California Coastal Fog: An Untapped and Little-known Water Resource?

Transcription

1 California Coastal Fog: An Untapped and Little-known Water Resource? Photo : Kevin Simonin, SFSU California Adaptation Forum August 20, 2014

2 Today s speakers Prof. Ian C Faloona Alicia Torregrosa Travis O Brien Prof. Dan Fernandez What is fog? Why does it matter? How might it change? How can we adapt? 2

3 We d like to get to know our audience 3

4 How many of you have a degree in or related to science? 4

5 Are you an elected official or do you work for an elected official? 5

6 Before seeing this presentation, have you considered the impact that fog could have on climate?? 6

7 Before today have you considered the impact that climate change could have on fog?? 7

8 1. Questionnaires on your seat 2. Index cards to write out your questions for speakers to address during question period at the end 8

9 What is Fog? The air apparent or extremist Ian Faloona Professor of Atmospheric Science Dept. of Land, Air, & Water Resources University of California Davis

10 Different Views of Fog: Satellite 10

11 Different Views of Fog: Hilltop Animation [Fosberg & Schroeder, 1966] 11

12 Fog in Motion 12

13 Photo by Dave Gordon 13

14 Different Views of Fog: Marin Headlands Photo by Dave Gordon 14

15 The Majesty and Awe-Inspiring Nature of Fog Fog Bridge by Fujiko SF Exploratorium,

16 Hadley Cell Connects Tropics to Midlatitudes 16

17 Descending (Subsiding) Air is Dry and Warm Warm & Dry Air Mid-Lat it ude High Pressure

18 Winds Along the West Coast 18

19 Flow restricted by Coast Range Warm & Dry Air Typical depth of marine layer along the coast in the summertime is m. It is so shallow because of the strong subsiding air that pushes from above, and consequently cannot penetrate inland very far because of the topography of the Coast Range.

20 Coastal Wind & Ocean Upwelling stronger wind Offshore water transport due to Earth s rotation Upwelling 20

21 Coastal Ocean Temperatures 21

22 Marine stratocumulus climatically very important

23 Surface Solar Radiation (28-Jul to 4-Aug) Dark = shaded by clouds; Bright = clear skies 23

24 Clouds & Radiative Budget Earth s albedo ~ 30% (15-20% due to clouds) Cloud forcing (W/m 2 ) Net radiation Cloud-free conditions Global influence est.: -13 to -21 W/m 2, net cooling (~ 4W/m 2 for CO 2 doubling)

25 Why does fog matter? 25

26 Aviation Industry Fog at SFO reduces aircraft landings from 60 to 30 per hour Real-time forecasts 26

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28 Photo by Robert Cameron 28

29 Radiation Flux credit:

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31 Pt. Reyes San Francisco San Jose Monterey Bay 31

32 Landsat July 29, 2010 Landsat August 22,

33 MWAT (C) Redwood Creek, REDW, Maximum Weekly Average Stream Temperature Inland infrequent fog Fish Kill Near coast frequent

34 How much does fog influence coastal creek hydrology? Low Flow Fish Rescue Photo: Mel Wright, 34

35 Fog lowers the evaporative demand by lowering temperature and increasing humidity 35

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38 Who benefits from fog? Coast Redwood and understory species Calflora.org 38

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40 Species found nowhere else Rare and endemic maritime chaparral & coastal species Piperia yadonii One of the rarest orchids of North America More than 60 species of manzanita, many in very restricted locales, several federally listed Montara Manzanita Photo: Sandy Steinman 40

41 Percent summertime (JJAS) fog cover for

42 Coefficient of Variation 42

43 Total Cloud Hours by Month by Site

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46 Water Shapes Civilizations Zibold s Air Well 46

47 Fog Harvesting Research Megaridis et al Brianna Frandrup 2012 Park et al

48 Liquid Water Content & Fog- Groundwater (using Isotopes) 48

49 Lives and Livelihood Threatened by Heat Waves 2006 July Heatwave Number of deaths attributed to the 11-day-old heat wave, by county Temperatures as of 4 p.m. Tuesday 80 o 90 o 100 o Authorities in Modesto found the bodies of two elderly men in separate apartments in the same housing complex. In addition to the human toll, officials said the heat has killed thousands of dairy cows in the Central Valley, depressed milk production, and put crops such as walnuts and peaches at risk. Source: County Coroners, FSA, USGS. Chronicle graphic by Joe Shoulak 49

50 Pt Arena Inland1 Mendocino Potter Valley Redwood Valley Pt Arena Inland2 Ukiah Hopland E Hopland Pt. Arena Mendo Mt Inland Cloverdale Gualala Healdsburg Mt. St Helena Pepperwood Calistoga Russian River 3 Santa Rosa Russian River 2 Russian River 1 St. Helena Jenner Cotati Mayacamas Crest Petaluma 1 Sonoma Mt Glen Ellen Bodega Head Napa Coastal Grasslands Sonoma Petaluma Tomales Bay Nicasio Mt. Wittenberg Petaluma Mouth Napa Mouth Pt. Reyes Each additional fog hour per day equals a temperature decrease of 0.4 o C, on average across sites. For Santa Rosa that s equal to 2100 projections. 50

51 Wine growers benefit

52 Fog Droplet Size Large droplets form from brine cores becoming smaller after chemical reactions such as with sulfates and other combustion products Tom Lee, Naval Research Lab, GOES derived fog size product.

53 Fog Droplet Size and Number GSU M. Scholl, USGS Monitoring Sites/Partners NRL - USGS WGSC - USGS Reston - GSU - Pepperwood - CSUMB - Naval RL - UC Davis - Bodega ML

54 Measuring Mercury in Fog Peter Weiss-Penzias 7 sites along CA coast from Trinidad Head to Big Sur 54

55 Difference in Tmax between 30 year averages ( ) minus ( ) Terrestrial Biodiversity Climate Change Collaborative (TBC3) 55

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57 How could fog change? How often When How thick How wet Chemical composition? 57

58 But first: Why is there fog along the coast in the first place? 58

59 A Larger view of fog 59

60 Fog is the edge of the Coast Range Central Valley Sierra Nevada stratocumulus deck Ocean Note: vertical scale is artistically rendered 60

61 So why the stratocumulus deck 3 ingredients: Cool ocean Warm, dry upper atmosphere (subsidence) Turbulence from cloud-top radiative cooling (!?) 61

62 1 km Cool ocean near West Coast Upper atmosphere Lower atmosphere Ocean 62

63 Subsidence 63

64 Turbulence (cloud-top radiative cooling) 64

65 What happens if subsidence weakens? (Why is there subsidence in the first place?) 65

66 What happens if subsidence weakens? 66

67 What about the ocean? Two possibilities: Global warming (warmer ocean) Increased upwelling (cooler near coast) 67

68 What if the ocean warms? 68

69 What if the ocean warms? 69

70 And upwelling? 70

71 And upwelling? 71

72 What have we observed? Warming Ocean (+ 2 o F) 72

73 What have we observed? Warming Ocean (+ 2 o F) Poleward expansion of Hadley Cells 73

74 What have we observed? Warming Ocean (+ 2 o F) Poleward expansion of Hadley Cells Less fog 74

75 What do climate models say about the future? (What is a climate model?) Climate models divide the atmosphere/ocean into boxes (~100 km) Track the movement of air, energy, water among boxes Predict changes due to increased CO 2 (and other anthropogenic forcings) 75

76 What do climate models say about the future? (What is a climate model?) Climate models divide the atmosphere/ocean into boxes (~100 km) Track the movement of air, energy, water among boxes Predict changes due to increased CO 2 (and other anthropogenic forcings) 76

77 What do climate models say about the future? Weaker subsidence 1 Wetter upper atmosphere Warmer ocean 2 Less stratocumulus 3 Less fog 4 1 Details may vary regionally 2 Current ocean models do not do well at upwelling 3 Not all models agree on this 4 So far there has only been one model study 77

78 Why no fog in most models? Low resolution Incomplete representation of turbulence 30 mi 78

79 Why don t we have a definitive answer? Cutting-edge models just now able to simulate fog Simulations available in next couple years BUT we lack fog data to validate the models We need more fog data! 79

80 One of my interest areas: harvesting water from fog. Some fog events at this site in Big Sur produce 5+ gallons of water per day per m 2

81 Can water extracted from fog meet our needs? 81

82 And 800,000+ people who live in the city of San Francisco (all of whom need water) 82

83 ~ 100 gallons of water needed per day per person (includes industrial use, but not agriculture) 100 gallons/day per person * 800,000 people = over 80 million gallons of water needed per day in San Francisco! 83

84 How much water can fog produce? 84

85 At best, 3 gallons every day per square meter of mesh 85

86 Consider a mesh draped along the Golden Gate Bridge! 86

87 Bridge width: 2.7 km Bridge tower height above water: 230 m Max possible area = 2700*230 = 620,000 square meters (about 740,000 square yards) 87

88 At the very best, this would produce about 2 million gallons of water per day. So, this very expensive, precarious and uncertain operation might produce 2% of San Francisco s water needs, though probably much less than that. 88

89 Fog water capture will not replace or even appreciably supplement our high demand for clean water However, 89

90 Given information presented already, fog is of enormous impact and importance to coastal ecosystems and the coastal way of life. 90

91 So, considerations of how to address impacts of possible changes in fog patterns under different scenarios are critical 91

92 Three General Scenarios Coastal fog decrease. Coastal fog increase. Coastal fog more or less consistent. 92

93 Areas we need to consider for adaptation in relation to fog changes Energy use and GHG accounting Agriculture Landscaping/Xeriscaping Automobile transportation infrastructure Water use Health Care Adaptation Residents versus tourists Aviation infrastructure Education and awareness 93

94 What is the impact of fog on energy costs associated with cooling in coastal regions? What would be the impact of a change in fog patterns? 94

95 Per Capita Energy Use by California County 95

96 Santa Cruz Sonoma County San Diego County Monterey County Ventura County Orange County Del Norte County Santa Barbara San Benito Riverside County Yuba County Alameda County San Bernardino Lake County Sacramento Solano County Sierra County Placer County Yolo County Contra Costa Shasta County Amador County Trinity County Siskiyou County Glenn County Plumas County Lassen County Colusa County Modoc County Per capita electricity usage, KwHr Coastal counties, average ~ 6400 KwHr/person Non-coastal counties, average ~ 9000 KwHr/person

97 With or without climate change, how can fog moisture potentially affect agriculture? 97

98 As but As so (if there were sufficient water) 98

99 Whether an or a in fog There would be need to be considerations of what crops are appropriate where, in addition to temperature change considerations. 99

100 Landscaping/Xeriscaping Multiple impacts. -Neighborhood development. -Erosion mitigation. -Road corridor beautification and reinforcement. Optimal foliage selection a function of fog abundance as well as regional temperature range. 100

101 Automobile transportation Integrate consideration of fog and other climate changes into CALtrans transplant plant selection tool

102 From San Jose Mercury News, February 7,

103 From San Jose Mercury News, February 7,

104 Number of deaths attributed to the 11-day-old heat wave, by county Temperatures as of 4 p.m. Tuesday 80 o 90 o 100 o Lives threatened by changes in fog Authorities in Modesto found the bodies of two elderly men in separate apartments in the same housing complex. As In addition to the human toll, officials said the heat has killed thousands of dairy cows in the Central Valley, depressed milk production, and put crops such as walnuts and peaches at risk. Heat-related deaths near coast Source: County Coroners, FSA, USGS. As Incidence of skin cancer Chronicle graphic by Joe Shoulak 104

105 Tourists versus Residents Tourism: Monterey County s 2 nd biggest industry. Many come to coastal CA to escape the heat. With less fog, but still cooler temperatures than inland, many more may choose to live along the coast rather than just visit. As 105

106 Impact of fog on SFO airplane arrival From: 106

107 Air Travel and Fog As As # and location of runways stays constant 107

108 Climate Adaptation and Education Fog can be used as a medium to garner greater public interest and education in the topic of our climate and how it is changing and to encourage behavior changes. 108

109 And, encourage infrastructure awareness 109

110 Fognet 110

111 Fog water collected from two different sites in Marina, CA 0.12 liters of fog water collected July 31, Aug. 1, Aug. 2,

112 Fog water collected from one site in Big Sur over a one day period, nearly 8 gallons! fog water collected, liters /16/10 6:00 pm 8/17/10 6:00 pm 112

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114 Blueprints for standard fog collector construction Blueprints created by former CSUMB student Trevor O Neil 114

115 Parts list 1 x 10 external diameter galvanized conduit. ¾ x 10 internal diameter galvanized conduit ½ x 10 Copper tubing ½ Copper Tubing 90 Degree Elbows 5/16 x 6 Galvanized Threaded 5/16 Nuts and washers 3 x4 Galvanized sheet 14 gauge x 500 Steel cable 3/8 Rebar stock 1/16 & 1//8 Wire Rope Clip 2.5 square meters of Coresa mesh Glues for pipes and tray vary between JB weld and Epoxy cements 115

116 From: Smart_Conservation_Quick_Guide.pdf 116

117 Addressed throughout the talk thus far, but I am sure there are more, dependent regionally! 2. Assess climate impacts and vulnerabilities. 117

118 But, changes in fog patterns and possible adaptation actions are not yet listed in Planning for Adaptive Communities or any other guidelines we are aware of. Identification of this as an issue and more research are needed! 4. Identify possible adaptation options 5. Evaluate and select adaptation actions 118

119 To be able to better assess the impacts of fog and develop thoughtful implementation of adaptation actions, we need to better understand the fog system and the ecological effects of its existence as well as its change! 6. Implement priority adaptation actions 119

120 Education, research and awareness The issue of changes in fog patterns not yet taken into consideration. Initiate and supplement longer-term studies of fog patterns and changes and integrate geophysical, hydrological, and ecological dimensions. 120

121 Implementation ideas Investment in research Citizen Science Initiative Partnerships with higher education (such as Sustainable Cities Year Program) 121

122 Engaging the community is essential to ensuring that adaptation policies and strategies can be adopted, that they are equitable, and that they can be implemented efficiently. from 2012 CA Adaptation Planning Guide, p. 9; nities.pdf 122

123 People do not resist change, they resist having change imposed on them and mandated from the top (Capra, 2014). 123

124 Questions?