Downscaling Global Warming with a Regional Ocean- Atmosphere Model over the Tropical Atlantic
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1 Downscaling Global Warming with a Regional Ocean- Atmosphere Model over the Tropical Atlantic Role of equatorial ocean dynamics: equatorial upwelling and ocean mesoscale variability Hyodae Seo and Shang-Ping Xie International Pacific Research Center University of Hawaii AGU December 16, 2009 Also thanks to Raghu Murtugudde, Markus Jochum, and Art Miller
2 Introduction: Weakening of Walker circulation and ocean heat transport Multi-model ensemble change (A1B-20C) in ω(500hpa) Vecchi and Soden 2007
3 Introduction: Weakening of Walker circulation and ocean heat transport Multi-model ensemble change (A1B-20C) in ω(500hpa) Vecchi and Soden 2007 τx >0 DEPTH #"!" "!!" "!!""!#"" "!!""!#""!!""!#"" Change in ocean heat transport " 29 1$!"$!%1&!"""34$!'()*4$!+,-.1&!""34$!//01&!" !"$ % &!""" 153$!1!167087%9:7087; $ !'()* zonal + vertical zonal 1.3$!1!67087%3 vertical 173$!1!:7087; ux > !+,-.&!"" Themocline feedback A"? B"? "= GFDL CM member ensemble ( ) - ( ) δ(-u T/ x) Equatorial upwelling 15 δ(-w T/ z) $ "C"< "C"D "C"B "C"# "C"! "!"C"!!"C"#!"C"B!"C"D!"C"<
4 Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) are the undulations of equatorial SST front in the Pacific and Atlantic. Generated by oceanic intrinsic instability. Primarily sub-seasonal, but important for low-frequency tropical climate. Not well-resolved in the IPCC-AR4 models. So we need to downscale.
5 Model and Experiments Scripps Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Regional Model * Atmosphere: Regional Spectral Model (Scripps RSM) Ocean: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) CTL RSM NCEP2 Flux SST ROMS SODA CTL: RSM (NCEP2 6hrly) + ROMS (SODA monthly) 25 km ROMS + 50 km RSM Daily coupling 28-yr. integration: * Seo, Miller and Roads, 2007: The Scripps Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) model, with applications in the eastern Pacific sector. Journal of Climate
6 Model and Experiments Scripps Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Regional Model * Atmosphere: Regional Spectral Model (Scripps RSM) Ocean: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) CTL RSM NCEP2 Flux SST ROMS SODA CTL: RSM (NCEP2 6hrly) + ROMS (SODA monthly) 25 km ROMS + 50 km RSM Daily coupling 28-yr. integration: GW RSM NCEP2+ δ Flux SST ROMS SODA+ δ δ=gfdl CM2.1 monthly difference: ( : A1B)-( : 20C) GW: RSM (NCEP2 6-hrly + δ) + ROMS (SODA monthly + δ) * Seo, Miller and Roads, 2007: The Scripps Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) model, with applications in the eastern Pacific sector. Journal of Climate
7 Model and Experiments Scripps Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Regional Model * Atmosphere: Regional Spectral Model (Scripps RSM) Ocean: Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) CTL RSM NCEP2 Flux SST ROMS SODA CTL: RSM (NCEP2 6hrly) + ROMS (SODA monthly) 25 km ROMS + 50 km RSM Daily coupling 28-yr. integration: GW RSM NCEP2+ δ Flux SST ROMS SODA+ δ δ=gfdl CM2.1 monthly difference: ( : A1B)-( : 20C) GW: RSM (NCEP2 6-hrly + δ) + ROMS (SODA monthly + δ) Quasi-steady state * Seo, Miller and Roads, 2007: The Scripps Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Regional (SCOAR) model, with applications in the eastern Pacific sector. Journal of Climate
8 Simulation of present-day climate and global warming response: Annual mean SST, surface winds, and precip.
9 Simulation of present-day climate Zonal SST gradient and equatorial cold tongue in SCOAR
10 Simulation of present-day climate Zonal SST gradient and equatorial cold tongue in SCOAR GW response Reduced warming in the equator Intensified cross-equatorial meridional winds
11 Change in equatorial zonal currents and equatorial instability SCOAR CTL Mean U SCOAR δu SEC EUC GFDL 20C Mean U GFDL δu EUC is more realistic (stronger) in SCOAR. Stronger crossequatorial wind Stronger EUC (Philander and Delecluse, 1983) Enhanced Barotropic and baroclinic instability Stronger TIWs
12 Strengthening of TIWs (20-40 day band-pass filtered EKE and SST variance) 5N 2.5N EQ 2.5S 5N 2.5N (a) CTL CTL EKE EKE 40W 20W 0E (c) CTL CTL SST SST Variance VAR 5N 2.5N EQ 2.5S 5N 2.5N GW (b) EKE GW EKE 40W 20W 0E GW SST Variance (d) GW SST VAR EKE and TIW-SST variance all become stronger during the cold season. EQ EQ S 40W 20W 0E 2.5S 40W 20W 0E Seasonal cycle of EKE (e) Climatology of EKE 150 CTL GW 100 Seasonal cycle of SST Variance (f) Climatology of SST VAR 0.1 CTL GW month month
13 Annual mean mixed layer ocean heat budget (30W-10W) δeddy-net δupwelling Equatorial upwelling (cooling) increases Increased w acting on climatological dt/dz >> Climatological <w> acting on dt /dz due to radiative forcing. Net eddy heat flux (warming) increases, damping the effect of upwelling.
14 Conclusion and Discussion Downscaling is also important for study of oceanic role in weather and climate. Advantages: Better capture equatorial currents and mesoscale variabilities Exploratory research: Coupled downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenarios Upwelling increases. TIWs increase. Impact the mean state. Need to monitor TIW heat flux(zonal) for detection of warming signal. Need to resolve high-freq. processes in the model for global warming research.
15 Thanks!
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