5.4.7 Severe Winter Storm

Transcription

1 5.4.7 Severe This section provides a hazard profile and vulnerability assessment for the severe winter storm hazard for the Otsego County Hazard Mitigation Plan (HMP) Hazard Profile This section provides information regarding the description, extent, location, previous occurrences and losses, and the probability of future occurrences for the severe winter storm hazard. Description For the purpose of this HMP and as deemed appropriate by Otsego County, the severe winter storm hazard includes heavy snow (snowstorms), blizzards, sleet, freezing rain, and ice storms. Otsego County is vulnerable to two notable winter storm types: Northeaster and Lake-Effect storms. A Northeaster usually forms off the U.S. East Coast near the Carolinas, then follows a track northward along the coast until blowing out to sea. Occasionally, these storms are large enough to cover the entire state of New York, but primarily affect eastern and southern New York. Lake-Effect storms occur when moisture is picked up from the Great Lakes and then blown across the western-central portion of New York State, often leaving huge quantities of snow. Both storm types are known for high snow accumulations and high winds, causing major damages, usually by disrupting transportation, limiting communications, and causing power outages. According to the 2014 New York State Hazard Mitigation Plan (NYS HMP), winter storms are frequent events for the State of New York and occur from late October until mid-april. Heavy Snow According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), snow is precipitation in the form of ice crystals. It originates in clouds when temperatures are below the freezing point (32 degrees Fahrenheit [ F]), when water vapor in the atmosphere condenses directly into ice without going through the liquid stage. Once an ice crystal has formed, it absorbs and freezes additional water vapor from the surrounding air, growing into snow crystals or snow pellets, which then fall to the earth. Snow falls in different forms, such as snowflakes, snow pellets, or sleet. Snowflakes are clusters of ice crystals that form from a cloud. Snow pellets are opaque ice particles in the atmosphere. They form as ice crystals fall through super-cooled cloud droplets that are below freezing but remain a liquid. The cloud droplets then freeze to the crystals. A heavy snowstorm is defined as a snowstorm with accumulations of 4 inches or more of snow in a 6-hour period, or 6 inches of snow in a 12-hour period (NWS 2009). Blizzards A blizzard is a winter snowstorm with sustained or frequent wind gusts of 35 miles per hour (mph) or more, accompanied by falling or blowing snow reducing visibility to or below 0.25 mile. These conditions must be predominant over a 3-hour period to be considered a blizzard. Extremely cold temperatures are often associated with blizzard conditions, but are not a formal part of the definition. The hazard created by the combination of snow, wind, and low visibility significantly increases with temperatures below 20 F. A severe blizzard is categorized as having temperatures near or below 10 F, winds exceeding 45 mph, and visibility reduced by snow to near 0 miles. systems powerful enough to cause blizzards usually form when the jet stream dips far to the south, allowing cold air from the north to clash with warm air from the south. Blizzard conditions often develop on the northwest side of an intense storm system. The difference between the lower pressure in the storm and the higher pressure to the west creates a tight pressure gradient, resulting in strong winds and extreme conditions caused by the blowing snow (The Weather Channel 2012). Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

2 Sleet Sleet is made up of drops of rain that freeze into ice as they fall. They are usually smaller than 0.30 inch in diameter (NSIDC 2013). A sleet storm involves significant accumulations of solid pellets, which form from the freezing of raindrops or partially melted snowflakes causing slippery surfaces, posing a hazard to pedestrians and motorists (NWS 2009). Freezing Rain Freezing rain occurs when rain falls into areas that are below freezing. In order for this to occur, ground-level temperatures must be colder than temperatures aloft. Freezing rain can also occur when the air temperature is slightly above freezing but the surface that the rain lands upon is still below freezing from prior cold air temperatures (NWS 2009). Ice s An ice storm is an event caused by damaging accumulations of ice during freezing rain events. An ice storm involves significant accumulation of rain or drizzle freezing on objects (trees, power lines, roadways, etc.) as it strikes them, causing slippery surfaces and damage from sheer weight of ice accumulations (NWS 2009). Significant ice accumulations are typically 0.25 inch or greater (National Weather Service [NWS] 2013). Extent The magnitude or severity of a severe winter storm depends on several factors, including a region s climatological susceptibility to snowstorms, snowfall amounts, snowfall rates, wind speeds, temperatures, visibility, storm duration, topography, time of occurrence during the day (for example, weekday versus weekend), and time of season. While sleet accumulation is measured and tracked in a method similar to snow events, the extent or severity of freezing rain or an ice storm requires a different and sometimes more challenging process. According to NWS, ice accumulation does not coat the surface of an object evenly, as gravity typically forces rainwater to the underside of an object before it freezes. Wind can also force rainwater downward prior to freezing, resulting in a thicker coating of ice on one side of the object than the other side. Ice mass is then determined by taking the average from the thickest and thinnest portions of ice on the sample used for measurement. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration s (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) produces the Regional Snowfall Index (RSI) for significant snowstorms that impact the eastern two-thirds of the United States. The RSI ranks snowstorm impacts on a scale from Category 1 to 5, which is similar to the Enhanced Fujita scale for tornadoes or the Saffir-Simpson scale for hurricanes. RSI is based on the spatial extent of the storm, the amount of snowfall, and the combination of the extent and snowfall totals with population (based on the 2000 Census). The NCDC has analyzed and assigned RSI values to over 500 storms since 1900 (NOAA-NCDC 2018). Table explains the five RSI ranking categories. Table Regional Snowfall Index Ranking Categories Category Description 1 Notable 2 Significant 3 Major 4 Crippling 5 Extreme Source: NOAA-NCDC Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

3 NWS operates a widespread network of observation systems, such as geostationary satellites, Doppler radars, and automated surface observing systems that feed into the current state-of-the-art numerical computer models to provide a look into future weather, ranging from hours to days. The models are then analyzed by NWS meteorologists who then write and disseminate forecasts (NWS 2013). While winter weather is normal during the winter season for Otsego County, the NWS uses winter weather watches, warnings, and advisories to help people anticipate what to expect in the days and hours prior to an approaching storm. A winter storm watch is issued when severe winter conditions (heavy snow, ice, etc.) may affect a certain area, but its occurrence, location, and timing are uncertain. A watch is issued to provide 24 to 72 hours of notice of the possibility of severe winter weather. A winter storm warning is issued when hazardous winter weather, in the form of heavy snow, heavy freezing rain, or heavy sleet, is imminent or occurring. A warning is usually issued 12 to 24 hours before the event is expected to begin. A winter weather advisory is issued when a hazardous winter weather event is occurring, is imminent, or has a greater than 80 percent chance of occurrence. Advisories are used to inform people that winter weather conditions are expected to cause significant inconveniences and that conditions may be hazardous. These conditions may refer to sleet, freezing rain, or ice storms, in addition to snow events. NWS may also issue a blizzard warning when snow and strong winds combine to produce the potential for blinding snow, deep drifts, and wind chill (NWS n.d.). Location As indicated in the 2014 NYS HMP, communities in New York State receive more snow than most other communities in the nation. Figure shows the average annual snowfall across NYS and Otsego County. The average annual snowfall in Otsego County ranges from less than 60 inches annually in the southwestern portion of the county to inches in the northeastern part of the County (NYS DHSES 2014). Figure , an annual average snowfall map, illustrates the annual average snowfall totals over a 50-year period for New York State. The average annual snowfall map shows areas that are consistently subject to a risk for large quantities of snow (NYS DHSES 2014). Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

4 Figure Annual Average Snowfall for New York State Source: NYS HMP 2014 Note: Otsego County is indicated on the map by a red circle. The annual average snow accumulation in Otsego County is either inches, or less than 60 inches. Based on data from , Otsego County can anticipate 6 7 days with freezing rain per year with the northwest side of the County seeing a higher amount and the southeast side seeing a lower amount (Changnon & Karl 2003). Based on data from , the County can anticipate total hours of freezing rain per year (Changnon 2004). Previous Occurrences and Losses Many sources provided historical information regarding previous occurrences and losses associated with extreme temperatures throughout New York State and Otsego County; therefore, the loss and impact information for many events could vary depending on the source. The accuracy of monetary figures discussed is based only on the available information in cited sources. FEMA Major Disasters and Emergency Declarations Between 1954 and October 2018, FEMA included New York State in 25 winter storm-related major disaster (DR) or emergency (EM) declarations classified as one or a combination of the following disaster types: severe winter storm, snowstorm, snow, ice storm, winter storm, blizzard, and flooding. Generally, these disasters cover a wide region of the State; therefore, they may have impacted many counties. Otsego County was included in five of these declarations (two DR and three EM). See Table Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

5 Table Related Disaster (DR) and Emergency (EM) Declarations 1954 to August 2018 Declaration Event Date Declaration Date Event Description EM-3107 April 13 17, 1993 March 17, 1993 Snow: severe blizzard EM-3173 December 25, 2002 January 4, February 25, 2003 Snow: snowstorms 2003 DR-1467 April 3-5, 2003 May 12, 2003 Severe Ice : ice storm EM-3299 December 11 31, 2008 December 18, 2008 Severe : severe winter storm DR-4322 March 14 15, 2017 July 12, 2017 Snow: severe winter storm and snowstorm Source: FEMA 2018 U.S. Department of Agriculture Disaster Declarations The Secretary of Agriculture from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) is authorized to designate counties as disaster areas to make emergency loans to producers suffering losses in those counties and in counties that are contiguous to a designated county. Between 2012 and 2018, Otsego County was included in two USDA declarations related to severe winter weather, both involving cold. S March 2012 Frosts and freezes S September 2016 Frosts and freezes Details on these and other events are provided in Table immediately below. Table USDA Crop Losses from Severe s in Otsego County, Year Crop Type Cause of Loss Losses 2014 Corn Cold Wet Weather $3, Corn Other (Snow, Lightning, Etc.) $ Corn Other (Snow, Lightning, Etc.) $ Soybeans Cold Wet Weather $10, Corn Cold Wet Weather $ Total $11, Source: USDA 2018 Note: The loss of $-2.58 was noted in USDA records. As it was not clear what that figure indicated, it was left out of the total losses. The New York State HMP also documents historical winter storm events by county. Between 1960 and 2012, Otsego County had 487 winter storm events and resulted in 14 fatalities, 87 injuries, nearly $27.5 million in property damage and over $231,000 in crop damage (NYS DHSES 2014). However, according to the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Events Database, Otsego County experienced 89 winter weather events between 1950 and August 2018, including 52 heavy snow events, 11 ice storms, 22 winter storms, and 2 winter weather events. Table Severe Events in Otsego County 1950 to 2018 Number of Occurrences Hazard Type Between 1950 and August 2018 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Blizzard Heavy Snow K 0 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

6 Number of Occurrences Hazard Type Between 1950 and August 2018 Total Fatalities Total Injuries Total Property Damage ($) Total Crop Damage ($) Ice M 0 Lake-Effect Snow Sleet Weather TOTAL M 0 Source: NOAA-NCEI 2018; NHC 2018 Notes: K: thousand M: million Because documentation for New York State and Otsego County winter storms is so extensive, not all sources have been identified or researched. Therefore, Table may not include all events that have occurred in the County. For this 2018 HMP Update, known major winter storm events that have impacted Otsego County between 2012 and 2018 are identified in Table For events prior to 2012, refer to Appendix X. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

7 Table Events Impacting Otsego County between 2012 and 2018 Date(s) of Event December 26, 2012 December 29, 2012 February 8, 2013 December 14, 2013 January 1, 2014 February 5, 2014 February 13, 2014 November 26, 2014 February 1, 2015 Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? Losses / Impacts N/A N/A A low-pressure system tracked from the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday to just off of the New Jersey coast on Thursday to the Canadian Maritimes on Friday. Northwest flow pulled cold and moist air behind the system with a widespread snow falling across central New York on Wednesday and Thursday. Snowfall amounts across the county ranged from 7 to 9 inches. N/A N/A A low-pressure system tracked from the Midwest on Friday to the mid-atlantic states on Saturday. Moisture and cold air associated with this system spread snow into portions of central New York on Saturday. Snowfall amounts across the county ranged from 5 to 8 inches. Heavy Snow DR-4111 No A northern system passed over our region while merging with a coastal storm, yielding a period heavy snowfall across the region late February 8 into early February 9, Snow amounts generally ranged from 5 to 11 inches. Highest amounts were 11.0 inches near Cherry Valley, and 9.0 inches near Unadilla and Worcester. N/A N/A A low-pressure system developed over the southern Plains on December 13th and intensified as it headed toward the northeast U.S. A coastal low developed along the Atlantic seaboard on December 15th. Warm advection snow developed on the morning of Saturday, December 14th along a stationary boundary stretched across the Mason-Dixon line and dropped an initial 1 to 3 inches of snow. As the low-pressure system intensified, it produced moderate to heavy snowfall across the western Catskills and the upper Susquehanna Region of New York. The highest snowfall was reported in Masonville in Delaware County and Oneonta in Otsego County with 12 inches of snow reported at each location. N/A N/A A stalled frontal boundary across central New York resulted in light to moderate snowfall across central New York falling during the afternoon hours of Wednesday, January 1st. This snow intensified during the overnight and early morning hours of Thursday, January 2nd as a low-pressure system tracked through the Ohio Valley and re-developed off of the eastern seaboard. Snowfall amounts ranged from 7-12 inches across the county. Windy conditions resulted in significant blowing snow and cold temperatures. N/A N/A A low-pressure system tracked through the Ohio Valley and re-developed off of the eastern seaboard during the morning hours of Wednesday, February 5th. An intense snow band that developed produced as much as one to three inches of snow per hour during the early morning hours. Snowfall amounts ranged from 8-13 inches across the county. The highest amount of 13 inches fell in Unadilla. N/A N/A A low-pressure system tracked out of the Gulf of Mexico and along the eastern seaboard on Thursday, February 13th bringing snowfall to the region. Snowfall amounts ranged from 4-12 inches across the county. The highest amount of 12 inches fell in Worcester and 2 miles east of Oneonta. DR-4204 No A low-pressure system developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico and intensified as it headed toward the northeast U.S. A coastal low developed along the Atlantic seaboard on November 26 th. This system spread snow, heavy at times, into the western Catskills, the Susquehanna Region, and Southern Tier of New York during the afternoon hours of Wednesday, November 26 th. Snowfall amounts ranged from 7-11 inches across the county. The highest amount of 11 inches fell in Cooperstown. Heavy Snow N/A N/A A winter storm tracked from the central Plains on Sunday February 1st to the upper Ohio Valley and western Pennsylvania by Monday morning the 2nd. The storm then moved east off the New Jersey coast and out to sea by Monday evening. This storm spread snow to central New York during the evening hours of the 1st. The snow lasted through the overnight and tapered to snow showers by Monday afternoon. The Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

8 Date(s) of Event February 8, 2015 November 19, 2016 February 12, 2017 March 14, 2017 Event Type FEMA Declaration Number County Designated? Losses / Impacts winter storm brought a general 9 to 13 inches of snow. The highest snowfall was recorded near Oneonta with 13 inches. Heavy Snow N/A N/A A frontal system stalled from northern New England and northern New York southwest to southern Missouri Sunday February 8th. Low pressure tracked along this front Sunday night and Monday morning the 9th as it moved south of the region. The low reached the Middle Atlantic States by Monday afternoon and eventually moved to the southeast away from central New York. This low and frontal system brought a widespread snow to north central New York State beginning Sunday afternoon the 8th and ending by Monday evening the 9 th. Snowfall accumulations averaged between 7 and 10 inches. Lake-Effect Snow N/A N/A A strong cold front crossed central New York on Saturday afternoon the 19 th. Much colder air followed this front and was accompanied by several inches of snow, especially over the higher terrain. A slowmoving upper air low, which followed this front, slowly tracked across New York into northern New England from Sunday the 20 th to Tuesday the 22 nd. A northwest flow of cold moist air around this upper level low combined with moisture from the Great Lakes leading to a prolonged period of heavy lake-effect snow. The lake-effect snow affected an unusually large part of central New York including the southern tier counties, which typically do not see heavy lake-effect snow. Hardest hit areas in central New York saw between 2 and 3 feet of snow over a 4-day period between November 19th and 22 nd. The heaviest lakeeffect snow affected the southern tier region on Sunday afternoon and night and then affected areas between Binghamton and Syracuse Monday into Monday night. All the snow tapered down on Tuesday the 22 nd by midday. Snowfall totals ranged from 10 to 20 inches in most of the County. Heavy Snow N/A N/A A winter storm tracked from the Ohio Valley across Pennsylvania to off the southern New England coast from the early morning hours of the 12 th to the 13 th. The storm brought heavy snow to portions of central and north central New York on the 12 th with lake-effect snow in its wake until the afternoon of the 13 th. Snowfall accumulations ranged from 7 to 9 inches with the highest amount in Cooperstown. Heavy Snow DR-4322 Yes A major winter storm developed over eastern North Carolina during the early morning hours of March 14 th. The winter storm tracked northeast during the day on the 14 th reaching the Gulf of Maine by the late evening of the 14 th. This storm spread a heavy record breaking snowstorm to a large part of central New York and northeast Pennsylvania with blizzard conditions from the Catskills in New York to the Poconos of northeast Pennsylvania and in the greater Scranton Wilkes-Barre area. The snow spread from south to north across northeast Pennsylvania and central New York between midnight and 6 am on the 14 th. The snow quickly became very heavy especially east of a Rome, New York to Towanda, Pennsylvania Line. Snowfall rates reached up to 5 inches per hour. The heavy snow continued through the day on the 14 th and tapered off by late evening in most of northeast Pennsylvania but continued through the 15 th as moisture from Lake Ontario combined with northwest winds behind the storm to prolong snowfall for central New York and the far northern tier of eastern Pennsylvania. Snowfall ranged between 3 and 4 feet inches in Otsego County. Sources: NOAA-NCDC 2018; FEMA 2018 Notes: FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency mph Miles per hour N/A Not applicable Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

9 Probability of Future Occurrences Based on historical snow-related disaster declarations, New York State can expect a snow storm of disasterdeclaration proportions, on average, once every 3 to 5 years. Similarly, ice storms of disaster proportions are expected to occur once every 7 to 10 years within the State (NYS DHSES 2014). Otsego County is estimated to continue experiencing direct and indirect impacts of severe winter storms annually. Table provides the probability of occurrences of severe winter storm events. However, the information used to calculate the probability of occurrences is only based on NOAA-NCEI storm events database results. Table Probability of Occurrence of Severe Events Hazard Type Number of Occurrences Between 1950 and August 2018 Recurrence Interval (years) Percent Chance of Occurring in Any Given Year Blizzard Heavy Snow Ice Lake-Effect Snow Sleet Weather Total % Source: NOAA-NCEI 2018 Note: Probability was calculated using the available data provided in the NOAA-NCDC storm events database. * Greater than 100 percent is shown as 100 percent. In Section 5.3, the identified hazards of concern for Otsego County are ranked using a variety of parameters. The probability of occurrence, or likelihood of the event, is one parameter used for hazard rankings. Based on historical records and input from the Planning Partnership, the probability of occurrence for severe winter storms in the County is considered frequent (likely to occur within 25 years, as presented in Table 5.3-1). Climate Change Impacts Each region in New York State, as defined by ClimAID, has attributes that will be affected by climate change. Otsego County is part of Region 3, which includes the Southern Tier of New York. Some of the issues in this region that are affected by climate change include the dairy dominating agricultural economy, milk production losses projected, increased Susquehanna River flooding, and first portion of the State to be impacted by invasive species moving north (NYSERDA 2014). Temperatures are expected to increase throughout the State, by 2 to 3.4ºF by the 2020s, 4.1 to 6.8 F by the 2050s, and 5.3 to 10.1 F by the 2080s. Annual average precipitation is projected to increase by 1 percent to up to 8 percent by the 2020s, from 3 percent to up to 12 percent by the 2050s, and from 4 percent to up to 15 percent by the 2080s. By the end of the century, the greatest increases in precipitation are projected to be in the northern parts of the State. Although seasonal projections are less certain than annual results, this additional precipitation will most likely occur during the winter months. However, with temperatures rising, some of the increased winter precipitation may fall as rain as opposed to snow. In Region 3, the number of days with temperature below 32 F is projected to drop from days in the 2020s to days in the 2080s, reducing the likelihood of precipitation falling as snow. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

10 New York State is already experiencing the effects of climate change during the winter season. Annual ice cover has decreased 71 percent on the Great Lakes since This decrease may lead to increased lake-effect snow in Otsego County in the next two decades through greater moisture availability. By mid-century, however, lakeeffect snow will generally decrease as temperatures below freezing become less frequent (NYSERDA 2014). snow cover is decreasing, and spring weather is seen, on average, about one week earlier than a few years ago. Night-time temperatures are measurably warmer, even during the colder months (NYSDEC Date Unknown). Overall winter temperatures in New York State are almost 5 F warmer than in 1970 (NYSDEC Date Unknown). The State has seen a decrease in the number of cold winter days (below 32 F) and can expect to see a decrease in snow cover by as much as 25 to 50 percent by end of the next century. The lack of snow cover may jeopardize winter sport businesses offering skiing, snowmobiling, and other types of winter recreation. Natural ecosystems will be affected by the changing snow cover (Cornell University College of Agriculture and Life Sciences 2011) Vulnerability Assessment All of Otsego County is exposed to the severe winter storm hazard; therefore, all assets in the County (population, structures, critical facilities, and lifelines), as described in the County Profile (Section 4), are potentially vulnerable to a severe winter storm event. The following summarizes the estimated potential impacts of severe winter storm events on the County. Impact on Life, Health, and Safety According to the NOAA National Severe s Laboratory (NSSL), winter weather indirectly and deceptively kills hundreds of people in the United States every year, primarily from automobile accidents, overexertion, and exposure. storms are often accompanied by strong winds creating blizzard conditions with blinding wind-driven snow, drifting snow, extreme cold temperatures, and dangerous wind chill. They are considered deceptive killers because most deaths, impacts, or losses are indirectly related to the storm. People may die in traffic accidents on icy roads, from heart attacks while shoveling snow, or of hypothermia from prolonged exposure to cold. Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees, electrical wires, telephone poles and lines, and communication towers. Communications and power can be disrupted for days while utility companies work to repair the extensive damage. Even small accumulations of ice may cause extreme hazards to motorists and pedestrians. Bridges and overpasses are particularly dangerous because they freeze before other surfaces (NSSL 2006). For the purposes of this HMP, the entire population of Otsego County (60,979) is exposed to severe winter storm events (U.S. Census 2016 ACS 5-Year Population Estimate). Snow accumulation and frozen or slippery road surfaces increase the frequency and impact of traffic accidents, which may result in personal injuries. Refer to Section 4 (County Profile) which includes population statistics for each participating municipality. The elderly population is considered most susceptible to this hazard because of their increased risk of injuries and death from falls, overexertion, or hypothermia from attempts to clear snow and ice and possible reliance on power that may be lost during a severe winter storm event. In addition, severe winter storm events can reduce the ability of these populations to access emergency services. Residents with low incomes may not have access to housing, or their housing may be less able to withstand cold temperatures (for example, homes with poor insulation and heating supply). More information about extreme cold temperatures can be found in Section (Risk Assessment Extreme Temperature). Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

11 Impact on General Building Stock The entire general building stock inventory in Otsego County is exposed and potentially vulnerable to the severe winter storm hazard; however, properties in poor condition or in particularly vulnerable locations may be at risk to the most damage. In general, structural impacts include damage to roofs and building frames rather than building content. Table presents the total exposure value for general building stock for each participating municipality (structure only). Current modeling tools are not available to estimate specific losses for this hazard. As an alternate approach, the percent damage to structures that could result from severe winter storm conditions is considered. This allows planners and emergency managers to select a range of potential economic impact based on an estimate of the percent of damage to the general building stock. Table summarizes the estimated loss to structures as a result of 1 percent, 5 percent, and 10 percent loss. Given professional knowledge and the currently available information, the potential loss for this hazard is many times considered to be overestimated because of varying factors (building structure type, age, load distribution, building codes in place, etc.). Therefore, the following information should be used as estimates only for planning purposes with the knowledge that the associated losses for severe winter storm events vary greatly. Table General Building Stock Exposure (Structure Only) and Estimated Potential Losses from Severe Events in Otsego County Municipality Total RCV (Structure only) 1% Damage Loss Estimate 5% Damage Loss Estimate 10% Damage Loss Estimate Burlington (T) $109,432,000 $1,094,320 $5,471,600 $10,943,200 Butternuts (T) $139,578,000 $1,395,780 $6,978,900 $13,957,800 Cherry Valley (T) $102,461,000 $1,024,610 $5,123,050 $10,246,100 Cherry Valley (V) $73,174,000 $731,740 $3,658,700 $7,317,400 Cooperstown (V) $486,849,000 $4,868,490 $24,342,450 $48,684,900 Decatur (T) $40,650,000 $406,500 $2,032,500 $4,065,000 Edmeston (T) $189,676,000 $1,896,760 $9,483,800 $18,967,600 Exeter (T) $82,264,000 $822,640 $4,113,200 $8,226,400 Gilbertsville (V) $37,165,000 $371,650 $1,858,250 $3,716,500 Hartwick (T) $183,032,000 $1,830,320 $9,151,600 $18,303,200 Laurens (T) $192,321,000 $1,923,210 $9,616,050 $19,232,100 Laurens (V) $54,412,000 $544,120 $2,720,600 $5,441,200 Maryland (T) $182,523,000 $1,825,230 $9,126,150 $18,252,300 Middlefield (T) $277,204,000 $2,772,040 $13,860,200 $27,720,400 Milford (T) $273,617,000 $2,736,170 $13,680,850 $27,361,700 Milford (V) $45,358,000 $453,580 $2,267,900 $4,535,800 Morris (T) $108,546,000 $1,085,460 $5,427,300 $10,854,600 Morris (V) $67,740,000 $677,400 $3,387,000 $6,774,000 New Lisbon (T) $96,126,000 $961,260 $4,806,300 $9,612,600 Oneonta (C) $1,405,109,000 $14,051,090 $70,255,450 $140,510,900 Oneonta (T) $766,220,000 $7,662,200 $38,311,000 $76,622,000 Otego (T) $139,270,000 $1,392,700 $6,963,500 $13,927,000 Otego (V) $111,446,000 $1,114,460 $5,572,300 $11,144,600 Otsego (T) $332,628,000 $3,326,280 $16,631,400 $33,262,800 Pittsfield (T) $94,458,000 $944,580 $4,722,900 $9,445,800 Plainfield (T) $65,241,000 $652,410 $3,262,050 $6,524,100 Richfield (T) $108,643,000 $1,086,430 $5,432,150 $10,864,300 Richfield Springs (V) $123,746,000 $1,237,460 $6,187,300 $12,374,600 Roseboom (T) $68,056,000 $680,560 $3,402,800 $6,805,600 Springfield (T) $176,899,000 $1,768,990 $8,844,950 $17,689,900 Unadilla (T) $251,889,000 $2,518,890 $12,594,450 $25,188,900 Unadilla (V) $108,539,000 $1,085,390 $5,426,950 $10,853,900 Westford (T) $74,169,000 $741,690 $3,708,450 $7,416,900 Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

12 Municipality Total RCV (Structure only) 1% Damage Loss Estimate 5% Damage Loss Estimate 10% Damage Loss Estimate Worcester (T) $229,322,000 $2,293,220 $11,466,100 $22,932,200 Otsego County (Total) $6,797,763,000 $67,977,630 $339,888,150 $679,776,300 Source: HAZUS-MH v4.2 Notes: RCV Replacement Cost Value Impact on Critical Facilities Full functionality of critical facilities such as police, fire, and medical facilities is essential for response during and after a severe winter storm event. These critical facility structures are largely constructed of concrete and masonry; therefore, they should only suffer minimal structural damage from severe winter storm events. Because power interruption can occur, backup power is recommended. Infrastructure at risk for this hazard includes roadways that could be damaged from the application of salt and intermittent freezing and warming conditions that can damage roads over time. Severe snowfall requires clearing of roadways and alerting of citizens to dangerous conditions; following the winter season, resources for road maintenance and repair are required. Impact on the Economy The cost of snow and ice removal, and road repair due to the freezing and thawing process can drain local financial resources. The economy is also impacted by loss of commuters traveling into or out of the area for work or school. The loss of power and closure of roads prevents the commuter population from traveling to work within and outside of the County. Heavy accumulations of ice can bring down trees and power lines, disabling electric power and communications for days or weeks. Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, shutting down all air and rail transportation and disrupting medical and emergency services. The economic impact of winter weather each year is huge, with costs for snow removal, damage repair, and loss of business in the millions (NSSL 2006). Future Changes that May Impact Vulnerability Understanding future changes that impact vulnerability in the County can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place. The County considered the following factors to examine potential conditions that may affect hazard vulnerability: Potential or projected development Projected changes in population Other identified conditions as relevant and appropriate, including the impacts of climate change. Projected Development As discussed in Sections 4 and 9, areas targeted for future growth and development have been identified across the County. Any areas of growth could be potentially impacted by the severe winter storm hazard because the entire planning area is exposed and vulnerable. Current New York State land use and building codes incorporate standards that address and mitigate snow accumulation. Some local municipalities in the County have implemented the following activities to eliminate loss of life and property and infrastructure damages during winter storm events: Remove of snow from roadways. Remove of dead trees and trim trees/brush from roadways to lessen falling limbs and trees. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York

13 Ensure proper road signs are visible and installed properly. Bury electrical and telephone utility lines to minimize downed lines. Remove debris/obstructions in waterways and develop routine inspections/maintenance plans to reduce potential flooding. Replace substandard roofs of critical facilities to reduce exposure to airborne germs resulting from leakage. Purchase and install backup generators in evacuation facilities and critical facilities to essential services to residents. Install cell towers in areas where limited telecommunication is available to increase emergency response and cell phone coverage (NYS DHSES, 2014). Projected Changes in Population According to population projections from the Cornell Program on Applied Demographics, Otsego County will experience a continual population decrease through 2040 (approximately 3,700 people in total by 2040). This decrease will reduce the overall vulnerability of the County s population over time. While less people will reside in the County, populations may move into more densely populated areas of the County, which will increase the need for Public Works and Highway Departments to maintain and treat the roadways in these areas due to the increased travel need. Refer to Section (Population Trends) in the County Profile for a discussion on population trends for the County. Climate Change As discussed earlier, it is uncertain how climate change will influence extreme winter storm events; initially the region may experience an increase in lake-effect snow due to increased moisture availability from decreasing ice cover on the Great Lakes, while by mid-century, the region may see a decrease in snow due to less frequent temperatures below freezing (NYSERDA, 2014). With a potential for more frequent lake-effect snow events over the next two decades, the County s assets will be at risk to the impacts of more frequent severe winter storm events. An increase in the frequency and severity of severe winter storms may result in an increase of snow loads on the County s building stock and infrastructure, putting each building at risk for structural damage. More frequent and severe events will also result in increased resources being spent to prepare for and clean-up after an event. However, as winter temperatures continue to rise, the increase in precipitation is likely to occur during the winter months as rain. Increased rain on snowpack or frozen or saturated soils may lead to increased flooding and related impacts on the County s assets. Change of Vulnerability Overall, the County s vulnerability to the severe winter storm hazard remains unchanged since the 2013 HMP; Otsego County is estimated to continue experiencing direct and indirect impacts of severe winter storms annually. Hazard Mitigation Plan Otsego County, New York