Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia)

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1 Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) is one of the biggest airports in the Russian Federation ( flights and 15 M passengers per year 2016, +20% is planned for 2018 due to the Football World Cup 2018). Aerodrome is located: in mid-latitude in the Northern Hemisphere (59 48' N, 'E, +24m), 20 km South from St. Petersburg; between 2 big water reservoirs (10 km East from the Gulf of Finland and 50 km West from Ladoga Lake). Pulkovo aerodrome has 2 runways - 10R/28L (3780 m) and 10L/28R (3390 m). Maps of the airport and its surrounding area are given in Appendix A. Pulkovo aerodrome is located in the transitional from sea climate to continental climate zone. The main weather impacts on operations and air traffic at Pulkovo aerodrome are the low visibility (including fogs) and ceiling. In winter time are heavy snow and blizzards, runway icing. Appendix B shows a brief climatology of Pulkovo aerodrome for the different weather phenomena during the period Objectives: To generate 0-4 hours visibility and ceiling nowcasts; To deliver nowcasts to the aviation weather forecasters in real time; To improve visibility and ceiling forecasts at aerodrome; To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification). Method A methodology is based on local observations, an adaptive assimilation scheme, and numerical atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) model. Data sources: aviation weather observation station (AWOS, every 1 min), additional automatic weather station (AWS, including pyranometers, surface temperature and soil temperature sensors, every 10 min), weather Doppler radar, AMDAR, and temperature profiler MTP-5 at stage 2. Model The 1D ABL model represents the evolution of vertical profiles in the atmospheric boundary layer. The lower boundary conditions are formulated with the aid of the similarity theory. The upper boundary conditions are set in accordance with GRIBcoded data from NWP model. Data of observations are used to set as initial conditions.

2 Output Nowcasts of the following most critical parameters with lead time of 4h at 10-min intervals, updated every 10 minutes: Visibility (with the emphasis on Vis<800m); Ceiling (with the emphasis on Ceiling <60m). Visualization and archive: specialized web-site for data visualization, database for data storage. Periods Stage 1: Basic scheme with the data from one point at the aerodrome (meteorological observational site with an additional AWS station). Operational work of MeteoExpert system with the delivery of visibility and ceiling nowcasts for 4 h ahead at 10-min intervals to weather forecasters. Analysis and verification. The possibility to transfer observational and nowcasts data (every 10 min) to AvRDP site after some technical and organizational coordination with AvRDP and Pulkovo project administrators (formats and amount of data, transfer scheme, etc.). Stage 2: Development and operational use of advanced nowcasting scheme using additional weather stations, temperature profiler MTP-5. Data transfer to AvRDP site. Analysis and verification. Development of the technology for nowcasts data translation into the ATM systems by the means of MeteoServer system.

3 Appendix A: Maps of Pulkovo aerodrome and its surrounding area

4 Appendix B: Brief climatology of Pulkovo aerodrome ( ) Pulkovo aerodrome area is characterized by a high frequency of Atlantic air masses passing. In cold period of year the cyclonic weather processes increase, and in the warm period, as a rule, weaken. Active cyclones and frequent changes of air masses determine the unstable nature of Pulkovo weather in all seasons. Climatology (calculated for the period ): coldest month is January (- 6.7 C), the warmest month is July (17.7 C); average pressure value is hpa (757.3 mm Hg); average annual precipitation amount is mm; prevailing winds are in the sector from 180 to 270 (South, South-West, West). The most difficult for aviation weather conditions with the low clouds and visibility are observed in March, September and December at night time and in the morning. The duration of conditions RVR <550 m and/or ceiling <60 m is 1 hour or less but there are isolated cases when duration are hours (0.1% of the total number of observations). Weather phenomena also have a significant impact on aviation in winter time, especially fog. The greatest number of days with fog are in September-October. The longest fogs (up to h) are observed in March during the active snowmelt;

5 Heavy snow and blizzards with visibility decrease less than 1000 m and wind intensification (more than 15 m/s) are observed in January-February, and are associated mainly with the southern cyclones; Most often, blizzards duration is 12 h or less. The longest snowstorm was observed in November - 22 h. Runway icing periodicity is only 0.1% and its values are extremely small. Icing is observed from November to February with the max in December (6.5 h) and in February (4.5 h). Phenomena Days per month I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Year Fog 3,1 3,5 4,3 3,7 3,2 4,4 6,6 6,9 7,3 4,5 3,4 3,0 54,0 Mist 22,5 21,9 19,5 18,1 16,2 16,9 18,9 20,2 21,7 20,6 21,9 21,1 239,7 Blizzard 3,3 2,9 1,9 0,3 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 1,0 3,4 13,0 Ice 1,1 1,3 0,2 0,2 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 0,9 1,0 5,0 Thunderstorm 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,2 2,2 4,0 4,7 2,5 0,9 0,0 0,0 0,0 14,4 Hail 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,1 0,1 0,0 0,0 0,2

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