reviewed) that will be like another piece of information, but right now there is no plan to include directly with IBTrACS. Only much later if the data are deemed to be good and complete, only then would IBTrACS consider that data for inclusion Another issue for consideration was the automated reanalysis of best tracks. The CIMMS at the University of Wisconsin have recently completed a reprocessing of the satellite period of record using the Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) and HURSAT. This was alluded to at the combined IBTrACS/IWSATC workshop in 2011, but it was just starting. Presently, CIMMS is analyzing the results in terms of climate, but it certainly could provide input for a reanalysis for participating/interested basins. So, one question is how to provide the output of the ADT to other basins for consideration in reanalysis. It could become part of IBTrACS, or it could be kept as a separate dataset at NCDC as an offshoot of HURSAT There was some concern expressed about the resources at NCDC to continue IBTrACS, and Mr Diamond indicated that this was not a problem. While the program does not have a lot of monetary resources in terms of massive development or a lot of travel support the program, it does have high-level management support and commitment to continue the work for the foreseeable future, as well as to provide some limited travel support for a future IBTrACS-related workshop as was done in

5 2.2.5 Also discussed was the need for and timing of a 3rd IBTrACS workshop, and there was general agreement that doing another joint IBTrACS/IWSATC workshop as was done in April 2011 would be good. Given the timing of things, while 2014 will be a busy one for meetings, looking at the April/May 2014 timeframe would probably be a good one, and a lot of this will depend on what the WMO/TCP can accommodate. IBTrACS could provide some incremental travel support as was done in As a follow-up to the discussion on the wind-conversion factors at the previous agenda, there was a discussion about the role that IBTrACS could play in aiding this issue. Mr Andrew Barton brought up the idea of centers providing their metadata to IBTrACS, and using this in conjunction with the Harper et al (2010) study, IBTrACS could take this information and work to produce a standardized and homogenized wind averaged dataset that could be used by everyone, and this also would not require the centers to change their data holdings. This could be an excellent topic at a combined IBTrACS/IWSATC workshop in IBTrACS could work with all the centers to run tests for consistency, etc The Meeting recalled that at TCM-6 there was a discussion for there to be a Best Tracks panel as part of the WMO/TCP. This is still something that seemed to be desired by people, and as such, the IBTrACS will provide a draft Terms of Reference to TCP RSMC Tokyo brought up a very interesting effort that they are involved in with reanalyzing their Dvorak CI-numbers from 1981-present, and also noted that they are working with CMA, HKO and JTWC on exchanging best track data including Dvorak CInumbers to begin working on a comparison across the western North Pacific within the framework of the Typhoon Committee. This data could be made available to any center involved in reanalysis work The Meeting felt that the session on IBTrACS was quite informative and engendered a good bit of discussion. The level of interest in what IBTrACS is doing was quite high, and it is believed that this continued interest and involvement will keep this activity relevant and a tool for all Centers and the WMO/TCP to use. 2.3 Tropical Cyclone Advisory for international civil aviation and coordination with WAFCs Mr Greg Brock, representative of ICAO, presented an overview of the requirements of international air navigation for information on the current and forecast position (and horizontal and vertical extent) of tropical cyclones, issued by Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centers (TCACs) in the form of TC advisory information (Annex 3, 3.7 and Appendix 2 refer) The Meeting was reminded that Amendment 75 to Annex 3 (applicable November 2010) had introduced provisions with respect to the issuance of TC advisory information in a graphical format (specifically BUFR code form or PNG chart form), complementing the existing text-based TC advisory. ICAO highlighted the findings of a 2011/12 investigation into the availability of graphical TC advisories, conducted in response to SADISOPSG Conclusion 16/ The investigation had determined that only two of the seven TCACs were, as of March 2012, in a position to issue graphical TC advisory information in keeping with the ICAO requirement (specifically in PNG chart form) although only one of these TCACs was making the information internationally available with many of the remaining TCACs expressing an intention to implement the PNG chart form in the coming years (see Appendix IV). Several of the TCACs yet to implement the graphical TC advisory outlined their latest implementation plans. Given the continued lack of suitable BUFR code tables in WMO provisions, as was similarly reported at TCM-6, the TCACs were again encouraged to urgently implement the PNG chart form for the graphical TC advisories as an intermediate - 4 -

6 solution, and to ensure their availability at the uplink station for SADIS through a bi-lateral arrangement between the TCAC Provider State concerned and the SADIS Provider State The Meeting was further reminded of a 2008/2009 trial of a web-based chat room facility hosted by WAFC Washington with a view to harmonizing the content of WAFS significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts on tropical cyclones issued by the two WAFCs with the TC advisory information issued by the TCACs. The ICAO Observer had reported the outcome of the trial to TCM-6. Involvement of the TCAC forecasters in the chat room facility, during respective TC seasons, had commenced in 2009 but in the years since the level of TCAC involvement had reduced according to the WAFC management report presented to the WAFSOPSG/7 meeting in Consequently, the ICAO Observer took the opportunity to re-emphasize the benefits to be gained from closer WAFC-TCAC coordination via the web-based facility in particular the ability for the forecasters to interact and confirm the name(s), position(s) and expected evolution(s) of TCs that have developed or that may develop during the next 24 hours. The TCACs were reminded of the times when the chat room facility was open for coordination and the point of contact at WAFC Washington for further assistance/information The opportunity was also taken to familiarize the TCACs with trends in the provision of meteorological service for international air navigation, in particular the proposed amendment to Annex 3 (Amendment 76 applicable November 2013) which will introduce, as an enabling clause, the exchange of OPMET information (specifically METAR/SPECI, TAF and SIGMET) in a digital form by States in a position to do so, in support of the future system-wide information management environment of the global air traffic management system. The TCACs were invited to note that the future availability of other types of meteorological information including TC advisories and volcanic ash advisories in a digital form was envisaged, although there were currently no definitive timeframes. Nonetheless, in view of the planned ICAO Meteorology Divisional Meeting conjoint with WMO s CAeM-XV in July 2014 which will develop proposed Amendment 77 to Annex 3 (applicable November 2016) the TCACs were invited to note that the availability of TC advisories in digital form could be realized as an ICAO requirement as early Amendment Acknowledging the earlier remarks relating to graphical TC advisories in BUFR code form and PNG chart form, and the highlighted digital exchange developments, the TCACs were again encouraged to concentrate efforts in making the PNG chart form TC advisories available as an interim solution, at least until such time as the TC advisories in digital form become an established ICAO requirement. 2.4 IWTC-7 recommendations The Meeting noted that wide-ranging recommendations arose from the Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-7) which was held in La Réunion, France, from 15 to 20 November It underlined the establishment of expert groups for the four major topics; 1) TC Structure and Intensity Change, 2) Tropical Cyclone Formation and Extra-tropical Transition, 3) Tropical Cyclones and Climate, and 4) Disaster risks, mitigation, warning systems and socio-economic impacts Among the recommendations, the Meeting reviewed the progress that has been made in the implementation of selected recommendations that are relevant to WMO Programmes. The Meeting noted with satisfaction that actions had already been taken or planned to be taken by the WMO Programmes concerned for all the recommendations as shown in the IWTC-7 action sheet (see Appendix V) The Meeting recognized that the IWTC series has substantially enhanced the interaction between forecasters and researchers and has produced significant outcomes in the form of major recommendations, research programmes and reference books. The Meeting strongly recommended that the series be continued

7 3. REPORT ON CURRENT AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES 3.1 Implementation of the TCP including Guidance from the WMO Congress and Executive Council On reviewing the whole range of activities being conducted under the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP), the Meeting noted with satisfaction the achievements and progress accomplished in both the general and the regional components of the Programme since the sixth technical coordination meeting with special mention on the activities conducted under the auspices of the five regional tropical cyclone committees and the regions centers, i.e. RSMCs and TCWCs The Meeting was informed by the WMO Secretariat that the Executive Council, at its 64th session in June 2012, gave following guidance to TCP: Close collaborations between TCP and other WMO Programmes based on relevant WMO projects such as SWFDP and CIFDP. Extended use of ensemble techniques including multi-model consensus forecasting and ensemble-based probabilistic guidance. More objective TC analyses as recommended by IWSATC and establishment of TC Forecaster Website. Implementation of Common Alert Protocol (CAP) in TC warnings and change of the format of the advisories for aviation from text to graphic The Meeting was also briefed about the TCP activities during the inter-sessional period as follows: - Capacity Development TCP/PWS joint training courses/workshops on TC Forecasting and Public Weather Service were held for RA I TCC (La Reunion, November 2010), RA IV Hurricane Committee (USA, March 2011 & March 2012) and RA V TCC (Australia, September 2011), and attachment trainings were for Panel on Tropical Cyclones (RSMC New Delhi, February 2010 & February 2011) and for the Typhoon Committee (RSMC Tokyo, July 2010 & July 2011). - Support to Operational Forecasting Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting has been updated toward publication during The new Guide will be mainly Web-based for widespread access by forecasters and researchers around the globe and a limited number of hard copies will be distributed to the WMO Members and WMO Regional Training Centres (RTCs) concerned. The Guide is expected to achieve synergetic effect with the TC Forecaster Website to be hosted by Hong Kong, China. - Storm Surge Watch Scheme TCP collaborated with WMO/IOC Joint Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM) to organize the 6th Storm Surge Workshop in the Dominican Republic for the RA IV Hurricane Committee Members in February It also held the 7th Storm Surge Workshop in Macao, China for the Typhoon Committee Members in October 2011 in cooperation with Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau of Macao and the Typhoon Committee. - Application of Research and Development The first WMO International Workshop on the Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC) was organized in Honolulu, Hawaii, USA from 13 to 16 April 2011 in collaboration with the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and the - 6 -

8 National Climatic Data Center of NOAA (NCDC). It was held in conjunction with the 2nd workshop of the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) which is run by NCDC. Linking with producing a globally-unified best track dataset, IWSATC set out to promote the sharing of expertise in satellite analysis of tropical cyclones between forecasters and researchers and helped facilitate their discussions on its future improvement The Meeting noted with pleasure that the TC Forecaster Website (TCFW) is being developed by Hong Kong, China, which agreed to host the Website, and will be launched before the start of 2012/2013 cyclone season. The Website is aimed to assist forecasters in their operational forecasting of tropical cyclones. It will function as a portal to various websites offering data/products of TC analyses and forecasts and will also provide research outcomes and training materials, thus serving as a comprehensive source of information for TC forecasters. In view of the practical utility of TCFW to operational forecasters, the Meeting requested the WMO Secretariat to put forward TCFW to the NMHSs concerned in many occasions including training courses/workshops. It also urged WMO Secretariat to facilitate the update process for the Global Guide in view of its best synergy with TCTF (see agenda item 4.4) The Meeting took note of the effectiveness of application of CAP to the tropical cyclone warning services. In this regard, the WMO Secretariat drew its attention to the JMA s experimental dissemination of CAP-based TC advisories and showed the expectation that an intensively discussion would be conducted on this subject under the agenda item Recent and Current Activities of the TC RSMCs and TCWCs Representatives of the RSMCs and TCWCs made presentations on the current technical and operational aspects of monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones at their centres and on other topics including training and research. Their presentation files were posted on the WMO/TCP website at and the activity reports submitted by RSMCs Miami, New Delhi, Ra Leunion and Tokyo and TCWC Port Moresby are given in Appendix VI RSMC Honolulu reviewed the 2010, 2011 and 2012 tropical cyclone seasons of the Central Pacific. Overall, storm activities were affected by La Nina which kept the basin relatively cool from 2010 through early 2012 and thus limited the number of storm occurrences over the period. It also gave the seasonal reviews of the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific for these years on behalf of RSMC Miami. The Meeting was informed of the mission and the vision of the National Weather Service to protect the life and property from weather hazards and the actions actually being taken to enhance community resilience and warning systems in Hawaii RSMC La Reunion presented highlights of the tropical cyclone activities during the inter-sessional period in the Southwest Indian Ocean. Careful consideration was given to the season where the storms were second-least active in the last fifty years. Concerning the forecasting system, highlighted were the recent operational developments including the multiple upgrades of cyclone module of the Synergie workstation, visualization of the EPS outputs on the workstation, development of a semi-automatic generation and dissemination system of advisories, and implementation of cones of uncertainty. The Meeting was also informed of the Center s contribution to SWFDP for the Southern Africa and the Storm Surge Watch Scheme for RA I. The Meeting recommended the TCACs concerned the provision of TC Advisories in graphical format like La Reunion has started to do as an ICAO/TCAC RSMC Nadi reviewed the cyclone seasons in the South Pacific in conjunction with the performance of its TC Season Outlook. It emphasized that the season was the least active with the occurrence of only three tropical cyclones, which is consistent with the report of RSMC La Reunion. The Center also called the attention of the Meeting that - 7 -

9 RSMC Nadi has been providing the 72-hour track forecast with a steady improvement since season. Meantime, the Meeting noted that capacity building has become as an urgent issue for the Center to carry out its function properly and to meet the increasing needs of the public and the media. Pursuant to the decision of the government, the Center is now undertaking the new responsibility for hydrological services in flood forecasting. In response to the inquiry from TCWC Wellington, RSMC Nadi detailed its plan to enhance the local office in Suva as the back-up of its entire services except for TCWC responsibilities which still will be carried out by Wellington as per the Operation Plan for RAV Tropical Cyclone Committee RSMC New Delhi outlined its responsibilities as RSMC and TCAC and described also the national responsibilities as Meteorological Department. The Center has recently set up a fully automated forecasting environment facility with modern graphical and GIS applications which allowed for more systematical analysis and prediction of tropical cyclones. Track forecast skills have been improved for the past ten years and, particularly, those for the last two years were significant and drew the attention of the Meeting. The Center now places a high priority on strengthening the linkage with disaster management authorities and the public education and outreach. It also identifies the improvement of data assimilation and ensemble prediction as a key challenge. As plans for the future, the Center highlighted several actions including enhancement of storm surge forecast and seasonal forecast, a forecast demonstration project on land falling cyclones, linkage with SWFDP for South Asia, and development of RSMC Website RSMC Tokyo gave the Meeting a full picture of its RSMC services including the products disseminated via the GTS and the Internet, publication, training, and coordination with the NMHSs in its responsible area NW Pacific. It also informed the Meeting of details of the upgrade of JMA s super computer system which was complete in June 2012 and the dissemination of storm surge forecasts suitable for the Typhoon Committee region which was started in June SATAID continued to be a useful tool for the NMHSs in TC analysis and forecasting not only in the NW Pacific but also in other basins. Training on the use of SATAID has been conducted by the RSMC Tokyo. Utilizing the cloud grid information, an objective cloud product operationally prepared by RSMC Tokyo for the analysis of existing CB areas, RSMC Tokyo presented a plan to deliver graphical TC advisories in a few years. It also informed the currently developing objective tropical cyclone satellite analysis using MTSAT called Cloud grid information objective Dvorak analysis (CLOUD) and the plan to introduce it into operation in The Meeting gave great attention to the experimental TC advisory in CAP format which was implemented as from November 2012 (see paragraph 4.6.5). RSMC Tokyo hosts the WMO North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project and provides TIGGE ensemble forecasts to the Members of the Typhoon Committee. It also serves as a regional center for the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in Southeast Asia (SWFDP-SeA) Representing the TCWCs in Australia (Perth, Brisbane and Darwin), Mr Mike Bergin provided the Meeting with an activity report of the TCWCs. He informed the Meeting that the TCWC Jakarta took charge of the northern part of the TCWC Darwin s responsible area as from 1 November 2010 (see paragraph 3.2.9). Mr Bergin reviewed the tropical cyclone activities in the Australian region and emphasised that the and seasons were characterised by La Niña climatological conditions. Although La Niña is usually a precursor for above-average cyclone activity in the Australian region, there were ten named tropical cyclones in 2010/11 and seven in 2011/12 both of which were below the climatological average of twelve in the region. Nevertheless, damage from Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi was extremely serious in Queensland in February The Meeting also took notice of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS), a new system of the Bureau to provide sophisticated NWP data to users. ACCESS was launched in August Within this NWP system the Bureau continues to develop the tropical cyclone forecasting model ACCESS-TC. Also the software package TC Module continues to evolve and now enables forecasters from one TCWC to contribute to the assessment and - 8 -

10 forecasting of cyclones outside their area of responsibility. This has resulted in a more flexible and efficient operation of the three Australian TCWCs TCWC Wellington discussed its activities together with the background of its information services. One of the important roles of TCWC Wellington is that Wellington should assume temporary responsibility for the TCWC functions in RSMC Nadi's area of responsibility. Moreover, as New Zealand (NZ) is responsible for the ICAO s Flight Information Region (FIR) which is located within the RSMC Nadi s area, a close coordination between Wellington and Nadi is ensured. Wellington also acts as lead RSMC in Severe Weather Forecasting and Disaster risk reduction Demonstration Project (SWFDDP) in RA V. In this regard, the Meeting noted that various SWDDP guidance are provided from Wellington and that fund raising is considered as a key challenge for development of SWFDDP website and training participating countries. The Meeting also noted that, as a result of the Christchurch earthquakes (February 2011), the Alternative Forecasting Centre (AFC) was set up in Paraparaumu in July If the AFC was ever activated, Wellington s TCWC functions would be transferred to TCWC Brisbane of Australia TCWC Jakarta briefed the Meeting on the background to inauguration of the TCWC service. After the recommendation of RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee at its 11 th session in 2006, BMKG completed the installation of TCWC facilities in 2007 and launched the TCWC Jakarta before the 2007/2008 cyclone season. In 2010, the TCWC extended its area of responsibility to take over the northern part of the TCWC Darwin s. In parallel, operational systems were significantly strengthened including the data processing & forecasting system, the radar network consisting of 27 radars (as of 2012), and the backup system at Denpasar which was established in Capacity development was also intensified through training courses and workshops. Recently, BMKG hosted the RA V Training Course on Satellite Applications for Meteorology and Climatology in September 2011 and organized the Workshop on TC Analysis and Forecasting in July 2011 and the Training on Satellite Data Interpretation in May 2012 in Jakarta and Citeko, respectively TCWC Port Moresby specified its area of responsibility and underlined the Solomon Sea and the Coral Sea as the areas of high strategic importance requiring careful monitoring. Port Moresby maintains close contact with TCWC Brisbane to ensure the consistency in forecasting and warning between the two centers. It also acquires NWP products from ACESS of BoM and has installed TC Module for its operational forecasting but still needs training in the use of software modules. Currently, Port Moresby issues TC Watch (6 hourly), TC Warnings (3 hourly) and Strong Wind & Gale Warnings (6 hourly) and provide a daily Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin to National Disaster Centre. It also issues Tropical Cyclone Alert when a storm is forecasted to develop into a Tropical Cyclone and threaten Papua New Guinea within 18 hours, and Flash Tropical Cyclone Warning when the Tropical Cyclone develops and threatens Port Moresby within 6 hours. Finally, TCWC Port Moresby stressed that capacity development has been the urgent priority to improve the quality and efficiency of their services. 4. COORDINATION 4.1 Functions and responsibilities of TC RSMCs and TCWCs The Meeting was informed by the WMO Secretariat that the Manual on the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS; WMO-No. 485) is being updated by the Implementation and Coordination Team of DPFS/OPAG. The updated Manual will be submitted to the 14 th Extraordinary Session the WMO/CBS in 2014 for approval. In this regard, it is recommended that the terms of reference (ToRs) of both the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres (RSMCs) and the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) should be clearly described in the Manual, apart from the regional tropical cyclone committees agreements. The draft ToRs were prepared by WMO/TCP and presented to TCM-7 for review and finalization before proposal to the WMO/DPFS

11 4.1.2 RSMC La Réunion inquired about the relationship between the Manual and the WMO Technical Document (WMO/TD-No.1045, Report No.TCP-44, 2001) entitled Specialized Centres Provide Up-to-date Tropical Cyclone, Hurricane, Typhoon Advisories that details the functions and responsibilities of Tropical Cyclones RSMCs, TCWCs and National Meteorological Services, which could serve as the basis for editing the ToRs of the GDPFS Manual. The WMO Secretariat clarified that there should indeed be consistency between all the WMO documents. However, the GDPFS Manual has a different status than the Technical Document as it being approved by the CBS. Also, activities and responsibilities of RSMCs are not fully described in the current Manual and there is no reference to TCWCs The Meeting carefully reviewed the draft ToRs proposed by the WMO Secretariat taking into consideration the RSMC Tokyo s comment which had been submitted to the present session. The Meeting noted that the text is overall satisfactory but found that some modifications are necessary in the description of RSMCs/TCWCs responsibilities. It also agreed to include their linkage with the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrAC) and the responsibilities of Meteorological Watch Offices for issuing SIGMET in terms of Tropical Cyclone Advisory arrangement with ICAO. The Meeting adopted the ToRs of RSMCs and TCWCs as shown in the Appendix VII to be proposed to WMO/DPFS. 4.2 Requirements for operational forecasts/advisories, watches and warnings The Meeting reviewed the meteorological satellite observations as the space-based component of the WMO Integrated Global Observing System (WIGOS). It took particular note of the Observing Systems Capability Analysis and Review Tool (OSCAR), the online resource of WMO where comprehensive information on the current status and future plans of satellites is provided The Meeting valued the considerable utility of the new on-line tool OSCAR to operational TC forecasting as it serves as a useful resource for forecasters to keep abreast of the current and future development of the satellite programmes. In view of the requirements for the space-based component of WIGOS, the Meeting made the following recommendations for the use of satellite data; 4.3 Training i) A better understanding of the mid-tropopshere is always helpful to an analyst when trying to assess the merit of one disturbance over another in the formation of a tropical cyclone. An enhanced capability to monitor and diagnose the mid-troposphere is highly sought after by the tropical cyclone community. ii) Near surface wind vectors have become an essential tool for an analyst to understand the wind distribution around a tropical cyclone which would otherwise be largely unknown. If there was anyway geostationary meteorological satellites could be equipped with scatterometers to give a continuous coverage of near surface wind vectors that would be appreciated by the tropical cyclone and marine communities. iii) The free exchange of satellite data has proved a tremendous boon to all areas of meteorology, in particular the monitoring of tropical cyclones and websites like the NRL portal are testament to that. In this regard, passive microwave imagery has provided great benefits to tropical cyclone meteorologists and access to frequent, high resolution passive microwave imagery would serve to enhance this position even more The Meeting noted that various trainings and workshops have been conducted by TCP since TCM-6 for building capacity of the operational forecasters, ranging from the attachment trainings with limited number of participants and group training courses for a

12 entire region to the workshops for research & development to develop the synergy between forecasters and researchers In regard to the attachment training at operational centers, RSMC Honolulu informed the Meeting that NOAA is currently evaluating the Pacific Desk. Before it will announce the final decision early 2013, NOAA may consider any recommendations from TCM. The Meeting noted that NOAA is also active in organizing trainings for users as demonstrated by the Training Workshop on Hurricane Preparedness for Decision Makers in Guam in April 2013 which has the similar objectives as with the RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Preparedness Course The Meeting shared a common view that capacity building should continue to be pursued by TCP as its primary activity and that the least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the tropical cyclone basins should remain major targets. Taking into consideration the limited resources of the WMO Secretariat as well as host countries of the trainings, the Meeting recommended the active utilization of the distance learning tools including remote lectures and relevant websites Support to operational forecasters Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting The WMO Secretariat presented the current status of the update of WMO Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting which has been led by Mr Chip Guard (US NOAA/NWS). The new Global Guide will provide comprehensive guidance on tropical cyclone forecasting from a multi-hazard point of view. It will be web-based with a view to timely update and easier access. The Guide is also expected to achieve synergetic effect with the TC Forecaster Website to be hosted by Hong Kong, China The Meeting noted that the works have continued toward its publication during However, progress has been slow and completed chapters are now expected to be available for review by the end of RSMC La Reunion asked if all RSMCs and TCWCs would be able to review and suggest changes before the final version is settled upon. In response, WMO Secretariat confirmed that each RSMC and TCWC will have the opportunity for review before finalization The WMO Secretariat expressed its expectation that the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) would develop and host the online version of the Global Guide when completed. RSMC Honolulu committed personnel resources to help create the web-based version of the guide when completed to assist BoM if desired. The Meeting agreed to send words of encouragement to Mr Chip Guard WMO/TCP Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Website The Meeting noted that WMO Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Website (TCFW) has been developed by the Tropical Cyclone Programme with a view to serving as a platform to guide operational forecasters of tropical cyclones to a variety of sources of information which are useful for operational monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclones The Meeting was informed that, in December 2011, Hong Kong, China kindly accepted the request of WMO to host the website. Contents of TCFW covers wide ranges of topics such as Observation and product data, Advisory and warning centre, Traning material, WMO Technical Publication, TC research, TC Data archive and extreme weather event discussion. It also has been a plan that TCFW will be linked with the Global Guide on tropical cyclone

13 The Meeting also noted that TCFW is planned to be launched before the 2012/2013 tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere. A tentative version of the website is accessible at; WMO Secretariat encouraged the RSMCs and TCWCs to visit the website and provide their comment to WMO/TCP. 4.5 Recommendations of International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC) At the invitation of the WMO Secretariat, Mr Andrew Burton, Co-chair of the International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC), invited the Meeting to review the outcomes and recommendations of IWSATC and consider follow up action for the improvement of satellite analysis at regional and national centers The Meeting noted the value of the first IWSATC in establishing a dialogue between the Centres that had not only resulted in greater understanding of differences in satellite analysis procedures, but had in some cases led to changes in agency procedures; which it is hoped will bring greater uniformity TCWC Wellington reported that as a result of IWSATC RSMC Nadi and TCWC Wellington had established improved data exchange processes at hand-over of responsibility for oceanic warnings Mr Andrew Burton reported that following IWSATC the Chinese Meteorological Agency (CMA) had begun a process of transition from a simplified Dvorak technique to the standard Dvorak technique. The simplified technique previously employed at CMA was a significant departure from the standard Dvorak technique. Mr Burton congratulated CMA on embarking on this change process; which will help bring greater uniformity to analysis procedures in the region Mr Howard Diamond, representing the IBTrACS, noted the value of IWSATC in assisting with the normalisation of the best track data held under IBTrACS stewardship The Meeting recognised that although progress had been made at the inaugural IWSATC, further workshops would provide the following benefits: (a) Further document contemporary and historical inter-agency differences in the satellite analysis of tropical cyclones (b) Continue the inter-agency dialogue to improve consistency in the future. (c) Continue the dialogue between operational forecasters and developers of objective analysis aids, with an emphasis on developing training materials that help forecasters add value by blending the available guidance in a way that recognises the strengths and weaknesses of each component The Meeting recommended that the WMO secretariat, the co-chairs of IWSATC and a representative of IBTrACS examine the feasibility of holding another joint IWSATC/IBTrACS workshop to continue the dialogue 4.6 Application of Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) to TC warnings At the invitation of the WMO Secretariat, Mr Armstrong Cheng of the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO), the coordinator of the WMO s Severe Weather Information Centre (SWIC) website, delivered a presentation about the application of the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) to TC warnings in particular TC advisories. Experts in CAP, Eliot Christian and Elysa Jones, also joined the discussion through Skype conference

14 4.6.2 The Meeting noted that, to meet the challenges of public alerting in situations of potential disaster, the CAP is designed in a standard message format targeted for all-media, all-hazard communications. As CAP can replace single-purpose interfaces between alert sources and dissemination media, CAP serves as a kind of universal adaptor for alert messages. The benefits of CAP include (i) activating multiple warning systems with a single input that could reduce cost and complexity of notifying many warning systems; (ii) standardized alerts from many sources can be compiled for situational awareness and pattern detection for monitoring by managers at any one time the whole picture across all types of local, regional and national alerts; (iii) enhancing consistency in information delivered over multiple channels; and (iv) ensuring compatibility with all kinds of public alerting information systems including new technologies as well as legacy formats Aggregators and other intermediaries may lack direct knowledge needed to distinguish an authoritative source of alert messages. This lack becomes critical as alerting makes use of large public networks. As such, the WMO Register of Alerting Authorities ( was set up as a reference to address the knowledge gap. The Register includes URL for forecasts and CAP messages and aggregators of alert messages can subscribe to news feed to keep current with any changes of the Register The Meeting then focused is discussion on applying CAP for delivery of TC Advisories. While CAP is ideal for sending alert of hazards for people at a particular location, TC Advisory was designed to deliver information for a tropical cyclone which is eventfocusing. To adopt CAP in TC Advisories, it was identified that the following issues need to be rectified: (i) define what kind of alert is to be delivered for the CAP message of the TC Advisories; (ii) decide how to determine the alert area of the CAP message to better meet the needs of the recipients; (iii) decide whether and how to break the message into individual CAP alerts for different areas that will be affected in different forecast periods, e.g. 0<T<=24, 24<T<=48, etc.; (iv) design rules for assigning values to elements urgency, severity and certainty; (v) decide on how forecast track could be encoded and in what format Participating centres were invited to express views on the possibility of implementing CAP and some indicated that implementation would be planned. As CAP is a WMO endorsed format for warnings, and in view of the availability of a draft CAP version of TC Advisories from RSMC Tokyo, the Meeting recommended that RSMCs and TCWCs should pursue the investigation of adopting CAP in the delivery of TC Advisories as public alerts. 4.7 Collaboration with other WMO Programmes Storm Surge Watch Scheme The Meeting recalled that WMO Executive Council recommended, at its 60th session in 2008, that Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) should be established on a global basis through the joint effort of TCP and JCOMM. In response the recommendation, regional TC committees took action to organize special advisory arrangements within their respective regions at the initiative of the RSMCs concerned In this regard, the Meeting commended the recent developments in the regional SSWS of the Typhoon Committee region. RSMC Tokyo started to provide the Members of the Committee with the storm-surge distribution maps in June 2011 and the storm-surge time series charts for one point of each Member in June 2012 from the RSMC s website In relation to the SSWS activities, the WMO Secretariat emphasized that JCOMM s initiative for the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP), jointly with the Commission for Hydrology, provides technical components and institutional best practice toward the development of the regional Storm Surge Watch Schemes (SSWSs)

15 The Meeting was informed that, currently, three national CIFDP sub-projects are being implemented - in Bangladesh (Bay of Bengal), Dominican Republic (Caribbean) and now Fiji (South Pacific). Also, two other sub-projects are under consideration by Indonesia and by China (Shanghai), for the initiation in near future, in order to improve the forecasting and warning capability of NMHSs on coastal inundation caused by waves, storm surges and hydrological flooding Regarding the national CIFDP sub-project in Fiji, RSMC Nadi briefed the Meeting that the project has been proposed to identify the requirements and establish a road-map for an effective coastal inundation forecasting service in Fiji. As the Phase 1 of the project, requirements for operational end-to-end coastal inundation forecasting/warning will be documented. In this respect, a workshop is planed to be organized with participation of the stakeholders and the experts from multidisciplinary fields. A detailed design of the project will be prepared with the funding support of the Republic of Korea Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project On behalf of the Data Processing and Forecasting System Programme (DPFS) of WMO, Mr Steve Ready of TCWC Wellington presented the recent status of the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP). SWFDP is a series of regional projects designed to help developing countries around the globe implement and/or improve their severe weather forecast and warning systems and enhance the quality of the interactions between the national meteorological centres and media, disaster management and civil protection authorities resulting in the saving of lives and protection of properties Each subproject has been divided into four phases: Phase 1: Preparation Phase 2: Implementation Phase 3: More participating countries involved and more severe weather hazards Phase 4: Continuous development and sustainable activities Currently, there are 5 sub-projects in various stages of development: SWFDP - Southern Africa Project: The first Sub-Project which started back in 2006 and progressed to phase 4 in July Involved in it are 16 countries, regional centres - RSMC Pretoria, RSMC La Reunion and NWP centres - Met Office UK, NCEP USA and ECMWF. The focus is on heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, and severe winter weather. SWFDP - South Pacific Project: The second project commenced in 2009 and is currently operating in phase 3. Involved in it are 9 island countries, regional centres RSMC Nadi and RSMC Wellington, NWP centres - Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF and Australian BoM. The focus is on heavy rain, strong wind, and damaging waves associated with tropical cyclones and non-tropical cyclone weather systems. It was pointed out that there is likely to be a strong synergy between this Sub-Project and the WMO Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP-FSW) due to commence in SWFDP - Eastern Africa Lake Victoria Project: The third project is in phase 2 and started in June Involved are 6 countries, regional centres RSMC Nairobi and Regional Forecasting Support Centre (RFSC) Dar-es-Salaam and NWP centres - Met Office UK, NCEP USA, ECMWF and DWD. The focus is on strong winds, heavy precipitation, hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and lake Victoria) and dry spells especially for the general public, agriculture and fishery communities. SWFDP - Southeast Asia Project: Initial meeting for this Sub-Project was held in October 2011 and is now in the implementation phase. Involved in it are 4 countries,

16 regional centres RSMC Tokyo and RSMC New Delhi (TC forecasting support), HKO (Training and technical support) and Ha Noi, Vietnam as a RFSC (not yet confirmed). Focus on strong winds and heavy precipitation (mainly TC-related) and associated hazards (e.g. flooding, landslides, storm surges, swell) SWFDP - Bay of Bengal Project: The newest of the sub-projects with an initial planning workshop held in January Involved will be up to 10 countries. The main focus is severe weather associated with tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms (this was re-inforced by an interaction during TCM-7) and monsoon (heavy precipitation, strong winds, larges waves/swell and storm surge) The experiences of the Southern African and the South Pacific projects have highlighted the importance of key resources and sustainability. Sustainability issues including the formation of SWFDP Project Office and a Trust Fund at WMO were keenly discussed at 15th Session of the Commission for Basic Systems (CBS-15), Jakarta, Indonesia, September Funding to help the operation of RFSCs, to facilitate periodic enhancements to Project websites and regular training are essential for the ongoing viability of individual Sub-Projects In reference to the previous agenda ( ), WMO Secretariat informed the Meeting that efforts have been made by the WMO Programmes concerned to maximize the synergy between SWFDP and CIFDP. Linkage will be undertaken between the SWFDP and the CIFDP national sub-projects including the CIFDP Fiji Joint projects with WWRP The Meeting noted that, as part of the collaborative actions taken by TCP and World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) for promoting application of research outcomes to operational forecasting, two projects have been implemented within the framework of the Typhoon Committee Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (TCEFP) aims to explore the utility of ensemble forecast products through THORPEX interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) and thus to extend the use of ensemble products in TC operational forecasting. TCEFP was officially launched in October 2010 and a dedicated website was set up and maintained by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). From the website, TC ensemble forecasts of major NWP centres are distributed on a near real-time basis. Improvement of the products has been carried out based on the feedback from the operational forecasters Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) is another joint project of TCP and WWRP running also for the Typhoon Committee in close connection with TCEFP. This project was kicked of in concert with Shanghai Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Demonstration Project (MHEWS) in TLFDP is aimed at enhancement of the timeliness and accuracy of typhoon forecasts particularly during the landfall process. Under TLFDP, significant efforts have been focused by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA on the verification of TC forecast guidances produced in the region to assess the currently available forecast techniques The Meeting requested the WMO Secretariat to take necessary actions for sharing the outcomes of TCEFP and TLFDP between the regional TC committees. It also urged the WMO Secretariat to consider extension of the two projects to other regions. 4.8 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Competencies At the request of the WMO Secretariat, Mr Mike Bergin (Australia) provided the Meeting with a presentation on the development and implementation of a set of

17 competencies for tropical cyclone forecasters in Australia. He also outlined the considerations this issue had been given at recent meetings of both the RA I and RA V TCCs The Meeting noted that both TCCs have endorsed the establishment of competencies recognising the different requirements depending on the responsibilities of the various forecasting offices. The competencies for forecasters at an RSMC will be different to those for staff from the NMHS of a Small Island State for example. At both TCC meetings there were concerns about the assessment process and the need for enhanced commitment to the training of tropical cyclone forecasters guided by an agreed set of competencies The Meeting noted that the development of these competencies was consistent with a Quality Management approach now being implemented for aviation forecasters and being promoted more broadly by WMO for the delivery of all NHM services and that in various Centres there is already considerable work being undertaken in this area. La Reunion has developed a set of competencies while other Centres such as Honolulu and Tokyo don t have prescribed competencies but they are implied within the training programs for their tropical cyclone forecasters The Meeting acknowledged the recommendation of the 16th WMO Congress and agreed that the development of a universal set of competences for tropical cyclone forecasters was an urgent issue. Further the Meeting endorsed in principle the structured approach in the draft document presented by the Secretariat and called for further work to be undertaken through the various WMO Programmes. 4.9 Consistency between RSMC advisories and NMHSs forecasts The Meeting noted that an earnest argument has continued in the Typhoon Committee in recent years regarding different operational upgrade timings from tropical depressions to tropical storms. A taskforce has been established in the Committee to review the tropical cyclone intensity analyses of the RSMC and national TC warning centers concerned. A study has been undertaken by the taskforce to identify the reasons behind any systematic biases in the timing of upgrading TD in operational forecasting through scienrific and objective approach A similar discussion as to the inconsistency in TC analyses between the RSMC and national TC warning centers was held also in the Panel on Tropical Cyclones at its 39 th session in February Such inconsistency caused confusions to the disaster managers in some countries. Accordingly, the Panel decided to organize a workshop to carry out case studies jointly by the RSMC and the Members concerned to fully share the scientific bases for TC analysis The Meeting was of the view that, although the difference in TC analyses between the RSMC and NMHSs is inevitable because of the inhomogeneity in operational procedures between the centers, scientific efforts to minimize such difference including the promotion of operational observational data exchange, for more harmonized and consistent forecasting in the TC committee regions should be made. In this context, the Meeting requested RSMCs Tokyo and New Delhi to keep them informed of the progress of the discussion Review of terminology/classification of tropical cyclones List of terminology of tropical cyclones The Meeting reviewed the list of terminologies of tropical cyclones adopted at its previous meeting in It recalled that slightly different definitions were identified between the basins regarding extra-tropical cyclone and extratropical transition at the meeting. The Meeting carefully reviewed the definitions in respective RSMC/TCWC basins presented by WMO Secretariat

18 The Meeting also paid its attention to four terms - TC STRIKE, TC INPACT, TC COASTAL CROSSING and TC LANDFALL which were proposed by IWTC-VI (Costa Rica, 2006) to be defined and were discussed during TCM-6. Taking into consideration the suggestion given after TCM-6 by Mr Jim Davidson, Chair of TCM-6, the Meeting considered appropriate definitions for those terms. It decided that the words upon the regional practices attached before RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CENTRE FIX OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, VORTEX FIX be removed for standardization The Meeting considered the recommendation of IWTC-VII (La Réunion, 2010) to determine the guidelines for formation of tropical cyclones meaning at what point is a system classified as a tropical cyclone. An intensive deliberation was conducted on the characteristics of forming storms including duration of convection near the center and distribution of 34 kt winds around the center. The Meeting concluded that a generic definition for a tropical cyclone was unlikely given regional differences. The updated list of terminology is presented in Appendix VIII Classification of tropical cyclones The WMO Secretariat discussed the need to consider a global standard classification of tropical cyclones. He underlined the growing international concern regarding the social vulnerability to tropical cyclones and consequent global diffusion of the tropical cyclone information. Also emphasized was the rapidly increasing and more frequent crossborder traffic by international aviation and shipping. In these circumstances, it is highly desirable that forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones be communicated to the people in a standardized manner The Meeting felt that there would be significant hurdles and the centers would be urged to make tough compromises. RSMC Tokyo recalled that, at the Typhoon Committee meetings, there were some discussions of creating a common classification scheme within the Committee. However, it was never accomplished. The Meeting considered some centers would face a challenging situation where emergency response plans are tied to the current classification The Meeting also took note of a view that a standard classification may not be significant since it is strictly an issue of terminology. With reference to the presentation of RSMC Miami, the Meeting further argued that the most important aspect of tropical cyclones is their impacts, not classification or terminology. TCWCs pointed out the particular difficulty in standardizing the classification of the storms of hurricane/typhoon strength which is much varied from basin to basin as compared to those of lower status In regard to the suggestion of possible creation of a common set of classification in addition to regional classifications, the WMO Secretariat reiterated the significance of pursuing the development of a common classification for the future. He emphasized that while disaster management has now been discussed across borders even on a global level, there have already been not a few misuses of technical words including the TC classifications and categories in the media and the disaster documents. WMO Secretariat further argued that, although this problem is apparently quite challenging for us, we should address the issue proactively and explore the feasibility. TCM is in the unique position in this regard. Works will include an in-depth review of the current warning practices in all the regions and a careful consideration for the acceptability to the users. It will be a timeconsuming process but should be our responsible action The Meeting viewed that this might be possible and it is a matter of willingness, starting with a dual regional and global classification scheme. The Meeting agreed to the proposal of the WMO Secretariat and decided to develop a task team rather than keep pushing the issue down the road. The task team will engage with emergency managers and come up with suggested terms to be brought to RSMCs and TCWCs to gauge the response

19 The intent is to keep the general terms and allow for regional descriptors. The Meeting was also of the opinion that both typhoon and hurricane should be kept since these are so embedded in culture and already highly visible. Suggested members of the task team are RSMC New Delhi, RSMC La Reunion, RSMC Tokyo, RSMC Miami, TCWC Perth, and one observer from NCDC. WMO Secretariat will facilitate the team formation along with who will be the team lead. Regarding inclusion of wind engineering experts on the team, the Meeting viewed that it is not necessary since the classification scheme is mainly for the public and media Recommendations to IWTC Mr Andrew Burton, Co-chair of the Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII), invited the Meeting to review a draft list of topics for IWTC-VIII and make suggestions as to the format and content of the workshop The Meeting started the session by reflecting on the objectives of the IWTC series of workshops as reproduced below (a) (b) (c) To examine the current knowledge of, and forecasting and research trends on, tropical cyclones from an integrated international perspective; To report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future research with special regard to the varying needs of the different regions; and To promote future collaboration between tropical cyclone specialists and especially between research, forecasting, and warning communities. (WMO, 1986: Proceedings of the WMO International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC). WMO/TD-No. 83) The Meeting noted the importance of IWTC as a unique forum for facilitating dialogue and encouraging ongoing collaboration between the global tropical cyclone research, forecasting and warning communities. The Meeting considered that past IWTCs had achieved this objective (as articulated in the third dot point above) with varying levels of success and requested that the International Organising Committee make every endeavour to maintain the focus of the workshop programme on achieving this objective The Meeting endorsed the following draft list of major topics, noting that the length of the workshop was not yet known. 1) Cyclogenesis and intensity change 2) Forecast process and impact forecasting 3) Societal impacts 4) TCs in intraseasonal to climate timescales 5) Structure Mr Burton also presented the following list of possible keynote/special focus session topics: Precipitation: runoff vs aquifer recharge Decision theory and its relevance to warning centre operations and warning response New techniques for TC diagnosis and forecasts (neural networks, clustering other statistical techniques) From research to operations: processes to effect the transition of science into operations Extended use of ensembles (as recommended by the 64th WMO Executive Council) Use of objective TC analyses (as recommended by the 64th WMO Executive Council) Best tracks (including IBTrACS update)

20 There was support for all the topics listed above, with one exception. None of the delegates saw runoff vs aquifer recharge as being relevant to their operations and consequently did not support its inclusion RSMC Wellington suggested inclusion of a session early in the programme outlining the operational perspective of a range of operational centres, as included in some previous IWTC programmes. This was unanimously supported by the other delegates Mr Burton presented the idea of including a practical exercise on satellite analysis of tropical cyclone intensity, similar to an exercise run at the International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC). The session would aim to foster dialogue between forecasters and researchers and give researchers insight into the practical problems faced by forecasters when analysing tropical cyclone intensity. There was strong support for conducting an exercise of this kind and delegates suggested that it should occur early in the programme TCWC Jakarta requested a session on the indirect impacts of tropical cyclones and this was widely supported by the other delegates. Heavy rainfall and large swells were cited as commonly occurring, significant, indirect impacts Australian TCWCs suggested the instigation of a screening process for recommendations to ensure that recommendations that make it into the final report have widespread support. Other delegates supported this suggestion noting that the emphasis of the recommendations committee should be on quality and consensus, rather than quantity A number of other minor recommendations were made by delegates. Mr Burton thanked the delegates for their frank and thoughtful input and committed to presenting all of their suggestions to the International Organising Committee for careful consideration. 5. SPECIAL SESSION - Hurricane SANDY 5.1 In view of its broad range of impact on the warning services, the Meeting decided to hold a special session on Hurricane Sandy, which hit North America late October 2012, with a view to drawing lessons from the warning activities of RSMC Miami. Dr Richard Knabb of RSMC Miami, who was in the immediate aftermath of the catastrophe and thus unable to attend TCM-7, kindly agreed to join the session via videoconference. 5.2 The session started with the presentation by Dr Knabb and continued to a Q&A process. Dr Knabb first showed the Meeting the video report from the reconnaissance flight over the coast of New Jersey. The fact that many of the shingle tile roofs stayed intact suggested wave run-up or storm surge was the key contributor to the damage there. The buildup of sand well beyond the immediate shoreline suggested wave run-up was dominant over storm surge. Dr Knabb suggested that most of the fatalities caused by Sandy in the United States were due to storm surge. 5.3 Dr Knabb discussed that it was a challenge to impress upon the public the extreme nature of the threat posed by Sandy. Many were trying to relate to previous event in their own experience which was inferior to the anything like Sandy. Timely evacuations would definitely have saved a lot of lives. It was considered important not to become sidetracked by terminology tropical versus post-tropical but to focus on the hazards of strong winds, heavy rain, waves and storm surge, and heavy snow. Obviously, people in key governing positions didn t fully understand the seriousness of the threat that Sandy posed. National Hurricane Center (NHC) and local weather forecast offices issued various advisories and warnings and frequently briefed government agencies and the media. Quality coordination between NHC and the local offices was a strong aspect of the warning strategy. 5.4 He further discussed that differences in terminology (e.g. tropical versus posttropical) might become an issue when insurance companies seek to reduce their liabilities

21 Locations that received a storm surge didn t receive a lot of wind and vice-versa. The decision not to switch bulletin types because of the transition from a tropical to a post-tropical system proved to be a wise one. Much was learnt from the reconnaissance flights after the event especially in regard to what meteorological or oceanographic phenomenon was primarily responsible for the damage in each area. 5.5 Dr Knabb informed the Meeting that they will soon undertake a comprehensive review of Hurricane Sandy including historical analysis of its development, verification of forecasts and assessment of socio-economic impacts. He assured the Meeting that its outcomes will be fully shared with the members of TCM. 5.6 The Meeting paid its high compliment to the successful warning activity of NHC against Sandy. It also expressed the high gratitude to Dr Knabb for taking time in his busy schedule to join the session. 6. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING 6.1 At the closing ceremony, Mr Koji Kuroiwa, the representative of the WMO Secretariat, expressed the appreciation of WMO to the Meteorological, Climatological and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia for hosting the meeting and for the excellent facilities provided. He showed his gratitude to Chairman, Vice-chairman and rapporteurs for their excellent work done and the local secretariat for their warm and kind hospitality to the participants. Mr Kuroiwa also thanked all participants for their active participation in the discussions throughout the four-day session. The Chairman of TCM-7 declared the meeting closed at 1230 hours on 15 November

22 LIST OF APPENDICES APPENDIX I List of Participants APPENDIX II Agenda APPENDIX III Summary of the presentation on IBTrACS APPENDIX IV Intentions of Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres to Implement Tropical Cyclone Advisory Information in Graphical Format APPENDIX V Action Sheet for Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones APPENDIX VI Activity reports of RSMCs and TCWCs APPENDIX VII Proposed description of the Terms of Reference of TC RSMCs and TCWCs for inclusion in the new WMO GDPFS Manual APPENDIX VIII List of terminology of tropical cyclones

23 APPENDIX I LIST OF PARTICIPANTS 1. Representatives of TC RSMCs and TCWCs RSMC Honolulu Mr Raymond TANABE Director Central Pacific Hurricane Center NOAA/NWS/WFO Honolulu 2525 Correa Rd., Suite 250 Honolulu, HI USA Tel.: Fax: raymond.tanabe@noaa.gov RSMC La Réunion Mr Philippe CAROFF Responsable opérationnel CMRS de La Réunion B.P Sainte Clotilde La Réunion, France Tel.: Fax: philippe.caroff@meteo.fr RSMC Nadi Mr Ameniasi TUIDRAKI Fiji Meteorological Service Private Mail Bag NAP0351 Nadi Airport Fiji Tel.: Fax: aminiasi.tuidraki@met.gov.fj RSMC New Delhi Mr B. K. BANDYOPADHYAY. Deputy Director General India Meteorological Department Mausam Bhavan Lodi Road, New Delhi India Tel.: Fax: bkbando1705@yahoo.co.in RSMC Tokyo Mr Masashi KUNITSUGU Japan Meteorological Agency Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo Japan Tel.: (ext. 3148) Fax: kunitsugu@met.kishou.go.jp

24 APPENDIX I RSMC Miami (only for Agenda 5 via videoconference) Dr Richard KNABB Director RSMC Miami-Hurricane Center TPC/NHC S. W. 17 th Street Miami, FL USA Tel.: Fax: Richard.Knabb@noaa.gov TCWC Jakarta Dr Mulyono R. Prabowo Director Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency Jl.Angkasa I/2 - Kemayoran Jakarta Indonesia Mr A. Fachri RADJAB Head, Tropical Cyclone Subdivision Meteorological Climatological and Geophysical Agency Jl.Angkasa I/2 - Kemayoran Jakarta Indonesia Tel.: Fax: m.prabowo@gmail.com Tel.: Fax: fachriradjab@yahoo.com TCWC Perth Mr Mike BERGIN Regional Director (Western Australia) Bureau of Meteorology P.O. Box 1370 WEST PERTH 6872 Australia (also for TCWCs Darwin and Brisbane) Tel.: Fax: m.bergin@bom.gov.au TCWC Port Moresby Mr Jimmy GOMOGA Assistant Director, Operations National Weather Service P. O. Box 1240 Boroko Papua New Guinea Tel.: Fax: & jgomoga@pngmet.gov.pg TCWC Wellington

25 APPENDIX I Mr Steve READY Manager Wellington RSMC Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd PO Box 722. Wellington 6140 New Zealand Tel.: Fax: Steve.Ready@metservice.com 2. Invited Experts Mr Andrew BURTON Bureau of Meteorology P.O. Box 1370 WEST PERTH 6872 Australia Tel.: Fax: a.burton@bom.gov.au Mr Armstrong CHENG Hong Kong Observatory 134A Nathan Road, Kowloon Hong Kong, China Tel.: Fax: ycccheng@hko.gov.hk Eliot Christian 2002 Lakebreeze Way Reston, Virginia USA (only for Agenda 4.6 via videoconference) Tel.: Fax: echristian@usgs.gov 3. Observers ICAO Mr Greg BROCK Chief MET/AIM Section ICAO 999, University Street Montreal, P.Q Canada H3C 5H7 Tel.: , ext Fax: gbrock@icao.int NCDC Dr Howard J. DIAMOND National Climatic Data Center NOAA (Director, World Data Center for Meteorology) 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1202 Silver Spring MD USA Tel.: Fax: howard.diamond@noaa.gov 3. WMO Representative

26 APPENDIX I Mr Koji KUROIWA Chief Tropical Cyclone Programme Division Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Services Department WMO 7 bis, avenue de la Paix C.P GENEVA 2 Switzerland Tel.: Fax: kkuroiwa@wmo.int

27 APPENDIX II AGENDA 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE MEETING 1.1 Opening of the meeting 1.2 Election of the chairman and vice-chairman 1.3 Adoption of the agenda 1.4 Working arrangements 2. FOLLOW-UP ACTION ON THE SIXTH TC RSMCs/TCWCs TECHNICAL COORDINATION MEETING 2.1 Definition of maximum sustained wind speed of tropical cyclones 2.2 Collaboration with Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 2.3 Tropical Cyclone Advisory for international civil aviation and coordination with WAFCs 2.4 IWTC-7 recommendations 3. REPORT ON CURRENT AND PLANNED ACTIVITIES 3.1 Implementation of the TCP including Guidance from the WMO Congress and Executive Council for TCP 3.2 Recent and Current Activities of the TC RSMCs and TCWCs 4. COORDINATION 4.1 Functions and responsibilities of TC RSMCs and TCWCs 4.2 Requirements for operational forecasts/advisories, watches and warnings 4.3 Training 4.4 Support to operational forecasters Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting WMO/TCP Tropical Cyclone Forecaster Website 4.5 Recommendations of International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC) 4.6 Application of Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) to TC warnings 4.7 Collaboration with other WMO Programmes Storm Surge Watch Scheme Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project

28 APPENDIX II Joint projects with WWRP 4.8 Tropical Cyclone Forecast Competencies 4.9 Consistency between RSMC advisories and NMHSs forecasts 4.10 Review of terminology/classification of tropical cyclones List of terminology of tropical cyclones Classification of tropical cyclones 4.11 Recommendations to IWTC-8 5. SPECIAL SESSION Hurricane SANDY 6. CLOSURE OF THE MEETING

29 APPENDIX III Summary of the presentation on IBTrACS by Mr Howard Diamond National Climatic Data Center The goal of IBTrACS is to collect the historical tropical cyclone (TC) best track data from all available international centers and other agencies, combine the disparate datasets into one product and disseminate in formats used by the TC community. Each TC RSMC and TCWC forecasts and monitors storms for its responsible region and annually develops and archives best track data, which consist of information on a storm s position, intensity, and other related parameters. Therefore, IBTrACS is a new global dataset based on the best track data from numerous sources. Moreover, rather than preferentially selecting one track and intensity for each storm, the mean position, the original intensities from the agencies and summary statistics are all provided. Since being officially recognized by the WMO/TCP at TCM-6 as a diagnostic and research tool for use by all RSMCs and TCWCs; the goal of IBTrACS is continue to build on that and improve its contact with and work with the appropriate international centers involved in TC monitoring. To that end, NCDC will continue to work on IBTrACS and work with its partners to ensure that it meets their requirements. Studies of TC frequency and distribution have garnered much attention recently. Despite the numerous articles in peer-reviewed literature discussing global statistics of TCs (e.g., power dissipation index or frequency of extreme cyclones), until recently there was no such central repository of global TC data. Many researchers have simply used data from the fewest sources to obtain global coverage: HURDAT1 and data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Aside from the many issues in merging data from just these two centers, doing so also excludes data from many of the RSMCs, who officially forecast and monitor TCs in their regions of responsibility. Furthermore, there are similar best track data sets from other institutions in countries with interests in certain basins. In short, the two primary issues which hinder scientists from using all available global TC data are: 1) availability and 2) the process in combining disparate data sets. The purpose of IBTrACS project (Knapp et al., 2010) is to overcome these issues thereby facilitating scientific research to improve the public understanding of global TCs. First, the IBTrACS team works with all available RSMCs and other centers of data to obtain the global best tracks. Second, it processes all best track data by combining storm information tracked by multiple centers (Kruk et al. 2010) and reporting the data using common formats. The overarching vision is to provide an openly accessible and comprehensive global TC best track data set to facilitate research. Likewise, the methods used to produce the data are openly described and flexible to accommodate user feedback. Since 2009, an updated and more descriptive article regarding IBTrACS was published (Knapp et al, 2010), and this reference is posted on the IBTrACS web site and is the primary reference for the dataset. More information on IBTrACS is available on the project website at In trying to keep IBTrACS as current as possible, the program works to produce an annual update that strives to post on their site by September of each year. So for example, the 2011 best tracks data (2011 in the northern hemisphere and 2010/11 in the southern hemisphere) was posted on the IBTrACS web site in early October We realize that the RSMCs and TCWCs have a tremendous workload associated with the operational monitoring of TCs and in compiling their center s best tracks for their area of responsibility. However, in order to keep IBTrACS as current and relevant as possible, they need to try and capture that information in as timely and effective way possible. As such, they typically look to begin the update process with a notice to Centers requesting their best track information starting in the April timeframe (so for the 2012 data, they will begin sending notices to Centers around the

30 APPENDIX III beginning of April Therefore, the ability of Centers to respond to the IBTrACS team with the data within about 2 months of that time would be very much appreciated by the team. In addition, the provision of as much metadata as possible that documents the practices at each Center are always quite welcome and very much needed from a documentation standpoint in order for us to be able to field questions from users. In particular, the IBTrACS team is being asked for information regarding how the data are derived and the quality of the data. These two issues are best answered by the RSMCs/TCWCs when preparing the best track datasets. In short, it would be useful for the community to have a document. First, a document is needed that provides information on each parameter provided. Some variables are best tracked. That is, some variables have been analyzed after the storm with more complete information. These parameters then have a higher quality. Conversely, some parameters are provided in best track files that were merely used as initial guesses and have received no further post season analysis. These parameters should be considered of lower quality. Users want to know how much to trust each parameter. The WMO format provides the capability to flag the quality of certain parameters, but it is not enough. Second, how certain parameters are measured provides information to users on how those parameters might be used for their application. In summary, the China Meteorological Agency recently published a thorough documentation of the procedures used in creating typhoon best track data (Ying et al. 2012). In doing so, the users are more aware of issues related to the data and are more prepared to use the data wisely. Such a report from each RSMC/TCWC on how best track data are prepared, which datasets are best tracked and the estimated quality of each parameter would benefit the community. NCDC and the WDC for Meteorology hosted the 2nd international IBTrACS Workshop that took place in Honolulu, Hawaii, from April 2011, and was held in conjunction with the WMO sponsored International Workshop on Satellite Analysis of Tropical Cyclones (IWSATC) at the same venue from April Having such a back-to-back conference forum took advantages of the synergies of having representatives of the RSMCs and TCWCs attend in addition to members of the academic community involved in TC analysis. As a follow-up to the first international IBTrACS workshop in 2009, the goal was to continue the momentum of international collaboration and dialog by bringing together representatives from IBTrACS data providers, IBTrACS users and other TC researchers. In addition, the workshop addressed unresolved issues regarding construction, archive and use of best track data. Workshop Structure: Discussion of all topics will be open to the group. Each topic was introduced by the IBTrACS team; an invited response. The format led to some lively discussions and breakout sessions which continue to assist in guiding the path of IBTrACS today. Given the importance and recent emphasis on climate services as a result of the Global Framework for Climate Services (established at the 3rd World Climate Conference in 2009), the international climate services community has become interested in IBTrACS as a case study. As such, the IBTrACS team was asked to put together a white paper on the services we provide to a recent meeting of the 2nd International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS) that took place in Brussels, Belgium, from 5-7 September At this meeting, the Climate Services Partnership (CSP), an informal international network established in 2011 to advance the development and delivery of climate services worldwide, which sponsors the ICCS 2, addressed current progress, challenges, and opportunities in climate services development. This gave IBTrACS the opportunity to serve as an example that gave special attention to the issue of partnerships to support climate services. The ICCS also explored the conditions and means through which an effective climate services enterprise, involving both public and private sectors working together synergistically, can be established. In addition, the conference will address challenges to this partnership concept. IBTrACS is glad to share the whitepaper and will have it posted on our web site soon. Since initially being released in 2009, IBTrACS now has a total of 467 registered users from over 230 Internet domains. The most recent version of IBTrACS, v03r04, was released in October The diversity of users of IBTrACS continues to grow, and in addition to traditional users of best track data,

31 APPENDIX III recently the people behind the Cloud Globe web site at which is an interactive visualization site of cloud data, incorporated IBTrACS data into their project. Finally, IBTrACS has been instrumental in spurring other efforts in producing high-quality best track data. Data from IBTrACS was used as input to the construction of the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC) which was developed for the entire south Pacific basin from 135ºE to 120ºW and has data as far back as Diamond et al. (2011) documents the construction of an enhanced TC database for the southwest Pacific, the quality controls needed to construct the database, and discuss how it has enhanced the chronology of region-wide historical TC activity in light of newly discovered data. Such work has already led to this enhanced dataset being used in climate studies to better characterize the climatology and behavior of TCs in the Southwest Pacific (Diamond, et al. 2012), and has also begun to be employed by the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (NIWA) in New Zealand in their seasonal tropical cyclone outlooks. Since it was released in 2011, there have been 35 registered users of SPEArTC, and the latest version was issued in September Plans are to work with Australia and French Polynesia to add more data to the database in the pre-1900 timeframe. Recently, the people working on the Earhart project, which is testing the hypothesis that the pilot Amelia Earhart and her navigator Fred Noonan landed, and eventually died, on Nikumaroro Island in Kiribati [see consulted the SPEArTC database to look for TC information for the period from in that area of the Southwest Pacific. More information on SPEArTC can be found at The IBTrACS dataset is the result of a globally coordinated and collaborative project, and provides the first publicly available centralized repository of global TC best track data from the RSMCs, TCWCs and other agencies. In combining the disparate datasets, IBTrACS uses objective techniques that necessarily account for the inherent differences between international agencies. Unlike any other global tropical cyclone best track dataset, IBTrACS provides a measure of the inter-agency variability, which helps to identify uncertainty in the TC record. While IBTrACS is not a reanalysis (e.g., Fernandez-Partagas and Diaz,1996; Harper et al., 2008b; Landsea et al., 2004), the derived uncertainty metrics can serve as a stepping stone in identifying those tropical cyclones which are in most need of reanalysis. As IBTrACS data stand, numerous inhomogeneities exist in the intensity record due to interagency differences in available technologies, observations and procedures over time. For example, inhomogeneities were introduced when various satellite data became available at an agency or when forecasters were trained in different analysis techniques. As discussed in Levinson et al. (2010), efforts are underway at NCDC to document the operating procedures at the various RSMC and forecast offices, with an emphasis on changes in processes or capabilities that affect dataset homogeneity. Finally, IBTrACS is expandable to allow for inclusion of other best track datasets as they become available. This allows input from individuals and/or agencies that have yet to develop new or release existing best track data. It is clear that the IBTrACS dataset would be even more useful by including other information on global tropical cyclones. For example, non-developing storm tracks could be included for the tropical cyclone forecasting community in a future version. Such data are needed to verify statistical tropical cyclone intensity prediction models (e.g., DeMaria and Kaplan, 1999). Furthermore, some agencies provide non 6-hr analyses and other storm parameters (such as radius of maximum winds, storm size, eye diameter, and radius of the outer-most closed isobar), which could be incorporated into IBTrACS making it more useful to storm surge and wave modelers, emergency managers and reinsurance groups. The Meeting was invited to note the information in this document with a view toward: (a) Providing any advice and recommendations for improvements and/or enhancements to IBTrACS.

32 APPENDIX III (b) (c) (d) Continuing to endorse the IBTrACS dataset as a viable, active, and unifying global archive to aid the work of the TC RSMCs and TCWCs. Inviting IBTrACS to provide updates to the TC Programme as appropriate. Encouraging RSMCs and TCWCs to continue providing their best track data to IBTrACS in as timely a manner as possible; as well as providing enhanced best tracks metadata as documented in section B of the body of the paper below.

33 APPENDIX IV INTENTIONS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY CENTRES TO IMPLEMENT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY INFORMATION IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT Note. Responses received from the TCACs through the Chief, WMO Tropical Cyclone Division, between 23 February and 15 March 2012 Each tropical cyclone advisory centre was invited to answer the following four questions: 1) Does your TCAC issue tropical cyclone advisory information in graphical format in portable network graphics (PNG) format or BUFR code form, as per the recommended practice in ICAO Annex 3 Appendix 2? 2) If so, what is (are) the WMO abbreviated header line(s) used for such advisories? 3) If not, does your TCAC have plans to introduce graphical advisories and, if so, by when? 4) Are the TCAC(s) issuing TCG would be in a position to enter into a bilateral arrangement with the SADIS Provider State in the UK to ensure that the TCG can be transmitted to aviation users worldwide via the ICAO aeronautical fixed service? Summary of replies from TCACs through WMO Secretariat as at 15 March 2012: TCAC Q.1 Q.2 Q.3 Q.4 Darwin No 1 N/A 2 We currently plan to be issuing the [tropical cyclone advisory in PNG format] product from the start of the 2012/13 Southern Hemisphere TC season in October Yes Honolulu No N/A RSMC has no plans at this time to produce a graphical TCAC. We can explore this possibility in coordination with RSMC Miami. No La Réunion Yes PZXD(01-05) FMEE N/A Yes, already in place Miami No N/A Not this year [2012], possibly look into No Nadi PNG No BUFR Yes KSXS(01-02) NFFN N/A No 1 Full extract of Q.1 reply from TCAC Darwin: We have not yet introduced the graphical form of the tropical cyclone advisory for our area of responsibility (90E-160E south of the Equator). When we do, it will be in PNG format; 2 Full extract of Q.2 reply from TCAC Darwin: We have not yet determined what these will be. We will be talking with the WMO coding group to determine the appropriate codes to meet international standards.

34 APPENDIX IV

35 APPENDIX V ACTION SHEET SEVENTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP ON TROPICAL CYCLONES (La Réunion, France, November 2010) Recommendations addressed to WMO Subject Area To encourage: Action Required Responsible (WMO) Deadline Focal Point/Remarks/Status of Action WWW (OBS) NDD HP, on-going maintenance of existing observing systems that pertain to the tropical cyclone and its environment, the development and transition of new observing systems to operations, and the expansion of surface observing systems along coastal areas worldwide by respective partner nations. To encourage nations to upgrade communication systems in more isolated communities, which is essential to the timely communication of tropical cyclone warnings: WWW (OBS) NDD HP; on-going providing guidelines for effective communication between tropical cyclone forecasters and disaster managers, government entities, the public, and media; and communicating the differences between tropical cyclones and mid-latitude cyclones and their associated impacts for better public preparedness.

36 APPENDIX V Subject Area Action Required Form an Expert Team that will focus on the capability, gaps, and requirements needed to better understand, observe, forecast, and mitigate both the direct and remote rainfall associated with landfall events. An overall objective is to develop a multi-national Research and Development Project or a Forecast Demonstration Project. Responsible (WMO) Deadline Focal Point/Remarks/Status of Action WWRP ASAP HP; to be undertaken by Expert Team on Landall Processes. WGTMR is developing an RDP on TC landfall To encourage the inter-comparison, calibration, maintenance, and documentation of existing platforms for tropical cyclone wind measurements (i.e., remote sensing/satellite, SFMR, dropsondes, and land-based surface winds suitably adjusted to standard exposure) WWW (OBS) NDD (no definite date) HP; on-going To assist in defining standard metrics by which operational centers classify tropical cyclone formation, structure, and intensity, and that these metrics serve as a basis to collect verification statistics. These statistics could be used for purposes including objectively verifying numerical guidance and communicating with the public. WWRP, TCP and WGNE Before IWTC-7I HP; planning stage with JWGFVR and WGTMR s Tropical Cyclone Panel THORPEX to assist in the further development of a comprehensive suite of probabilistic forecast products targeting tropical cyclone track, intensity, genesis, and impacts on land and at sea. To encourage the continued education of the media and the general public to the limitations of seasonal forecasts and assesses how the public responds to seasonal forecasts in different regions. WWRP/ THORPEX Expert Team on Seasonal TC Forecast Before IWTC-7I ASAP On-going; WMO to continue to support the regional tropical cyclone-related work of THORPEX On-going

37 APPENDIX V Subject Area Action Required To establish an expert group on each of the IWTC-7 topics TC structure and intensity change Tropical Cyclone Formation and Extratropical Transition Tropical Cyclones and Climate Disaster risks, mitigation, warning systems, and socio-economic impacts. to facilitate the implementation of recommendations. The expert groups should include a suitable mix of forecasters and researchers. Responsible (WMO) Deadline Focal Point/Remarks/Status of Action WGTMR ASAP Plans to establish task teams under the existing expert teams of WGTMR and WGSERA To promote the running of specialized workshops on IWTC themes. These include: the resumption of the International Workshop on Extratropical Transition (IWET) to examine results and define improvements since T-PARC; an international workshop on tropical cyclone formation that coordinates results from recent field programs (e.g., TCS-08, GRIP, IFEX, PREDICT, and TCS-10); and a workshop on societal impacts for the purpose of advancing the Total Warning System concept and for the sharing of relevant experiences. WWRP/TCP/ ETR Before IWTC-7I IWET III held in Montreal from 21 to 25 May planned in planned in early 2014

38 APPENDIX V Subject Area Action Required To continue supporting training programs for forecaster development, which should include researcher participation and collaboration. Training should include new research developments, updates to current processes and products, and interaction between forecasters and researchers via visiting scientist programs and exchanges among TC RSMCs. To encourage the countries in the Asia Pacific region organize a regional co-operation to initiate aircraft reconnaissance for the purpose of supporting: 1) improved forecasts of intensity, size, and structure; and 2) validation and development of satellite-based techniques to assess both structure and intensity (including Dvorak new microwave-based methods). The WMO should encourage all countries in the region to contribute resources and/or assets towards this effort, as they are able. Data gathered should be disseminated in real-time in WMO-approved formats to all stakeholders. To establish a private list with the purpose of assisting RSMCs / TCWCs during specific TC forecast events and encourage real time communication between forecasters and researchers. Responsible (WMO) Deadline Focal Point/Remarks/Status of Action WWRP/TCP NDD On-going: WWRP: 2 workshops for TC forecasters in 2011 and 1 in 2012 TCP: 3 workshops in 2011 and 1 in 2012 for TC forecasters TCP NDD On-going WWRP ASAP On-going To encourage communication and education between forecasting and disaster management communities globally. In addition, the WMO should assist developing countries to engage in hazard assessment, risk mapping, and tropical cyclone simulation exercises, especially in highly vulnerable WWRP/DRR/ TCP NDD On going

39 APPENDIX V Subject Area coastal and island areas. Action Required Responsible (WMO) Deadline Focal Point/Remarks/Status of Action To facilitate the development of a standardised template for detailed tropical cyclone bulletins as requested by the SWIC hosts. This template should be passed by WMO to the RSMC/TCWC Technical Coordination Committee for action. IWTC-7 endorses the Knutson et al Nature Geosciences (2010) as being a fair assessment of the current state of the science of climate change impacts on tropical cyclones and encourages the WMO to also endorse this article. On-going TCP Next TC RSMC meeting WWRP Cg-XVI done Legend: ASAP - As Soon As Possible Cg-XVI - Sixteenth WMO Congress DRR - Disaster Risk Reduction Programme ETR - Education and Training HP - High Priority NDD - No Definite Deadline RSMC - Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre TC - Tropical Cyclone TCP - Tropical Cyclone Programme WWW - World Weather Watch WWRP - World Weather Research Programme

40 APPENDIX VI Activity reports of RSMCs and TCWCs Recent and Current Activities of the RSMC Miami Hurricane Center 1. Background RSMC Miami is responsible for tropical and subtropical cyclone advisories for the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico and the North Pacific Ocean eastward from 140 W. RSMC Miami assists the WMO Regional Association IV (RA IV) members in the coordination of watches and warnings during the tropical cyclone events. In 2010, the lead times of tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings were increased by 12 hours. This change was coordinated and adopted by member countries in RA IV at the 32 nd session of the RA IV Hurricane Committee. The extension has allowed more time for the emergency managers and the public to prepare for tropical cyclone events. Dr Richard Knabb (Rick) is the Director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/National Weather Service (NWS)/National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the World Meteorological Organization s (WMO) Regional Specialized Meteorological Center Miami (RSMC Miami). 2. Coordination In the U.S.A., tropical cyclone forecasts are coordinated with the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices and the Department of Defense (DOD) via a dedicated hotline. The NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) in Camp Springs, Maryland, provides rainfall guidance and serves as the backup for the RSMC Miami for the Atlantic basin tropical cyclone products. The NOAA/NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii is the backup center for NHC s eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone forecasts. The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) provides guidance on the possibility of tornadoes associated with tropical cyclones. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hurricane Liaison Team (HLT) is activated to assist with the coordination among emergency managers. Activation of a media pool during landfalling hurricane events continues to be a very efficient way of communicating tropical cyclone warnings, hazards, and forecasts to the public in the United States. Coordination between RSMC Miami and the U.S. Department of State Crisis Operations Center during hurricane was helpful in communicating forecasts with the U.S. Embassies in the RA-IV countries. Reconnaissance aircraft plays an extremely important role in monitoring the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. These valuable meteorological data are not available from any other sources. RSMC Miami thanks the RA IV members for helping to coordinate timely over-flight clearances for reconnaissance aircraft. RSMC Miami greatly appreciates the radar imagery received operationally from RA IV members during the hurricane season. The Chairman encouraged NMHSs to continue to make radar imagery from the region available operationally via the Internet or any other possible way. The radar data greatly assist in the forecast and warning process by providing a more accurate assessment of a tropical cyclone s center location and structure. Surface and upper air observations are very important to the operational forecasts of the RSMC Miami. The Chairman appreciated the members efforts to maintain their observation and communication systems, especially the data received from the members during tropical cyclone events.

41 APPENDIX VI RSMC Miami thanks the members affected by tropical cyclones for the timely submission of their post-storm country reports. These reports are vital to the preparation of the RSMC Miami Tropical Cyclone Report. 3. Products issued by RSMC Miami NHC provides the big picture that complements and guides local U.S. NWS Weather Forecast Office products, and provides guidance for international partners. All these products are disseminated via GTS or NHC web. Hurricane Specialist Unit Text products Public Advisory Forecast Advisory Forecast Discussion Wind Speed Probabilities and Maximum Intensity Probability Table Tropical Cyclone Update Position Estimate Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Cyclone Reports Seasonal Forecast (as co-author) Monthly Tropical Weather Summary Graphical products Watch/Warning and Track Forecast Cone Surface Wind Field Wind Speed Probabilities Intensity Probability Table Cumulative Wind History Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Storm Surge Probabilities and Exceedence Podcasts (Audio) Experimental GIS Products Forecast track, cone of uncertainty, and watches/warnings Surface wind field and forecast wind radii Preliminary best-track information including cumulative wind swatch, track, points, and wind radii Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Wind Speed Probabilities Probabilistic Storm Surge Watch/warning breakpoints Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch Marine forecasts (graphical and text) and discussions (MIM)\ Experimental gridded marine wind and wave forecasts Surface analyses and discussions (TWD) Aviation forecasts and warnings (backup responsibilities) Satellite-derived rainfall estimates Dvorak Tropical cyclone intensity estimates in support of NHC TC forecast operations Media support to NHC (English, Spanish, French) Radar tracking of tropical cyclones

42 APPENDIX VI Forecast support to Hurricane Specialists (Marine) 4. Future products NHC has been conducting several in-house experiments during the past couple of years to determine the feasibility of providing improved forecasts and enhanced decisionmaking support. These experiments include: - Day 6 and 7 track and intensity forecasts - Medium range (days 3-5) probabilistic tropical cyclone formation forecasts - Issuance of Watches and Warnings before tropical cyclone formation - Pre-tropical cyclone (disturbance) track and intensity forecasts The NHC began making day 6 and 7 track and intensity forecasts for all active tropical cyclones in These forecasts, along with their utility, will be evaluated for possible extension of the current NHC 5-day (120 h) forecasts. NHC is planning to continue the in-house experiment in 2013 for additional evaluation. NHC started making probabilistic tropical cyclone formation forecasts out to 5-days in These forecasts have been sufficiently reliable for NHC to begin exploring ways to issue them in both text and graphic formats. NHC understands the need of emergency planners to have additional forecast and warning information when a tropical cyclone forms near land and impacts a region very quickly. As a result, the NHC has been creating in-house track and intensity forecasts during the 2011 and 2012 seasons for disturbances assessed to have a high (greater than 50%) chance of development during the preceding 48 hours. These forecasts have been created in support of a second in-house experiment that is exploring the issuance of tropical cyclone watches and warnings before tropical cyclone formation. 5. Training activities The WMO RA-IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and Warning and Public Weather Services is held yearly at RSMC Miami. The workshop is offered in English and Spanish every other year due to the importance to the region s hurricane program. Lixion Avila participated in a Hurricane Forecasting Workshop in the Dominican Republic and in El Salvador during May 2011 and February 2012, respectively. Several meteorologists from the region have participated in the WMO/RSMC Miami attachment program. The meteorologists helped with hurricane warning coordination in the region during the tropical cyclone events while they gained valuable training in hurricane forecasting. RSMC Miami and WMO strongly encouraged WMO RA-IV Permanent Representatives to continue to support this program. Meteorologists from the Mexican Air Force are stationed at the RSMC Miami during the hurricane season. The meteorologists help to coordinate timely clearances for hurricane surveillance and reconnaissance flights over Mexico during tropical cyclone events that had the potential to make landfall. Their efforts helped improve the overall efficiency of the Hurricane Warning Program. RSMC Miami urged the continuation of this program. On November 16-19, 2011, Dr Cristina Forbes, an oceanographer and numerical modeler at the National Hurricane Center Storm Surge Unit, attended the Word Meteorological Organization Stakeholders Technical Workshop for the JCOMM-CHy Coastal Inundation Forecasting Demonstration Project (CIFDP) in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, as an invited storm surge modeling expert. The workshop was held in Spanish and was well attended involving participants from many different local and foreign institutions. Dr Forbes presented a talk entitled "An Introduction to the SLOSH Modeling System" then

43 APPENDIX VI developed and presented a draft plan to establish a new storm surge prediction system in the Dominican Republic. NOAA/NWS has been engaged in capacity-building efforts within the region. NWS/ IAO supports capacity-building, education and outreach activities in RA-IV through the WMO's Voluntary Contribution Program (VCP). Many of the projects are in support of the monitoring and warning of hurricanes operations of RSMC Miami, but the activities also support the routine forecasting and operations of NMHSs in the region. NOAA Tropical Training Desk: NOAA trains meteorologists from Central America and the Caribbean each year at the Tropical Desk at the NCEP/HPC. Fellows are trained on operational skills, including numerical weather prediction techniques 6. Outreach Activities The Latin America Caribbean Hurricane Awareness Tour (LACHAT) takes place every spring. The U.S. Air Force C-130 (J-model) Hurricane Hunter plane visits different WMO Region IV countries with the purpose of increase public awareness of the hurricane threat and will serve to recognize and strengthen national and international teamwork for storm warning and emergency response. The LACHAT had enhanced the visibility of the participating country s weather forecasting and emergency management offices. Over 15 thousand people toured the plane every year. A Hurricane Awareness Tour (HAT) typically takes place along portions of the United States coasts. 7. Research As part of the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP), the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) is one of the primary avenues to evaluate research projects with the goal of transitioning successful projects into operations. Details on this project are found at: In addition, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) is a multiagency effort to improve tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast accuracy by 50% over a ten-year period. Some promising preliminary results were noted when Doppler radar data were assimilated into a high resolution model. The output showed potential to provide better intensity forecast guidance, though much more developmental work and testing are required. RSMC Miami is actively involved in leading the aspects of HFIP. A procedure whereby promising output will be made available in real or near real time for the Specialists in in place, allowing for interaction through the season between research and operations scientists. Details on this project are found at: Details on this project are found at: RSMC Miami participates in the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC). Hurricane Specialist Dr Lixion Avila is member of the IWTC international Committee. During the past two or three seasons, the U.S. Air Force and NOAA Reconnaissance Hurricane aircraft have provided valuable meteorological data not available from any other sources. The NOAA P-3 and NOAA-Gulfstream jet aircraft missions were primarily devoted to collecting data for the Intensity Forecasting EXperiment (IFEX) project lead by NOAA s Hurricane Research Division. IFEX seeks to improve operational forecasts of tropical cyclone intensity, structure, and rainfall by providing more accurate data to the operational numerical modeling system (HWRF) and by improving understanding of tropical cyclone physical processes. Several other experiments occurred simultaneously and in partnership with NOAA. NASA collaborators conducted the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment to better understand the processes important in tropical cyclone genesis and rapid intensification. The NSF conducted the PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) experiment to understand the processes governing the

44 APPENDIX VI transition of easterly waves into tropical depressions, with a focus on the mesoscale and synoptic-scale environment supportive of tropical cyclogenesis. These observations collected, no doubt, aid researchers in understanding the processes that contribute to hurricane intensification, ultimately leading to better forecasts. 8. Tropical cyclone activity since 2009 Atlantic activity since 2009 Year #NS #H #MH * Totals Eastern North Pacific activity since 2009 RSMC Miami totals: #NS 89 #H 51 #MH 23 Year #NS #H #MH * Totals Additional information of individual named tropical cyclones is included in the summaries written by the Hurricane Specialists Unit and can be found at

45 APPENDIX VI Tropical Cyclone Season ATLANTIC PRELIMINARY SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) TS ALBERTO MAY 60 TS BERYL MAY 70 H CHRIS JUN 75 TS DEBBY JUN 60 H ERNESTO 1-10 AUG 85 TS FLORENCE 4-6 AUG 60 H GORDON AUG 110 TS HELENE 9-18 AUG 45 H ISAAC 21 AUG-1 SEP 80 TS JOYCE AUG 40 H KIRK 28 AUG-2 SEP 105 H LESLIE 30 AUG-11 SEP 75 MH MICHAEL 3-11 SEP 115 H NADINE 11 SEP- 4 OCT 90 TS OSCAR 3-5 OCT 50 TS PATTY OCT 45 H RAFAEL OCT

46 APPENDIX VI EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC PRELIMINARY SUMMARY TABLE NAME DATES MAX WIND (MPH) TS ALETTA MAY 50 MH BUD MAY 115 H CARLOTTA JUN 105 MH DANIEL 4-12 JUL 115 MH EMILIA 7-15 JUL 140 H FABIO JUL 105 H GILMA 7-11 AUG 80 TS HECTOR AUG 50 H ILEANA 27 AUG-2 SEP 85 TS JOHN 2-4 SEP 40 TS KRISTY SEP 60 H LANE SEP 80 MH MIRIAM SEP 120 TS NORMAN SEP 45 TS OLIVIA 6-9 OCT 60 H PAUL OCT

47 APPENDIX VI 10. Track and Intensity forecast verification. Atlantic basin

48 APPENDIX VI 11. Track and Intensity forecast verification. Eastern North Pacific basin

49 APPENDIX VI 12. Other matters NOAA/NWS has been engaged in capacity-building efforts within the region. NWS IAO supports capacity-building, education and outreach activities in RA-IV through the WMO's Voluntary Contribution Program (VCP). Many of the projects are in support of the monitoring and warning of hurricanes operations of RSMC Miami, but the activities also support the routine forecasting and operations of NMHSs in the region. NOAA Tropical Training Desk: NOAA trains meteorologists from Central America and from the Caribbean each year at the Tropical Desk at the NCEP HPC. Fellows are trained on operational skills, including numerical weather prediction techniques. In addition, the Spanish-speaking chief instructor for the Tropical Desk delivered week-long specialized training courses for officials in Mexico and, this year, in El Salvador.

50 APPENDIX VI Recent and Current Activities of the RSMC New Delhi Tropical Cyclone Center 1. Background The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) jointly established the Panel on Tropical Cyclones in 1972 as an intergovernmental body. Its membership comprises countries affected by tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. Originally its member countries were Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Later, Maldives joined this Panel in 1982 followed by Sultanate of Oman in The main objective of the WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones is to promote measures to improve tropical cyclone warning systems in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. 2. Products and Services provided by RSMC New Delhi The broad functions of the Cyclone Warning Division and RSMC Tropical Cyclones New Delhi are as follows: Round the clock watch over the entire North Indian Ocean; Analysis and processing of global meteorological data for diagnostic and prediction purposes; Detection, tracking and prediction of cyclonic storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea; Issues of warning bulletins to various Govt. and Non Govt. agencies; Issue of Numbered Cyclone Warning Bulletins to AIR and Doordarshan and other TV Channels, and print media for wider coverage; Interaction with Disaster Management Agencies and providing critical information for emergency support services; Coordination with Govt. and other agencies at H.Q. level on all matters relating to cyclonic storms; Collection, processing and archival of all data pertaining to cyclonic storms viz. wind, storm surge, pressure, rainfall, satellite information etc.; Preparation of comprehensive reports on each cyclonic storm; Collection of all types of information on individual cyclonic storms from State Govts., Cyclone Warning Centres and other agencies; Continued research on storm surge, track and intensity prediction techniques; Issue of Tropical Weather Outlook once daily (at 0600 UTC) and an additional outlook at 1700 UTC in the event of a depression which is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm; Issue of cyclone advisories to the Panel countries 8 times a day; Issue of storm surge advisories; Implementation of the Regional Cyclone Operational Plan of WMO/ESCAP Panel; Exchange of composite data and bulletins pertaining to cyclonic storms with Panel countries. 3. Forecasting Systems Various strategies were adopted for improvement of analysis and prediction of cyclone. The tropical cyclone analysis, prediction and decision-making process was made by blending scientifically based conceptual models, dynamical & statistical models, meteorological datasets, technology and expertise. Conventional observational network, automatic weather stations (AWS), buoy & ship observations, cyclone detection radars and satellites were used for this purpose. A new weather analysis and forecasting system in a

51 APPENDIX VI digital environment was used to plot and analyze different weather parameters, satellite, Radar and numerical weather prediction (NWP) model products. An integrated fully automated forecasting environment facility was thus set up for this purpose. The manual synoptic weather forecasting was replaced by hybrid systems in which synoptic method could be overlaid on NWP models supported by modern graphical and GIS applications to produce: High quality analyses; Ensemble of forecasts from NWP models at different scales - global, regional and mesoscale; Prediction of intensity and track of tropical cyclone. The Tropical Cyclone Module installed in this forecasting system has the following facilities. Analysis of all synoptic, satellite and NWP model products for genesis, intensity and track monitoring and prediction; Preparation of past and forecast tracks upto 120 hrs; Depiction of uncertainty in track forecast. All the available data and products form various national and international sources were systematically considered for analysis and prediction of cyclones. Various data and products utilized for this purpose are as follows: Data and analysis Products through digitized system as mentioned above; Radar data and products from IMD s radar network and neighbouring countries; Satellite imageries and products from IMD and international centres; Dynamical and statistical Model products from various national and international centres; Data, analysis and forecast products from various national and international centres through internet. In order to maintain uniform methodology in cyclone monitoring, prediction and warning services IMD has prepared Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) manuals which will be very helpful for operational forecasters and researchers in Meteorology. IMD has prepared SOP on Weather Forecasting & Warning Services, SOP on cyclone and Handbook on Cyclone Monitoring & Services during the year Performance of Forecasts The tropical cyclone forecasts issued by IMD have been verified for the period following the Standard Operation Procedure as adopted over other Ocean basins. The results are shown in fig It is observed that the tropical cyclone track forecast errors have decreased significantly in recent years (fig.2). The rate of decrease in 24 hrs forecast error is 7.3 km/year. The average track forecast errors over the north Indian Ocean during are 130, 262 & 386 for 24, 48 & 72 hrs forecast period respectively. The track forecast skill has also improved significantly over the years as compared to climatology and persistence (CLIPER) model. The average skill during is about 27%, 39% and 50% for 24, 48 & 72 hrs forecast periods respectively. The track forecast skill has increased at the rate of 3% per year during for 24hrs forecast period. The tropical cyclone intensity (maximum sustained surface wind) forecast has improved significantly with decrease in intensity forecast error and increase in skill (fig.3). The 12 & 24 hr intensity forecast skill have increased at the rate of 6% & 9% per year in terms of reduction in Absolute Error (AE) and 10% & 8% per year in terms of reduction in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) respectively.

52 APPENDIX VI The average intensity forecast errors in terms of AE (RMSE) during recent three years ( ) are 11(14), 14(19) and 20(26) knots for 24, 48 and 72 hrs forecast period respectively. Track Forecast Error (km) Track Forecast Skill Fig.1 IMD s official Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error and Skill as compared to climatology and Persistence (CLIPER) model during Landfall forecast error (km) Landfall forecast error (hr) Fig.2 IMD s official Tropical Cyclone Landfall Forecast Errors during

53 APPENDIX VI Year Fig.3(a): IMD s official tropical cyclone intensity (maximum sustained wind) forecast error during Fig.3(b): IMD s official tropical cyclone intensity (maximum sustained wind) forecast error skill as compared to forecast by persistence method during

54 APPENDIX VI 5. Challenging issues in implementing/ improving the services 5.1 Timeliness of cyclone warning bulletins All the bulletins/warnings have been issued within 2.5 hours of observations, which is an improvement in lead time available to disaster management agencies in recent years. Fig.4. Average time consumed by RSMC, New Delhi to issue cyclone warning bulletin since last three hourly synoptic observations. 5.2 Change in Format of Cyclone Warning Bulletin The cyclone warning bulletins include forecast of track and intensity at +6, +12, +18, +24, +36, +48, +60 and +72 hours along with the past observed track and intensity. IMD introduced the forecast upto 72 hrs in December The cone of uncertainty in the forecast has been introduced with effect from the cyclone, WARD during December, It is helpful to the decision makers as it indicates the standard forecast errors in the track forecast for different periods like 12, 24, 36, 48, 60 and 72 hrs. The cyclone wind forecast in different quadrants of the cyclone was introduced during 2010 with effect from cyclone GIRI during October In this forecast apart from maximum winds, winds in each of the four geographical quadrants around the system are predicted. The graphical presentation of these products is also provided on IMD website and also through . It has been decided to extend forecast upto 120 hrs period as and when situation arises from the year Creation of RSMC website At present a common website ( exists for both national and international use. However, a dedicated RSMC website with defined static and dynamic pages and link to the websites of WMO ESCAP Panel member countries is under development and is likely to be hosted by the end of year Web e-atlas Best track data and figures of cyclones and depressions over north Indian Ocean since in digital form are available on electronic Atlas. The same has been hosted in IMD s website since Web e-atlas is now available online at with free access to users. 5.5 Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) for Southeast Asia IMD has agreed to be a regional centre for SWFDP for Southeast Asia and will provide cyclone related forecast and advisory services to Southeast Asian countries including Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia. 5.6 Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) on landfalling cyclones over the Bay of Bengal

55 APPENDIX VI From 2008 several national institutions participated for joint observational, communicational and NWP activities in the Forecast Demonstration Project on landfalling cyclones over Bay of Bengal during 15 October-30 November. 5.7 Cyclone Hazard Prone Districts Map of India As per the recommendations of the sub-committee constituted by National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the Cyclone Hazard Prone Districts Map of India has been prepared based on: frequency of cyclones affecting the districts. frequency of severe cyclones affecting the districts. probable maximum precipitation over the districts. maximum wind strength over the districts due to the cyclone. probable maximum storm surge over the districts 6. Training The annual training of two weeks duration for Cyclone forecasters from WMO/ESCAP panel countries along with the forecasters from Area Cyclone Warning Centres/Cyclone Warning Centres of India Meteorological Department was organized from 20 February to 2 March Cyclone forecasters, one each from Sri Lanka, Maldives and Thailand, participated in the same training programme. 7. Publications The following publications have been made by RSMC New Delhi during 2012: Report on cyclonic disturbances over the north Indian Ocean; Annual Cyclone Review Report; Regional Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan; FDP-cyclone implementation Plan 2012; Standard Operation Procedure- Weather Forecasting and Warning; Standard Operation Procedure- Cyclone; Handbook on Cyclone Warning and Services. 8. Future Plans Followings are the broad future plans for the year 2012: Workshop on Storm surge in December, 2012; Training of Tropical Cyclone Forecasters from WMO/ESCAP Panel countries in December, 2012; Introduction of Warning Bulletins through FM radio, community radio and HAM radio services during cyclone period;

56 APPENDIX VI Development of cyclone rainfall atlas by Cyclone Warning Research Centre, Chennai; IMD is planning hiring of instrumented aircraft for probing tropical cyclones both from core and periphery during

57 APPENDIX VI REVIEW of recent ( ) main ACTIVITIES and ACHIEVEMENTS at RSMC La Réunion I- Introduction The Direction of Météo-France in La Réunion has been formally designated as the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) - Tropical Cyclones for the South-West Indian Ocean during the 45th session of WMO/Executive Council (Geneva, June 1993), with effect on 1 July The area of responsibility of the RSMC includes the tropical and subtropical areas of the South-West Indian Ocean from the Equator to 40 S and west of 90 E to Africa (therefore including the Mozambique Channel). The primary mission of the RSMC/La Réunion is to provide appropriate guidance information (analyses, forecasts, prognostic reasoning,...) to the 15 Members of the AR I Tropical Cyclone Committee (Botswana, Comoros, France, Kenya, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zimbabwe) for all the tropical disturbances occurring within its area of responsibility. However, beyond this fundamental operational function, the RSMC has the role to become the regional focal centre for all the other activities conducted in the field of tropical cyclones such as, for instance, Training and Research/Development. In addition to its responsibilities as an RSMC, Météo-France La Réunion has numerous other national and international responsibilities. Within the GTS, it is a hub in the regional telecommunication network. In the framework of GMDSS, it has the responsibility of preparing marine forecasts and warnings for extensive portions of the METAREA VII-OI and METAREA VIII-S areas. Furthermore, with the role of assisting the MWO's of the whole region in the preparation of SIGMET messages for tropical cyclones, ICAO has designated RSMC/La Réunion as its Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre. Météo-France La Réunion takes also an active part in the International Buoys Programme in the Indian Ocean (IBPIO) and in the RAMA Programme (instrumented moored buoys network deployed in the near-equatorial Indian Ocean), implementing pressure recorders and regularly organizing the deployment in tropical or polar areas of drifters from ships calling at La Réunion. RSMC La Reunion issues different kinds of bulletins : Marine Warnings, «RSMC» Technical Bulletins, ICAO Advisories, «BUFR» bulletins, «best track» bulletins, and a daily bulletin about convective activity in the South-West Indian ocean that includes a diagnosis and prognosis of cyclogenesis for the next three days. The «RSMC Bulletins» are the most complete advisories. They provide, in particular, position and intensity forecasts with prognostic reasoning for the coming 120 hours (5 days forecast). Bulletins Headings Dissemination time Marine Warnings English WTIO20, 22, 24, 26 GTS 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC French WTIO21 Same RSMC Bulletins English WTIO30 GTS 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC French WTIO31 Same ICAO Advisories English - AFTN 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC FKIO20 GTS 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC "BUFR" Bulletins - ATIO01 GTS 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC "Best-Track" Bulletins - AXIO20 GTS generally within one month after the cyclone s demise Tropical outlook and English AWIO20 GTS 12 UTC Cyclone information French Bulletin AWIO21 GTS 12 UTC

58 APPENDIX VI II- Operational activities II-1. Tropical cyclone activities during past seasons Following the global trend observed in other regions since 2006 (with the exception of the Atlantic basin) tropical cyclone activity kept on going down in the South-West Indian Ocean area until 2011, bottoming with cyclone season which nearly broke the record of lowest activity in more than 50 years. With only three named storms plus an unnamed subtropical storm, season became the second least active on record (just behind season ). However, the ensuing season saw a notable rebound in TC activity with an above average level of activity. The season was especially busy in the Mozambique Channel where long-lived intense tropical cyclone FUNSO virtually became the most intense cyclone on record in the Channel, while Tropical Storm DANDO (of subtropical origin) became the first storm to affect southern Mozambique since DOMOINA in The remnants of DANDO thereafter triggered record rainfalls in northeastern South Africa with severe flooding in the Hoedspruit and Kruger Park area. Nevertheless the most severe impact of the season was, as often, observed in Madagascar, on the east coast of which intense tropical cyclone GIOVANNA hit. Formerly, GIOVANNA had been associated with an unprecedented super-explosive development with related estimated intensity jumping by 55 kt in 13 hours time. While season had closed with a very late tropical storm developing in June (TS KUENA becoming the third latest tropical storm on record in the basin), current season has opened very early with another much unusual system, as ANAIS became the first intense tropical cyclone ever observed in October in the southern Indian Ocean. II-2. Official track forecasts performances Benefiting from the sustained improvements brought to the numerical modelling that keep on bettering the handling and forecasting of TCs, the RSMC La Reunion has kept its leadership in TC track forecasting for its area of responsibility (the SouthWest Indian Ocean). And while raw seasonal track forecasts errors seem to go through a stalling phase since two or three years with a levelling off in the reducing trend of the track forecast errors, the reality is that improvements keep on as witnessed by the skill against persistence which still shows a positive trend during the past two seasons (which were more difficult in terms of track forecasting). III- Main achievements since last TCM-6 meeting III-1. Continued improvement of our LAM The dedicated high resolution Limited Area Model (called ALADIN-Réunion) developed specifically for the RSMC and being run at Toulouse (where the super-computer of Meteo-France is located) but followed and managed by the Cyclone Research Cell based at Meteo-France La Réunion is subject to continuous attention and modifications in order to improve its performances. First implemented in October 2006, it has been specifically designed to better handle the tropical systems with a vortex bogussing technique introduced and refined in December In January 2010 the resolution of the model was increased both horizontally (from 10 to 8 km) and vertically (from 60 to 70 levels). Last evolutions to the physics and to the numerical scheme have led to a spectacular reduction of the anomalous number of spurious cyclogeneses formerly generated by the model and to an improved skill in intensity prediction (outperforming the other models). III -2. Continuous upgrade of the TC forecaster workstation The cyclone module of the Synergie TC forecaster workstation has been the subject of additional developments/upgrade. The administration and ergonomy of the software has been revised and improved. The access to and display of geo-localized graphical products/imagery captured on specialized internet websites has been increased. First step and preliminary work towards the development of the next generation of the Meteo-France forecaster workstation called Synopsis have been initiated. Synopsis is expected to replace Synergie by The RSMC is involved for the specification and development of the cyclone module of Synopsis. III-3. Tropical Cyclone advisories graphical (TCAG) Following the request from ICAO, RSMC La Reunion has developed a new product for aviation, i.e. a graphical version of the Tropical Cyclone Advisories. This new product has been operationally implemented in December 2011.

59 APPENDIX VI Example of a Graphical Tropical Cyclone Advisory issued by TCAC La Réunion for TC Giovanna (13/02/2012 at 06 utc). III-4. Probabilistic cones of uncertainty Another new graphical product was also operationally implemented in December 2011 for inclusion on the RSMC website : probabilistic cones of uncertainty around the official track forecasts of the RSMC. This innovative product was the operational application of a research work undertaken by one of the TC forecaster of the RSMC in partnership with the Cyclone Research Cell. Instead of including a cone of uncertainty based on the average error climatology, it was considered to try to develop a more sophisticated method through an innovative probabilistic approach which would more realistically take into account the real degree of uncertainty of each individual TC track forecast situation. The idea was to use the spread information included in the ensemble forecasts (EPS from the ECMWF) to better assess the uncertainty and construct an EPS-based probabilistic adaptative cone to convey this uncertainty. The research work undertaken demonstrated that the information contained in the spread of the ensemble indeed had skill compared to climatology. Following the publication in 2011 of a paper in Weather and Forecasting ( Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts, T. Dupont et al., Weather and Forecasting Volume 26, Issue 5, October 2011, pp ), developments were made to implement operationally probabilistic cones of uncertainty as a graphical product superimposed on the forecast track map on the RSMC website. This work was achieved for the beginning of the cyclone season.

60 APPENDIX VI Significant reduction of the size of the uncertainty cone in the case of a storm with high predictability (TC Giovanna) when using a probabilistic EPS ensemble-based cone (right image : RSMC forecast of 10/02/2012 at 00 utc observed track in black) compared to a simple climatological uncertainty cone based on averaged track prediction errors (left image : RSMC forecast of 09/02/2012 at 12 utc with climatological uncertainty cone). III-5. Adopting/adjusting a new pressure-wind relationship In 2007 Knaff&Zehr proposed a new "universal" pressure-winds relationship (PWR) that would take into account most of the parameters influencing the pressure winds relationship within tropical systems (i.e. storm size, environmental pressure, latitude, speed of movement). In 2008 a modified version was then proposed by Courtney&Knaff (C&K) that could be more practically used by operational Centers. A basic evaluation of these new PWRs against the formerly used Atkinson&Holiday PWR was undertaken at RSMC La Réunion using a small set of joint pressurewinds observations gathered during storms events having directly affected islands in the SouthWest Indian Ocean region. Following this evaluation, a proposal was made at the 2010 RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee meeting to operationally test the C&K pressure-wind relationship in the SWIO basin. However the fact that the C&K PWR does not take into account the RMW (radius of maximum wind) thereafter rapidly appeared as a significant limitation for its operational use. One of the TC forecaster at the RSMC had developed an Excel tool to calculate inner wind radii from outer wind radii (near gale or gale) using the Holland (1980) parametric wind profile. It appeared that this tool could also be used to adjust the central pressure derived by C&K in order to get a better balanced vortex (highly dependant in particular of the radius of maximum winds). III-6. Hosting IWTC-VII Meteo-France La Reunion has organized the seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VII) from 15 to 20 November 2010 the meeting and its some 120 participants coming from 40 countries being hosted in a hotel of the west coast of La Réunion Island. It was the first time that this special event took place in the Indian Ocean and it was also the first time that it was organized and hosted by an RSMC. III-7. Training activities RSMC La Réunion has hosted and organized the 5th RA I Training Course on Tropical Cyclones (2 13 November 2010, with the support of WMO) for the forecasters of the 15 NMHSs of the RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee member states. III-8. Continued implication in the RA I SWFDP project Meteo-France and RSMC La Reunion are active partners of the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) that has been implemented with WMO for southern African countries. Meteo-France involvement includes provision of all the RSMC bulletins/products (for the tropical cyclone hazard) and the provision of a number of NWP fields both from deterministic models (especially the ALADIN-Réunion Limited Area Model) and from ensemble prediction with a variety of products like probabilities of exceeding pre-defined thresholds of winds or rainfalls, etc III-9. Satellite re-analysis project (REDO-SAT) RSMC La Réunion has started in 2011 a re-analysis project based on the Dvorak re-analysis of past satellite imagery and additional use of other data that were not available in real-time (like microwave imagery). This project, strongly supported by the last IWTCs and IBTrACS Workshop recommendations, has become feasible thanks to the disposal of the HURSAT database, an archive

61 APPENDIX VI of TC-dedicated satellite images developed by the NCDC (NOAA National Climate Data Center Asheville). Via a treatment of the NetCDF format of the data, in-house visualization of the geo-localized images on our Synergie workstations has been rendered possible, enabling the use of all the facilities and tools of Synergie for re-analysis purpose. A test season ( ) has been used to validate the methodology for the re-analysis. The project has now really started and will last several years. III-10. Work on storm surge With the planned implementation of a Storm Surge Watch Scheme in the RA I/South-West Indian Ocean region, RSMC La Reunion has strongly committed itself to work on this topic, re-activating the Météo-France storm surge model in order to enable its use in real-time during the cyclone season (on February 13 th 2012 the RSMC included for the first time a deterministic forecast of storm surge in its technical bulletin before the landfall of TC Giovanna on the east coast of Madagascar). Storm surge simulation for TC Giovanna on 13 February 2012 at 18 utc. By the end of 2012 an Atlas of storm surges for the Southwest basin of the Indian Ocean should be completed (in digital format) covering all the coastal areas in the basin, with the related development of a web interface making the data available to supply the user, mainly the RSMC TC forecasters, with storm surge probability maps. This requires the development of a simulated data base from the Météo-France storm surge model, making vary the cyclone-related parameters likely to influence the storm surge: i.e. point of landfall, cyclone track (angle of attack on the coast), cyclone intensity (maximum wind), size and structure of the cyclone, speed of movement In order to reduce the number of simulations and the calculation time required, tests were carried out with steady wind to identify the most sensitive areas, thus generating a first mapping of the storm surge risk and vulnerable areas. The work has been slightly delayed by issues concerning bathymetry. It turned out that many errors/aberrations existed within the available bathymetries. A tedious work was therefore necessary to check the whole bathymetry along the coasts of Madagascar and Mozambique, in particular the land-sea limit, and to introduce manual corrections as some of the grid-point values where erroneously positioned inland, thus artificially closing some bays.

62 APPENDIX VI Recent and Current Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 1. Background The RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center (referred to below as the Center) is a Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) that carries out specialized activities in analyzing and forecasting tropical cyclones (TCs) in the western North Pacific and the South China Sea (100E - 180, 0-60N) within the framework of the World Weather Watch (WWW) Programme of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The Center was established at the headquarters of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) in July 1989, following a designation by the WMO Executive Council at its 40th session (Geneva, June 1988). 2. Products and services provided by RSMC Tokyo The Center disseminates the RSMC bulletins listed below via the GTS and the AFTN when: a TC of tropical storm (TS) intensity or higher exists in the area of responsibility; a TC is expected to reach TS intensity or higher in the area within 24 hours. RSMC bulletins via GTS (1) RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory: TC analysis and forecast (2) RSMC Guidance for Forecast: Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output (3) SAREP: satellite analysis using Dvorak method (4) RSMC Prognostic Reasoning: brief reasoning for TC forecast (5) RSMC Tropical Cyclone Best Track: TC post-analysis RSMC bulletins via AFTN (6) Tropical Cyclone Advisory for SIGMET: analysis and forecast to support ICAO s Meteorological Watch Offices in preparing SIGMET In addition to the RSMC bulletins above, the Center provides a wide range of TC related information by such means as JMA website, Numerical Typhoon Prediction (NTP) website and WMO Information System (WIS) Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR).

63 APPENDIX VI 3. Forecasting systems Table 1: Planned improvement of JMA s NWP models Operational NWP Models GSM Global Spectral Model WEPS Week Ensemble Prediction System TEPS Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System Current Planned Resolution TL959L60 (20km) TL959L100 (20km) Initial time 00,06,12,18UTC > Forecast period 216hour for 12UTC 84hour for else 264hour for 12UTC 84hour for else Resolution TL319L60 (55km) TL479L100 (40km) Initial time 12UTC 00,12UTC Member x 2 Forecast period 216hour 264hour Resolution TL319L60 (55km) TL479L100 (40km) Initial time 00,06,12,18UTC > Member Forecast period 132hour > In the TC advisories, forecasts of TC s Center position, Radius of probability circle, and Intensity (Central pressure, Maximum sustained wind, Peak gust and Storm warning area (50-knot wind probability for domestic use)) are issued. In the JMA s forecasting system, first guess of TC track and intensity forecasts are estimated automatically utilizing the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models outputs and guidance derived from NWP s outputs. The JMA s Global Spectral Model (GSM TL959L60), upgraded on 21 November 2007, has approximately 20 km horizontal resolution and 60 vertical layers while the typhoon ensemble prediction system (TEPS TL319L60), which became operational in February 2008, has 11 members with approximately 55 km horizontal resolution and 60 vertical layers. Forecasters usually consider biases and tendencies of NWP model outputs, statistics and environmental field around TC to decide the final forecasts in the operational procedures. JMA s super computer system was upgraded on 5 June 2012 and NWP models utilized in TC forecasts will be improved in two years (Table 1). 4. Performance of forecasts 4.1 Improvement of TC Track Forecasts Annual mean position errors of JMA s operational TC track forecasts are shown at Figure 1. TC track forecasts of 24-hour (since 1982), 48-hour (since 1988) and 72-hour (since 1997) are steadily improving although with some annual fluctuations. 96-hour and 120-hour track forecasts have been provided since Improvement of TC Intensity Forecasts In contrast to the TC track forecasts, JMA s operational TC intensity forecasts presently issued up to 72-hour ahead, do not have notable improvements. Rapid development and decay of TCs in particular remains difficult to be forecast with adequate accuracy.

64 APPENDIX VI h h 72h h 24h Figure 1: Annual mean position errors of 24-, 48- and 72-hour operational track forecasts 5. Training activities for the members in the region One of the activities of the Center includes providing on-the-job training seminars inviting forecasters of NMHSs of Typhoon Committee Members. This annual training seminar, started in 2001, gives opportunities to participants to learn TC operations such as cloud analysis, Dvorak analysis including the early-stage Dvorak analysis (EDA) and TC forecasting, storm surges, quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). To follow up the Typhoon Committee s Annual Operating Plan 2012 to develop collaborative relationship with WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP), its framework was introduced in the training. 6. Challenging issues in implementing/improving the services 6.1 WMO Information System (WIS) RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center as Data Collection or Production Center (DCPC) As designated by Sixteenth WMO Congress in June 2011, RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center has started service of DCPC of WIS with a Global Information System Center (GISC) and the other seven DCPCs in JMA. WIS is a new framework for the collection and sharing of information in support of all WMO and related international programmes, and DCPC has a role of taking care of programme-specific activity Global Telecommunication System (GTS) and Data Discovery, Access and Retrieval (DAR) The GTS continues to serve time- and operation-critical information as an important part of WIS, while Internet-based information services are being streamlined under comprehensive catalogue for DAR. Existing Internet data services by JMA was served through a new server of GISC Tokyo in the framework of WIS DAR. The Center s RSMC Data Serving System (RSMC DSS) was terminated at the end of March 2012, and data provided by RSMC DSS has been provided as WIS DAR since August The JMA s GSM product with 0.25 degree resolution (surface layer) has been provided as WIS DAR since December JMA WIS Prototype Service (Service for MTSAT imagery and NWP product with the SATAID software) was reformed to JMA SATAID Service (

65 APPENDIX VI 6.2 JMA Numerical Typhoon Prediction (NTP) website Since October 2004, the Center has officially operated a Numerical Typhoon Prediction (NTP) website in cooperation with eight NWP centers: BoM (Australia), MSC (Canada), CMA (China), ECMWF, DWD (Germany), KMA (Republic of Korea), UKMO (UK) and NCEP (US). The NTP website provides predictions of tropical cyclone tracks derived from models of the major NWP centers in order to assist the NMHSs of Typhoon Committee Members in their tropical cyclone forecasting and warning services. The website is available only to registered organizations, including the NMHSs of Typhoon Committee Members and participating NWP centers. The site s main content is as follows: 1) Predictions of tropical cyclone tracks, in table and chart format, from participating NWP centers together with that from JMA. Ensemble mean prediction with any combination of products is also available; 2) NWP model products, in chart format, from the participating NWP centers; 3) Results of satellite image analysis (early-stage Dvorak analysis and regular Dvorak analysis); 4) Distribution maps and time-series charts of storm surges. 6.3 Regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) suitable for the Typhoon Committee region Following the recommendation by the 41st session of the Typhoon Committee (Chiang Mai, 2009), the Center conducted a survey in June 2009, and 12 Typhoon Committee Members responded by the end of The survey s aim was to collect information on the present status of Typhoon Committee Members in using storm surge models in order to develop future plan for the establishment of a regional Storm Surge Watch Scheme (SSWS) suitable for the Typhoon Committee region. After reviewing the survey responses, the Center decided to provide Typhoon Committee Members with distribution maps and time-series charts of storm surges. For this purpose, 7 Typhoon Committee Members provided the Center with bathymetric data of their surrounding areas together with sea level data from past measurements. With the provided data, the Center has developed the storm surge model suitable for the Typhoon Committee region and verified the results of the model. The Center started to provide storm surge distribution maps through its NTP website on 1 June From 2012 typhoon season, the Center has provided storm surge time series charts at one point for each Member upon its request (forecasting points to be increased if so requested by Typhoon Committee Members). Information on storm surges was shared through the annual Typhoon Committee attachment training at the Center, 7th TCP/JCOMM Regional Workshop on Storm Surge and Wave Forecasting (Macao, China) in Verification results of the model were shown in the Technical Review published in 2012 (

66 APPENDIX VI Figure 2: Storm surge distribution maps and time series charts in the NTP website. 6.4 Contribution to the WMO North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP) Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Information Home Page was launched by JMA in 2010 for the purpose of providing guidance of tropical cyclone forecasts in near real-time for TYC Members, using the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) Cyclone XML (CXML) data, under the joint project of World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and Tropical Cyclone Program (TCP); North Western Pacific Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Project (NWP-TCEFP). This Home page (NWP-TCEFP Home page) provides deterministic and ensemble TC track forecasts, and strike probability maps based on ensemble TC track forecasts. In 2011 typhoon season, improved system such as the display switch of all ensemble or deterministic data was provided. Questionnaire about effectiveness of EPS was sent to Typhoon Committee Members from WMO in December 2011 for the improvement of the NWP-TCEFP Home Page. The results of questionnaires about effectiveness of EPS summarized by the WMO WWRP/TCP and of another questionnaire carried out by GIFS-TIGGE WG showed that addition of elements such as surface wind speeds and precipitation to the website will be required. These products could be implemented, should the product specification be considered and corresponding EPS data including the extended CXML be developed with the support of data providers. Another feedback through the SWFDP in Southeast Asia will be also given to the NWP-TCEFP Home page. Under this project, evaluation of tropical cyclogenesis prediction in the western North Pacific on medium-range timescales using the TIGGE data and on intraseasonal timescales using the JMA 1-month EPS will start. TC genesis prediction over the western North Pacific during the 2009 and 2010 seasons will be investigated.

67 APPENDIX VI 6.5 The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project in South-east Asia (SWFDP-SeA) The SWFDP is designed as a series of sub-regional projects whose scope is to test the usefulness of NWP products produced by global and regional meteorological centers with the goal of improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in countries where sophisticated model outputs are currently not used. The Center participates in a subregional project in Southeast Asia (SWFDP-SeA) as the Regional Center for Tropical Cyclone / Typhoon Forecasting Support, whose role is to provide typhoon related products. The Center input the information to the Regional Subproject Management Team (RSMT) meeting (Ha Noi, 2011) to contribute the development of Regional Subproject Implementation Plan (RSIP). Besides, the Center provided the training materials on JMA ensemble prediction systems and the use of their products, including NWP-TCEFP products in the NWP-TCEFP Home page, to Training Workshop of SWFDP-SeA (Hong Kong, 2011). A feedback on the NWP-TCEFP Home page through SWFDP-SeA is expected from participating NMHSs in developing countries during the demonstration phase. 6.6 Best-track Consolidation Meeting in Typhoon Committee Typhoon Committee best track consolidation meeting was held in Hong Kong, China, December Typhoon Committee 43rd session (Jeju, 2011) and 44th session (Hangzhou, 2012) decided to follow up the recommendation of the meeting, by consolidating the operational procedures of tropical cyclone analysis for inclusion in the Typhoon Committee Operational Manual (TOM), exchange and compare the historical best-tack datasets, including CI numbers if available. Four designated contact points from JMA, CMA, HKO and JTWC are currently working on amendments of the TOM to include their operational procedures of tropical cyclone analysis into it and preparation for best-track datasets including digitization of CI numbers available in hardcopy only. 6.7 Taskforce on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis for Upgrading Tropical Depressions Typhoon Committee 44th session (Hangzhou, 2012) recommended to establish a Taskforce on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Analysis for Upgrading Tropical Depressions (TD), to be led by Hong Kong, China as the coordinator, with members from China, Japan (RSMC), the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and other interested Typhoon Committee Members. The primary objective is to eliminate or reduce the discrepancies experienced in the timing of upgrade through a scientific and objective approach. The Terms of Reference for the Taskforce are: (a) to study and identify the reasons behind any systematic biases in the timing of upgrading of TD in operational warnings issued by various warning centres; (b) to explore practical communication channels for sharing of data, observations or information to reduce discrepancies associated with data availability constraints; and (c) to report findings to Working Group of Meteorology, including recommendations for follow-up actions. At present, item (a) is being implemented by the taskforce members. From the RSMC s point of view, real-time exchange of quality-assured observation data including their metadata, currently not on the GTS, among the members will be given priority to solve this issue. 6.8 Coordination on the transboundary storms Following the TCM-6 meeting which reaffirmed the intent for all the tropical cyclone forecasts in a basin should be completed by the RSMC/TCWC responsible for that basin, the Center has operated the procedure based on the above discussion in issuance of TC advisories for TCs crossing boundaries since 22 February Definition of maximum sustained wind speed of tropical cyclones

68 APPENDIX VI Following the TCM-6 meeting, the Center incorporated the summary of the WMO Wind Averaging Study submitted by Systems Engineering Australia into the Typhoon Committee Operational Manual 2011 edition as Guidelines for converting between various wind averaging periods in tropical cyclone conditions Switchover of MTSAT Meteorological Mission On 1 July 2010, the Center switched over imaging satellite operations to the Multifunctional Transport Satellite-2 (MTSAT-2, also known as Himawari-7), which is located at 145 degrees east, from MTSAT-1R (Himawari-6), which is located at 140 degrees east and now operates as an in-orbit stand-by for MTSAT Migration of SAREP and RADOB to BUFR The Center started disseminating SAREP in BUFR format via the GTS in November 2005 and RADOB in BUFR format in September 2006 in response to the WMO migration plan. As agreed by Typhoon Committee Members at the Typhoon Committee 41st session (Chiang Mai, 2009), the Center stopped providing alphanumeric SAREP and RADOB data at the end of In order to assist SAREP users in their TC monitoring and forecasting, the Center started in June 2009 to post the results of not only regular Dvorak analysis as included in SAREP reports but also those of EDA on the NTP website Implementation of Amendment 75 to ICAO Annex 3 concerning Tropical cyclone advisories for SIGMET TC advisories for SIGMET (FKPQ30-55 RJTD) issued by the Center (TCAC Tokyo) has been changed according to the implementation of Amendment 75 since November Identification of unnamed cyclones; the term NIL was replaced by NN. 7. Plans for the future 7.1 Objective Tropical Cyclone Satellite Analysis To improve operational tropical cyclone analysis, the Center is currently developing objective tropical cyclone satellite analysis using MTSAT called Cloud grid information objective Dvorak analysis (CLOUD) and plans to introduce it into operation in The unique points of CLOUD are that it covers both EDA and Dvorak analysis and that it can be used with cloud grid information (CGI) an objective cloud product operationally prepared by the Center since June The method has been provisionally verified and shown to have a level of accuracy comparable to those of manual EDA and Dvorak analysis. Objective microwave analyses for complementary intensity estimation are also to be introduced together with CLOUD. 7.2 Tropical Cyclone Satellite Re-analysis Responding to the recommendation of the Typhoon Committee best track consolidation meeting (Hong Kong, 2010) and the discussion in the IBTrACS, the Center started tropical cyclone satellite re-analysis for the period since 1981 in Tropical cyclone advisories for SIGMET in graphical format As indicated in the Manual of Aeronautical Meteorological Practice (Doc 8896), the information on TCs in graphical format provided by TCAC Tokyo is shown in the JMA website ( In addition to this, based on the techniques utilizing the CGI for the analysis of existing CB areas, TCAC Tokyo plans to provide graphical

69 APPENDIX VI Tropical cyclone advisories (TCAs) according to MODEL TCG in the Appendix 1 of ICAO Annex 3 in a few years. 7.4 Tropical cyclone advisories in Common Alert Protocol (CAP) The Common Alert Protocol (CAP) is an international standard format for emergency alerting and public warning. The Center is developing draft CAP profiles for TC advisories. 8. Publications The Center issues the following publications both of which are available at RSMC Tokyo website. 1) Annual Report on the Activities of the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center (yearly basis, 2) RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center Technical Review (as-needed basis,

70 APPENDIX VII Proposed description of the Terms of Reference of TC RSMCs and TCWCs for inclusion in the new WMO GDPFS Manual This activity includes Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres with activity specialization in tropical cyclones (TC RSMCs) and associated National Meteorological Centres (NMCs) within the areas of responsibility of the respective TC RSMCs. In RA V, TC RSMC Nadi shares the region with Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres (TCWCs) under the arrangement in the Association. These regional networks are maintained in collaboration with the regional tropical cyclone committees. The TC RSMCs, TCWCs, their areas of responsibility for the tropical cyclone analysis and forecasts and regional tropical cyclone committees are listed in the Table xx. TC RSMCs and TCWCs with responsibility for tropical cyclone analysis and forecasts, shall: a) Monitor continuously meteorological phenomena such as convective activities to predict or detect tropical cyclone formation; b) Analyze and forecast tropical cyclones in a scientific manner based on all available observational data and forecasting guidance, including NWP/EPS and satellite-based products c) Issue tropical cyclone advisories containing analyses and forecasts of tropical cyclones to associated NMCs; d) As appropriate, add information in tropical cyclone advisories on hazardous phenomena associated with tropical cyclones such as heavy rains, strong winds and storm surges; e) Name tropical cyclones when they have been analyzed with maximum wind speeds of 34 knots or more; f) Conduct post-event analysis of tropical cyclones based on quality-assured observational data and issue best-track data within an appropriate period of time (preferably on annual basis).. Issue such data to the tropical cyclone community including the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship. g) Promote research and development (R&D) and training in tropical cyclone analysis, forecasting and warning techniques. National Meteorological Centres (NMCs) associated in activity shall: - Issue forecasts and warnings of tropical cyclones to threatened communities; - Coordinate with national agencies responsible for disaster risk reduction; - Provide relevant TC RSMC (or TCWC) with observational data of tropical cyclones on a real-time basis. All TC RSMCs and TCWC Darwin, which are designated as a Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre (TCAC) by regional air navigation agreement within the framework of the tropical cyclone watch of ICAO, shall issue Tropical Cyclone Advisories for aviation in accordance with the provisions made in ICAO Annex 3- Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation/WMO Technical Regulations [C3.1]. SIGMET information concerning tropical cyclones shall be issued by Meteorological Watch Offices (MWO) for concerned flight information region and should be based on the tropical cyclone advisory information issued by the TCACs. Members holding Metareas of their responsibility under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System (GMDSS) protocols established by the International Convention of Safety Of Life At Sea (SOLAS) shall include information on tropical cyclones as needed in their GMDSS maritime weather information for shipping.

71 APPENDIX VII Table xx Regional Centers, Boundary of area and Regional Tropical Cyclones Committees Region Regional Center and Boundary of area Tropical Cyclone Committee South-West Indian Ocean RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone Centre RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee Western North Pacific and the South China Sea RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Centre EQ 100E, 60N 100E, 60N 180E, EQ 180E, EQ 100E ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee North Indian Ocean RSMC New Delhi - Tropical Cyclone Centre WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones North America, Central America and the Caribbean RSMC Miami - Hurricane Centre RA IV Hurricane Committee South Pacific and South East Indian Ocean RSMC Nadi- Tropical Cyclone Centre TCWC (Darwin, Perth, Brisbane, Wellington, Port Moresby and Jakarta) RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee Central North Pacific RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Centre

72 APPENDIX VII