First year operational weather forecasting for ALE at Patriot Hills. Higher needs imply higher demands

Transcription

1 First year operational weather forecasting for ALE at Patriot Hills Higher needs imply higher demands

2 Patriot Hills S80 /W81

3 Antarctic Logistics&Expeditions Provides support and logistics to:

4 Ski and Kite Expeditions in 07-08: 08: 9 teams

5 Scientific Parties: : Koordi David Sugden

6 Mount Vinson Climbers: 115 in

7 07-08: 08: 40SouthPole city trippers

8 Antarctic Logistics&Expeditions Provides support and logistics to: - Ski expeditions - Mount Vinson climbing teams - Scientific teams - Tourists Supports governmentalorganisations:

9 National Science Foundation

10 British Antarctic Survey

11 Increasing needs, increasing demands Every year more cliënts (320 during 07-08) Every year more flights but same period of time to squeeze the flights in CONSEQUENCE: need for every possible weather window (without safety risks!!!)

12 ALE anticpitated on this evolution: Investing in AWS (WMO standards) (WX7 in use, WX8 upcoming) Support by weather Forecasts first season with forecaster in Patriot Hills

13 Aviation Operations IL-76 flights from Punta Arenas to Patriot H. Continental flights of Twin Otters C-130 flights of NSF Twin Otter flights of BAS

14 IL-76 flights from Punta to Patriot Hills Effective flight duration: 4.5 hours

15 Punta Arenas Patriot Hills (S80-W81) 4.5 hour flight

16 IL-76 flights from Punta to Patriot Hills Effective flight duration: 4.5 hours Needed weather window: 8 hours Window limits: - Visibility > 10km - Cloud: <5/8 above 5000ft - Wind: < 18 knot in gusts

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20 IL-76 flights from Punta to Patriot Hills Season 07-08: 18 flights without one turn around Days when IL76-flight was considered: 51

21 Continental Twin Otter flights

22 Frequent Twin Otter destinations Fuel cache flight at Thiels Fuel stops to Pole at Thiels Koordi at Thiels Mt Vinson Fuel cache at Berkner Fuel stops to Emp Shackleton Pole of Inaccesability

23 NSF C-130 flight support

24 Lands on the Skiway 4km North of PH Skiway orientated in to the wind Higher wind limits Good contrast and horizon

25 Forecast is made by the forecaster at Charleston Patriot Met Support/ hourly observations starting 6 hours before ETD. Own inititiave: Patriot TAF to the C-forecaster

26 Exchange of information between different organisations should be standard procedure!

27 Forecasting Tools Satellite Pictures Observations Model Products

28 Dartcom system Helix antenna NOAA

29 NOAA APT 12 DEC 07

30 Observations Along BIR: - ATIS (air traffic info system) - Treshold: WX7 Skiway Twin Otter/C-130: manualy Deep field: - AWS-RAWS A, B, C and D South Pole when requested

31 Model Products Patriot Hills is a remote location: - no internet - via iridium: slow and expensive Consequence: a minimum of model products could be send from Punta to Patriot

32 Daily model data at Patriot Tephigram: made by the British Met Office (Global Model) Meteogram: MM5 from AMPS

33 Tephigramms 00+0, +12, +24, +36 Two locations: PH, TM Twice a day

34 Advantages of Tephi s Vertical Moisture Distrubution Vertical Wind Variation Stable/Unstable layers turbulent layers Good operational product for aviation

35 Disadvantages Tephi s Information valid for one point Completely not reliable for katabatic wind changes Good product for aviation in general but not as only tool.

36 Meteogram MM5 - AMPS Location: Patriot Hills Selected from the web in Punta twice a day Sent from Punta to Patriot twice a day

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38 Advantages of Meteogram A lot of information gathered on one page Forecast 5 days ahead: excellent for planning Forecasted Katabatic wind changes: Incredibly reliable

39 Disadvantage of Meteogram Deceivingly easy to make interpretations In operational use: - dangerous in unexperienced hands! - need for continuïty and experience (serie)

40 Bulletins made at Patriot Hills A daily TAF, updated when needed. A medium range weather forecast, updated when needed. A daily camp forecast Daily Taf voor Twin Otter skiway Taf voor C-130 skiway when needed Hourly weather observations (METARS)

41 Considerations about forecasting at Patriot Hills One forecaster for the whole season (early november till end january): This is an incredible advantage: this gives you the indispensable continuïty The disadvantage of this is that at the end of the season

42 you re stuffed!

43 Considerations about forecasting at Patriot Hills The key word for deepfield Antarctic operational weather forecasting is: CONFIDENCE Confidence btwn: - Forecaster and the FOM - Forecaster and his model products - Forecaster and the people who work hard to improve the model

44 There fore this workshop is an ideal platform to discuss about each other needs and problems (concerning weather of course). THANK YOU