EC Funded Research on Tsunamis in the. Achievements and Perspectives

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1 EC Funded Research on Tsunamis in the FP6 and FP7 frameworks: Achievements and Perspectives Stefano Tinti University of Bologna International Workshop on Disaster Risk Reduction International Workshop on Disaster Risk Reduction Dialogue between Scientists and Stakeholders October 2009, Brussels, European Commission

2 Research and Infrastructure Projects Financed by the European Commission i FP6 Projects Project Name Coordinator Starting Date Duration (months) Budget MEuro Funding DG SEAHELLARC HCMR, Greece 01/06/ Research NEAREST ISMAR-CNR, Italy 01/10/ Research TRANSFER UNIBO, Italy 01/10/ Research DEWS ATOS, Spain 01/02/ Information Society SCHEMA GSC, France 01/08/ Space FP7 Projects??? Stefano Tinti

3 TRANSFER NEAREST nearest.bo.ismar.cnr.it it SEAHELLARC DG Research European Projects on Tsunamis Stefano Tinti

4 Main EC Tsunami Project Achievements Update and Improvement of Tsunami Catalogue Identification, Characterisation and Mapping of Tsunami Sources Swath Bathymetry Imaging and High-Resolution Mapping of Marine Sediments Oriented to Tsunami Generation Studies New Tsunami Monitoring Offshore Stations Methods for Tsunami Hazards Assessment and for Inundation Mapping and Corresponding Applications to Several Test Areas Vulnerability and Risk Analyses Performed in Selected Test Sites Conveying of Results to the Stakeholders (in primis to the IOC ICG/NEAMTWS and to local administrators in test sites)

5 Tsunami Catalogue 324 events from 6150 BC to 2007 TRANSFER

6 Main EC Tsunami Project Achievements Id tifi ti Ch t i ti Identification, Characterisation and Mapping of Tsunami Sources

7 Active fault systems mapped in the Cadiz Gulf NEAREST

8 Underwater Landslide Identified off shore West Peloponnese, Greece Computed Maximum Water Elevation of the Possible Induced Tsunami SEAHELLARC

9 Main EC Tsunami Project Achievements Swath Bathymetry Imaging and High- Resolution Mapping of Marine Sediments Oriented to Tsunami Generation Studies

10 Campain carried out offshore West Peloponnese, Greece Swath Bathymetry SEAHELLARC Subbottom profiling

11 open ocean off Morocco Swath bathymetry: t SWIM lineament from off Morocco to the open Atlantic Ocean NEAREST

12 Main EC Tsunami Project Achievements New Tsunami Monitoring New Tsunami Monitoring Offshore Stations

13 Buoy f B for reall time ti seismic and tsunami monitoring SEAHELLARC

14 Portugal Spain Multiparametric GEOSTAR station deployed in the Horseshoe fault region off Portugal for TEW GEOSTAR NEAREST

15 Main EC Tsunami Project Achievements Methods for Tsunami Hazards Assessment and for Inundation Mapping and Corresponding Applications to Several Test Areas

16 Credible Worst-Case Scenario Approach applied to the Baleari Test Site, Spain Aggregated g fields for the Harbour of Mallorca Maximum m water elavation Maximum current speed 10 m cell size TRANSFER

17 Credible Worst-Case Scenario Approach applied to the Fethiye Test Site, Turkey Aggregated Maximum Flow Depth 5 m cell size 17 TRANSFER

18 Credible Worst-Case Scenario Approach applied to the Messina Test Site, Turkey m 5.0 m s Maximum Water Elevation km Maximum Current Speed km m 3.0 m 3 s Maximum Flow Depth km m cell size TRANSFER Maximum Momentum Flux km

19 Probabilistic Approach Applied to Inundation Maps: The Cadiz-Huelva Test Site T r =500 years T r =1,000 years T r =5000 years T r =10, yrs Combining Faults, Epicenter Locations, Magnitudes, Tidal Levels (total of 608 simulation runs) Cadiz town Expected Maximum water elevation TRANSFER

20 Main EC Tsunami Project Achievements Vulnerability and risk analyses in the selected sites

21 Vulnerability Assessment applied to the Istanbul Test Site!!!!!! Wave Height 0 - (m) 1 10%PE in 50yrs! 1-2! 0-1! 2-3! 1-2! m! 3-4! 4-5! 4-5! 5-6! Maximum water km elevation! 5-6! 6-10!!!!!!!!!! 10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs TRANSFER GIS data in o x o geocells

22 Risk Assessment applied to the Istanbul Test Site Population within the inundated area: day time: (European side) (Asian side) night time: (European side) (Asian side) TRANSFER Combining probabilistic inundation maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50 yrs) with vulnerability

23 Risk Assessment applied to the Cadiz Test Site 5000 yrs tsunami scenario Credible worst-case scenario Combining flow depth maps with vulnerability TRANSFER

24 Probabilistic Approach Applied to Risk Zonation: The Rhodos-Fethiye Test Site Inundation line Risk zonation Rhodos town Rhodos town FORTH, Greece TRANSFER Zoning depending on flow depth

25 Future Perspectives Very poor if no funds available in the next FP7 calls for tsunami research Complete the inventories: tsunami events, paleotsunamis, seismic sources (faults and zones), non-seismic sources (especially landslides in seismic and volcanic areas) Better understsanding of tsunami generation processes Development of tsunami real-time observation systems and integration with the managament of the coastl zone Improvement of methods for early tsunami detection Exploitation of technical solutions provided for the marine seismic and tsunami stations to other Mediterranean sites Improve and validate numerical codes for landslide-induced lid i d d tsunamis Improve and validate models to address inundation in complex Improve and validate models to address inundation in complex onland environment (e.g. with account for buildings, structures, coastal forests, )

26 Future Perspectives Very poor if no funds available in the next FP7 calls for tsunami research Analyse tsunami hazard-to-risk in a multi-risk dimension and integrated t in the management of the coastal zone Explore methods for tsunami forecasting in view of the TEWS implementation ti in the Euro-Mediterranean region Extend hazard-to-risk analyses to all coastal areas under tsunami threat Explore and develop viable countermeasures against tsunami attacks and define codes for buildings and plants in exposed coasts Define standards for vulnerability and risk analyses Outreach and education on tsunamis for the European coastal communities