Francis O. 1, David H. Bromwich 1,2

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1 Impact of assimilating COSMIC GPS RO moisture and temperature profiles on Polar WRF simulations of West Antarctic cyclones Francis O. 1, David H. Bromwich 1,2 1 Polar Meteorology Group BPRC 2 Atmospheric Sciences Program Dept. Geog. Sixth FORMOSAT- 3/COSMIC Data Users' Workshop 30 Oct - 1 Nov 2012 UCAR Center Green Campus 3080 Center Green Drive, Boulder, Colorado U.S.A.

2 Objectives of the study Domain, significance Methods The four cases identified Simulation strategy Sources of observations Ensemble Kalman filter, 3DVAR Results (Work in Progress) Path of the storm Along path cross sections Basic filed (Temp., Wind Speed, Moisture, Pressure) Challenges

3 * Four synoptic scale cyclones are identified from the AMPS archives for 2007 * They are simulated using Polar WRF with and without data assimilation * Antarctic cyclones pose the greatest threat to safety Strong winds associated with these cyclones affect the safety of aircraft taking part in USAP operations. * A strong negative bias occurs in the amount of precipitation over the WAIS area based on a comprehensive intercomparison of climate models (Maris et al. 2012). * Cyclones advect significant amounts of heat and moisture; play a crucial role in the mass balance of the Ice Sheet on the continent. * Changes in the track and intensity of the storms responding to regional climate change could be a key factor in understanding and predicting future mass balance over the Antarctica. * Potential variability in their dynamic characteristics arising from changes in climate.

4 Left panel impact of analysis (ERA-Interim versus GFS-FNL); right panels depict model sensitivity to change in the radiation physics (CAM versus RRTMG) More locations are warmer in the ERA-Interim run than in the GFS-FNL run for temperatures below 270 K Changes due to radiation physics results in smaller scatter than from use of different analysis Temperature differences become smaller for temperatures above 274 K Larger surface pressure differences near 1000 hpa (over the ocean primarily) GPSRO best suited for data in these remote areas with large uncertainty

5 Model and Strategy Using Polar WRF 3.3.1; Extensively tested in Antarctica results will appear in Bromwich et al 2013 in JGR. Polar WRF physics configuration similar to that used in benchmarking Polar WRF 30 km horizontal resolution is used. 3DVAR assimilation in WRFDA used to assimilated GPSRO mainly to take advantage of parallel code. Final runs will use versions for both Polar WRF and WRFDA.

6 Model and Strategy of GPSRO phase (1 day) Forecast phase (No UTC (2 days) Cycled 3DVAR Assimilation every six hours for the first 24 hours GPSRO data from prepburf format (similar ASR) Forecast mode for the next 48 hours To minimize differences due to model forecast duration the forecast length is kept the same (48 hours) in both sets of experiments

7 Most upper air sta,ons located near the coast NO radiosonde sta,ons over the Southern Ocean Data performed only on the parent domain Terrain: Coarse at 45 km and 15 km path of the storm RAMP DEM data (Lui et al. 2001); Larger domain for more GPSRO SST Real-,me, global, analyses from NCEP Sea Ice- NSIDC SMM/I DMSP using bootstrapping Lateral boundary ERA- INT data versus GPSRO in a week: 8 16 Dec 07

8 Red contours are geopotential heights on Oct. 3 00Z ;the shading to demonstrate how the cyclone center was estimated at this time. Storm track derived from the approximate center of the 650 hpa geopotential heights from Polar WRF forecast at various times during the duration of the cyclone; 650 hpa is used due to difficulty of locating the center over where 850 geopotential height is below ground Most synoptic cyclones spin down on the elevated WAIS terrain this one did not

9 Preliminary Results Period of the storm studied here is Oct 2 to 7, 2007 Figures show snap shots at 1200 UTC on 3, and 7 Just completed runs with GPSRO assimilations (post processing in progress) Strong wind speeds are associated with the this synoptic cyclone near the surface Low pressure evident in 650 hpa geopotential heights

10 Simulations without data assimilation Provide the references for the GPSRO assimilated runs Coldest areas are also the driest Winds associated with the storm clearly influence both the near surface temperature and moisture

11 Analysis of differences experiments with GPSRO minus those without. Storm following analysis Complete the remaining three case studies Attempt to account for differences in Antarctic large scale analysis using Ensembles (EnKF) Characterization of the errors (Model, Observations and Method) in these simulations

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