3 rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement

Transcription

1 3 rd Annual Fraser Sockeye Forecast Supplement Grant, Whitehouse, Tadey, Benner, Patterson, Hills, Selbie, Pon, Neville, Trudel, Perry, Lapointe, Huang

2 Objective To improve our understanding of factors that influence Fraser Sockeye survival Synthesize and integrate research from various experts: Returns and Population Dynamics Upstream migration and fish health Spawner assessments (health, condition, numbers) Juveniles in lake (health, condition, numbers) Limnology Mission smolts Strait of Georgia Juveniles High Seas Juveniles and Ocean Conditions 2

3 Name Sue Grant Bronwyn MacDonald Keri Benner David Patterson Jayme Hills Dan Selbie Lucas Pon Joe Tadey Timber Whitehouse Chrys Neville Marc Trudel Ian Perry Mike Lapointe Ann-Marie Huang Life-History Stage Forecasts and Population Dynamics Forecasts Escapement and Smolts Migration and Fish Condition: Adults and Smolts Migration and Fish Condition: Adults and Smolts Lake Fry and Limnology Lake Fry and Limnology Mission Smolts Mission Smolts Strait of Georgia Sockeye juveniles High Seas Salmon and Ocean Conditions Ocean Conditions Returns Population Dynamics 3

4 Adult Migration Conditions Overall look: 2012 Discharge Conditions: Early Stuart Discharge High What stocks were possibly affected? Early Stuart, Early Summer David Patterson and Jayme Hills 4

5 Adult Migration Conditions Overall look: 2012 Temperature : Chilko Summer runs experienced above average temperatures David Patterson and Jayme Hills 5

6 Spawning Success At / Above Average Below Average Lowest spawning success in 50 years at 71% (average 89%) At / near record low success of spawn at several populations Poor fish condition and high pre-spawn mortality in several areas (not all) of the watershed Keri Benner

7 CHILKO FRESHWATER SURVIVAL Log e (Recruits/Smolt) Smolt sizes in 2012 (99 mm) above average (86 mm) 2012 BY (age returns) Brood Year Keri Benner, Mike Lapointe, Steve Latham

8 Mission Smolt Outmigration Survey Timber Whitehouse and Joe Tadey, Project Leads DFO Stock Assessment 8

9 125.0 Mean CU fork-length Anderson-Seton (ES) Shuswap Complex (L) Chilko (S) & Chilko (ES) Timber Whitehouse & Joe Tadey 10

10 Strait of Georgia Juvenile Salmon Surveys Neville & Beamish, DFO Science 11

11 Sockeye salmon CPUE June/July The CPUE (0.43) in 2014 is not only lower than other years for same cycle line (arrows) it is the lowest in the time series. The average proportion of empty stomachs sampled in trawl surveys in 2014 was similar to average and would therefore suggest that conditions were not out of the normal range in the SOG Unlike last year, the distribution of juveniles in the SOG and movement through the Discovery Islands is similar to other years. EXTREMELY Preliminary Regression: predicted 470,000 at the 50% p-level

12 Sockeye - September M 0.08 M 0.09 M 0.01 M 0.06 M 0.27 M 0.38 M 0.1 M 0.14 M M 1.4 M 0.17 M 0.17 M 1.4 M M M (0.500 M) 1.6 M Age-4 Age Forecast: 48 K 128 K (19K age-3 in 2015)

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16 Indicators of Survival

17 Chilko Age 3 (Jacks) Recruits y = x R² = Age 4 Recruits Preliminary 2015 Jack Escapements (ER Adj): 2,500 Source: K.Benner 2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 970, Ricker-cyc Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 1,000,000

18 Stellako Age 3 (Jacks) Recruits y = 0.243x R² = Age 4 Recruits Preliminary 2015 Jack Escapements (ER Adj): 57 Source: K.Benner 2016 Sibling Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 257, Ricker-cyc Four Year Old 50% p-level Forecast : 256,000

19 Data range: Brood Years No estimates yet for 2015 IFC Marine Survival Although based on in-season observations the survival is expected to be VERY LOW (per. comm., DFO, L. Ritchie and C. Parken) Therefore Chilko MS in 2016 would be expected to range from 1 to 5% (this falls b/w 10-25% p-level of the Chilko Power-smolt-Pi forecast)

20 Ocean Conditions State of the Ocean DFO Tech Report 3102 Editor: Ian Perry 22

21 Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016 Vertical distribution of the blob at Station Papa, Gulf of Alaska Fig. courtesy Howard Freeland (DFO,ret.)

22 Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016 The Blob moves to the coast of North America Reynold s data January 2014 Difference from normal temperatures January 2015 Difference from normal temperatures Very intense warm water (red: up to 3 C above normal) in NE Pacific, but cool (blue) along BC coast NE Pacific has cooled (blue), but warm water (red) moved to BC coast

23 Perry, Session S2, PICES 2015 Annual Meeting, Qingdao, China, 21 October 2014 The Blob in summer, 2015 Reynold s data July 2015 Difference from normal temperatures August 2015 Difference from normal temperatures The Blob is still evident at the surface in the NE Pacific, but less intense than previous months

24 Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016 Changes in water temperature are reflected in changes in zooplankton species composition northern-type zooplankton occurred along Vancouver Island in 1 st half of 2014 when water was cool (large nutritious species, good for fish) 1 mm but, southern-type zooplankton in 2 nd half of 2014 and in 2015 when water was warm (small poor quality species)

25 a Run timing group Forecast Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size Stocks Model b 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Early Stuart Ricker (Ei) 8,000 16,000 30,000 58, ,000 Early Summer 236, , ,000 1,603,000 2,963,000 Bowron MRS 6,000 11,000 21,000 40,000 72,000 Fennell power 10,000 16,000 27,000 47,000 78,000 Gates Larkin 46,000 79, , , ,000 Nadina MRJ 8,000 15,000 31,000 65, ,000 Pitt Larkin 33,000 51,000 79, , ,000 Scotch Ricker 48,000 85, , , ,000 Seymour Ricker 41,000 68, , , ,000 Misc (EShu) c RS (Scotch/Seymour) 33,000 74, , , ,000 Misc (Taseko) d R/S (Chilko) 1,000 2,000 4,000 7,000 9,000 Misc (Chilliwack) e RS (Esum) 4, 000 9,000 18,000 33,000 61,000 Misc (Nahatlatch) e RS (Esum) 6,000 14,000 27,000 49,000 92,000 Summer 1,701,000 2,681,000 4,675,000 8,764,000 16,511,000 Chilko power (juv) (Pi) 1,117,000 1,587,000 2,387,000 3,813,000 5,972,000 Quesnel Ricker-cyc 108, , , ,000 1,421,000 Late Stuart power 12,000 25,000 54, , ,000 Stellako Larkin 186, , , , ,000 Harrison f Adjusted RS1 255, ,000 1,414,000 3,487,000 7,858,000 Raft f Ricker (PDO) 15,000 23,000 36,000 56,000 87,000 Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 1,000 2,000 3,000 7,000 14,000 Misc (N. Thomp River) f & g R/S (Raft/Fennell) 5,000 10,000 18,000 37,000 74,000 Misc (Widgeon) f & h R/S (Birkenhead) 2,000 3,000 6,000 10,000 17,000 Late 419, ,000 1,236,000 2,210,000 3,998,000 Cultus MRJ 1,000 3,000 6,000 12,000 22,000 Late Shuswap Ricker-cyc 168, , , ,000 1,758,000 Portage Larkin 1,000 3,000 8,000 19,000 55,000 Weaver MRS 110, , , ,000 1,095,000 Birkenhead Ricker (Ei)+Sibling 120, , , , ,000 Misc Lillooet-Harrison i R/S (Birkenhead) 19,000 32,000 60, , ,000 Early Shuswap 35% Chilko 21% Harrison 15% Shuswap (Early + Late) TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON 2,364,000 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000

26 Summary (REALLY preliminary) Below Average Survival Signals (Possibly) Poor migration conditions in 2012 for Early Stuart and Early Summers and high pre-spawn (legacy effects on juveniles unknown but possible?) Extremely low CPUE in SOG for Fraser Sockeye 4sub2 Low CPUE in SOG for Harrison 3sub1 s IFC CO indicates poor Chilko MS Average Signals of Survival (Possibly) Proportion of empty stomachs of juveniles in SOG average Juvenile sizes above average for Chilko and other stocks In stock proportions at Mission/SOG/Forecasts although Chilko consistently high, other stocks different between samples Jack-to-4 yr forecasts same as forecast for Chilko and Stellako Uncertain Signals of Survival Warm Blob amplified in the 2013 OEY; strong throughout marine residence 28

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