METHODS, TOOLS AND BEST PRACTICES TO INCREASE THE CAPACITY OF URBAN SYSTEMS TO ADAPT TO NATURAL AND MAN-MADE CHANGES

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1 TMA J LdU,Mb ydev m T mb d c yv b gd v p d d w d m m : m Sm C : I CT db gd v b ym yc b b d d dp c y, mp v g c c y, q y dq y. B v p d g yc c k : c g Sm C v c. T m J L d,m b y de v m d p p w d p p c p g dm b y. T MAJ c v d Sp ce p S Op Ac c J db y Sc yp b g dac d m cr c C ( SP ARCE p ) d D c y Op Ac c J ( DOAJ ). ME T HODS, T OOL SA NDB E S TP RA CT I CE ST OI NCRE A S ET HECA P A CI T Y OFURB A NS Y S T E MST OA DA P TT ONA T URA L A NDMA NMA DECHA NGE S V Ap p I SSN I SSN U v y N p F d c I I

2 TMA J Ld U, Mby d Evm METHODS, TOOLS AND BEST PRACTICES TO INCREASE THE CAPACITY OF URBAN SYSTEMS TO ADAPT TO NATURAL AND MAN-MADE CHANGES 1 (2017) Pbd by Lby Ld U Mby d Evm DICEA - Dpm Cv, Acc d Evm Egg Uvy Np "Fdc II" TMA zd by CAB - C Lb Fdc II Uvy Np g Op J Sym Ed--c: Rcc Pp p ISSN ISSN Lcc: Cc d Tb d Np, 6 29/01/2008 Ed cpdc Lby Ld U Mby d Evm DICEA - Dpm Cv, Acc d Evm Egg Uvy Np "Fdc II" Pzz Tcc, Np wb: -m: dz.m@. Cv Img: Fyd Nwdd, Cd, Jdy M TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

3 TMA. J Ld U, Mby d Evm c, ppc d cb w d ppc pg d mby d pb g -dcpy pp c p, d d vm. Dm cd: gg, pg, mdg, bv, cmc, ggpy, g cc, cgy, cc d dg, wk cc d cmpx ym. T I N Agcy Ev Uv d Rc I (ANVUR) cd TMA cc j A 08. TMA cvd Spc Ep S Op Acc J d by Scy Pbg d Acdmc Rc C (SPARC Ep) d Dcy Op Acc J (DOAJ). TMA pbd d Cv Cmm Ab 3.0 Lc d bd p vwd by w cd mg g-p c. TMA b pbd c 2007 d dxd m bbgpc db d p cg dd cdmc d c b wdwd. EDITOR IN-CHIEF Rcc Pp, Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy EDITORIAL ADVISORY BOARD M A, Uvy I, USA Lc B, Uvy Amdm, Nd Lk B, G Uvy, Bgm D B, Pycc Uvy B, Iy Eq Cd, Pycc Uvy Mdd, Sp Rb Cmg, Pycc Uvy M, Iy Dck D Kckv, Uvy T, Cd Mk Dk, Edbg Np Uvy, Scd A Km, Uvy H, I Nc Km, A Uvy Tk, Gc Dvd Mw Lv, Uvy M, USA P Mm, Mg Gæc Uvy Cz, Iy Ag Nzz, T Vg Uvy Rm, Iy Rcc Pp, Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy Sg S, Ub Mpgy d Cmpx Sym I, Fc M Sm, N Kpd Uvy A, Gc A S, Sz Uvy, I ASSOCIATE EDITORS R B, N Rc Cc I Sd Md Sc, Iy Lg d'o, Uvy Cb, Sp Rm F, Uvy S, Iy Cm Gg, Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy Tm Hm, Uc Uvy, Nd Mk H, Uvy Lxmbg, Lxmbg Sd Kdk, Tcc Uvy Ib, Tky R A L Rcc, Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy Hmd Ebmp Mm, Tcc Uvy B, Gmy Gpp Mzz, N Rc Cc I Sd Md Sc, Iy Nc M, Abg Uvy, Dmk Ec Pp, Uvy Wm, Ud Kgdm D Pj, Uvy Qd, A F Zc, Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy EDITORIAL STAFF G Ag, PD d Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy Gd Cp, PD d Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy S Fc, PD d L Uvy Rm, Iy Mc Rmd, Eg, Uvy S, Iy L R, PD d Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy M R Tm, PD d Uvy Np Fdc II, Iy Ad T, PD Scd Uvy Np, Iy TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

4 TMA J Ld U, Mby d Evm METHODS, TOOLS AND BEST PRACTICES TO INCREASE THE CAPACITY OF URBAN SYSTEMS TO ADAPT TO NATURAL AND MAN-MADE CHANGES 1 (2017) C 3 EDITORIAL PREFACE Rcc Pp FOCUS 5 Cb d c. W gw mk g V C 25 T w v Lj. Pbc pc gd cmp mw mgm c Mm M LAND USE, MOBILITY AND ENVIRONMENT 41 T cv b g pc d c-c c Mm Fk Ak, Sü Bbğ, Cgz U, H Dymş 57 Pg gm I mp c. Ey d Gpp Mzz 77 Scmg m cy pg d dvpm. Expg p d p Mg Agd TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

5 95 Acv p c d cd' bdy wg. A ymc vw Hmd E. Mm 111 REVIEW PAGES G Ag, Gd Cp, M R Tm, L R, Ad T TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

6 TMA J Ld U, Mby d Evm TMA 1 (2017) 5-24 p ISSN , - ISSN d: / /5068 Sc d db bd vw d pby Cc Cmm Mmb 9 I Cc Iv Ub d Rg Pg (INPUT 2016) -gà/-ἀγορά wd cmm Lcd d Cv Cmm Ab N Cmmc Lc Hw c m APA m: C, V. (2017). Cb d c. W gw mk g. Tm. J Ld U, Mby d Evm, 10 (1), d: p://dx.d.g/ / /5068 ABSTRACT CONURBATIONS AND RESILIENCE. WHEN GROWTH MAKES US FRAGILE VALERIO CUTINI Uvy P -m: v.c@g.p. URL: T pp cd cb, xv b g m xp d ccc v gbg c. Tw dy c. T, dvpm cb, c cy mk d bk c, j pp wkw c by C Ck, cg db d d c b dvpm: d, mkg q d wk, cmpg w gd, cy w mvm d c v m, mkg pb wkg cb wd b ym; d, g p mvm cc mj w w d ccg g c d w dvpm, cy bypg p-xg b bc d dvg gc m c c m b gd, w vv b g g mvm pvd. T cd, cmpmy m, mgg c d mbddg cb dc c w m, c cpby ym db ccd v d m w gcy cgg gb bv. T pm cb d dcc y c w b bvd m cg p vw, yg by m pc yx cq b m Fc, md d c dy. T xpcd bjcvy dcb -b d mkg cb, d pp x wc gm w w cc mg ggpy d cg gb vby. M g, cg ppc, b ppg b gd c bw pyc cy d pm cc g p, c g pv kg p d c q, bdg d gp bw b dg, cd mpgc bck d bdg, d p y, cy ccd w db mvm w wk. KEYWORDS: Ub pw, cb, c, cg y

7 TMA 有关土地使用 交通和环境的杂志 TMA 1 (2017) 5-24 p ISSN , - ISSN d: / /5068 Sc d db bd vw d pby Cc Cmm Mmb 9 I Cc Iv Ub d Rg Pg (INPUT 2016) -gà/-ἀγορά wd cmm Lcd d Cv Cmm Ab N Cmmc Lc Hw c m APA m: C, V. (2017). Cb d c. W gw mk g. Tm. J Ld U, Mby d Evm, 10 (1), d: p://dx.d.g/ / /5068 摘要 城市圈与适应力 城市发展让我们更脆弱 本文重点介绍城市圈, 即几个邻近城市的扩张和聚集所导致的城市区域扩张 研究从两个方面入手 首先, 在城市圈的发展中, 交通实际上扮演着 城市创造者和破坏者 的双重身份, 这里套用了 C Ck 的一本名著的书名, 书中主要讲述了道路和交通在城市发展中所起的双重作用 (Ck,1958 年 ): 一方面, 建造一个四通八达的独特公路网, 人们便可以相互来往, 城市圈便可以像广域市那样发挥作用 ; 而另一方面, 主要人流集中在连接原先核心区与新开发区的几条道路上, 实际上绕开了原有的城市干道, 分散了城市街道的大量本地人流, 与此同时还会因人口密集区的人流分流而导致经济损失 第二点, 作为对上一条的补充, 核心区整合为城市圈会削落整个居民区的适应力, 反过来影响社会应对意外事件和改变的能力, 但不会显著改变其整体行为 这里将从全局角度来研究城市圈现象及其适应力的历时性分析, 而佛罗伦萨城市居住区被当成了理想的案例研究对象, 对其进行了空间句法分析 结果将客观地描述城市圈建设中各城际道路的作用, 并探讨在改变内部地理环境和加强整体危机防范方面的一致性程度 通常, 顺理成章地将城市网视为连接实际城市及沿路景象之间纽带的全局方法, 再次证明了它有助于在空间问题与交通问题之间建立联系, 从而缩小关注街区和建筑的形态特征的传统城市设计与严密关注四通八达的街道中人流分布的交通分析之间的差距 VALERIO CUTINI Uvy P -m: v.c@g.p. URL: 关键词 : 城市扩张 ; 城市圈 ; 适应力 ; 全局分析

8 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg 1 INTRODUCTION T pp cd cb, xv b g m xp d ccc v gbg c. A pc w b dvd ppy c, md m d dd cpby b ym, k w p, db ccd v d m w gcy cgg ggpy d gb bv. Sc ppy dy b cdd ky, d cpcy ym c cvy pg v c xcp ccc, d, dy cd, xby d wk dp cgg c m. Tw dy c. T, dvpm cb, c cy mk d bk c, j pp w-kw c by C Ck, cg db d d c b dvpm (Ck, 1958) : d, mkg q d wk, cmpg w gd, cy w mvm d c v m, mkg pb wkg cb wd b ym; d, g p mvm cc mj w w d ccg g c d w dvpm, cy bypg p-xg b bc d dvg gc m c c m b gd, w vv b g g mvm pvd. T cd, cmpmy m, mgg c d mbddg cb dc c w m, c cpby ym db ccd v d m w gcy cgg gb bv. T pm cb d dcc y c w b bvd m cg p vw, by m pc yx cq, g p p w gd pmy m c dvpm. Sv gg m pcc c Fc d c dy: pc pm d d c, wd c b dvpm, pc mp mwy c cb m mbddd c d wk. 7 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017) Fg. 1 T Fc: p

9 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg Sc bgg md gw, p-w y, pc p d d Fc dcd dvpm Fc N-W dc, dm pgv bz -cd p (y F p ), bdg g w q cb mb p-xg c, my Cz, Cmp Bz, L Sg, S F d Sg, p dg P d P. Ov m, b cg d p vc ccby c c v g dcg m d m pm cv wd dvpm, wc w dmv dpm Tcy Rg, g p, P d Cv C, v dpm Uvy Fc, p, v g ppg c, ypmk d dpm. A c d cc cv, F p dy m cv p w m, cbcg d pv d cv c c Fc, w vcv g d ccv mg. T dmv gm w m, wc vp 11 mcp, pvd pv gb c dvpm d c pbc p ym v ; d, c d wk m gy ppd by mwy A1, wc c Fc w d d cy wk c d, y ccg cb. T db cg v v m, gw cb d ccdg pgv m gd, w b dmd by m dcc y c bgg XIX cy d p p m. Sc y xpcd pvd m gc m m ggpy Fc d mvm p w mkg cb. T m xpcd pp mwy cy py w p p b vc mvm, ggg dg wc b ccg c, w c mpvm d dc: mk d bk c, d. 2 BACKGROUNDS Tw m, vy ccd, pp wv. O d, wd gw b m, wc pw v m m cb, mgg d bdg g v p-xg b c; c gw d mgg vv mdc ggpy g c d g g v cy wd w dvpm ; ccdgy, mvm p cd by cg, wc c d db c w. A g m vc c w, pbm d b bg b m, 60 y g Ck pd ; pc mwy w cb c m c dy Fc, xdg c mwy w b d wk, d c mvm. Dp vd cc, w - b mpgy d dymc, d, d c db, d - gy ppcd m d p vw, dcpy dv d by g-g d p. T m p bw m d c c d mp - cmpg pbc pc m d wy ccd w bck d bdg - b dpy vgd. T q vc c w c d bck mdd 20 cy, w c c c mpd d, b mkg pc vc cmpb w bdg, pd d b. T ky d Md Mvm, xpc 8 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

10 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg A C d dd wdy c w pg dcd cm, w p bdg d d, bg w m m c, pvdg b d w q cc d ccy cyg m w c c w d d cpcy. I w mdg p bw b d d bdg cy vv mv c wy m bdg, d c xc dd : cd (L Cb, 1930) w kw b cy w c p. Sg d c cc d b mpgy, c c-dv ppc w qd ccym (Lwy-Dv, 1968) v cm, dy pg w d c gg d (b) dg (M, 2005). Sc mdd 20 cy, m c m vc c ggd v dc bw d c d cc p bdg w cc y d d my gc (Tpp, 1950; p. 297), pd bq cc cc b d by Bc Rp: bcy, y w kd d db dgd mvm, d cc d v bdg (MT, 1963; p. 44). Sc dc c vvd mp c cd cmpb w b bc d pvg m m ppcg d gvg cc bdg (Tpp, 1950); Oxd S, Ld, cd vy bd xmp dg pmcy, cg vg, pd jd by c vy ppg dy (Tpp, 1950; p. 297). T dv bw b cd d b m, pd by mp p, w dpm dvdy ccb d c b cd by g (MT, 1963), w pdgmc pg Rdb, Nw Jy, w d p md, w bc c g-d mvm d p g c: ppg, b d d m b kp q p m d b- d, d cd c d ( ); y ym c d m b c w d -c g-c (Tpp, 1950; p. 310). O w, w w d dv c d w p p (M, 2005; p. 48). Rv d cg ccm v g b d g c ppc - m, mg, J Jcb d Cp Axd -, my cmpg mpvm vv, wkg c d g ccby m c c wd ppy (Jcb, 1961; Axd, 1966); y p bw mvm d b pc p wdy, d q ccg d wk d ccby pc d cv my cd m c d pcc m c g,, w d, m c p vw (Tpp, 1950). I g bv cd, w b c wy cg ppc w cd p c dy. I m b gd pmy m db mvm, c ppc w cd cg wk ky m p m bv (H, H, 1984) d c m b pm (H, 1996b); w d vv cg ppc c b y p md, c pvd mc m c w. N, cg vw dcvy p g p wk p mvm m mp pc pdc. I p p dg pc mvm, d g d g pc ccdg d b c mvm (H, 2005; p. 99); c pg mvm, p p wk p p m c-pc - d c c-bc m b ky gd c m d c g w pyc g (H, 2005; p. 99). T m mvm, b p bw mvm d 9 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

11 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg b pc; w xcy m c ccd w, d pm b pw Fc d c db c w. Tw wd pp ccg m ccd. T bvy m c, d pc mwy, ppg w d cb d gby pyg, m x, b. T cd gd pp w cb d d wk, w pc c c. Ad b c b y vgd by m cg ppc. F w cc b mvm, m c v b cdcd dcd, wd g dc: dcg d mpc mvm, qy d gd cg (H., 1993), dcg cpby pc yx bd md pdc pd w (Jg, 1999), dmg g p cg v w db pd w (C, 2001), ppg pc yx c y pd (Rd, Rgd, 2004), dcg p bw cycg d b mpgy (Rd, Cd, 2007), wg pb pc yx pp pg cycg (D, 2015), ggg ppcby pc yx bcyc cy pg (McC, Gck, 2008). A c g g v d cc v b ckwdgd d b dc cy. D cy, dg: w g pdc -mvm p p m d (C, 2005), cc m g-mvm p m pc (H., 1993; H, 1996; P., 1998; H, Id, 2005). A w pccy cc y d mpvm vc c b, pc yx dy b vy d d d, cg v ; mg, pc yx p y (P., 2008), cpdc bw pg cc d c (Gp., 2012), pc yx c gm (B., 2007), cy m c (Scpp., 2009; Kz, W, 2009), c pmz (Zg., 2008), c c (Dyk, Jyg, 2014), c (Dzmbv, 2014) d. A d md, g -bd p pdcg c w, v b ppd d ccy d (Jg, L, 2007). Ad g bv v d g w cg w c vc mvm, wg c gd dc c w (Jg, 2008). I pp pp dc m b md wy ppxmg c d pdcg db w. I w ddd m p bw c d b bc, dcg wy db d p c cg w pwg gw m, w gd g cmp d cd x-b d. I c c d qy m m gd w cb wk c c db, my pg bw g b c v g gg. H b dymc d m c g cmbg d wg, cg c d cg v pbm, b b d c d. Ad,, cg ppc, md ccg d gg pc, c cy py p. Cy kd m c b c, wc cgy gdd ky ppy b ym d b vy dcd d dc d pdc d. A c, b cd wk c w b k cc, md cpby b ym, k w p, db ccd v d m w gcy cgg ggpy d gb bv (C, 2013); d, w cm vc c, c wc kd v m my 10 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

12 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg ccd: c ccd, d dp, c jm, c g. W pc mk wk c gy d c dmy ppd dd c v p m y g y d; w, d, c cy c c, d vby d wk y bc, w xby d cpcy dp d c. W c wk c, m dc v b dcd d d (C, 2013): m ccvy v gd (b gy pdcg dy d vy p ccg c x mp), qcy v (b pdcg dg wc p dd v gd) d ygy cc (pdcg g c bw db g v d c). I pp pm w b dcd d dcd w c c dy Fc, md ppg dg pz mvm w db, b gdd c vby ym. 3 METHODOLOGY A d bv, cg ppc w cd y cb. W ggd cc mp b gd pmy m db mvm d c dmg p m bv (H, H, 1984): my mvm, wc d d dd by v pcp p y, d g mvm, c cv, d v d. A cg ppc mp b gd c, d p bw m, c vc cg mvm w (H, 1996); wc b dv mvm-kg cv wd m cwdd pc d dd mvm-vdg wd m ggd d dd. Sv p cq cmpd d dm pc yx - v b dvpd, dg m pc wy dcg gd ym, d c g p m cmpg : x y (H, H, 1984), vx vby gp y (T., 2001), gm gm y (T, 2005), d-c d-c y (T, 2007), mk p M.P.P.A. (C, 2004). Dp dc, cq m ccp b kcd bv; d pvd c m gd (, vx, gm, d-c mk p) w pm b pdcg d b pc. Amg pm, g d cc v ckwdgd b dcbg cg ggpy m. Ig md v m dp m w pc m gd (H, H, 1984), d d dcb ccby, w y g m m; ccy, c, w pvd b wy pdcg c dy cd cv, d c db cv, vc pc wk ppg c (C, 2005). Cc, dd qcy p m p ccg p m, b mg w ky m b pd g: c, v d g c cc w db mvm w (H., 1993; P., 1998; H, Id, 2005). I wd, w g pdc -mvm p p m d, cc m g-mvm p m pc (H, 2012). W c wk c, m dc v b dcd d d (C, 2013). A pm m ccvy v gd, wc m dy d vy p ccg c m. Hg v ccvy ky g d 11 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

13 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg pc v p d c cpby b ym bb m gd m w gcy mdyg (C, Rb, 2012). A dx k cc db p: bg ym pvdd w wdpd pc p v gd d, cy, vb cczd by d cc g m mb p m. O c b, dc c w dcd (C, 2013) g cc v d mxmm qcy p m cd p, w wd cc w cd p bw y cp m. I ym m, dx, cd qcy dx, xp w: v = cc mx/( 2 /2 3/2 + 1) T qcy v bvy v m 0 1, cg c ym dc. I xm c, d b cd p ccg cp (v = 1), ym wd vb g dg, c p w (d dpd ) g. A pm, cd ygy cc, pdc g c bw db g v d c (c v gb). Sc g w pvd b pdcg db b cy d v d, g cpdc gb d c g c b md c d ym. T pm c c b d gb dc wk c w ym d pdc d v m. T cg cq md x y w ppd c dy Fc d V cb; b c c gd ccy d d w yd d b pcv cg d c dcc d dg mkg cb. 4 THE CASE STUDY A pd bv, c ppd c dy F cb, wc g gwg d c c Fc c mdd 20 cy. T pp m g pc yx d cc dcc g cg w ym, m d pcdg md gw Fc, p p p m. Gv g p c cg dc w c w, y gd cg d d (b d -w gw) w w ppg c mwy A1 w b gd, c cmpm w w cb d p p d. T p cg w b c-cd w vb vc c d, d v c dg c mwy w b ym Fc d ky c db c c w. O gd, d c b pmy pd, d dcb g m mwy c Fc. T mwy A1, pd 1964 d bjc pzg wk, w cy cd by pwg Fc 70 d wwd w cb d cy. I F, mwy pvdd w 5 g c d x (my, m, Fz Sd, Fz Imp, Fz Scdcc, Fz Nd d Cz); dd, m w mwy g, P E d Fz Ov, mwy A11. T c d mwy A1 (g vc) 2014 d g Fc pd g 2, wc w y c p vg c vm mwy F TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

14 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg Fg. 2 Tc d (g vc) mwy A I c pp c c mwy A1 gy cd by c c, c mvm w b g d d w Fc b. I wd, dc bw vg v w Fc (50,000/67,500 g vc) d v d (d 40,000 g vc) c b cy cdd j b c. I w c Fc, d bv y vc 2014 pd g c g mwy A1, c d, pvdd by Ad p I S.p.., p mwy, w b 1 d 2. d g Cz Fz Nd Fz Scdcc Fz Imp Fz Sd Fz Ov P E T Cz - 252, , , , ,070 32,946 2,253,935 Fz Nd 428, , , ,737 19,051 46,453 1,364,764 Fz Scdcc 925,831 82, ,686 1,463, , ,720 4,359,938 Fz Imp 406,377 59, ,864-1,387, , ,514 3,361,904 Fz Sd 474,631 52,495 1,458,769 1,452, , ,636 4,246,414 Fz Ov ,312,974 3,313,539 P E 32,202 30, , , ,617 3,211,232-4,970,365 T 2,267, ,481 3,943,559 3,443,696 4,193,512 4,491,201 5,054,243 23,870,859 Tb. 1 Vc w Fc 2014 (c: Ad p I S.p..) 13 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

15 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg D Og W Fc T Pcg Fc Cz 2,253,935 3,556, % Fz Nd 1,364,764 2,800, % Fz Scdcc 4,359,938 7,149, % Fz Imp 3,361,904 4,922, % Fz Sd 4,246,414 6,950, % Fz Ov 3,313,539 6,677, % P E 4,970,365 7,075, % 23,870,859 39,132, % Tb. 2 Vc w Fc 2014 d T d pd b pcy c d gy mpv: v 60 p c vc mvm cy g mwy cy c d, cd d F, v g g 70 p c m g: gc m mwy c Fc c cy c b c, gg p vy vc c g dw p d mkg Ad d S vy cwdd mwy, w g pcg b, c jm d c ccd. Cvy, g m vc c d m c w F cb d cy mwy, pg b gd, dp pym vv. A m c, v mwy g pp my wkg b wk d, x-b mvm m. T q w c gm b ckwdgd cd by c m;, wd, pb d y c gd cg pmy m ddg cc wd mwy. I d w q, cg y m w cd, bgg m dcc y, md ccg g v m gd cg, d cg p ym. A dcc y m, gc d v b cd, b dyg my pc-mkg mm md gw Fc. T 1825, d L cd gy, by pdcg y cy 1:1,250 c j b bgg md b gw. Ap m w pc m, c pp dmy cgd w pc gd Rc. T cd d 1858, j y b x Kgdm Iy. T d d 1867, pg 6 y w Fc w cp Iy, d, bv, pdc m wk cd c ; mg m, pc, b md dm c ww, b w g bvd d z x-m d dvpm. T d d 1910 d 1938, w d pgv cd d gw c. T x d 1955, pdcg d wd d, w bgg dc gw wd -w, wc pp dvpd wg d, 1970; cc gw d by cgpy g d d, pcvy 1990 d 2015, w pgv mgg -w bz w dg m d mkg p cb, wwg d cdg y mwy. T gd cpdg c d bv w yzd by x y TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

16 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg T dcc d db g v Fc mmzd g 4. A ym g gy cg v y ( c b g 3), w pd d c p, d m vw w ym d cy dcb db v d d v m. Fg. 3 T gd Fc p d d (bv d ggd bx) TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

17 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg Fg. 4 Db gb g Fc Sm cd y m bv. F, pgv cy, m gmc c c wd x d dvpm, cy w g 5: w mp 19 cy g g pp dy p ccdg w cd d dcm g Rm y cy, vy Fc, c y w cy g pp gg m d m cv. T mkg cb, dcd cy, pp vv c g c wd, p, 2015, wg dy cd bw c ww d c -w dvpm. T mg g 5 p c c g v gb, w cc w md bv ygy v, ccg x wc c c dpd 16 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

18 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg w p cy. T dx c b md dc dg wc d c m cy cd, cc ygy gb wkg cy, wc cmmy ckwdgd v ppy b : c g c, c g pm g gb c, cg g d pcvb c bw w m d g p. T dcc d ygy cc, c 1825 p p m w c wkg c cd w cy (m R 2 = 0.92 R 2 = 0.55), pw Fc d gwg cb. Fg. 5 C c (R = 3) v. gb g Fc T g 6 mmz dcc d c pm pd , ggg c c p vby ym. I c, dc m ccvy v d dc ddcy cc, w cmmy ckwdgd dm m b c (Sg, 2005), w pc c b (Dpy, 1991). Mv, dc ygy v d wkg p p bw w m d c c, wc cd d d d wy, dcd m 17 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

19 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg gb p c. Fm, p qcy v d g pz wk c d md mb d x. J k -k p dcbd by Cp Axd, w mj k mwy, dbg mvm w gbd cd d: Wv w v c, m w c pc y v ccd, xcp g mdm w (Axd, 1965; p. 50). Fg. 6 T d c pm gd Fc pd A pm pp d gd cg cpdg 70, d c b y d mkg cb d mbddg mwy w gd: p, w m cy pp gy dpdg d db d, d bv mwy, pvdd w g v cc: d y pb c d ( ky cc, d pb c ccd c jm, y q cwdd c d), w b ym wd b k gby cpg. A qd (P., 1998; H, Id, 2005; Id, H, 2005; T, 2005) ggd g gm y, ccdg d v mc d, d dm ky p mvm. Sc y w ppd p gd Fc, w d vyg m 400 m p g v 15,000 m d cmp w cb. Obvy w v d xpcd pvd ky p pd mvm, w g b pdcg db vc c. T y, w cc db cc v, mmzd g 7 d v db pd mvm (R= 400/800 m) my vv c, mkg cy mg g gd c Rm cy; d, vc c w (R= 15,000 m) pcy d c c, wd dg cb. A, ppp m p vc mvm p wd m cg md c z b gd. A m c z, wc p ppxmy cv ccd w c ww, d cy cc 18 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

20 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg d wk m. A cc, db cc v, w d 15,000 m, pp w g 8. Fg. 7 Db cc v Fc d v mc d Fg. 8 Db cc v Fc (R= 15,000 m), md c z 19 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

21 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg T g bv gg w mj c db, pvdd w g cc v: d gm cmpg g dg c c -cd v, wc 1865 bd p-xg ww; d F c mwy A1, ppg g w d cb. T pp xcy cpd c pm c cg Fc, pcvd cmm w bjcvy mb by dc vy. B pp cy mz d cc c g d b b c cd ( g d d) d d b b d c cmm gv cc m ( b) (Tpp, 1950; p. 297) w md bv. Tw pc w ggg. F, mwy pp dv gc m c m b bc, dpvg m m pc by-pdc g-d mvm (H, 1996b). Mv, c d m, b d, w w g c mvm my dg m, g mvm, b pd mvm, xcvy cmpd w c d c pccy x v wd cb. T cc qc c db / c c d / pd p dy bd by m c gg c db b mvm pp bk d cmp m m, my d bc mc c c d c c, b cvg d dbg c c: dccy, c c, H w, qg J Pp,, c bw c mvm (H, 1996b; p. 56). T vdc dc dpy vg cy cg v, bvg cg qcy db cc v 2015 d 1930, b mgg cb (g. 9). I c b v 95% v dy d 5 pc, w 1935 c pcg w d 83%. T cc v pp c w P db: w (2% 1930, 0.2% 2015) k vwmg mjy p bw y cp, d p c g p w pgv mkg cb. Fg. 9 Fqcy db cc v x mp Fc 2015 d 1935 T dc cc v pp p gg pg db by m gg k-cc dgm, vg x-x gm k (dd by dcg v cc) (g. 10). T dgm pp wy cpd ypc Zp c ß g R + g C = g C 1 = c p c- d, wc c cpdc py wk d cc v pdy dp TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

22 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg Fg. 10 Lg-g k-cc v x mp Fc 2015 d 1935 T db pd g 9 d 10 c mgg cb dmd g pz mvm w g vy md mb p m, g v mjy c. Cvy, cg mb (v 95% 2015) pp xcdd by g mvm v gd. Cmpg c dg w c db cc v pd g.8, w my y bv vy pm pz mwy, w bb bc pp m y ggd m mj c w. 5 CONCLUSIONS T kcd bv w c cc b dw c mkg F cb. F, dcc y cg cm c pgv g cy m g c wd -w dvpm. Bd, c w ym pp wkg c gwg cb d g pz wk c d md mb d x; mg m, mwy A1 pc, ppg bzd w d, pp pz m w c w cb. Mv, g m mvm byp b gd cb, mvg m b g b d g mwy, v c pym: v mjy cc mwy g g F cy cpd c ( ) mvm. Fm, mwy A1 pp ppmg b, mppy ccg ppg wkg ym; w bvy vv c wg c cd, vy bc vy c g dw I p. Y, p m c c, c mwy dv gc m vc c w m b gd, vvg b g g mvm pvd. Ad c pc pp w ggg, y cy c b ggpy m d my c, kg m d mkg vd m c. M g, vg d c Fc, w pc dv pc c. T ppd md c b ppd g mwy mp, d v p bw mwy d b d wk d c gm -b d w ym cb: wdpd pm, cmmy g m gw b m d pw dg. Ev m g, cg ppc, b ppg b gd c bw pyc cy d pm cc g p, c g pv kg p d c q, bdg d gp bw b dg, cd 21 - TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

23 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg mpgc bck d bdg, d p y, cy ccd w db mvm w wk. REFERENCES Axd, C. (1965). A Cy T. Dg, 206, Axd, C. (1966). T P S. J Amc I P, 32, 5, B, A.P.B.G., d Sv, P.C.M., & d Hd, F.R.B. (2007). Expy Sdy Spc Syx Tc Agm T. I: Pcdg 6 Spc Syx Sympm, Ib, Tky, Ck, C. (1958). Tp. Mk d bk c. T Tw Pg Rvw, 28, 4, C, V. (2001). Ub Spc d Pd Mvm A Sdy Cg Hyp. Cybg, 188, 111, C, V. (2005). Cg d Cy. Sm Evdc m w I C Sd. I: Pcdg 10 Spc Syx Sympm, A, USA, 2005, pp C, V. (2013). T cy w mb. Eqk dc, p-qk cc d gd cg. I: Km, Y. O.; Pk, H. T.; S, K. W., Ed. Pcdg N I Spc Syx, S: Sjg Uvy, 2013, pp C, V., & Rb, G. (2012). Scg Ad Td. Sm mk b c d. TMA J Ld U, Mby d Evm, 5, 2, 2012, C V., P M., & Scc, A. (2004). Fm x mp Mk P Pm Ay (M.P.P.A.). A G.I.S. mpmd md m cg y. I: Cmp Scc d Appc ICCSA 2004 Lc N Cmp Scc, 2004, D, N. (2015). Mmm Ig: Syx Cycg. I: Pcdg 10 Spc Syx Sympm, Ld, UK, 2015, pp Dyk, U., A.M., & Jyg, A. (2014). Rd c c d d cg - pc yx ppc. 7 FARU Sympm Pcdg 2013, FARU J, 1, 5, Dpy, G. (1991). L Ubm d Réx; Amd C: P, Fc. Dzmbv, A.M., Dmv, D.D., & Tvk, T.H. (2014). Impvg Tc N Sm Ug Spc Syx: Pmy R m Tw Rdwy Sym. Acv Id Hyg d Txcgy, 65, 3, Fm, L.C. (1977). A S M Cy Bd Bw. Scmy, 40 (1), Gp, G., Rk, Y., & S, V. (2012). Tc Nwk d Ub Evm: Adpd Spc Syx Appc. Tp Rc A, 48, H, B., & H, J. (1984).T Sc Lgc Spc; Cmbdg Uvy P, Cmbdg, UK. H, B. (1996). Spc Mc; Cmbdg Uvy P, Cmbdg, UK. H, B. (1996b). C Mvm Ecm. Ub Dg I, 1, 1, H, B. (2005). T pc d cc pc. Wd Acc, 11, 185, H, B. (2012). T Gc Cd C. I mp w k? I: Jv Pg, J.; My, H.; Sk, E.; T, E., Ed. Cmpxy T Hv Cm Ag; Spg: B, H, B., P, A., H, J., Gjvk, T., & X, J. (1993). N Mvm:, Cg d Ac Ub Pd Mvm. Evm d Pg B. Pg d Dg, 20, TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

24 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg H, B., & Id, S. (2005). Nwk d Pycgc Ec: Ty Ub Mvm. C, A.G. Mk, D.M. C 2005, LNCS Spg-Vg: B Hdbg, Gmy, Id, S., & H, B. (2005) Dgggd p -wk y w -Ecd wgg. I: Pcdg 5 Spc Syx Sympm, D, Nd, 2005, Jcb, J. (1961). T D d L G Amc C; J Cp: Ld, UK. Jg, B. (1999). SmPd: Smg Pd Fw V Ub Evm. J Ggpc Im d Dc Ay, 3, 1, pp Jg, B. (2008). S Hc: A My S Acc Mjy Tc Fw. Avb : xv.g/b/ Jg, B. (2008). Rkg Spc Pdcg Hm Mvm Ub Evm. I J Ggpc Im Scc:, Spmb Jg, B., & Cm, C. (2007). A Sc Appc Md G Ub S Nwk Avb : p://m.g./~bjg/g2003.pd. Jg, B., & L, C. (2007). S-bd Tpgc Rp d Ay Pdcg Tc Fw GIS. Avb : xv.g/b/ Kz, A., W, S. (2009). C Bw Cy Exp Tc Fw? 12 AGILE I Cc Ggpc Im Scc 2009, Lbz Uvä Hv, Gmy, 1-9. L Cb (1930). Péc é pé d cc d bm; Cè: P. Lwy-Dv, R. (1968). Tw Dg. I: Lw, D., Ed. Ub Sc, Acc Ybk 12; Ek Bk: Ld, UK. M, S. (2005). S d P; Sp P: Abgd, UK. McC, C.T., Gck, N. (2008). Appcby Spc Syx Bcyc Fcy Pg. Tp Rc Rcd. J Tp Rc Bd, 2074, My Tp (1963). Tc Tw. H Mjy' Sy Oc: Ld, UK. P, A., H, B., B, D., & X, J. (1998). Cg Mdg Ub Mvm Nwk. Evm d Pg B. Pg d Dg, 25 (1), P, R.H.M., d Hd, F.R.B., d Md, V.A.S., & B, A.P.B.G. (2008). T U O Spc Syx I Ub Tp Ay: Lm Ad P. I: Pcdg 8 Spc Syx Sympm, Sg d C, C, 2008, pp Rd, N., & Rgd, D. (2004) Spc Syx: Ivv Pd Vm Mdg T Pd Sy. Tp Rc Rcd. J Tp Rc Bd, 1878, Rd, N., Cd, A.J., & G, J. (2007). Spc Syx: T R Ub Fm Cyc R Cc C Ld. UC Bky: S Tp Rc & Edc C. Sg, N.A. (2005). Pcp Ub Sc; Tc P: Amdm, Nd. Scpp, M., Fc, S., & Pp, J. (2009). T Ec S Ccvy p Db Lc Vc Tc Mp A. I: Pcdg 7 Spc Syx Sympm, Sckm, Swd, 2009, pp Tpp, H.A. (1950). Tw Pg d Rd Tc. Edwd Ad: Ld, UK. T, A. (2005). Cd C-d L b Ax L Dg? I: Pcdg 5 Spc Syx Sympm, D, Nd, 2005, pp T, A. (2007). Fm x d-c. A Nw Rp pc yx d w md cc p wk y. Evm d Pg B. Pg d Dg, 34, TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)

25 V. C Cb d Rc. W Gw Mk Fg T, A., Dx, M., O Sv, D., & P A. (2001). Fm v vby gp: mdgy y cc pc. Evm d Pg B: Pg d Dg, 28, Zg, X., Z, L., F, M, & Wg, S. (2008). Ex d Appc Spc Syx A C Sdy Ub Tc Nwk Opmzg Bjg. I: Pcdg Cc: Pw Ecc d Ig Tp Sym PEITS '08, IMAGE SOURCES Fg. 1: Gg E Fg. 2: Ad p I S.p. Fg. 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10: bd by AUTHOR S PROFILE V C c Tw Pg Uvy P, c 1996 V C c Ub Pg Sc Egg Uvy P. H m d d y b m, md cg dvpm d dcc m mpgy d c ccy TMA J Ld U Mby d Evm 1 (2017)