Questionnaire on Hazard Mapping

Transcription

1 Questionnaire on Hazard Mapping 1. General Questions 1.1. WHAT HAZARD MAPS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED IN YOUR COUNTRY? The following refer to the work done by the Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration (IGME), the geological survey of Greece. FLOODS SEVESO ESTABLISHMENTS EARTHQUAKES NUCLEAR LANDSLIDES TRANSPORTATION OF DANGEROUS GOODS STORMS CONTAMINATED LAND VOLCANOES FOREST FIRES OTHER INDUSTRIAL HAZARDS(specify) MULTI-HAZARD PLEASE LIST MULTI-HAZARD. NATECH* PLEASE LIST NATECH TYPE. * Natural hazard triggering technological disasters With respect to multi-hazard mapping, the maps elaborated for seismic zonation in several cities prone to seismic hazard, also examine the probability of occurrence of other potentially damaging phenomena that could be triggered by seismic activity (earth movements, e.g. landslides, subsidence, rock-falls, debris flows). Hazard maps have been developed in Greece for intensely contaminated land in urban, rural and agricultural areas. The multi-hazard maps that have been developed, concern contamination of lead (Pb) in surface soil in relation to child blood-lead levels, different sources of pollution and land use activities HOW FAR ARE YOU IN THE PROCESS OF HAZARD MAPPING? HAVE MAPS BEEN DEVELOPED FOR ALL RELEVANT HAZARDS AND FOR THE WHOLE TERRITORY? The last years there was a big effort to establish a new legal framework that contributes to the assessment of hazards and risks. Our Institution has put, successfully, a lot of pressure to public authorities for the utility and necessity not only of geological and geotechnical studies but of the hazard mapping as well before important construction and land-use planning projects. The degree of information is variable for different regions from detailed to very few. With respect to the landslide hazard mapping and seismic micro-zonation the degree of completion varies from 2% to 5 % for the detailed scale (1/ /2.000) concerning mainly urban areas. As there is a lot of work to be done, our main objective is to complete this work with a systematic way and modern methodologies in order to mitigate the consequences of natural hazards in a whole territory with a time- and cost effective manner. Geotechnical studies and Hazard Mapping have been made the necessary tools before any of the following: Land Use Planning Focusing on activities related to: 1

2 Urban development Waste management and disposal fields Construction and protection of Life-lines: e.g. energy, telecommunications, transportation Environmental protection Mitigation of Landslide Risk Mitigation of Seismic Risk The last years have been elaborated maps of the recent volcanoes from the south Aegean arc where the main potential volcanic hazard activities occur. The process of hazard mapping with respect to contaminated land is in its infancy, because of the amount of data and information required. Hazard maps have been developed only in certain areas where there are serious health related problems due to toxic element contamination. A particular urban and semi-rural case study covers an area of about 7 square kilometres, and the map scale of the hazard maps is 1/ Whereas the rural and agricultural case study covers an area of approximately 170 square kilometres at a scale of 1/ The systematic regional geochemical survey is at standstill at present, because of funding. If the required funds are made available it will be possible to cover:- (a) the whole of Greece with a systematic regional stream sediment survey at a density of 1-2 samples per square kilometre, and the samples to be analysed for at least 65 chemical elements, and for selected regions persistent organic pollutants, and (b) agricultural areas with a systematic soil survey at a density of at least 12 samples per square kilometre, and the samples to be analysed for about 65 chemical elements and persistent organic pollutants. The results of the above geochemical stream and soil surveys will give comparatively detail information with respect to potential hazards of soil and groundwater contamination at the national level. However, the Geochemistry Working Groups of the Forum of European Geological Surveys (FOREGS) and the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) and International Association of Geochemistry and Cosmochemistry (IAGC), through the ongoing project of Global Geochemical Baselines, have developed techniques to map potential chemical hazards at the continental scale using a catchment basin approach. Results of this baseline geochemical mapping will be available for 26 European countries in Some of the objectives of this project are: to map natural element variation; to map natural above normal concentrations of the elements and anthropogenic pollution, and to assess the pollution level at the same site. The information will be of value to: agriculture, animal husbandry, epidemiology, town planning, legislation, mineral exploration, decision making in general, etc WHO ARE THE KEY PLAYERS, AUTHORITY, BODY/ENTITY, RESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND UPDATING OF HAZARD MAPS? Governmental and Intergovernmental Agencies (Civil Protection, Institute of Geology and Mineral Exploration, Earthquake Protection and Planning Organization), Research Institutes, Universities. 2

3 IGME believes that on a national level first and then on European a better cooperation between the different key players and coordination should be achieved by the systematical collection and processing all of the relevant information concerning geo-hazards. 1.4 IN WHAT FORMAT, I.E. ELECTRONIC OR PAPER COPY, ARE THE HAZARD MAPS AVAILABLE? WHAT IS THE SCALE (E.G. 1:25.000) AND PROJECTION (E.G. UTM)? ARE SOME MAPS AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET, IF SO, WHICH ONES? There are several types of maps of variable scales and mostly on paper copies. The last years there is an increasing demand on digital information. There are maps such as: Geological, Geotechnical, Geomorphological, Geochemical, Hydrological, Seismic hazard and zonation maps, The integral geological engineering investigations include the following works: For waste management and disposal fields selection and evaluation, the geological and geotechnical mapping produce maps in 1/5000 scale. For landslide hazard assessment, the maps produced in 1/1000 to 1/5000 scale (in some cases also in 1/ scale). Macro-seismic studies and Seismic zonation mapping from 1/5000 to 1/2000scale. The volcanic hazard mapping, produced in paper as well as in digital form in 1/ scale. The projection is the EGSA 87 (national system). All hazard maps are available in electronic form and on paper. These maps are not available on the internet. The urban area maps are at a scale of 1/5000, and the rural-agricultural area maps at a scale of 1/ The map projection is old system of the Hellenic Army Geographical Service. These maps are not available on the Internet. The geochemical baseline maps, which are being prepared by FOREGS for 26 European countries, will be available on the Internet towards the end of 2004 or beginning of The scale will be decided by the end of HAS YOUR COUNTRY DEVELOPED ANY CROSS-BORDER CO-OPERATION FOR DEVELOPING COMMON HAZARD MAPPING METHODOLOGIES OR GUIDELINES? DO CROSS-BORDER HAZARD MAPS EXIST? There is no cross-border cooperation concerning hazard mapping so far. Understanding the great utility and importance of such a project, we have already put our strain to realize this kind of cooperation within the next years with countries that face similar threats and risks. Our Institution is an active partner in several European projects, dealing with seismic and landslide hazards and aiming the development of new methods for protection of people and their environment. We believe that these kind of collaboration and partnership should be used as the base for the establishment of hazard mapping projects and the development of common methods and approaches for hazard and risk assessment across all of Europe. With respect to mapping of chemical hazards by geochemical survey methods, the only collaboration that has been developed with neighbouring countries, using a common approach, is through the on-going FOREGS/IUGS/IAGC project Global Geochemical Baselines. 3

4 1.6 WHO CAN ACCESS THE INFORMATION AND TO WHAT LEVEL? There is full access on the data for every person or Institution interested Unpublished IGME reports can be accessed by any person through the library. No photocopies can be made. The FOREGS European Geochemical Baseline mapping results will be available through the internet without any restrictions. 1.7 IN YOUR COUNTRY, WHAT ARE THE HAZARD MAPS USED FOR? COMMUNICATION TO THE PUBLIC INFRASTRUCTURE OWNERS AND MANAGERS (TRANSPORT, ENERGY ) TARGETED INFORMATION COMMUNICATION AMONGST DECISION-MAKERS LAND USE/SPATIAL PLANNING EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANS TARGETED ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES FOR PREVENTION VISUALISATION OF INFORMATION ONLY OTHER(S), PLEASE SPECIFY 2 Questions on hazard mapping methodology 2.1 FOR EACH OF THE HAZARDS LISTED IN 1.1, HOW MANY DIFFERENT LEVELS ARE DEFINED, AND TO WHAT DO THEY CORRESPOND? With respect to the earth movements three different levels are defined: Concerning urban planning geological studies: Zones not recommended for urban development (high risk areas) Zones recommended for urban development under restrictions (low to middle risk areas) Zones appropriate for urban development (very low risk areas). As far it concerns soil contaminated hazard mapping, different levels are defined for the five different types of hazard assessment maps that have been compiled: (a) deterministic, (b) probabilistic, (c) deterministic-probabilistic, (d) semi-quantitative, and (e) quantitative. (a) Deterministic hazard assessment map: This is based on the hazard of lead (Pb) accessible to children from surface soil and dust. It is the simplest approach which is based on the statutory or guideline value of lead for domestic gardens and allotments. In this case two levels are defined: 1. contaminated areas, and 2. uncontaminated areas This type of deterministic map can be used for any other toxic element. (b) Probabilistic hazard map: The classification defines four categories based on the extent of overlap of uncertainty with a single threshold value, which in this case is the statutory or guideline value, i.e., 1. contaminated, 2. probably contaminated, 4

5 3. possibly contaminated, and 4. uncontaminated. For this map the measurement uncertainty is first estimated. (c) Deterministic-probability hazard assessment map: The classification is based on the concentrations of several toxic elements and their respective guideline or statutory values. Essentially a composite map of the degree of severity is constructed, defining the combined level above the statutory or guideline values, together with an index indicator for occurrence probability. Eleven categories are normally used. (d) Semi-quantitative hazard assessment map: The level of hazard is rated quantitatively on an arbitrary scale (0-255) using 15 levels, which show the degree of severity, together with an index indicator for occurrence probability. Since, the area studied was very complex, and the health related problems variable, depending on the degree of contamination and other geographical characteristics, it was decided to use a multi-criteria approach for the construction of semi-quantitative hazard assessment maps. The critieria used are of two types, factors and constraints, i.e., Eight factors: 1. lead concentration in surface soil samples; 2. degree of exposure of children; 3. degree of dustiness of metallurgical wastes; 4. proximity to metallurgical wastes; 5. proximity to current and previous stacks; 6. proximity to roads; 7. proximity to rivers, and 8. proximity to lead-industry. Two constraints: 1. area with metal-related industry, and 2. area over Quaternary deposits. (e) Quantitative hazard assessment map: Two types of quantitative hazard assessment maps of child exposure to lead (Pb) were compiled using (a) the Human Exposure from Soil Pollutants model (HESP), and (b) the Integrated Exposure Uptake BioKinetic model (IEUBK). The HESP model map used nine arbitrary levels based on (µg Pb/day) x (kg-body weight), together with an index indicator for occurrence probability. The IEUBK model map used again nine arbitrary levels based on µg Pb/100 ml blood, together with an index indicator for occurrence probability. 2.2 FOR EACH OF THE HAZARDS LISTED IN 1.1, WHAT IS THE METHODOLOGY USED? As far it concerns earth movements, soil instabilities and seismic hazard, the methodology that is being used is the combination of historical data together with field observations, mapping and laboratory results. Deterministic approach mainly is used. The mapping of south Aegean volcanoes has been undertaken after the examination of the recent volcanic activity over the whole country. These volcanoes have been classified as of medium interest and have been mapped. A monitoring network has been installed in Santorini and another one is under preparation in Nisyros island. 5

6 The developed methodologies for the elaboration of soil contaminated maps are explained very briefly below. Detailed information can be supplied if required. (a) Deterministic hazard assessment map: it is the simplest map for it uses the guideline value of a single toxic element to produce a distribution map showing areas with concentrations above or below the guideline value. (b) Probabilistic hazard assessment map: this type of map requires the estimation of measurement uncertainty, which means that duplicate samples should be collected from an area in a random manner. Subsequently, each duplicate sample to be split in two sub-samples and analysed. By having a set of four analyses at each site, and at an adequate number of sites, the measurement uncertainty can be estimated. The classification defines four categories based on the extent of overlap of uncertainty with a single threshold or guideline value. (c) Deterministic-probabilistic hazard assessment map: this type of map is a composite, using all toxic elements assessing the environmental hazard. Each element concentration is divided by its respective guideline or statutory value. The resulting ratios are added, and from the final sum is subtracted the total number of toxic elements defining the hazard. Hence, values above 1 define hazardous areas for human habitation or agricultural use. This ratio is employed together with an index indicator for occurrence probability. (d) Semi-quantitative hazard assessment map: The constructed maps use two types of criteria, i.e., factors and constraints. Factors are generally continuous in nature, and indicate the relative suitability of certain areas. Constraints, on the other hand, are always Boolean in character (they follow binary logic present or absent), and serve to exclude certain areas from consideration. In the particular case study 8 factors and 2 constraints were defined, as has already been mentioned. An algorithm was produced using a method of Weighted Linear Combination of the 10 variables. An arbitrary hazard scale of was employed, and fifteen levels were defined, together with an index indicator for occurrence probability. (e) Quantitative hazard assessment map: The algorithms of the Human Exposure from Soil Pollutants model (HESP), and Integrated Exposure Uptake BioKinetic model (IEUBK) were used for the construction of the maps. 2.3 ARE THE HAZARD MAPS STATIC OR DYNAMIC? Concerning earth movements there are only static maps so far. For some type of hazards like landslides and floods there is a big need to be transformed in dynamic the forthcoming years including updating data on different factors such as weather condition, soil moisture, human activity. As far as concern recent volcanoes the elaborated maps are static The hazard maps produced for contaminated land mapping are essentially static hazard maps. Nevertheless, they should be updated every ten years. 3. Initiatives to be undertaken at European level Dealing with natural and technological risks on a local, regional, national and European scale requires a systematic approach. We have to focus our efforts to mitigate risks using modern methodologies that demand risk analysis through hazard and vulnerability assessment. Integral risk management makes use of the complete set of prevention, preparedness, intervention and recovery strategies. 6

7 We believe that hazard mapping, vulnerability analysis concerning critical infrastructures, the habitat, the societal and ecological systems, should be established through a uniform way and manner for all European countries. A very important issue is the improvement of public preparedness. Natural and Technological Hazards are perceived differently. The way that a community responds to a certain risk depends on the previous information and education. There is a big need for better knowledge of people s methods of handling risks. Therefore projects and campaigns as well as school programs aiming to increase public awareness should be strongly encouraged and promoted by the European Union. The added value of these projects could be of great importance if they are based at the cross-border cooperation and the exchange of experience and best practices between the Member States. The design and development of monitoring systems should also be a major priority of any initiative towards risk mitigation. Early warning that is based on reliable data flow from monitoring networks, is the major tool for scientists and decision-makers before any effective measure towards prevention, preparedness and response. The hazards related to earth movements and soil instabilities became more damaging each year because of the intense urbanization and the increasing value of the objects exposed to these threatening phenomena. The assessment of this type of threats through hazard mapping is a very useful approach that can give to planners and managers some reference for the organization of exposed zones reaching a relative formulation of the level of risk. The European policy should promote stronger cooperation in establishing not only common methods for hazard mapping monitor the movements and install alarm systems across Europe but also in strengthening the legal framework for more effective land use planning limiting the use of the landslide zones. The hazard of soil pollution from inorganic and organic chemicals is indeed very serious, and should undoubtedly be tackled at the European level. It should be remembered that humans are the end product of 4 billion years of evolution. They are, in fact, a complex biochemical machine. Therefore, their quality of life depends on the geochemistry of the surface environment. It is worth quoting Darnley et al. (1995) with respect to this significant relationship that decision-makers may not be aware: Everything in and on earth - mineral, animal and vegetable - is made from one, or generally some combination of, the 86 naturally occurring chemical elements. Everything that is grown, or made, depends upon the availability of the appropriate elements. The existence, quality and survival of life depends upon the availability of elements in the correct proportions and combinations. The FOREGS Geochemical Baseline Mapping project, which is at present being carried out in 26 European countries, with funding from the national Geological Surveys of each country, will produce the first continental scale maps for approximately 60 chemical elements. This is the first systematic project using a standardised methodology of sampling, sample preparation, chemical analysis of samples, stringent quality control, data processing and presentation. It will, therefore, produce the first homogeneous data set of the surface environment of Europe. Rightfully, the FOREGS Directors consider it as the most significant project undertaken by the Geological Surveys in the service of present and future generations of humankind, because it is concerned with the chemistry of life support systems. The importance of this project has been put in a simple statement by Professor Kalevi Kauranne, Director of the Geological Survey of Finland (1988): Geochemical maps represent the most urgent and important task within geology for today s human society. 7

8 The European Commission should, therefore, support this initiative of the FOREGS Directors by first funding the analysis of the samples for permanent organic pollutants, and secondly to fund the systematic geochemical mapping of all European countries from the Atlantic- Mediterranean-North Sea to the Urals. Such a homogeneous systematic database is important for decision-making with respect to the sustainable development of the European environment, but also significant to the role that EU wants to play in international affairs through the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security forum (GMES). The volcanic hazard is very important for almost all the Mediteranean countries Even if there are no volcanoes in many of them, they can be affected seriously by the effects of the volcanic activity like ash and tephra falls or even tsunamis. The proper activities to be undertaken are the support of volcanic hazard and risk assessment, the volcano monitoring projects and public awareness initiatives and campaigns. 4. Contact point for further questions Contact points: Earth movements and Seismic hazards: Eleftheria Poyiadji Tel.: & Fax: kynpo@igme.gr Soil contamination: EurGeol Alecos Demetriades Tel.: & igmegeox@otenet.gr Volcanic hazards: Dr. George Vougioukalakis Tel.: gevagel@otenet.gr 8