Present and Future Upwelling off the Entrance to Juan de Fuca Strait
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1 Present and Future Upwelling off the Entrance to Juan de Fuca Strait Mike Foreman 1, Wendy Callendar 12, Amy MacFadyen 3, Barbara Hickey 3, Bill Merryfield 4, Badal Pal 4, Richard Thomson 1, Emanuele Di Lorenzo 5 1 Institute of Ocean Sciences, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, Canada 2 School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada 3 School of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, USA 4 Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, Canada 5 School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, USA
2 Outline Background oceanography Model details & validation Eddy generation studies Future climate studies Summary
3 The Region of Interest
4 Juan de Fuca (Tully) Eddy summer upwelling feature off the entrance to Juan de Fuca Strait Courtesy of Rick Thomson Not classical upwelling, as off Washington, Oregon, California comprised of nutrient-rich California Undercurrent water (Freeland & Denman, 1982) that moves up the Juan de Fuca and Tully Canyons onto the shelf Makes the SW Vancouver Island & northern Washington shelves one of most productive fishing regions in the NE Pacific (Ware & Thomson, 2005) Sept 2005 salinity at 5m depth
5 Background Physical Oceanography Strong tidal, estuarine, & winddriven flows in Juan de Fuca Strait Estuarine flow primarily from Fraser River Summer upwelling winds Courtesy of Rick Thomson
6 Physical Modelling (ROMS) Objective: What forcing causes eddy generation & what are the specific dynamics? Model details: Stretched grid: 1 to 5 km Temperature & salinity initial conditions from summer climatology Average summer winds from UW MM5 atmospheric model ( M 2, S 2, K 1, O 1 tidal forcing Strong TS nudging at JdF boundary to maintain estuarine flows Radiation &/or nudging conditions on N, S, W boundaries No Columbia River discharge
7 Tinis et al. (2006) verified MM5 winds with offshore buoy data
8 Model Experiments Experiment Objective Initial Conditions Tides Estuarine Flow Winds Duration A Baseline run Summer climatology yes yes yes 60 days B Role of winds Summer climatology no yes yes 60 days C Role of tides Summer climatology yes yes no 60 days D Role of estuarine flow T and S profiles yes no yes 60 days
9 Baseline Run: Validation Average (days 46-60) flows & salinity at 0, 35, 100 m depths
10 Baseline Run: Validation Mean flows & tides across Juan de Fuca Strait
11 Average (days 46-60) flows & salinity at 35 m depth Baseline vs Winds but no Tides vs Tides but no Winds
12 Average (days 46-60) flows & salinity at 35 m depth Baseline vs Winds but no Tides vs Winds & Tides but no Estuarine Flow
13 Eddy Development: Winds but no Tides Daily 35m salinity and velocity
14 Eddy Development: Winds but no Tides
15 Summary of Present-day Eddy Good agreement between summer observations & model Confidence in model dynamics Model suggests eddy is generated by enhanced upwelling off Cape Flattery Migrates westward to lie over Tully Canyon MERIS chlorophyll image: June 3, 2003 Courtesy of Jim Gower & Steph King Eddy generation requires estuarine flow & upwelling winds and/or tides Key = proximity of dense bottom water off Cape Flattery 200m depth contour only 4km away
16 What is the Future of the Juan de Fuca Eddy under Climate Change? Eddy is forced by a combination of winds, tides & estuarine flow How will each of them be affected? Tides no change Upwelling winds? Estuarine flow?
17 Changes to the Upwelling Winds network of 13 offshore buoys with re-analysis winds back to 1958 (Faucher( et al., 1999) i. Can evaluate climate model winds over observation period ii. Then look at climate model projections
18 Methodology 10m winds from 18 global climate model simulations PCMDI web site A1B emission scenario Interpolate, or take nearest value, to buoy locations compare monthly & seasonal averages over period look at projections for and
19 Evaluation of Ensemble Monthly Averages Seasonal direction changes captured reasonably well Near offshore summer upwelling winds captured reasonably well
20 Summer Evaluation of Individual Models
21 Projected Changes at Near offshore Buoys Conclusion: Slight changes in upwelling winds magnitude increase clockwise rotation
22 Changes to the Estuarine Flow Driven mainly by the Fraser River Future projections based on CCCMa IPCC AR3 output: Morrison et al., J. Hydrology, 2002 Summer discharge will be weaker but temperature will be warmer Still an estuarine flow in JdF Strait More study required with regional climate model
23 Summary: Present Upwelling Good agreement between summer observations & model Model suggests eddy is generated by enhanced upwelling off Cape Flattery Requirements = estuarine flow + upwelling winds and/or tides Key = proximity of dense bottom water off Cape Flattery No tides simulation
24 Summary Future Upwelling Tides won t change Summer upwelling winds slightly stronger Estuarine flow might be weaker? Juan de Fuca Eddy should remain but may be weaker More details in Foreman et al., 2008, JGR 113, doi: /2006jc Merryfield et al., 2008, submitted to JGR
25 Thanks for your interest!
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