Water Availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin under Climate Change
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1 Water Availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin under Climate Change Dr. Alain Pietroniro, P.Eng. Ms. Brenda Toth, MSc Ms. Jessika Toyra National Water Research Institute, National Hydrology research Centre 11 Innovation Blvd., Saskatoon. SK. Dr. Thian Yew Gan Professor, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta Dr. Jim Byrne and Dr. Stefen Keinzel Professor, Department of Geography, University of Lethbridge, Lethbridge, Alberta Mr. Mike Demuth, P.Eng., P.Geo Glaciology Program, Terrain Sciences Division Natural Resources Canada
2 Hydrology and the Canadian Prairies Some of the largest potential changes in surface water quantity under the currently predicted climate scenarios are in the Canadian prairies. Adapting to these changes requires sophisticated understanding of the hydrological cycle within the prairie eco-zone in tandem with understanding the influence that human intervention on the landscape has made to the hydrological regime.
3 Objective To predict the future water availability in the South Saskatchewan River Basin (SSRB) under the potential impact of climate change using hydrologic models calibrated to SSRB and forced by downscaled climate scenarios projected by some selected general circulation models (GCM). To prove the utility of a physical modeling study linked and integrated to water policy via a socio-economic study The scenarios will allow others to examine surface water resources management strategies on the prairies in an integrated watershed management framework under varying climate scenarios.
4 GCM Analysis GCM Data CCRS-NIES CGCM1 CGCM2 CSIROMK2b ECHAM4 GFDL-R15 GFDL-R3 HadCM2 HadCM3 NCAR-DOE NCAR-PCM Observed Data IDW Prairie & Northern Region CRU Climatic Research Unit WATMPPR U of Waterloo current climate simulations of seasonal & annual: - Mean Temperature -Total Precipitation Baseline climatology
5 Temperature Best seasonal representation CCSR-NIES and ECHAM4 Good annual balance HadCM3 and NCAR-PCM Precipitation Best seasonal NCAR-PCM Baseline comparison Annual balance GFDL-R3, NCAR-PCM and ECHAM4
6 Mean Temperature ( C) Baseline comparison Data Sets Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn IDW CCSR-NIES CGCM CGCM CSIROMK2b ECHAM GFDL-R GFDL-R HadCM HadCM NCAR-DOE NCAR-PCM Yellow values = no significant difference
7 NCAR NCAR-PCM PCM NCAR-DOE HadCM HadCM GFDL GFDL-R3 R GFDL-R ECHAM4 ECHAM CSIROMK2b CGCM CGCM CCSR-NIES IDW IDW Autumn Summer Spring Winter Annual Data Sets Total Precipitation (mm) Baseline comparison
8 Disaggregate (hourly) Interpolate (hourly) Meteorological Forcing and Downscaling Current Climate forcing: Surface Observations from Climate Archive Precipitation (Daily) - 3 years Temperature (Daily) - 3 years stations Interpolated (Kriging) Lapse rate Forcing for future climate: Apply basin mean changes in T and P due to GCM to observed data GCM %Precip +Temp echa echb hada hadb ncara ncarb Description driest, warmest moderately wet and warm wettest and least warm Season % Precip +Temp Description winter wetter and warmer spring wetter and somewhat warmer summer drier and much warmer fall wetter and warmer
9 Modeling results Watflood - MISBA Mean flow (cms) Jan FebMar April May June JulyAug meas 5BH4 mod Calgary Sept Oct Nov Dec Mean flow (cms) Jan FebMar April May June JulyAug meas 5CK4 mod Blindloss Sept Oct Nov Dec Mean flow (cms) Jan FebMar April May June JulyAug mod Dief measured mod Dief modelled Sept Oct Nov Dec Mean annual flows cms Mean flow (cms) Jan FebMar April May June JulyAug meas 5AD7 mod Leth Sept Oct Nov Dec flow (cms) Oldman current (AG6) Jan Feb Mar Apr May JunJul Aug SepOct MISBA Watflood Nov Dec Flow (cms) Oldman (5AG6) Bow River current (BN12) Jan FebMar Apr May JunJul Bow River (5BN12) Observed MISBA Watflood Aug SepOct MISBA Watflood Nov Dec
10 modelled flows (average cms) Bow River at Banff current ech had ncar climatology modelled flows (average cms) Bow River at Banff winter spring summer fall Red Deer River at Red Deer current ech had ncar climatology Seasonal response in future flows winter spring summer fall modelled flows (average cms) South Saskatchewan River at Diefenbaker current ech had ncar climatology Old Man River at Lethbridge winter spring summ Season % Precip +Temp Description winter wetter and warmer spring wetter and somewhat warmer summer drier and much warmer fall wetter and warmer fall 2 15 modelled flows (average cms) current ech had ncar climatology winter spring summer fall modelled flows (average cms) 1 5 current ech had ncar climatology winter spring summe fall
11 Uncertainties or Confessions of a modeler "The greatest obstacle to discovery is not ignorance, it is the illusion of knowledge". - Daniel Boorstin Prairie Hydrology is poorly understood!!! Data uncertainties Non-contributing area Effect of land-use practices Groundwater The role of glaciers The role of potholes and depression features in the water and energy balance Snow sublimation Seasonally frozen soils ET estimates are uncertain
12 PET estimates available to link to distributed hydrologic modeling PET (mm) Land Surface Potential Evapotranspiration Morton Land Surface (1147) Modified Priestley-Taylor (146) Hargreaves (619) NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (1674) Pan Evaporation (1263) Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Month Morton/CRAE Spatially and temporally insufficient Modified Priestley-Taylor Estimates end at Alberta border NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data Sufficient spatial/temporal resolution Hargreaves within Watflood Can be modified/recoded Must ensure consistency
13 British Columbia Closed basins of the glaciated northern prairies Peace River Non-contributing drainage area (percent of total basin area) for prairie drainage basins -median annual runoff- 1 Athabasca River Alberta 1 Edmonton 4 Saskatchewan River Saskatoon Calgary 3 Churchill River Seal River Nelson River Manitoba Saskatchewan 1 Lake Winnipeg Hayes River Ontario Washington Idaho Helena Montana 27 Missouri River Regina 62 Assiniboine River North Dakota 3 Winnipeg Red River 1 Winnipeg River Michigan Oregon Bismarck Minnesota Boise Wyoming Source:Non-contributing area - Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, P.F.R.A. Elevation data - Environmental Systems Research Institute South Dakota Kilometers Minneapolis Saint Paul Wisconsin
14 SSRB Water Availability Study physical modeling and linkages The Physical Component of the SSRB climate change study nearing completion Comparison with Sacramento, MISBA for major sub-basins Cross validation/nested scaling Model output linked to economic analysis on a yearly and sub-basin scale Where to go, implications for DRI Continued evaluation on other components of the water cycle Potential evapotranspiration (PET), AET/soil moisture availability Closed basins, non-contributing areas Assessment of uncertainties with further examination of current climate modelling or within GCM scenarios SSRB has striven for a unique and consistent approach to quantifying socio-economic impacts using solid physical models and methodologies.
15 Many investigators and assistants have been instrumental in the physical modeling. They include Mr. Pablo Dornes (U of S) Dr. Taha Ouarda, Ing. (INRS-EAU) Mr. Kelly Best (NWRI) Ms. Jessika Toyra (NWRI) Dr. Barrie Bonsal (NWRI) Ms. Krysha Dukacz (NWRI) Mr. Chris Hopkinson (WLU) Mr. Guy Duke (U of Lethbridge) Mr. Dave Harvey (WSC) Mr. Malcolm Conly, P.Geo (NWRI) PFRA, SaskWater, AEP, PARC, CCAF
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