Puerto Rico Tsunami Mitigation and Warning Program: Update and Future

Transcription

1 Puerto Rico Tsunami Mitigation and Warning Program: Update and Future Christa G. von Hillebrandt- Andrade, Puerto Rico Seismic Network, UPRM Aurelio Mercado Dept. Marine Sciences, UPRM

2 Status in 1999, before the FEMA-UPR PRTMWP and Seismic Instrumentation funding! 2 Historic Earthquakes that caused a tsunami 1867 in the Virgin Islands, 20 ft, with 12 deaths 1918 in Western Puerto Rico, 20 ft, 40 deaths! 1755 Atlantic wide tsunami! Puerto Rico Seismic Network SP stations and funding to install 10 BB stations! Staff: Director, Electronic Technician, Administrative Assistant, Programmer/Researcher Associate, 10 students! No tsunami protocol! Very little knowledge within Puerto Rico, including EM s about this hazard, it was called The forgotten hazard.

3 Tsunami, 1867, U. S. Virgin Islands

4 1918 Tsunamis, Mayagüez

5 Simulation of the 1918 Tsunami by: Aurelio Mercado

6 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! After Hurricane Georges (Sept. 1998) submitted the proposal to the HMGP! Funded FEMA: $362,924 UPR: $120,951 (in kind and hard)! Oct Sept (extended to March 30, 2003)

7 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Researchers: Aurelio Mercado, Marine Sciences Dept., PI Christa von Hillebrandt, Puerto Rico Seismic Network, Co-PI Havidán Rodríguez, Social Sciences Dept., UPR, Co-PI Victor Huérfano, Puerto Rico Seismic Network and PhD Candidate Dept. of Marine Sciences, Carlos Mendoza, Dept. Geology, UPR ( ), ABS Consulting ( )

8 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Objective: Extend to the US citizens in the Caribbean the same concern for tsunami hazard mitigation as afforded to US citizens in the Pacific states, using as a model the NTHMP Identify the areas exposed to this hazard Raise the public s consciousness Set the groundwork for what would be the first tsunami warning system in Puerto Rico and the Caribbean

9 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Prepare and supply tsunami flooding and evacuation maps Modeled all the offshore faults for initial tsunami conditions (Masinha and Smylie) Preparation of inundation maps (Japanese TIME)! Near shore bathymetry! Near shore topography Information presented on GIS referenced aerial photographs

10 Characterization of 238 Offshore Faults/Segments of Faults

11 Tsunami Flood Map Aguadilla

12 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Raising Awareness of the potentially affected populations Seven regional tsunami conferences (done) Tsunami Hazard Signs Two evacuation exercises (Nov and?) Bilingual web site poseidon.uprm.edu Tsunami video - done

13 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Evaluate the incorporation of seismic waveform data from local, regional, national and global seismic networks (done) Use PR BB and VBB stations for determination of parameter of local earthquakes (Victor Huerfano) Use PR BB and VBB stations for determination of focal mechanisms for regional earthquakes (Carlos Mendoza)

14 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Develop warning messages and protocol in the event that a potentially tsunamigenic event is detected There is a draft To be presented and adopted at workshop in Jan. 2003

15 Tsunami Messages! Types of Messages Tsunami Watch Tsunami Warning All Clear/Cancellation of Tsunami Warning/Watch

16 Criteria used for tsunami watch message! Indication of an earthquake with a magnitude greater or equal to 6.5! PRSN locates in the near offshore region an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or greater.

17 Criteria used for emitting Tsunami watch message! The Intensity of the EQ is equal to or greater than VII

18 Criteria used for emitting Tsunami warning and all clear messages! Warning: Tsunami is observed, confirmed! All clear: No tsunami is detected or more than one hour has gone by since a tsunami was detected.

19 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Develop a Caribbean Historical Tsunami Data Base. Contracted out to Dr. Gusiakov.

20 Puerto Rico Tsunamis Mitigation and Warning Program! Promote and seek support and partnerships at state and federal level for long-term tsunami hazard mitigation Local state funding to consolidate the operations of the Puerto Rico Seismic Network and the Puerto Rico Strong Motion Program done Inclusion in the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program pending NOAA - pending

21 FEMA-UPR Project Joint Seismic Stations ( , ) Short Period Seismic Station Broad Band Seismic Station Repeater Puerto Rico Seismic Network

22 FEMA-UPR Project Joint Seismic Stations ( , ) Strong Motion Seismic Network

23 PRSEMA-UPR Project: Travel Times for Regional Tsunamis (Dr. Vachieslav Gusiakov)

24 PRSEMA-UPR Project: Travel Times for Trans-Atlantic Tsunamis (Dr. Vachieslav Gusiakov)

25 PRSEMA, UPR, Sea Grant: Submarine landslides, w/ Philip Liu (Cornell)

26 PR State Law PRSN! Additional Personnel Research Seismologist Two seismic instrumentation technicians Two data analysts Computer Engineer Handyman Educational Outreach officer (?) Administrative Professional (?)! Maintenance, Replacement and Upgrade of Equipment! New stations! Communications! Outreach! Travel within PR! Travel outside of PR! Participation in Seismological Organizations! PRSN staffed: M F, 7AM to 6PM! On call outside regular hours $440,000/year complements $180,000/year provided by the UPR

27 PR State Law 106-PR Strong Motion Program! Personnel Director Seismologist Instrumentation Engineer Data Analysts Administrative Professionals! Communication! Maintenance, Replacement and Upgrade of Equipment! New stations! Travel within PR! Travel outside of PR! Participation in Seismological Organizations $560,000/year (had no budget before this law)

28 Future of the PRTWMP! Extend operations of the PRSN to 24 x 7: $240,000/year Minimum staff Data Analyst and 1 Student ½ Seismologist for Tsunami specific studies/applications! Tsunami specific equipment and training: $50,000/year! Ongoing public education and awareness: $25,000/year Web site, Evacuation exercises, Seminars/workshops, Signs, NOAA weather radio! Rerun the inundation maps with the new near shore topography data. Maps for VI. Refine evacuation maps: $25,000/year! Administrative Costs: $10,000/year! Buoy(s)?

29 An Invitation.