WINTER-SASCOF-1 Current Prediction System/Verification- Maldives

Transcription

1 WINTER-SASCOF-1 Current Prediction System/Verification- Maldives Zahid Deputy Director General Climatology Maldives Meteorological Service Chennai, India, October

2 The Maldives 99% of Maldives is sea area and 1 % land area. 2

3 Weather/Climate Observation network 5 manned aviation & synoptic stations over the country (stretching from about 7 N and 0.5 S): Hanimaadhoo Hulhule Kaadedhoo Kadhdhoo Gan Kadhdhoo Gan Hanimaadho o Hulhule Kaadedhoo

4 Weather/Climate Observation network AWS: 20 Upper air observation : 1 Weather RADAR : 1 Seismometers : 2 Tide gauge : 3 Satellite picture receiving system (CMA): 1

5 Weather/Climate Observation network HD.Hanimaadhoo HDh.Makunudh oo R.Vaadho o HA. Uligam Sh. Feevak K. Kaashidhoo Hulhule Hawai i K. Vabbinfaru Adh. Rangali F.Nilandho o Dh.Hulhudhel i K. Hulhule K. Male V.Fulidho o GA.Villingi li GDh.Gadhdh oo S.HHithadhoo Gn.Fuahmulak u S.Hulhumeedho o S.Gan

6 Climate of Maldives 6

7 Climate of Maldives Maldives has two seasons: Wet season (southwest monsoon extending from mid-may to November). Dry season (northeast monsoon extending from January to March/April)

8 Climate of Maldives In these two seasons the temperature variations are very small as they are moderated by the sea (99% of Maldives is sea area) Hence Maldives experience a maritime climate.

9 Rainfall Climatology 9

10 Rainfall variability 10

11 Monthly rainfall North NE Monsoon: 16% Central NE Monsoon: 28% South NE Monsoon: 36% 11

12 Spatial mean annual rainfall 12

13 North East Monsoon Rainfall (Jan and March) 13

14 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall (Jul, Sept and Nov) 14

15 Extreme rainfall events: rainfall > 50mm Showing decreasing trend (no of days with rainfall threshold value of 50mm decreasing) In all the years and for all the locations at least 2 rainfall events >50mm Indicates both bad and good news!!!

16 Prediction System 16

17 Tools used for rainfall prediction 17

18 Satellite Application CMAcast FY2 E Satellite image Receive images every 30 min IR, Vis, Water vapor & 3D images

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20 Prediction system Based on these and other products, we provide 5 day forecast and seasonal forecast We also use IMD, RIMES and WMO lead centre products for issuing seasonal forecast 20

21 THE FIRST NATIONAL Climate Service: Seasonal Climate MONSOON FORUM Prediction in the Maldives July 2-3, 2012 MMS started issuing Fuvahmulak, seasonal Maldives rainfall forecast in 2012 (Monsoon forum: RIMES) 21

22 Climate Service: Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives Since then every year we issue seasonal rainfall forecast Last year issued seasonal forecast 3 times 22

23 Climate Service: Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives This year, during first National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF: WMO), Southwest Monsoon seasonal rainfall forecast was shared with stakeholders. 23

24 Seasonal Climate Prediction in the Maldives: So far we have not issued seasonal forecast for northeast monsoon season. However, it is very important to issue seasonal forecast for north east monsoon season. During this season many islands of Maldives experience shortage of rainwater. 24

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26 Shortage of rainwater

27 Verification 27

28 2014 Monsoon rainfall prediction 28

29 2014 Monsoon rainfall (actual) Monsoon season rainfall (mm) Average % Change

30 2014 Monsoon rainfall (actual) Overall, Maldives monsoon rainfall for the year 2014 was near normal (9 % less rainfall compared to period average). 30

31 Southwest Monsoon rainfall for 2015-Maldives 31

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33 Hanimaadhoo Below-normal Hulhule Kaadedhoo Above-normal Gan Kadhdhoo 33

34 Below normal for northern and central parts of Maldives. Above normal for southern parts of Maldives. 34

35 Consensus forecast for

36 Average June July August September 36

37 2015 Monsoon rainfall (actual) Overall, Maldives monsoon rainfall for the year 2015 was above normal (18 % more rainfall compared to period average). Northern part shows about 24% less rainfall compared to period average 37

38 Thank you 38

39 Some photos

40 Seaplane-Largest fleet in the world

41 Thank you

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43 Tourism

44 Pic of Maldives (beautiful pic)

45 Fisheries Industry

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