Extending the use of Flood Modeller Pro towards operational forecasting with Delft-FEWS

Transcription

1 Extending the use of Flood Modeller Pro towards operational forecasting with Delft-FEWS Simone van Schijndel, Department Head Operational Water Management and Early Warning

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3 The world around us Von Neumann built the first real computer for meteorological computations...and it is going faster and faster! 26th

4 Prevention and adaptation 26th

5 New data sources and techniques Each day the UK Met Office processes and stores 106 million observations, completes 20 quadrillion (10 15 ) calculations, archives 10 Tera (10 12 ) bytes of model data and produces 4 million forecasts per day Courtesy: Paul Davies, UK Met Office every known hurricane and tropical storm since 1851, developed by IDVSolutions. Data from NOAA, USA 26th

6 Accountability becomes increasingly important 26th

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8 import This is where Delft-FEWS comes in... Delft-FEWS basic concept data (feeds) Delft-FEWS import validation transformation / interpolation data hierarchy general adapter export / report administration (data, forecasts) viewing (data, forecasts) archiving PI models export & dessimination

9 Delft-FEWS open data handling platform Data Hydraulic Models Forecasts & warnings

10 Technical Coupling (simple version) Forecasting Shell(s) Master Controller Central database FSS

11 Technical Coupling (complex version) server data 2 forecasting shell(s) 8 7 fews model 6 FSS 1. User logs in and start model/forecast run 2. Task is dispatched to FSS 3. FSS synchronises all data (gets up to date with central database) 4. FEWS exports input data for model (PI-XML) 5. Model adapter converts to native input 6. Model executes and produces native output 7. Model adapter converts native output to PI-XML 8. FEWS imports output data from the model 9. FSS synchronises new data to central database 10. Clients receives latest (model) data client(s) messages/tasks data master controller central database operator client(s) MC CDB 10 OC 1

12 Exchange of data: published interface Delft-FEWS published interface General Adapter input data (pi xml) output data (pi xml) Model Adapter model input data Model model output data

13 Delft-FEWS philosophy Resilient system for operational forecasting Platform for operational research, independent of operating system Fully configurable by (super)users and very scalable Short cycle from research to operations Philosophy Extension done in co-operation between Deltares & client (& third parties) Available to FEWS available to the FEWS community Free and open software Joint development approach FEWS User Community to share developments Bringing together all stakeholders in the forecasting process

14 >20 years of Delft-FEWS Applications And...not to forget Water quality Ground water Storm surge Data science Flood Forecasting Systems Running models Integration of (spatial) data Ensembles etc Water Information Systems Data validation Data analysis Long records of data Model Management platform Off-line scenario analysis Complex modelling systems

15 Delft-FEWS worldwide

16 Delft-FEWS and Flood Modeller Pro Used throughout England and Wales (on behalf of Natural Resources Wales) 200+ ISIS 1D hydrodynamic models 30+ ISIS KW routing models

17 Delft-FEWS and Flood Modeller Pro Used throughout Scotland 60+ ISIS 1D hydrodynamic models Used by the Mekong River Commission to model Mekong delta from Kratie to the tidal boundary in Vietnam Timeseries to control structures in the delta area (sluices and rubber dams)

18 Examples of collaboration at a national level Bringing together hydrologists and meteorologists (and other stakeholders) National Flood Forecasting System in the UK Fluvial and coastal forecasting, development Flood Forecasting Centre, implementation of the G2G model in a FEWS environment National Weather Service, Community Hydrological Prediction System (CHPS) in the USA Independent RFC s, but centralized tool development, migration from current NWSRFS to Delft-FEWS HyFS, a national flow forecasting system for Australia From a distributed approach to a more centralised approach, with an outlook towards storm surge forecasting

19 National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) Environment Agency for England & Wales Flood warning responsibility rivers coasts 1.6 million people at risk Wide variety of catchments Flooding happens regularly Implementation Harmonisation of 8 regions with 8 different systems & procedures Complex hydrological methods and procedures > 20 different model types > 2000 forecasting locations

20 Community Hydrological Prediction System The Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) will enable NOAA s water research, development enterprise and operational service delivery infrastructure to be integrated and leveraged with other federal water agency activities, academia, and the private sector greater ease in implementing new models greater collaboration with agency partners, universities, international community SNOW model displays CHPS deployed across all 13 River Forecast Centres (projected) Migrated from current NWSRFS with > calibrated models

21 Hydrological Forecasting System in Australia National Flood Forecasting system for the Bureau of Meteorology Migration of existing systems (Peak-Heights, URBS) Use of new modelling techniques Challenge: one system for 7 regions Challenge: add new research products Challenge: migrate towards a centralised approach

22 Outlook towards the future - technology Delft-FEWS2020 vision in preparation effective use of the cloud and define added value further simplification of the use of the software expanding archiving capabilities building upon our open archive dealing with large amounts of data further develop webservices and web-applications, dashboard developments

23 Outlook towards the future - scientific Flood Modeller Pro Finish 2D adaptor Make 1D adaptor 64-bit compatible Making use of alternative data sources Satellite data Social media data From threshold based information to impact based information Data to information to actionable steps = crucial Couple models for critical infrastructure Couple fast 2D models to Delft-FEWS to be able to model flood extent real time

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