The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS)
|
|
|
- Imogen McLaughlin
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System (AAQFS) P.C. Manins 1, M.E.Cope 1,2, G.D Hess 3, K.J. Tory 3, Sunhee Lee 1, K.Puri 3, M.Young 4 1 CSIRO Atmospheric Research, 2 CSIRO Energy Technology, 3 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre 4 Environment Protection Authority of NSW
2 GENERAL PROJECT OBJECTIVES Develop and implement a numerical air quality forecasting system in Melbourne and Sydney Australia Demonstrate the System in Sydney during the Olympics and Para-Olympics (2) AUSTRALIA MELBOURNE SYDNEY A project supported by Environment Australia through the Natural Heritage Trust.
3 Tomorrow will be fine and sunny -with moderate to heavy air pollution AIR AIR QUALITY FORECAST- MELBOURNE 584 INDEX INDEX NORTH EAST NORTH EAST NORTHING(km) PTH GLS GVD MTC PTC FTS PSY PORT PHILLIP BAY ALP PLP BXH BRI DND HEAVY MODERATE HOUR HOUR EASTING (km) LIGHT
4 Is a prognostic air pollution forecasting system worth the considerable effort? Why not a use a statistical forecasting system? More Are spatial and temporal information needed from the forecast? (e.g. hour-by by-hour, suburb-by by-suburb) Support air quality management & policy development? (e.g. VOC controls) Are monitoring data limited? (no extensive network)?
5 Levels of Complexity More 1. Embedded in a operational National Weather Forecasting System AAQFS 2. Extension of Numerical Weather Forecasting Capability e.g.,, Beijing, China 3. NMHS seeking to develop both a national numerical weather and pollution forecast Malaysia? 4. NMHS focussed on forecasting air pollution for a limited region others?
6 AAQFS DESIGN FEATURES Generate air quality forecasts twice per day for a period of hours: (3 pm and 9 am). Consider a range of air pollutants: NOx,, ROC, SO 2, O 3, aerosol, air toxics. Resolve air quality at regional and suburb level (5 km, 1 km). Generate a business as usual forecast and a greener emissions forecast.
7 The Need for High Resolution More Leads to improved weather forecasts Changes in space and time important Necessary to resolve regional flows For air pollution, wind trajectory vital Boundary layer must be resolved For air pollution levels, mixing height vital
8 SYSTEM- FEATURES MET ANALYSIS NWP GASP/LAPS Australian operational weather forecast models EMISSIONS DATABASE INVENTORY EMS-95 derivative AQ + MET OBS. CTM Custom-integrate into NWP EVALUATION AIR QUALITY FORECAST DATA PACKAGE
9 STUDY REGIONS Victoria-Melbourne AUSTRALIA VICTORIA SWANHILL 13 13; x ~5 km WODONGA WANGARATTA LATITUDE (deg. N) MELBOURNE 13 96; x ~1 km GEELONG GSTH GRVD BASS STRAIT SYDNEY Latitude (deg. N) MELBOURNE MTCL -39. ALPH RMIT PAIS BXHL PTCK PORT PHILLIP BAY -4. BRTN HORSHAM WARRNAMBOOL KING IS BENDIGO CASTLEMAINE GEELONG MELBOURNE BASS STRAIT WARRAGUL TASMANIA Longitude (deg. E) LONGITUDE (deg. E)
10 STUDY REGIONS New South Wales-Sydney AUSTRALIA -32. NSW 98 98; x ~5 km MUSWELLBROOK MELBOURNE SYDNEY Latitude (deg. N) SYDNEY 98 56; x ~1 km RICH PENRITH VYNE ORANGE NEWCASTLE LITHGOW SYDNEY WOLLONGONG LATITUDE (deg. N) BLAC LIND ST.M WSTM BRIN CAMD CAMP SYDNEY ROZE LIDC LIVE EARL MASCOT RAND CANBERRA TASMAN SEA LONGITUDE (deg. E) WOOL Longitude (deg. E) PACIFIC OCEAN
11 Data Flows for AAQFS SUPERCOMPUTERS GASP LAPS375 LAPS125 LAPS5 VIC EPA VIC EPA EPA NSW NSW CTM NSW CTM VIC LAPS5 NSW ARCHIVE WEB SITE FTP SITE POST- PROCESSING, ARCHIVING, GRAPHICS, VERIFICATION
12 EPA-Victoria AAQFS Web Page
13 15 March 21 Daily Validation NO y NO 2 VOC O 3
14 PERFORMANCE REVIEW Consider forecasts for some of 2/21 and all of 21/22 photochemical smog seasons 5 km forecasting domains Assess the limit of predictability for forecasts of peak daily 1-hour ozone concentration
15 Verification- Air Quality modelling Example: Sydney 7-day 7 ozone episode January 21 OZONE- HOUR 16, 21/1/21 23/1/21 25/1/21 27/1/ MUSWELLBROOK (ppb) NORTHING ORANGE CANBERRA NEWCASTLE LITHGOW SYDNEY WOLLONGONG PACIFIC OCEAN EASTING
16 CONCENTRATION (ppb) CONCENTRATION (ppb) VINEYARD- O OBS 1 CTM Example: Sydney 7-day 7 ozone episode January LIDCOMBE- O OBS CTM LIVERPOOL- 72 O TIME (hours) OBS 1 CTM WOOLOOWARE- 72 O TIME (hours) OBS 1 CTM CONCENTRATION (ppb) CONCENTRATION (ppb) NORTHING (km) TIME (hours) RICHMOND VINEYARD BLACKTOWN LINDFIELD WESTMEAD ROZELLE LIDCOMBE LIVERPOOL RANDWICK WOOLOOWARE CAMPBELLTOWN APPIN TIME (hours) BARGO EASTING (km)
17 PERFORMANCE REVIEW -32. MUSWELLBROOK REGIONAL FORECASTING -33. NEWCASTLE 2 PEAK 1-HOUR OZONE (Regional) Latitude (deg. N) -34. ORANGE LITHGOW SYDNEY WOLLONGONG FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) CANBERRA PACIFIC OCEAN OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) Longitude (deg. E)
18 FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) SYDNEY- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max SUB-REGIONAL FORECASTING SYDNEY NORTH WEST OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) SYDNEY SOUTH WEST OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) LATITUDE (deg. N) FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) NW SW CAMD RICH PENRITH SYDNEY EAST OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) ST.M BRIN CAMP VYNE BLAC WSTM SYDNEY LIND ROZE LIDC LIVE EARL MASCOT RAND WOOL EAST TASMAN SEA LONGITUDE (deg. E)
19 SYDNEY- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max 2 PEAK 1-HOUR OZONE (Suburb) SUBURB-LEVEL FORECASTING FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) LATITUDE (deg. N) NW SW CAMD RICH PENRITH ST.M BRIN CAMP VYNE BLAC WSTM SYDNEY LIND ROZE LIDC LIVE EARL MASCOT RAND WOOL EAST TASMAN SEA LONGITUDE (deg. E) OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)
20 SYDNEY- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max 2 PEAK 1-HOUR OZONE (Monitoring station) STATION-LEVEL FORECASTING FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) LATITUDE (deg. N) NW SW CAMD RICH PENRITH ST.M BRIN CAMP VYNE BLAC WSTM SYDNEY LIND ROZE LIDC LIVE EARL MASCOT RAND WOOL EAST TASMAN SEA LONGITUDE (deg. E) OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)
21 MELBOURNE- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max REGIONAL FORECASTING LATITUDE (deg. N) GEELONG GSTH GRVD BASS STRAIT MTCL MELBOURNE PTCK PORT PHILLIP BAY ALPH RMIT PAIS BXHL BRTN LONGITUDE (deg. E) FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) REGIONAL OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)
22 1 MELBOURNE- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max WEST FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) GEELONG LATITUDE (deg. N) SUB-REGIONAL FORECASTING GEELONG GSTH GRVD GEELONG BASS STRAIT WEST MTCL MELBOURNE PTCK PORT PHILLIP BAY ALPH RMIT PAIS BXHL BRTN EAST EAST LONGITUDE (deg. E) FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb)
23 MELBOURNE- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max SUBURB-LEVEL FORECASTING PEAK 1-HOUR OZONE (Suburb) LATITUDE (deg. N) GEELONG GSTH GRVD MTCL MELBOURNE PTCK PAIS PORT PHILLIP BAY ALPH RMIT BRTN BXHL FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) BASS STRAIT OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) LONGITUDE (deg. E)
24 MELBOURNE- Daily 1-hour 1 O 3 max STATION-LEVEL FORECASTING PEAK 1-HOUR OZONE (Monitoring station) LATITUDE (deg. N) GEELONG GSTH GRVD MTCL MELBOURNE PTCK PAIS PORT PHILLIP BAY ALPH RMIT BRTN BXHL FORECAST CONCENTRATION (ppb) O 3 >5 ppb BASS STRAIT OBSERVED CONCENTRATION (ppb) LONGITUDE (deg. E)
25 PERFORMANCE INDICES (O > 3 5 ppb) SYDNEY- NORMALISED BIAS SYDNEY- NORMALISED GROSS ERROR 15 3 Percentage -15 Percentage Regional Suburb Station Regional Subregional Subregional Suburb Station 15 MELBOURNE- NORMALISED BIAS MELBOURNE- NORMALISED GROSS ERROR 3 Percentage -15 Percentage Regional Suburb Station Regional Subregional Subregional Suburb Station
26 AAQFS- PERFORMANCE M O Contingency Table Observed Model Yes No Total Yes d f f+d No m b m+b Total d+m f+b Detected = d/(d+m) correct forecasts False alarm = f/(f+d) missed events
27 SYDNEY MELBOURNE 1 OZONE DETECTION RATE- SYDNEY 1 OZONE DETECTION RATE- MELBOURNE 8 8 Rate (%) Region Sub-region Suburb Rate (%) Region Sub-region Suburb Rate (%) Exceedance concentration (ppb) OZONE FALSE ALARM RATE- SYDNEY Region Sub-region Suburb Exceedance concentration (ppb) Rate (%) Exceedance concentration (ppb) OZONE FALSE ALARM RATE- MELBOURNE Region Sub-region Suburb Exceedance concentration (ppb)
28 AAQFS vs. PERSISTENCE (Sub-regional) AAQFS / PERSISTENCE DETECTION RATE Sydney Melbourne AAQFS / PERSISTENCE FALSE ALARM RATE Sydney Melbourne Exceedance concentration (ppb) Exceedance concentration (ppb)
29 TWO-SCENARIO FORECAST DOSAGE TIME
30 Why is AAQFS special? Provides twice-daily forecasts of AQI and 18 pollutants for EPAs Shows the daily development of pollution (highly instructive/other applications) Because prognostic, unusual events handled Can explore results with off-line tools Alternative scenarios, special locations
31 Why is AAQFS unique? Resolution: 5 km Met, 1 km AQ Integral verification of yesterday s forecast Proven operational within a NMHS Responsive to daily changes in EPA-supplied emissions data Minimal demand on resources by EPAs Green scenarios can be run on special days
32 Experience with Generating Emissions Inventories More Population-based emissions can produce quite acceptable results (no industry) Industry must be treated explicitly Simple biogenics scheme works well Pollution inflows may be much more important in other national settings Seasonal, diurnal and weather-related related emissions changes should be done in-line for simplicity and speed.
33 Prognostic Model + Emissions Inventory Applications More Stand-alone alone applications useful (TAPM) Air quality management planning/scenarios Monitoring network designing Industrial complex emissions management Surveillance of urban pollution emissions Urban design applications Assessments of transport options/technologies Airshed emissions taxes/trading Wind-Power prospecting!
34 AAQFS Experiences More Emissions Inventories our biggest problem Wind-blown dust, other particle sources, difficult effort by Met. Service of Canada commendable Timeliness and quality of air pollution monitoring data is vital for warm starts (assimilation) GRS chemistry adequacy Routine verification of forecasts Backgrounds/domain-size size issue Cooperation between Agencies is important Uptake by others is slow patience!
THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM - Lessons Learned and Looking Forward
THE AUSTRALIAN AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM - Lessons Learned and Looking Forward www.cawcr.gov.au Martin Cope, Sunhee Lee, Alan Wain and Dale Hess Air Quality- Australian Coastal Airsheds Ozone Particles
The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project Description and Early Outcomes
VOLUME 43 JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY MAY 2004 The Australian Air Quality Forecasting System. Part I: Project Description and Early Outcomes M. E. COPE,*, G. D. HESS, # S. LEE,* K. TORY, # M. AZZI,
AREP GAW. Overview of GURME. (The WMO GAW Urban Research Meteorology and Environment project) WMO Secretariat
Overview of GURME (The WMO Urban Research Meteorology and Environment project) Liisa Jalkanen Liisa Jalkanen WMO Secretariat World Meteorological Organization Independent technical UN agency 187 Members
DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A NUMERICAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF A NUMERICAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM Martin E. Cope 1, Peter Manins 1, Dale Hess 2, Graham Mills 2, Kamal Puri 2, Piya Dewundege 3, Kevin Tilly 3 and Michael Johnson
AREP GAW. AQ Forecasting
AQ Forecasting What Are We Forecasting Averaging Time (3 of 3) PM10 Daily Maximum Values, 2001 Santiago, Chile (MACAM stations) 300 Level 2 Pre-Emergency Level 1 Alert 200 Air Quality Standard 150 100
MPCA Forecasting Summary 2010
MPCA Forecasting Summary 2010 Jessica Johnson, Patrick Zahn, Natalie Shell Sonoma Technology, Inc. Petaluma, CA Presented to Minnesota Pollution Control Agency St. Paul, MN June 3, 2010 aq-ppt2-01 907021-3880
A new quantitative smoke forecasting system for Victoria
A new quantitative smoke forecasting system for Victoria Non-peer reviewed research proceedings from the Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC & AFAC conference Sydney, 4 6 September 2017 Monica Long 1, Alan
Central Ohio Air Quality End of Season Report. 111 Liberty Street, Suite 100 Columbus, OH Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission
217 218 Central Ohio Air Quality End of Season Report 111 Liberty Street, Suite 1 9189-2834 1 Highest AQI Days 122 Nov. 217 Oct. 218 July 13 Columbus- Maple Canyon Dr. 11 July 14 London 11 May 25 New Albany
Air Quality Modelling for Health Impacts Studies
Air Quality Modelling for Health Impacts Studies Paul Agnew RSS Conference September 2014 Met Office Air Quality and Composition team Paul Agnew Lucy Davis Carlos Ordonez Nick Savage Marie Tilbee April
Know and Respond AQ Alert Service. Paul Willis SCOTTISH AIR QUALITY DATABASE AND WEBSITE ANNUAL SEMINAR Stirling 30 th March 2011
Know and Respond AQ Alert Service Paul Willis SCOTTISH AIR QUALITY DATABASE AND WEBSITE ANNUAL SEMINAR Stirling 30 th March 2011 Outline: Know and Respond AQ Alert Service Introduction. The Website. How
NOAA-EPA s s U.S. National Air Quality Forecast Capability
NOAA-EPA s s U.S. National Air Quality Forecast Capability May 10, 2006 Paula M. Davidson 1, Nelson Seaman 1, Jeff McQueen 1, Rohit Mathur 1,2, Chet Wayland 2 1 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Integrating Hydrologic and Storm Surge Models for Improved Flood Warning
Integ Hydrologic and Storm Surge Models for Improved Flood Warning Leahy, C.P, Entel, M, Sooriyakumaran, S, and Warren, G Flood Warning Program Office, Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, Victoria National
1 INTRODUCTION 2 DESCRIPTION OF THE MODELS. In 1989, two models were able to make smog forecasts; the MPA-model and
The national smog warning system in The Netherlands; a combination of measuring and modelling H. Noordijk Laboratory of Air Research, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (WFM;,
Meteorological and Dispersion Modelling Using TAPM for Wagerup
Meteorological and Dispersion Modelling Using TAPM for Wagerup Phase 1: Meteorology Appendix A: Additional modelling details Prepared for: Alcoa World Alumina Australia, P. O. Box 252, Applecross, Western
NOAA s Air Quality Forecasting Activities. Steve Fine NOAA Air Quality Program
NOAA s Air Quality Forecasting Activities Steve Fine NOAA Air Quality Program Introduction Planned Capabilities Initial: 1-day 1 forecast guidance for ozone Develop and validate in Northeastern US September,
CAUL Project 1: Milestone 16: Annual Report on Air Quality Modelling
CAUL Project 1: Milestone 16: Annual Report on Air Quality Modelling Introduction There have been substantial efforts in the past five years to better characterise the sources of particulate pollution
Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summaries April to June 2010 and July to September 2010
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal 60 (2010) 301-305 Quarterly numerical weather prediction model performance summaries April to June 2010 and July to September 2010 Xiaoxi Wu and Chris
End of Ozone Season Report
End of Ozone Season Report Central Ohio: April 1 through October 31, 2016 The Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission (MORPC) is part of a network of agencies across the country that issues daily air quality
Application and verification of ECMWF products: 2010
Application and verification of ECMWF products: 2010 Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) F. Gofa, D. Tzeferi and T. Charantonis 1. Summary of major highlights In order to determine the quality
Regional services and best use for boundary conditions
Regional services and best use for boundary conditions MACC-III User Workshop Roma, 11 May 2015 Virginie Marécal (Météo-France) Laurence Rouïl (INERIS) and the MACC regional consortium Regional services
Global Change and Air Pollution (EPA-STAR GCAP) Daniel J. Jacob
Global Change and Air Pollution (EPA-STAR GCAP) and some more recent work on climate-aq interactions Daniel J. Jacob (djacob@fas.harvard.edu) with Eric M. Leibensperger, Shiliang Wu, Amos Tai, and Loretta
Application and verification of ECMWF products 2013
Application and verification of EMWF products 2013 Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS) Flora Gofa and Theodora Tzeferi 1. Summary of major highlights In order to determine the quality of the
High resolution rainfall projections for the Greater Sydney Region
20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Adelaide, Australia, 1 6 December 2013 www.mssanz.org.au/modsim2013 High resolution rainfall projections for the Greater Sydney Region F. Ji a,
Natural Event Documentation
ADDENDUM Natural Event Documentation Corcoran, Oildale and Bakersfield, California September 22, 2006 San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District May 23, 2007 Natural Event Documentation
NSW Ocean Water Levels
NSW Ocean Water Levels B Modra 1, S Hesse 1 1 Manly Hydraulics Laboratory, NSW Public Works, Sydney, NSW Manly Hydraulics Laboratory (MHL) has collected ocean water level and tide data on behalf of the
PRELIMINARY EXPERIENCES WITH THE MULTI-MODEL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR NEW YORK STATE
PRELIMINARY EXPERIENCES WITH THE MULTI-MODEL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR NEW YORK STATE Prakash Doraiswamy 1,,*, Christian Hogrefe 1,2, Winston Hao 2, Brian Colle 3, Mark Beauharnois 1, Ken Demerjian
Outline. CEEM-ISCR Workshop on Electricity Industry Restructuring April Forecasting Wind Energy: Challenges and Solutions 1
Joint Australia New Zealand Workshop on Electricity Industry Restructuring, 19 th -20 th April, Sydney CEEM 2007 Outline 2 1 Introduction As wind power emerges as a significant component of energy markets
Overview of U.S. Forecasting/Outreach Methods
Overview of U.S. Forecasting/Outreach Methods John E. White, US EPA white.johne@epa.gov NCAR/ASP 2016 Summer Colloquium on Air Quality Outline Air Quality Forecasting in the U.S. How it is done Challenges
Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for December 2015 May 2016 BUSAN, 25 November 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for December 2015 to May 2016 (DJFMAM) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC),
Climate Change Impacts on the Marine Environment
Climate Change Impacts on the Marine Environment Ken Ridgway CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Wealth from Oceans National Research Flagship www.csiro.au Acknowledgements Jeff Dunn, John Church, Katy
Responsibilities of Harvard Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group
Responsibilities of Harvard Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Group Loretta Mickley, Lu Shen, Daniel Jacob, and Rachel Silvern 2.1 Objective 1: Compile comprehensive air pollution, weather, emissions, and
AREP GAW. Section 14 Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations
Section 14 Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations Daily Forecast Operations Nine steps to produce an accurate air quality forecast a suggested method 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Review yesterday s forecast
Climate Outlook for March August 2017
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for March August 2017 BUSAN, 24 February 2017 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for March to August 2017 (MAMJJA) at the APEC Climate Center (APCC), located
Grid point spacing (km) T2047 H K T7999 NH M
(Very) High Res NWP ECMWF High-resolution modelling developments (inputs: Nils Wedi, Mats Hamrud, George Mozdzynski, Jean Bidlot, Geir Austad, Sinisa Curic ) Current and planned resolutions: IFS model
Preliminary Experiences with the Multi Model Air Quality Forecasting System for New York State
Preliminary Experiences with the Multi Model Air Quality Forecasting System for New York State Prakash Doraiswamy 1, Christian Hogrefe 1,2, Winston Hao 2, Brian Colle 3, Mark Beauharnois 1, Ken Demerjian
Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia
Hydrological forecasting and decision making in Australia Justin Robinson, Jeff Perkins and Bruce Quig Bureau of Meteorology, Australia The Bureau's Hydrological Forecasting Services Seasonal Forecasts
142 HAIL CLIMATOLOGY OF AUSTRALIA BASED ON LIGHTNING AND REANALYSIS
142 HAIL CLIMATOLOGY OF AUSTRALIA BASED ON LIGHTNING AND REANALYSIS Christopher N. Bednarczyk* Peter J. Sousounis AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA 1. INTRODUCTION * The highly uneven distribution
EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE
28 April 2017 World Meteorological Organization EL NIÑO/LA NIÑA UPDATE Current Situation and Outlook Neutral El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions currently exist in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
Nowcasting for the London Olympics 2012 Brian Golding, Susan Ballard, Nigel Roberts & Ken Mylne Met Office, UK. Crown copyright Met Office
Nowcasting for the London Olympics 2012 Brian Golding, Susan Ballard, Nigel Roberts & Ken Mylne Met Office, UK Outline Context MOGREPS-UK AQUM Weymouth Bay models Summary Forecasting System Generic Products
Appendix B. Contents. Elliston instrument deployment data report. Olympic Dam Expansion Supplementary Environmental Impact Statement 2010
Project Alternatives Appendix B Contents B1 Elliston instrument deployment data report 1 Olympic Dam Expansion Supplementary Environmental Impact Statement 2010 Appendix B1 Elliston instrument deployment
Recent Performance of the NOAA Air Quality Forecasting Capability and the Impact of Driving Meteorology
Recent Performance of the NOAA Air Quality Forecasting Capability and the Impact of Driving Meteorology http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/aq Jeff McQueen, Jianping Huang, Ho-Chun Huang, Perry Shafran NCEP/EMC
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting
The benefits and developments in ensemble wind forecasting Erik Andersson Slide 1 ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Slide 1 ECMWF s global forecasting system High resolution forecast
Environmental quality modeling
Environmental quality modeling Air quality management modeling AIRQUIS Water quality management modeling WATERQUIS N:\adm\arkiv\overhead\2006\CEE\Yale-9.ppt 1 An Integrated Air Quality Managament System
Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for Pacific Islands for August 2015 January 2016 BUSAN, 24 July 2015 Synthesis of the latest model forecasts for August 2015 January 2016 (ASONDJ) at the APEC Climate
peak half-hourly New South Wales
Forecasting long-term peak half-hourly electricity demand for New South Wales Dr Shu Fan B.S., M.S., Ph.D. Professor Rob J Hyndman B.Sc. (Hons), Ph.D., A.Stat. Business & Economic Forecasting Unit Report
Severe Freezing Rain in Slovenia
Severe Freezing Rain in Slovenia Janez Markosek, Environmental Agency, Slovenia Introduction At the end of January and at the beginning of February 2014, severe and long-lasting freezing rain affected
Operational implementation and performance evaluation of a PM10 and PM2.5 model for Santiago de Chile
Operational implementation and performance evaluation of a PM10 and PM2.5 model for Santiago de Chile Rodrigo Delgado 1*, Pablo Hernandez 2, Marcelo Mena- Carrasco 3 1 Dirección Meteorológica de Chile,
Contributors: Arlene Fiore 1, Lee Murray 1, Luke Valin 1, Olivia Clifton 1, Jean Guo 1 Author: Melissa Seto 1 Analysis of Wisconsin 2007 High-Ozone event Section 1A: Can satellite NO 2 columns inform us
Comprehensive Analysis of Annual 2005/2008 Simulation of WRF/CMAQ over Southeast of England
Comprehensive Analysis of Annual 2005/2008 Simulation of WRF/CMAQ over Southeast of England The 13 th International Conference on Harmonization within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes
1.21 SENSITIVITY OF LONG-TERM CTM SIMULATIONS TO METEOROLOGICAL INPUT
1.21 SENSITIVITY OF LONG-TERM CTM SIMULATIONS TO METEOROLOGICAL INPUT Enrico Minguzzi 1 Marco Bedogni 2, Claudio Carnevale 3, and Guido Pirovano 4 1 Hydrometeorological Service of Emilia Romagna (SIM),
Climate Risk Profile for Samoa
Climate Risk Profile for Samoa Report Prepared by Wairarapa J. Young Samoa Meteorology Division March, 27 Summary The likelihood (i.e. probability) components of climate-related risks in Samoa are evaluated
Global and Regional Modeling
Global and Regional Modeling Pius Lee NOAA Air Resources Lab (ARL) with contributions from: NOAA ARL: Daniel Tong, Li Pan, Youhua Tang, Barry Baker NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction: Jeff
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative
The South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative Phase 2 of the South Eastern Australian Climate Initiative (SEACI) is a three-year (2009 2012), $9 million research program investigating the causes and
Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in regional climate change projections: The demanding test case of Tasmania
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science Assessing rainfall trends and remote drivers in regional climate change projections: The demanding test case of Tasmania To cite this article: M R
AFAC 2006 page 536. Climate-Change Impacts on fire-weather in SE Australia Kevin Hennessy, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO
AFAC 2006 page 536 Climate-Change Impacts on fire-weather in SE Australia Kevin Hennessy, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO AFAC 2006 page 537 Climate change impacts on fire-weather risk in south-east
Background and History
p1 Background and History What is the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative? The Indian Ocean Climate Initiative (IOCI) is a strategic program of research and information transfer to support government decision-making.
Creating Meteorology for CMAQ
Creating Meteorology for CMAQ Tanya L. Otte* Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Research Triangle Park, NC * On assignment to the National Exposure Research Laboratory,
RSMC WASHINGTON USER'S INTERPRETATION GUIDELINES ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MODEL OUTPUTS
RSMC WASHINGTON USER'S INTERPRETATION GUIDELINES ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT MODEL OUTPUTS -Version 2.0- (January 2007) 1. Introduction In the context of current agreements between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Regional Production, Quarterly report on the daily analyses and forecasts activities, and verification of the CHIMERE performances
ECMWF COPERNICUS REPORT Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Regional Production, Quarterly report on the daily analyses and forecasts activities, and verification of the CHIMERE performances September
PM 2.5 Forecasting: Preliminary Results
PM 2.5 Forecasting: Preliminary Results William F. Ryan The Pennsylvania State University Department of Meteorology Joint MARAMA/NESCAUM Air Monitoring Meeting West Atlantic City, NJ 9/6 120 100 80 60
Forecasting Panel Discussion State/Local/EPA Meeting: Year-Round/Mult-Pollutant Air Quality Index (AQI) April 24-25, 2003 USEPA Offices RTP, NC
Forecasting Panel Discussion State/Local/EPA Meeting: Year-Round/Mult-Pollutant Air Quality Index (AQI) April 24-25, 2003 USEPA Offices RTP, NC Cary Gentry, Forsyth County EAD Dan Salkovitz (Virginia DEQ)
20 Years of Forecasting Air Quality in Georgia. Michael E. Chang
20 Years of Forecasting Air Quality in Georgia Michael E. Chang chang@gatech.edu www.elementascience.org Atmospheric Science Ecology Sustainable Engineering Earth & Environmental Science Ocean Science
RSMC Washington report of activities for 2017
RSMC Washington report of activities for 2017 Executive Summary RSMC Washington did not receive any requests for support for real events in 2017. Other RSMC-related activities for 2017 consisted of Regions
Numerical prediction of severe convection: comparison with operational forecasts
Meteorol. Appl. 10, 11 19 (2003) DOI:10.1017/S1350482703005024 Numerical prediction of severe convection: comparison with operational forecasts Milton S. Speer 1, Lance M. Leslie 2 & L. Qi 2 1 Bureau of
New COST Action: Towards a European Network on Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information Systems
New COST Action: Towards a European Network on Chemical Weather Forecasting and Information Systems Proposer: Mikhail Sofiev Finnish Meteorological Institute Historical background EUMETNET Workshop on
Influence of 3D Model Grid Resolution on Tropospheric Ozone Levels
Influence of 3D Model Grid Resolution on Tropospheric Ozone Levels Pedro Jiménez nez, Oriol Jorba and José M. Baldasano Laboratory of Environmental Modeling Technical University of Catalonia-UPC (Barcelona,
On the use of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts in an operational heavy rainfall warning service
On the use of radar rainfall estimates and nowcasts in an operational heavy rainfall warning service Alan Seed, Ross Bunn, Aurora Bell Bureau of Meteorology Australia The Centre for Australian Weather
Air Quality Forecasting Activities in the United States
Air Quality Forecasting Activities in the United States NARSTO Executive Assembly May 9-10, 2006 Ottawa, Canada Richard A. Chet Wayland U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Research Triangle Park, North
REGIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING OVER GREECE WITHIN PROMOTE
REGIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECASTING OVER GREECE WITHIN PROMOTE Poupkou A. (1), D. Melas (1), I. Kioutsioukis (2), I. Lisaridis (1), P. Symeonidis (1), D. Balis (1), S. Karathanasis (3) and S. Kazadzis (1)
Regional Production, Quarterly report on the daily analyses and forecasts activities, and verification of the EURAD-IM performances
ECMWF COPERNICUS REPORT Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Regional Production, Quarterly report on the daily analyses and forecasts activities, and verification of the EURAD-IM performances March
New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 223, January 2018 Current climate December 2017 December 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas. This pressure
Climates of NYS. Definitions. Climate Regions of NYS. Storm Tracks. Climate Controls 10/13/2011. Characteristics of NYS s Climates
Definitions Climates of NYS Prof. Anthony Grande 2011 Weather and Climate Weather the state of the atmosphere at one point in time. The elements of weather are temperature, air pressure, wind and moisture.
Egyptian Meteorological Authority Cairo Numerical Weather prediction centre
JOINT WMO TECHNICAL PROGRESS REPORT ON THE GLOBAL DATA PROCESSING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION RESEARCH ACTIVITIES FOR 2016 Egyptian Meteorological Authority Cairo Numerical
Project Summary. Sanford Sillman. is a way to evaluate the sensitivity to its two main precursors, nitrogen oxides (NO x
United States National Exposure Environmental Protection Research Laboratory Agency Research Triangle Park, NC 27711 Research and Development EPA/600/SR98/022 May 1998 Project Summary Evaluating the Relation
CAPACITY BUILDING FOR NON-NUCLEAR ATMOSPHERIC TRANSPORT EMERGENCY RESPONSE ACTIVITIES. (Submitted by RSMC-Beijing) Summary and purpose of document
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION COMMISSION FOR BASIC SYSTEMS OPAG on DPFS Task Team on Development of Operational Procedures for non-nuclear ERA CBS-DPFS/TT-DOP-nNERA/Doc.8 (4.X.2012) Agenda item : 8
Evaluation of DELTA forecast functionality
Evaluation of DELTA forecast functionality Jenny Stocker, David Carruthers & Kate Johnson 7th Plenary Meeting of FAIRMODE April 2014 Kjeller Norway Contents airtext forecasting system for London Model
Some Aspects of the 2005 Ozone Season
Some Aspects of the 2005 Ozone Season William F. Ryan Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University 2005 MARAMA Monitoring Committee Meeting Ocean City, Maryland November 15-17, 2005 Three
Denver International Airport MDSS Demonstration Verification Report for the Season
Denver International Airport MDSS Demonstration Verification Report for the 2015-2016 Season Prepared by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Research Applications Division (RAL) Seth Linden
System Validation. SEEFFG Operations Workshop. Theresa M. Modrick, PhD Hydrologic Engineer Hydrologic Research Center
SEEFFG Operations Workshop System Validation Theresa M. Modrick, PhD Hydrologic Engineer Hydrologic Research Center TModrick@hrcwater.org 09 May 2016 1 Fundamental Concepts for Flash Flood Guidance FFG
1.2 UTILIZING MODIS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS IN NEAR-REAL-TIME TO IMPROVE AIRNow NEXT DAY FORECAST OF FINE PARTICULATE MATTER, PM2.5
1.2 UTILIZING MODIS SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS IN NEAR-REAL-TIME TO IMPROVE AIRNow NEXT DAY FORECAST OF FINE PARTICULATE MATTER, PM2.5 James Szykman*, John White US EPA, Office of Air Quality Planning and
Romanian Contribution in Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Project
3 Working Group on Physical Aspects 29 Romanian Contribution in Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts Project Rodica Dumitrache, Victor Pescaru, Liliana Velea, Cosmin Barbu National Meteorological Administration,
Current and future climate of the Cook Islands. Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program
Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning Program Penrhyn Pukapuka Nassau Suwarrow Rakahanga Manihiki N o r t h e r n C o o k I s l a nds S o u t h e Palmerston r n C o o k I s l
The impacts of mineral dust aerosols on numerical weather predictions
S3D Presentation S3D-1 The impacts of mineral dust aerosols on numerical weather predictions Gill-Ran Jeong (Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems) Aerosols play important roles in Earth s
WIND INTEGRATION IN ELECTRICITY GRIDS WORK PACKAGE 3: SIMULATION USING HISTORICAL WIND DATA
WIND INTEGRATION IN ELECTRICITY GRIDS WORK PACKAGE 3: SIMULATION USING PREPARED BY: Strategy and Economics DATE: 18 January 2012 FINAL Australian Energy Market Operator Ltd ABN 94 072 010 327 www.aemo.com.au
Global NWP Index documentation
Global NWP Index documentation The global index is calculated in two ways, against observations, and against model analyses. Observations are sparse in some parts of the world, and using full gridded analyses
AIRQUEST Annual Report and State of the Model
AIRQUEST Annual Report and State of the Model Brian Lamb 1, Serena Chung 1, Farren Herron-Thorpe 2 and Joseph Vaughan 1 1 Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, Washington State University, Pullman, W, USA
The Challenge of. Guy Brasseur
The Challenge of Monitoring and Predicting Chemical Weather Guy Brasseur Introduction: What is Chemical Weather? What is Chemical Weather? Local, regional, and global distributions of important trace gases
European Developments in Mesoscale Modelling for Air Pollution Applications Activities of the COST 728 Action
European Developments in Mesoscale Modelling for Air Pollution Applications Activities of the COST 728 Action R S Sokhi*, A Baklanov, H Schlünzen, M Sofiev, M Athanassiadou, Peter Builtjes and COST 728
Regional Production Quarterly report on the daily analyses and forecasts activities, and verification of the ENSEMBLE performances
Regional Production Quarterly report on the daily analyses and forecasts activities, and verification of the ENSEMBLE performances December 2015 January 2016 February 2016 Issued by: METEO-FRANCE Date:
Supplementary appendix
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Lowe R, Stewart-Ibarra AM, Petrova D, et al.
Current verification practices with a particular focus on dust
Current verification practices with a particular focus on dust Marion Mittermaier and Ric Crocker Outline 1. Guide to developing verification studies 2. Observations at the root of it all 3. Grid-to-point,
Numerical simulation of relationship between climatic factors and ground ozone concentration over Kanto area using the MM5/CMAQ Model
251 Numerical simulation of relationship between climatic factors and ground ozone concentration over Kanto area using the MM5/CMAQ Model Mai Van KHIEM, Ryozo OOKA, Hong HUANG and Hiroshi HAYAMI In recent
Assessment of Ozone Variability in East Asia during Recent Years
EANET Research Fellowship Program 2005 Assessment of Ozone Variability in East Asia during Recent Years Eyi Wang 1) *, Tatsuya Sakurai 2) and Hiromasa Ueda 2) 1) Division of Air Polluting Monitoring, China
CAT-i Bulletin Catastrophe Information
CAT-i Bulletin Catastrophe Information Report Date: December 28, 2018 Sydney Hailstorms, December 20, 2018 Hail Swath for the Sydney Hail Event. Source: Dr Joshua Soderholm, Monash University, using radar
The Forecasting Challenge. The Forecasting Challenge CEEM,
Using NWP forecasts at multiple grid points to assist power system operators to predict large rapid changes in wind power Nicholas Cutler. n.cutler@unsw.edu.au 9 th April, 2008 CEEM, 2008 The Forecasting
New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017
New Zealand Climate Update No 222, November 2017 Current climate November 2017 November 2017 was characterised by higher than normal sea level pressure over New Zealand and the surrounding seas, particularly
Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018
The APEC CLIMATE CENTER Climate Outlook for October 2017 March 2018 BUSAN, 25 September 2017 The synthesis of the latest model forecasts for October 2017 to March 2018 (ONDJFM) from the APEC Climate Center
Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia)
Plan for operational nowcasting system implementation in Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) Pulkovo airport (St. Petersburg, Russia) is one of the biggest airports in the Russian Federation (150
The climate change penalty on US air quality: New perspectives from statistical models
The climate change penalty on US air quality: New perspectives from statistical models Charles River Path, Boston, July 2010 Salt Lake City, January 2013 Loretta J. Mickley, Lu Shen, Xu Yue Harvard University
FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES. Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010
SHORT-TERM TERM WIND POWER FORECASTING: A REVIEW OF STATUS AND CHALLENGES Eric Grimit and Kristin Larson 3TIER, Inc. Pacific Northwest Weather Workshop March 5-6, 2010 Integrating Renewable Energy» Variable