The Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake from the West Valley Fault: Implications for Metro Manila and Nearby Provinces

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1 The Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake from the West Valley Fault: Implications for Metro Manila and Nearby Provinces First DRI Collegiate Conference in the Philippines 16 March 2017 Renato U. Solidum, Jr. Department of Science and Technology Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology

2 The Philippines is prone to large earthquakes and tsunamis.

3 Earthquake Activity in the Philippines (~90 destructive earthquakes for past 400 years)

4 Recent Large Earthquakes M6.9 Negros Earthquake February 2012 M7.9 Moro Gulf Earthquake and Tsunami August 1976 M7.8 Luzon Earthquake July 16, 1990 M7.2 Bohol Earthquake October 2013

5 FEBRUARY 10, 2017 M6.7 SURIGAO DEL NORTE EARTHQUAKE

6 Earthquake Disaster Losses Life loss or Injury Damage to house, building, property, contents, equipment = financial loss for replacement Loss of function, lifelines Loss of public services Loss of revenues from business interruption Loss of business or livelihood

7 Why are there significant disaster losses?

8 Disaster Imagination

9

10 Metropolitan Manila and nearby provinces can be significantly affected by strong earthquakes and tsunamis

11 Latest Damaging Earthquake in Metro Manila M 7.3 Casiguran, Aurora Earthquake, 02 August 1968 Ruby Tower in Manila collapsed 268 killed, 260 injured

12 Earthquake Generators in Metro Manila and Vicinity Active Faults Trenches

13 The Valley Fault System West Valley Fault (WVF) ~ 100 km = M7.2 East Valley Fault ~ 10 km = M6.2 WVF moved 4 times generating major earthquakes in past 1400 years based on trenching; movement interval ~ 400 to 600 years

14 Earthquake Hazard Surface Faulting House, Mindoro, Philippines 1994 Road, Luzon, Philippines 1990 School ground, Sichuan, China 2008 Bridge,Taiwan 1999

15 West Valley Fault and Transport Systems Transects: Major roads (ex. C5, Ortigas, Marcos) SLEX Rail Line Near SLEX interchange: Alabang Susana

16 STRENGTH OF EARTHQUAKE: MAGNITUDE VERSUS INTENSITY INTENSITY Effect or felt strength at the surface MAGNITUDE Energy released during earthquake.

17 PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale (PEIS) I - Scarcely Perceptible II - Slightly Felt III - Weak IV - Moderately Strong V - Strong VI VII VIII IX X - Very Strong - Destructive - Very Destructive - Devastating - Completely Devastating

18 Ground Shaking (West Valley Fault Earthquake) (Risk Analysis Project, 2013: PHIVOLCS, GA supported by AusAID) PAMPANGA PAMPANGA BULACAN BULACAN NCR RIZAL NCR RIZAL CAVITE CAVITE LAGUNA LAGUNA M7.2 M6.5

19 Earthquake Hazard Ground Shaking Freeway, California USA 1989 From USGS Hotel, Baguio, Philippines 1990 Interchange, California USA 1994 From cessnaclub172.com Electricity, Kathmandu, Nepal 2015

20 Building Damage & Casualty Estimates FOR METRO MANILA FROM A M7.2 WEST VALLEY FAULT EARTHQUAKE Residential Building (1,325,896) Damage Heavy -168,300 (12.7%) Partly - 339,800 (25.6%) Public Buildings Damage Heavy % Partly % Storey Building Damage Heavy - 11% Partly - 27% Storey Damage Heavy - 2% Partly - 12% Population (9,932,560) Casualty Dead 33,500 (0.3%) Injured 113,600 (1.1%) Additional Deaths by Fire 18,000 Metro Manila Earthquake Impact Reduction Study, 2004 JICA, PHIVOLCS, MMDA

21 Building Damage & Casualty Estimates FOR METRO MANILA FROM A WEST VALLEY FAULT EARTHQUAKE M7.2 M6.5 Total Floor Area in Complete 88,142,000 65,407,000 to Collapsed Damage (sqm) Total Floor Area in Slight 172,924, ,799,000 to Extensive Damage (sqm) Total Fatalities (Death) 31,000 23,000 Total Injuries Very Serious 14,000 10,000 Serious 112,000 85,171 Slight 385, ,000 Total Economic Losses (millions of PhP) 2,269,000 1,773,000 Risk Analysis Project, 2013 PHIVOLCS, UP-ICE, GA (AusAID)

22 Casualty Estimates FOR METRO MANILA AND SURROUNDING PROVINCES FROM A WEST VALLEY FAULT M7.2 EARTHQUAKE LOCATION FATALITIES VERY SERIOUS INJURY Metro Manila 34,714 17,782 Bulacan 2,848 1,137 Rizal 3,266 1,640 Cavite 4,128 1,961 Laguna 3,094 1,462 Pampanga TOTAL 48,237 24,232 PHIVOLCS Estimate

23 Damages on Lifelines Water Bridges Power Roads Telecommunication Ports

24 Liquefaction Potential M7.2 West Valley Fault Earthquake LEGEND High Moderate Areas underlain by loose and water-saturated sediments prone to liquefaction. (READY for GMMA Project, 2013)

25 Earthquake Hazard Liquefaction Bridge, Luzon, Philippines1990 Port, Kobe Japan 1995 From wordpress.org Road, Mindoro, Philippines1994 From wozawanderer.blogspot.com Water pipe, New Zealand, 2010

26 How do we prepare?

27 Risk Reduction in Metro Manila (MMEIRS, 2004) Develop national governance and business systems that are resistant to strong earthquakes Improve resiliency of urban structures and settlements Enhance current risk and emergency management Enhance community disaster management capacities Formulate reconstruction system Promote research and technology development

28 Earthquake-resilient national systems Assess and improve integrity buildings against earthquake and fire hazards Implement back-up systems, back-up sites, or mirror sites for data security and other critical operations Deconcentrate (transfer) operations to strategically-located sub-offices (national government and businesses)

29 Earthquake-resistant urban structures Strengthen houses and buildings against earthquake, tsunami and fire hazards Develop and introduce affordable seismic retrofitting measures to home owners Evaluate seismic performance of public buildings and retrofit public buildings with low rating Assess seismic performance of lifelines (water, power, communication and transport facilities (roads, bridges, ports, rail) and retrofit if necessary

30 Enhanced risk and emergency management Increase proportion of fire stations per square area Establish auxiliary fire-fighting capability of private organizations Establish emergency supply system of water, food, Improve hospital capacities Establish metro-wide emergency road network Establish heavy equipment arrangements for road clearing Establish emergency protocol for road-use priority between Batangas Port and Subic-Clark to Metro Manila Retrofit Manila port to earthquake- and tsunami- resistant construction

31 Enhanced risk and emergency management Redundancies in transport systems must be developed to lower the exposure to risk Establish new roads to Metro Manila from the north and south Decongest Port of Manila operations. Batangas Port to the south and Subic Port to the north must be developed and utilized. Second airport (example Clark) outside of Metro Manila and vicinity be fully developed and utilized

32 Increased community resilience Increase disaster imagination by communities through vulnerability and capacity assessment Conduct regular simulation exercises at all levels (national level to local chief executives and staffs involved in disaster management Encourage development of Business (Service) Continuity Plans in government and private sector

33 Reconstruction Plan Develop a reconstruction plan for Metro Manila and vicinity Develop transport facility reconstruction plan Conduct regular emergency operation exercise for lifeline Develop lifeline facility reconstruction plan

34 SUMMARY A large earthquake from the West Valley Fault can significantly affect Metro Manila and vicinity. We need to understand and appreciate the hazards and risks to prepare and respond appropriately. A whole of society approach is need to prepare for the Big One. Every organization must have a business continuity plan prepare not to be severely affected, prepare that you can operate immediately and be able to respond!

35 THANK YOU.