Unusual cold in northern Asia from December 2012 to March 2013

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reference period 1961-1990. In December 2012, monthly temperature anomalies up to about -11 C were recorded in the southwest of Siberia and in Kazakhstan.

1 Unusual cold in northern Asia from December 2012 to March 2013 Anna Tadschikowa, Dr. Susanne Haeseler; updated: April 2013 Introduction The winter of 2012/2013 (December to February) as well as March 2013 were too cold in large parts of the northern half of Asia in comparison to the reference period In December 2012, monthly temperature anomalies up to about -11 C were recorded in the southwest of Siberia and in Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, daily minimum temperatures reached -40 to -46 C. According to media, nearly people in Russia were temporarily without water, heating and power due to frozen and burst pipes as a result of the cold. Several hundreds of people with frostbite were hospitalised. Just as in Russia, the people in Kazakhstan mainly in northern, eastern and central parts suffered from power outages and the breakdown of hot-water supply. Temperature anomalies of winter 2012/2013 In the northern half of Asia, the winter of 2012/2013 (December to February) was widespread too cold (Fig. 2). Some regions recorded winter temperatures up to 4 C below average. Besides parts of Siberia, also north-eastern Mongolia and north-eastern China were affected. Fig. 1: Position of the map section of Figures 2, 3 a-c, 5 and 8. 1

Fig. 2: Winter 2012/2013 mean air temperature anomalies (in C; with

3b), while in February eastern Siberia recorded the highest anomalies

2 Fig. 2: Winter 2012/2013 mean air temperature anomalies (in C; with respect to the reference period ) for the northern part of Asia. (Map section see Fig. 1) The high temperature anomalies primarily resulted from the abnormally cold December (Fig. 3a). January was colder than usual by only up to 2 C in large areas (Fig. 3b), while in February eastern Siberia recorded the highest anomalies with values up to -8 C (Fig. 3c). Fig. 3a: Air temperature anomalies 1990 mean) of December 2012 for the northern part of Asia. (Map section see Fig. 1) 2

Fig. 3b: Air temperature anomalies 1990 mean) of January 2013 for the northern

3c: Air temperature anomalies 1990 mean) of February 2013 for the northern part of

1) December 2012 temperatures were far below the average of the reference period

3 Fig. 3b: Air temperature anomalies 1990 mean) of January 2013 for the northern part of Asia. (Map section see Fig. 1) Fig. 3c: Air temperature anomalies 1990 mean) of February 2013 for the northern part of Asia. (Map section see Fig. 1) December 2012 temperatures were far below the average of the reference period mainly in south-western Siberia and large parts of Kazakhstan, regionally by about 11 C (Fig. 3a). Figure 4 shows a detailed map of the temperature anomalies of December 2012 for the Russian Federation, published in a report by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Russian weather service). 3

Fig. 4: Air temperature anomaly (in C) of December 2012 for Russia (reference period: 1961-1990).

pressure systems, reaching core pressures of partly more than 1055 hpa. Under the influence of high pressure, the cloudiness was low and the cooling at night across snow-covered areas was strong.

The Asian cold high-pressure system was displaced northwards in December 2012, regarding the monthly mean pressure with respect to the 1961-1990 average.

4 Fig. 4: Air temperature anomaly (in C) of December 2012 for Russia (reference period: ). [Source: Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring] Weather conditions of December 2012 across northern Asia The coldness of December was connected with strong high pressure systems, reaching core pressures of partly more than 1055 hpa. Under the influence of high pressure, the cloudiness was low and the cooling at night across snow-covered areas was strong. Partly, polar air was directed to the southwest of Siberia and to Kazakhstan with northerly to north-easterly winds being caused by high pressure centred in the area of the Ural Mountains. The Asian cold high-pressure system was displaced northwards in December 2012, regarding the monthly mean pressure with respect to the average. The centre of that high, now being located in the area of Kazakhstan / south-western Siberia, had values between 1035 and 1040 hpa, which exceeded the long-term average by about 4 to 12 hpa (Fig. 5). Fig. 5: Air pressure distribution of December Left: mean in hpa. Right: anomaly with respect to the reference period in hpa. (Map section see Fig. 1) 4

from north-eastern Kazakhstan (Fig. 6). Fig. 6: Map with position of the mentioned weather stations. Fig. 7 shows the temperature development in December 2012 at the mentioned weather stations.

5 Temperatures of December 2012 In the following, the air temperature development in December 2012 at four weather stations is regarded. At these stations, the monthly mean temperature anomalies differed to the longterm average by -8 to -11 C: Yeniseysk and Bogucany from the Russian region Krasnoyarsk as well as Irtyshsk and Kokpekty from north-eastern Kazakhstan (Fig. 6). Fig. 6: Map with position of the mentioned weather stations. Fig. 7 shows the temperature development in December 2012 at the mentioned weather stations. From the 11th to the 22nd, the temperature level was consistently below -20 C. Yeniseysk Bogucany Irtyshsk Kokpekty T ( C) 5,0 0,0-5,0-10,0-15,0-20,0-25,0-30,0-35,0-40,0-45, Dezember 2012 Fig. 7: Temperature development (3-hourly values in C) at four weather stations in Russia (Yeniseysk, Bogucany) and Kazakhstan (Kokpekty, Irtyshsk) in December Time in UTC. 5

The following absolute minimum temperatures of December 2012 were recorded at the stations: -39.6 C in Yeniseysk, -40.5 C in Bogucany, -42.2 C in Irtyshsk, -42.0 C in Kokpekty.

6 The following absolute minimum temperatures of December 2012 were recorded at the stations: C in Yeniseysk, C in Bogucany, C in Irtyshsk, C in Kokpekty. In Bogucany, the absolute maximum temperature of December was only C. However in East Siberia, where December was milder than usual, much lower temperatures were measured. In Oymyakon e.g., temperatures climbed only to a maximum of C and reached an absolute minimum of C. Temperature anomalies in March 2013 The temperature level in March 2013 was also considerable below the long-term average across large parts from northern Asia to Europe (Fig. 8). This month, mainly the northwestern part of the Russian Federation was affected by unusual cold, with highest anomalies between -6 and -9 C. Fig. 8: Air temperature anomalies 1990 mean) of March for the northern part of Asia. (Map section see Fig. 1) Possible relations between the cold and the Arctic sea ice cover Climate scientists discuss if the cold across Siberia and northern Europe is related to the decrease in Arctic ice cover. Since records began in 1979, the extent of the Arctic sea ice had reached a new minimum with only 3.41 Mio. km 2 in September Up to February 2013 nearly all of the Barents Sea remained ice free, and open water was present in the sea area of Svalbard. Studies about this relationship were published e.g. by Francis et al. (2009), Petoukhov/Semenov (2010), Jaiser et al. (2012), Liu et al. (2012), Oldenborgh et al. (2012) and Hopsch et al (2012). Results from correlations with climate data and simulations with general circulation models are, that a sea ice reduction across the Barents Sea and the Kara Sea (resp. the Siberian Sea) in autumn may cause a well above-normal air pressure across the Arctic Ocean from Greenland to West Siberia in winter being connected with very cold winters over parts of Eurasia. 6

7 Sources Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD): Data archive. Francis, J.A., Chan, W., Leathers, D.J.; Miller, J.R.; Veron, D.E. (2009): Winter Northern Hemisphere weather patterns remember summer Arctic sea-ice extent. Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L doi: /2009gl Hopsch, S., Cohen, J, and Dethloff, K. (2012): Analysis of a link between fall Artic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter. Tellus A 2012,64, 18624, Jaiser, R., Dethloff, K., Handorf D., Rinke, A., Cohen, J. (2012): Impact of sea ice cover changes on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus Series A, Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 64. doi: /tellusa.v64i Liu, J.P., Curry, J.A., Wang, H.J., Song, M.R., Horton R.M. (2012): Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109 (11): doi: /pnas van Oldenborgh G.J. et al. (2012): Weer en klimaat Nederland. Wat is de waarde von weerregels voor de winter? (4). Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (KNMI). Petoukhov, V., Semenov, V.A. (2010): A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. Journal of Geophysical Research, Atmospheres 115. doi: /2009jd Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet): Доклад об особенностях климата на территории Российской Федерации за 2012 год. [A report on climate features on the territory of the Russian Federation in 2012.] Moskau d20cb27d8&RgmDocID=a3f3ba59-0dc b75d-93b23b3bb307 Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring (Roshydromet): Новость: Ослабления морозов не ожидается. [Nachrichten: Schwächung des Frosts ist nicht zu erwarten.] 167d20cb27d8&RgmDocID=f1caaffa-8d5d-4bbe-aaff-6b93081f6fad ReliefWeb: Kazakhstan: Cold Wave Dec

Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA. J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder

Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, H. Wiggins and and J. Calder ARCUS State of the Arctic Meeting, March 16-19, 2010 Communicating Changes in Arctic