摘 要 关键词 作 者 农村人口老龄化程度测定

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1 ,,,,, ;,;, ;, (,1999 ;,2000 ;,2005 ;,2004 ;,1999),, (, 2000 ;,2005 ;,2000) ; (,2005 ;,2002 ;,2006),,,,, () 1. : = l p 100 % (1) (1),l, p 41

2 : = l/ p L / P (2),L, P 1,;, (),, Rogers Woodward (1992),,,p ( t) (65 + ) t 65, n 65 p ( t + n) (65 + ) : p t + n (65 + ) = e nr (65 + ) p ( t) (65 + ) (3), r(65 + ) 65,: r(65 + ) = 1 n ln p( t + n) (65 + ) p ( t) (65 + ) (3) (4),i I ( t) (65 + ) : I ( t + n) (65 + ) = e nta (65 + ) i I ( t) (65 + ) (5) (5), TA i (65 + ) Rogers Woodward, (5) : TA i (65 + ) = 1 n ln p( t + n) i (65 + ) - i (65 + ) p ( t) p ( t) (2) (4) 1 n ln p( t + n) i (0 + ) = i (0 + ri (65 + ) - ri (0 + ) (6) ), p ( i t) (0 + ) i, p ( t + i n) (0 + ) n i, p ( i t) (65 + ) i 65, p ( t + i n) (65 + ) n i 65, ri (0 + ) i, ri (65 + ) i 65 (6),TA i (65 + ) i,, TA i (65 + ) TA i (65 + ), ; TA i (65 + ) > 0, ;TA i (65 + ) = 0, ;TA i (65 + ) < 0, () 2000,,,, , Excel,

3 ,,2010,, Arc GIS, () 1990, (8. 18 %) (7. 02 %) ; ; 2000,( %) (8. 43 %), 7 % 15, ; ;( 1) ,2010 6, ( 2), : ( ) (),, 3, 1990 :, ;, , 2010 : ,, 43

4 () 1990, TA i (65 + ) ( 4),, 4 :, ;,;,, (4. 33 %) ; 3 %, (2. 78 %) 2 % ;1 %2 %,,1. 06 %,, (),,, 8 : x ( %) ; x2 ( %) ; x3 ( %) ; x4 ( %) ; x5 ( %) ; x6 () ; x7 () ; x8 () ; y 2000 ( %) 44

5 31, SPSS, ( 1 2) 1 x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x1 1 x x x x x x x , 8, 2, ( 0. 8), %, ( 3) 3,8 3,1, ; 2, ; 3, () 1.,, e1 e2 2 ( %) ( %) x x x x x x x x e1 e2 e3 e4 e3 e4 Pearson, : 3 = ; 33 y, 4 = ,

6 = 0. 01,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2.,,,,, (), x, y 2000,: y^ = x F = , ,99. 9 % x,,, 3., : (1),,,(2),,,,,, (3),,,,,,,, 46

7 ,;,, 2010,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, : 1. (1999) :,,1 2. (2000) :,,1 3. (2005) :, 4. (2004) :,,8 5. (1999) :,,1 6. (2000) :,,2 7. (2005) :,,6 8. (2000) :,,3 9. (2005) :,,2 10. (2002) :,,9 11. (2006) :, 12. (1993) :1990, 13. (2002) :2000, 14. (1994) : ( ), 15. Rogers, A.,J. A. Woodward (1992), Tempos of Elderly Age and Geographical Concentration. Prof essional Geog rap her,vol. 42,No. 3. ( : ) 47

8 Chinese Journal of Population Science A bi mont hly N o. 3 J une 1, 2007 ABSTRACTS Welfare Administration and Politics Zhou Hong 2 This article reviews the establishment of social welfare administrations, discusses the political actions and political processes within welfare states and analyses the characteristics and power of " social value". The article points out that a wel2 fare state is a state pursuing institutionalism. Its administration mechanism has changed the social and production relations of the state,internalized political conflicts,and handled political issues via policy making and policy procedures. Welfare politics is more policy2oriented politics. Social right,formed as the welfare states grew, served as a political force, which pressure helped balancing the power of business within the welfare state,and facilitated state interventions. However, the pressure from economic globalization is now challenging the traditional definition of the " social right". The article claims that for observing welfare state s operation and its future development, welfare politics is an important perspective. Determinants of the Participation of Rural Households in Non2agricultural Activities :The Case Study of a Mountainous Area in Hubei Province Zhu N ong Zhong S hui ying 11 Using survey data from Hubei province,this article examines the determinants of participation in non2agricultural activi2 ties in rural China. The econometric results show that the income gap serves as the major pulling factor that favors non2farm participation. Education,proximity to a city and developed commercial farming are crucial for rural households to participate in non2farm production ;while the land shortage or the labor surplus serves as the pushing factor to non2farm participation. Better quality of land reduces non2agricultural activity participation propensity. The income gap between households partici2 pating in non2farm activities and pure farming households is mainly determined by the differences in returns to the two kinds of economic activities. Analizing the Process and Predicting the Trend of China s Rural2urban Migration W ang Guohui M u Huaiz hong 22 Based on the assumption that rural2urban migration is households behavior to maximize expected net revenue via labor s rural2 urban reallocation under certain constraints, this paper establishes a model of rural2urban migration. This model classifies China s rural2urban migration into three types :one stage permanent rural2urban migration,two stage permanent rural2urban migration and one stage non2permanent rural2urban migration. Through calculating the four forms of net revenues and con2 straint conditions of three kinds of farmers,the paper forecasts the migration courses and development tendency of China s rural2urban migration. The Effects of Rural2urban Migration on Intergenerational Financial Transfer in China :A Gender2based Perspective Zhang Yexia J in X iaoyi Marcus W. Fel dman 31 Changes of family structure resulted from rural2urban migration may affect traditional family norms and in particular old2age support patterns of China s rural society. Using data from a survey conducted in Shenzhen,we examine the influences of married migrants gender to their financial supports to parents still living in rural hometowns. The analysis shows that mi2 grants have in general increased financial supports to their parents,but married female migrants are more likely to increase the financial supports to their husbands parent s. This result suggests that the traditional pattern of old2age support based on sons is still dominant,but out2migration of rural females tends to shrink the gender difference. Analysis on Regional Disparity and Contributing Factors of Rural Population Aging in China Yuan J un W u Dianting W u Zhengz heng 41 By quantitative methods measuring the degree,tempos and frequency of rural population aging,this article described the regional disparity of rural population aging with temporal and spatial perspectives,and revealed the internal mechanism for increasing the regional disparity. The results show obvious regional inequality of population aging in the countryside. The eastern China has entered into population aging,while the middle and western China will speed up the aging process of the rural population during the eleventh five2year plan period. The level of rural economic development and the degree of labor s education are major factors for regional inequality of population aging. 95