THE GULF COAST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT:

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1 THE GULF COAST VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: Informing Adaptation Options in Landscape Conservation Design Cynthia Edwards GCPO and GCP LCC Wildlife Management Institute Peninsular Florida LCC Steering Committee Meeting June 4 th, 2015

2 Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA) Project Goal: Enhance conservation and restoration planning and implementation by providing an understanding of the effects of climate change, sea level rise, and land use change on Gulf of Mexico coastal habitats and their species. Gather expertise from across the Gulf Inform Gulf-wide strategies

3 Why? Changing Conditions Conservation is increasingly challenging and complex Population and resource demands = ecosystem impacts Climate change exacerbates the problem Need to incorporate changing conditions gulfcouncil.org

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6 Vulnerability Assessments Which habitats or species are most vulnerable? Where? Set conservation priorities Why are they vulnerable? What can we do about it? Select adaptation strategies Glick, P., B.A. Stein, and N.A. Edelson, editors Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. National Wildlife Federation, Washington, D.C.

7 Study Area 6 sub-regions Laguna Madre Western Gulf Coastal Plain Mississippi Alluvial Plain Southern Coastal Plain Central FL Coastal Plain Southern FL Coastal Plain

8 GCVA Pilot Ecosystems Barrier Islands Tidal Emergent Marsh Oyster Reefs Mangroves

9 GCVA Pilot Ecosystems and Species Barrier Islands Black Skimmer Wilson s Plover Kemp s Ridley Sea Turtle Tidal Emergent Marsh Mottled Duck Spotted Seatrout Blue Crab Clapper Rail Oyster Reefs Eastern Oyster American Oystercatcher Red Drum Mangroves Roseate Spoonbill

10 Temporal Aspects Climate Scenarios High CO2 emissions (A2) 0.82m sea level rise Low CO2 emissions (B1) 0.82m sea level rise Low CO2 emissions (B1) 0.41m sea level rise Planning Horizon 2060

11 Standardized Index of Vulnerability and Value Assessment Spreadsheet tool Expert opinion Qualitative scores Habitats and species Multiple values Ecological Conservation Economic Evolutionary Uncertainty Published Reece et al. 2014

12 Data Sources for GCVA Habitat and Species Maps Conservation Lands Sea Level Rise Urbanization Climate Projections Air Temperature Precipitation Salinity Sea Surface Temperature

13 Sets of assessments Preliminary Results 144 sets of assessments by 59 individual experts

14 Habitat Assessments Ecosystem Status: historical decline in area and ecosystem function; geographic extent Vulnerability: expected loss to sea level rise and urbanization, threat from invasive species, range shift constraints, etc.

15 Species Assessments Potential Impact (Exposure + Sensitivity): includes temperature and precipitation ranges, SLR impact, exposure to salinity, etc. Adaptive Capacity: mobility, genetic diversity, generation time, etc.

16 Ecosystem: Tidal Emergent Marsh Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

17 Tidal Emergent Marsh Species: Mottled Duck Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High: Adapted to urban landscapes?

18 Tidal Emergent Marsh Species: Clapper Rail Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High: Mangrove Clapper Rail? Lack of information

19 Ecosystem: Barrier Islands Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

20 Barrier Island Species: Black Skimmer Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High: SLR and beach fragmentation Human disturbance

21 Barrier Island Species: Kemp s Ridley Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High: Only assessed in SCP Limited knowledge

22 Ecosystem: Mangrove Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

23 Mangrove Species: Roseate Spoonbill Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High: SLR impacts higher in CFCP Less protected area

24 Data Needs Combined effects of sea level rise, land-use change, and climate change on species and ecosystems Changes to biotic interactions Future tropical storm activity Genetic information

25 Management Actions Watershed management practices Ecosystem needs Human needs Manage for the fringes of site suitability Reducing human impacts Raising awareness of nesting birds Reducing bycatch mortality Kemp s Ridley Preventing overharvesting of oysters

26 Primary Audiences Managers Stepped down management plans Adaptation RFPs Scientists/Funders Research RFPs Planners Regional conservation design/adaptation strategies SECAS linkage

27 Next Steps Preparing GCVA Report Review by the Core Planning Team ongoing Targeted application of information Information transfer distribution of report, webinars, etc. Science coordination translating data deficiencies into science needs and RFPs Conservation design Gulf Coast Conservation Adaptation Strategy Roll out at GOMA All Hands Meeting Biloxi, MS in June 2015 Assess other habitats and species phase 2

28 GCVA Partners Gulf of Mexico Alliance Landscape Conservation Cooperatives Climate Science Centers NOAA MSU/NGI Valdosta State University

29 Co-authors include: Amanda Watson Northern Gulf Institute/MSU Josh Reece Valdosta State University John M. Tirpak USFWS/Gulf Restoration Program Rua Mordecai USFWS/SALCC Steve Traxler USFWS/PFLCC James W. Pahl LA Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Blair E. Tirpak USGS/GCPLCC Cynthia Edwards GCPLCC

30 Ecosystem & Species Expert Team (ESET) Leads: Mark Woodrey Grand Bay NERR/Mississippi State University Tidal Emergent Marsh Laura Geselbracht The Nature Conservancy Mangroves P. Soupy Dalyander U. S. Geological Survey Barrier Islands Megan LaPeyre Louisiana State University Oyster Reefs

31 Acknowledgements Core Planning Team: Bill Bartush, GCPLCC Jorge Brenner, TNC David Brown, NOAA Cynthia Edwards, GCPLCC David Kidwell, NOAA Ken McDermond, SALCC Rua Mordecai, SALCC Jim Pahl, LCPRA George Ramseur, MS DMR Blair Tirpak, GCPLCC John Tirpak, FWS Adam Terando, SE CSC Steve Traxler, PFLCC Greg Wathen, GCPOLCC Ecosystem and Species Team Leads: Soupy Dalyander, USGS (Barrier Islands) Laura Geselbracht, TNC (Mangroves) Megan La Peyre, LSU (Oyster Reefs) Mark Woodrey, MSU (Tidal Emergent Marsh) All of the species and habitat assessors. SIVVA Guidance- Josh Reece

32 Questions? Amanda Watson, GCVA Coordinator Cynthia Edwards, Interim Coordinator

33 Ecosystem: Oyster Reef Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

34 Oyster Reef Species: American Oystercatcher Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

35 Oyster Reef Species: Eastern Oyster Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

36 Oyster Reef Species: Red Drum Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

37 Tidal Emergent Marsh Species: Blue Crab Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

38 Tidal Emergent Marsh Species: Spotted Seatrout Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High:

39 Barrier Island Species: Wilson s Plover Vulnerability Values Very low: Low: Moderate: High: Very High: