TRB First International Conference on Surface Transportation Resilience
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1 TRB First International Conference on Surface Transportation Resilience Applying the Sea-Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool to Enhance the Resilience of Long-Range Transportation Plans: Lessons Learned from Two Florida MPOs September 18, 2015 Josh DeFlorio, Cambridge Systematics Allison Yeh, Hillsborough County MPO James Cromar, Broward MPO With contributions from Crystal Goodison, UFL GeoPlan Center & Maria Cahill, Florida DOT
2 Introduction Florida is on the front lines of sea level rise and coastal inundation exposure Nation s second-most extensive coastline Many highly developed coastal areas Low-lying already subject to recurring tidal flooding UFL GeoPlan Center developed the Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool Hillsborough County MPO and Broward MPO both applied the tool in conducting FHWA Climate Resilience Pilots 2
3 Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool Planning level geographic information systems (GIS) tool to assess Florida transportation infrastructure potentially at-risk to projected sea level rise. Developed by the University of Florida GeoPlan Center for the Florida Department of Transportation Follows U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) SLR methods Uses NOAA tide gauge data (sea level trends and tidal datums) Maps SLR inundation regionally and statewide in Florida from ; at USACE High, Intermediate, and Low projections; using multiple tidal datums; accounts for hydrologic connectivity.
4 Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool: Components Map Viewer Visualize areas of inundation and affected infrastructure Low technical expertise needed, no GIS software needed GIS Data Layers SLR Inundation Surfaces & Affected Infrastructure layers GIS Software and intermediate GIS expertise needed SLR Inundation Surface Calculator Create custom inundation layers Intermediate/ Advanced technical/ GIS expertise needed All components available on project website:
5 Hillsborough County MPO: Vulnerability Assessment & Adaptation Pilot Project Allison G. Yeh, AICP, LEED GA Hillsborough County MPO 5
6 Hillsborough County, Florida 158 miles of coastline 3 rd Largest Population in Florida (1.2 Million) 22% of the population lives in a flood prone area Economic Hub of Tampa Bay Metropolitan Region Largest seaport in Florida Home to US Central Command & Special Operations Command Center Tampa General Regional Burn Center
7 Evaluation Process Economic Analysis Econometric Modeling (REMI) Analysis Seek feedback LMS Group Emergency Mgt. FDOT Port Tampa Bay Aviation Authority Mapping (ArcGIS) Modeling (TBRPM) Data Collection SLR Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool Storm Surge - Slosh Flooding (FEMA) 7
8 Risk Scenario» Simulated Category 3 storm surge Same category, trajectory as 1921 Tarpon Springs High tide Addition of sea level rise from Sketch Planning Tool (2040)
9 Assess Potential Network Disruption Impacts» Simulation of phased recovery (post-storm surge)» Simulate travel disruption using TBRPM One typical day» Derive daily change in Hours of delay Miles travelled Trips (lost)» Estimate range of potential disruption for each scenario
10 Vulnerability Reduction Investment Assumed in 2040 Plan Current Adopted Economic losses cut in half
11 2040 Plan Capacity Projects & simulated CAT 3 storm surge Memorial Hwy Gandy Connector US 41 Overpass/ Interchange at CSX/ Causeway Streetcar Modernization & Extension
12 Memorial Highway Project Cost Feasibility based on FDOT Strategic Intermodal System (SIS) 2040 Plan: o Part of SR 60/I-275 interchange reconstruction o $193 M cost (in YOE) Vulnerable area: mi. based on Cat 1-Cat 3 storm surge Replacement cost: $100 M + Protection cost: $ 4.2 M Potential to incorporate into SIS project Inundation with Cat 3 Surge Memorial Highway 158,000 ADT 12
13 Climate Adaptation Stakeholder Meeting January 29, 2015
14 14
15 Addressing Climate Issues Regionally Tampa Bay Climate Science Advisory Panel (CSAP) Unified Projection of Sea-Level Rise in Tampa Bay Region TBRPC ONE BAY Resilient Communities Pinellas County Climate Team Hillsborough County EPC Workgroup Manatee County Green Team Pasco County City of Clearwater DOE Pilot Project
16 South Florida Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Pilot Project Presented to: First International Conference on Surface Transportation System Resilience to Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events September 18, 2015 Presented by: James Cromar Director of Planning Broward Metropolitan Planning Organization
17 Regional Transportation Network Palm Beach County Broward County Miami-Dade County Monroe County
18 Data Collection Name/Type Data Collected Accuracy Source LiDAR Derived Elevation Contours LiDAR Derived and DEM Elevation Contours and DEM FDOT UFL GeoPlan Tool NED Transportation Network SLR Scenarios based FEMA on NOAA Tidal Surface information DEM FLiDAR Mosiac DEM FLiDAR Mosaic DEM's Inundation Surfaces Elevation Contours FDEM Affected Infrastructure NED 1/9th Arc Second Data Transportation Data Flood Zone Maps for Miami Dade and Monroe Official & Preliminary Flood Zone 1ft, 2ft, 3ft SLR for Miami Dade, Maps for Broward County Broward, Monroe County's Official & Preliminary Flood Zone Maps for Palm Beach County 5 meter mosaic for the 5 meter mosaic for the entire Florida state entire Florida state 10 ft DEM's available for all 4 counties 2 ft Contours available for all 4 counties 1/9 arc second available for Miami Dade, Broward, Palm Beach and Monroe County Coast FGDL FGDL SFWMD UFL GeoPlan Website FGDL UFL GeoPlan Website USGS FDOT GIS FEMA NFHL Broward County Broward County GIS GIS Palm Beach County & FEMA
19 Network Irregularities
20 FEMA Data Example False inundation examples (road on embankment)
21 Original FEMA Dataset
22 After Elevation Clean Up Tool Run
23 After Elevation Clean Up Tool Run and Bridge Elevation Adjustments
24 Sea level rise (SLR) Climate Stressors Storm surge and related inundation Heavy precipitation and related flooding (including impacts from SLR groundwater interactions)
25 Integrating Data into Decision Making Transportation Planning and Prioritization Rehabilitation or Reconstruction of Existing Facility in High Risk Areas New Facility on New ROW in High Risk Areas Operations Maintenance adapting-to-climate-change
26 Lessons Learned / Conclusions Don t delay decisions by trying to develop perfect data Data needs to be good enough to inform decisions Taking action in Broward Determine potential roadway impacts in vulnerable areas Propose actions to reduce vulnerability Prioritize the funding Implement projects
27 Thank You! Josh DeFlorio Cambridge Systematics Allison Yeh Hillsborough County MPO Crystal Goodison GeoPlan Center, UFL Maria Cahill Florida DOT James Cromar Broward MPO 27
28 Links Sea Level Scenario Sketch Planning Tool Hillsborough County MPO Pilot Broward MPO Pilot 28
Crystal Goodison & Alexis Thomas University of Florida GeoPlan Center
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