Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office

Transcription

1 Florida Division of Emergency Management State Watch Office Morning Situation Report Wednesday, November 14, 2018

2 State Emergency Operations Center Activation Level Level 3 Monitoring

3 SERT On-Call Personnel Position Personnel Phone Operations Chief Ashley Davis (850) Watch Officer Axel Runtschke (850) Duty Officer Taylor Cheney (850) Operations Officer- Day Shane Matthews (850) Operations Officer- Swing Woody Harvey (850) Operations Officer- Night Jim Lawhon (850) Meteorologist Cameron Young (850) Plans Chief Laura Waterman (850) Logistics Chief Lt. Col. Knox (850) Human Services Director Pam Hughes (850) Emergency Services Director Rob Dietrich (850) Infrastructure Branch Director Danny Kilcollins (850) ESF 8 On-Call Kenneth DeCastro (850) Kenneth.DeCastro@flhealth.gov Public Information Officer Alberto Moscoso (850) Alberto.Moscoso@em.myflorida.com DEM Finance and Admin Tara Walters (850) Tara.Walters@em.myflorida.com

4 Regional EM Liaison Team Regional EM Liaisons County Location Status / Activities REMLT Manager: Jim Roberts Leon Office Admin Region 1: Wanda Stafford Jackson County EM Visit Region 2: Brian Bradshaw Leon Michael Follow-up Region 3: Gina Lambert St Johns LEPC Meeting Region 4: Paul Siddall In Region Off & Monitoring Region 5: Vacant VACANT See Coverage Region 6: Jodie Fiske Manatee Region 4/6 IMT Meeting Region 7: Willie Bouie Palm Beach Office Admin R3 covering Lake, Seminole, & Volusia R4 covering Brevard, Orange, & Osceola R7 covering Indian River, Martin, & St. Lucie Status Normal Operations Delayed Response Out of Service / Unavailable

5 Meteorology Summary Threat R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 Lightning M M M M M Flooding L L Damaging Wind Hail Tornado Freeze M Fire L L L L L Fog M L L Rip Currents M M H L M L M Space Weather Lake Okeechobee Status: Keetch-Byram Drought Index: Very Low Elevation is at ft. 360 (-3) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry) Today s Weather Map Rainfall Amounts Next 24 Hours

6 Meteorology Summary Statewide Overview, Next 24 Hours: Widespread rain showers are expected to continue across the Panhandle and Big Bend today and tonight. It will be a very chilly rain across much of the Panhandle today as highs range from the upper 40s to lower 50s in the western Panhandle to the lower 60s in the Big Bend. Rain will gradually shift east through the day into the night. Tonight will be the coldest night of the season so far in the western Panhandle. A Freeze Warning is in effect for Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties tonight. Lows will range from the lower 30s in the western Panhandle to the middle 40s in the Big Bend. For the Peninsula, a 40-50% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during the afternoon through the overnight hours. Widespread severe weather is not expected in these areas, but gusty winds and locally heavy downpours may be possible in stronger storms. Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures in the middle to upper 80s. Lows overnight will range from the mid 60s north to mid 70s south. Forecast High Temperatures Chance of Rain Today

7 Coastal Hazards / Hydrology Rip Currents: Gusty onshore winds and increased wave heights and ocean swells will result in a high risk of rip currents for Northeast Florida beaches today Onshore winds and rough surf will result in a moderate risk of rip currents for all Panhandle and remaining East Coast beaches. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Rip Current Outlook Lake Okeechobee average elevation is feet, which is 1.49 feet below normal for this time of year. Hydrology: River Flood Warnings are in effect for the Shoal, Chipola, and Apalachicola Rivers, which are expected to rise into minor flood stage by Thursday. The Chipola River at Altha could rise into moderate flood stage. The lower Choctawhatchee River could rise into minor flood stage this weekend. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2 are expected over the next 24 hours. This, combined with the 1-4 that fell on Monday will keep the threat for nuisance flooding of poor-drainage and lowlying areas elevated. For more information on specific rivers, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Current & Forecast River Conditions

8 Tropical Weather Tropics: A tropical wave near Puerto Rico, designated Invest 96L, has become much more disorganized compared to previous days. Increased wind shear both near and ahead of the system along with land interaction will likely inhibit development, and the National Hurricane Center has reduced the odds of development to 10% (low) during the next 5 days. This system is expected to move northwest towards the Bahamas over the next few days and then steered away from the U.S. by a frontal system approaching the U.S. Eastern Seaboard. For more information regarding the tropics, please visit

9 Drought & Fire Weather Fire Weather: Wet weather across much of Northwest Florida will keep the wildfire threat very low, but dry soils and warm temperatures along with the threat for lightning will produce a low threat for wildfires in the Peninsula. County burn bans are in effect for 8 counties, including 3 in the Panhandle in the wake of Hurricane Michael and 5 in the Peninsula that are prohibited year-round. The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 360 (-3) on a scale from 0 (very moist) to 800 (very dry). There are currently 8 Florida counties with a KBDI above 500 (Brevard, Broward, Glades, Highlands, Indian River, Okeechobee, Pasco, and Sumter). Drought Monitor Active Wildfires (Florida Forest Service)

10 Space Weather Current Sunspots Solar Flare Risk Active Watches & Warnings Past 24 hours M-class: 1% Geomagnetic Storm: No A1 Solar Flare X-class: 1% Radiation Storm: No No Radio Blackouts 48 Hour Geomagnetic Forecast 11/14 11/15 Coronal holes on the Earthfacing side of the sun Max Kp= 2-3 (G0) Chance of minor activity = 5% severe activity = 1% Max Kp= 2 (G0) Chance of minor activity = 1% severe activity = 1% Space Weather: A very small sunspot on the sun s earth-facing disk poses no significant solar flare risk. The earth is exiting a stream of solar wind from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions have calmed down, but another bout of solar wind from the newest coronal hole could reach earth by Sunday. The space weather threat to Florida is very low.

11 SWO Communications Systems & Contact Information Equipment Contact Status Phone: or Fax: SWO Tracker: SLERS: DEM Statewide NAWAS: State Watch Office EMnet Message: FL.000- State Watch Office EMnet Voice: FL SWP- State Watch Office State EAS: FL Interoperable Network: Website: WebEOC: LP.1 Stations via Emnet SOFEOC Users wishing to subscribe (approval pending) to this distribution list, register at: Taylor Cheney Comments Digitally signed by Taylor Cheney DN: cn=taylor Cheney, o=florida Division of Emergency Management, ou=operations Duty Officer, c=us Date: :41:35-05'00'