Unemployed 27 Weeks or Longer as a % of the Unemployed CPI = +1.6%
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1 S&P 00 Vlut Th S&P 00 rltvly v bd rtg rg. m Outlk Dmbr 2016 Th yl h rdud muh lwr m grwth. Th vtmt drbd hr r: NOT FDIC INSUD NOT BANK GUAANTD MAY LOS VALU NOT A DPOSIT NOT INSUD BY ANY FDAL O STAT GOVNMNT AGNCY 1 Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt 2 Mur f Umlymt Th lbr mrkt hv mrvd, but g f gft lbr tr rm lvtd. Iflt A lbr mrkt tght, rv flt rg ftr. Dt Currt Lvl Umlymt t Umlyd 27 Wk r Lgr % f th Umlyd CPI = +1.6% CPI Srv Id = +2.9% Wrkg Prt Tm fr m CPI Cmmdty Id = -0.6% Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Th vry Cmrd t Prvu Grwth vr th rvry h b mrkdly lwr th t yl. Brd my Avrg f th Lt S m +.0% r yr +2.1% r yr Currt m Th yl h rdud muh lwr m grwth. 6 1
2 . 12/16/2016 Pttl m Grwth Ar w l t th lmt fr fltry grwth. Pttl GDP Grwth = Prdutvty + Lbr Fr Grwth = 1.2% Pttl m Grwth Lbr fr rtt h lugd vr th ur f th yl. Lbr fr rtt h drd hrly. Prdutvty Grwth = 0.6% Lbr Fr Grwth = 0.7% Avrg f th Lt S m Currt m Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Dmgrh: Prvdg fr Agg Pult Th umbr f l 6 d ldr rltv t th 2 t 6 wll r drmtlly mg yr. Yrly Dt 12/1/ /1/200 U.S. Pult By Ag ( % f Ttl Pult) rh & Dvlmt d Prdutvty Th rd lvl f &D dg hful g f mrvd rdutvty Ag /1/200 = 7.7% ( ) Sur: U.S. Cu Buru Ag 2 t 6 Ag /1/200 = 2.1% ( ) Ag 6 d ldr.0 : / Ag 6+ 12/1/200 = 20.2% ( ) 2. : / g &D dg ffr h fr mrvg rdutvty. (98) Cyrght 2012 Nd Dv rh, I. Furthr dtrbut rhbtd wthut rr rm. All ght rvd. S ND Dlmr t Fr dt vdr dlmr rfr t 9 Ifrmt bd dt frm rgzd rv d ur d blvd t b rlbl. Ay, rjt r rmmdt Cty Utlzt Lw ty utlzt rt hv md my dutr tly mttv. Bu Str U.S. ty utlzt h rdd gftly vr th lt 0 yr
3 Idutrl Prdut Th dwzg f rgy h tk tll dutrl rdut. Bu Sl d Pyrll Grwth Lw ty utlzt rt hv md bu rlutt t d. Dwzg f th rgy Str Avrg f th Lt S m Currt m Wkr yrll grwth Wk d dlg bu l grwth 1 ISM Mufturg Id Mufturg trgth uully wk m yl g. Lbr Ct ltv t Prft Prft wr rtrd ftr 2001 by lwrg lbr t. ISM Mufturg Id Shdd r hw Ntl Buru f m rh r Ut Lbr Ct Ut lbr t hv dld gftly 2001 Bgg t r Ut Nlbr Ct l Hurly Cmt mu Nfrm Prdutvty Hurly mt h trtd rg ftr th rdutvty Ut Prft rft mrvd Cmt ltv t Prdutvty Wg hk ut rur rft wh thy uttr rdutvty g. Wg G vru th S&P 00 Prft Mrg Mrg r t hv kd d r udr rur frm rg wg g. Nfrm rdutvty l Hurly Cmt Prft Mrg Mrg rdg. Alrtg wg. l Hurly Cmt mu Nfrm Prdutvty Hurly mt h trtd rg ftr th rdutvty Wg Grwth 18
4 Cumr Sdg & Im Grwth Iflt-djutd Md Fmly Im Aftr flt, fmly m hv dld vr th lt 1 yr. Pkd Im d Sdg Grwth Im d dg grwth lw by htrl tdrd but h lrtd rtly. Cmt f Prl Im mly Cmt h rdd rtg f Prl Im. Prl Im +.2% y/y mly Cmt Aftr-t Im +.% y/y Prrtr Im mly Cmt h dld gftly rtg f Prl Im tl Im Cumt +.6% y/y t At Nt Trfr t Hlth Cr Sdg d Prl Cumt g hlth r t hv utd fr mt f th r rl umt. A hr f m, umt h rd 6.% U 6.% 80% rt 7.% luv f hlth r, hwvr, dg h b flt. Flt 66% 66%
5 rt ltv t Pt vr Slwg wrld grwth d th rg vlu f th dllr h rdd U.S. rt. Glbl Mufturg Id v Prdut Th rg Glbl Mufturg Id uggt glbl rdut wll mrv. rt grwth h lwd gftly vr th lt fv yr. Currt m Th rg vlu f th dllr rdud rt l v mr. Avrg f th Lt S Bu Glbl Purhg Mgr Id (mvd hd tw mth) Idutrl Prdut Th Purhg Mgr Id hw mrvd utlk fr th glbl my 2 CBO Prjt fr th Fdrl Budgt Th dmgrh trd uggt lrgr dft r mg. Gvrmt Sdg Th rg d fr gvrmt brrwg wll r th brrwg t f vtmt rqurd t mlmt futur rdutvty mrvmt. 27 Mrkt Sulr Bull d Br Mrkt Durg Sulr bull yl v th hrtr-trm dl (br mrkt) r muh mldr. Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Sulr Bull qut Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Bd Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Cmmdt Sulr Bull Sulr Bull Sulr Bull 29 0
6 Dlur Ky Prvt Bk rt f KyBk Ntl At. Trut rv rvdd by KyBk Ntl At. Ivtmt r: NOT FDIC INSUD NOT BANK GUAANTD MAY LOS VALU NOT A DPOSIT NOT INSUD BY ANY FDAL O STAT GOVNMNT AGNCY 1 6
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