Pacific Hindcast Performance Evaluation Of Three Numerical Wave Models
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1 Pacific Hindcast Performance Evaluation Of Three Numerical Wave Models US Army Engineer Research and Development Center Jeff Hanson Barbara Tracy US Army Corps of Engineers Hendrik Tolman SAIC-GSO at NOAA NCEP Doug Scott W.F. Baird and Associates 9 th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting Victoria, B.C., Canada September 24-29, 2006
2 OBJECTIVE: Produce a 30-Year Pacific Wave Hindcast Quantify Model Performance Diagnose Model Deficiencies Oceanweather year 2000 NRAQ Winds (NCEP/NCAR + QUICKSCAT) Model Candidates: WAM, WAVEWATCH III (WW3), WAVAD Groundtruth Data from 7 NDBC and CDIP deep-ocean buoys
3 Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS) 1. Partition Buoy Spectrum NDBC Station z 09 November 2000 Direction From (Deg) Frequency (Hz)
4 Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS) 1. Partition Buoy Spectrum 2. Overlay Buoy Partition Template on Hindcast Spectrum NDBC Station z 09 November 2000 WAM at z 09 November 2000 Direction From (Deg) Frequency (Hz) Frequency (Hz)
5 Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS) 1. Partition Buoy Spectrum 2. Overlay Buoy Partition Template on Hindcast Spectrum 3. Compute Integral Parameters in each Partition Domain: H m0, T p, θ m NDBC Station z 09 November 2000 WAM at z 09 November 2000 Direction From (Deg) Frequency (Hz) Frequency (Hz)
6 Wave Model Evaluation and Diagnostics System (WaveMEDS) 1. Partition Buoy Spectrum 2. Overlay Buoy Partition Template on Hindcast Spectrum 3. Compute Integral Parameters in each Partition Domain: H m0, T p, θ m 4. Perform Statistical Analyses: RMS Error, Bias, Scatter Index, etc Temporal Correlations Quantile-Quantile Analysis
7 Performance Calculation Performance of Hindcasts h Relative to Measurements m ˆ E rms ( m ) b ) rms ( m ) RMS Error rms E rms = (1 ) Bias Scatter Index Angular Bias Circular Correlation bˆ Sˆ I bˆ a = = = (1 (1 (1 SI ) ba 180 C oˆ rr (%) = ) Corr Performance Scores are Averaged using Sample Size Weighting Factors
8 Pacific Hindcast Validation Stations
9 Significant Wave Height Model Performance Summary Temporal Correlations Quantile-Quantile Component WAVAD WAM WW3 WAVAD WAM WW3 Windsea Young Swell Mature Swell Combined
10 Significant Wave Height Model Performance Summary Temporal Correlations Quantile-Quantile Component WAVAD WAM WW3 WAVAD WAM WW3 Windsea Young Swell Mature Swell Combined
11 Significant Wave Height Model Performance Summary Temporal Correlations Quantile-Quantile Component WAVAD WAM WW3 WAVAD WAM WW3 Windsea Young Swell Mature Swell Combined
12 Typical Wave Height QQ Results Station November Wind Sea Young Swell Mature Swell WAM WW3 WAVAD
13 WW3 Monthly Mature Swell Height Metrics H m0 RMS Error Station Key H m0 Bias H m0 Scatter Index Year 2000
14 WW3 Wave System Comparison: Southern Swell H m0 =1m Hindcast Frequency (Hz) November 2000 Height Period Direction
15 WW3 Wave System Comparison: Northern Swell H m0 =1m Hindcast Frequency (Hz) November 2000 Height Period Direction
16 Source Winds too High? Enhanced kinematic analysis of March 2000 storms reduced bias by 20-30%
17 Need to Cap Atmospheric Drag C D? Wave Height Bias from Year 2000 Topex/Poseidon Altimetry WW3 Un-Capped C D 5 4 WAVEWATCH III CD * URI model Cap 1 Powell et al Powell et al. (2003) Large & Pond (1981) WW3 (upper and lower bound) Bulk, Our results (upper and lower bound) U10 (m/s) Courtesy of URI (m)
18 Need to Cap Atmospheric Drag C D? Wave Height Bias from Year 2000 Topex/Poseidon Altimetry WW3 Un-Capped C D WW3 Capped C D (m)
19 Summary Points 1. Unique Wave system validation method applied to 3 numerical models 2. All 3 models performed well; WAVEWATCH III consistently outperformed others 3. Mature swell height bias (+) a problem with 3G hindcasts in Northern Hemisphere winter % of bias attributed to hindcast wind field errors % of bias attributed to un-capped drag coefficient Additional gains will likely require source term improvements!
20 Thank You!
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