Aviation Weather For Pilots. Aviation Weather Decoded

Transcription

1 Aviation Weather For Pilots Aviation Weather Decoded Presented by Mike Cetinich

2 About Your Instructor n B.S. Meteorology San Jose State University n Flight Training n Career at Jeppesen (30+ years) Aviation Meteorologist Manager of Meteorology Programmer Product Manager n Weather Geek

3 About Today n Goal Help You Understand Aviation Weather Better n How Active Participation n Why Stay Safe & Alive n Weather Accounts for 15% of all GA accidents n 25% of all Weather Accidents are fatal (NASA study)

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7 Agenda n Decoding Aviation Weather Information Sources of Aviation Weather Weather Information and what it means n Weather Trivia Question & Break n Aviation Weather Resources n Weather Trivia Question & Break n Flight Scenario

8 Ground Rules n Get the Information You Want (Ask Questions) n 2 Breaks come and go as needed n Cell Phones Off Please n Chance to win Prizes Test Your Weather Trivia knowledge n Have Fun While Learning

9 World Area Forecast Centers n U.S. NWS Washington DC n U.K. Met Office Exeter, U.K. n Responsibility for providing worldwide weather information to aviation industry users, under agreement with ICAO. n Acquire and disseminate global observations & forecasts, and provide global numerical model output.

10 U.S. Weather n NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NWS 122 Weather Forecast Offices n Issues TAF s for airports in forecast area n Issues Weather Watches and Warnings n Operates NEXRAD radars in forecast area SPC Storm Prediction Center (Norman) n Issues Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watches n Issues Convective Outlooks & Mesoscale Discussions TPC Tropical Prediction Center (Miami) n Issues Tropical Storm/Hurricane bulletins for the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific n Also centers in Honolulu (Central Pacific Hurricane Center) and Guam (Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

11 U.S. Weather n NOAA AWC Aviation Weather Center (Kansas City) n Issues SIGMETs and AIRMETs n Issues Convective SIGMETs n Issues Area Forecasts Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (Washington) n Issues Volcanic Ash Advisories n 8 other centers around the globe NESDIS National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (Washington) n Operates and disseminates GOES (geostationary) and POES (polar orbiting) satellite imagery

12 n NOAA U.S. Weather Center Weather Service Units n NWS Meteorologist located within an ARTCC n Issues Center Weather Advisories (CWA) within the FIR n Issues Meteorological Impact Statements (MIS) within the FIR National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) n Ingests regional and worldwide climate data Surface obs, upper air obs, radiosonde balloons, satellites, aircraft, NEXRAD, ships, buoys etc n Runs worldwide and regional numerical weather prediction and climate models

13 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations ASOS: Automated Surface Observing System n Manual Augmentation n Completely Automated n Visibility n Clouds n Weather n Winds n Precipitation n SLP/Altimeter n Temp/Dew Point n Remarks

14 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations coded vs decoded METAR KAPA Z 29003KT 8SM FEW100 SCT140 BKN220 19/13 A3032 RMK AO2 SLP205 T = METAR: hourly observation for KAPA issued Wind: 290 at 3 knots Visibility: 8 miles Sky: 10000ft few, 14000ft scattered, 22000ft broken Temperature: 19 C (66 F) Dew point: 13 C (55 F) Altimeter: Remarks: automated station with precipitation discriminator, sea level pressure hpa, T =

15 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Station ID: KXYZ Day & Time: Z 01 = First day of current month 1153Z = 1153 UTC Report Type: AUTO = indicates completely automated observation COR = Corrected Observation Blank = Observer input is possible Wind: 17012G = wind direction of 170 deg (reference from true north) 12 = 12 kt sustained wind speed (2 minute average) G25 = gusting to 25 kts (highest gust last 10 minutes, must exceed 10 kts between lulls and peaks to be reported as a gust) 110V200 = wind direction variable between 110 and 220 deg (must exceed 60 deg to be reported as variable and speed exceed 6 kts)

16 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Visibility: 1/2SM Prevailing visibility reported in statute miles from sensor. Tower or Surface visibility can be reported in remarks section if different from prevailing visibility. Lowest report is M1/4SM. If Visibility is 1 SM or less, RVR is reported if available. If visibility is greater than 10SM, it is reported as 10SM.

17 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = RVR: R30L/3500V5000FT Runway 30L Visual Range 3500 ft variable to 5000 ft. Weather: TSSN Thunderstorm with moderate snow. Intensity Descriptor Precipitation Obscuration Other - Light MI Shallow DZ Drizzle BR Mist PO Dust/Sand Devils Moderate PR Partial RA Rain FG Fog SQ Squalls + Heavy BC Patches SN Snow FU Smoke FC Funnel Cloud VC Vicinity DR Drifting SG Snow Grains DU Dust +FC Tornado / Waterspout BL Blowing IC Ice Crystals SA Sand SS Sand Storm SH Showers PL Ice Pellets HZ Haze DS Dust Storm TS Thunderstorm PY Spray FZ Freezing GR Hail GS Snow Pellets UP Unknown Precipitation

18 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Cloud Layers: VV002 = Indefinite Ceiling, Vertical Visibility = 200 ft (AGL) SCT008 = Scattered clouds at 800 ft (AGL). SCT = 1/8 to 3/8 coverage BKN012 = Broken clouds at 1200 ft (AGL). BKN = 4/8 to 7/8 coverage OVC020CB = Overcast clouds including Cumulonimbus at 2000 ft (AGL) Designator Coverage Remarks CLR 0/8 No clouds below 12,000 ft. From Automated Observation SKC 0/8 No clouds observed by manual observer FEW 1/8 2/8 No Ceiling SCT 3/8 4/8 No Ceiling BKN 5/8 7/8 Ceiling OVC 8/8 Ceiling VV Obscured Indefinite Ceiling, Vertical Visibility CB TCU Cumulonimbus Clouds Towering Cumulus Note: No clouds from ASOS/AWOS systems are reported above FL120. Clouds above FL120 can be added by human observer.

19 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Temperature/Dew Point: M02/M04 Temperature = -2 deg C (M indicates temp below zero) Dew Point = -4 deg C MM indicates a missing temperature or dew point Altimeter: A2992 Altimeter setting of inches of mercury. Indicates Station altitude when altimeter is set to this setting and aircraft at station Remarks: A02 Indicates automated observation with the ability to detect precipitation types. A01 Indicates automated observation with no ability to detect precipitation types, so present weather is not included in METAR.

20 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Remarks: PKWND 17028/0123 Peak wind gust of 170 deg at 28 kts, observed at 0123Z TSB05 Thunderstorm began at 05 minutes past the hour PRESFR Pressure falling rapidly SLP132 Sea Level Pressure of mb. Basic interpretation rule: If 3 digit number is < 500, put a 10 in front to get SLP, 132 = mb If 3 digit number is >500, put a 9 in front to get SLP, 996 = mb Or, put a 9 or 10 in front and see which one brings SLP closer to OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE Occasional Lightning In Cloud and Cloud to Ground All Quadrants Moving Northeast. OCNL (Occasional) = less than 1 flash per minute FRQ (Frequent) = 1-6 flashes per minute CONS (Continuous) = more than 6 flashes per minute CC = Cloud to Cloud IC = In Cloud CG = Cloud to Ground CA = Cloud to Air

21 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Remarks: SNINCR 1/2 Snow Increase on ground, 1 inch increase in last hour, 2 inches total depth 4/002 Snow Depth = 2 inches total on ground (If not snowing, provided with augmented observation in morning, provided as snow increases during snowfall P0010 Precipitation in past hour = 0.10 inches (liquid equivalent) Precipitation in past 3 or 6 hours = 0.25 inches (liquid equivalent) 3 hour totals at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC observations 6 hour totals at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC observations Precipitation in past 24 hours = 0.32 inches (liquid equivalent) Provided at 1200 UTC observation

22 Decoding Text Reports n METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Remarks: T Temp and Dew Point with additional accuracy. T indicates Temp group next 4 digits provide actual measured temp and dew point. First digit indicated positive (0) or negative (1) value, next 3 digits are value with tenths Temp = -1.8 deg C, Dew Point = -4.2 deg C Max Temp (1) past 3 or 6 hours. 3 hour max for observations at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC. 6 hour max for obs at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC Max temp past 6 hours = -1.0 deg C Min Temp (2) past 3 or 6 hours. 3 hour min for observations at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC. 6 hour min for obs at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC Min temp past 6 hours = -5.1 deg C Max/Min Temp group (4) past 24 hours. Provided at local midnight obs. Max Temp past 24 hours = 1.5 deg C Min Temp past 24 hours = -7.5 deg C

23 n Decoding Text Reports METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Remarks: Pressure Tendency Group. Next digit indicates pressure tendency for past 3 hours: Number Meaning 0 Pressure increasing then decreasing, but higher than 3 hours ago 1 Pressure increasing then steady 2 Pressure increasing steadily 3 Pressure Steady then increasing 4 Pressure Steady 5 Pressure decreasing then increasing 6 Pressure decreasing then steady 7 Pressure decreasing steadily 8 Pressure steady then decreasing 029 Pressure change in mb = 2.9 mb change in past 3 hours = End of Report $ Indicates maintenance is required on system

24 n Decoding Text Reports METAR Observations KXYZ Z AUTO 17012G25 110V200 1/2SM R30L/3500V5000FT TSSN VV002 SCT008 BKN012 OVC020CB M02/M04 A2992 RMK A02 PKWND 17028/0123 TSB05 PRESFR SLP132 OCNL LTGICCG ALQDS MOV NE SNINCR 1/2 4/002 P T = Remarks: Meaning: RVRNO Runway Visual Range not available PWINO Present Weather not available PNO Precipitation amount not available FRZRANO Freezing rain detection not available TSNO Thunderstorm detection not available SLPNO Sea Level Pressure not available SFC VIS Surface Visibility as measured from ground observer TWR VIS Tower Visibility as measured from tower observer FIRST First observation with manual observer present LAST Last observation with manual observer present NOSPECI Indicates no SPECI intermediate observations are available ACFT MSHP Indicates an aircraft accident has occurred at the airport ACSL SW-NW Altocumulus Standing Lenticular Southwest through Northwest ROTOR CLD W Rotor Cloud West

25 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF Prepared by NWS Forecast Offices (WFO) n 24 or 30 Hour Forecast, Issued at 0000, 0600, 1200 and 1800 UTC, amendments (AMD) issued as needed n Prevailing and temporary conditions of the following phenomenon by time period for a 5 sm radius from airport: Winds n n Visibility n Weather n Clouds n n n Speed in knots in most TAFs, mps in Russia/China and kph in some former British colonies Low Level Wind Shear Statute miles in North America, Meters elsewhere Same codes as used in METAR observations Clouds bases given in hundreds of feet AGL Cloud Types (CB, TCU when present) Vertical Obscuration (VV)

26 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Station ID: KABC Issuance Time: Z 25 = 25th day of current month 1140Z = 1140 UTC Forecast Period: 2512/ = 25 th day of month at 1200 UTC 2612 = 26 th day of month at 1200 UTC Forecast period extends from 1200 UTC on the 25 th through 1200 UTC on the 26th Prevailing Conds: 50% or greater probability of occurrence for greater than ½ of the sub-divided forecast time period. Includes initial forecast and all FM groups. Winds: 16012G25KT Wind from 160 deg true north at 12 kts gusting to 25 kts Visibility: P6SM Visibility Unrestricted of 6 or more statute miles Weather: VCTS Thunderstorms in the vicinity (area from 5-10 sm from airport)

27 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Clouds: SCT060 BKN120 Scattered (3/8-4/8 coverage) clouds at 6000 ft (AGL) Broken (5/8-7/8 coverage) clouds at 12,000 ft (AGL) Prevailing Conds: FM From 1600 UTC on the 25th Winds: VRB15G30KT Variable wind direction with wind speed 15 kts gusting to 30 kts Visibility: 3SM Visibility of 3 statute miles Weather: TSRA Thunderstorms with rain Clouds: BKN010CB OVC060 Broken (5/8-7/8 coverage) clouds at 1000 ft (AGL) with CB clouds Overcast (8/8 coverage) clouds at 6000 ft (AGL)

28 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Temporary Change to Prevailing Conditions: TEMPO Used to indicate temporary fluctuations in meteorological conditions that have a 50% or greater probability of occurrence, will last less than 1 hour for each occurrence, and in aggregate cover less than half of the TEMPO time period. TEMPO 2518/2520 Temporary conditions from 1800 to 2000 UTC on the 25th Winds: If no winds provided in TEMPO, same winds as in prevailing conditions Visibility: 1/2SM Visibility of ½ statue mile Weather: +TSRA Thunderstorms with heavy rain Clouds: OVC005 Overcast (8/8 coverage) clouds at 500 ft (AGL)

29 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Prevailing Conds: FM New set of prevailing conditions starting at 2200 UTC on the 25th Winds: 31010G25KT Winds from 310 deg (true north) at 10 kts gusting to 25 kts Visibility: P6SM Unrestricted visibility of 6 statute miles or more Weather: No significant weather if none included Clouds: FEW030 SCT120 Few (1/8-2/8 coverage) clouds at 3000 ft (AGL) Scattered (3/8-4/8 coverage) clouds at 12,000 ft (AGL) Wind Shear: WS020/24050KT Low Level Wind Shear at 2000 ft AGL, wind from 240 deg at 50 kts at specified altitude. Only used for non-convective wind shear. Forecasted when the following criteria is met: When one or more PIREP is received that reported non-convective LLWS within 2000 ft AGL in the vicinity of the airport, causing an indicated air speed loss or gain of 20 kts or more, AND/OR, VWS of 10kts or more per 100 ft in a layer more than 200 ft thick is reported or is reliably expected within 2000 ft AGL.

30 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Prevailing Conds: FM New set of prevailing conditions starting at 0400 UTC on the 26th Winds: VRB03KT Variable wind direction at 3 kts or less Visibility: P6SM Unrestricted visibility of 6 statute miles or more Weather: No significant weather if none included Clouds: SKC Sky Clear, no clouds present. CLR is not used in TAF, only METAR CAVOK is used in international TAF and implies unrestricted visibility as well as no clouds

31 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Change to Prevailing Conds: PROB40 The Probability group is used by NWS forecasters to forecast a probability (between 30% and 50% chance) of a weather phenomenon occurring. PROB40 cannot be used in the first 6 hours of a TAF. Note that PROB30 is no longer used. Change: PROB %-50% chance of new conditions between 0600 and 1000 UTC Winds: No change to prevailing wind conditions Visibility: 1/4SM Visibility ¼ statute mile Weather: FG Fog (used only when visibility is less than 5/5 sm, BR used otherwise) Clouds: VV002 Indefinite ceiling, vertical visibility of 200 ft AGL

32 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF KABC Z 2512/ G25KT P6SM VCTS SCT060 BKN120 FM VRB15G30KT 3SM TSRA BKN010CB OVC060 TEMPO 2518/2520 1/2SM +TSRA OVC005 FM G25KT P6SM FEW030 SCT120 WS020/24050KT FM VRB03KT P6SM SKC PROB /4SM FG VV002 FM KT P6SM SKC Prevailing Conds: FM Prevailing conditions from 1000 UTC on the 26th Winds: 00000KT Calm winds Visibility: P6SM Unrestricted Visibility of 6 statute miles or more Weather: No significant weather Clouds: SKC Sky clear, no clouds present

33 Decoding Text Reports n Terminal Aerodrome Forecast - TAF Other Terms used in TAFs: NSW: No Significant Weather Only used in TEMPO group to indicate no significant weather VA: Volcanic Ash Always included when volcanic ash is present Visibility: 9999 International TAF use for unrestricted visibility, means 10 KM or greater NIL: visibility. 40KM Some countries forecast visibilities greater than 10 KM, such as New Zealand TAF suspended Until complete data is received to issue next scheduled TAF A forecaster usually requires 2 consecutive hourly METAR observations before a TAF is issued for a terminal. No significant weather TX23/22Z: Maximum Temp Forecast (selected intl airports) Max temp of 23 deg C expected at 2200 UTC TN11/13Z: Minimum Temp Forecast (selected intl airports) Minimum temp of 11 deg C expected at 1300 UTC

34 n Decoding Text Reports Pilot Reports PIREP Actual observations from pilots n Aircraft location n Time n Altitude n Aircraft Type n Conditions Temperature Turbulence Icing Wind Velocity & Shear Clouds Thunderstorms Volcanic Ash n Source

35 n Decoding Text Reports Pilot Reports PIREP DCA UA /OV DCA /TM 2042 /FL030 /TP E170 /IC LGT RIME= IAD UA /OV AML /TM 2004 /FL012 /TP SR22 /IC MOD RIME= IAD UA /OV AML /TM 1944 /FL032 /TP FA90 /SK OVC032 /RM DURD= DEN UA /OV KDEN322010/TM 1943/FL380/TP B737/TA M60/WV KT/TB LGT CHOP/RM AWC-WEB:SWA= SFO UA /OV 3930N 13450W/TM 2118/FL310/TP B744/TB LGT-MOD CHOP/RM ZOA CWSU = SEA UA /OV SEA146030/TM 2043/FL145/TP B738/SK TOPS 210/TB CONT LGT MOD/RM DURGC ZSE = SEA UA /OV SEA160040/TM 2029/FL170/TP DH8/TB CONT LGT CHOP/RM DURGD ZSE = CVG UA /OV CVG /TM 2020 /FL090 /TP E145 /TA M03 /IC NEG /RM IMC AT 090= CVG UA /OV CVG /TM 1744 /FLUNKN /TP CRJ7 /SK OVC007 / RM DURC NO TOPS THRU 130/ M01 070/ /070=

36 n AIRMET Decoding Text Reports Issued by AWC for the following conditions: n Moderate Icing (Zulu) n Moderate Turbulence (Tango) n IFR & Mountain Obscurations (Sierra) n Strong Surface Winds (> 30 kts) n Non-Convective LLWS below 2000 ft Issued at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC Valid for next 6 hours

37 n Decoding Text Reports AIRMET Examples WAUS45 KKCI AAA WA5T SLCT WA AMD AIRMET TANGO UPDT 3 FOR TURB VALID UNTIL SEE SIGMET VICTOR.... AIRMET TURB...WY UT CO...UPDT FROM BPI TO 50E OCS TO CHE TO 30NE DTA TO SLC TO BPI MOD TURB BLW 140. CONDS ENDG 21Z. WAUS45 KKCI WA5Z SLCZ WA AIRMET ZULU UPDT 2 FOR ICE AND FRZLVL VALID UNTIL AIRMET ICE...WY UT CO AZ NM FROM BFF TO GLD TO 50W LBL TO ABQ TO 30N PHX TO 60S EED TO EED TO SLC TO BFF MOD ICE BLW 160. CONDS CONTG BYD 21Z THRU 03Z. WAUS45 KKCI WA5S SLCS WA AIRMET SIERRA UPDT 2 FOR IFR AND MTN OBSCN VALID UNTIL AIRMET IFR...WY UT CO AZ NM FROM 60SW DDY TO BFF TO GLD TO 50W LBL TO CIM TO DRK TO 40E ILC TO 60ESE MLD TO 60SW DDY CIG BLW 010/VIS BLW 3SM PCPN/BR. CONDS ENDG 21Z WY/UT..CONTG RMNDR BYD 21Z THRU 03Z.

38 The G-AIRMET

39 Decoding Text Reports n G-AIRMET Graphical representation for text AIRMETs Issued at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC Display supplemental 00,03,06,09 and 12 hour snapshot graphics of aviation hazards in the 0-6 hour AIRMET valid period as well as the 6-12 hour outlook period. Provided in BUFR format for use in tools, and available as web graphics. Intended to provide a more refined depiction of aviation hazards described in the AIRMET text at more frequent time intervals. Eventually the G-AIRMET will be generated and text will be derived from the graphics.

40 Decoding Text Reports n Area Forecast (FA) Issued by AWC every 8 hours for a 12 hour forecast period plus a 6 hour outlook period Forecast conditions of MVFR and VFR areas and n Thunderstorms and precipitation n Clouds (bases, tops, amount) n Visibilities between 3 and 6 statute miles n Sustained surface winds of 20 kts or more

41 n Decoding Text Reports Area Forecast Example FAUS45 KKCI FA5W SLCC FA SYNOPSIS AND VFR CLDS/WX SYNOPSIS VALID UNTIL CLDS/WX VALID UNTIL OTLK VALID ID MT WY NV UT CO AZ NM. SEE AIRMET SIERRA FOR IFR CONDS AND MTN OBSCN. TS IMPLY SEV OR GTR TURB SEV ICE LLWS AND IFR CONDS. NON MSL HGTS DENOTED BY AGL OR CIG.. SYNOPSIS...UPR LVL LOW 12Z SWRN AZ FCST MOV EWD INTO XTRM SWRN NM BY 06Z. NRN PAC TROF WL MOV INTO XTRM NRN ID-ERN WA BY 06Z. AT SFC..HI PRES RIDGE CONTG OVR CNTRL ROCKIES THRU 06Z. CDFNT 12Z SERN NM WL CONT SWD INTO SWRN TX BY 18Z. CDFNT 12Z ERN AZ WL MOV SEWD INTO MEXICO BY 00Z.. ID NRN...SCT SCT Z SCT080 BKN150. TOPS FL200. OTLK...VFR BECMG MVFR CIG PCPN/BR 04Z. CNTRL MTNS...SCT CI. 19Z SCT150. OTLK...VFR. SWRN...SCT CI. OTLK...VFR. SERN...SCT-BKN065. TOPS Z SCT070. OTLK...VFR. CO MTNS AND WEST... SCT080 OVC TOPS FL180. SCT -SHSN MNLY MTNS. 19Z SCT100 SCT140. OTLK...VFR. FOOTHILLS/PLAINS... ERN PTN PLAINS..SCT- BKN TOPS 150. OTLK...VFR. FOOTHILLS/WRN PTN PLAINS...BKN070. TOPS FL180. TIL 15Z OCNL VIS 3-5SM BR. BECMG 1618 SCT090 SCT150. OTLK...VFR.

42 n Decoding Text Reports SIGMET Issued by AWC for the following conditions: n Severe Icing n Severe Turbulence n Thunderstorms Convective SIGMETs issued separately for CONUS n Widespread Duststorm or Sandstorm n Volcanic Ash n Tropical Cyclones Phenomenon must affect an area of at least 3000 square miles Issued for CONUS, AK, HI, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, North Pacific and North Atlantic

43 Decoding Text Reports n SIGMET Issued for a 4 hour period as needed for Icing and Turbulence, 6 hour period for Volcanic Ash and Tropical Cyclones with 12 hour outlook Referenced as: n n n n AWC for CONUS - NOVEMBER through YANKEE, excluding SIERRA and TANGO AWC for Oakland Oceanic FIR - ALFA through HOTEL Honolulu MWO for Oakland Oceanic FIR - NOVEMBER through ZULU AAWU for Anchorage FIR - INDIA through MIKE

44 n Decoding Text Reports SIGMET Examples WSUS05 KKCI WS5V SLCV WS SIGMET VICTOR 1 VALID UNTIL ID UT NV CA AND CSTL WTRS FROM BOI TO PIH TO ILC TO 60SW RZS TO PYE TO FMG TO BOI OCNL SEV TURB BTN FL240 AND FL360 DUE TO WNDSHR ASSOCD WITH JTST AND UPR TROF. RPRTD BY ACFT E OF CZQ BTN FL310 AND FL340. CONDS MOVG SLOLY SWD AND CONTG BYD 1755Z.

45 Decoding Text Reports n Convective SIGMET Issued every hour for a 2 hour period for: n Severe Thunderstorms (hail >1 in, winds > 50 kts) n Line of Thunderstorms 50 mi long, affecting at least 40% of its length n Area of active thunderstorms at least 3000 sq mi affecting at least 40% of the area Outlook issued for 4 hour period

46 n Decoding Text Reports Convective SIGMET Example: CONVECTIVE SIGMET 54C VALID UNTIL 1855Z WI IL FROM 30E MSN-40ESE DBQ DMSHG LINE TS 15 NM WIDE MOV FROM 30025KT. TOPS TO FL450. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KT POSS.

47 Decoding Text Reports n Volcanic Ash Advisories 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) Issue advisories when volcanic eruption has occurred or is imminent Issued for 6 hour period, updated every 6 hours

48 n Decoding Text Reports Volcanic Ash Advisory Example: VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORY ISSUED: 2003JUL10/1300Z VAAC: WASHINGTON VOLCANO: ANATAHAN LOCATION: N1621E14540 AREA: MARIANA ISLANDS SUMMIT ELEVATION: 2585 FT (788 M) ADVISORY NUMBER: 2003/251 INFORMATION SOURCE: GOES 9 IMAGERY. GFS MODEL WINDS FORECAST ERUPTION DETAILS: ASH AND GAS EMISSIONS SINCE MAY 10. OBS ASH DATE/TIME: 09/1202Z. OBS ASH CLOUD: ASH NOT IDENTIFIABLE FROM SATELLITE DATA. WINDS SFC/FL080 MOVING SW KNOTS. FCST ASH CLOUD +6H: SEE SIGMETS. REMARKS: THE ASH PLUME OBSERVED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY IS TOO THIN AND DIFFUSE TO BE SEEN IN INFRARED AND MULTISPECTRAL IMAGAERY. ANY ASH UP TO FL080 SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE SW AT KNOTS. NEXT ADVISORY: WILL BE ISSUED BY 2003JUL10/1900Z.

49 Decoding Text Reports n Center Weather Advisories Issued by the Center Weather Service Units for conditions impacting flight in the enroute and terminal environments in the FIR Valid for 2 hours, updated every 2 hours or as needed

50 n Decoding Text Reports Center Weather Advisory Example: n n CWA - Center Weather Advisory ZID CWA 103 VALID UNTIL FROM 45NE APE-80W BKW-70WNW IIU-30NE ROD-45NE APE SCT TS. MOVE FROM 30020KT. MAX TOPS ABV FL450. ACTIVITY IS INCREASING. =

51 n Decoding Text Reports Meteorological Impact Statement Example: n n MIS - Meteorological Impact Statement ZID MIS 03 VALID FOR ATC PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY... IN ZID E OF A LN FM 30S LOZ-30SE IND-65E HNN...SCT TS DVLPG THRU 21Z...FRMG SML CLUSTERS/BKN LNS. MAX TOPS ABV FL450. MOST TOPS FL MOV FM 30025KT. N OF A LN FM 45SW TTH-15E BKW SCT MOD CHOP ISOL MOD TURB IN TS OUTFLOW DMSH THRU 21Z.=

52 Decoding Text Reports n Tropical Cyclone Bulletins Issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami Created every 6 hours at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 UTC for the Atlantic, Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific TROPICAL STORM LOWELL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP UTC WED AUG THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 360SE 240SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 121.5W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 121.4W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

53 n Decoding Text Reports Tropical Cyclone Bulletins

54 Decoding Text Reports n Wind & Temp Aloft Forecast (FD) Created using NWS GRIB numerical forecast data Provides forecast of wind velocity and temperature by altitude for a specific future time Updated every 6 hours from new forecast data

55 n Decoding Text Reports Wind & Temp Aloft Forecast Examples VALID Z FOR USE Z. TEMPS NEG ABV FT MKC KAPA FD DATA BASED ON Z Z P M M M M M M32 06Z P M M M M M M32 12Z M M M M M M M32 18Z P M M M M M M32 Wind Direction always reference true north, speed in knots If wind speed exceeds 99 kts, 50 is added to wind direction e.g = wind from 270 deg (77-50=27) at 103 kts

56 Radiosonde Balloons n Weather Balloons are launched twice daily (0000 and 1200 UTC) worldwide As balloon ascends it measures the following: n Pressure, Geopotential Height, Temperature, Dew Point, Wind Velocity n Thermodynamic diagrams (Skew-T/Log-P) can graphically depict the atmosphere profile and calculate various stability indexes and parameters

57 Skew-T/Log-P Diagram

58 Break

59 Weather Trivia Which U.S. state hold the record for the highest 24 hour precipitation amount? A.) Hawaii B.) California C.) Texas D.) Florida

60 Weather Trivia Which U.S. state hold the record for the highest 24 hour precipitation amount? Answer: A.) Hawaii 38 Kilauea Plantation 1956 B.) California Hoegees Camp 1943 C.) Texas 43 inches near Alvin, TX July associated with T.S. Claudette D.) Florida 38.7 Yankeetown 1950 World record is 72 inches of rain in 24 hours on La Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean associated with a tropical cyclone Jan Colorado record is in Holly, June 17, 1965

61 Aviation Weather Resources Jeppesen n Text and Graphic weather and NOTAMs n n

62 Aviation Weather Resources NCAR & Univ of Wyoming n Skew-T Log P diagrams n n

63 Aviation Weather Resources NWS Denver (Boulder) n Point Specific Forecasts n Radar Data n Satellite Imagery n Forecast Discussion n Aviation Weather n Balloon and Soaring Forecast n

64 Aviation Weather Resources Storm Prediction Center n Thunderstorms Forecast n Severe Weather Forecast n Tornado, Hail and Wind Probabilities n

65 Aviation Weather Resources NOAA Enhanced Data Display n Current Surface Data n

66 Aviation Weather Resources Numerical Model Data n n

67 Aviation Weather Resources Forecast Skew T Log P Diagrams n fcstsound.html

68 Aviation Weather Resources Aviation Weather Center n Aviation weather n G-AIRMET n SIGMETs n PIREPs n Turbulence (GTG) n Icing (CIP and FIP) n Flight Path Tool n

69 Break

70 Weather Trivia Question In 2012, what weather phenomena accounted for the highest number of weather related fatalities in the U.S.? A. Heat B. Floods C. Tornadoes D. Lightning

71 Weather Trivia Question In 2012, what weather phenomena accounted for the highest number of weather related fatalities in the U.S.? Answer: A. Heat (155) 10 year average = 117 B. Floods (29) - 10 yr avg = 76 / 30 yr avg = 89 C. Tornadoes (70) - 10 yr avg = 109 / 30 yr avg = 74 D. Lightning (28) - 10 yr avg = 35 / 30 yr avg = 52 E. Cold (8) - 10 yr avg = 27 F. Hurricanes (4) - 10 yr avg = 109 / 30 yr avg = 47

72 Flight Scenario Planning an IFR flight from KAPA to KFLG Flight to be conducted in a Piper Malibu Mirage Planned departure at 1800 UTC (1100 MDT) Personal Minimums include: n Avoid all thunderstorms n Light to moderate turbulence, no severe n Trace to light icing, no moderate or severe n Landing need ½ sm visibility and 500 ft ceiling

73 Possible Route

74 300 mb (FL300) Analysis Fri 1200Z

75 500 mb (FL180) Analysis Fri 1200Z

76 700 mb (FL100) Analysis Fri 1200Z

77 850 mb (FL050) Analysis Fri 1200Z

78 Surface Analysis Fri 1200Z

79 IR Satellite/Radar Fri 1500Z

80 Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1500Z

81 Water Vapor Satellite Image Fri 1600Z

82 Surface Analysis Fri 1500Z

83 Weather Depiction Aug Z

84 IR Satellite/Radar Aug Z

85 Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1600Z

86 Turbulence Analysis FL Fri 1500Z

87 Icing Analysis FL Fri 1500Z

88 G-AIRMET Fri 1700Z

89 KDEN Sounding Fri 1200Z

90 KFLG Sounding Aug Z

91 METAR and TAFs Fri 1700Z KAPA Z 2216/ KT P6SM SCT070 BKN120 FM KT P6SM VCTS SCT070CB BKN120 TEMPO 2221/2301 VRB20G35KT 4SM TSRA BKN050CB FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 OVC060 TEMPO 2301/2304 VRB15G25KT 4SM TSRA BKN035CB FM KT P6SM SCT050 OVC080 PROB /2308 -SHRA BKN050 FM KT P6SM SCT080 BKN120= KAPA Z 00000KT 10SM FEW075 SCT110 OVC140 19/12 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP167 T = KGUC Z AUTO 03003KT 10SM CLR 14/08 A3034 RMK AO1= KFMN Z 10005KT 10SM CLR 18/12 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP173 T KFLG Z 2218/ KT P6SM FEW020 SCT030 BKN070 TEMPO 2218/2222 -SHRA BKN020 FM VRB03KT P6SM SCT030= KFLG Z 23008KT 10SM SCT010 SCT019 OVC080 15/11 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP176 T =

92 NWS Aviation Discussion Fri 1730Z APA TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY TO MID AFTN WITH HIGHEST THREAT FM 21Z-01Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH. COULD SEE VISIBILITIES DROP DOWN TO 1-3 MILES WITH CEILINGS BLO 3000 FT FOR PERIODS UP TO 30 MINUTES ANY TIME BETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z IF AIRPORTS TAKE A DIRECT HIT FM STORMS. AFTER 01Z CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS TSTMS MOVE OFF TO THE NE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBANCE MENTIONED ABV. FLG FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SOME CONVECTIVE SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK/SUPPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ONE OF THESE SHOWERS...GREATEST AT KINW. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AFTER 02Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

93 Friday Observation Data So we have looked at current data from Friday morning Any areas of concern that may impact the flight? Now let s look at some forecast data

94 Precip Accumulation UTC Fri

95 Precip Accumulation UTC Fri

96 Flight Conditions Forecast Aug Z

97 Turbulence Forecast FL Aug Z

98 Icing Forecast FL Aug Z

99 FL100 Winds/Temps Forecast Aug Z

100 Flight Conditions Fri 1800Z

101 Flight Conditions Sat 0000Z

102 Turbulence FL Fri 1900Z

103 Icing FL Fri 1900Z

104 Convective Outlook Fri 1200Z Sat 1200Z

105 KAPA Forecast Sounding Fri 1800Z

106 KFLG Forecast Sounding Sat 0000Z

107 RH Plan View Fri 1800Z

108 RH Profile View Fri 1800Z

109 Temp Plan View Fri 1800Z

110 Temp Profile View Fri 1800Z

111 Turbulence Plan View Fri 1800Z

112 Turbulence Profile View Fri 1800Z

113 Icing Plan View Fri 1800Z

114 Icing Profile View Fri 1800Z

115 Decision Time n What Hazards are of concern? n What options exists?

116 KAPA Z 00000KT 10SM -RA FEW050 BKN100 OVC140 19/12 A3019 RMK AO2 RAB42 SLP160 P T = KGUC Z AUTO 35003KT 10SM FEW070 SCT075 14/08 A3034 RMK AO1= KFMN Z 10007KT 10SM CLR 19/12 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP T = KFLG Z 19008KT 10SM FEW026 SCT043 OVC080 16/10 A3028 RMK AO2 SLP T =

117 NEXRAD Reflectivity Fri 1800Z

118 Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1800Z

119 Route Weather Fri 1800Z

120 Route Weather Fri 1800Z

121 NEXRAD Reflectivity Fri 1900Z

122 Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 1900Z

123 Route Weather Fri 1900Z

124 Route Weather Fri 1900Z

125 NEXRAD Reflectivity Fri 2000Z

126 Visible Satellite + Lightning Fri 2000Z

127 Enroute Weather Fri 2000Z

128 Enroute Weather Fri 2000Z

129 Enroute Weather Fri 2030Z

130 Enroute Weather Fri 2030Z