Coordination Analysis and Scale Forecast of Urban Population Growth and Land Expansion in Henan Province

Transcription

1 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): do: /j.ajere ISSN: (Prnt); ISSN: X (Onlne) Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce Zhao Xuyan 1, Zhou Pengchao 2, Yang Yongfang 1, * 1 College of Envronment and Plannng, Henan Unversty, Kafeng, Chna 2 School of Surveyng and Urban Spatal Informaton, Henan Unversty of Urban Constructon, Pngdngshan, Chna Emal address: * Correspondng author To cte ths artcle: Zhao Xuyan, Zhou Pengchao, Yang Yongfang. Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce. mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs. Vol. 3, No. 2, 2018, pp do: /j.ajere Receved: ugust 23, 2018; ccepted: September 11, 2018; Publshed: October 12, 2018 bstract: Wth the rapd development of urbanzaton n Henan Provnce, t s of great sgnfcance to study the relatonshp between man and land n regonal ctes to grasp the qualty of urban development and to promote the healthy development of urbanzaton. In ths paper, data envelopment analyss (DE), Kernel densty analyss, gravty center model and Logstc model are used to analyze the evoluton and coordnaton of urban populaton growth and land expanson n 18 ctes of Henan Provnce from 2000 to 2014, and to predct ther overall development trend. The results show that: (1) the urban land expanson rate n Henan Provnce s faster than the populaton growth rate on the whole, the spatal dstrbuton of the two ncrement s manly n Zhengzhou, Luoyang, Luohe and other core ctes, and nyang, Nanyang, Nanyang, etc. (2) the center of gravty of urban populaton and the center of gravty of land are both located n the southeast of Zhengzhou Cty, and the coordnaton relatonshp between them presents the stuaton of "Enhancement, Stablty and Enhancement"; The spatal coordnaton between urban land expanson and populaton growth s weak, and the land advance development s the man factor. (3) before 2003, the urban populaton growth and land expanson kept n sync, The forecastng results show that slowng down the expanson of urban land properly and coordnatng the relatonshp between human and land wll be the future drecton of urbanzaton n Henan Provnce. Keywords: Henan Provnce, Data Envelope nalyss, Coordnated, Logstc Predcton 1. Introducton Snce the reform and openng up, Chna s economy has been growng rapdly, populaton urbanzaton and land urbanzaton process become accelerated sgnfcantly, and the speed and scale of urbanzaton are unprecedented [1] (Chan and Yao, 1999). The urban populaton of Chna ncreased from 89.4 mllon n 1980 to mllon n 2014, wth the average annual growth rate of 4.72%; the urban constructon land area ncreased from 6,720 km 2 n 1980 to 49, km 2 n 2014, wth the average annual growth rate of 6.08%, ndcatng land expanson much faster than populaton growth. The ultmate goal of Chna s urbanzaton s to promote the sustaned, rapd and sound development of the natonal economy, and fnally realze the coordnated development and common prosperty of urban and rural areas [2] (Chen et al., 2016). However, n the process of rapd urban expanson, there appears the problem of ncomplete urbanzaton, characterzed by the populaton urbanzaton laggng behnd the land urbanzaton [3] (Lyu et al., 2016), leadng to redstrbuton of populaton n space [4] (Nu et al., 2014), leavng a far-reachng mpact on coordnated development of resources, envronment, economy and socety [5](Feng et al., 2014), even brngng about a seres of problems such as empty ctes. Lu (2007) stated that Chna s urbanzaton s actually false [6], poor and aggressve urbanzaton wth out-of-control stuaton n space. Now, Chna remans at the key stage of rapd development of urbanzaton. The mbalance between man and land leads to sporadc development of ctes and threatens sound development of urbanzaton. Thus, how to coordnate the relatonshp between populaton growth and

2 19 Zhao Xuyan et al.: Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce land expanson s a major ssue n the promoton of new urbanzaton n Chna [7] (Yang et al., 2013). t present, studes of the coordnaton between populaton growth and land expanson manly focus on two aspects. One s the measure of external coordnaton between populaton growth and land expanson. Chnese scholars carred out speed comparson and spatal evoluton analyss on urban populaton growth and land expanson of dfferent regons and scale manly usng nternatonal experence value methods such as allometrc model and elastcty coeffcent of urban land expanson. Scholars Chen (2014), Fu (2015), and Wang (2016) made emprcal studes on the allometrc relatonshp between urban populaton growth and urban land use [8-10]; Yang (2013), and Zhou (2016) mproved the elastcty coeffcent model for urban land expanson and added the per capta urban land constrant parameter [7,11], to measure the coordnaton between urban land expanson and populaton growth. ccordng to ther studes, the urban land expanson speed was hgher than the populaton growth rate n most ctes, and ther development was not coordnated. lthough the above methods take nto account the changes n relatonshp between the urban populaton and the land, at dfferent economc development level and n dfferent context, the quanttatve matchng relatonshp between them s dfferent; thus, there wll be msunderstandng f drectly referrng to the model parameters as emprcal rules [12] (Chen et al., 2013). The other aspect s the measure of nternal coordnaton between populaton growth and land expanson. From the perspectve of urbanzaton, the evaluaton system was establshed from the aspects of socety, economy, ecology and sustanable development. The couplng coordnaton degree model was used to measure the couplng coordnaton relatonshp between urban populaton growth and land expanson. From dfferent ponts of vew and dfferent regons, Fan (2014), Lyu (2016), and Cu (2014) made a spato-temproal analyss on the couplng coordnaton between populaton urbanzaton and land urbanzaton [13,3,14], dscussed factors nfluencng ther relatonshp, and came up wth pertnent measures and recommendatons. However, the couplng coordnaton degree model s to make evaluaton based on proportonal changes n varous dmensons, whch s not consstent wth the objectve fact that the urban system s a complex non-lnear system and remans dynamcally changng [15] (Huang and Feng, 2015). Based on ths, takng 18 ctes above the prefecture level n Henan Provnce as research object, usng the data envelope analyss (DE) method, and ntroducng economc development constrants, we establshed the urban populaton and area coordnaton evaluaton model usng relatvely ndependent but not nclusve varables such as urban populaton, bult-up area, and GDP. Combned wth Kernel densty analyss and the center of gravty model, we revealed the populaton growth, land expanson, spatal change and coordnaton relatonshp of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce n , and predcted the urban populaton and bult-up area usng Logstc model, to provde certan reference for understandng the spatal and temporal evoluton process and future development trend of the relatonshp between urban populaton and land area, and properly regulatng and control the populaton-land relatonshp. 2. Study Method and Data Source 2.1. Research Methods Kernel Densty nalyss Kernel densty analyss s to calculate the data aggregaton of the entre regon accordng to the nput element data, so as to generate a contnuous densty surface [16] (Zhong et al., 2016). Usng Kernel densty analyss, t can vsually reflect the spatal densty dstrbuton and varaton trend of urban populaton and bult-up area of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce n The specfc calculaton formula s as follows: 1 f(x) = nh n K(x h x) where n s the number of research regons, = 1, 2,, n; h s bandwdth; K (x x) s the stochastc kernel estmaton functon Overall Coordnaton Measure Model In ths study, we employed the center of gravty model and spatal couplng trend of the center of gravty to reflect the overall couplng trend of land expanson and populaton growth of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce. The center of gravty model for land expanson and populaton growth s as follows: n (1) (Q(x,y)) G (x,y) = (2) n n P(Q(x,y)) G P(x,y) = (3) n P where G and G P denote the center of gravty of urban land and populaton respectvely; n s the number of research regons; and P denote the bult-up area and the year end populaton of the -th cty; x and y are the lattude and longtude of the -the cty. Usng the overlappng of spatal dstrbuton and the consstency n movement track of center of gravty, we observed the spatal couplng trend n center of gravty o18 ctes n Henan Provnce. The overlappng of spatal dstrbuton can be calculated wth the followng formula (Zhou et al., 2016): 2 P) 2 P) S = d(g,g ) = (X X + (Y Y (4) P where S refers to the dstance between the center of gravty of urban populaton and that of urban land, X and Y denote the lattude and longtude of the center of gravty; the closer the dstance, the hgher the overlappng.

3 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): The calculaton formula for consstency n movement track of center of gravty s as follows (Zhou et al., 2016): ( X XP) + ( Y YP ) C = cos θ = (5) ( X + Y ) + ( X + Y ) where cosθ denotes the cosne value of the vector angle of dsplacement of the center of gravty of urban populaton and land n ths tme pont relatve to that n last tme pont, and cosθ s n the range of [-1, 1], 1 means completely the same drecton and -1 means completely opposte drecton, the greater the value, the more consstent the varaton; X and Y denote varaton of the lattude and longtude of the center of gravty of ths tme pont relatve to the last tme pont Spatal Coordnaton Measure Model In ths study, we took the GDP of 18 ctes n these years as the output factors of the system, and took the urban populaton and bult-up area as the nput factors of the system. Usng the nput-orented CCR DE model n DEP 2.1 software, we obtaned the optmal relatonshp between urban populaton, bult-up area, and GDP on the condton that GDP s not changed. The calculaton formula for the nput-orented CCR DE model s as follows: mn θ = VD n K X + S = θx j= 1 j j n + K Y + S = Y j= 1 j j 0 Kj 0,j = 1,... n. + S 0,S 0. where X j and Y j are nput and output ndcators; K j s unt combnaton coeffcent; as judgment crteron for assessng the relatve effectveness of DMU, θ s the relatve effcency value calculated by the model; S and S + are slack varables [17] (Tan and Xu, 2012). We compared the proportonal relatonshp between deal urban populaton and bult-up area obtaned through DE model wth that between actual urban populaton and bult-up area, to measure the coordnaton between urban populaton and bult-up area. The calculaton formula s as follows: 0 P 0 P (6) L L0 C = / (7) P P where C denotes the scale coordnaton between urban populaton and area, L and P denote the actual urban bult-up area and populaton, L 0 and P 0 denote the deal bult-up area and populaton. s per C 0.5, 0.5<C 0.86, 0.86<C 1.24, 1.24 < C 1.6, and C > 1.6, we dvded the degree of coordnaton between urban populaton and land nto fve types: populaton sgnfcantly excessve, populaton obvously excessve, populaton-land bascally coordnated, land obvously excessve, and land sgnfcantly excessve Logstc Predcton Model The growth of many natural and socal phenomena takes on an S-shaped curve. ccordng to theoretcal and emprcal studes of the changes n urbanzaton level wth tme made by the Unted Natons [18] (1974), the changes n urbanzaton level wth tme take on an S-shaped curve, namely, changes n urban populaton and land also have the characterstcs of S-shaped curve. Logstc functon s a major method for descrbng such characterstcs [19] (Chen, 2009). S t = S max 1 + (Smax / S0 1)e k St where S max denotes the maxmum value of the smulated object (parameter of capacty or load); k s denotes the ntal growth rate of smulated object; t s tme seres. When t was not hgh, the Logstc growth model was about an exponental growth model Data Source The basc data n ths study manly ncluded populaton, land, and economy. The populaton data were the year end populaton (expressed n ten thousand) of the ctes, the land data were the bult-up area (km 2 ) of the ctes, the economy data were GDP (expressed n 100 mllon yuan) of the ctes. These data were selected from Chna Cty Statstcal Yearbook and Statstcal Yearbook of Henan Provnce ( , ); Zhengzhou Cty had large floatng populaton, so we took the permanent populaton of Zhengzhou ssued by Zhengzhou Statstcal Bureau as the populaton of Zhengzhou. 3. Result nalyss 3.1. Characterstcs of Urban Populaton and Land Evoluton n Henan Provnce Characterstcs of Populaton Growth and Land Expanson Based on Tme Seres In , the urban populaton and land scale of Henan Provnce showed a lnear growth trend. Specfcally, the populaton ncreased from mllon to mllon, wth the average annual growth rate of 2.78%; land scale rose from 806 km 2 to 1921 km 2, wth the average annual growth rate of 6.4%; the rato of ther average annual growth rate was 1: 2.3, much hgher than 1:1.12 wdely recognzed by domestc scholars [20] (Lu et al., 2005), ndcatng that the land expanson was sgnfcantly faster than the populaton growth, urban populaton densty declned year by year from 18,800 people/km 2 to 11,600 people/km 2, and the relatonshp between them went out of balance Characterstcs of Spatal Evoluton Kernel densty analyss can well show the spatal and temporal evoluton of urban populaton and land n Henan Provnce. From the analyss on the Kernel densty of the urban populaton and land of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce n 2000, 2014 and , t can be known that (Fgure 1): (8)

4 21 Zhao Xuyan et al.: Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce

5 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): Fgure 1. Spatal characterstcs of Kernel densty of urban populaton n Henan Provnce. (1) The spatal dstrbuton pattern of urban populaton: n 2000, the populaton densty of ctes n Henan Provnce was generally low, the populaton was manly concentrated n sngle core crcle wth Zhengzhou as the center and Luoyang as the sub-center, and populaton densty was n the range of 600-1,000; next, the populaton was manly dstrbuted n edge ctes ncludng Xnyang, Nanyang, Shangqu, and nyang, takng on ndependently decentralzed dstrbuton, and the populaton densty was below 600; n other ctes of Henan Provnce, the populaton was relatvely lttle, the populaton densty was below 300, and the urbanzaton level was very low. In 2014, the urban populaton densty of Henan Provnce ncreased sgnfcantly, wth the maxmum populaton densty rsng from 1,000 to 1,800, showng the populaton agglomeraton n a mult-core and edge form. The urban populaton was manly concentrated n the cty crcle wth Zhengzhou as the center and Luoyang as the sub-center, and the populaton densty was n the range of 1,000-1,800; the next was the cty crcle wth Luohe as the center, and the populaton densty was n the range of ; the last was edge ctes such as nyang, Xnyang, Nanyang, and Shangqu, and the populaton densty was n the range of In , urban populaton growth was manly concentrated n cty crcle wth Zhengzhou and Luohe as the center, and edge ctes such as nyang and Shangqu. On the whole, the urban populaton n Henan Provnce grew rapdly, and the dstrbuton of urban populaton formed two crcles. Frst, t s the Central Plans core urban crcle wth Zhengzhou and Luoyang as the man core and Luohe as the sub-core, manly rapd growth of the sngle core, Zhengzhou. Second, t s perpheral radated area conssted of edge ctes such as Nanyang, Xnyang, Shangqu, and nyang, where the populaton grew rapdly and populaton densty was unformly dstrbuted. (2) The pattern of spatal dstrbuton of urban land: n 2000, the urban land densty n Henan Provnce was relatvely low, and the spatal dstrbuton was more centralzed. It formed the one-core two-wng urban land dstrbuton pattern wth Zhengzhou as the center and Luoyang and nyang as the sub-center and the urban land densty of ; the land densty of other ctes was below 150. In 2014, the urban land densty of Henan Provnce rose rapdly, and the maxmum densty rose from 600 to 1,600, the growth rate of urban land densty was hgher than that of urban populaton densty. The range of core area was further expanded. It bascally establshed a trangular dstrbuton pattern wth Zhengzhou as the center, and Luoyang, Luohe, and nyang as the vertces. s the local growth core, Nanyang and Xnyang also showed hgh growth rate of urban land, and the urban land densty also rose by 2-3 grades. Other ctes also realzed rapd growth. In , urban land expanson was stll concentrated n cty clusters wth Zhengzhou and Luohe as the center and surroundng ctes such as nyang and Nanyang. Compared wth the populaton growth, urban land expanson was faster. On the whole, the urban land expanson was faster than the populaton growth rate, but the dstrbuton of urban land densty was bascally consstent wth the dstrbuton of populaton densty, ndcatng that there s a hgh correlaton between the urban populaton growth and land expanson.

6 23 Zhao Xuyan et al.: Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce

7 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): Fgure 2. Spatal characterstcs of Kernel densty of urban land n Henan Provnce Trend of the Coordnaton Between Urban Populaton and Land Trend of the Overall Coordnaton Results of the movement track of center of gravty of urban populaton and land, spatal overlappng, and varaton consstency were shown n Fgure 3 and Fgure 4. (1) Movement track of center of gravty of urban populaton and land: the center of gravty of both urban populaton and bult-up area n Henan Provnce was n southeast of Zhengzhou. Specfcally, the center of gravty of bult-up area was about 26 km from Zhengzhou downtown, whle the center of gravty of populaton was about 49.5 km from Zhengzhou downtown. Combned wth Fgure 1, t can be known that the bult-up area was manly concentrated n the core cty cluster wth Zhengzhou as the center, but the center of gravty was near Zhengzhou. The dstrbuton of center of gravty of urban populaton was nfluenced by eastern and southern large ctes such as Nanyang, Xnyang, and Shangqu, and the dstrbuton of center of gravty greatly moved towards southeast of Zhengzhou. In , the center of gravty of urban populaton moved 4.69 km to the northeast, the dstance of movement was small, and the annual average movement dstance was 1.7 km; the center of gravty of urban land moved km to the south, the movement dstance was large, about 2.84 tmes that of center of gravty of populaton, the annual average movement dstance was 2.15 km, ndcatng that the populaton and economc development were relatvely stable n 18 ctes of Henan Provnce, whle the expanson of urban bult-up area showed large fluctuaton. Fgure 3. Movement track of center of gravty of urban populaton and land n Henan Provnce.

8 25 Zhao Xuyan et al.: Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce (2) Overlappng and varaton consstency n center of gravty of urban populaton and land: the dstance between center of gravty of populaton and land showed the varaton trend of declnng stable declnng. It declned from 30 km n 2000 to km n 2004, and further declned to km n The overlappng of center of gravty became better and better, and the couplng coordnaton was also mprovng. The consstency n movement track of centers of gravty of urban populaton and land showed the same drecton opposte drecton alternate changes. lthough the consstency was not stable, the consstency ndex was generally declnng, partcularly n , the consstency ndex was below 0, and the average value was -0.19, ndcatng that the center of gravty of urban populaton and land showed movement n the opposte drecton, and the dstance between centers of gravty was constantly narrowng. ccordng to Fgure 4, we can dvde the couplng coordnaton between urban populaton growth and land expanson nto three stages. The frst stage s the year t ths stage, the center of gravty of populaton moved 4 km to the northeast, wth annual movement of 1.78 km; the center of gravty of land moved 5.48 km to the southeast, wth annual movement of 2.54 km; although the consstency ndex was above 0 on the whole and the centers of gravty moved n the same drecton, the movement of center of gravty of land was faster than that of populaton, the dstance between two centers of gravty was stll declnng (from km to km), whle the couplng coordnaton was gradually mprovng. The second stage s the year t ths stage, the center of gravty of populaton moved 4.32 km to the southeast, wth annual movement of 1.3 km; the center of gravty of land moved 3.7 km to the southwest, wth annual movement of 1.1 km; the consstency ndex changed alternately, the average value was -0.05, the dstance between centers of gravty of urban populaton and land bascally kept 25.3 km, and the couplng coordnaton was relatvely stable. The thrd stage s the year t ths stage, the center of gravty of populaton moved 4.8 km to the northwest, wth annual movement of 1.7 km; the center of gravty of land frstly moved to the east then to the southwest, and generally moved 4.6 km to the south, wth annual movement of 2.54 km; the consstency ndex was below 0, and the centers of gravty moved n the opposte drecton, the dstance between two centers of gravty was further narrowng, from km to km, whle the couplng coordnaton was further mprovng. Fgure 4. Spatal overlappng and consstency n movement of center of gravty of urban populaton and land n Henan Provnce Trend of Spatal Coordnaton Wth the ad of DE calculaton model, we obtaned the deal values of the urban populaton, bult-up area, and GDP of the ctes n Henan Provnce n , as lsted n Table 1 (not all calculaton results were ndcated): the average annual growth rate of urban populaton, land, and economy of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce was 17.84%, 21.51% and 29.19% respectvely, ndcatng that these three factors were not changed n the same proporton, the hghest growth rate came from the economc scale, followed by the land scale, and the last was the populaton. Besdes, the proportonal relatonshp between urban populaton sze and land scale was constantly changng, and t showed an upward trend on the whole. Table 1. Optmal values of urban populaton, land, and economy n Henan Provnce. Year Urban populaton Bult-up area GDP Populaton-land rato ccordng to the coordnaton measure model characterzed by the formula (6), we calculated the coordnaton degree

9 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): usng the actual values and deal values of urban populaton and land of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce. The results were ndcated n Fgure 5. Fgure 5. Coordnaton degree of urban populaton and land scale n Henan Provnce. In order to observe the spatal varaton characterstcs of every cty more vsually, we dvded the coordnaton ndex (C) of every cty nto stage and stage, calculated the average value of each stage, and obtaned the spatal dstrbuton maps (Fgure 6) for the degree of coordnaton between urban populaton and land scale of 18 ctes accordng to the gradng standard of the coordnaton ndex (C). (1) : 3 ctes had populaton obvously excessve, accountng for 13.85% of urban land and 25.77% of urban populaton; 4 ctes had bascally coordnated populaton and land, accountng for 33.83% of urban land and 32.57% of urban populaton; 9 ctes had land obvously excessve, accountng for 45.87% of urban land and 38.26% of urban populaton; 2 ctes had land sgnfcantly excessve, accountng for 6.46% of urban land and 3.4% of urban populaton. (2) : only one cty had populaton sgnfcantly excessve, accountng for 3.28% of urban land and 8.1% of urban populaton; 3 ctes had populaton obvously excessve, accountng for 16.19% of urban land and 21.21% of urban populaton; 4 ctes had bascally coordnated populaton and land, accountng for 16.03% of urban land and 17% of urban populaton; 8 ctes had land obvously excessve, accountng for 57.62% of urban land and 50.06% of urban populaton; 2 ctes had land sgnfcantly excessve, accountng for 6.88% of urban land and 3.09% of urban populaton. (3) In , the coordnated development level of every cty remaned bascally unchanged. Ctes wth excessve development of populaton ncluded Nanyang, Xnyang, Shangqu and Luohe, n whch Luohe changed from a cty wth coordnated populaton and land to a cty wth excessve populaton, whle Shangqu had aggravaton of excessve populaton. These ctes were manly dstrbuted n edge areas of Henan Provnce, had large admnstratve area, large populaton, but relatvely backward urbanzaton. There were great changes n ctes wth bascally coordnated populaton and land. Zhengzhou changed from a cty wth bascally coordnated populaton and land to a cty wth excessve development of land, whle nyang and Zhumadan changed from ctes wth excessve development of land to ctes wth bascally coordnated populaton and land. On the whole, n , the coordnaton between bult-up area and populaton sze of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce was weak, near 11 ctes had excessve development of land, accountng for 60% of the total ctes, 65% of the urban populaton and 54% the bult-up area. For the spatal dstrbuton, ctes wth excessve development of land were concentrated n areas along the Bejng-Kowloon Ralway and economcally developed areas wth Zhengzhou as the center and Luoyang and Kafeng as sub-centers. These areas were also core regons of Central Plans cty clusters, ther economy developed rapdly, and the demand of urban constructon land was hgh, so there were many ctes wth land expanson. However, there were few ctes wth bascally coordnated populaton and land and excessve development of populaton, the former was sporadcally dstrbuted, whle the latter was manly dstrbuted n edge areas of Henan Provnce, weakly nfluenced by radaton of core cty clusters, had large agrcultural populaton, and weak comprehensve strength. On the whole, Henan Provnce remaned at the stage of excessve development of land, the per capta constructon land area was very low, t ncreased from 51.6 m 2 n 2000 to 86 m 2 n 2014, the development was fast, but the overall development scale was small.

10 27 Zhao Xuyan et al.: Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce Fgure 6. Spatal pattern for coordnaton degree of urban populaton and land scale n Henan Provnce.

11 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): Predcton of Urban Populaton and Land Growth n Henan Provnce Urban development has ts nherent rules, and the government polcy-leadng urbanzaton wll nevtably affect the natural rules of urban development. Snce the coordnaton measure model only analyzes the urban populaton and land relatonshp at the current stage, t s mpossble to predct the trend of ther changes, and t s not favorable for control of cty sze and formulaton of future development plan. Therefore, we used Logstc model to predct the development trend of urban populaton and land, so as to provde certan reference for scentfcally promotng new urbanzaton n Henan Provnce. Comparatvely speakng, the longer the sample sequence, the more accurate the Logstc predcton results. Thus, we predcted the maxmum urban populaton sze and land scale and development trend accordng to urban populaton and bult-up area n 1985 (t = 0) 2014 (t = 29). The results are as follows: P t t = t e (9) = t e (10) where P t denotes the populaton, and t denotes the bult-up area. The goodness of ft (R 2 ) of both functons was hgher than 0.98, showng relable results. s shown n Fgure 7, the predcton results were well consstent wth the actual results, and can be used to reft the urban populaton and bult-up area n Henan Provnce n and predct the lmt value of urban development scale and the development trend of future 15 years or so. ccordng to predcton results, the maxmum urban populaton s 53.2 mllon, the maxmum land scale s 3,325 km 2, the per capta constructon land s 62.5 m 2, showng ntensve land use; by 2030, the urban populaton and land scale of Henan Provnce wll reach mllon and 2,710 km 2 respectvely, and the per capta constructon land wll be 78 m 2, showng some declne compared wth the year In the aspect of growth rate, when the urban populaton and land scale reached the half of maxmum value, the growth rate was the hghest. Before reachng the half value, t showed acceleraton; after reachng the half value, t showed deceleraton. In 2012, the land expanson was the fastest, whle the populaton growth rate wll reach the maxmum value n 2019; n prncple, the populaton growth should keep pace wth the land growth [1], but the populaton growth actually lags behnd the land expanson as long as 7 years. Fgure 7. Logstc growth curve and rate changes of urban populaton and area n Henan Provnce ( ). The reasons for populaton growth laggng behnd the land expanson are possbly: n 2013, Henan Provnce proposed the strategc dea of developng Central Plans cty clusters; also n 2013, the constructon of Zhengdong New Dstrct of Zhengzhou rased the curtan of rapd urbanzaton constructon of Henan Provnce, then Henan Provnce entered the stage of rapd development of urbanzaton; however, rapd urban expanson broke nherent rules and features of urbanzaton, and urban land orgnally laggng behnd started exceedng the urban populaton. Therefore, we assumed that the populaton growth changed n pace wth the land expanson before Usng the data of , we reftted the Logstc growth model (because S max obtaned from formula (9) and formula (10) s credble, t s unnecessary to reft S max ), and the results are as follows: P t t = t e (11) = t e (12) The goodness of ft (R 2 ) of the model was above 0.99, showng excellent fttng effect. s shown n Fgure 8, f the urban populaton growth and land expanson are not devatng from the trend before 2003, the growth rate of both wll reach

12 29 Zhao Xuyan et al.: Coordnaton nalyss and Scale Forecast of Urban Populaton Growth and Land Expanson n Henan Provnce the maxmum value n ccordng to predcton results, n 2014, the urban land scale of Henan Provnce wll be 1,470 km 2, the populaton wll reach mllon, the per capta constructon land wll be 60.8 m 2, but the actual urban populaton lagged behnd the predcton value about 1.9 mllon, and actual land scale exceeded the predcton value about 451 km 2, ndcatng that the polces such as Central Plans cty cluster plan and acceleraton of urbanzaton constructon are man factors leadng to the mbalance between urban populaton growth and land expanson, so the above assumpton holds true. Fgure 8. Logstc growth curve and rate changes of urban populaton and area n Henan Provnce ( ). In sum, n , the urban populaton growth bascally kept coordnated wth the land expanson speed and scale, and the development of both bascally kept n pace wth each other. fter 2003, wth the development of Chna s urbanzaton and the polcy support of the constructon of Central Plans cty clusters, the urban ndustralzaton process and economc development level of Henan Provnce have been rapdly mprovng, whch provdes a powerful force for development of urban modernzaton. However, because of perspectve and laggng of urban plan, such government-leadng top-down urbanzaton constructon wll nevtably lead to the populaton growth slower than the land expanson n a certan perod, consequently leadng to the land expanson ahead of the populaton growth for 7 years and makng t more dffcult to predct the urban development trend. ccordng to the lmt scale and the per capta land area obtaned on the bass of populaton and land n 2014, the deal per capta land area s m 2. ccordng to predcton results of formula (9) and formula (10), n future 16 years, the urban populaton ncrease wll be mllon, the land scale ncrease wll be 789 km 2, the ncrement of per capta land area s 63.3 m 2, whch s n the deal range, ndcatng that urban populaton growth of Henan Provnce wll enter the stage of acceleraton, whle the bult-up area expanson wll enter the stage of deceleraton, and the growth scale of both wll return to the reasonable state. Local government should deepen the nnovaton of system and mechansm and formulate scentfc plan for new urbanzaton development n the process of urbanzaton constructon, and promote the new urbanzaton n a people-orented manner. 4. Conclusons In ths study, we manly appled the data envelope analyss (DE) to buld urban populaton and land expanson coordnaton evaluaton model, analyzed the development changes and coordnaton relatonshp between populaton growth and land expanson n dfferent tme and 18 ctes of Henan Provnce, and used Logstc model to predct the development trend of urban populaton growth and land scale n Henan Provnce. We obtaned followng results: (1) On the whole, n , both the urban populaton and land scale realzed rapd growth, but the land expanson was sgnfcantly faster than the populaton growth, and urban populaton densty declned year by year. In the spatal dstrbuton, the urban populaton growth and land expanson showed core-edge crcle characterstcs, wth major growth n core ctes such as Zhengzhou, Luoyang, and Luohe, and auxlary growth n edge ctes such as nyang, Nanyang, and Xnyang. Generally, the land expanson was faster than the populaton growth, but the dstrbuton of urban land densty was bascally consstent wth the dstrbuton of populaton densty, ndcatng a hgh correlaton between them. (2) The coordnaton relatonshp between land expanson and populaton growth of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce was constantly changng. Frstly, the center of gravty of both urban populaton and bult-up area n Henan Provnce was n southeast of Zhengzhou, and the coordnaton relatonshp between them showed the enhancng stable enhancng trend. Specfcally, n , the center of gravty of populaton moved to the northeast, whle the center of gravty of land moved to the southeast, and the coordnaton between them was gradually enhancng; n , the center of gravty of populaton moved to the southeast, whle the center of gravty of land moved to the southwest, and the coordnaton between them kept stable; n , the center of gravty of populaton moved to the northwest, whle the center of gravty of land frstly moved to the east and then

13 mercan Journal of Envronmental and Resource Economcs 2018; 3(2): to southwest, and the coordnaton between them was further enhancng. Secondly, from the perspectve of characterstcs of spatal coordnaton and dstrbuton pattern, the coordnaton between land scale and populaton sze of 18 ctes n Henan Provnce was weak, the land development was excessve, but the per capta constructon land area dd not exceed the standard specfed by the state. Ctes wth excessve development of land were manly concentrated n the core regons of Central Plans cty cluster wth Zhengzhou as the center; there were few ctes wth coordnated populaton-land relatonshp and excessve populaton growth; the former took on scattered dstrbuton, whle the latter was manly dstrbuted n edge regons of Henan Provnce. (3) Logstc predcton results: the maxmum urban populaton s 53.2 mllon, the maxmum land scale s 3,325 km 2, the deal per capta land area s 60-65m 2 ; before 2003, the urban populaton growth kept n pace wth land expanson n Henan Provnce; after 2003, due to government plans such as constructon of Central Plans Economc Regon and the rse of central regons, urban land s rapdly expandng and ahead of the populaton growth for 7 years; n 2030, the urban populaton wll be mllon, land scale wll be 2,710 km 2, the per capta land area wll be 78 m 2, such results are credble. In , the ncrement of per capta land area s 63.3 m 2, whch s n the deal range, ndcatng that the growth of urban populaton and land expanson wll become coordnated n future. cknowledgements Great grattude to the fund support of the Natonal Natural Scence Foundaton of Chna ( ), Henan provncal government decson research tenderng project (2017B189), Henan Provnce Phlosophy and Socal Scence Plannng Project (2014BJJ001). 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