Debris Flow Modeling & Regulations in Aspen, Colorado
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1 TETRA TECH River, Costal ASFPM & Engineering May 2017 Group Ft Collins Debris Flow Modeling & Regulations in Aspen, Colorado Dai Thomas, PhD, PE Andrew Earles, PhD, PE Wright Water Engineers Jim O Brien, PhD, PE - FLO-2D April Long, P.E. City of Aspen 3 rd May 2017 TETRA TECH
2 Aspen Mountain
3 Geology and Mining It s complicated!
4 Tourtelotte Park c
5 Historic TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 September 1919 Cloudburst yellow clay mud from the mountain August inches in 1 hour Pioneer Gulch up to 5 of mud June 1984 Strawpile Landslide
6 Strawpile Landslide TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 June 1984 Downtown Evacuated 28 to 62 feet deep ~15 acres
7 Mudflow Characteristics TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Flow (cfs) Concentration by vol. Concentration by Weight (C W ) Water Flow Mud Flood Mud Flow Transition Zone Landslide Concentration by Volume (C V ) Time (hrs) Flow Bulked Flow Sed. Conc
8 Mudflow Characteristics Saturated Soil Conditions Sediment Rainfall (10 to 25-Year Event)
9 Mudflood
10
11 Existing Regulations WRC Drainage Master Plan (2001) Areas on or within 200 feet of slope greater than 30% Areas south of Durant St located within 2ft mudflow depth on the 100-yr mudplain map Slopes greater than 30% This map/drawing/image is a graphical representation of the features depicted and is not a legal representation. The accuracy may change depending on the enlargement or recustion.
12 Existing Regulations TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Similar to FEMA procedure Duplicate Effective 100-Year Peak Flow Event Sediment Concentration 45% Existing Conditions Project Conditions
13 Existing Regulations TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Evaluate downfan impacts No increase in mudflow depths on neighboring properties Evaluate static and dynamic forces on structures Identify potential mitigation measures Store mudflow Convey mudflow to streets
14 Existing Example Project
15 Increase in Depth
16 Current Study TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Evaluate potential impact to City Historical Review Geologic Investigation Develop new mudflow flow (FLO-2D) model 2-Hour, 2-, 25-, and 100-Year Rainfall Events Depth and Extent of Flooding Hazard Mapping Wildfire Analysis Mitigation Economic Analysis Develop New Guidelines
17 New FLO-2D Model TETRA TECH ASFPM May foot Grid Size 165,214 Elements Based on LiDAR mapping from City
18 Manning s n roughness Overbank Manning s n-values. Land Use n-value Urban/Structures 0.04 Roads/Streets 0.02 Mine Tailing 0.40 Grassland/Ski Runs 0.20 Light Forest 0.30 Medium Forest 0.35 Dense Forest 0.40
19 Hydrologic Soil Group Infiltration Horton's infiltration parameters. Initial Rate (in./hour) Final Rate (in./hour) Decay Coefficient (1/second) A B C D
20 Rainfall Depth (in.) Colorado Unit Hydrograph Procedure (CHUP) NOAA Atlas 14 Recurrence Interval (years) Rainfall (in.) Rainfall Year 5-Year 10-Year 25-Year 50-Year 100-Year Time (hours)
21 Flow (cfs) TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Concentration by vol. Water and Sediment Hydrograph Time (hrs) Flow Bulked Flow Sed. Conc
22 Model Output
23 Mapping
24 Economic Costs TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Location Mud Depth Days of cleanup Cost Streets >$300,000 Sewer Lines >$380,000 Residential 6 11 >$800,000 Hotel 3 50 >$4.5M Commercial 3 3 $165,000
25 Possible Changes to Regulations Adjust zoning areas 25-year (45% concentration) 100-year (20% concentration) Depth increase up to 0.5 feet On ground previously inundated Make reasonable effort to not increase. No depth increase on land not inundated under existing conditions
26 Current Study TETRA TECH ASFPM May 2017 Model will be available to: Developers Engineers Substantial decrease in analysis cost Easier for City to review City to keep track of model changes
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Chapter 7 Mudflow Analysis 7.0 Introduction This chapter provides information on the potential and magnitude of mud floods and mudflows that may develop in Aspen due to rainfall events, snowmelt, or rain
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