Mapping World Events. Clive Best, JRC GI4DM, 2005
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1 Mapping World Events Clive Best, JRC GI4DM, 2005
2 Basic Goals Fusion of media reports & Geospatial data for situation and crisis management. Early warning systems & Trend analysis Based on : Automatic Internet news monitoring (EMM) Users: RELEX, ECHO, EC Crisis Rooms
3 State of the World Physical Thermodynamic systems have a state S(T,V,P..). Hide molecular complexity. Measured by Temp, Press, Entropy Weather is rather more complex chaotic Weather Maps Social Social systems have a state (war, peace, growth, famine etc.) Hide complex issues. Measured by news reporting - indicators Real life is also complex even chaotic News Maps
4 Analogy with the weather Weather NEWS
5 Europe Media Monitor (EMM) Media Monitoring System for European Union 700 web sites around the world every 15 mins 15 news agencies 30 world languages Site updates every 10 minutes 25,000 articles per day 400 subject Alerts defined by keyword lists EC specific but has good world coverage
6 Automatic Newsletters Updated live 24/7 25 Multilingual versions Top Stories Breaking News Global Themes Latest EU News All world Country Feeds DG Newsletters
7 EMM Alert Definitions <alert id="alternativeenergy"> <maxarticles>50</maxarticles> <definition> <mustcontain> <combination> <or> <pattern>energy</pattern> <pattern>énergie</pattern> <pattern>energia</pattern> <pattern>energie</pattern> </or> <or> <pattern>sustainable</pattern> <pattern>soutenable</pattern> <pattern>sostenibile</pattern> <pattern>stützbar</pattern> <pattern>safe</pattern> <pattern>sûr</pattern> <pattern>sicura</pattern> <pattern>sicher</pattern> <pattern>clean</pattern> <pattern>propre</pattern> <pattern>pulita</pattern> <pattern>sauber</pattern> <pattern>biomass%</pattern> <pattern>alternative+fuels</pattern> <pattern>carburant+alternatif</pattern> <pattern>carburante+altenativo</pattern> <pattern>alternative+kraftstoff</pattern> <pattern>fuel+cells</pattern> <pattern>kraftstoff+zelle</pattern> </or> </combination> </mustcontain> </definition> </alert> Tunable subject Alert definitions detect articles & Send SMS/ alerts Boolean Combinations <alert id="nuclearsafety"> <maxarticles>50</maxarticles> <definition> <words threshold="10"> <word> <pattern>nuclear+safety</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> <word> <pattern>sécurité+nucléaire</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> <word> <pattern>sicurezza+nucleare</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> <word> <pattern>kern-sicherheit</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> <word> <pattern>progetto+nuovo+reattore</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> <word> <pattern>neu+reaktor+entwerfen</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> <word> <pattern>tacis</pattern> <weight>10</weight> </word> </words> </definition> </alert> Word Filters: Σ weight > threshold
8 Analysis Main Strands EMM RSS based Real-time Breaking News Detection Article Clustering & Geolocation Statistics, Indicators News Maps Statistical Analysis
9 1. Real Time Breaking News Detection Headlines appear with capitalised Nouns. Identify new Topics appearing above the background nouns time Breaking News topic Signal level depends on dn dt Time to live
10
11 2. Article Clustering and Geocoding Assign keywords, geocoding Extract semantic features from plain text Compare frequency of word in one article to its frequency in a big corpus Geocoding (geographical place recognition), using a multi lingual database of about 80,000 places in the world. Disambiguation needed (14 Paris ) More Than 20 Dead In Bali Blast site (Reuters) More Than 20 Dead In Bali More than 20 people have been killed and up to 120 others wounded in a series of explosions on Indonesia's resort island of Bali.?There were three blasts at two nightclubs, one of which was caused by a homemade bomb, police officials said. One officer said they had occurred simultaneously, one of them not far from the US consulate on Bali. 'Lightly wounded' "At this stage we have 14 people dead. There are around 120 badly and lightly wounded," Yatim Suyatmo, police spokesman for Bali, said. One local photographer said he had seen up to 15 cars wrecked by one of the blasts, with a number of people still inside the club. Police said it was too early to say if all the blasts had been caused by bombs.?but they come at a time of growing security concerns in the world's most populous Muslim nation in the wake of recent terror threats. Explosions Police said all the explosions were concentrated in the Kuta Beach district - an area popular with foreign tourists. An official at a local hospital said the wounded included Americans and Australians. Eyewitnesses spoke of chaos near one of the blasts at the Sari nightclub near the famous Kuta beach strip. One witness said windows on shops had been blown out up to 500 metres away from the Sari nightclub, and that the blast had been heard many miles away blasts, bali, wounded, explosions, sari, lightly, kuta, nightclub
12 Building a cluster tree Every night, for each language Take all articles (7000 for English) Use keywords and countries as features Algorithm: Find pair of texts that are most similar Group them in one cluster, repeat the operation until only one cluster remains 10% 80% 40% 90% 75%
13 Combined with Terrorism Alert Geocoded news for 6 th September 2004 Beslan
14 3. Statistics, Indicators News Maps Approach is to build into EMM operations logging of statistics, themes and countries. 24/7 live monitoring since July 2003 countries themes
15 Themes Countries Themes are defined as Alerts which apply Globally : Conflict Food Security and Food Aid Terrorism Humantarian Aid Security Natural Disasters Man Made Disasters Ecology Alert categories are defined for all world countries. Name of country in all langauges + capitols (if unique). 220 countries
16 Trends and Statistics EMM Alert system logs statistics since July Alert System keeps hourly statistics in XML files for each alert AND for (theme,country) coincidences. Alert files also record all categories triggered for each article, source countries, languages etc. XML-API to select coincidences We then define sets of articles S(theme,country) for any hour/day/month
17 BAM Earthquake Detail
18 Thematic Indicators Thematic Indicators derived from EMM Alert Statistics I cj = N cj ; where N cj = No.articles for Combination of country C and theme j N c and N c = total <count> for country C. I jc = N cj ; where N cj = article <count> for Combination of country C and theme j N j and N i = total <count> for theme j I cj (t, T) = Indicator measured at time t aggregated over time period T
19 Time series studies of country indicators Coup d etat
20 Terrorist Attacks in Spain
21 News Maps Basic Idea World Map of country indicators at one time Animations of events show evolution over time Technology SVG Scalable Vector Graphics & FLASH Simple XSLT transform Live 24/7 operations, Live News Maps
22 Geographic Indicators
23 Case Study Forgotten Crises While the world s attention focuses on crises in Iraq and Middle East, those in Africa and Asia are forgotten. ECHO, UN need to identify these forgotten conflicts to provide humanitarian aid to avert major tragedies like Rwanda. Forgotten crises are countries with high internal conflict but low media coverage.
24 Study for ECHO Aug2003: Forgotten Crises I Conflict Selection for countries with High internal conflict indicator BUT low global conflict Indicator I ct I tc
25 Study: Information synthesis for RELEX Provide desk officers with concise clear overviews of current situation in any country of the world. Integrate news, Maps & structural data News hotspots for themes
26 Hourly Live News Maps Countries more in the news Compares to 5 Day average. Countries more mentioned in Conflict articles than expected
27 Tsunami 26 th Dec 2004
28 Effect of Tsunami 26th Dec 2004 Natural Disaster Alarm
29
30 Summary News statistics and visualisation Breaking News detection & visualisation Thematic Indicators, Trends and Statistics News Clustering and Geolocation of Stories News Maps, Crisis warning and analysis Public URLs (NewsBrief) (News Explorer) (Live Maps)
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