Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016

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1 Pre-Season Run Size Forecasts: Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2016 Fisheries and Oceans Canada Pêches et Océans Canada S. Grant & B. MacDonald FRAFS FORUM meeting March

Early Stuart Early Stuart Early Summer Bowron Fennell Gates Nadina Pitt Scotch Seymour Early Shuswap Miscellaneous Taseko Miscellaneous** Chilliwack miscellaneous Nahatlach miscellaneous Summer

2 Early Stuart Early Stuart Early Summer Bowron Fennell Gates Nadina Pitt Scotch Seymour Early Shuswap Miscellaneous Taseko Miscellaneous** Chilliwack miscellaneous Nahatlach miscellaneous Summer Chilko Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Raft Late June to Early-July Late-July to Early-Aug Early-to- Mid-Aug. Harrison North Thompson River Miscellaneous North Thompson Tributaries Miscellaneous Widgeon miscellaneous Fraser Timing Late Cultus Late Shuswap (Adams River) Portage Weaver Birkenhead Non-Shuswap miscellaneous Mid-Aug. 2

3 Factors influencing total returns Age of Maturity # Adult Spawners Survival Brood Year Escapement 3

Age of Maturity Marine 2 Winters May-June

4 Age of Maturity Marine 2 Winters May-June 2014 Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds Freshwater 2 Winters June-October 2014 First Winter 2015 Second Winter 2016 Brood Year July-Oct 2012 April-May 2013 July-Oct 2016 April-May 2014 Return: 4 yrs 4

5 Brood Year Escapement: Index of the Number of Eggs 5

6 # Adult Spawners Four Year Old Brood Year: 2012 Run timing group Stocks 2012 Brood Year (Age-4) Early Stuart 6,800 2% Early Summer effective female spawners Bowron 30 Fennell 700 Gates 6,900 Nadina 16,800 Pitt 41,400 Scotch 700 Seymour 300 Misc. (Chilliwack) 78,800 Pitt: 11% Chilliwack: 22% 40% smolts Summer Chilko j 11.4 M Quesnel 100 Late Stuart 31,800 Stellako 50,600 Harrison 32,900 Raft 1,700 Chilko: 25% Late Stuart: 9% Stellako: 14% Harrison: 9% 57% Late Cultus 63,600 Late Shuswap 10 Portage 10 Weaver 400 Birkenhead 2,500 1% 6

7 # Adult Spawners Five Year Old Brood Year: 2011 Run timing group Stocks 2011 Brood Year (Age-5) Early Stuart 200 0% Early Summer effective female spawners Bowron 2,000 Fennell 4,500 Gates 26,400 Nadina 1,200 Pitt 30,400 Scotch 12,500 Seymour 8,000 Misc. (Chilliwack) 2,500 11% smolts Summer Chilko j 43.2 M Quesnel 17,000 Late Stuart 800 Stellako 26,000 Harrison 78,000 Raft 4,400 Late Chilko: 53% Harrison: 9% (three year olds) 69% Cultus 119,800 Late Shuswap 46,000 Portage 300 Weaver 24,500 Birkenhead 92,400 Birkenhead: 11% 20% 7

8 Pitt Chilliwack Chilko Late Stuart Stellako Harrison Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart 6,800 Early Summer Bowron 30 Fennell 700 Gates 6,900 Nadina 16,800 Pitt 41,400 Scotch 700 Seymour 300 Misc. (Chilliwack) 78,800 Summer Chilko j 11.4 M Quesnel 100 Late Stuart 31,800 Stellako 50,600 Harrison 32,900 Raft 1,700 Late 2012 Brood Year (Age-4) 2011 Brood Year (Age-5) 200 2,000 4,500 26,400 1,200 30,400 12,500 8,000 2, M 17, ,000 78,000 4,400 Cultus 63,600 Late Shuswap 10 Portage 10 Weaver 400 Birkenhead 2, ,800 46, ,500 92,400 8

9 Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart 6,800 Early Summer 2012 Brood Year (Age-4) Bowron 30 Fennell 700 Gates 6,900 Nadina 16,800 Pitt 41,400 Scotch 700 Seymour 300 Misc. (Chilliwack) 78, Brood Year (Age-5) 200 2,000 4,500 26,400 1,200 30,400 12,500 8,000 2,500 Five Year Olds Bowron Pitt Scotch Seymour Summer Chilko j 11.4 M Quesnel 100 Late Stuart 31,800 Stellako 50,600 Harrison 32,900 Raft 1,700 Late 43.2 M 17, ,000 78,000 4, ,000 Quesnel Cultus 63,600 Late Shuswap 10 Portage 10 Weaver 400 Birkenhead 2, ,800 46, ,500 92,400 Late Shuswap Weaver Birkenhead 9

10 (CAVEAT: NOT THE FORECAST JUST AN EXAMPLE OF THE CALCULATION) 2016 Returns 100 EFS (2012) X 10 R/EFS = 1,000 Recruits X 0.85 = 850 age-4 17,000 EFS (2011) X 10 R/EFS = 170,000 Recruits X 0.15 =22,500 age-5 = 26,000 TOTAL = 97% age-5 10

11 Survival: Part 1 11

12 2015 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts Run timing group Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart 13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89,000 Early Summer 120, , ,000 1,003,000 2,703,000 Bowron 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 Fennell 6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000 Gates 24,000 40,000 76, , ,000 Nadina 24,000 45,000 90, , ,000 Pitt 42,000 60,000 90, , ,000 Scotch 300 2,000 12,000 89, ,000 Seymour ,000 3,000 Misc (Early Shuswap) e 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000 Misc (Taseko) e ,000 1,000 2,000 Misc (Chilliwack) 17,000 46, , ,000 1,101,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) f 4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000 Summer 647,000 1,004,000 1,695,000 2,984,000 5,031,000 Chilko g 459, ,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000 Quesnel 6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 Late Stuart 42,000 86, , , ,000 Stellako 86, , , , ,000 Misc (Harrison) h & i 40,000 85, , , ,000 Raft h 11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j 600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j 1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000 Misc (Widgeon) k 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 Standardized Ricker Residuals Return-Ricker Model Forecast Late 41,000 65, , , ,000 Cultus g 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000 **Late Shuswap ,000 25,000 76,000 Portage ,000 2,000 Weaver 2,000 4,000 8,000 17,000 31,000 xx Birkenhead 30,000 45,000 68, , ,000 Misc non-shuswap k 8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 821,000 1,308,000 2,289,000 4,251,000 8,191,000 (10%(25% p-level) p-level) (75%(90% p-level) p-level) 12

13 a Run timing group Forecast Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size Stocks Model b 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58, ,000 Early Summer 236, , ,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 Gates Larkin 46,000 79, , , ,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65, ,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79, , ,000 Scotch Ricker 48,000 85, , , ,000 Seymour Ricker 41,000 68, , , ,000 Misc (EShu) c RS (Scotch/Seymour) 33,000 74, , , ,000 Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4, 000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108, , , ,000 1,421,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54, , ,000 Stellako Larkin 186, , , , ,000 Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255, ,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419, ,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168, , , ,000 1,758,000 Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 Weaver MRS 110, , , ,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead Ricker (Ei)+Sibling 120, , , , ,000 Misc Lillooet-Harrison i R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60, , ,000 Early Shuswap 35% Chilko 21% Harrison 15% Shuswap (Early + Late) TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000

14 WE HAVE A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE 2016 FORECAST 14

15 HIGHER PROPORTION OF FIVE YEAR OLDS IN 2016 FOR SOME STOCKS VERY POOR SURVIVAL OF FOUR YEAR OLDS IN 2015 FOR MANY STOCKS 15

16 Sibling Models Five Four Three 16

Quesnel Weaver Birkenhead 2012: Cyc Avg: 100

24,500 2011 Very Poor EXTREMELY Poor 4 yr old

AND Since four year old survival in 2015 was poor

17 Quesnel Weaver Birkenhead 2012: Cyc Avg: 100 (4,500) 400 (18,300) 2,500 (32,300) 2011: 17,000 24, Very Poor EXTREMELY Poor 4 yr old Survival Most returning as five year olds in 2016 AND Since four year old survival in 2015 was poor expect poor five year old survival in ,400 Very Poor 17

Quesnel Ricker-cyc Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 63,000 Total: 63,000 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 14,000 Total: 15,000 Weaver 2016 MRS Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast :

18 Quesnel Ricker-cyc Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 63,000 Total: 63,000 Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 14,000 Total: 15,000 Weaver 2016 MRS Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 67,000 Total: 72, Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 3,000 Total: 8,000 Birkenhead 2016 Ricker-Ei Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 146,000 Total: 162, Sibling Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 52,000 Total: 68,000 18

19 Harrison Sockeye 19

20 Harrison Escapement average: 150,000 EFS Escapement (EFS) average: 6,000 EFS Year 33K 78K % age-4 25% age-3

Harrison Very Poor Survival of three year olds in 2015 Therefore, we expect very poor survival of their four year old siblings in 2016 Harrison River

21 Harrison Very Poor Survival of three year olds in 2015 Therefore, we expect very poor survival of their four year old siblings in 2016 Harrison River 2016 Ricker-Ei Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 165,000 Total: 359, Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 48,000 Total: 176,000 21

22 Shuswap Stocks (Larkin Model) 22

Late Shuswap Scotch Seymour 2012: Cyc Avg:

Since four year old survival in 2015 was

23 Late Shuswap Scotch Seymour 2012: Cyc Avg: 10 (32,300) 600 (18,300) 300 (4,500) 2011: 46,000 12,500 8, : 3.1 M 273, , yr old Survival Delayed Density Delayed Density Most returning as five year olds in 2016 AND Since four year old survival in 2015 was predicted better with Larkin model we used that model in 2016 Delayed Density 23

24 Late Shuswap 2016 Ricker-cyc Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 9,000 Total: 9, Larkin Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 4,000 Total: 4,000 Seymour 2016 Ricker Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 2,000 Total: 5, Larkin Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 30 Total: 400 Scotch 2016 Ricker Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 20 Total: 10, Larkin Five Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 20 Total: 12,000 24

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26 2015 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 8,000,000 9,000,000 10,000, K 1.3 M 2.3 M 4 M 8 M Early Stuart 50p: 36 K 13 K 89 K (<1% of total forecast) Early Summer Chilliwack: 6% Summer 50p: 447 K Chilko: 44% Stellako: 11% Harrison: 8% LStuart: 8% 120 K 2.7 M (20% of total forecast) Late 50p: 1.7 M 640K 5 M (74% of total forecast) Birkenhead: 3% 50p: 111 K 41 K 366K 26 (5% of total forecast)

27 Survival: Part II 27

28 CHILKO MARINE SURVIVAL Log e (Recruits/Smolt) Past 18 years: average 2009 Returns (2007 OEY) 2015 Returns (2013 OEY) Brood Year

29 YEAR FORECAST PROBABILITY LEVEL <10% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% NA NA NA Only 2010 Was > 50% p-level In past 11 years 29

30 Run timing group Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a Stocks 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart 13,000 22,000 36,000 59,000 89,000 Early Summer 120, , ,000 1,003,000 2,703,000 Bowron 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 Fennell 6,000 9,000 14,000 23,000 39,000 Gates 24,000 40,000 76, , ,000 Nadina 24,000 45,000 90, , ,000 Pitt 42,000 60,000 90, , ,000 Scotch 300 2,000 12,000 89, ,000 Seymour ,000 3,000 Misc (Early Shuswap) e 2,000 4,000 8,000 13,000 24,000 Misc (Taseko) e ,000 1,000 2,000 Misc (Chilliwack) 17,000 46, , ,000 1,101,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) f 4,000 8,000 14,000 26,000 49,000 Summer 647,000 1,004,000 1,695,000 2,984,000 5,031,000 Chilko g 459, ,000 1,002,000 1,573,000 2,283,000 Quesnel 6,000 9,000 15,000 25,000 40,000 Late Stuart 42,000 86, , , ,000 Stellako 86, , , , ,000 Misc (Harrison) h & i 40,000 85, , , ,000 Raft h 11,000 16,000 26,000 38,000 62,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j 600 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j 1,000 3,000 4,000 9,000 19,000 Misc (Widgeon) k 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 12,000 Late 41,000 65, , , ,000 Cultus g 1,000 2,000 4,000 9,000 17,000 **Late Shuswap ,000 25,000 76,000 Portage ,000 2,000 Weaver 2,000 4,000 8,000 17,000 31,000 xx Birkenhead 30,000 45,000 68, , ,000 Misc non-shuswap k 8,000 14,000 27,000 48,000 84,000 TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 821,000 1,308,000 2,289,000 4,251,000 8,191,000 30

31 Request for Stock Information 31

32 Early Stuart: Takla-Trembleur-Early Stu Current Status: Red Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by declines in abundance and productivity; cyclic CU no abundance benchmarks) 50%p: 36,000 Standardized Ricker Residuals Past 12 out of 15 years: < average 2011 BY (2014 Ret) 2005 Brood Year (2009 Returns) Number of Years Effective Total Spawners below 1,000 in last 12 = 1 32

33 Bowron: Bowron-ES Current Status: Red Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by low abundance below LB (4,000 ETS); declines in abundance & productivity; low absolute abundance) 50%p: 4,000 Standardized Ricker Residuals Past 13 out of 15 years: < average 2005 Brood Year (2009 Returns) Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 4 33

34 Taseko: Taseko-ES Current Status: Red Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by declines in abundance; flagged as fair data quality so provisional status) 50%p: 1,000 INDEX OF ABUNDANCE ONLY Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 8 34

35 Quesnel Current Status: Red/Amber Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by abundance and productivity declines; cyclic CU so no benchmarks; cyclic patterns) 50%p: 4,000 Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 1 35

36 Raft Current Status: Amber Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (driven by ETS relative to LB of 6,000 was AMBER) 50%p: 26K Standardized Ricker Residuals Past 8 out of 15 years: < average 2011 BY (2014 Ret) 2005 Brood Year (2009 Returns) Number of Years Effective Total Spawner below 1,000 in last 12 = 0 36

37 Lates Lates at 50% p-level: 111K (cyc avg: 700K) Cultus 50%p 2016: 4,000 (hatchery origin) (cycle average: 22,000) Lower Benchmark: 12,000 wild effective total spawners Current Status: RED Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by all metrics being red; LB: 12,000 ETS; plus low absolute abundance) Weaver 50%p 2016: 8,000 (cycle average: 345,000) Lower Benchmark: 14,000 wild effective total spawners Current Status: AMBER Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by abundance being amber and absolute abundance good) Late Shuswap 50%p 2016: 4,000 (cycle average: 29,000) Lower Benchmark: NA wild effective total spawners Current Status: GREEN Evaluated up to 2010 escapements (status driven by increasing abundance and no systematic trends in productivity) 37

38 Poor 5 year old survival expected for a number of stocks and adjusted in forecast: Quesnel Sibling Weaver Sibling Birkenhead Sibling Harrison (4 yr olds) Sibling Shuswap (Scotch, Seymour, Late) Larkin Even with adjustments to survival of older ages 5 year old proportions very high for some stocks Although 5 yr olds only 20% of total forecast Returns unlikely to be very large in 2016: Range from 800K to 2.3 K (10% to 50% p-level) 38

39 DFO CSAS Science Response Name Sue Grant Bronwyn MacDonald Mike Lapointe Catherine Michielsens Keri Benner Timber Whitehouse Ann-Marie Huang Mike Hawkshaw Les Jantz Bob Conrad Mike Staley Kelsey Campbell Aaron Dufault Jennifer Nener Affiliation Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Pacific Salmon Commission Pacific Salmon Commission Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Northwest Indian Fisheries Commission IAS Ltd. A-Tlegay Fisheries Society Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Pre-press release end in next week will be distributed broadly Translated and posted on DFO CSAS site in 2-3 months 39

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3 rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement

3 rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement Grant, Whitehouse, Tadey, Benner, Patterson, Hills, Selbie, Pon, Neville, Trudel, Perry, Lapointe, Huang Objective To improve our understanding of factors