Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field
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1 12th International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther, et al. Hawaii November 2011
2 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field (1) (2) (2) (3) (2) (4) (1) Lennart Bengtsson University of Reading, United Kingdom and Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany (2) Heinz Günther Ralf Weisse Arno Behrens Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Germany (3) Alvaro Semedo Uppsala University, Sweden and CINAV-Portuguese Naval Academy, Portugal (4) Andreas Sterl The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
3 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field A1B scenario 20 th century 21 st century yrs 32 yrs PRESENT CLIMATE CONTROL RUN FUTURE CLIMATE (Bengtsson et al., 2007, 2009) ECHAM5 (T213; ~63 km; 0.5º) Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
4 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Poleward migration of extratropical Resolves tropical storms better Resolves near surface winds better Better treatment of extreme winds Same resolution as some RCM A1B scenario storms (more in the SH) Less storms (~3% less) Deeper storms Less ice 20 th century 21 st century yrs 32 yrs ERA-40 PRESENT CLIMATE CONTROL RUN FUTURE CLIMATE (Bengtsson et al., 2007, 2009) ECHAM5 (T213; ~63 km; 0.5º) Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
5 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field th century 21 st century yrs 32 yrs ERA-40 ERA-Interim PRESENT CLIMATE CONTROL RUN WAM FUTURE CLIMATE U10 ice ECHAM5 (T213; ~63 km; 0.5º) Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
6 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Data archive: ERA-40 ERA-Interim 20 th century 21 st century 78 0 S N; resolution hrs output yrs 32 yrs Integrated parameters and PRESENT CLIMATE (all!) spectra archived CONTROL RUN >40 TB of data WAM FUTURE CLIMATE U10 ice ECHAM5 (T213; ~63 km; 0.5º) Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
7 Present climate run - validation Validation of control run: -Comparisons (U10, Hs, and Tm1) with - ERA40 ( ) - C-ERA40 ( ) - ERA-Interim ( ) Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
8 Present climate runs - validation m/s U10 yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
9 Present climate runs - validation m/s % [m/s] U10 yearly means [m/s] WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Present climate run - validation [m] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA40](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/10-0.jpg "Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.12.")
10 Present climate run - validation [m] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
11 Present climate run - validation [m] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs C-ERA40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Present climate runs - validation [m] [%] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs C-ERA40](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/12-1.jpg "Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.12.")
12 Present climate runs - validation [m] [%] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs C-ERA40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Present climate runs - validation [m] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-Interim](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/13-1.jpg "Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.12.")
13 Present climate runs - validation [m] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-Interim Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Present climate runs - validation [m] [%] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/14-0.jpg "ERA-Interim Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.")
14 Present climate runs - validation [m] [%] Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-Interim Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
15 Present climate runs - validation Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
16 Present climate runs - validation Hs quantiles (95%) WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-40/C-ERA40/ERA-Int Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
17 Present climate runs - validation WAMECHAM5 overpredicts Hs (more in the Pacific, in swell dominated areas) WAMECHAM5 Hs patterns are consistent with the reanalysis (C-ERA40 and ERA- Interim) wave fields Verification with remote sensing to be done Hs quantiles (95%) WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-40/C-ERA40/ERA-Int Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
18 Present climate runs - validation [s] Tm1 yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA-Interim Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Present climate runs - validation [s]](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/19-0.jpg "[%] Tm1 yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA40")
19 Present climate runs - validation [s] [%] Tm1 yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
20 Present climate runs - validation WAMECHAM5 overpredicts Hs (more in the Pacific, in swell dominated areas) WAMECHAM5 Hs patterns are consistent with the reanalysis (C-ERA40 and ERA- Interim) wave fields Verification with remote sensing to be done ECHAM5 (might) overpredict U10 WAMECHAM5 Tm1 patterns are consistent with the reanalysis (ERA40) WAMECHAM5 present climate can be used as a control run for future global wave climate projections Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
21 Future wave climate projections [m] Hs yearly means Future versus present Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Future wave climate projections [m] [%] Hs yearly means Future versus present](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/22-1.jpg "Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.12.")
22 Future wave climate projections [m] [%] Hs yearly means Future versus present Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
23 Future wave climate projections Hs DJF means Future versus present Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Future wave climate projections [m] [%] Hs JJA means Future versus present](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/24-0.jpg "Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.12.")
24 Future wave climate projections [m] [%] Hs JJA means Future versus present Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
25 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Summary and conclusions - Projection of future global future wave climate (Hs), forced by the A1B scenario, revealed: - Poleward shift of Hs maxima, consistent with Bengtsson et al., 2007, 2009 (poleward shift of storm tracks, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere; - Slight decrease of Hs in the equator; and - Significant decrease of Hs in the mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in DJF. - Future work - Investigate U10 present (validation) and future patterns; - Investigate wave energy flux projections; and - Validate present Hs fields with altimetry. Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
26 Present climate run - validation m % Hs yearly means WAMECHAM5 vs ERA40 Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
![Future wave climate projections [m] Hs DJF means Future versus present](/docs-images/90/101613637/images/27-0.jpg "Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther 19.12.")
27 Future wave climate projections [m] Hs DJF means Future versus present Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
28 Future wave climate projections [m] Hs JJA means Future versus present Impact of a Warmer Climate on the Global Wave Field Heinz Günther
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