The South Atlantic LCC s Third Thursday Web Forum

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1 The South Atlantic LCC s Third Thursday Web Forum Establishing explicit biological objectives to guide Strategic Habitat Conservation for the Gulf coast

2 Agenda Introduction Monthly topic Questions and discussion about presentation Preview of next webinar and LCC staff updates Questions and discussion about updates 2

3 Establishing explicit biological objectives to guide Strategic Habitat Conservation for the Gulf coast James Cronin, U.S. Geological Survey

Establishing explicit biological objectives to guide strategic habitat conservation for the gulf coast James Cronin 1, Blair Tirpak 2, Leah Dale 1, Virginia Brink 1 & John Tirpak 3 1 USGS

4 Establishing explicit biological objectives to guide strategic habitat conservation for the gulf coast James Cronin 1, Blair Tirpak 2, Leah Dale 1, Virginia Brink 1 & John Tirpak 3 1 USGS Wetland and Aquatic Research Center Lafayette LA 2 GCP LCC, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, Lafayette LA 3 USFWS Gulf Restoration Program, Lafayette LA 2017 GCP & GCPO LCC Project Report

5 Project Overview 1. Unprecedented dollars for restoration are coming to the Gulf of Mexico. 2. Widespread concern that the response will be inefficient and uncoordinated.

6 Project Overview Problem: Many partnerships and programs identified priorities and developed objectives, but they use: Inconsistent nomenclature Varied selection criteria Different spatial and temporal scales Diverse suite of metrics Goal: Develop a common vision for gulf restoration. Approach: Develop decision support tools to help establish biological objectives for species representative of sustainable gulf habitats.

7 Biological Objectives for the Gulf Coast Working Group (BOGC)

8 USFWS: Vision for a healthy Gulf of Mexico watershed

9 Tool 1: Biological Planning Units

10 Tool 2: 88 Priority Species & Population Objectives Species: Drafted by team of USFWS, USGS, and LCC/SECAS-affiliated staff and partners. Objectives: Obtained or derived from Recovery Plans, Regional Plans, unpublished studies, etc.

11 Tool 3: Spatially Explicit Habitat Objectives No$ Protected$ Acres needed for population objective Uniformed by Model: 1081 Informed by Model: 347

12 Brown Pelican

13 Spatial Extent: 31, 576 GoM Islands 2010 C-CAP: land surrounded by water within 21 km of coastal islands > 1 pixel (30 x 30 m)

14 Population Objectives Biological Planning Unit Laguna Madre 1,460 Texas Mid-Coast 1,651 Chenier Plain 1,485 MS River Delta, Coastal Wetlands, and Barrier Islands 16,204 Northern Gulf and Panhandle Beaches 3,143 Big Bend 2,357 Tampa Bay 2,063 Caloosahatchee 2,888 Big Cypress / Everglades 688 Nesting Pairs a Florida Keys 3,025 (800 b ) Total 34,964 (32,739) a Objectives from Southeast Waterbird plan, relativized based on colony counts from across Gulf, accounting for nesting colonies along the Florida s Atlantic Coast. b Reported in the Recovery Plan

15 Influence Diagram Humans Onshore Humans Offshore ersistence Colony Island Persistence Use Mean Nest Count Predators

16 Influence Diagram Humans Onshore Distance to Nearest Launch (km) Connectivity to Mainland Humans Offshore ersistence Colony Island Persistence Use Mean Nest Count Humans per km2 Predators

17 Influence Diagram Beach (ha) Humans Onshore Distance to Nearest Launch (km) Connectivity to Mainland Humans Offshore ersistence Colony Island Persistence Use Mean Nest Count Humans per km2 Predators

18 Influence Diagram Beach (ha) Humans Onshore Distance to Nearest Launch (km) rsistence Connectivity to Mainland Humans Offshore Colony Island Persistence Use Mean Nest Count Humans per km2 Predators Maximum Elevation (m) Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Island Size (ha) Region

19 Influence Diagram Beach (ha) Humans Onshore Distance to Nearest Launch (km) Connectivity to Mainland Humans Offshore ersistence Colony Island Persistence Use Mean Nest Count Humans per km2 Predators Maximum Elevation (m) Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Island Size (ha) Region

20 Influence Diagram Beach (ha) Humans Onshore Distance to Nearest Launch (km) ersistence Connectivity to Mainland Humans Offshore Colony Island Persistence Use Mean Nest Count Humans per km2 Predators Maximum Elevation (m) Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Island Size (ha) Region

21 SEBN 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Low Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present ersistence Humans Offshore Low High Predators Colony Persistence 0 0 to to to 1 Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

22 SEBN: Discretized Which states? How many states? Thresholds? 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Low Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present ersistence Humans Offshore Low High Predators Colony Persistence 0 0 to to to 1 Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

23 SEBN: Probabilistic Landscape Level (i.e., randomly selected GoM island) Uncertainty 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Low Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present ersistence Humans Offshore Low High Predators Colony Persistence 0 0 to to to 1 Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

24 SEBN: Probabilistic Island Level (i.e., a specific island) ersistence Island Use

25 SEBN: Probabilistic Model parameterized using Conditional Probability Tables (CPT). Predictors Response Estimate probabilities from 1. Empirical datasets 2. Expert knowledge and/or beliefs

26 SEBN 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Low Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present ersistence Humans Offshore Low High Predators Colony Persistence 0 0 to to to 1 Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

27 SEBN

28 SEBN 34% 42% 15%

SEBN: GIS GIS Inputs (i.e., each island s habitat characteristic) 0 0 to 0.9 0.9 to 2.9 2.9 to 13 13 to 28 28 to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) 63.7 29.2 4.03 1.96 0.52 0.

29 SEBN: GIS GIS Inputs (i.e., each island s habitat characteristic) 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Low Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present ersistence Humans Offshore Low High Predators Colony Persistence 0 0 to to to 1 Island Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

SEBN: GIS GIS Outputs (i.e., predicted states for all islands). 0 0 to 0.9 0.9 to 2.9 2.9 to 13 13 to 28 28 to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) 63.7 29.2 4.03 1.96 0.52 0.

02 Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to 11 11 to 70 70 to 140 140 to 250 250 to 890 47.5 34.0 11.3 1.89 5.32 0.36 18.4 81.2 96.2 0.75 Humans Onshore Low High Low High Absent Present 63.8 36.2 44.0 56.

30 SEBN: GIS GIS Outputs (i.e., predicted states for all islands). 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 ersistence GIS: Connectivity to Mainland 0 Humans Offshore ersistence Low 3.02 Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Low High Absent Present Predators Colony Persistence Island Use 0 to to to 1 Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

31 Decision Support Tools Model Predictions

32 Decision Support Tools Sensitivity Analyses Variable Mean Nest Count Sensitivity Occupancy Rate Sensitivity Occupancy Rate GIS: Shrub Human Onshore Activity GIS: Region Predators GIS: Hectares GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Human Offshore Activity Humans per km2 < < GIS: Nearest Boat Launch (km) < < GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) < <

33 Decision Support Tools Scenarios Raccoon Island ersistence Island Use

34 Decision Support Tools Scenarios Raccoon Island ersistence Island Use

35 Decision Support Tools Population Objectives Biological Planning Unit (BPU) Population Objective: Nesting Pairs Total Predicted Nest Count Predicted Deficit: Objective - Predicted Big Bend Watershed Big Cypress/Everglades Caloosahatchee River Chenier Plain Florida Keys Laguna Madre MS Rr Delta, CW, & Barrier Islands Northern Gulf & Panhandle Beaches Tampa Bay Texas Mid-Coast

Decision Support Tools Revise GIS Inputs to reflect conservation and/or restoration actions 0 0 to 0.9 0.9 to 2.9 2.

47.5 34.0 11.3 1.89 5.32 0.36 18.4 81.2 3.02 96.2 0.75 Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present 63.8 36.

9 to 1 Island Use 94.1 1.00 3.03 1.83 0.0431 ± 0.

36 Decision Support Tools Revise GIS Inputs to reflect conservation and/or restoration actions 0 0 to to to to to 9829 GIS: Beach (ha) GIS: Distance to Nearest Launch (km) 0 to to to 121 GIS: Connectivity to Mainland Low Medium High GIS: Humans per km2 0 to to to to to Humans Onshore Low High Absent Present ersistence Humans Offshore Low High Predators Colony Persistence 0 0 to to to 1 Island Use ± 0.18 Mean Nest Count 0 0 to to to to to to ± 220 GIS: Maximum Elevation (m) 0 to to GIS: Shrub/Scrub/Mangrove Absent Present GIS: Island Size (ha) 0 to to to to Central West East GIS: Region

37 Brown Pelican Model: In revision 1. Internal review revisions 2. Data problems (e.g., human activity, bird survey data, elevation) Final Report: In prep 1. Drafted appendices 2. Drafted GIS metadata 3. ScienceBase & Journal Article Photo credit: Tom Vizo

38 Beach Mouse

39 Population Objectives 1. Self sustaining populations in critical habitat areas. 2. > 50% or > 87% critical habitat protected and occupied.

40 Influence Diagram

41 Parameterize Hypothesized Relationships 1. Simplifying assumptions e.g., Water is unsuitable for burrows 2. Empirical data e.g., Track tube data Perdido Key, FL 3. Expert Elicitation e.g., 8 / 10 times frontal dune is suitable for burrows

42 SEBN

43 SEBN Scenarios

44 SEBN Scenarios

45 Habitat Objective P[Occupied] No$ rotected$

No Critical Habitat Yes No$ rotected$ 2490 critical acres * 0.87.

46 Habitat Objective: Saint Andrews Beach Mouse P[Occupied] No Protected Yes > 87% Critical Habitat is protected & occupied. No Critical Habitat Yes No$ rotected$ 2490 critical acres * acres minimum Critical, Protected, & Occupied 1269 acres needed Example Scenarios A: Random weighted by P[Occupied] = 1081 acres B: Target greatest P[Occupied] = 347 acres

47 Habitat Objective: Saint Andrews Beach Mouse PKBM: 0 acres CBM: 0 acres SABM: acres Frequency Targeted: 0 +/ 0 Random: 0 +/ Targeted: 0 +/ 0 Random: 0 +/ Targeted: / 0 Random: / Acres Acres Acres

48 Beach Mice Model: Completed Internal & External Reviews: Completed Final Report: In prep a. Appendices completed b. Metadata completed c. ScienceBase and Journal Article

49 Gulf Sturgeon Photo credit: Jack Osborne Photo credit: Carlton Ward

Gulf Sturgeon: Population Objective Recovery Plan: Adult short-term CPUE; Long-term self-sustaining Species Experts: Total time juveniles (age 0-1) occupy critical winter habitat

50 Gulf Sturgeon: Population Objective Recovery Plan: Adult short-term CPUE; Long-term self-sustaining Species Experts: Total time juveniles (age 0-1) occupy critical winter habitat and identify data limitations. Spawning Areas Larva-9 months Age 1- Adult Summer Resting Barrier islands Gulf of Mexico Estuary Juvenile winter foraging Sub-adult/Adult Marine Foraging

51 Gulf Sturgeon: Spatial Extent

52 Influence Diagram

53 Parameterized Hypothesized Relationships 1. GIS Input data were sufficient only for Apalachicola Bay. 2. There is no data available for the 0 age class (i.e., data and knowledge poor).

54 Gulf Sturgeon: GIS Input data availability *Minimum criteria for sufficient : Shapefile was both current and had full spatial and temporal coverage.

55 Gulf Sturgeon: Model

SEBN: Predicted Occupancy Days 0 0-3 3-6

56 SEBN: Predicted Occupancy Days

57 SEBN: Predicted Occupancy Days

58 Gulf Sturgeon Arrival Month Month Below LTA At LTA Above LTA October October 71,748.1 November 53, ,748.1 December 53, , ,806.1 January 324, ,806.1 February 560, ,806.1 March 648, ,806.1 April 648,806.1 November November 48, ,083.3 December 48, , ,116.6 January 172, ,806.1 February 465, ,806.1 March 648, ,084.2 April 637,642.7 December December 48, , ,788.6 January 83, ,593.5 February 31, ,530.4 March 562, ,935.8 April 548,488.1 January January 48, ,638.7 February 119, ,662.3 March 406, ,783.2 April 468,511.2 February February 77, ,656.5 March 263, ,336.7 April 336,082.9

59 Gulf Sturgeon Model: Completed Internal Review: Completed Final Report: In prep a. Appendices completed b. Metadata completed c. ScienceBase and Journal Article Photo credit: Carlton Ward

60 Project Summary Tool 1: Map of 16 Biological Planning Units & Aquatic Extensions. Tool 2: Dataset of 88 priority species and population objectives. Tool 3: Beach Mice, Brown Pelican, and Gulf Sturgeon Influence Diagrams Spatially Explicit Bayesian Network Models Maps of model predictions

61 Gull-billed Tern & Black Skimmer Photo Credit: Tyson Crouch at Bayou Platte

62 Spatial Extent Extend Brown Pelican spatial extent to include mainland, with 200 meters inland from mainland-water interface

63 Population Objectives Biological Planning Unit Laguna Madre Texas Mid-Coast Chenier Plain MS RD, Coastal Wetlands, and Barrier Islands BLSK Nesting Pairs a 9,375 b 5,625 c Northern Gulf and Panhandle Beaches 2,586 Big Bend 200 Tampa Bay 1,158 Caloosahatchee 42 GBTE Nesting Pairs Total 18,986 a From IBNB Plan (2013), with further refinement in IBNB's Southwest Region (Tampa Bay and Caloosahatchee BPUs) based on FSA data from ; TX and LA numbers based on SE Waterbird Plan (p 66), objective relative to current numbers. b Includes entire TX portion of BCR 37; Chenier Plain also contains portion of LA objective (5,625 pairs) c inclues entire LA portion of BCR 37

64 Influence Diagram Marsh Island West Raccoon Photo Credit: James Cronin Photo Credit: Megan Nepshinsky Shell Islands off Marsh Island Bayou Platte Post Rest 15 Photo Credit: James Cronin Photo Credit: Tyson Crouch

65 Influence Diagram Pixel vs. Colony Site Pixel Level 10 m 10 m Nest site suitability (0 1) Colony Site Level Colony site: contiguous pixels with a nest site suitability > 0 Site A Site A Colony site area: 4 x 10 m = 400 m2 Site B Colony site quality: =

66 Influence Diagram Pixel Level Colony Site Level

Brush Amanda Hackney Will Selman Bill Vermillion Adam Kaeser

67 Acknowledgements Project Team Species Experts Sandra Sneckenberger Bill Lynn Janneke Visser Paul Leiberg Janell Brush Amanda Hackney Will Selman Bill Vermillion Adam Kaeser Michael Randall Mark Peterson Todd Slack Steve Leitman Skip Livingston

Next Third Thursday Web Forum 3-16-2017 10:00 am The Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Cynthia Edwards, Southeast

68 Next Third Thursday Web Forum :00 am The Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Cynthia Edwards, Southeast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Rua Mordecai, South Atlantic LCC 68

69 LCC staff updates South Atlantic 2017 Blueprint workshop registration open Gulf Coast Prairie webinar on alligator gar Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks webinar on ecosystem services 69

70 Register for a 2017 Blueprint workshop! Registration is now open Chapel Hill, NC: Tuesday 3/21/17 Tallahassee, FL: Tuesday 4/11/17 Atlanta, GA: Thursday 4/13/17 Richmond, VA: Thursday 4/27/17 Charleston, SC: Tuesday 5/2/17 Columbia, SC: Thursday 5/4/17 Learn more at southatlanticlcc.org/2017- blueprint-workshops 70

71 Upcoming GCP LCC webinar Quantification of Alligator Gar Recruitment Dynamics Using a River-Stage Specific Floodplain Inundation Model Wednesday March 1st, 12:00 pm Central/1:00 pm Eastern Register on the GCP LCC website under Resources/tools - webinars 71

72 Upcoming GCPO LCC webinar 2 nd half of Ecosystem Services project April/May Check the GCPO newsletter and website for more details 72

73 How to get involved with your cooperative Join the South Atlantic LCC web community southatlanticlcc.org Connect with a staff or other cooperative member Explore the Conservation Blueprint southatlanticlcc.org/blueprint 73

74 Questions? 74

THE GULF COAST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT:

THE GULF COAST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: Informing Adaptation Options in Landscape Conservation Design Cynthia Edwards GCPO and GCP LCC Wildlife Management Institute Peninsular Florida LCC Steering Committee