Flood Event Analysis to Estimate the Avoided Damages Due to Flood Improvement Projects & Voluntary Buyout Program
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1 Flood Event Analysis to Estimate the Avoided Damages Due to Flood Improvement Projects & Voluntary Buyout Program Ataul Hannan, P.E., CFM Planning Division Director Harris County Flood Control District ASFPM 2016 Annual Conference Grand Rapids, MI, June 19-24, 2016
2 Overview Harris County Estimating Avoided Losses 2015 Rain Events Due to Buyouts Results Due to Projects Results 2016 Tax Day Rain Events
3 Harris County
4 Harris County Terrain
5 The Flood Control District Harris County Open Channel Network 2,500 Miles of Bayous and Creeks Area = 1,756 Square Miles ± 1,500 Channels ± 2,500 Miles of Channels Population = 5 Million (County) 2.7 Million (Houston)
6 Floodplain Map
7 Harris County Flood Control District A special purpose district created in 1937 by the Texas legislature in response to floods that devastated the Houston-area in 1929 and 1935 Serves as a local partner to leverage federal tax dollars for flood damage reduction Harris County where we are Flood Control what we do District who we are Harris County Commissioners Court serves as our board of directors or governing body
8 OUR MISSION Provide flood damage reduction projects that work, with appropriate regard for community and natural values.
9 Flood Damage Reduction Tools Widen and deepen bayous and creeks Flood Damage Reduction Tools Relocate residents out of the floodplain Excavate large stormwater detention basins
10 Rain Events of PM 10 PM
11 May 2015 Rainfall Ten Wettest Months in Texas History (1895-Present) May 2015 June 2004 May 1914 September 1936 May 1929 May 1935 September 1974 October 1919 April 1957 November Rainfall (in) May 2015 wettest month ever since Surpassed previous record by 2.27 inches! May 2015 rainfall = 35 trillion gallons across TX!
12 Rainfall Heat Maps
13 White Oak Bayou Memorial Day Event I-45 & N. Main Heights Blvd
14 Property Damage
15 Rainfall Heat Maps
16 Concentrated House Flooding Areas Total flooded homes likely between 3000 and 6000
17 Losses Avoided Due to Buyouts
18
19 Voluntary Buyouts Millions spent on voluntary buyouts $207M for over 2,000 structures via FEMA grants 75% Federal Share More than 900 other properties purchased with District funds
20 Data and Tools Utilized Most Up-To Date HEC-RAS Models (FEMA Effective or newer) Structural Inventory Database Stream Gage Network (HCFCD Flood Warning System)
21 Structural Inventory Database Structures inside the 0.2% (500-year) floodplain for studied streams in the County Data is stored in a shapefile FF Elev. River Station WSELs Economic Damage Estimate Buyout Status
22 Stream Gage Network 133 Gages along HC creeks, bayous and tributaries Sensors transmit rainfall depths and water levels in real time Data publicly available ww.harriscountyfws.org
23 GIS Data
24 Event WSEL Profiles
25 Buyout Avoided Damages Profile
26 Avoided Damages Due to Buyouts Memorial Day 2015 Flood Event
27 Result Highlights
28 Flood Reduction Projects
29 Rainfall Heat Maps
30 Sims Bayou Project 19.3 miles of Channel Improvement 3 Regional Detention Basin 22 Bridge Replacement Federal Cost to Date $263M HCFCD Cost to Date $129M
31 Sims Bayou Project
32 White Oak Bayou Project 15.3 miles of Channel Improvement 4 Regional Detention Basin 12 miles of park/trail Replacement Federal Cost to Date $70M HCFCD Cost to Date $54M
33 White Oak Bayou Project Jones Rd Fairbanks-N. Houston W. Little York Hollister Rd.
34 Project Brays 21.2 miles of Channel Improvement 4 Regional Detention Basin 30 Bridge Replacement Federal Cost to Date $167M HCFCD Cost to Date $141M
35 Eldridge Project Brays Mike Driscoll Park/ Old Westheimer Arthur Storey Park Willow Waterhole
36 Project Brays
37 Over 11 Astrodomes of New Detention New Channel Conveyance Longer than Loop 610
38 State Hwy 288 Brays Bayou Channels Holcombe Chimney Rock South Rice
39 Brays Bayou Memorial Day Event Eldridge looking east Arthur Storey Park looking south Mike Driscoll Park/ Old Westheimer looking north
40 Losses Avoided Due to Projects
41 Available Data Gage Rainfall (HCFWS) Stream Water Surface Elevations Surveyed High Water Marks FEMA Effective Models and Profiles Updated Models and Profiles foot LiDAR Building Footprints with FF Elev. Rainfall Heat Maps
42 Modeling Method I Approximate Method Gaged Floodplain VS Effective Combination Floodplain Constructed components of Project are indirectly included in the analysis for the Gaged Floodplain
43 Modeling Method II HWM Floodplain VS Modeled Event Floodplain Used over 40 surveyed HWM HWM Floodplain was field-verified May 25th Rainfall was modeled in HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS using effective models to estimate potential flood damage pre-project Brays
44 Gage Rainfall
45 Radar Rainfall NEXRAD Digital Precipitation Array (DPA) One-hour increments May 25 11:00 PM to May 26 2:00 PM Standard reflectivity-rainfall relationship 1.4 Z = 300R radar Calibration of radar data based on trend between radar reflectivity values and hourly rainfall totals at each gauge 1.3 Z = 249R radar
46 Radar Rainfall
47 Method II Stream Profiles
48 Method I Results
49 Method II Results
50 Sims Bayou Results
51 White Oak Bayou Results
52 White Oak Bayou Results
53 Avoided Damages Due to Projects May 25 October 25 October 31 Brays Bayou 7, Sims Bayou 1, ,700 White Oak Bayou 1,
54 April Radar 1 st Round 7 pm to 1 am 11 pm 2 nd Round 1 am to 8 am 3 am
55 Highest Rainfall Measured 5 min 1.0 Cypress Crk at SH min 2.2 Greens Bayou at North Belt 30 min 3.6 Cypress Crk at SH hour 4.7 Greens Bayou at Knobcrest 2 hour 7.3 Langham Crk at Longenbaugh 3 hour 8.3 Little Mound Crk at Mathis Rd 6 hour 13.9 Little Mound Crk at Mathis Rd 12 hour 16.7 Little Mound Crk at Mathis Rd 24 hour 17.4 Little Mound Crk at Mathis Rd 23.5 in 14.5 hours in Pattison, Waller County
56 Rainfall Comparison Recent Flood Events Date 1-hr 3-hr 6-hr 12-hr 24-hr 6/8/01 (Allison) /18/ /26/15 (Memorial Day) /18/16 (Tax Day)
57 3 Largest Rainfalls in 37 Years July 1979 (TS Claudette): 43.0 inches (24-hrs) US 24-hr rainfall record Alvin (Brazoria County) June 2001 (TS Allison): 28.5 inches (12-hrs) Greens Bayou (NE Harris County) Tax Day 2016: 23.5 inches (12-hrs) S Waller County Harris County PMP vs. Historic Events Rainfall Duration hr N/A 74% 61% hr 91% N/A N/A
58 12 Hr Peak Rainfall Isohyetals, Affected Areas
59 12 Hour Peak Rainfall Frequency
60 Cypress Creek Record flood levels set at six bridges. 11 bridges closed; 3 open between I-45 & US 290 Barker Cypress Huffmeister Grant Champions Forest
61 Preliminary House Flooding Locations ~60% flooded structures within 1% floodplain
62 FEMA Partnered Home Buyouts That Would Have Flooded 505 Greens Bayou 400 White Oak Bayou 220 Cypress Creek 180 San Jacinto River 150 Halls Bayou 35 Brays Bayou 10 Other Watersheds ~ 1,500 ~2,830 home buyouts in these watersheds since 1989
63
64
65 DRAFT EDIT
66 DRAFT EDIT
67 QUESTIONS???? Reduce the risk and rediscover the beauty
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