Flood and Drought Monitoring using in situ data in Nigeria

Transcription

1 Flood and Drought Monitoring using in situ data in Nigeria United Nations/Germany International Conference International Cooperation Towards Low-Emission and Resilient Societies November 2017 Adamu James 2017 c o

2 2017 c o Introduction Drought and Flood early warning systems typically aim to track, assess and deliver relevant information concerning climatic, hydrologic and water supply conditions and trends. Ideally, they have both a monitoring (including impacts) and a forecasting component.

3 2017 c o Objective The objective is to provide timely information in advance of, or during, the early onset of drought to prompt action (via threshold triggers) within a drought risk management plan as a means of reducing potential impacts. A diligent, integrated, approach is vital for monitoring such a slow-onset hazard.

4 The Role of NIMET The (NIMET) drought and flood monitoring bulletin was developed based on the drought indices using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), it is aims at monitoring the intensity(degree of wetness or dryness), duration and spatial extent of a location within Nigeria using observed in situ data on 1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months timescale c o

5 3 RAINFALL ANOMALY OVER NIGERIA ( ) 2 RAINFALL ANOMALY Standardize Temperature Anomaly YEAR Temperature Anomaly over Nigeria Nigeria RAINFALL Poly. (RAINFALL) 2017 c o

6 STATION NETWORK DENSITY Nigeria is home to about 186 million people covering 923,000Sq KM 13 SO KT NG SH IS 8 IB AO 7 IJ ISIK BD 6 5 YE BI IL OS ONAK BE WR GU KN ZA KA JO MI AB LA MK LO OG EN OT AS IK OW AB UY PH CB EK BA EB PT JA YL MA 2017 c o

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8 YEL ILR SOK FEBRUARY - JULY, 2012 GUS MNA KAT ZAR KAD KAN BAU JOS MKDIBI NGU POT YOL MAI 4 OSH LOK EXTREME IBA 2 SEVERE IJB 1.5 LRF IKJ BNI ENU MODERATE 1 IKO MILD WAR OWE 0.5 PHC NORMAL CAL -0.5 MILD -1 MODERATE -1.5 SEVERE EXTREME WETNESS DRYNESS APRIL - SEPTEMBER, 2012 SOK KAT NGU GUS KAN POT MAI YEL ZAR KAD BAU JOS MNA YOL ILR IBI 8 MKD 4 OSH LOK EXTREME IBA 2 SEVERE IJB LRF IKJ 1.5 BNI ENU MODERATE 6 IKO 1 MILD WAR OWE 0.5 NORMAL PHC CAL -0.5 MILD 4-1 MODERATE SEVERE -2 EXTREME WETNESS DRYNESS MARCH - AUGUST, 2012 SOK KAT GUS KAN YEL ZAR KAD JOS MNA ILR OSH LOK MKD IBA IJB LRF IKJ BNI ENU IKO WAR OWE PHC CAL NGU POT BAU IBI MAI YOL OSH IBA IJB LRF IKJ YEL ILR SOK MAY - OCTOBER, 2012 BNI WAR GUS MNA LOK ZAR KAD ENU OWE PHC KAT KAN CAL BAU JOS IBI MKD EXTREME IKO NGU POT YOL WETNESS NORMAL DRYNESS MAI EXTREME 2 SEVERE 1.5 MODERATE 1 MILD MILD -1 MODERATE -1.5 SEVERE -2

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10 2012 Flood in Nigeria The unprecedented flood that ravaged parts of Nigeria between July and December 2012 Affected over 7 million people Displaced 2.3 million people Killed 363 persons Destroyed or damaged about 597,476 houses in 34 States. Total value of damage and losses across all sectors was estimated at N2.6 trillion ($16.9 billion). The overall impact of the flood on real GDP growth was estimated at 1.4 percent i.e. N570 billion in nominal terms (PDNA Report, 2012).

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13 2017 c o SEPTEMBER 2017 LATITUDE 14N 12N 10N 8N 6N 4N SOK SHK ISE OSGAdo IBA USI ABE OND AKU IJE IKE OSD BEN BID MIN ABU WAR LEGEND RAINFALL ANOMALY -140 GUS LOK ENU ASA AWK KAT ZAR KAD KAN DUT BELOW NORMAL NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL 2N 2E 4E 6E 8E 10E 12E 14E JOS LAF OGJ ABK LONGITUDE BAU NGU POT GOM JAL YOL Mai OWE Normal defined by the tolerance UYO CAL of ±20 departure LATITUDE N 12N 10N 8N 6N 4N YEL SOK SHK ISE OSGAdo IBA USI ABE OND AKU IJE BEN LEGEND 140 GUS BID MIN ABU WAR 100 RAINFALL ANOMALY LOK ZAR KAD ENU ASA AWK KAT ABK OWE UMUUYO CAL EKT KAN DUT JOS LAF MAK ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL BELOW NORMAL 2N 2E 4E 6E 8E 10E 12E 14E 0 LONGITUDE BAU -20 NGU GOM -60 JAL -100 YOL Normal defined by the tolerance of ±0.5 departure -140 LATITUDE 14N 12N 10N 8N 6N 4N YEL SOK RAINFALL ANOMALY GUS BID MIN ABU ZAR KAD KAN DUT BELOW NORMAL NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL 2N 2E 4E 6E 8E 10E 12E 14E JOS LONGITUDE BAU NGU POT GOM YOL MAI SHK ILO LAF JAL ISE MAK OSG LOK IBA USI OND AKU IJE OGJ ENU BEN ABK ASA AWK IKO WAR OWE Normal defined by the tolerance UMUUYO PHC CAL of ±20 departure. EKT LEGEND

14 2017 c o Dry Matter Availability September, 2017

15 2017 c o AUGUST 3 rd Dekad, 2017

16 2017 c o Merged data September, 2017

17 2017 c o

18 The need for satellite data to support in situ data 1. Spatial resolution to fill the gaps 2. Temporal resolution LATITUDE 14N 12N 10N 8N 6N YEL SOK RAINFALL ANOMALY GUS BID MIN ABU ZAR KAD KAN DUT JOS BAU NGU POT GOM YOL MAI SHK ILO LAF JAL ISE MAK OSG LOK IBA USI OND AKU IJE OGJ ENU BEN ABK ASA AWK IKO WAR OWE Normal defined by the tolerance UMUUYO PHC CAL of ±20 departure. EKT 4N LEGEND BELOW NORMAL NORMAL ABOVE NORMAL 2N 2E 4E 6E 8E 10E 12E 14E LONGITUDE c o

19 2017 c o nimetnigeria(facebook) nimetnigeria (instagram)

20 Thank you