2016/17 Winter Monson in East Asia. Shingo ITO Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency
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1 2016/17 Winter Monson in East Asia Shingo ITO Tokyo Climate Center Japan Meteorological Agency 1
2 Outline 1. Overview of temperature anomalies in 2016/17 winter 2. Seasonal mean circulation characteristics 3. A cold surge in middle January and early February
3 Overview of Temperature Anomalies in 2016/17 Winter Warmer than normal based on CLIMAT report Normalized mean temperature anomalies averaged in 5 5 grid boxes for 2016/17 winter(djf). In most of East Asia, warmer or very warmer winter than normal. 3
4 Outline 1. Overview of temperature anomalies in 2016/17 winter 2. Seasonal mean circulation characteristics 3. A cold surge in middle January and early February
5 Ψ3 0 Characteristic Atmospheric Circulation (Dec. Feb. 2016/17) 500hPaheight SLP 850hPa temperatur e contour:values shading:anomaly Wave pattern frequency observed along polar front jet. Barotropic cyclonic circulation anomalies in Western Siberia. Warmer than normal conditions led weaker Siberian High. 5
6 Contribution of 850hPa Temperature Advection EfectofWindanomaly EfectofTemperatur e anomaly contour:temperature,shading:temperatureadvection,vector:wind Cyclonic circulation anomalies induced the warm air advection into Central to Eastern Siberia. Influence of cold air was weaker than normal. 6
7 Another Cause of Warm Winter ψ850/olranomaly EfectofWindanomaly 925hPa contour:stream functionanomalies shading:outgoinglongwave Radiation(OLR)anomalies Active convection in Southeast Asia. contour:normaltemperature, vector:windanomlies shading:temperatureadvection Induced cyclonic circulation anomalies led to warm southeasterly flow anomalies. Okinawa/Amami is the warmest December since
8 Schematic Figure Warm Winter - Wavepacketpropagationalongthe polarfrontjetbroughta barotropic cycloniccirculationanomalyin WesternSiberia. Thelow-levelanomalous southwesterlyflowinduced thewarm airadvectioninto CentraltoEasternSiberia. Thepolarfrontaljet Inflowofwarm air Thesubtropicaljet Inflowofwarm air Warm SST Thelow-levelcyclonic circulationanomaliesover SoutheastAsia wasinduced bytheactiveconvectionin thisarea. 8
9 Outline 1. Overview of temperature anomalies in 2016/17 winter 2. Seasonal mean circulation characteristics 3. A cold surge in middle January and early February
10 Cold Surge Events in middle Jan. and early Feb. Timeseriesoftemperatureanomalie s inareasofjapan,respectivel y Dec Jan Northern 2 Japan -2 Feb Eastern Japan 2-2 Western Japan 2-2 Okinawa 2 Amami -2 Seasonal mean temperature warmer than normal Several cold events. 10 Significant cold surge events in middle Jan., early Feb.
11 Cold Surge Events in middle Jan. and early Feb. 850hPatemperature 500hPaheight contour:value shading:anomaly Colder than normal in a wide range of East Asia Deep troughs were clearly seen associated with the blocking highs These troughs are considered to bring cold surges 11
12 Cold Surge Event : early February 500hPaheight Blocking high emerged around Bering Sea Moved westward Deep trough was formed associated with blocking high. Enhanced northerly flow Brought significant cold surge Formation of blocking high was contributed by tropical convection. SLP 12
13 The Effect of Convection in the Equatorial Western Pacific ψ850/olranomaly contour:stream functionanomaliesat850hpa shading:outgoinglongwaveradiation(olr)anomalies vector :waveactivityflux Active convection induced upper-level acticyclonic circulation. Wave packet propagation from Western Pacific to Bering Sea. The blocking high was formed and sustained likely in association with enhanced convective activity over equatorial western Pacific. 13
14 Schematic Schematic Figure HeavysnowfallofwestJapan Cold surge of Western Japan 3 Theblockinghighemerged duetothewavepackets,and movedwestward. 4 Thedeeptroughwas formedinassociation withtheblockinghigh. A Inflowofcoldair C A C 1 Thewavepackets propagatedfrom the west. 2 Thesubtropicaljet meanderednorthwarddue toactiveconvectionaround equatori alwesternpacific. 14
15 Thankyouforyourattention! 15
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