The European Commission s science and knowledge service. Joint Research Centre

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1 The European Commission s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre

2 Global Urbanisation Pattern observed with EO data Thomas Kemper & GHSL team Urban Studies Symposium, University of Twente, 13 June 2018

3 The Global Human Settlement Layer GEO Human Planet Initiative

4 The Global Human Settlement Layer SATELLITE IMAGERY GHSL Global: any open and free decametric-scale or better platform/data Landsat MSS TM ETM - 15, 30, 80 m Sentinel , 20 m Symbolic Machine Learning New approach inspired to DNA sequencing and characterization GHSL Regional/national: depending on bilateral data agreements Europe, South Africa, Syria Spot 2.5, 1.5 m Brazil: CBERS 2.5, RapidEye 4m China: DBAR tbd Spatial-Temporal Harmonized Global Data Spatial Data Modelling New models facilitating the science2policy GEO Human Planet Initiative

5 The Global Human Settlement Layer Operates in a open and free data and methods access policy (open input, open method, open output) Reproducible, scientifically defendable, fine-scale, synoptic, complete, planetary-size, and cost-effective information production Facilitating information sharing and multilateral democratization of the information production, collective knowledge building GEO Human Planet Initiative

6 What we detect: built-up area = all spatial units (30x30m Landsat, 10x10m Sentinel) where a 20 October 2014 roofed building or part of a building can be recognized 6

7 Enhancing the perception of the reality Chicago, US MERIS GLOBCOVER (300m resolution) urban areas Landsat GHSL (30m resolution) built-up areas

8 Enhancing the perception of the reality Evolutionary, self-learning artificial intelligence data cubes New Delhi, India Landsat GHSL (release 2015) built-up areas Sentinel1 GHSL (release 2016) built-up areas 2016 Landsat GHSL (release 2017 reloaded) built-up areas

9 Enhancing the perception of the reality Evolutionary, self-learning artificial intelligence data cubes New Delhi, India Landsat GHSL (release 2015) built-up areas Sentinel1 GHSL (release 2016) built-up areas 2016 Landsat GHSL (release 2017 reloaded) built-up areas

10 Enhancing the perception of the reality Evolutionary, self-learning artificial intelligence data cubes New Delhi, India Landsat GHSL (release 2015) built-up areas Sentinel1 GHSL (release 2016) built-up areas 2016 Landsat GHSL (release 2017 reloaded) built-up areas

11 Imagery Built-up areas Population Settlement

12 Imagery

13 Built-up areas

14 Population density

15 Settlement MODel

16 Settlement MODel

17 Unveiling new perspectives of urbanization if the density of population it is used as objective criteria for distinction of urban vs. rural areas, Europe is the region showing the highest share of rural population in 2015 From the European Cities Report, European Commission, DG REGIO

18 Spatial Expansion and Demographic growth 3 main trajectories across world regions People 10 6 Evolution of Built-up Areas and Population in Urban Areas per Region of the World , Asia Asia -Africa and LAC -Europe and North America 0 Africa Latin America and the Oceania Caribbean Europe Northern America Built-up area 10 3 km 2

19 Urbanisation and demographic growth The degree of urbanisation in LIC increased by 14% in 25 years Urban Population Billion People 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 Change in the Degree of Urbanization and Urban Population in Selected Income Classes LIC UMC LMC 0,0 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Degree of Urbanisation

20 Urbanisation and urban development 75% 50% Allocation of spatial and demographic change per settlement typology % 65% of global population growth took place in Urban Centres 0% Built-up Population Built-up Population Built-up Population Urban Centres Urban Clusters Rural

21 13,000 Cities

22 Population Growth in Cities

23 Population Decline

24 Brightening and Darkening Centres

25 Greening Urban Centres

26 City Comparisons 675 km M Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam 3523 km M Chicago, USA

27 16 Sociospatial patterns of change Million People Population Built-up Areas 8 Chicago Ho Chi Minh City 6x 3x Chicago 1x 2x Thousands km 2

28 Comparisons TOP10s

29 Conclusions & Outlook Free and open EO data combined with population data provides new insights in global urbanization pattern: Africa and Asia are more urbanized than Europe Next steps: Improving the spatial detail using Sentinel-1/2 Develop a continuous monitoring in Copernicus Gaps: Usage of buildings: residential vs. commercial Height of buildings: built-up volume Future projections: where are cities growing?

30 Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) The most complete, consistent, global, free and open data set on human settlements. from the village to the megacity, for the epochs Full open free data and tools at GEO Human Planet Initiative

31 The GEO Human Planet core partnership The Group on Earth Observations (GEO) is a voluntary partnership of governments and organisations that envisions "a future wherein decisions and actions for the benefit of humankind are informed by coordinated, comprehensive and sustained Earth observations and information". New initiative in the GEO work programme supporting the GEO Strategic Plan Aims to support novel evidence-based assessment of the human presence on the planet Earth.