SOFS. BLUElink Status, challenges and future. Craig, Brassington, Schiller, Pugh, Sandery, Oke and Symonds

Transcription

1 SOFS BLUElink Status, challenges and future Craig, Brassington, Schiller, Pugh, Sandery, Oke and Symonds

2 Overview BLUElink capability summary (abstract taken as read) Linking BLUElink to the coasts Linking the coasts to BLUElink BLUElink future Predictability and performance Observational requirements

3 BLUElink Principal investigators Dr Gary Brassington, g.brassington@bom.gov.au Dr Peter Craig, peter.craig@csiro.au Ms Clare Richards, Project Manager LCDR Joanne Haynes, RAN/METOC CSIRO team Bureau team Peter Oke Data assimilation Paul Sandery Ocean modeller Andreas Schiller Ocean Modeller Tim Pugh IT lead David Griffin Oceanographer Justin Freeman IT model Russell Fiedler IT model Andy Taylor Analyst Jim Mansbridge IT general Pavel Sakov Data assimilation Uwe Rosebrock IT GUI Prasanth Divakaran Oceanographer Graeme Symonds Oceanographer In kind OEB, NMOC, Ocean Services, Infrastructure

4 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction Ocean Forecast Australia Model (OFAM) OFAM, OFAM2 and OFAM3 (near-global ) Modular ocean model version 4 SPINUP integration (ERA-40, ERA-interim) BLUElink Ocean Data Assimilation System (BODAS) BODAS, BODAS2 and BODAS3 Ensemble Optimal Interpolation (Stationary) Multi-variate covariances Ensemble seasonal anomalies BLUElink ReANalysis (BRAN) BRAN, BRAN2, BRAN2.1, BRAN2.2 Ocean Model, Analysis and Prediction System (OceanMAPS) OceanMAPS, OceanMAPSv2 4-cycle time-lagged ensemble ACCESS-G forcing

5 BLUElink status/capability

6 Real-time system

7 Real-time system

8 BLUElink status/capability Regional and coupled ocean prediction Relocatable Ocean Atmosphere Model (ROAM) SHOC/RAMS uncoupled (plus DA) Forecaster relocatable modelling tool Coupled Limited Area Model (MOM4/OASIS/UM) Coupled ACCESS-TC/OASIS/OFAM-R Coupled ACCESS-R/OASIS/OFAM-R Regional, nested, downscaled OFAM/BODAS OFAM-R (Australia) OFAM-HR (Tasman Sea, 2km)

9 BLUElink status/capability Figure 3 An example of SST from (a) 6-d composite AVHRR, (b) daily mean BRAN (version 2p1), (d) daily mean SHOC, and (e) daily mean SHOC plus data assimilation. The model fields are valid 5 days after initialisation. The arrow in panel (a) shows the daily mean wind stress along with the magnitude. The region of the SHOC domain is shown in panel (c) and the time series of zonal (bold) and meridional (thin) wind stress is plotted in panel (f). The arrows in panels (b, d, and e) show the daily mean surface velocities (from Oke et al. 2009).

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11 Example of coastal upwelling event impacting heat and moisture flux to atmosphere and local total cloud

12 OFAM-HR (Tasman Sea) MOM4p1 780x860x80 cells with degree (~2.75 km) degree horizontal resolution Tasman Sea limited area domain E,165.95E 44.95S,23.05S parallel spin-up runs nested inside SPINUPp6.8 with and without tides ERA-interim, NWP, CLAM surface fluxes

13 BLUElink status/capability Littoral zone modelling Morphodynamic Environmental Assessment System (MorphEAS) Xbeach X-band radar Lasar airborne depth soundings

14 Littoral zone forecasting in Bluelink Observations Modelling Software Bluelink 1 Bluelink 2 Bluelink 3 Future Long term (months) waves, morphology (radar, video) and bathy surveys. No nearshore observations No nearshore modeling/forecasting ROAM no surf zone dynamics Short term (weeks) waves and currents Limited bathymetry Waves and currents Offshore forcing single wave height, period and direction input by user. LOMS waves, currents, Input bathymetry (GA250m) Waves, currents and morphology Offshore forcing data feeds from BoM (AUSWAVE) MorphEAS waves, currents, changing bathymetry MorphEAS run under ROAM environment Input Bathymetry GA250m Long term (monthsyears) waves, currents, morphology (radar, video) and bathy surveys. Satellite remote sensing high res multispectral sensors Data assimilating model Waves, currents and morphology Offshore forcing from high resolution WW3 nested inside AUSWAVE. MorphEAS+ waves, currents, changing bathymetry Satellite derived bathymetry Web interface and improved visualisation

15 BLUElink status/capability XBeach (Deltares, Netherlands) Incident wave forcing Spatial and temporal variability Bound long wave forced sea level response to wave groupiness Primitive equation hydrodynamic model Wave groups Surf zone Sediment transport model

16 BLUElink future BLUElink-3 (mid-2011-mid-2014) BRAN3 OceanMAPS3 ROAM enhanced Coupled ACCESS-R OFAM-HR (Tasman) MorphEAS Beyond BLUElink-3 Preliminary stage Migrating toward larger maintenance component Options paper written potential directions Global (sea-ice, tides, coupled) Regional (ensembles, EnKF, coupled, downscaled) Littoral (observations, modelling, data assimilation)

17 Linking BLUElink to the coasts Coastal and shelf scale modelling Initial conditions observations/data assimilation/initialisation Boundary conditions atmospheric/oceanic/estuarine/coupled Modelling physics/parameterisation/bgc/sedimentation Analyses reanalyses/hindcasts/nowcasts Forecasts short-medium/intra-seasonal/seasonal/climate Other linkages Wave-ocean coupling Atmosphere-ocean coupling

18 Linking BLUElink to the coasts Coastal and shelf scale modelling Initial conditions observations/data assimilation/initialisation Boundary conditions atmospheric/oceanic/estuarine/coupled Modelling physics/parameterisation/bgc/sedimentation Analyses reanalyses/hindcasts/nowcasts Forecasts short-medium/intra-seasonal/seasonal/climate

19 Linking BLUElink to the coasts Coastal and shelf scale modelling Initial conditions observations/data assimilation/initialisation Boundary conditions atmospheric/oceanic/estuarine/coupled Modelling physics/parameterisation/bgc/sedimentation Analyses reanalyses/hindcasts/nowcasts Forecasts short-medium/intra-seasonal/seasonal/climate Linkages Collaboration (two-way) Knowledge transfers (one-way either direction) Products (one-way either direction)

20 Linking BLUElink to the coasts Coastal and shelf scale modelling Observations satellite altimetry, satellite SST, Real-time QC Data assimilation BODAS, EnOI (3D/4D), DnKF, EnKF Initialisation Adaptive nonlinear restoring, Bred vectors Atmospheric BC ERA-40, ERA-interim, ACCESS-G, ACCESS-R Oceanic BC SHOC, MOM4 (non-tidal and tidal) Coupled BC MOM4-OASIS-ACCESS Physics SHOC, MOM4 Parameterisation Pen. shortwave, Mixed layers (Chen, KPP, K- eps), BGC (next talk) Sedimentation beach morphology Reanalyses BRAN versions 1, 2 and 3 Hindcasts - OceanMAPS Nowcasts RAMSSA/GAMSSA/OceanMAPS/ROAM Short-medium OceanMAPS/ROAM Climate downscaling climate to the boundary current/coast

21 Linking BLUElink to the coasts Coastal and shelf scale modelling Observations satellite altimetry, satellite SST, Real-time QC Data assimilation BODAS, EnOI (3D/4D), DnKF, EnKF Initialisation Adaptive nonlinear restoring, Bred vectors Atmospheric BC ERA-40, ERA-interim, ACCESS-G, ACCESS-R Oceanic BC SHOC, MOM4 (non-tidal and tidal) Coupled BC MOM4-OASIS-ACCESS Physics SHOC, MOM4 Parameterisation Pen. shortwave, Mixed layers (Chen, KPP, K- eps), BGC (next talk) Sedimentation beach morphology Reanalyses BRAN versions 1, 2 and 3, BRAN4(coastal) (IMOS?) Hindcasts - OceanMAPS Nowcasts RAMSSA/GAMSSA/OceanMAPS/ROAM Short-medium OceanMAPS/ROAM Climate downscaling climate to the boundary current/coast

22 Linking the coasts to BLUElink Coastal and shelf scale modelling Observations satellite Cal/Val, in situ observations, QC, obs error Data assimilation/initialisation ereefs, other Atmospheric BC Verification/Validation/Reanalysis(coupled) Oceanic BC biases, two-way nesting Coupled BC coupled wave, coupled sea-ice Physics Common codes or multi-code laboratories Parameterisation Direct numerical simulation validation BGC (next talk) Sedimentation Parameterisations/forcing models Reanalyses Coastal evaluation/optimisation/assimilation Hindcasts Coastal evaluation/optimisation Nowcasts OceanCurrents Short-medium Coastal evaluation/optimisation/monitoring/ product development/user requirements Climate collaboration with CoE/IMOS (?)

23 Real-time system

24 Real-time system

25 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction what is skilful? Wind-driven and Geostrophic turbulence Eddies and fronts Boundary currents Surface layer state (GODAE profile slide) Surface layer currents (Geostrophic+Ageostrophic) Ekman transport First mode coastal trapped waves Coastal upwelling

26 BLUElink status/capability Figure 1 Monthly mean sea-level from BRAN (version 2p2), with surface drifter velocities and trajectories overlaid. (adapted from Oke et al., 2009)

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28 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction what is the predictability? OceanMAPS and OceanMAPSv2

29 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction what is the predictability? OceanMAPSv2.1

30 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction what is the predictability? OceanMAPSv2.1

31 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction what is the predictability? Figure 2: Hindcasts of sea level anomaly in the Tasman Sea for the 14th February 2011 from four independent cycles each with different hindcast periods: (a) 72 hr, (b) 48 hr, (c) 24 hr and (d) 0hr (best estimate). (adapted from Brassington et al., 2012). Note hindcast period is the time since the last assimilation and initialisation step.

32 Observational requirements - background Plenary paper OceanObs09 short-term forecasts and observational requirements GODAE intercomparisons GOVST task team observing system evaluation GOVST task team intercomparisons and validation JCOMM Observation Coordination Group JCOMM ET-OOFS WMO RRR Schiller talk observation system experiments

33 Observational requirements GODAE-class No redundant observations GODAE systems Gains up to 4 altimeters Gains multi-sensor SST in situ network undersample the mesoscale Observational requirements are system dependent GODAE-class systems continue to optimise performance Similar performance amongst systems (new intercomparison) Dependent on remote sensing Cal/Val of remote sensing critical Further optimisations/gains DA (4DOI, EnKF, Initialisation) Obs (Operationalisation, Wide-swath altimetry, Latency) Efficient implementation (Obs, System changes)

34 Observational requirements - background Two altimeters in delayed mode (left ) and in real time (right) 4 altimeters in real time (nowcasting) are needed to achieve a similar accuracy as 2 altimeters in delayed mode (hindcasting) (Pascual et al., 2009). Benkiran et al (2009) : 7 day forecasting with two altimeters = nowcasting with one altimeter.

35 Observational requirements - performance Distribution of forecast quality NWP surface fluxes, model error growth Ocean predictability Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation Initialisation, Observation timeliness

36 Observational requirements - performance Distribution of forecast quality NWP surface fluxes, model error growth Ocean predictability Observation coverage, Observation error, Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation Initialisation, Observation timeliness

37 Observational requirements criteria reanalysis Temporal/Spatial coverage - Homogeneous (or optimised/adaptive) Error estimation Quality control Meta-data standards (e.g., GHRSST, RADS, Argo)

38 Observational requirements criteria forecast Temporal/Spatial coverage - Homogeneous (or optimised/adaptive) Minimise latency Error estimation Quality control (real-time) Robust / operational Meta-data standards (e.g., GHRSST, RADS, Argo) Open data access policies

39 Observational requirements criteria forecast Implementation steps (>6 months) Data evaluation (?) Data implementation (3 months) Quality control (1 month) Parallel research hindcast trials (1 month) Operational trial (1 month) Can IMOS help us minimise any of these?

40 Observation issues - altimetry Issues Maintenance of altimetry coverage Multiple new platforms Rapid introduction of new products streams Coastal altimetry (whole of Australia evaluation) New satellite data streams AltiKa/Saral - delayed launch, data quality? New platform HY2(A-D) - First launch date, under evaluation - data quality? - Agreements in place Jason3, Sentinel3 launch 2013 SWOT 2020?

41 Observation issues - SST Issues Maintenance of microwave + AVHRR Geostationary high priority for coastal zone Maintenance of Cal/Val Optimisation of quality control

42 Observation issues HF radar Issues Delayed mode products for DA experiments Review of data products standard format Observation error distribution Representation errors Near real-time QC, feasibility

43 Observation issues - Gliders Issues International coordinated DAC/GDAC for glider data Error estimation Quality control (real-time)

44 Observational requirements - littoral High resolution bathymetry LADS Survey Satellite (Multispectral sensors) Directional wave spectra observed and modelled Sea level, winds, coastal currents

45 Observational Issues - adaptive How can we promote/support capacity? Motivation Marine accident and emergency: e.g., Montara Oil Spill Search and rescue Operational oceanography provides a basic service based on GOOS Need to optimise with additional in situ observations

46 Summary BLUElink Development of prediction capability Modelling, Coupling, Data assimilation, Renalysis, Forecasting Large emphasis has been on bluewater ocean BLUElink and coastal community Multiple opportunities for collaboration Expertise in the community for Australia s vast coasts Multi-modelling is desirable within the R&D Need to improve interoperability between models (MARVL?) Promote improving BRAN/OceanMAPS in the coastal zone Improve initial/boundary conditions Coastal observation products (delayed and near real-time) Model evaluation, intercomparison Data assimilation BRAN-coastal => OceanMAPS-coastal

47 SOFS End

48 BLUElink status/capability Global/Regional ocean prediction what is observable (prognostic)? η sea level (non-tidal) Satellite altimetry Satellite SST (research topic) Tide gauges (reanalysis only) Pressure gauges (indirectly used) T Temperature Satellite SST Argo, CTD, XBT, GTS(other) Buoys, Hull contact sensors (indirectly used) S Salinity Satellite SSS (not yet used) Argo, CTD, GTS(other) Buoys (limited, not used) U Velocity HF radar (not yet used) Buoys (validation only) Current meters

49 BLUElink status/capability Global ocean prediction what is observable (forcing)? τ stress Scatterometry (indirect) Q Heat flux OceanSITES (validation/verification) E-P Evap-Precip Microwave (indirect) River discharge Climatology (poor for Australia) Discharge (State based) Sea-ice (not yet included)