OREGON CORRECTIONS POPULATION FORECAST

Transcription

1 OREGON CORRECTIONS POPULATION FORECAST Theodore R. Kulongoski, GOVERNOR Prepared by the Department of Administrative Services Gary Weeks Director October 2003 Volume IX, No. 2

2 Department of Administrative Services Gary Weeks, Director Office of Economic Analysis Tom Potiowsky, State Economist Dae Baek, Deputy State Economist Michael Kennedy, Economist Kanhaiya Vaidya, Senior Demographer Suzanne Porter, Corrections Forecast Analyst Carrie Lovellette, Administrative Assistant

3 Oregon Corrections Population Forecast October 2003 Foreword The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) issues the Oregon Corrections Population Forecast. Executive Order EO and ORS direct OEA to issue this forecast each April and October. The Oregon Department of Corrections (DOC) uses the forecast for planning and budgeting. Two committees help OEA with the forecast. The Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee consists of ten members with expertise in the criminal justice system. Members are appointed by the Governor and serve four-year terms. The Committee helps OEA interpret current trends and set assumptions about the future. A separate technical advisory committee consists of people with expertise in forecasting and criminal justice data. They provide critical review and advice about forecasting methods. Readers with questions about the forecast may contact Suzanne Porter at (503) This forecast is available on the Internet at

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5 TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary... 1 I. Introduction... 5 II. Definitions... 5 III. Methodology... 7 IV. Intake Trends... 9 V. Recent Legislative Changes a. HB b. 72 nd Legislative Assembly (2003 Regular Legislative Session) VI. Prison Population Forecast a. Total Prison Population Forecast b. Base c. Measure d. Repeat Property Offenders e. Other Components VII. Community Supervision a. Felony Probation b. Parole and Post-Prison Supervision c. Local Control and Level III Sanctions VIII. Risks to the Forecast Appendix I: Corrections Population Forecast Detail Appendix II: HB 5100 Impact Assumptions Corrections Population Forecasting Advisory Committee iii

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7 Executive Summary This is a forecast of Oregon s felony correctional population over the next ten years. It consists of state prison inmates and offenders on community supervision. Prison Population The total prison population was 12,003 on July 1, It is forecast to grow by 7.1 percent to 12,852 by July It is forecast to grow by 9.8 percent to 13,178 by July 2005, the end of the current biennium. It is forecast to grow by 37.3 percent (4,478 beds) to 16,481 between July 2003 and July Forty-four percent of the total growth is directly or indirectly due to the passage of Ballot Measure 11. Measure 11 mandates minimum sentences for any of 21 violent crimes. The sentences range from Prison Population Forecast Current vs. Previous Date Oct-03 Apr-03 Difference Pct Difference Jul-03 12,003 11, % Jan-04 12,435 12, % Jul-04 12,852 12, % Jul-05 13,178 13, % Jul-06 13,657 13, % Jul-07 14,140 13, % Jul-08 14,625 14, % Jul-09 15,094 14, % Jul-10 15,520 15, % Jul-11 15,888 15, % Jul-12 16,183 15, % Jul-13 16, to 300 months. Another 7.8 percent of total growth can be attributed to a series of repeat property offender laws passed between 1996 and The forecast is 157 beds higher than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 142 beds higher than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 405 beds higher than the previous forecast for July Community Supervision These are offenders on felony probation, post-prison supervision, parole, or Local Control 2. Community supervision of felony offenders is funded by the State of Oregon. The felony probation caseload was 18,263 on April 1, After falling by 1.5 percent by July 2003, it is forecast to grow by 2.8 percent to 18,502 by July Then it is expected to remain stable through the 1 Oregon s fiscal year (FY) runs from July 1 through June 30. Felony Probation Caseload Forecast Current vs. Previous Date Oct-03 Apr-03 Difference Pct. Difference Apr-03 Apr-03 18,263 18, Jul-03 Jul-03 17,997 18, Jul-04 Jul-04 18,502 18, Jul-05 Jul-05 18,560 18, Jul-06 Jul-06 18,639 18, Jul-07 Jul-07 18,841 19, Jul-08 Jul-08 19,120 19, Jul-09 Jul-09 19,398 19, Jul-10 Jul-10 19,662 20, Jul-11 Jul-11 19,866 20, Jul-12 Jul-12 20,042 20, Apr-13 Apr-13 20,052 2 Local Control refers to felony offenders sentenced to 12 or fewer months of incarceration. They are supervised at the local level. See definition on page 6.

8 end of the biennium. The caseload is forecast to grow by 9.8 percent (1,789 cases) to 20,052 between April 2003 and April The forecast is 381 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 266 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 319 cases lower than the previous forecast for July The parole and post prison supervision caseload was 11,519 on April 1, After falling by 3.4 percent by July 2004, it is forecast to grow by 2.6 percent to 11,415 by July The caseload is forecast to grow by 18 percent (2,075 cases) to 13,594 between April 2003 and April The forecast is 80 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 132 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 385 cases lower than the previous forecast for July The Local Control and Level III Sanctions population was 1,440 on April 1, After falling by 16.6 percent by July 2003, it is forecast to grow by 33.8 percent to 1,606 by July Then it is expected to grow by 4.3 percent to 1,675 by the end of the current biennium, July The population is forecast to grow by 33.7 percent (486 beds) to 1,926 between April 2003 and April The forecast is 62 beds lower than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 63 Parole and Post-Prison Supervision Caseload Forecast Current vs. Previous Pct. Date Oct-03 Apr-03 Difference Difference Apr-03 11,519 11, % Jul-03 11,291 11, % Jul-04 11,127 11, % Jul-05 11,415 11, % Jul-06 11,662 11, % Jul-07 11,938 12, % Jul-08 12,285 12, % Jul-09 12,598 12, % Jul-10 12,886 13, % Jul-11 13,156 13, % Jul-12 13,428 13, % Apr-13 13,594 Local Control and Level III Sanctions Population Forecast Current vs. Previous Pct. Date Oct-03 Apr-03 Difference Difference Apr-03 1,440 1, % Jul-03 1,201 1, % Jul-04 1,606 1, % Jul-05 1,675 1, % Jul-06 1,720 1, % Jul-07 1,759 1, % Jul-08 1,793 1, % Jul-09 1,825 1, % Jul-10 1,856 1, % Jul-11 1,884 1, % Jul-12 1,912 1, % Apr-13 1,926 beds lower than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 82 beds lower than the previous forecast for July

9 The total forecast is the sum of several separate forecasts of offender groups. The table below shows the forecast change for these groups for the current and the next biennia. These groups are defined in Section II, pages 5 and 6. Corrections Population Forecast Current vs. Previous Forecast as of: July 1, 2005 July 1, 2007 Current Previous Difference Current Previous Difference Base 6,697 6, ,849 6, Measure 11 5,174 5, ,893 5, Repeat Property Offenders 1,260 1, ,337 1,346-8 Felony APSO Repeat Sex Offenders Total Prison Population 13,178 13, ,140 13, Felony Probation 18,560 18, ,841 19, Parole/Post-Prison Supervision 11,415 11, ,938 12, Local Control 1,241 1, ,295 1, Level III Sanctions Total Local Control/Sanctions 1,675 1, ,759 1, Columns and rows may not add to total due to rounding. Risks to the Forecast Uncertainty over funding is the most significant risk to this forecast. The 72 nd Legislative Assembly passed a temporary income tax surcharge and other tax changes in order to avoid further cuts to education, human services, and public safety (House Bill 2152). Currently, signatures are being collected to qualify a referendum (IRR 401) for the February 3, 2004 special election. IRR 401 could repeal HB 2152 and trigger $544.6 million in budget cuts. We would expect a significant impact on correctional populations if IRR 401 becomes law. HB 5100, passed during the 2002 Fifth Special Legislative Session, ordered significant reductions in the biennial budget. The impact to this forecast is mainly the result of reduced funding for indigent defense. From March 3 through June 30, 2003, indigent defense counsel was appointed only for the most serious felonies. This resulted in a delay in prosecuting less serious felonies until the beginning of the current fiscal year, July 1, This forecast assumes that an effort will be made to increase capacity beyond what was typical before the HB 5100 reductions in order to process the deferred (bulge) cases. Although funding has been restored for the time being, many criminal justice agencies have been hesitant to restore spending levels until the outcome of IRR 401 is known. In 3

10 view of this, the number of bulge cases expected to move through the system in late 2003 has been lowered from the previous forecast. The combined effects of HB 5100 and IRR 401 pose a risk to the community corrections forecasts in particular. These forecasts will be too high if the bulge cases anticipated for late 2003 do not materialize. Over the past few years there has been a slight shift in sentencing practices that resulted in more prison intakes and fewer Local Control intakes. As a result, each prison population forecast from April 2002 to the current effort has called for an increase in prison population over the previous forecast. Forecasts are based on current practice, including disposition rates. If disposition practices continue to shift toward prison sentences, the result would be continued increases in the prison population beyond what was forecast and budgeted for the biennium. 4

11 I. Introduction This is a forecast of Oregon s felony correctional population over the next ten years. It consists of state prison inmates and felony offenders on community supervision. Community supervision includes those on felony probation, post-prison supervision, parole, or Local Control. Community supervision of felony offenders is funded by the State of Oregon. The Office of Economic Analysis (OEA) develops each forecast with the help of the Corrections Population Forecast Advisory Committee. The Governor appoints committee members. They work in the criminal justice system as lawyers, judges, law enforcement officials, and corrections administrators. The committee provides insight into recent trends and critical review of the forecast. II. Definitions Base Population Most prison intakes are not sentenced under one of the special laws listed below. These inmates are sentenced under Sentencing Guidelines (ORS ). We refer to them as the base prison population. Sentencing Guidelines establish a range of punishment based on the crime of conviction and the offender s criminal history. This range is called the presumptive sentence. The Court may impose a sentence outside the presumptive range if there are aggravating or mitigating facts. A sentence outside of the presumptive range is called a departure. A Guidelines sentence can be reduced only by credit for time already served, and by earned-time credit. If the Court deems the inmate eligible, the Department of Corrections (DOC) can award earned-time credit for good behavior. The maximum available is 20 percent of the sentence. Measure 11 Measure 11 (ORS and 707) was passed by Oregon voters and took effect in April It mandates minimum sentences for any of 21 violent crimes, ranging from 70 to 300 months. Measure 11 sentences cannot be shortened by earned-time credit. Juveniles aged 15 and older who are charged with a Measure 11 crime are automatically waived into the adult justice system. Repeat Property Offenders ORS took effect in July It established 13 or 19 month presumptive sentences for repeat property offenders (RPOs). The 1999 Legislative Assembly created the crime of Identity Theft (ORS ) and added it to the list of crimes covered by RPO. The 2001 Legislative Assembly added Forgery 1 to the RPO list. The 2001 legislative change took effect July 1,

12 Felony Driving under the Influence of Intoxicants ORS (5) was passed during the 1999 Legislative Session. Under this law, the fourth or subsequent conviction for driving under the influence of intoxicants is a felony rather than a misdemeanor. The law also makes most convictions for driving while suspended a misdemeanor rather than a felony. This law appears to be fully implemented and is now included in the Base population. Felony Assaulting a Public Safety Officer (APSO) APSO was made a Class C felony by the 2001 Legislative Assembly. It is classified under Sentencing Guidelines as crime seriousness category 6. This carries a presumptive sentence range of 2 years probation to 30 months incarceration. Repeat Sex Offenders The 2001 Legislative Assembly enhanced sentences for repeat sex offenders (RSOs). ORS makes the presumptive sentence life without parole for the third felony sex offense conviction. Local Control (LC) ORS took effect in January It pertains to these felony offenders: Convicted of a felony and sentenced to 12 or fewer months incarceration. Revoked from felony community supervision and sentenced to 12 or fewer months incarceration. Level III Sanctions These are felons that are sanctioned 3 to 31 to 90 days while on probation, parole, or post-prison supervision. Local Control and Level III Sanctions offenders were part of the state prison population until Now they are under county jurisdiction, but funded by the Oregon Department of Corrections. Felony Probation, Parole, and Post-Prison Supervision The caseload published here includes all actively supervised felony probationers and parolees. It includes offenders with an Oregon sentence who are supervised in another state. 4 Most offenders on outcount status are not included. Outcount means the offender is not being supervised. Absconding is the most common reason for being placed on outcount. Parole pertains to released prison inmates who committed their crime before November 1, 1989, when Sentencing Guidelines took effect. Inmates sentenced under Guidelines serve a term of Post-Prison Supervision (PPS) after release from prison or LC. 3 A sanction is a punishment for violating of the terms of community supervision. 4 These are called Compact Out or CMPO cases. 6

13 III. Methodology The forecast starts with the stock population in prison or on supervision on a given date. The prison forecast starts with the population on July 1, The community supervision forecast starts with the caseload on April 1, At OEA, we forecast populations for the first of each month. We add intakes and subtract releases to get the population for the next month. For example, the equation for the August 1, 2003 prison population is: Population on July 1, 2003: 12,003 Add July 2003 intakes: +396 Subtract July 2003 releases: -326 Population on August 1, 2003: 12,073 Therefore, OEA s efforts are directed to forecasting intakes and releases. We use a flow model for the forecast. It imitates the flow of offenders at various points in the criminal justice system. These points are arrest, prosecution, sentencing, incarceration, release, and revocation (failure). Our forecasts of prison and community supervision are interconnected. Prison and LC intakes are partly dependent on offenders who fail probation. Parole/PPS intakes are dependent on prison and LC releases, and prison and LC intakes in turn are affected by parole/pps failures. Oregon has enacted several sentencing laws since These laws affect releases because they change the length of stay. New laws interact with existing laws and cause changes in intakes. For example, prison intake growth under a new law may coincide with a decrease in probation intakes under the old law. We forecast offender groups separately according to major law changes. The total forecast is the sum of these smaller groups. New Intakes About half of intakes to various felony populations are new to the system and half are transfers within the system. To forecast new 5 intakes to the felony system, we study historical trends in Oregon s population, arrests, felony case filings, and incarceration rate. We forecast arrest rates and apply those rates to Oregon s population forecast. The result is a forecast of total arrests. We apply current sentencing practices to future arrests to get a forecast of new intakes to prison, probation, and Local Control. Transfers Offenders who move from probation to incarceration are forecast by finding the probability of failing in each month after starting probation. A failure is a revocation of the probation sentence or conviction for a new crime that results in incarceration. We apply the probabilities to the forecast of new probation intakes described above (New 5 New means the offender is not already serving a felony sentence at the time of the new conviction. 7

14 Intakes). The result is the number of offenders who enter prison or Local Control from probation in each month of the forecast. Offenders who move from parole/pps to incarceration are forecast in the same way. We determine the probability of failing in each month after starting supervision. We apply the probabilities to the forecast of releases described below (Prison Releases). The result is the number of offenders who enter prison or Local Control from parole/pps in each month of the forecast. Future intake trends can be affected by factors not reflected in historical data, so the intake forecast may be adjusted based on input from the Advisory Committee. Prison Releases Prison inmates serve determinate sentences. They serve the sentence imposed by the Court. If the Court chooses, the inmate is eligible for up to 20 percent earned time credit for good behavior in prison. In the forecast, inmates in prison as of July 1, 2003 are released according to the projected release date provided by the Department of Corrections (DOC). This date is based on the sentence, credit for time served, earned time credit already awarded, and an estimate of additional credit to be earned in the future. Future prison intakes are released according to lengths of stay (LOS) typical of the last one or two years. LOS is expressed in months. It is the difference between the date of intake and the projected or actual release date. Prison and Local Control releases are used to forecast intakes to the parole/pps caseload. Community Supervision Releases Offenders on community supervision have an indeterminate LOS. The Court sentences inmates to a term of probation or post-prison supervision, but many terms end early. There are many reasons for this: revocation, commission of a new crime, or placement on inactive supervision for good behavior. To determine LOS, we use a method called survival probability. By analyzing thousands of offenders over many years, we determine the probability of supervision terms ending in each month after intake. For more information, the Annual Review of Methodology is available from the sources listed in the Foreword. 8

15 IV. Intake Trends Figure 1 shows how intake trends have changed during the past eleven years. Note that Local Control intakes have declined in the last two years, while prison intakes have increased. This reflects a slight shift in sentencing patterns toward prison sentences and away from Local Control. The reasons for major historical changes in each category are noted below. Figure 1: Oregon Statewide Felony Intakes No. of Intakes Prison Sentence >12 mos. Local Control/<12 mos Probation Parole/PPS Type of Intake by Year (Community corrections year ends 3/31; prison is fiscal year) Prison (Sentence Greater than 12 Months) This category consists of inmates sentenced to more than one year. Prison intakes of this nature have risen every year since During , Measure 11 indirectly fueled part of the increase. Intakes for the 21 crimes covered by Measure 11 did not increase, but intakes for similar crimes did. We call these crimes Measure 11 related. For example, Measure 11 covers Assault I and Assault II. Measure 11 related assault crimes are Attempted Assault I, Attempted Assault II, and Assault III. Intakes for Measure 11 related crimes nearly tripled between fiscal year (FY) and Offenders sentenced to 12 to 15 months have been a source of intake growth since Initially, this was a possible response to Local Control (LC). Beginning January 1, 1997, offenders sentenced to 12 or fewer months were incarcerated at the county, rather than in state institutions. After LC took effect, prison intakes with sentences of 12 to 15 months nearly quadrupled, from 105 in 1996 to 412 in Growth has 6 Oregon s fiscal year (FY) runs from July 1 through June 30. 9

16 continued since then, averaging 24 percent annually. There were 1,086 such intakes in FY In FY 2003, prison intakes increased to 4,703 from 4,430 in 2002 (6.2 percent). Measure 11 and Repeat Property Offenders contributed most of the growth. Measure 11 intakes increased by 14 percent in FY 2003 after three years of decline. Most of the growth came from those convicted of sex offenses or robbery. Repeat property (RPO) intakes increased in spite of the effect of HB 5100 (see section V, below). Most RPO growth came from those convicted of burglary, auto theft, and theft. Felony Probation The large increases in probation intakes from 1994 through were due to drug convictions. The increase in 1999 was fueled by Assault IV convictions. Assault IV was elevated from a misdemeanor to a felony for domestic violence cases. In the last two years, little change has occurred in probation intakes. Local Control and Prison Sentences Less than 12 Months Local Control (LC) took effect in Before then, incarcerated felons went to prison regardless of the sentence length. Nearly 70 percent of FY 1996 prison intakes were sentenced to 12 or fewer months. Of those, 45 percent had a new conviction and 55 percent were revoked from probation or parole/pps with no new conviction. The percentage of the latter has grown consistently since LC took effect. Revocations with no new conviction accounted for 77 percent of LC intakes in the year ending April 1, Probation revocations alone accounted for nearly half of all LC intakes. LC intakes grew consistently from 1999 through 2001, then declined in 2002 and Intakes have declined by 10 percent since Monthly intakes averaged 397 during 2003, down from 441 in Most of the decrease came from Multnomah County. Parole and Post-Prison Supervision Parole and PPS intakes have increased each year since LC releases caused the growth from 1999 through LC releases have declined since 2001, but they have been more than offset by prison releases. Prison releases increased among inmates who had been incarcerated for Measure 11 and related offenses, property and drug crimes, and the 1999 felony drunken-driving law. 7 Community supervision intakes are based on twelve-month periods from April 1 st to March 31 st. 10

17 V. Recent Legislative Changes a. HB 5100 HB 5100, passed during the 2002 Fifth Special Legislative Session, ordered a 9 percent reduction in the biennial court budget. Since the reductions were compressed into the last four months of the biennium, they amounted to a 30 percent reduction in operations for that period. The detailed assumptions used to develop the impacts are shown in Appendix II at the end of this document. Tables 1 and 2 shows the impact of HB 5100 on the various correctional populations. The impact to this forecast is mainly due to reduced funding for indigent defense. From March 3 through June 30, 2003, indigent defense counsel was appointed only for the most serious felonies. This resulted in significant delay in prosecution of less serious felonies until the beginning of the current fiscal year, July 1, Table 1: Impact of HB 5100 on Prison Population Current Previous Current Previous Current Previous Current Previous Date Base Base Diff. M11 M11 Diff. RPO RPO Diff. Total Total Diff. Jul Jan Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Table 2: Impact of HB 5100 on Community Corrections Caseloads Date Current Previous Current Parole/ Previous Parole/ Current Local Previous Local Total Comm. Total Comm. Probation Probation Diff. PPS PPS Diff. Control Control Diff. Corr. Corr. Diff. Apr Jul ,264-1, Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

18 We assumed in the previous forecast that HB 5100 would result in the July 1, 2003 prison population being 176 beds lower than it otherwise would have been. We have not changed that assumption in the current forecast. OEA does not have access to the information needed to calculate the actual impact of HB 5100 thus far, but there is evidence that HB 5100 affected correctional populations. For example: Most repeat property (RPO) offenders are charged with the kinds of crimes that were deferred under HB RPO intakes had been increasing - by 17 percent in the last quarter of 2002 and by 43 percent in the first quarter of An average of 87 RPO inmates per month entered prison in the first quarter of In the second quarter, after HB 5100 took effect, the average was 62 intakes per month, a 29 percent reduction. Probation revocations for non-person crimes were also targeted for deferral under HB Most probation revocations result in a Local Control sentence. During April 2003, the Local Control population dropped by 11.6 percent to 953. Since its full implementation in 1997, the LC population has not been below 1,000. This forecast assumes that an effort will be made to increase capacity beyond what was typical before the reductions in order to process some of the deferred (bulge) cases. This increase occurs in the fall of 2003 and gradually declines through December The analysis includes some slippage due to offenders who fail to appear in court. While funding has been restored for the time being, the potential exists for more budget cuts (see Risks, section VIII). Some criminal justice agencies are waiting to rehire staff and make other restorations until the budget picture clears. Consequently, the number of bulge cases expected in late 2003 has been lowered slightly in this forecast. b. 72 nd Legislative Assembly (2003 Regular Legislative Session) Correctional populations were funded according to the April 2003 forecast, less $1.4 million for an expected reduction in prison population created by a new alternative incarceration program (House Bill 2647). Inmates would earn additional time off their sentence by successfully completing this program. The program is not modeled in this forecast. At present, there is insufficient information to develop a useful impact forecast. DOC expects to have 100 inmates in the program by year s end. Information for modeling the impact of the program will be available for the next forecast (April 2004). 12

19 VI. Prison Population Forecast a. Total Prison Population Forecast Figure 2 shows the current and previous prison population forecasts. Table 3 shows the change between the forecasts, and Table 4 shows intake growth rates. The total prison population was 12,003 on July 1, It is forecast to grow by 7.1 percent to 12,852 by July It is forecast to grow by 9.8 percent to 13,178 by July 2005, the end of the current biennium. It is forecast to grow by 37.3 percent (4,478 beds) to 16,481 between July 2003 and July Figure 2: Total Prison Population Forecast Current Previous 0 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Table 3: Prison Population Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Jul-03 12,003 11, % Jan-04 12,435 12, % Jul-04 12,852 12, % Jul-05 13,178 13, % Jul-06 13,657 13, % Jul-07 14,140 13, % Jul-08 14,625 14, % Jul-09 15,094 14, % Jul-10 15,520 15, % Jul-11 15,888 15, % Jul-12 16,183 15, % Jul-13 16,481 Table 4: Intakes and Growth Rates No. FY Intakes Growth Rate % % % % % % % % % % 13

20 Forty-four percent of the total growth is directly or indirectly due to the passage of Ballot Measure 11. Measure 11 mandates minimum sentences for any of 21 violent crimes. The sentences range from 70 to 300 months. Another 7.8 percent of total growth can be attributed to a series of repeat property offender laws passed between 1996 and The forecast is 157 beds higher than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 142 beds higher than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 405 beds higher than the previous forecast for July The change in the forecast is due to an increase in expected intakes for Measure 11 and Base inmates. b. Base The base includes all inmates not covered by one of Oregon s major new sentencing laws. Most prison intakes are in the base category, and they currently comprise the largest inmate group in prison. Most base inmates are sentenced under Sentencing Guidelines. Figure 3 shows the current and previous forecasts. Table 5 shows the change between the forecasts, and Table 6 shows intake growth rates. Figure 3: Base Population Forecast Current Previous 0 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 14

21 The current forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast. This is because more intakes are expected than in the previous forecast, and because typical lengths of stay have increased slightly. Table 5: Base Population Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Jul-03 6,481 6, % Jan-04 6,568 6, % Jul-04 6,734 6, % Jul-05 6,697 6, % Jul-06 6,778 6, % Jul-07 6,849 6, % Jul-08 6,941 6, % Jul-09 6,996 6, % Jul-10 7,035 6, % Jul-11 7,062 6, % Jul-12 7,072 6, % Jul-13 7,113 Table 6: Base Intakes and Growth Rates No. FY Intakes Growth Rate % % % % % % % % % % c. Measure 11 Measure 11 (ORS and 707) took effect in April The law mandates minimum sentences for 21 serious violent crimes. The sentences range from 70 to 300 months. Measure 11 is responsible for most prison population growth since Figure 4 shows the current and previous forecasts. Table 7 shows the change between the two forecasts, and Table 8 shows intake growth rates. Figure 4: Measure 11 Population Forecast Current Previous 0 Jul-03 Nov-03 Mar-04 Jul-04 Nov-04 Mar-05 Jul-05 Nov-05 Mar-06 Jul-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Jul-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Jul-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Jul-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 15

22 Table 7: M11 Population Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Jul-03 4,484 4,489 (5) -0.1% Jan-04 4,656 4, % Jul-04 4,856 4, % Jul-05 5,174 5, % Jul-06 5,526 5, % Jul-07 5,893 5, % Jul-08 6,241 6, % Jul-09 6,621 6, % Jul-10 6,990 6, % Jul-11 7,303 7, % Jul-12 7,561 7, % Jul-13 7,795 Table 8: M11 Intakes and Growth Rates No. FY Intakes Growth Rate % % % % % % % % % % Overall, the current forecast is higher than the previous forecast because there are slightly more intakes expected during the forecast. Measure 11 intakes increased by 14 percent in FY 2003 after three years of decline. The previous forecast called for no intake growth in FY 2004, while the current forecast calls for moderate growth during FY This increase in growth rates caused most of the change in the M11 forecast. d. Repeat Property Offenders This law (ORS ) took effect in July It established 13 or 19-month presumptive sentences for repeat property offenders (RPOs). The 1999 Legislative Assembly created the crime of Identity Theft (ORS ) and added it to the list of crimes covered by RPO. The 2001 Legislative Assembly added Forgery 1 to the RPO list. The 2001 legislative change took effect July 1, Figure 5 shows the current and previous forecasts. Table 9 shows the change between the forecasts, and Table 10 shows intake growth rates. There is negligible change in the RPO forecast. The RPO laws are responsible for about 7.8 percent of total forecast growth. 16

23 Figure 5: Repeat Property Offender Population Forecast Current Previous 0 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Table 9: RPO Population Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Jul-03 1,013 1,031 (18) -1.7% Jan-04 1,174 1, % Jul-04 1,220 1,256 (36) -2.9% Jul-05 1,260 1,281 (21) -1.6% Jul-06 1,299 1,310 (11) -0.9% Jul-07 1,337 1,346 (8) -0.6% Jul-08 1,376 1,379 (4) -0.3% Jul-09 1,404 1,406 (3) -0.2% Jul-10 1,417 1,432 (15) -1.0% Jul-11 1,439 1,452 (13) -0.9% Jul-12 1,460 1,474 (14) -1.0% Jul-13 1,476 Table 10: RPO Intakes and Growth Rates No. FY Intakes Growth Rate % % % % % % % % % % 17

24 e. Other Components There are two inmate groups created by relatively recent legislation. They are repeat sex offenders (RSOs), and felony assaulting a public safety officer (APSO). These forecasts are shown in Figure 6 and Table 11. There are negligible changes in these forecasts. Figure 6: Other Components 120 Repeat Sex Offenders 100 Felony APSO Previous Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Table 11: Other Components Forecast and Comparison Date RSOs APSO Total Previous Change Jul Jan Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

25 VII. Community Supervision a. Felony Probation This caseload consists of all actively supervised felony probationers. It includes offenders with an Oregon sentence who are supervised in other states 8. Most offenders on outcount status are not included. Outcount means the offender is not being supervised. Absconding is the most common reason for being placed on outcount. Figure 7 shows the current and previous probation caseload forecasts. Table 12 shows the change between the forecasts, and Table 13 shows intake growth rates. The felony probation caseload was 18,263 on April 1, After falling by 1.5 percent by July 2003, it is forecast to grow by 2.8 percent to 18,502 by July Then it is expected to remain stable through the end of the biennium. The caseload is forecast to grow by 9.8 percent (1,789 cases) to 20,052 between April 2003 and April Figure 7: Felony Probation Caseload Forecast Current Previous Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 The forecast is 381 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 266 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 319 cases lower than the previous forecast for July Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 8 These are called Compact Out or CMPO cases. 19

26 The probation caseload forecast has been lowered because the previous forecast was 351 cases lower than the actual caseload as of April 1, In addition, the number of expected intakes has been lowered slightly in the current forecast. Table 12: Felony Probation Caseload Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Apr-03 Apr-03 18,263 18, Jul-03 Jul-03 17,997 18, Jul-04 Jul-04 18,502 18, Jul-05 Jul-05 18,560 18, Jul-06 Jul-06 18,639 18, Jul-07 Jul-07 18,841 19, Jul-08 Jul-08 19,120 19, Jul-09 Jul-09 19,398 19, Jul-10 Jul-10 19,662 20, Jul-11 Jul-11 19,866 20, Jul-12 Jul-12 20,042 20, Apr-13 Apr-13 20,052 Table 13: Probation Intakes and Growth Rates Year Ending No. Apr. Intakes b. Parole and Post-Prison Supervision This caseload includes all actively supervised offenders on parole, postprison supervision, or both. It includes offenders with an Oregon sentence who are supervised in another state (CMPO). Most offenders on outcount status are not included. Outcount means the offender is not being supervised. Absconding is the most common reason for being placed on outcount. Parole pertains to released prison inmates who committed their crime before November 1, 1989, when Sentencing Guidelines took effect. Inmates sentenced under Guidelines serve a term of Post-Prison Supervision (PPS) after release from prison or LC. Figure 8 shows the current and previous parole/pps caseload forecasts. Table 14 shows the change between the forecasts, and Table 15 shows intake growth rates. The parole and post prison supervision caseload was 11,519 on April 1, After falling by 3.4 percent by July 2004, it is forecast to grow by 2.6 percent to 11,415 by July The caseload is forecast to grow by 18 percent (2,075 cases) to 13,594 between April 2003 and April The forecast is 80 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year, July It is 132 cases lower than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 385 cases lower than the previous forecast for July Growth Rate % % % % % % % % % % 20

27 The current forecast is lower because fewer caseload intakes are expected than in the previous forecast. As seen in the previous and next sections, the probation and Local Control (LC) forecasts have been lowered. More than half of all LC intakes come from the probation caseload. When offenders are released from LC, they enter the parole/post-prison supervision caseload. When the probation caseload forecast is lowered, LC intakes, releases and ultimately parole/pps intakes are similarly affected. Figure 8: Parole/Post Prison Supervision Caseload Forecast Current Previous 0 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Table 14: Parole & Post-Prison Supervision Caseload Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Apr-03 11,519 11, % Jul-03 11,291 11, % Jul-04 11,127 11, % Jul-05 11,415 11, % Jul-06 11,662 11, % Jul-07 11,938 12, % Jul-08 12,285 12, % Jul-09 12,598 12, % Jul-10 12,886 13, % Jul-11 13,156 13, % Jul-12 13,428 13, % Apr-13 13,594 Table 15: Parole/PPS Intakes and Growth Rates Year Ending No. Apr. Intakes ,517 Growth Rate , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % 21

28 c. Local Control and Level III Sanctions Local control started on January 1, ORS places felons sentenced to incarceration of 12 months or fewer in county custody, or Local Control (LC). These offenders can be convicted of a new crime or revoked from felony community supervision. In addition, the State reimburses counties for offenders sanctioned to 31 to 90 days 9. Most of these offenders serve time in jail, but some are sentenced to work crews, electronic house arrest, or other alternatives. Figure 9 shows the current and previous LC and Sanctions forecasts. Table 16 shows the change between the forecasts, and Table 17 shows intake growth rates. Figure 9: Local Control and Level III Sanctions Population Forecast Current Previous 0 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 The Local Control and Sanctions population was 1,440 on April 1, After falling by 16.6 percent by July 2003 (a result of HB 5100), it is forecast to grow by 33.8 percent to 1,606 by July Then it is expected to grow by 4.3 percent to 1,675 by the end of the biennium, July The population is forecast to grow by 33.7 percent (486 beds) to 1,926 between April 2003 and April The forecast is 62 beds lower than the previous forecast for the end of this fiscal year. It is 63 beds lower than the previous forecast for the end of the current biennium, July It is 82 beds lower than the previous forecast for July Called Level III Sanctions. See definition on page 6. 22

29 Table 16: Local Control and Level III Sanctions Forecast and Comparison Percent Date Current Previous Change Change Apr-03 1,440 1, % Jul-03 1,201 1, % Jul-04 1,606 1, % Jul-05 1,675 1, % Jul-06 1,720 1, % Jul-07 1,759 1, % Jul-08 1,793 1, % Jul-09 1,825 1, % Jul-10 1,856 1, % Jul-11 1,884 1, % Jul-12 1,912 1, % Apr Table 17: Local Control & Sanctions Intakes and Growth Rates Year Ending No. Apr. Intakes ,329 Growth Rate , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % , % Forecast begins 2004 The current forecast is lower than the previous forecast because fewer intakes are expected. This is because the probation forecast has been lowered. More than half of LC intakes come from the probation caseload, either due to a technical revocation or a new conviction. When the probation caseload forecast is lowered, the LC forecast is similarly affected. VIII. Risks to the Forecast Uncertainty over funding is the most significant risk to this forecast. The 72 nd Legislative Assembly passed a temporary income tax surcharge and other tax changes in order to avoid further cuts to education, human services, and public safety (House Bill 2152). Currently, signatures are being collected to qualify a referendum (IRR 401) for the February 3, 2004 special election. IRR 401 could repeal HB 2152 and trigger $544.6 million in budget cuts. We would expect a significant impact on correctional populations if IRR 401 becomes law. HB 5100, passed during the 2002 Fifth Special Legislative Session, impacted this forecast mainly as a result of reduced funding for indigent defense. From March 3 through June 30, 2003, indigent defense counsel was appointed only for the most serious felonies. This resulted in a delay in prosecuting less serious felonies until the beginning of the current fiscal year, July 1, This forecast assumes that an effort will be made to increase capacity beyond what was typical before the HB 5100 reductions in order to process the deferred (bulge) cases. Although funding has been restored for the time being, many criminal justice agencies 23

30 have been hesitant to restore spending levels until the outcome of IRR 401 is known. In view of this, the number of bulge cases expected to move through the system in late 2003 has been lowered from the previous forecast. The combined effects of HB 5100 and IRR 401 pose a risk to the community corrections forecasts in particular. These forecasts will be too high if the bulge cases anticipated for late 2003 do not materialize. Over the past few years there has been a slight shift in sentencing practices that resulted in more prison intakes and fewer Local Control intakes. As a result, each prison population forecast from April 2002 to the current effort has called for an increase in prison population over the previous forecast. Forecasts are based on current practice, including disposition rates. If disposition practices continue to shift toward prison sentences, the result would be continued increases in the prison population beyond what was forecast and budgeted for the biennium. 24

31 Appendix I: Corrections Population Forecast Detail October 2003 Prison Population Forecast Period Current Previous Difference Period Current Previous Difference Jul-03 12,003 11, Jul-08 14,625 14, Aug-03 12,073 12, Aug-08 14,672 14, Sep-03 12,020 12, Sep-08 14,707 14, Oct-03 12,145 12, Oct-08 14,767 14, Nov-03 12,216 12, Nov-08 14,813 14, Dec-03 12,337 12, Dec-08 14,854 14, Jan-04 12,435 12, Jan-09 14,891 14, Feb-04 12,545 12, Feb-09 14,927 14, Mar-04 12,616 12, Mar-09 14,968 14, Apr-04 12,681 12, Apr-09 14,991 14, May-04 12,744 12, May-09 15,032 14, Jun-04 12,822 12, Jun-09 15,063 14, Jul-04 12,852 12, Jul-09 15,094 14, Aug-04 12,864 12, Aug-09 15,122 14, Sep-04 12,899 12, Sep-09 15,155 14, Oct-04 12,893 12, Oct-09 15,194 14, Nov-04 12,915 12, Nov-09 15,223 14, Dec-04 12,953 12, Dec-09 15,255 14, Jan-05 12,972 12, Jan-10 15,290 14, Feb-05 13,008 12, Feb-10 15,330 14, Mar-05 13,056 12, Mar-10 15,371 14, Apr-05 13,060 12, Apr-10 15,414 15, May-05 13,103 12, May-10 15,446 15, Jun-05 13,151 12, Jun-10 15,474 15, Jul-05 13,178 13, Jul-10 15,520 15, Aug-05 13,224 13, Aug-10 15,546 15, Sep-05 13,255 13, Sep-10 15,581 15, Oct-05 13,317 13, Oct-10 15,610 15, Nov-05 13,348 13, Nov-10 15,642 15, Dec-05 13,361 13, Dec-10 15,673 15, Jan-06 13,383 13, Jan-11 15,707 15, Feb-06 13,429 13, Feb-11 15,727 15, Mar-06 13,489 13, Mar-11 15,760 15, Apr-06 13,542 13, Apr-11 15,785 15, May-06 13,591 13, May-11 15,820 15, Jun-06 13,622 13, Jun-11 15,855 15, Jul-06 13,657 13, Jul-11 15,888 15, Aug-06 13,706 13, Aug-11 15,912 15, Sep-06 13,744 13, Sep-11 15,942 15, Oct-06 13,786 13, Oct-11 15,962 15, Nov-06 13,821 13, Nov-11 15,985 15, Dec-06 13,864 13, Dec-11 16,012 15, Jan-07 13,904 13, Jan-12 16,038 15, Feb-07 13,949 13, Feb-12 16,063 15, Mar-07 13,996 13, Mar-12 16,086 15, Apr-07 14,033 13, Apr-12 16,116 15, May-07 14,061 13, May-12 16,130 15, Jun-07 14,093 13, Jun-12 16,151 15, Jul-07 14,140 13, Jul-12 16,183 15, Aug-07 14,179 13, Aug-12 16,213 15, Sep-07 14,227 13, Sep-12 16,232 15, Oct-07 14,263 13, Oct-12 16,262 15, Nov-07 14,307 14, Nov-12 16,288 15, Dec-07 14,353 14, Dec-12 16,311 15, Jan-08 14,404 14, Jan-13 16,346 15, Feb-08 14,452 14, Feb-13 16,373 Mar-08 14,502 14, Mar-13 16,393 Apr-08 14,531 14, Apr-13 16,409 May-08 14,560 14, May-13 16,428 Jun-08 14,600 14, Jun-13 16,458 Jul-13 16,481 25