Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office

Transcription

1 Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office Morning Situation Report Wednesday, January 23, 2019

2 State Emergency Operations Center Activation Level Level 3 Monitoring

3 SERT On-Call Personnel Position Personnel Phone Operations Chief Ashley Davis (850) Watch Officer Amy Godsey (850) Duty Officer Justin Lazzara (850) Operations Officer- Day Woody Harvey (850) Operations Officer- Swing Phillip Thomas (850) Operations Officer- Night Jim Lawhon (850) Meteorologist Michael Spagnolo (850) Plans Chief Ryan Lock (850) Logistics Chief Jeff Swain (850) Human Services Director Pam Hughes (850) Emergency Services Director Rob Dietrich (850) Infrastructure Branch Director Danny Kilcollins (850) ESF 8 On-Call Christie Mathison (850) Christie.Mathison@flhealth.gov Public Information Officer Lauren Engel (850) Lauren.Engel@em.myflorida.com DEM Finance and Admin Phyllis Vaughn (850) Phyllis.Vaughn@em.myflorida.com

4 Regional Coordination Team Team County Location Status / Activities RC Manager: Jim Roberts Leon TPNPP Exercise Region 1: Wanda Stafford Escambia Capabilities Assessment Region 2: Brian Bradshaw Wakulla EOC Advisory Committee Meeting Region 3: Gina Lambert St Johns AWR347 Climate Adaptation Planning Training Region 4: Paul Siddall Hillsborough County EM Visit Region 5: Claudia Baker Orange County EM Visit Region 6: Jodie Fiske Miami-Dade TPNPP Exercise Region 7: Willie Bouie Monroe TPNPP Exercise R3 covering Lake, Seminole, & Volusia R4 covering Brevard, Orange, & Osceola R7 covering Indian River, Martin, & St. Lucie RC Status Normal Operations Delayed Response Out of Service / Unavailable

5 Meteorology Summary Threat R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 Lightning M M M (late) M (late) M (late) M (late) Flooding Damaging Wind L L L (late) L (late) L (late) L (late) Hail Tornado L L L (late) L (late) L (late) L (late) Freeze Fire L M M M H H H Fog Rip Currents H H M L M L H Space Weather Lake Okeechobee Status: Keetch-Byram Drought Index: Very Low Elevation is at ft. 204 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry) Today s Weather Map Chance of Rain Tonight Forecast Rainfall Next 24 Hours

6 Meteorology Summary Statewide Overview, Next 24 Hours: With a warm front now north of the state, mild and humid conditions are expected today statewide. A strong cold front will cross the Panhandle and Big Bend this evening and move into Northeast and Central Florida late tonight. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy statewide. Winds are breezy today and a Wind Advisory is in effect for the western Panhandle. Winds will be out of the south/southeast at mph with some gusts as high as 35 mph. Through mid-afternoon, rain chances will only be 20-40% and confined to just isolated showers. By late afternoon as the cold front approaches the western Panhandle, showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous. A line of thunderstorms will be associated with the cold front and will track from west to east. The best guess for peak impacts will be 5-8 PM CST in Pensacola, 7-9 PM CST in Panama City, and 11 PM 2 AM EST in Tallahassee. A damaging wind gust or brief tornado may accompany the squall line, with the best chance across the western Panhandle as the line of thunderstorms will gradually weaken as it moves east. By the early morning hours the broken line of showers and thunderstorms will be moving into Northeast Florida and approaching the Nature Coast and Tampa Bay. An isolated strong thunderstorm is still possible near sunrise as the cold front moves into the west coast. Behind the cold front, winds will shift to the Northwest at mph. Low temperatures will be in the 40s in the Panhandle, the 50s in the Big Bend, the 60s in Northeast and Central Florida, and the 70s in South Florida. Severe Weather Threat Today/Tonight High Temperatures Today

7 Coastal Hazards / Hydrology Rip Currents: Breezy southerly winds will result in a high rip current risk at Panhandle beaches and in Southeast Florida. A moderate risk is expected at all other Atlantic beaches. A High Surf Advisory is also in effect from Escambia to Bay County. Wave heights will build to 4-8. The rip current risk will remain low along the West Coast. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Lake Okeechobee average elevation is feet, which is 2.41 feet below normal for this time of year. The top of the water short management level is feet this time of year. Rip Current Outlook Hydrology: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates and the Apalachicola River at Blountstown. Both locations will be in minor flood stage for much of this week. With a widespread 1-2 of rain tonight across North Florida, several rivers are forecast to rise into action stage. However, none are forecast to reach flood stage. With breezy onshore winds along the Gulf Coast, some minor flooding is likely at high tide this afternoon. Tides will be running 1-2 above normal, but may be as high as 3 above normal in Apalachee Bay. For more information on specific rivers, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Current & Forecast River Conditions

8 Drought & Fire Weather Fire Weather: Breezy winds (from the south at mph, gusts to 35 mph) and drought conditions will result in a high wildfire threat across the Peninsula today. Relative humidity will remain well above critical levels today. A moderate threat is expected in North Florida where soils are more wet from recent rains, but winds will be just as breezy. A County Burn Ban remains in effect for Gulf County in the Panhandle and 5 other counties that are in effect year-round. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 204 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry). There are currently 9 Florida counties with a KBDI above 500, all in South Florida. Drought Monitor Active Wildfires (Florida Forest Service)

9 Space Weather Current Sunspots Solar Flare Risk Active Watches & Warnings Past 24 hours M-class: 1% Geomagnetic Storm: Yes (G1 Watch) A3 Solar Flare X-class: 1% Radiation Storm: No No Radio Blackouts 48 Hour Geomagnetic Forecast 1/23 1/24 Coronal holes on the Earthfacing side of the sun Max Kp= 5 (G1) Chance of minor activity = 20% severe activity = 1% Max Kp= 4 (G0) Chance of minor activity = 25% severe activity = 5% Space Weather: Newly developed Sunspot 2733 is small and unorganized. The risk for a significant solar flare is near zero. A large coronal hole along the sun s equator is emitting a stream of solar wind which is expected to impact Earth s magnetic field later today. This may result in minor geomagnetic storming tonight and early tomorrow. However, any impacts will be confined to polar regions. The space weather threat to Florida remains very low.

10 SWO Communications Systems & Contact Information Equipment Contact Status Comments Phone: or Operational Fax: Operational Operational SWO Tracker: Operational SLERS: DEM Statewide Operational NAWAS: State Watch Office Operational EMnet Message: FL.000- State Watch Office Operational EMnet Voice: FL SWP- State Watch Office Operational State EAS: LP.1 Stations via Emnet Operational FL Interoperable Network: SOFEOC Operational Website: Operational WebEOC: Operational Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: