Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia. 2014/15 Fourth forecast
|
|
- Stewart Adrian Horn
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Australian Wool Production Forecast Report Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee Summary April 2015 The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee (AWPFC) has set its forecast production for the 2014/15 season at 341 million kilograms greasy for the 2014/15 season, the same as the estimate for the 2013/14 season. The Committee s first projection for 2015/16 has been set at 332 mkg, down by 2.7%. There is expected to be a 2.8% reduction in the number of sheep shorn in the 2014/15 season. This decline is less than the 5.2% fall in the opening sheep numbers according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics preliminary estimates released in January The fall in sheep shorn numbers in 2014/15 will be offset by an increase in average fleece weights across Australia due to good production conditions in several regions, including southern New South Wales, northern South Australia and regions in Victoria. Nationally, average fleece weights are expected to increase by 2.9% due to better than expected fleece weights in these regions. Table 1 summarises the estimates and forecasts. Table 1: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia Parameter Opening Sheep Number (million) Average Cut Per Head (kg) 2013/14 Final Estimate 2014/15 Fourth forecast Change y-o-y (%) 2015/16 Initial Projection Change y-o-y (%) % % Sheep Numbers Shorn (million) % % % % Shorn Wool Production (mkg greasy) % % FURTHER INFORMATION Mr Russell Pattinson, National Committee Chairman Tel: Australian Wool Innovation Limited April This document may be reproduced and disseminated with attribution to Australian Wool Innovation Limited (ABN ). DISCLAIMER AWI Limited makes no representations about the content and suitability of the information contained in these materials. Specifically, AWI does not warrant, guarantee or make any representations regarding the correctness, accuracy, reliability, currency, or any other aspect regarding characteristics or use of information presented in this material. The user accepts sole responsibility and risk associated with the use and results of these materials, irrespective of the purpose to which such use or results are applied. In no event shall AWI be liable for any loss or damages (including without limitation special, indirect, or consequential damages), where in an action of contract, negligence, or tort, arising out of or in connection with the use of performance of these materials.
2 Regionally, the Committee forecasts that wool production in 2014/15, compared with 2013/14, will fall the most in Queensland (-24.9%) and Western Australia (-7.4%), while production in Tasmania will remain steady. Wool production in New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia is expected to increase by 2.2%, 1.9% and 7.9% respectively. Table 2 shows the current forecasts by state for 2014/15 in comparison to the 2013/14 estimate. Table 2: Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for individual states Shorn wool production (mkg greasy) QLD NSW VIC TAS SA WA National 2013/14 Final Estimate /15 April Forecast Change y-o-y (%) -24.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 7.9% -7.4% 0.0% The Committee noted that the AWTA wool test data for 2014/15 shows a reduction in volumes of wool of 17.5 microns and finer, and an increase in micron, micron and broad wool (27 microns and broader), in the first nine months of the season. This has resulted in a 0.2 micron increase in the mean fibre diameter for Australia so far this season. More detailed information on shorn wool production by state and by micron can be found in the Appendix to this report. Forecast for 2015/16 The Committee made its initial projection for the 2015/16 season, with a forecast 2.7% decline in shorn wool production to 332 mkg as shown in Table 1. This decrease is due to an expected reduction in opening sheep numbers by 3.5% to 69.1 million head, which is the result of the continued high sheep and lamb turn-off rates in the current season even though lamb markings rates appear to have increased in 2014/15. Major data inputs These forecasts are based on detailed consideration by the state and national committees of current seasonal conditions, AWTA test data, AWEX auction statistics and matched brand analysis information gathered on sheep producer and wool grower intentions, including the MLA/AWI Lamb Survey results, ABS sheep and lamb turn-off and National Livestock Recording Service yardings data. ABS data Table 3 summarises the Australian Bureau of Statistics flock data for the period 2010 to The ABS preliminary estimate for the number of sheep as at 30 th June 2014 (i.e. the opening number of sheep for the 2014/15 season) was released on 21 st January This preliminary estimate shows sheep numbers at 71.6 million head for Australia. The ABS will release its final estimate of sheep numbers as at 30 th June 2014 on 29 th May This release will include data on the number of ewes mated and the lamb marking % in 2013/14. 2 P a g e
3 Table 3: ABS National flock numbers ABS data 2009/ / / / /14(p) % Δ Closing Flock (million head at 30 th June)*: % Breeding ewes (million head at 30 th June)*: % Lambs marked: % Ewes mated: na na na Marking % na 89% 89% 89% na na *Used by AWPFC as sheep number at 1 st July, opening day of following season. (p) preliminary estimate. Australian sheep turn-off statistics for the July 2014 to January 2015 period, sourced from the ABS, are shown in Table 4. This turnoff data covers sheep slaughter, lamb slaughter and live exports and is compared the equivalent period in 2013/14 and the five year average 2010/11 to 2014/15. Table 4: ABS Sheep turn off data for 2014/15 (July to November) Parameter Sheep slaughter ('000 hd) Sheep weights (kg/hd cwt) Mutton production (tonnes cwt) Lamb slaughter ('000 hd) Lamb weights (kg/hd cwt) Lamb production (tonnes cwt) Live exports ('000 hd) Financial year 5-yr FY Jul 13-Jan 14 Jul 14-Jan 15 % Δ Avg % 5,939 5,740-3% 4,319 33% % % 137, ,615 1% 100,943 38% 13,013 13,272 2% 11,693 13% % % 278, ,025 4% 251,231 15% 1,113,654 1,240,701 11% 1,270,176-2% The ABS data shows a small year on year decline in the number of sheep slaughtered (-3%) but an equally modest increase in the number of lambs slaughtered (+2%) in the first seven months of the 2014/15 season. However, when compared with the longer term (5 year) average, both the number of adult sheep slaughtered (+33%) and the number of lambs slaughtered (+13%) were up substantially for this season to date. There was an increase in live exports year on year (+11%) in the July to January period of 2014/15, but the number exported is only slightly down (-2%) on the longer term average. AWTA wool test data (Financial year to end March 2014) AWTA generates monthly greasy wool test data volumes within the various diameter categories. Comparative financial year to-date results are shown in Table 5, and Figures 1 and 2 (overleaf), based on this report. A historical comparison of the Australian micron profile percentage share and average micron can be found in Table 4 in the Appendix to this report. 3 P a g e
4 Table 5: AWTA key test data volumes (WSA) for the financial year to March Parameter Year DIAMETER (MICRON) < /26 27/28 29/30 >30.5 TOTAL AWTA Key Test Data FY Total greasy tonnes 2012/13 6,994 18,961 37,011 49,630 48,759 35,536 21,767 11,982 6,833 13,642 18,668 12,228 7, , /14 10,825 22,719 39,445 49,866 45,601 30,728 17,115 9,346 6,059 15,058 18,553 8,942 5, , /15 8,599 21,799 41,089 51,660 44,616 30,219 18,135 9,679 5,460 13,000 19,569 11,522 7, ,810 YTD - YOY% 2014/15-21% -4% 4% 4% -2% -2% 6% 4% -10% -14% 5% 29% 35% 1.1% AWTA data for wool test volumes presented in Tables 5 and 6 and Figures 1 and 2 indicate that: - Volumes of wool tested for 2014/15 to end March were 1.1% higher than for the same period in 2013/14; - There was a reduction in wool tested of 17.5 microns and finer and in the micron categories in the first nine months of the season; - There were significant increases in the broad end of the clip (greater than 28.6 micron), which was a recovery from the sharp decline in 2013/14; - There were gains in the micron and micron categories; - The volumes of wool tested (on a wool statistical area basis) in the first nine months of the 2014/15 season were higher than year earlier levels in South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania and New South Wales. It was lower in Queensland and Western Australia. Figure 1: Comparison of monthly AWTA key test data volumes 4 P a g e
5 Figure 2: Across-years comparison of Australian diameter profile to March (AWTA based on key test data) Table 6: AWTA Wool Statistics Area test data volumes (WSA) for the financial year to March Year NSW Vic WA SA Tas Qld Australia 2012/13 99,937 70,063 58,896 40,101 8,624 11, , /14 97,734 65,004 61,341 38,393 8,387 8, , /15 101,996 66,877 56,301 41,838 8,545 7, ,810 % change y-o-y 4.4% 2.9% -8.2% 9.0% 1.9% -18.5% 1.1% AWEX auction statistics and matched brand analysis According to the AWEX s auction statistics, first hand bales offered were higher (4.3%) in 2014/15 compared with 2013/14 to week 40 (the week ending 2 nd April 2015), with increases in the northern (+1.7%) and southern regions (+6.5%), and a small decline in the western region (-0.4%). The AWEX s matched brands analysis for the same period shows a 2.2% fall in wool volumes, with large declines in Queensland ( down by 14.2%) and in Western Australia (-11.1%), and a smaller decline in Tasmania (-4.8%) offset by increases in South Australia (+2.8%) Victoria (+1.3%) and New South Wales (+0.7%). Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) seasonal rainfall seasonal outlook The BoM recorded dry to very dry conditions over late spring to early autumn (October to March) for western Victoria, the southern half of South Australia, northern New South Wales, parts of Tasmania, much of the key wool growing regions in Queensland and the south-west corner of Western Australia. The eastern part of Victoria, northern South Australia and southeast New South Wales and considerable parts of Western Australia recorded above average rainfall (figure 3). 5 P a g e
6 Figure 3: Australian six month rainfall deciles (October 2014 to March 2015) These patterns are replicated for the full 12 months to March. Dry conditions were recorded throughout Tasmania, in western Victoria/south-eastern South Australia, Queensland and northern and western New South Wales and the south-west corner of Western Australia (figure 4). Northern parts of South Australia, the south-east of New South Wales and eastern Victoria have seen above average rainfall. Figure 4: Australian yearly rainfall deciles (April 2014 to March 2015) 6 P a g e
7 The Bureau predicts that much of mainland Australia will record wetter and warmer than normal seasonal conditions between April and June 2015 (figures 5 and 6). Tasmania is expected to see normal conditions. Figure 5: Chance of exceeding median Figure 6: Chance of exceeding median rainfall (April to June 2015) maximum temperature (April to June 2015) As at 31 st March, the Bureau stated that the chance El Niño being declared in the coming months is at 50%. This is double the average likelihood of an event occurring at this time of the year. It also noted that international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate the central Pacific Ocean will continue to warm, with all models indicating El Niño thresholds will be reached or exceeded by mid-year. State Committee inputs The following provides a summary of seasonal conditions and wool production in each state for the 2014/15 season as reported by State Committees in April Seasonal conditions have been good to excellent for some regions but dry to very dry in other regions. Nevertheless, average fleece weights are expected to be above the levels seen in 2013/14. Sheep shorn numbers will decline as a result of declines in opening numbers in most states. As well, there has been a continued turnoff of sheep and lambs this season. Reports suggest that these sheep and lambs have been shorn prior to slaughter. This increased turn-off of sheep is expected to result in lower sheep numbers at the start of the 2015/16 season. New South Wales Seasonal conditions in the southern half of the state are generally very good, with some parts experiencing some of the best conditions ever seen for stock. In contrast, the northern half of NSW is dry, with some parts very dry, although well-established drought feeding strategies are helping to maintain fleece weights. Recent drier conditions has meant few delays in shearing, which is advanced and resulted in an increase in wool receivals and tests in the past three months. It will mean that receivals and tests are likely to be significantly lower in the last three months of the season. Overall for the 2014/15 season, sheep shorn numbers are expected to be lower than in 2013/14, but not by as much as the decline in opening numbers, and wool production is expected to increase by 2%. 7 P a g e
8 Victoria Seasonal conditions have been good in significant parts of the state until drying off in past few months. As a result, sheep have been in very good condition, until recently so average fleece weights are expected to be higher in 2014/15. With the dry summer and early autumn, there has been a sell-off of sheep. These sheep that have been sold-off are typically being shorn first, which will mean that the fall in sheep shorn numbers will not be as great as the decline in opening sheep numbers at the start of the 2014/15 season. The higher average fleece weights will more than offset the decline in the number of sheep shorn. Wool production will therefore be 2% higher for the full 2014/15 season. Western Australia Opening sheep numbers are reported by the ABS to be down sharply, but sheep shorn numbers are not expected to be down by as much. Average fleece weights are expected to move back to the 50 th percentile level. There is currently intense competition for sheep for live trade and slaughter. Seasonal conditions are dry in some areas but are excellent in the northern sheep producing regions of the state. Over the full season, both the number of sheep shorn and the average wool cut per head is likely to decline, resulting in a 7% fall in shorn wool production. South Australia Seasonal conditions have been good to very good in the pastoral areas (northern South Australia) and dry in the south-east. As a result fleece weights are up in the north and reasonable in the south due to hand-feeding. This, combined with signs that pursuit of higher fleece weights is starting to bear fruit, means that average fleece weights will be higher this season. The number of sheep shorn will also lift, in part due to increased early shearing. For the full 2014/15 season, there is expected to be an 8% increase in shorn wool production. Tasmania Seasonal conditions were difficult over summer in the main wool-growing regions in central Tasmania and, unless there is rain in the next few weeks (before it gets too cold), winter will be difficult. This is likely to result in a decline in average fleece weights. There appears to have been a turn-off of sheep over the past 6 weeks, but these have been shorn before sale. The number of sheep shorn for the full 2014/15 season is estimated to have increased, even though opening sheep numbers were lower. This will offset the decline in average fleece weights and result in the same level of shorn wool production in 2014/15 as in 2013/14. Queensland There was very low rainfall during summer (the main rainfall period for Queensland) in significant parts of the sheep producing regions of Queensland. This has resulted in a further significant turn-off of sheep as well as advanced shearing. Average fleece weights are lower than a year earlier. Both the number of sheep shorn and the average cut per head will fall and production is predicted to decline by 25% in 2014/15 to the lowest on record. 8 P a g e
9 Appendix Table 1: Comparison of the 4 th forecast for 2014/15 against the final estimate for 2013/ /14 Final Estimate QLD NSW VIC TAS SA WA National Opening Sheep Number (million) Sheep Numbers Shorn (million) Average Cut Per Head (kg) Shorn Wool Production (mkg greasy) /15 4th Forecast (Apr-15) QLD NSW VIC TAS SA WA National Opening Sheep Number (million) Sheep Numbers Shorn (million) Average Cut Per Head (kg) Shorn Wool Production (mkg greasy) Change % QLD NSW VIC TAS SA WA National Opening Sheep Number -20.1% -3.9% -6.0% -1.9% -0.2% -7.9% -5.2% Sheep Numbers Shorn -21.9% -1.9% -3.9% 1.9% 2.8% -4.1% -2.8% Average Cut Per Head -3.8% 4.3% 6.0% -1.9% 4.9% -3.5% -1.3% Shorn Wool Production -24.8% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 7.9% -7.4% 0.0% Note: Totals may not add due to rounding 9 P a g e
10 Historical Australian Production Figures Table below provides historical sheep numbers, wool production and fleece weight statistics since 1991/92 for background information. Table 2: Australian wool production statistics since 1991/92 Table 3: Year Opening Sheep Number Sheep Numbers Shorn Average Cut Per Head Shorn Wool Production (million) (million) (kg) (mkg greasy) f f Australian micron profile of AWTA wool test volume statistics since 1991/92 (% share and average micron) AWTA KTD Micron Percentage Split of Wool Production (um) Year < /26 27/28 29/30 >30.5 Average Fibre Diameter (um) 1991/92 0.1% 0.7% 3.2% 7.9% 15.2% 21.5% 20.0% 13.4% 7.1% 5.5% 2.9% 1.6% 1.0% /93 0.0% 0.3% 1.9% 5.4% 12.0% 19.9% 20.6% 15.6% 10.0% 7.9% 3.0% 1.9% 1.6% /94 0.1% 0.5% 2.4% 5.9% 12.1% 18.8% 20.8% 15.7% 10.0% 7.4% 2.8% 1.9% 1.7% /95 0.1% 0.6% 3.5% 8.6% 15.2% 20.9% 19.9% 13.0% 7.0% 4.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.7% /96 0.0% 0.6% 3.3% 8.2% 15.3% 20.8% 18.5% 13.2% 8.1% 6.0% 2.7% 1.8% 1.6% /97 0.2% 0.8% 3.9% 9.7% 15.3% 20.1% 18.3% 13.1% 7.4% 5.3% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% /98 0.2% 1.2% 4.5% 9.8% 14.8% 19.4% 18.3% 12.8% 7.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.8% 1.5% /99 0.2% 1.1% 4.2% 8.8% 14.6% 19.6% 18.6% 14.0% 7.6% 5.1% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% /00 0.1% 1.0% 4.2% 9.3% 14.4% 19.1% 18.2% 13.6% 7.7% 5.2% 2.9% 2.4% 1.9% /01 0.2% 1.3% 5.2% 11.1% 15.7% 18.5% 16.4% 11.4% 6.8% 5.1% 3.6% 2.8% 1.9% /02 0.3% 2.0% 7.2% 14.4% 19.9% 18.9% 12.9% 7.7% 4.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.1% 1.9% /03 1.0% 3.9% 9.8% 15.7% 18.9% 17.6% 12.0% 6.6% 2.9% 3.4% 3.7% 2.9% 1.7% /04 0.7% 3.6% 9.9% 15.8% 18.3% 16.6% 11.9% 7.5% 3.6% 3.5% 3.8% 2.9% 1.8% /05 1.2% 4.2% 10.5% 16.5% 18.7% 15.9% 10.7% 6.2% 3.2% 3.6% 4.1% 3.1% 2.0% /06 1.4% 4.7% 9.7% 15.1% 18.7% 17.1% 11.5% 5.9% 2.9% 3.9% 4.5% 2.9% 1.6% /07 2.0% 5.9% 11.8% 15.9% 16.9% 14.0% 9.9% 6.2% 3.4% 4.3% 4.4% 3.2% 2.1% /08 1.9% 5.3% 10.9% 16.8% 18.4% 14.3% 9.2% 5.5% 3.0% 4.1% 4.8% 3.6% 2.2% /09 2.0% 5.7% 11.4% 16.6% 18.5% 15.0% 9.1% 4.4% 2.3% 3.8% 5.1% 3.8% 2.2% /10 2.3% 6.2% 12.6% 17.1% 17.5% 13.2% 8.4% 4.6% 2.5% 4.1% 5.4% 3.9% 2.3% /11 1.5% 4.8% 11.0% 16.8% 18.0% 13.5% 8.4% 5.4% 3.0% 3.9% 5.5% 5.0% 3.1% /12 1.8% 5.6% 12.0% 17.1% 16.6% 12.3% 8.3% 5.3% 2.9% 4.2% 5.8% 4.7% 3.3% /13 2.5% 7.0% 13.3% 17.5% 16.8% 12.0% 7.3% 4.1% 2.3% 4.6% 6.2% 4.0% 2.5% /14 3.8% 8.4% 14.6% 17.8% 16.0% 10.9% 6.2% 3.4% 2.2% 5.2% 6.4% 3.1% 2.1% /15* 3.0% 7.7% 14.5% 18.3% 15.8% 10.7% 6.4% 3.4% 1.9% 4.6% 6.9% 4.1% 2.6% 21.1 Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 2014/15* is data season to date (July - March) 10 P a g e
11 Explanation of revised AWPFC data series At the December 2005 meeting, the national Committee made the decision to collate and review the key variables (shorn wool production, cut per head, number of sheep shorn) used in the committee from the available industry sources and to create a consistent historical data series at both a state and national level. This was required as some differences existed between industry accepted figures and the AWPFC data series and to ensure a consistent methodology over time. This process resulted in changes to the parameters average cut per head and the number of sheep shorn for some seasons at both a state and national level. Modus operandi for the AWI Production Forecasting Committee The AWI Wool Production Forecasting Committee draws together a range of objective data and qualitative information to produce consensus-based, authoritative forecasts four times a year for Australian wool production. The Committee has a two-level structure, with a National Committee considering information and advice from state sub-committees. It is funded by Australian Wool Innovation Limited, which also provides an independent representative in the role of the Chairman of the National Committee. The National and state sub-committees comprise wool producers, wool brokers, exporters, processors, private treaty merchants, AWEX, AWTA, ABARES, ABS, MLA, state departments of Agriculture and AWI. The Committee releases its forecasts in the forms of a press release and a report providing the detailed forecasts, historical data and commentary on the key drivers of the forecasts. 11 P a g e
Summary of wool production estimates and forecasts for Australia. 2012/13 4th forecast 78.9
Australian Wool Production Forecast Report Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee April 2013 Summary The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee has increased the forecast of shorn wool
More informationAugust Australian Wool Production Forecast Report. Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee Summary
Australian Wool Production Forecast Report Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee Summary August 2017 The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee predicts that Australian shorn wool production
More informationDecember Australian Wool Production Forecast Report. Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee Summary
Australian Wool Production Forecast Report Australian Wool Production Forecast Committee Summary December 2017 The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecasts that shorn wool production
More informationIN FOCUS: WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK JULY 2017
IN FOCUS: WHEAT PRODUCTION OUTLOOK JULY 217 Author Phin Ziebell, Agribusiness Economist Photo Carl Davies CSIRO Sunset at Euroa, Victoria Photo Mai Thai CONTENTS 3 Summary and forecasts 4 Planting conditions
More informationFire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change. Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015
Fire Weather Drivers, Seasonal Outlook and Climate Change Steven McGibbony, Severe Weather Manager Victoria Region Friday 9 October 2015 Outline Weather and Fire Risk Environmental conditions leading to
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL January 13, 2015 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationClimate Outlook and Review
Climate Outlook and Review August 2018 Author: Prof Roger C Stone Overview The European, UK, and US long-term climate models that focus on forecasting central Pacific sea surface temperatures are continuing
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016
Seasonal Climate Watch January to May 2016 Date: Dec 17, 2015 1. Advisory Most models are showing the continuation of a strong El-Niño episode towards the latesummer season with the expectation to start
More informationNATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT UPDATE FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET
NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT UPDATE FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET Published: December 2014 IMPORTANT NOTICE Purpose The purpose of this publication is to report on the accuracy of the
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast February 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College February 5, 2018 Summary: For the majority of the month of January the persistent ridge of high pressure
More informationHighlight: Support for a dry climate increasing.
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
More informationClimate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications. What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable
Climate outlook, longer term assessment and regional implications What s Ahead for Agriculture: How to Keep One of Our Key Industries Sustainable Bureau of Meteorology presented by Dr Jeff Sabburg Business
More informationSeasonal outlook autumn/ winter 2018
Seasonal outlook autumn/ winter 2018 Compiled by: Phil Graham, Graham Advisory Matthew Lieschke, Livestock Officer, South East Local Land Services 16 April 2018 1 Table of Contents Executive summary...
More informationClimate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014
Climate Outlook through 2100 South Florida Ecological Services Office Vero Beach, FL September 9, 2014 Short Term Drought Map: Short-term (
More informationUnregulated Diversions Water Outlook for Melbourne Water Licence Holders
Unregulated Diversions Water Outlook for Melbourne Water Licence Holders November 2017 Melbourne Water is owned by the Victorian Government. We manage Melbourne s water supply catchments, remove and treat
More informationClimate Outlook and Review
Climate Outlook and Review September 2018 Author: Prof Roger C Stone Overview The European, UK, and US long-term climate models that focus on forecasting central Pacific sea surface temperatures are continuing
More informationSouth & South East Asian Region:
Issued: 15 th December 2017 Valid Period: January June 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University February 7, 2017 What a difference from last year at this time. Temperatures in January and February
More informationMonthly Overview. Rainfall
Monthly Overview Rainfall during August occurred mainly over the Western and Eastern Cape provinces, and KwaZulu- Natal. Rain in these provinces were regularly accompanied by cold fronts as they made landfall
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 5, 2018 Summary: A persistent ridge of high pressure over the west in December produced strong inversions
More informationThe science behind southeast Australia s wet, cool summer.
XXXX The science behind southeast Australia s wet, cool summer. Key facts: 1. For many years scientists have painted a clear picture: that the Earth s surface is warming rapidly and the climate is changing.
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2018 Summary: Much of Washington, Oregon, coastal California and the Bay Area and delta region
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 7, 2018 Summary: The ridge pattern that brought drier and warmer conditions from December through most
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast April 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College April 4, 2018 Summary: A near Miracle March played out bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the majority
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast March 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College March 2, 2019 Summary: Dramatic flip from a mild winter to a top five coldest February on record in many locations
More informationWill a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall?
Will a warmer world change Queensland s rainfall? Nicholas P. Klingaman National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate Walker Institute for Climate System Research University of Reading The Walker-QCCCE
More informationNational Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook
National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook National Interagency Fire Center Predictive Services Issued: September, 2007 Wildland Fire Outlook September through December 2007 Significant fire
More informationThe South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast January 2019 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College January 4, 2019 Summary: December was mild and dry over much of the west, while the east was much warmer than
More informationMonthly overview. Rainfall
Monthly overview 1 to 10 April 2018 Widespread rainfall continued to fall over most parts of the summer rainfall region during this period. Unseasonably good rain fell over the eastern half of the Northern
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Fall/Winter 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University November 5, 2016 After a year where we were seemingly off by a month in terms of temperatures (March
More informationEl Nino 2015 in South Sudan: Impacts and Perspectives. Raul Cumba
El Nino 2015 in South Sudan: Impacts and Perspectives Raul Cumba El Nino 2015-2016 The El Nino Event of 2015-2016 The 2015/16 El Nino Event Officially declared in March 2015 Now approaching peak intensity
More informationClimate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements. Issued 1 October Roger C Stone
Climate Outlook and Review Focus on sugar industry requirements Issued 1 October 2017 Roger C Stone University of Southern Queensland Document title 1 Overview A short La Nina-type pattern trying to develop
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Winter 2016-17 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University December 5, 2016 Well after an October that felt more like November, we just finished a November that
More informationSOUTH AUSTRALIAN WIND STUDY REPORT SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ADVISORY FUNCTIONS
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN WIND STUDY REPORT SOUTH AUSTRALIAN ADVISORY FUNCTIONS Published: October 2015 IMPORTANT NOTICE Purpose The purpose of this publication is to provide information about wind generation in
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast December 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College December 5, 2017 Summary: November was relatively cool and wet from central California throughout most of
More informationSeasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013)
Seasonal Climate Forecast August October 2013 Verification (Issued: November 17, 2013) Note: This product is published by the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA), in cooperation with the Oregon Department
More informationBecky Bolinger Water Availability Task Force November 13, 2018
Colorado Climate Center WATF Climate Update Becky Bolinger Water Availability Task Force November 13, 2018 COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER Water Year 2018 Colorado s Climate in Review COLORADO CLIMATE CENTER
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING November 16, 2018 Rick Thoman Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy Today s Outline Feature of the month: Southeast Drought Update Climate Forecast Basics
More informationSouth Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6)
Sixth Session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-6) Dhaka, Bangladesh, 19-22 April 2015 Consensus Statement Summary Below normal rainfall is most likely during the 2015 southwest monsoon season
More informationSeasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June to September) Issued in May 2014
Ministry of Earth Sciences Earth System Science Organization India Meteorological Department WMO Regional Climate Centre (Demonstration Phase) Pune, India Seasonal Climate Outlook for South Asia (June
More informationNIWA Outlook: October - December 2015
October December 2015 Issued: 1 October 2015 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Overview Regional predictions for the next three months: Northland,
More informationMDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK. Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL
MDA WEATHER SERVICES AG WEATHER OUTLOOK Kyle Tapley-Senior Agricultural Meteorologist May 22, 2014 Chicago, IL GLOBAL GRAIN NORTH AMERICA 2014 Agenda Spring Recap North America Forecast El Niño Discussion
More informationMonthly Overview Rainfall
Monthly Overview The month of November can be described as having had two parts. The first half of the month was categorised by regular severe weather warnings with large thunderstorms occurring over large
More informationMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE JAMAICA CLIMATE BRANCH
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE JAMAICA CLIMATE BRANCH PRELIMINARY MONTHLY RAINFALL SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 2016 Introduction This rainfall summary is prepared by the Climate Branch of the Meteorological Service, Jamaica.
More informationNatGasWeather.com Daily Report
NatGasWeather.com Daily Report Issue Time: 5:15 am EDT Wednesday, March 22 nd, 2017 1-7 Day Weather Summary (Mar 22-28 th ): A cold blast will sweep across the Great Lakes and eastern US today and Thursday
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING December 22, 2017 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Autumn sea ice near Alaska Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018
New Zealand Climate Update No 226, April 2018 Current climate March 2018 March 2018 was characterised by significantly higher pressure than normal to the east of New Zealand. This pressure pattern, in
More informationChart Discussion: Fri-24-Aug-2018 (Harvey Stern) Last Week s Rainfall
Last Week s Rainfall 1 Last Week s Surface Charts 2 Last month s Max Temp Forecasts: ACCESS Model Da te Model MxD1 MxD2 MxD3 MxD4 MxD5 MxD6 MxD7 MxD8 MxD9 MxD10 0 1- Aug- 18 ACC 15.4 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6
More informationBOTSWANA AGROMETEOROLOGICAL MONTHLY
Depart. Of Meteorological Services Agro-met Office P.O. Box 10100, Gaborone Tel: 3612200 Fax: 3956282/140 Corner Maaloso- Metsimothaba Road Gaborone Village Highlights: Very wet to extremely wet conditions
More informationOregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017
Oregon Water Conditions Report April 17, 2017 Mountain snowpack continues to maintain significant levels for mid-april. By late March, statewide snowpack had declined to 118 percent of normal after starting
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: February 15, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com JANUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review During January, the average
More informationSouth & South East Asian Region:
Issued: 10 th November 2017 Valid Period: December 2017 May 2018 South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia Tobacco Regions 1 A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast October 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College October 4, 2017 Summary: Typical variability in September temperatures with the onset of fall conditions evident
More informationSEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ZIMBABWE. 28 August 2017 THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM
2017-18 SEASONAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR ZIMBABWE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT 28 August 2017 THE ZIMBABWE NATIONAL CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUM Introduction The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe
More informationNIWA Outlook: April June 2019
April June 2019 Issued: 28 March 2019 Hold mouse over links and press ctrl + left click to jump to the information you require: Outlook Summary Regional predictions for the next three months Northland,
More informationMonthly overview. Rainfall
Monthly overview 1-10 August 2018 The month started off with light showers over the Western Cape. A large cold front made landfall around the 5th of the month. This front was responsible for good rainfall
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer into Harvest 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University September 3, 2016 With school and football season starting a hint of fall is right on time
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch November 2017 to March 2018 Date issued: Oct 26, 2017 1. Overview The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continues to develop towards a La Niña state, and is expected to be in at
More informationEXECUTIVE BRIEF: El Niño and Food Security in Southern Africa October 2009
El Niño is a phenomenon which occurs in the Pacific Ocean, but affects climate globally. This document summarizes the known historic impacts of El Niño in southern Africa. The impact of El Niño in the
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2017 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University August 4, 2017 July largely held true to forecast, although it ended with the start of one of the most extreme
More informationFORECAST ACCURACY REPORT 2017 FOR THE 2016 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT
FORECAST ACCURACY REPORT 2017 FOR THE 2016 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT Published: November 2017 Purpose The National Electricity Rules (Rules) require AEMO to report to the Reliability Panel
More informationClimate briefing. Wellington region, May Alex Pezza and Mike Thompson Environmental Science Department
Climate briefing Wellington region, May 2016 Alex Pezza and Mike Thompson Environmental Science Department For more information, contact the Greater Wellington Regional Council: Wellington PO Box 11646
More informationOFF THE CHARTS: 2013 WAS AUSTRALIA S HOTTEST YEAR
OFF THE CHARTS: 2013 WAS AUSTRALIA S HOTTEST YEAR The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. 2013 was a remarkable
More informationALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING. June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region
ALASKA REGION CLIMATE OUTLOOK BRIEFING June 22, 2018 Rick Thoman National Weather Service Alaska Region Today s Outline Feature of the month: Ocean Warmth Headed into Summer Climate Forecast Basics Climate
More informationAugust 2014 Climate Summary. Rainfall Outlook and Drought Update for October - December 2014
METEOROLOGY DIVISION MINISTRY OF CLIMATE CHANGE, ENERGY, DISASTER MANAGEMENT, METEOROLOGY, INFORMATION & COMMUNICATIONS. KINGDOM OF TONGA Climate Update for Tonga August Climate Summary Rainfall Outlook
More informationFire Season Prediction for Canada, Kerry Anderson Canadian Forest Service
Fire Season Prediction for Canada, 2014 Kerry Anderson Canadian Forest Service 1 Introduction The Canadian Forest Service is now presenting monthly and seasonal forecast maps through the Canadian Wildland
More informationWinter. Here s what a weak La Nina usually brings to the nation with tempseraures:
2017-2018 Winter Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2017-2018. El Nino /
More informationZambia. General Climate. Recent Climate Trends. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles. Temperature. C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G.
UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Zambia C. McSweeney 1, M. New 1,2 and G. Lizcano 1 1. School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford. 2. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast August 2018 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College August 5, 2018 Summary: July 2018 will likely go down as one of the top five warmest July s on record for many
More informationSummer 2018 Southern Company Temperature/Precipitation Forecast
Scott A. Yuknis High impact weather forecasts, climate assessment and prediction. 14 Boatwright s Loop Plymouth, MA 02360 Phone/Fax 508.927.4610 Cell: 508.813.3499 ClimateImpact@comcast.net Climate Impact
More informationMonthly Overview. Rainfall
Monthly Overview Weather news during February 2017 was dominated by the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Dineo, the first cyclone to make landfall over southern Africa since cyclone Eline in February 2000.
More informationCurrent and future climate of the Cook Islands. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Penrhyn Pukapuka Nassau Suwarrow Rakahanga Manihiki N o r t h e r n C o o k I s l a nds S o u t h e Palmerston r n C o o k I s l
More informationUPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017)
UPDATE OF REGIONAL WEATHER AND SMOKE HAZE (December 2017) 1. Review of Regional Weather Conditions for November 2017 1.1 In November 2017, Southeast Asia experienced inter-monsoon conditions in the first
More informationSierra Weather and Climate Update
Sierra Weather and Climate Update 2014-15 Kelly Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Yosemite Hydroclimate Workshop Yosemite Valley, 2015 October 8-9 Percent of
More informationSeasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018
Seasonal Climate Watch February to June 2018 Date issued: Jan 26, 2018 1. Overview The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to remain in a weak La Niña phase through to early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr).
More informationThe Water and the Land (WATL) project; balancing farmer needs, atmospheric science, and information delivery.
The Water and the Land (WATL) project; balancing farmer needs, atmospheric science, and information delivery. Andrew Watkins National Climate Centre Bureau of Meteorology (Member: WMO CAgM ET on the Impact
More informationEl Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016
El Niño 2015/2016 Impact Analysis Monthly Outlook February 2016 Linda Hirons, Nicolas Klingaman This report has been produced by University of Reading for Evidence on Demand with the assistance of the
More informationEl Niño 2015/2016: Impact Analysis
El Niño /26: Impact Analysis March 26 Dr Linda Hirons, Dr Nicholas Klingaman This work was funded by the Department for International Development (DFID) 2 Table of Contents. Introduction 4. Update of current
More informationNew Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 November 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas, particularly
More informationNOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
NOAA 2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook Dr. Gerry Bell Lead Seasonal Forecaster Climate Prediction Center/ NOAA/ NWS Collaboration With National Hurricane Center/ NOAA/ NWS Hurricane Research
More informationIllinois Drought Update, December 1, 2005 DROUGHT RESPONSE TASK FORCE Illinois State Water Survey, Department of Natural Resources
Illinois Drought Update, December 1, 2005 DROUGHT RESPONSE TASK FORCE Illinois State Water Survey, Department of Natural Resources For more drought information please go to http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/. SUMMARY.
More informationRegional overview Autumn 2016
Autumn 2016 (March to May inclusive) was drier than average for most of the region. The south and east of the Wairarapa were the driest areas with west coast areas being the wettest. Autumn rainfall The
More informationMonthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 1, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: APRIL 1, 2015 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com FEBRUARY 2015 Climate Highlights The Month in Review The February contiguous U.S. temperature
More informationHere s what a weak El Nino usually brings to the nation with temperatures:
Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2018-2019. El Nino / La Nina: When looking
More informationYACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer
YACT (Yet Another Climate Tool)? The SPI Explorer Mike Crimmins Assoc. Professor/Extension Specialist Dept. of Soil, Water, & Environmental Science The University of Arizona Yes, another climate tool for
More informationENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM
ENSO UPDATE By Joseph D Aleo, CCM El Nino is still hanging on but likely not for very long. Warmer than normal water can still be seen along the equator in the tropical Pacific. It is even warmer in the
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast November 2017 Report Gregory V. Jones Linfield College November 7, 2017 Summary: October was relatively cool and wet north, while warm and very dry south. Dry conditions
More informationWeather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016
Weather and Climate Summary and Forecast Summer 2016 Gregory V. Jones Southern Oregon University June 6, 2016 May 2016 continued the warm trend for portions of the west, while providing some relief for
More informationpeak half-hourly Tasmania
Forecasting long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for Tasmania Dr Shu Fan B.S., M.S., Ph.D. Professor Rob J Hyndman B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D., A.Stat. Business & Economic Forecasting Unit Report for
More informationAFAC 2006 page 536. Climate-Change Impacts on fire-weather in SE Australia Kevin Hennessy, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO
AFAC 2006 page 536 Climate-Change Impacts on fire-weather in SE Australia Kevin Hennessy, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO AFAC 2006 page 537 Climate change impacts on fire-weather risk in south-east
More informationSoil Moisture Probe Newsletter: October 2015
Soil Moisture Probe Newsletter: October 2015 Southern Farming Systems aims to improve nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) of growers in the high rainfall zones of Victoria and Tasmania. SFS has installed 62
More informationCATCHMENT DESCRIPTION. Little River Catchment Management Plan Stage I Report Climate 4.0
CATCHMENT DESCRIPTION Little River Catchment Management Plan Stage I Report Climate 4. Little River Catchment Management Plan Stage I Report Climate 4.1 4. CLIMATE 4.1 INTRODUCTION Climate is one of the
More informationClimate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA s Climate Prediction Center Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Operations Wassila M. Thiaw Climate Prediction Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction Acknowlegement: Mathew Rosencrans, Arun
More informationIGAD Climate Prediction and and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, August May 2015
. IGAD Climate Prediction and and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, August May 2015 For referencing within this bulletin, the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is generally subdivided into three sub-regions:
More informationBy: J Malherbe, R Kuschke
2015-10-27 By: J Malherbe, R Kuschke Contents Summary...2 Overview of expected conditions over South Africa during the next few days...3 Significant weather events (27 October 2 November)...3 Conditions
More informationSEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW
Monthly Long Range Weather Commentary Issued: October 21, 2013 Steven A. Root, CCM, President/CEO sroot@weatherbank.com SEPTEMBER 2013 REVIEW Climate Highlights The Month in Review The average temperature
More informationIGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, August 2014
IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre Monthly Bulletin, 1. HIGHLIGHTS/ ACTUALITES Rainfall activities were mainly observed over the central parts of the northern sector and western parts of equatorial
More informationEast Africa The 2015 Season (Long Rains)
East Africa The 2015 Season (Long Rains) EAST AFRICA SEASONAL ANALYSIS - 2015 HIGHLIGHTS The Long Rains season in the Horn of Africa has come to an end in May. With no further rainfall until the Short
More informationAgricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS
Agricultural Outlook Forum Presented: February 17, 2006 THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE ATLANTIC HURRICANES AND SEASONAL PREDICTIONS Gerald Bell Meteorologist, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA,
More information